Call number:
9783319650586 (e-book)
Description / Table of Contents:
This edited collection of works by leading climate scientists and philosophers introduces readers to issues in the foundations, evaluation, confirmation, and application of climate models. It engages with important topics directly affecting public policy, including the role of doubt, the use of satellite data, and the robustness of models.
Climate Modelling provides an early and significant contribution to the burgeoning Philosophy of Climate Science field that will help to shape our understanding of these topics in both philosophy and the wider scientific context. It offers insight into the reasons we should believe what climate models say about the world but addresses the issues that inform how reliable and well-confirmed these models are.
This book will be of interest to students of climate science, philosophy of science, and of particular relevance to policy makers who depend on the models that forecast future states of the climate and ocean in order to make public policy decisions.
Type of Medium:
12
Pages:
1 Online-Ressource (xxxiii, 497 Seiten)
,
Illustrationen
ISBN:
9783319650586
,
978-3-319-65058-6
URL:
Ebook (access only within the AWI network)
DOI:
10.1007/978-3-319-65058-6
Language:
English
Note:
Contents
1 Introduction / Elisabeth A. Lloyd and Eric Winsberg
Part I Confirmation and Evidence
2 The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change: How DoWe Know We’re Not Wrong? / Naomi Oreskes
3 Satellite Data and Climate Models / Elisabeth A. Lloyd
4 Fact Sheet for “Consistency of Modeled and ObservedTemperature Trends in the Tropical Troposphere” / Ben Santer, Peter Thorne, Leo Haimberger, Karl Taylor, Tom Wigley, John Lanzante, Susan Solomon, Melissa Free, Peter Gleckler, Phil Jones, Tom Karl, Steve Klein, Carl Mears, Doug Nychka, Gavin Schmidt, Steve Sherwood, and Frank Wentz
5 Consistency of Modeled and Observed TemperatureTrends in the Tropical Troposphere / B.D. Santer, P.W. Thorne, L. Haimberger, K.E. Taylor, T.M.L. Wigley, J.R. Lanzante, S.Solomon, M. Free, P.J. Gleckler, P.D. Jones, T.R. Karl, S.A. Klein, C. Mears, D. Nychka, G.A. Schmidt, S.C. Sherwood, and F.J. Wentz
6 The Role of “Complex” Empiricism in the Debates About Satellite Data and Climate Models / Elisabeth A. Lloyd
7 Reconciling Climate Model/Data Discrepancies: The Case of the ‘Trees That Didn’t Bark’ / Michael E. Mann
8 Downscaling of Climate Information / L.O. Mearns, M. Bukovsky, S.C. Pryor, and V. Magaña
Part II Uncertainties and Robustness
9 The Significance of Robust Climate Projections / Wendy S. Parker
10 Building Trust, Removing Doubt? Robustness Analysis and Climate Modeling / Jay Odenbaugh
Part III Climate Models as Guides to Policy
11 Climate Model Confirmation: From Philosophy to Predicting Climate in the Real World / Reto Knutti
12 Uncertainty in Climate Science and Climate Policy / Jonathan Rougier and Michel Crucifix
13 Communicating Uncertainty to Policymakers: The Ineliminable Role of Values / Eric Winsberg
14 Modeling Climate Policies: The Social Cost of Carbon and Uncertainties in Climate Predictions / Mathias Frisch
15 Modeling Mitigation and Adaptation Policies to Predict Their Effectiveness: The Limits of Randomized Controlled Trials / Alexandre Marcellesi and Nancy Cartwright
Index
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