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  • 1
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    On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century, links to supplementary material (2015)
    PANGAEA
    In:  Supplement to: Hauck, Judith; Völker, Christoph; Wolf-Gladrow, Dieter A; Laufkötter, Charlotte; Vogt, Meike; Aumont, Olivier; Bopp, Laurent; Buitenhuis, Erik Theodoor; Doney, Scott C; Dunne, John; Gruber, Nicolas; Hashioka, Taketo; John, Jasmin; Le Quéré, Corinne; Lima, Ivan D; Nakano, Hideyuki; Séférian, Roland; Totterdell, Ian J (2015): On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 29(9), 1451-1470, https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GB005140
    Details
    Publication Date: 2023-01-13
    Description: We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the MAREMIP and CMIP5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement ona dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44° S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58° S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58° S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet, in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO 2 (aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44° S all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44° S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30° S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (~10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic CO2 uptake when integrated over a full annual cycle south of 30° S.
    Keywords: File content; Uniform resource locator/link to file; Uniform resource locator/link to image
    Type: Dataset
    Format: text/tab-separated-values, 27 data points
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    DATA PANGAEA
  • 2
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    Decadal trends in the ocean carbon sink (2019)
    In:  EPIC3Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 116(24), pp. 11646-11651, ISSN: 0027-8424
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-06-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev
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  • 3
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    On the Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century (2015)
    Wiley
    In:  EPIC3Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Wiley, 29(9), pp. 1451-1470, ISSN: 0886-6236
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-11-06
    Description: We use a suite of eight ocean biogeochemical/ecological general circulation models from the Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 archives to explore the relative roles of changes in winds (positive trend of Southern Annular Mode, SAM) and in warming- and freshening-driven trends of upper ocean stratification in altering export production and CO2 uptake in the Southern Ocean at the end of the 21st century. The investigated models simulate a broad range of responses to climate change, with no agreement on a dominance of either the SAM or the warming signal south of 44°S. In the southernmost zone, i.e., south of 58°S, they concur on an increase of biological export production, while between 44 and 58°S the models lack consensus on the sign of change in export. Yet in both regions, the models show an enhanced CO2 uptake during spring and summer. This is due to a larger CO2(aq) drawdown by the same amount of summer export production at a higher Revelle factor at the end of the 21st century. This strongly increases the importance of the biological carbon pump in the entire Southern Ocean. In the temperate zone, between 30 and 44°S, all models show a predominance of the warming signal and a nutrient-driven reduction of export production. As a consequence, the share of the regions south of 44°S to the total uptake of the Southern Ocean south of 30°S is projected to increase at the end of the 21st century from 47 to 66% with a commensurable decrease to the north. Despite this major reorganization of the meridional distribution of the major regions of uptake, the total uptake increases largely in line with the rising atmospheric CO2. Simulations with the MITgcm-REcoM2 model show that this is mostly driven by the strong increase of atmospheric CO2, with the climate-driven changes of natural CO2 exchange offsetting that trend only to a limited degree (∼10%) and with negligible impact of climate effects on anthropogenic CO2 uptake when integrated over a full annual cycle south of 30°S.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Article , isiRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/article
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  • 4
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    Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem (2016)
    COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
    In:  EPIC3Biogeosciences, COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 13, pp. 4023-4047, ISSN: 1726-4170
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-10-05
    Description: Accurate projections of marine particle export production (EP) are crucial for predicting the response of the marine carbon cycle to climate change, yet models show a wide range in both global EP and their responses to climate change. This is, in part, due to EP being the net result of a series of processes, starting with net primary production (NPP) in the sunlit upper ocean, followed by the formation of particulate organic matter and the subsequent sinking and remineralisation of these particles, with each of these processes responding differently to changes in environmental conditions. Here, we compare future projections in EP over the 21st century, generated by four marine ecosystem models under the high emission scenario Representative Concentra- tion Pathways (RCP) 8.5 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and determine the processes driving these changes. The models simulate small to modest decreases in global EP between −1 and −12 %. Models differ greatly with regard to the drivers causing these changes. Among them, the formation of particles is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. The removal of the sinking particles by remineralisation is simulated to increase in the low and intermediate latitudes in three models, driven by either warming-induced increases in remineralisation or slower particle sinking, and show insignificant changes in the remaining model. Changes in ecosystem structure, particularly the relative role of diatoms matters as well, as diatoms produce larger and denser particles that sink faster and are partly protected from remineralisation. Also this controlling factor is afflicted with high uncertainties, particularly since the models differ already substantially with regard to both the initial (present-day) distribution of diatoms (between 11–94 % in the Southern Ocean) and the diatom contribution to particle formation (0.6–3.8 times higher than their contribution to biomass). As a consequence, changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for EP changes in some models but of low significance in others. Observational and experimental constraints on ecosystem structure and how the fixed carbon is routed through the ecosystem to produce export production are urgently needed in order to improve current generation ecosystem models and their ability to project future changes.
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
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  • 5
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    A multi-model study on Southern Ocean CO2 uptake and the role of the biological carbon pump in the 21st century (2015)
    In:  EPIC3SOLAS Open Science Conference, Kiel, 2015-09-07-2015-09-11
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-09-25
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: Conference , notRev , info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject
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  • 6
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    Assessing the uncertainties of model estimates of primary productivity in the tropical Pacific Ocean (2009)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2009. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Marine Systems 76 (2009): 113-133, doi:10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.05.010.
    Description: Depth-integrated primary productivity (PP) estimates obtained from satellite ocean color based models (SatPPMs) and those generated from biogeochemical ocean general circulation models (BOGCMs) represent a key resource for biogeochemical and ecological studies at global as well as regional scales. Calibration and validation of these PP models are not straightforward, however, and comparative studies show large differences between model estimates. The goal of this paper is to compare PP estimates obtained from 30 different models (21 SatPPMs and 9 BOGCMs) to a tropical Pacific PP database consisting of ~1000 14C measurements spanning more than a decade (1983- 1996). Primary findings include: skill varied significantly between models, but performance was not a function of model complexity or type (i.e. SatPPM vs. BOGCM); nearly all models underestimated the observed variance of PP, specifically yielding too few low PP (〈 0.2 gC m-2d-2) values; more than half of the total root-mean-squared model-data differences associated with the satellite-based PP models might be accounted for by uncertainties in the input variables and/or the PP data; and the tropical Pacific database captures a broad scale shift from low biomass-normalized productivity in the 1980s to higher biomass-normalized productivity in the 1990s, which was not successfully captured by any of the models. This latter result suggests that interdecadal and global changes will be a significant challenge for both SatPPMs and BOGCMs. Finally, average root-mean-squared differences between in situ PP data on the equator at 140°W and PP estimates from the satellite-based productivity models were 58% lower than analogous values computed in a previous PP model comparison six years ago. The success of these types of comparison exercises is illustrated by the continual modification and improvement of the participating models and the resulting increase in model skill.
    Description: This research was supported by a grant from the National Aeronautics and Space Agency Ocean Biology and Biogeochemistry program (NNG06GA03G), as well as by numerous other grants to the various participating investigators
    Keywords: Primary production ; Modeling ; Remote sensing ; Satellite ocean color ; Statistical analysis ; Tropical Pacific Ocean (15°N to 15°S and 125°E to 95°W)
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 7
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    A three-dimensional, multinutrient, and size-structured ecosystem model for the North Atlantic (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2004. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 18 (2004): GB3019, doi:10.1029/2003GB002146.
    Description: We incorporate multinutrient and size-structured ecosystem dynamics into a three-dimensional ocean general circulation model for the North Atlantic. The model reproduces the magnitude and general spatial and temporal patterns in nutrients, chlorophyll and primary production seen in in situ (BATS, NABE, and OWSI) and satellite (SeaWiFS) data, showing substantial improvements over prior basin-scale simulations. Model skill is evaluated quantitatively against SeaWiFS data using a Taylor diagram approach. Model-data correlation R for the overall surface chlorophyll time-space distribution is ∼0.6, with comparable model and observed total variability. The agreement relative to satellite-based primary production is somewhat weaker (0.2 〈 R 〈 0.5). The simulations capture observed ecological characteristics, e.g., the dominance of picoplankton and episodic diatom blooms in the subtropics, nutrient-controlled plankton succession at higher latitudes, and associated seasonal/depth changes in new and regenerated production and particle export. In a sensitivity experiment that mimics behavior of simpler single-species models, removal of diatom silica limitation leads to major shifts in community structure and export and larger model-data errors similar to previous model studies. Model results also suggest that episodic diatom blooms at BATS may be related to interannual variations in the southward transport of nutrients, mainly SiO3, and plankton cells.
    Description: Support for this work was provided by NASA SeaWiFS grant W-19,223 and NSF JGOFS SMP grant 0222033.
    Keywords: Ecosystem model ; North Atlantic ; Multinutrient ; Size-structure ; Silica limitation
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 8
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    Contribution of ocean, fossil fuel, land biosphere, and biomass burning carbon fluxes to seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric CO2 (2010)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Geophysical Research 113 (2008): G01010, doi:10.1029/2007JG000408.
    Description: Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations was simulated using fluxes from fossil fuel, ocean and terrestrial biogeochemical models, and a tracer transport model with time-varying winds. The atmospheric CO2 variability resulting from these surface fluxes was compared to observations from 89 GLOBALVIEW monitoring stations. At northern hemisphere stations, the model simulations captured most of the observed seasonal cycle in atmospheric CO2, with the land tracer accounting for the majority of the signal. The ocean tracer was 3–6 months out of phase with the observed cycle at these stations and had a seasonal amplitude only ∼10% on average of observed. Model and observed interannual CO2 growth anomalies were only moderately well correlated in the northern hemisphere (R ∼ 0.4–0.8), and more poorly correlated in the southern hemisphere (R 〈 0.6). Land dominated the interannual variability (IAV) in the northern hemisphere, and biomass burning in particular accounted for much of the strong positive CO2 growth anomaly observed during the 1997–1998 El Niño event. The signals in atmospheric CO2 from the terrestrial biosphere extended throughout the southern hemisphere, but oceanic fluxes also exerted a strong influence there, accounting for roughly half of the IAV at many extratropical stations. However, the modeled ocean tracer was generally uncorrelated with observations in either hemisphere from 1979–2004, except during the weak El Niño/post-Pinatubo period of the early 1990s. During that time, model results suggested that the ocean may have accounted for 20–25% of the observed slowdown in the atmospheric CO2 growth rate.
    Description: We acknowledge the support of NASA grant NNG05GG30G and NSF grant ATM0628472.
    Keywords: Atmospheric CO2 ; Interannual variability ; Seasonal cycles ; Transport model
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 9
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    The impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on the uptake and accumulation of anthropogenic CO2 by North Atlantic Ocean mode waters (2011)
    American Geophysical Union
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3022, doi:10.1029/2010GB003892.
    Description: The North Atlantic Ocean accounts for about 25% of the global oceanic anthropogenic carbon sink. This basin experiences significant interannual variability primarily driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A suite of biogeochemical model simulations is used to analyze the impact of interannual variability on the uptake and storage of contemporary and anthropogenic carbon (Canthro) in the North Atlantic Ocean. Greater winter mixing during positive NAO years results in increased mode water formation and subsequent increases in subtropical and subpolar Canthro inventories. Our analysis suggests that changes in mode water Canthro inventories are primarily due to changes in water mass volumes driven by variations in water mass transformation rates rather than local air-sea CO2 exchange. This suggests that a significant portion of anthropogenic carbon found in the ocean interior may be derived from surface waters advected into water formation regions rather than from local gas exchange. Therefore, changes in climate modes, such as the NAO, may alter the residence time of anthropogenic carbon in the ocean by altering the rate of water mass transformation. In addition, interannual variability in Canthro storage increases the difficulty of Canthro detection and attribution through hydrographic observations, which are limited by sparse sampling of subsurface waters in time and space.
    Description: We would like to acknowledge funding from the NOAA Climate Program under the Office of Climate Observations and Global Carbon Cycle Program (NOAA‐NA07OAR4310098), NSF (OCE‐0623034), NCAR, the WHOI Ocean Climate Institute, a National Defense Science and Engineering Graduate Fellowship and an Environmental Protection Agency STAR graduate fellowship. NCAR is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.
    Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation ; Anthropogenic carbon ; Carbon cycle ; Climate change ; Global climate model ; Mode waters
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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  • 10
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    Comparing food web structures and dynamics across a suite of global marine ecosystem models (2015)
    Elsevier
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: © The Author(s), 2013. This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License. The definitive version was published in Ecological Modelling 261-262 (2013): 43–57, doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2013.04.006.
    Description: Dynamic Green Ocean Models (DGOMs) include different sets of Plankton Functional Types (PFTs) and equations, thus different interactions and food webs. Using four DGOMs (CCSM-BEC, PISCES, NEMURO and PlankTOM5) we explore how predator–prey interactions influence food web dynamics. Using each model's equations and biomass output, interaction strengths (direct and specific) were calculated and the role of zooplankton in modeled food webs examined. In CCSM-BEC the single size-class adaptive zooplankton preys on different phytoplankton groups according to prey availability and food preferences, resulting in a strong top-down control. In PISCES the micro- and meso-zooplankton groups compete for food resources, grazing phytoplankton depending on their availability in a mixture of bottom-up and top-down control. In NEMURO macrozooplankton controls the biomass of other zooplankton PFTs and defines the structure of the food web with a strong top-down control within the zooplankton. In PlankTOM5, competition and predation between micro- and meso-zooplankton along with strong preferences for nanophytoplankton and diatoms, respectively, leads to their mutual exclusion with a mixture of bottom-up and top-down control of the plankton community composition. In each model, the grazing pressure of the zooplankton PFTs and the way it is exerted on their preys may result in the food web dynamics and structure of the model to diverge from the one that was intended when designing the model. Our approach shows that the food web dynamics, in particular the strength of the predator–prey interactions, are driven by the choice of parameters and more specifically the food preferences. Consequently, our findings stress the importance of equation and parameter choice as they define interactions between PFTs and overall food web dynamics (competition, bottom-up or top-down effects). Also, the differences in the simulated food-webs between different models highlight the gap of knowledge for zooplankton rates and predator–prey interactions. In particular, concerted effort is needed to identify the key growth and loss parameters and interactions and quantify them with targeted laboratory experiments in order to bring our understanding of zooplankton at a similar level to phytoplankton.
    Description: This work was supported with funding from Palmer LTER (NSF OPP-0823101) and C-MORE (NSF EF-0424599).
    Keywords: Dynamic Green Ocean Model ; Plankton Functional Types ; Zooplankton ; Food web dynamic ; Predator–prey interactions
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
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