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  • 1
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    Remote SST forcing on Indian summer monsoon extreme years in AGCM experiments (2019)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: An ensemble of AMIP‐type experiments with prescribed interannual varying sea surface temperature (SST) and different initial conditions is used to study the relationship between Indian summer monsoon extreme conditions and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Based on the selection of extreme monsoon rainfall years ‘In Phase’ or ‘Out of Phase’ with respect to the observations, this study identifies specific SST and atmospheric circulation patterns responsible for the remote forcing on the monsoon. A clear common characteristic of externally forced extreme monsoon years is identified with an ENSO pattern having summer SST anomalies of the same sign in the tropical Pacific Ocean but also in the Indian and Atlantic tropical sectors. This finding assumes that the SST pattern in summer is enough to modulate the Walker circulation and consequently to suppress or enhance convection over South Asia, even if it does not evolve into an ENSO event. The analysis of the ‘Out of Phase’ cases (i.e. when the model reproduces a weak monsoon instead of a strong one, or the reverse) reveals how the model wrongly responds to the SST forcing, ignoring other processes like ocean–atmosphere coupling. Once ENSO is linearly removed the main source of remote forcing for strong (weak) monsoon characteristics over India is the tropical Atlantic with negative (positive) anomalies, and with weak anomalies of the same sign located in the south Indian Ocean. The results of the role of the forcing from the tropical Atlantic are also confirmed by a set of atmospheric model experiments where interannually varying SST is prescribed only in the Atlantic Ocean, while the rest of the SST is climatological.
    Description: Published
    Description: e160-e177
    Description: 4A. Oceanografia e clima
    Description: JCR Journal
    Repository Name: Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
    Type: article
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  • 2
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    A recipe for simulating the interannual variability of the Asian summer monsoon and its relation with ENSO (2007)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Springer for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Climate Dynamics 28 (2007): 441-460, doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0190-0.
    Description: This study investigates how accurately the interannual variability over the Indian Ocean basin and the relationship between the Indian summer monsoon and the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) can be simulated by different modelling strategies. With a hierarchy of models, from an atmospherical general circulation model (AGCM) forced by observed SST, to a coupled model with the ocean component limited to the tropical Pacific and Indian Oceans, the role of heat fluxes and of interactive coupling is analyzed. Whenever sea surface temperature anomalies in the Indian basin are created by the coupled model, the inverse relationship between the ENSO index and the Indian summer monsoon rainfall is recovered, and it is preserved if the atmospherical model is forced by the SSTs created by the coupled model. If the ocean model domain is limited to the Indian Ocean, changes in the Walker circulation over the Pacific during El Nino years induce a decrease of rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. However the observed correlation between the ENSO and the Indian Ocean Zonal Mode (IOZM) is not properly modelled and the two indices are not significantly correlated, independently on season. Whenever the ocean domain extends to the Pacific, and ENSO can impact both the atmospheric circulation and the ocean subsurface in the equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean, modelled precipitation patterns associated both to ENSO and to the IOZM closely resemble the observations.
    Description: The experiments described were performed as a contribution to the ENSEMBLES project funded by the European Commission’s 6th Framework Programme, contract number GOCE-CT-2003-505539.
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Preprint
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  • 3
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    Low-frequency variability of the Indian monsoon-ENSO relationship and the tropical Atlantic : the "Weakening" of the 1980s and 1990s (2010)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2022-05-25
    Description: Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2007. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Climate 20 (2007): 4255-4266, doi:10.1175/JCLI4254.1
    Description: The Indian monsoon–El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) relationship, according to which a drier than normal monsoon season precedes peak El Niño conditions, weakened significantly during the last two decades of the twentieth century. In this work an ensemble of integrations of an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to an ocean model in the Indian Basin and forced with observed sea surface temperatures (SSTs) elsewhere is used to investigate the causes of such a weakening. The observed interdecadal variability of the ENSO–monsoon relationship during the period 1950–99 is realistically simulated by the model and a dominant portion of the variability is associated with changes in the tropical Atlantic SSTs in boreal summer. In correspondence to ENSO, the tropical Atlantic SSTs display negative anomalies south of the equator in the last quarter of the twentieth century and weakly positive anomalies in the previous period. Those anomalies in turn produce heating anomalies, which excite a Rossby wave response in the Indian Ocean in both the model and the reanalysis data, impacting the time-mean monsoon circulation. The proposed mechanism of remote response of the Indian rainfall to tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures is further tested forcing the AGCM coupled to the ocean model in the Indian Basin with climatological SSTs in the Atlantic Ocean and observed anomalies elsewhere. In this second ensemble the ENSO–monsoon relationship is characterized by a stable and strong anticorrelation through the whole second half of the twentieth century.
    Description: The experiments in this paper were performed as a contribution to the ENSEMBLES project funded by the European Commission’s 6th Framework Programme, Contract GOCE-CT-2003-505539
    Keywords: ENSO ; Monsoons ; Atlantic ocean ; Regression analysis ; Sea surface temperature
    Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server
    Type: Article
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  • 4
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    Changes in the interannual variability of the tropical Pacific as a response to an equatorial Atlantic forcing (2012)
    Institut de Ciències del Mar de Barcelona, CSIC
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-09-12
    Description: Previous studies have reported that the tropical Atlantic has had an influence on tropical Pacific interannual variability since the 1970s. This variability is studied in the present work, using simulations from a coupled model in the Indo-Pacific but with observed sea surface temperature (SST) prescribed over the Atlantic. The interannual variability is compared with that from a control simulation in which climatological SSTs are prescribed over the Atlantic. Differences in the Pacific mean state and in its variability are found in the forced simulation as a response to a warming in the equatorial Atlantic, characterized by a cooler background state and an increase in the variability over the tropical Pacific. A striking result is that the principal modes of tropical Pacific SST interannual variability show significant differences before and after the 1970s, providing new evidence of the Atlantic influence on the Pacific Ocean. Significant cooling (warming) in the equatorial Atlantic could have caused anomalous winds in the central-easter Pacific during the summer since 1970s. The thermocline depth also seems to be altered, triggering the dynamical processes involved in the development of El Niño (La Niña) phenomenon in the following winter. An increase in frequency of Niño and Niña events favouring the Central Pacific (CP) ones is observed in the last three decades. Further analyses using coupled models are still necessary to help us to understand the causes of this inter-basin connection.
    Print ISSN: 0214-8358
    Electronic ISSN: 1886-8134
    Topics: Agriculture, Forestry, Horticulture, Fishery, Domestic Science, Nutrition
    Published by Institut de Ciències del Mar de Barcelona, CSIC
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  • 5
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    Dominant SST Mode in the Southern Hemisphere Extratropics and Its Influence on Atmospheric Circulation (2018)
    Springer
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-05-28
    Print ISSN: 0256-1530
    Electronic ISSN: 1861-9533
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Springer
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  • 6
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    Importance of Late Fall ENSO Teleconnection in the Euro-Atlantic Sector (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-07-01
    Description: Recent studies have indicated the importance of fall climate forcings and teleconnections in influencing the climate of the northern mid- to high latitudes. Here, we present some exploratory analyses using observational data and seasonal hindcasts, with the aim of highlighting the potential of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as a driver of climate variability during boreal late fall and early winter (November and December) in the North Atlantic–European sector, and motivating further research on this relatively unexplored topic. The atmospheric ENSO teleconnection in November and December is reminiscent of the east Atlantic pattern and distinct from the well-known arching extratropical Rossby wave train found from January to March. Temperature and precipitation over Europe in November are positively correlated with the Niño-3.4 index, which suggests a potentially important ENSO climate impact during late fall. In particular, the ENSO-related temperature anomaly extends over a much larger area than during the subsequent winter months. We discuss the implications of these results and pose some research questions.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 7
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    An Equatorial–Extratropical Dipole Structure of the Atlantic Niño (2016)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-09-27
    Description: Equatorial Atlantic variability is dominated by the Atlantic Niño peaking during the boreal summer. Studies have shown robust links of the Atlantic Niño to fluctuations of the St. Helena subtropical anticyclone and Benguela Niño events. Furthermore, the occurrence of opposite sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial and southwestern extratropical South Atlantic Ocean (SAO), also peaking in boreal summer, has recently been identified and termed the SAO dipole (SAOD). However, the extent to which and how the Atlantic Niño and SAOD are related remain unclear. Here, an analysis of historical observations reveals the Atlantic Niño as a possible intrinsic equatorial arm of the SAOD. Specifically, the observed sporadic equatorial warming characteristic of the Atlantic Niño (~0.4 K) is consistently linked to southwestern cooling (~−0.4 K) of the Atlantic Ocean during the boreal summer. Heat budget calculations show that the SAOD is largely driven by the surface net heat flux anomalies while ocean dynamics may be of secondary importance. Perturbations of the St. Helena anticyclone appear to be the dominant mechanism triggering the surface heat flux anomalies. A weakening of the anticyclone will tend to weaken the prevailing northeasterlies and enhance evaporative cooling over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean. In the equatorial region, the southeast trade winds weaken, thereby suppressing evaporation and leading to net surface warming. Thus, it is hypothesized that the wind–evaporation–SST feedback may be responsible for the growth of the SAOD events linking southern extratropics and equatorial Atlantic variability via surface net heat flux anomalies.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 8
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    Decadal Climate Variability and Predictability: Challenges and Opportunities (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-03-01
    Description: The study of Decadal Climate Variability (DCV) and Predictability is the interdisciplinary endeavor to characterize, understand, attribute, simulate, and predict the slow, multiyear variations of climate at global (e.g., the recent slowdown of global mean temperature rise in the early 2000s) and regional (e.g., decadal modulation of hurricane activity in the Atlantic, ongoing drought in California or in the Sahel in the 1970s–80s, etc.) scales. This study remains very challenging despite decades of research, extensive progress in climate system modeling, and improvements in the availability and coverage of a wide variety of observations. Considerable obstacles in applying this knowledge to actual predictions remain. This short article is a succint review paper about DCV and predictability. Based on listed issues and priorities, it also proposes a unifying theme referred to as “drivers of teleconnectivity” as a backbone to address and structure the core DCV research challenge. This framework goes beyond a preoccupation with changes in the global mean temperature and directly addresses the regional impacts of external (natural and anthropogenic) climate forcing and internal climate interactions; it thus explicitly deals with the societal needs for region-specific climate information. Such a framework also enables the integration of efforts in a large international research community toward advancing the observation, characterization, understanding, and prediction of DCV. Recommendations to make progress are provided as part of the contribution of the CLIVAR “DCVP Research Focus” group.
    Print ISSN: 0003-0007
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0477
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 9
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    The Effect of Wind Stress Anomalies and Location in Driving Pacific Subtropical Cells and Tropical Climate (2019)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019-02-14
    Description: The importance of subtropical and extratropical zonal wind stress anomalies on Pacific subtropical cell (STC) strength is assessed through several idealized and realistic numerical experiments with a global ocean model. Different zonal wind stress anomalies are employed, and their intensity is strengthened or weakened with respect to the climatological value throughout a suite of simulations. Subtropical strengthened (weakened) zonal wind stress anomalies result in increased (decreased) STC meridional mass and energy transport. When upwelling of subsurface water into the tropics is intensified (reduced), a distinct cold (warm) anomaly appears in the equatorial thermocline and up to the surface, resulting in significant tropical sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. The use of realistic wind stress anomalies also suggests a potential impact of midlatitude atmospheric modes of variability on tropical climate through STC dynamics. The remotely driven response is compared with a set of simulations where an equatorial zonal wind stress anomaly is imposed. A dynamically distinct response is achieved, whereby the equatorial thermocline adjusts to the wind stress anomaly, resulting in significant equatorial SST anomalies as in the remotely forced simulations but with no role for STCs. Significant anomalies in Indonesian Throughflow transport are generated only when equatorial wind stress anomalies are applied, leading to remarkable heat content anomalies in the Indian Ocean. Equatorial wind stress anomalies do not involve modifications of STC transport but could set up the appropriate initial conditions for a tropical–extratropical teleconnection involving Hadley cells, exciting an STC anomalous transport, which ultimately feeds back on the tropics.
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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  • 10
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    Modulation of the Meridional Structures of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool on the Response of the Hadley Circulation to Tropical SST (2018)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2018-11-01
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
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