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  • 1
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    Tsunami in Papua New Guinea was as intense as first thought (1999)
    In:  Eos, Trans., Am. Geophys. Un., Amsterdam, Univ. Tokyo, vol. 80, no. 9, pp. 101, 104, 105, pp. L14309, (ISSN: 1340-4202)
    Details
    Publication Date: 1999
    Keywords: Tsunami(s) ; Earthquake ; Earthquake hazard
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    BIBLIOGRAPHY SEISMOLOGY
  • 2
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    Water vapor intrusions into the High Arctic during winter (2011)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2011-06-29
    Description: The meridional transport of water vapor into the High Arctic, accompanied by dry enthalpy and clouds, impacts the surface radiative forcing. The evolution of one such moist intrusion over 9–11 February 2010 is presented. The event is analyzed using a unique blend of measurements including a new pan-Arctic retrieval of column water vapor from the Microwave Humidity Sounders, water vapor profiles from a Raman lidar and a ground-based microwave radiometer at the Polar Environment Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL), in Eureka (80°N, 86°W), on Ellesmere Island in the Canadian High Arctic. A radiation model reveals the intrusion is associated with a 17 W m−2 average increase in downwelling longwave irradiance. Optically thin clouds, as observed by the lidar, contribute a further 20 W m−2 to the downwelling longwave irradiance at their peak. Intrusion events are shown to be a regular occurrence in the Arctic winter with implications for the understanding of the mechanisms driving Arctic Amplification.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 3
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    Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and approximate Bayesian computation: What's the connection? (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-12-20
    Description: There has been a recent debate in the hydrological community about the relative merits of the informal generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach to uncertainty assessment in hydrological modeling versus formal probabilistic approaches. Some recent literature has suggested that the methods can give similar results in practice when properly applied. In this note, we show that the connection between formal Bayes and GLUE is not merely operational but goes deeper, with GLUE corresponding to a certain approximate Bayesian procedure even when the “generalized likelihood” is not a true likelihood. The connection we describe relates to recent approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods originating in genetics. ABC algorithms involve the use of a kernel function, and the generalized likelihood in GLUE can be thought of as relating to this kernel function rather than to the model likelihood. Two interpretations of GLUE emerge, one as a computational approximation to a Bayes procedure for a certain “error-free” model and the second as an exact Bayes procedure for a perturbation of that model in which the truncation of the generalized likelihood in GLUE plays a role. The intent of this study is to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas regarding GLUE and ABC in hydrologic applications. The connection we outline suggests the possibility of combining a formal likelihood with a kernel based on a generalized likelihood within the ABC framework and also allows advanced ABC computational methods to be used in GLUE applications. The model-based interpretation of GLUE may also be helpful in partially illuminating the implicit assumptions in different choices of generalized likelihood.
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 4
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    Ecohydrologic Error Models for Improved Bayesian Inference in Remotely Sensed Catchments (2019)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Abstract Leaf area index (LAI) is an important vegetation indicator widely used for simulating vegetation dynamics and quantifying biomass production. Spatial and temporal variability of LAI are often characterized using satellite remote sensing products. However, these types of satellite products often have relatively low quality when compared to in situ measurements. This work presents an approach for characterizing Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer LAI observation errors in a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer quality flags data. We introduce a novel ecohydrologic error model, which partitions observation and model residual error according to the estimated retrieval uncertainty of LAI and the quality flags for each pixel. We examine our approach in two study catchments in Australia with varying degrees of good and poor quality satellite LAI data. Results show improved LAI predictions and less model residual error for both catchments when accounting for satellite observational uncertainties in a Bayesian framework.
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 5
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    Properties of Sarychev sulphate aerosols over the Arctic (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-02-18
    Description: Aerosols from the Sarychev Peak volcano entered the Arctic region less than a week after the strongest SO2 eruption on June 15 and 16, 2009 and had, by the first week in July, spread out over the entire Arctic region. These predominantly stratospheric aerosols were determined to be sub-micron in size and inferred to be composed of sulphates produced from the condensation of SO2 gases emitted during the eruption. Average (500 nm) Sarychev-induced stratospheric optical depths (SOD) over the Polar Environmental Atmospheric Research Laboratory (PEARL) at Eureka (Nunavut, Canada) were found to be between 0.03 and 0.05 during the months of July and August, 2009. This estimate, derived from sunphotometry and integrated lidar backscatter profiles was consistent with averages derived from lidar estimates over Ny-Ålesund (Spitsbergen). The Sarychev SOD e-folding time at Eureka, deduced from lidar profiles, was found to be approximately 4 months relative to a regression start date of July 27. These profiles initially revealed the presence of multiple Sarychev plumes between the tropopause and about 17 km altitude. After about two months, the complex vertical plume structures had collapsed into fewer, more homogeneous plumes located near the tropopause. It was found that the noisy character of daytime backscatter returns induced an artifactual minimum in the temporal, pan-Arctic, CALIOP SOD response to Sarychev sulphates. A depolarization ratio discrimination criterion was used to separate the CALIOP stratospheric layer class into a low depolarization subclass which was more representative of Sarychev sulphates. Post-SAT (post Sarychev Arrival Time) retrievals of the fine mode effective radius (reff,f) and the logarithmic standard deviation for two Eureka sites and Thule (Greenland) were all close to 0.25 μm and 1.6 respectively. The stratospheric analogue to the columnar reff,f average was estimated to be reff,f(+) = 0.29 μm for Eureka data. Stratospheric, Raman lidar retrievals at Ny-Ålesund, yielded a post-SAT average of reff,f(+) = 0.27 μm. These results are ∼50% larger than the background stratospheric-aerosol value. They are also about a factor of two larger than modeling values used in recent publications or about a factor of five larger in terms of (per particle) backscatter cross section.
    Print ISSN: 0148-0227
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 6
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    Australian tropical cyclone activity lower than at any time over the past 550-1,500 years (2014)
    Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2014-01-31
    Description: The assessment of changes in tropical cyclone activity within the context of anthropogenically influenced climate change has been limited by the short temporal resolution of the instrumental tropical cyclone record (less than 50 years). Furthermore, controversy exists regarding the robustness of the observational record, especially before 1990. Here we show, on the basis of a new tropical cyclone activity index (CAI), that the present low levels of storm activity on the mid west and northeast coasts of Australia are unprecedented over the past 550 to 1,500 years. The CAI allows for a direct comparison between the modern instrumental record and long-term palaeotempest (prehistoric tropical cyclone) records derived from the (18)O/(16)O ratio of seasonally accreting carbonate layers of actively growing stalagmites. Our results reveal a repeated multicentennial cycle of tropical cyclone activity, the most recent of which commenced around AD 1700. The present cycle includes a sharp decrease in activity after 1960 in Western Australia. This is in contrast to the increasing frequency and destructiveness of Northern Hemisphere tropical cyclones since 1970 in the Atlantic Ocean and the western North Pacific Ocean. Other studies project a decrease in the frequency of tropical cyclones towards the end of the twenty-first century in the southwest Pacific, southern Indian and Australian regions. Our results, although based on a limited record, suggest that this may be occurring much earlier than expected.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Haig, Jordahna -- Nott, Jonathan -- Reichart, Gert-Jan -- England -- Nature. 2014 Jan 30;505(7485):667-71. doi: 10.1038/nature12882.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Earth and Environmental Sciences, James Cook University, Cairns, Queensland 4870, Australia. ; 1] Department of Geochemistry, Utrecht University, Utrecht 3508 TA, The Netherlands [2] Geology Department, Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Den Hoorn (Texel) 1797 SZ, The Netherlands.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/24476890" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
    Keywords: Atlantic Ocean ; Australia ; Carbon Isotopes ; Carbonates/analysis/chemistry ; Cyclonic Storms/*statistics & numerical data ; Global Warming/statistics & numerical data ; History, 15th Century ; History, 16th Century ; History, 17th Century ; History, 18th Century ; History, 19th Century ; History, 20th Century ; History, 21st Century ; History, Ancient ; History, Medieval ; Human Activities ; Oxygen Isotopes ; Pacific Ocean ; Rain ; Seasons ; *Tropical Climate
    Print ISSN: 0028-0836
    Electronic ISSN: 1476-4687
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Nature Publishing Group (NPG)
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  • 7
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    Structural and hydrodynamic properties of an intrinsically disordered region of a germ cell-specific protein on phase separation [Biophysics and Computational Biology] (2017)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2017-09-27
    Description: Membrane encapsulation is frequently used by the cell to sequester biomolecules and compartmentalize their function. Cells also concentrate molecules into phase-separated protein or protein/nucleic acid “membraneless organelles” that regulate a host of biochemical processes. Here, we use solution NMR spectroscopy to study phase-separated droplets formed from the intrinsically disordered N-terminal...
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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  • 8
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    Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) and approximate Bayesian computation: What's the connection? (2013)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2013-01-06
    Description: [1]  There has been a recent debate in the hydrological community about the relative merits of the informal generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) approach to uncertainty assessment in hydrological modeling versus formal probabilistic approaches. Some recent literature has suggested that the methods can give similar results in practice when properly applied. In this note, we show that the connection between formal Bayes and GLUE is not merely operational but goes deeper, with GLUE corresponding to a certain approximate Bayesian procedure even when the “generalized likelihood” is not a true likelihood. The connection we describe relates to recent approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods originating in genetics. ABC algorithms involve the use of a kernel function, and the generalized likelihood in GLUE can be thought of as relating to this kernel function rather than to the model likelihood. Two interpretations of GLUE emerge, one as a computational approximation to a Bayes procedure for a certain “error-free” model and the second as an exact Bayes procedure for a perturbation of that model in which the truncation of the generalized likelihood in GLUE plays a role. The intent of this study is to encourage cross-fertilization of ideas regarding GLUE and ABC in hydrologic applications. The connection we outline suggests the possibility of combining a formal likelihood with a kernel based on a generalized likelihood within the ABC framework and also allows advanced ABC computational methods to be used in GLUE applications. The model-based interpretation of GLUE may also be helpful in partially illuminating the implicit assumptions in different choices of generalized likelihood.
    Print ISSN: 0043-1397
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-7973
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 9
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    Rapid Cycles of Episodic Adjustment: Understanding the Holocene fluvial archive of the Daintree River of Northeastern Australia (2015)
    Sage
    In: Holocene
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-07-03
    Description: The dramatic decline in the quality of coral reef cover of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) over recent decades has resulted in targeted research to better understand the dynamics of sedimentary sources within river systems of Northeastern Australia. European land-use practices are thought to have increased sediment yields to the GBR lagoon by 5–10 times, yet there is a poor understanding of the pre-1850 sediment dynamics. This study presents the first detailed alluvial chronology of the spatial and temporal responses of fluvial systems in the Wet Tropics of Northeastern Australia over the late Holocene. Valley fill sequences of the Daintree River, one of the least disturbed catchments draining to the GBR lagoon, are examined to investigate the significance of floodplain dynamics in sedimentary process. An optically stimulated luminescence chronology combined with a detailed sedimentary analysis suggests that floodplain stripping is a major, and hitherto unrecognised, source of sediment. Furthermore, rates of floodplain accretion are far greater than has been previously estimated from sediment modelling for wet tropical catchments. Spatial analysis of the topographical relationships between floodplain morphological units suggests that a total of 178,516 ton/ha of sediment has been stripped from three small confined floodplain reaches between 1038 ± 215 and 99 ± 10 years. Evidence suggests that these erosion events are followed by phases of rapid accretion with an average depositional rate of 3.87 ± 0.92 cm/yr between 572 ± 74 and 51 ± 12 years across the study area. The floodplain appears to be in a constant state of disequilibrium, experiencing spatially discontinuous phases of erosion and aggradation resulting in much higher volumes of sediment being redistributed within the catchment than previously considered. The unpredictable nature of these regimes and the shear volume of sediment mobilised poses significant challenges in managing sediment sources to the GBR lagoon.
    Print ISSN: 0959-6836
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-0911
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Sage
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  • 10
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    Identifying mud flood layers in stalagmites [Physical Sciences] (2015)
    National Academy of Sciences
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-08-26
    Description: Denniston et al. (1) provide an important contribution to the prehistoric record of rainfall and tropical cyclones (TCs) in northwest Australia. The authors identify mud layers within limestone stalagmites as evidence of cave flood events and associate these with the passage of TCs. There is little doubt that the prominent...
    Keywords: Letters
    Print ISSN: 0027-8424
    Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490
    Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General
    Published by National Academy of Sciences
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