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  • 1
    Monograph available for loan
    Monograph available for loan
    The global circulation of the atmosphere : [outgrowth of a three-day conference held at the California Institute of Technology in Pasadena, California, in November 2004] (2007)
    Princeton [u.a.] : Princeton Univ. Press
    Details Availability
    Call number: PIK N 456-09-0178
    Description / Table of Contents: Contents: Progress and problems in large-scale atmospheric dynamics ; Theories of baroclinic adjustment and eddy equilibration ; The thermal stratification of the extratropical troposphere ; Storm track dynamics ; Eddy-mediated interactions between low latitudes and the extratropics ; On the relative humidity of the atmosphere ; Quasi-equilibrium dynamics of the tropical atmosphere ; Simple models of ensemble-averaged tropical precipitation and surface wind, given the sea surface temperature ; Dynamical constraints on monsoon circulations , Moist dynamics of tropical convection zones in monsoons, teleconnections, and global warming ; Challenges in numerical modeling of tropical circulations ; Challenges to our understanding of the general circulation: abrupt climate change
    Type of Medium: Monograph available for loan
    Pages: XII, 385 S. : Ill., graph. Darst.
    ISBN: 9780691121819
    Location: A 18 - must be ordered
    Branch Library: PIK Library
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  • 2
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    [Special Issue Review] Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity (2016)
    American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    In: Science
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-07-15
    Description: Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity. We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas–driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities. Authors: Adam H. Sobel, Suzana J. Camargo, Timothy M. Hall, Chia-Ying Lee, Michael K. Tippett, Allison A. Wing
    Print ISSN: 0036-8075
    Electronic ISSN: 1095-9203
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Geosciences , Computer Science , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
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  • 3
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    Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2 (2016)
    Co-Action Publishing
    In: Tellus A
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-07-26
    Description: The authors describe the characteristics of tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the GISS general circulation ModelE2 with a horizontal resolution 1°×1°. Four model simulations are analysed. In the first, the model is forced with sea surface temperature (SST) from the recent historical climatology. The other three have different idealised climate change simulations, namely (1) a uniform increase of SST by 2 degrees, (2) doubling of the CO 2 concentration and (3) a combination of the two. These simulations were performed as part of the US Climate Variability and Predictability Program Hurricane Working Group. Diagnostics of standard measures of TC activity are computed from the recent historical climatological SST simulation and compared with the same measures computed from observations. The changes in TC activity in the three idealised climate change simulations, by comparison with that in the historical climatological SST simulation, are also described. Similar to previous results in the literature, the changes in TC frequency in the simulation with a doubling CO 2 and an increase in SST are approximately the linear sum of the TC frequency in the other two simulations. However, in contrast with previous results, in these simulations the effects of CO 2 and SST on TC frequency oppose each other. Large-scale environmental variables associated with TC activity are then analysed for the present and future simulations. Model biases in the large-scale fields are identified through a comparison with ERA-Interim reanalysis. Changes in the environmental fields in the future climate simulations are shown and their association with changes in TC activity discussed. Keywords: Hurricanes, global climate model, climate change (Published: 25 July 2016) Citation: Tellus A 2016, 68 , 31494, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.31494
    Print ISSN: 0280-6495
    Electronic ISSN: 1600-0870
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Co-Action Publishing on behalf of The International Meteorological Institute in Stockholm.
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  • 4
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    Forcings and feedbacks on convection in the 2010 Pakistan flood: Modeling extreme precipitation with interactive large-scale ascent (2016)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-06-10
    Description: Extratropical extreme precipitation events are usually associated with large-scale flow disturbances, strong ascent and large latent heat release. The causal relationships between these factors are often not obvious, however, and the roles of different physical processes in producing the extreme precipitation event can be difficult to disentangle. Here, we examine the large-scale forcings and convective heating feedback in the precipitation events which caused the 2010 Pakistan flood within the Column Quasi-Geostrophic framework. A cloud-revolving model (CRM) is forced with large-scale forcings (other than large-scale vertical motion) computed from the quasi-geostrophic omega equation using input data from a reanalysis data set, and the large-scale vertical motion is diagnosed interactively with the simulated convection. Numerical results show that the positive feedback of convective heating to large-scale dynamics is essential in amplifying the precipitation intensity to the observed values. Orographic lifting is the most important dynamic forcing in both events, while differential potential vorticity advection also contributes to the triggering of the first event. Horizontal moisture advection modulates the extreme events mainly by setting the environmental humidity, which modulates the amplitude of the convection's response to the dynamic forcings. When the CRM is replaced by either a single-column model (SCM) with parameterized convection or a dry model with a reduced effective static stability, the model results show substantial discrepancies compared with reanalysis data. The reasons for these discrepancies are examined, and the implications for global models and theoretical models are discussed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Electronic ISSN: 1942-2466
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 5
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    An empirical model relating U.S. monthly hail occurrence to large-scale meteorological environment (2015)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2015-01-10
    Description: An empirical model relating monthly hail occurrence to the large-scale environment has been developed and tested for the United States (U.S.). Monthly hail occurrence for each 1° × 1° grid box is defined as the number of hail events that occur there during a month; a hail event consists of a three-hour period with at least one report of hail larger than one inch. The model is derived using climatological annual cycle data only. Environmental variables are taken from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR; 1979-2012). The model includes four environmental variables: convective precipitation, convective available potential energy, storm relative helicity and mean surface to 90hPa specific humidity. The model differs in its choice of variables and their relative weighting from existing severe weather indices. The model realistically matches the annual cycle of hail occurrence both regionally and for the contiguous U.S. (CONUS). The modeled spatial distribution is also consistent with the observed hail climatology. However, the westward shift of maximum hail frequency during the summer months is delayed in the model relative to observations, and the model has a lower frequency of hail just east of the Rocky mountains compared to observations. Year-to-year variability provides an independent test of the model. On monthly and annual timescales, the model reproduces observed hail frequencies. Overall model trends are small compared to observed changes, suggesting further analysis is necessary to differentiate between physical and non-physical trends. The empirical hail model provides a new tool for exploration of connections between large-scale climate and severe weather. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
    Electronic ISSN: 1942-2466
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 6
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    Comparison of a single-column model in weak temperature gradient mode to its parent AGCM (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-04-15
    Description: A single-column model (SCM) version of the HadGEM1 is run in weak temperature gradient (WTG) mode, assuming a free-tropospheric temperature profile obtained from the same single-column model in radiative–convective equilibrium (RCE) over a sea-surface temperature (SST) of 301 K. The resulting quasi-steady solutions are compared with climate statistics from time-dependent solutions of the full three-dimensional (3D) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) sharing the same physics, with the aim of evaluating the strengths and weaknesses of the WTG parametrization of large-scale dynamics. Making some allowance for unavoidable differences between quasi-steady 1D solutions and more fully transient 3D solutions, the two models produce grossly similar sensitivities of precipitation and relative humidity to local SST. The greatest differences arise from the relatively sharp transition in the SCM between very dry and rainy states as SST is varied, while the GCM statistics vary more smoothly with SST. When a relaxation on the moisture field towards a target profile—a crude parametrization of horizontal moisture advection—is included in the SCM, this difference is reduced. The SCM is then able to produce some convection at low SST, and the increases in humidity and precipitation with SST become more gradual, as in the GCM. The RCE temperature profile used to obtain these results is colder in the upper troposphere and thus more unstable to deep convection than is the climatological tropical profile from the GCM. When the latter is used in the SCM, the precipitation as a function of SST does not change greatly, but the convection becomes considerably shallower than that in either the GCM, or the SCM with the RCE temperature profile. We speculate that some of these differences may be due to the much greater transience in the GCM solutions compared to the SCM's quasi-steady states. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
    Print ISSN: 0035-9009
    Electronic ISSN: 1477-870X
    Topics: Geography , Physics
    Published by Wiley
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  • 7
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    Rapid intensification and the bimodal distribution of tropical cyclone intensity (2016)
    Springer Nature
    Details
    Publication Date: 2016-02-05
    Description: Article Tropical cyclones rarely achieve high intensities gradually. Here, the authors show that rapid intensification is relevant not only to short-term weather forecasting, but also to the relationship between tropical cyclones and climate. Nature Communications doi: 10.1038/ncomms10625 Authors: Chia-Ying Lee, Michael K. Tippett, Adam H. Sobel, Suzana J. Camargo
    Electronic ISSN: 2041-1723
    Topics: Biology , Chemistry and Pharmacology , Natural Sciences in General , Physics
    Published by Springer Nature
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  • 8
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    A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition Part II: Statistical Performance of the Cyclone Phase Space (2019)
    American Meteorological Society (AMS)
    Details
    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Journal of Climate, Ahead of Print. 〈br/〉
    Print ISSN: 0894-8755
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0442
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society (AMS)
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  • 9
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    Model Hierarchies for Understanding Atmospheric Circulation (2019)
    Wiley
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    Publication Date: 2019
    Description: Abstract In this review, we highlight the complementary relationship between simple and comprehensive models in addressing key scientific questions to describe Earth's atmospheric circulation. The systematic representation of models in steps, or hierarchies, connects our understanding from idealized systems to comprehensive models and ultimately the observed atmosphere. We define three interconnected principles that can be used to characterize the model hierarchies of the atmosphere. We explore the rich diversity within the governing equations in the dynamical hierarchy, the ability to isolate and understand atmospheric processes in the process hierarchy, and the importance of the physical domain and resolution in the hierarchy of scale. We center our discussion on the large‐scale circulation of the atmosphere and its interaction with clouds and convection, focusing on areas where simple models have had a significant impact. Our confidence in climate model projections of the future is based on our efforts to ground the climate predictions in fundamental physical understanding. This understanding is, in part, possible due to the hierarchies of idealized models that afford the simplicity required for understanding complex systems.
    Print ISSN: 8755-1209
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-9208
    Topics: Geosciences
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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  • 10
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    Association of U.S. tornado occurrence with monthly environmental parameters (2012)
    Wiley
    Details
    Publication Date: 2012-01-18
    Description: Monthly U.S. tornado numbers are here related to observation-based monthly averaged atmospheric parameters. Poisson regression is used to form an index which captures the climatological spatial distribution and seasonal variation of tornado occurrence, as well as year-to-year variability, and provides a framework for extended range forecasts of tornado activity. Computing the same index with predicted atmospheric parameters from a comprehensive forecast model gives some evidence of the predictability of monthly tornado activity.
    Print ISSN: 0094-8276
    Electronic ISSN: 1944-8007
    Topics: Geosciences , Physics
    Published by Wiley on behalf of American Geophysical Union (AGU).
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