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THE ROLE OF CARBON CYCLE OBSERVATIONS AND KNOWLEDGE IN CARBON MANAGEMENT (2003)

Dilling, Lisa ; Doney, Scott C. ; Edmonds, Jae ; [et al.]

Palo Alto, Calif. : Annual Reviews

Annual Review of Environment and Resources 28 (2003), S. 521-558

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ISSN: 1543-5938

Source: Annual Reviews Electronic Back Volume Collection 1932-2001ff

Topics: Energy, Environment Protection, Nuclear Power Engineering

Notes: Agriculture and industrial development have led to inadvertent changes in the natural carbon cycle. As a consequence, concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have increased in the atmosphere and may lead to changes in climate. The current challenge facing society is to develop options for future management of the carbon cycle. A variety of approaches has been suggested: direct reduction of emissions, deliberate manipulation of the natural carbon cycle to enhance sequestration, and capture and isolation of carbon from fossil fuel use. Policy development to date has laid out some of the general principles to which carbon management should adhere. These are summarized as: how much carbon is stored, by what means, and for how long. To successfully manage carbon for climate purposes requires increased understanding of carbon cycle dynamics and improvement in the scientific capabilities available for measurement as well as for policy needs. The specific needs for scientific information to underpin carbon cycle management decisions are not yet broadly known. A stronger dialogue between decision makers and scientists must be developed to foster improved application of scientific knowledge to decisions. This review focuses on the current knowledge of the carbon cycle, carbon measurement capabilities (with an emphasis on the continental scale) and the relevance of carbon cycle science to carbon sequestration goals.

Type of Medium: Electronic Resource

URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.energy.28.011503.163443

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Is the northern high-latitude land-based CO2 sink weakening? (2011)

Hayes, Daniel J. ; McGuire, A. David ; Kicklighter, David W. ; [et al.]

American Geophysical Union

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Publication Date: 2022-05-25

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2011. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 25 (2011): GB3018, doi:10.1029/2010GB003813.

Description: Studies indicate that, historically, terrestrial ecosystems of the northern high-latitude region may have been responsible for up to 60% of the global net land-based sink for atmospheric CO2. However, these regions have recently experienced remarkable modification of the major driving forces of the carbon cycle, including surface air temperature warming that is significantly greater than the global average and associated increases in the frequency and severity of disturbances. Whether Arctic tundra and boreal forest ecosystems will continue to sequester atmospheric CO2 in the face of these dramatic changes is unknown. Here we show the results of model simulations that estimate a 41 Tg C yr−1 sink in the boreal land regions from 1997 to 2006, which represents a 73% reduction in the strength of the sink estimated for previous decades in the late 20th century. Our results suggest that CO2 uptake by the region in previous decades may not be as strong as previously estimated. The recent decline in sink strength is the combined result of (1) weakening sinks due to warming-induced increases in soil organic matter decomposition and (2) strengthening sources from pyrogenic CO2 emissions as a result of the substantial area of boreal forest burned in wildfires across the region in recent years. Such changes create positive feedbacks to the climate system that accelerate global warming, putting further pressure on emission reductions to achieve atmospheric stabilization targets.

Description: This study was supported through grants provided as part of the Arctic System Science Program (NSF OPP‐ 0531047), the North American Carbon Program (NASA NNG05GD25G), and the Bonanza Creek Long‐Term Ecological Program (funded jointly by NSF grant DEB‐0423442 and USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station grant PNW01‐JV11261952‐231).

Keywords: Carbon cycle ; High-latitude ecosystems ; Modeling

Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server

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Role of carbon cycle observations and knowledge in carbon management (2005)

Dilling, Lisa ; Doney, Scott C. ; Edmonds, Jae ; [et al.]

Annual Reviews

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Publication Date: 2022-05-25

Description: Author Posting. © Annual Reviews, 2003. This article is posted here by permission of Annual Reviews for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Annual Review of Environment and Resources 28 (2003): 521-558, doi:10.1146/annurev.energy.28.011503.163443.

Description: Agriculture and industrial development have led to inadvertent changes in the natural carbon cycle. As a consequence, concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases have increased in the atmosphere and may lead to changes in climate. The current challenge facing society is to develop options for future management of the carbon cycle. A variety of approaches has been suggested: direct reduction of emissions, deliberate manipulation of the natural carbon cycle to enhance sequestration, and capture and isolation of carbon from fossil fuel use. Policy development to date has laid out some of the general principles to which carbon management should adhere. These are summarized as: how much carbon is stored, by what means, and for how long. To successfully manage carbon for climate purposes requires increased understanding of carbon cycle dynamics and improvement in the scientific capabilities available for measurement as well as for policy needs. The specific needs for scientific information to underpin carbon cycle management decisions are not yet broadly known. A stronger dialogue between decision makers and scientists must be developed to foster improved application of scientific knowledge to decisions. This review focuses on the current knowledge of the carbon cycle, carbon measurement capabilities (with an emphasis on the continental scale) and the relevance of carbon cycle science to carbon sequestration goals.

Description: The National Center for Atmospheric Research is supported by the National Science Foundation.

Keywords: Carbon sequestration ; Measurement techniques ; Climate ; Kyoto protocol

Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server

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Interannual variations in continental-scale net carbon exchange and sensitivity to observing networks estimated from atmospheric CO2 inversions for the period 1980 to 2005 (2010)

Gurney, Kevin R. ; Baker, David F. ; Rayner, Peter ; [et al.]

American Geophysical Union

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Publication Date: 2022-05-26

Description: Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Global Biogeochemical Cycles 22 (2008): GB3025, doi:10.1029/2007GB003082.

Description: Interannually varying net carbon exchange fluxes from the TransCom 3 Level 2 Atmospheric Inversion Intercomparison Experiment are presented for the 1980 to 2005 time period. The fluxes represent the model mean, net carbon exchange for 11 land and 11 ocean regions after subtraction of fossil fuel CO2 emissions. Both aggregated regional totals and the individual regional estimates are accompanied by a model uncertainty and model spread. We find that interannual variability is larger on the land than the ocean, with total land exchange correlated to the timing of both El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) as well as the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo. The post-Pinatubo negative flux anomaly is evident across much of the tropical and northern extratropical land regions. In the oceans, the tropics tend to exhibit the greatest level of interannual variability, while on land, the interannual variability is slightly greater in the tropics and northern extratropics. The interannual variation in carbon flux estimates aggregated by land and ocean across latitudinal bands remains consistent across eight different CO2 observing networks. The interannual variation in carbon flux estimates for individual flux regions remains mostly consistent across the individual observing networks. At all scales, there is considerable consistency in the interannual variations among the 13 participating model groups. Finally, consistent with other studies using different techniques, we find a considerable positive net carbon flux anomaly in the tropical land during the period of the large ENSO in 1997/1998 which is evident in the Tropical Asia, Temperate Asia, Northern African, and Southern Africa land regions. Negative anomalies are estimated for the East Pacific Ocean and South Pacific Ocean regions. Earlier ENSO events of the 1980s are most evident in southern land positive flux anomalies.

Keywords: Carbon cycle ; Atmospheric inversion ; Interannual variability

Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server

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The terrestrial biosphere as a net source of greenhouse gases to the atmosphere (2016)

Tian, Hanqin ; Lu, Chaoqun ; Ciais, Philippe ; [et al.]

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Publication Date: 2022-05-26

Description: Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2015. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Nature Publishing Group for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Nature 531 (2016): 225-228, doi:10.1038/nature16946.

Description: The terrestrial biosphere can release or absorb the greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) and therefore plays an important role in regulating atmospheric composition and climate1. Anthropogenic activities such as land use change, agricultural and waste management have altered terrestrial biogenic greenhouse gas fluxes and the resulting increases in methane and nitrous oxide emissions in particular can contribute to climate warming2,3. The terrestrial biogenic fluxes of individual greenhouse gases have been studied extensively4-6, but the net biogenic greenhouse gas balance as a result of anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system remains uncertain. Here we use bottom-up (BU: e.g., inventory, statistical extrapolation of local flux measurements, process-based modeling) and top-down (TD: atmospheric inversions) approaches to quantify the global net biogenic greenhouse gas balance between 1981-2010 as a result of anthropogenic activities and its effect on the climate system. We find that the cumulative warming capacity of concurrent biogenic CH4 and N2O emissions is about a factor of 2 larger than the cooling effect resulting from the global land CO2 uptake in the 2000s. This results in a net positive cumulative impact of the three GHGs on the planetary energy budget, with a best estimate of 3.9±3.8 Pg CO2 eq/yr (TD) and 5.4±4.8 Pg CO2 eq/yr (BU) based on the GWP 100 metric (global warming potential on a 100-year time horizon). Our findings suggest that a reduction in agricultural CH4 and N2O emissions in particular in Southern Asia may help mitigate climate change.

Description: This research has been supported partially by National Aeronautics and 255 Space Administration (NASA) Grants (NNX08AL73G, NNX14AO73G, NNX10AU06G, NNX11AD47G, NNG04GM39C), National Science Foundation (NSF) Grants (CNH1210360; AGS 1243232; AGS-1243220). JGC was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Program. ES was supported by NOAA Climate Program Office (award # NA13OAR4310059). CRS was supported by NASA Grants (#NNX12AP74G, #NNX10AG01A, and #NNX11AO08A). KRG was supported by NSF CAREER (AGS-0846358). RGP was supported by NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Program AGAGE Grant (NNX11AF17G to MIT).

Description: 2016-09-09

Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server

Type: Preprint

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An analysis of the carbon balance of the Arctic Basin from 1997 to 2006 (2010)

McGuire, A. David ; Hayes, Daniel J. ; Kicklighter, David W. ; [et al.]

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Publication Date: 2022-05-26

Description: Author Posting. © The Authors, 2010. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of John Wiley & Sons for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Tellus B 62 (2010): 455-474, doi:10.1111/j.1600-0889.2010.00497.x.

Description: This study used several model-based tools to analyze the dynamics of the Arctic Basin between 1997 and 2006 as a linked system of land-ocean-atmosphere C exchange. The analysis estimates that terrestrial areas of the Arctic Basin lost 62.9 Tg C yr-1 and that the Arctic Ocean gained 94.1 Tg C yr-1. Arctic lands and oceans were a net CO2 sink of 108.9 Tg C yr-1, which is within the range of uncertainty in estimates from atmospheric inversions. Although both lands and oceans of the Arctic were estimated to be CO2 sinks, the land sink diminished in strength because of increased fire disturbance compared to previous decades, while the ocean sink increased in strength because of increased biological pump activity associated with reduced sea ice cover. Terrestrial areas of the Arctic were a net source of 41.5 Tg CH4 yr-1 that increased by 0.6 Tg CH4 yr-1 during the decade of analysis, a magnitude that is comparable with an atmospheric inversion of CH4. Because the radiative forcing of the estimated CH4 emissions is much greater than the CO2 sink, the analysis suggests that the Arctic Basin is a substantial net source of green house gas forcing to the climate system.

Description: This study was supported, in part, by the NSF Arctic System Science Program as part of the Arctic Carbon Cycle Synthesis Project (ARC-0531047, 0531082, 0531119, and 0554811).

Repository Name: Woods Hole Open Access Server

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Estimating US fossil fuel CO2emissions from measurements of14C in atmospheric CO2 (2020)

Basu, Sourish ; Lehman, Scott J. ; Miller, John B. ; [et al.]

National Academy of Sciences

In: PNAS - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020; 117(24): 13300-13307. Published 2020 Jun 01. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1919032117.

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Publication Date: 2020-06-01

Description: We report national scale estimates of CO2emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production in the United States based directly on atmospheric observations, using a dual-tracer inverse modeling framework and CO2andΔ14CO2measurements obtained primarily from the North American portion of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Global Greenhouse Gas Reference Network. The derived US national total for 2010 is 1,653 ± 30 TgC yr−1with an uncertainty (1σ) that takes into account random errors associated with atmospheric transport, atmospheric measurements, and specified prior CO2and14C fluxes. The atmosphere-derived estimate is significantly larger (〉3σ) than US national emissions for 2010 from three global inventories widely used for CO2accounting, even after adjustments for emissions that might be sensed by the atmospheric network, but which are not included in inventory totals. It is also larger (〉2σ) than a similarly adjusted total from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), but overlaps EPA’s reported upper 95% confidence limit. In contrast, the atmosphere-derived estimate is within1σof the adjusted 2010 annual total and nine of 12 adjusted monthly totals aggregated from the latest version of the high-resolution, US-specific “Vulcan” emission data product. Derived emissions appear to be robust to a range of assumed prior emissions and other parameters of the inversion framework. While we cannot rule out a possible bias from assumed prior Net Ecosystem Exchange over North America, we show that this can be overcome with additionalΔ14CO2measurements. These results indicate the strong potential for quantification of US emissions and their multiyear trends from atmospheric observations.

Print ISSN: 0027-8424

Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490

Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General

Published by National Academy of Sciences

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Long-term urban carbon dioxide observations reveal spatial and temporal dynamics related to urban characteristics and growth (2018)

Mitchell, Logan E. ; Lin, John C. ; Bowling, David R. ; [et al.]

National Academy of Sciences

In: PNAS - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2018; 115(12): 2912-2917. Published 2018 Mar 05. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1702393115.

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Publication Date: 2018-03-05

Description: Cities are concentrated areas of CO2 emissions and have become the foci of policies for mitigation actions. However, atmospheric measurement networks suitable for evaluating urban emissions over time are scarce. Here we present a unique long-term (decadal) record of CO2 mole fractions from five sites across Utah’s metropolitan Salt Lake Valley. We examine “excess” CO2 above background conditions resulting from local emissions and meteorological conditions. We ascribe CO2 trends to changes in emissions, since we did not find long-term trends in atmospheric mixing proxies. Three contrasting CO2 trends emerged across urban types: negative trends at a residential-industrial site, positive trends at a site surrounded by rapid suburban growth, and relatively constant CO2 over time at multiple sites in the established, residential, and commercial urban core. Analysis of population within the atmospheric footprints of the different sites reveals approximately equal increases in population influencing the observed CO2, implying a nonlinear relationship with CO2 emissions: Population growth in rural areas that experienced suburban development was associated with increasing emissions while population growth in the developed urban core was associated with stable emissions. Four state-of-the-art global-scale emission inventories also have a nonlinear relationship with population density across the city; however, in contrast to our observations, they all have nearly constant emissions over time. Our results indicate that decadal scale changes in urban CO2 emissions are detectable through monitoring networks and constitute a valuable approach to evaluate emission inventories and studies of urban carbon cycles.

Print ISSN: 0027-8424

Electronic ISSN: 1091-6490

Topics: Biology , Medicine , Natural Sciences in General