ALBERT

Description: We have developed a method to calculate the fractional distribution of CO2 across all of its component isotopologues based on measured δ13C and δ18O values. The fractional distribution can be used with known total CO2 to calculate the amount of substance fraction (mole fraction) of each component isotopologue in air individually. The technique is applicable to any molecule where isotopologue-specific values are desired. We used it with a new CO2 calibration system to account for isotopic differences among the primary CO2 standards that define the WMO X2007 CO2-in-air calibration scale and between the primary standards and standards in subsequent levels of the calibration hierarchy. The new calibration system uses multiple laser spectroscopic techniques to measure mole fractions of the three major CO2 isotopologues (16O12C16O, 16O13C16O, and 16O12C18O) individually. The three measured values are then combined into total CO2 (accounting for the rare unmeasured isotopologues), δ13C, and δ18O values. The new calibration system significantly improves our ability to transfer the WMO CO2 calibration scale with low uncertainty through our role as the World Meteorological Organization Global Atmosphere Watch Central Calibration Laboratory for CO2. Our current estimates for reproducibility of the new calibration system are ±0.01 µmol mol−1 CO2, ±0.2 ‰ δ13C, and ±0.2 ‰ δ18O, all at 68 % confidence interval (CI).

Description: Long-term monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is key for a better understanding of the processes involved in the carbon cycle that have a major impact on further climate change. Keeping track of large-scale emissions and removals (sources and sinks) of CO2 requires very accurate measurements. They all have to be calibrated very carefully and have to be traceable to a common scale, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) CO2 X2007 scale, which is maintained by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) in Boulder, CO, USA. The international WMO GAW (Global Atmosphere Watch) program sets as compatibility goals for the required agreement between different methods and laboratories ±0.1 µmol mol−1 for the Northern Hemisphere and ±0.05 µmol mol−1 for the Southern Hemisphere. The reference gas mixtures used to pass down and distribute the scale are stored in high-pressure aluminum cylinders. It is crucial that the standards remain stable during their entire time of use. In this study the tested vertically positioned aluminum cylinders showed similar CO2 enrichment during low-flow conditions (0.3 L min−1), which are similar to flows often used for calibration gases in practical applications. The average CO2 enrichment was 0.090±0.009 µmol mol−1 as the cylinder was emptied from about 150 to 1 bar above atmosphere. However, it is important to note that the enrichment is not linear but follows Langmuir's adsorption–desorption model, where the CO2 enrichment is almost negligible at high pressures but much more pronounced at low pressures. When decanted at a higher rate of 5.0 L min−1 the enrichment becomes 0.22±0.05 µmol mol−1 for the same pressure drop. The higher enrichment is related to thermal diffusion and fractionation effects in the cylinder, which were also dependent on the cylinder's orientation and could even turn negative. However, the low amount of CO2 adsorbed on the cylinder wall and the fact that the main increase happens at low pressure lead to the conclusion that aluminum cylinders are suitable to store ambient CO2-in-dry-air mixtures provided they are not used below 20 bar. In cases where they are used in high-flow experiments that involve significant cylinder temperature changes, special attention has to be paid to possible fractionation effects.

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of our imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the higher fossil emissions and smaller SLAND for that year consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 % to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of Gross Domestic Product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. For 2017, initial data indicate an increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration of around 5.3 GtC (2.5 ppm), attributed to a combination of increasing emissions and receding El Niño conditions. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016; 2015b; 2015a; 2014; 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017.

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).

Description: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr−1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).

Description: No abstract available.

Description: To improve our understanding of the global carbon balance and its representation in terrestrial biosphere models we present here a first multi-species application of the CarbonTracker Data Assimilation System (CTDAS). The system's modular design allows for assimilating multiple atmospheric trace gases simultaneously to infer exchange fluxes at the Earth surface. In the prototype discussed here we interpret signals recorded in observed carbon dioxide (CO2) along with observed ratios of its stable isotopologues 13CO2/12CO2 (δ13C). The latter is in particular a valuable tracer to untangle CO2 exchange from land and oceans. Potentially, it can also be used as a proxy for continent-wide drought stress in plants, largely because the ratio of 13CO2 and 12CO2 molecules removed from the atmosphere by plants is dependent on moisture conditions. The multi-species CTDAS system varies the net exchange fluxes of both 13CO2 and CO2 in ocean and terrestrial biosphere models to create an ensemble of 13CO2 and CO2 fluxes that propagates through an atmospheric transport model. Based on differences between observed and simulated 13CO2 and CO2 mole fractions (and thus δ13C) our Bayesian minimization approach solves for weekly adjustments to both net fluxes and isotopic terrestrial discrimination that minimizes the difference between observed and estimated mole fractions. With this system we are able to estimate changes in terrestrial δ13C exchange on seasonal and continental scales in the Northern hemisphere where the observational network is most dense. Our results indicate a decrease in stomatal conductance on a continent-wide scale during a severe drought. These changes could only be detected after applying combined atmospheric CO2 and δ13C constraints as done in this work. The additional constraints on surface CO2 exchange from δ13C observations neither affected the estimated carbon fluxes, nor compromised our ability to match observed CO2 variations. The prototype presented here can be of great benefit not only to study the global carbon balance but potentially also to function as a data driven diagnostic to assess multiple leaf-level exchange parameterizations in carbon-climate models that influence the CO2, water, isotope, and energy balance.

Description: The isotopic composition of carbon (Δ14C and δ13C) in atmospheric CO2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of 14C and 13C in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth System Models (ESMs) present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Δ14C and δ13C in atmospheric CO2 for the historical period 1850–2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for models simulating carbon isotopes in their ocean or terrestrial biosphere models. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

Description: The isotopic composition of carbon (Δ14C and δ13C) in atmospheric CO2 and in oceanic and terrestrial carbon reservoirs is influenced by anthropogenic emissions and by natural carbon exchanges, which can respond to and drive changes in climate. Simulations of 14C and 13C in the ocean and terrestrial components of Earth system models (ESMs) present opportunities for model evaluation and for investigation of carbon cycling, including anthropogenic CO2 emissions and uptake. The use of carbon isotopes in novel evaluation of the ESMs' component ocean and terrestrial biosphere models and in new analyses of historical changes may improve predictions of future changes in the carbon cycle and climate system. We compile existing data to produce records of Δ14C and δ13C in atmospheric CO2 for the historical period 1850–2015. The primary motivation for this compilation is to provide the atmospheric boundary condition for historical simulations in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) for models simulating carbon isotopes in the ocean or terrestrial biosphere. The data may also be useful for other carbon cycle modelling activities.

Description: Long term monitoring of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere is key for a better understanding of the processes involved in the carbon cycle that have a major impact on further climate change. Keeping track of large-scale emissions and removals (“sources and sinks”) of CO2 requires very accurate measurements. They all have to be calibrated very carefully and have to be traceable to a common scale, the WMO CO2 X2007 scale, which is maintained by NOAA/ESRL (Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Earth System Research Laboratory) in Boulder, CO, USA. The international WMO/GAW (World Meteorological Organization/Global Atmosphere Watch) program sets as compatibility goals for the required agreement between different methods and laboratories ±0.1μmolmol−1 for the northern hemisphere and ±0.05μmolmol−1 for the southern hemisphere. The reference gas mixtures used to pass down and distribute the scale are stored in high pressure aluminum cylinders. It is crucial that the standards remain stable during their entire time of use. In this study we found that during low flow conditions (0.3lmin−1) the tested vertically positioned aluminum cylinders always showed similar CO2 enrichment of 0.090± 0.009μmolmol−1 as the cylinder was emptied from about 140 to 1 bar above atmosphere, following Langmuir’s adsorption/desorption model. When decanted at a higher rate of 5.0lmin−1 the enrichment becomes 0.22±0.05μmolmol−1 for the same pressure drop. The higher enrichment is related to thermal diffusion and fractionation effects in the cylinder, which were also dependent on the cylinder’s orientation and could even turn negative. However, the low amount of CO2 adsorbed on the cylinder wall as well as the fact that the main increase happens at low pressure lead to the conclusion that aluminum cylinders are suitable to store ambient CO2-in-dry-air mixtures provided they are not used below 20bar. In case they are used in high flow experiments that involve significant cylinder temperature changes, special attention has to be paid to possible fractionation effects.