ALBERT

Description: A numerical model, the Parallel Ocean Program (POP), is used to run a 46-yr simulation of the North Pacific Ocean beginning in January 1960. The model has 0.25° horizontal resolution and 28 vertical levels, and it employs spectral nudging, which, unlike standard nudging, nudges only specific frequency and wavenumber bands. This simulation is nudged to the mean and annual Levitus climatological potential temperature and salinity. The model was forced with National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) mean monthly winds, sea level pressure, net heat flux, and rain rate. The simulated mixed layer depths (MLD) suggest significant shoaling of the MLD between 1970 and 2006, with faster rates in the northern Gulf of Alaska and slower rates to the west and south of Line Papa. The rates are of similar magnitude to those found in past studies and are consistent with the observed freshening and warming of the upper waters in the Gulf of Alaska. The rates are not spatially uniform, and the simulated MLD in the northeast Pacific actually deepens with time at some locations. These regions of increase form zonal bands in the simulation. The simulated MLD at Ocean Weather Station Papa (OWSP) shoals on average, but it is located close to one of these deepening bands. On average, the simulated, low-frequency MLD at OWSP gives a good indication of the MLD along Line Papa and in the Gulf of Alaska near Line Papa’s latitude. The correlation coefficient between the MLD at OWSP and the latitudinal average of the MLD within the greater Gulf of Alaska (with OWSP removed) is 0.7 at zero lag. The correlation coefficient between the MLD at OWSP and the latitudinal average along Line Papa alone (with OWSP removed) is 0.6 at zero lag. Observed variability of the MLD along Line Papa and at OWSP is reproduced by the model. However, there is considerable spatial variability in the simulated MLD in the Gulf of Alaska as a whole, so MLD variability at OWSP is not necessarily a good indicator of the MLD variability throughout the region. Over the span of the simulation, the low-frequency MLD variability in the Gulf of Alaska is better correlated to the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) than to either the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) or Southern Oscillation index (SOI).