Publication Date:
2012-06-23
Description:
Avian A/H5N1 influenza viruses pose a pandemic threat. As few as five amino acid substitutions, or four with reassortment, might be sufficient for mammal-to-mammal transmission through respiratory droplets. From surveillance data, we found that two of these substitutions are common in A/H5N1 viruses, and thus, some viruses might require only three additional substitutions to become transmissible via respiratory droplets between mammals. We used a mathematical model of within-host virus evolution to study factors that could increase and decrease the probability of the remaining substitutions evolving after the virus has infected a mammalian host. These factors, combined with the presence of some of these substitutions in circulating strains, make a virus evolving in nature a potentially serious threat. These results highlight critical areas in which more data are needed for assessing, and potentially averting, this threat.〈br /〉〈br /〉〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3426314/" target="_blank"〉〈img src="https://static.pubmed.gov/portal/portal3rc.fcgi/4089621/img/3977009" border="0"〉〈/a〉 〈a href="https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3426314/" target="_blank"〉This paper as free author manuscript - peer-reviewed and accepted for publication〈/a〉〈br /〉〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Russell, Colin A -- Fonville, Judith M -- Brown, Andre E X -- Burke, David F -- Smith, David L -- James, Sarah L -- Herfst, Sander -- van Boheemen, Sander -- Linster, Martin -- Schrauwen, Eefje J -- Katzelnick, Leah -- Mosterin, Ana -- Kuiken, Thijs -- Maher, Eileen -- Neumann, Gabriele -- Osterhaus, Albert D M E -- Kawaoka, Yoshihiro -- Fouchier, Ron A M -- Smith, Derek J -- DP1 OD000490/OD/NIH HHS/ -- DP1-OD000490-01/OD/NIH HHS/ -- HHSN266200700010C/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/ -- HHSN266200700010C/PHS HHS/ -- R01 AI 069274/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/ -- R56 AI069274/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/ -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2012 Jun 22;336(6088):1541-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1222526.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Department of Zoology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/22723414" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Keywords:
Adaptation, Physiological
;
Air Microbiology
;
Amino Acid Substitution
;
Animals
;
Birds
;
*Evolution, Molecular
;
Genetic Fitness
;
Glycosylation
;
Hemagglutinin Glycoproteins, Influenza Virus/*genetics/metabolism
;
High-Throughput Nucleotide Sequencing
;
Humans
;
Influenza A Virus, H5N1 Subtype/*genetics/*pathogenicity
;
Influenza in Birds/virology
;
Influenza, Human/immunology/transmission/*virology
;
Mammals
;
Models, Biological
;
Mutation
;
Orthomyxoviridae Infections/transmission/*virology
;
Probability
;
RNA Replicase/*genetics
;
Receptors, Virus/metabolism
;
Respiratory System/*virology
;
Selection, Genetic
;
Sialic Acids/metabolism
;
Viral Proteins/*genetics
Print ISSN:
0036-8075
Electronic ISSN:
1095-9203
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Computer Science
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
