Publication Date:
2016-03-22
Description:
Real-time GPS is nowadays considered as a valuable component of next generation near-field tsunami early warning systems able to provide fast and reliable source parameters. Looking for optimal methodologies and assessing corresponding uncertainties becomes an important task. We take the opportunity and consider the 2014 Pisagua event as a case study to explore tsunami forecast uncertainty related to the GPS-based source inversion. We intentionally neglect all other sources of uncertainty (observation set, signal processing, wave simulation, etc.) and exclusively assess the effect of inversion technique. In particular, we compare three end-member methods: (1) point-source fastCMT (centroid moment tensor) (2) distributed slip along pre-defined plate interface and (3) unconstrained inversion into a single uniform-slip finite fault. The three methods provide significantly different far-field tsunami forecast but show surprisingly similar tsunami predictions in the near-field.
Print ISSN:
0094-8276
Electronic ISSN:
1944-8007
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics