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Predicting the probability that earth-orbiting spacecraft will collide with man-made objects in space (1974)

Bess, T. D. ; Gibson, G. G. ; Brooks, D. R.

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Publication Date: 2019-07-27

Description: A probabilistic approach to the problem of collisions is made possible by basing a model of the relevant characteristics of the total population on the known properties of a fraction of the total. A method of determining collision probability for objects in any two different but potentially intersecting orbits is derived. Collision probabilities for earth-orbital missions are investigated parametrically as a function of orbital characteristics and a hypothetical projection of the results to future orbital missions is discussed.

Keywords: ASTRODYNAMICS

Type: IAF PAPER A74-34

Format: text

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