ALBERT

Beschreibung: Predicting future changes in ecosystem services is not only highly desirable but also becomes feasible as several forces (e.g., available big data, developed data assimilation (DA) techniques, and advanced cyberinfrastructure) are converging to transform ecological research to quantitative forecasting. To realize ecological forecasting, we have developed an Ecological Platform for Assimilating Data (EcoPAD) into models. EcoPAD is a web-based software system that automates data transfer and processes from sensor networks to ecological forecasting through data management, model simulation, data assimilation, and visualization. It facilitates interactive data-model integration from which model is recursively improved through updated data while data is systematically refined under the guidance of model. EcoPAD relies on data from observations, process-oriented models, DA techniques, and web-based workflow. We applied EcoPAD to the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental change (SPRUCE) experiment at North Minnesota. The EcoPAD-SPRUCE realizes fully automated data transfer, feeds meteorological data to drive model simulations, assimilates both manually measured and automated sensor data into Terrestrial ECOsystem (TECO) model, and recursively forecast responses of various biophysical and biogeochemical processes to five temperature and two CO2 treatments in near real-time (weekly). The near real-time forecasting with EcoPAD-SPRUCE has revealed that uncertainties or mismatches in forecasting carbon pool dynamics are more related to model (e.g., model structure, parameter, and initial value) than forcing variables, opposite to forecasting flux variables. EcoPAD-SPRUCE quantified acclimations of methane production in response to warming treatments through shifted posterior distributions of the CH4:CO2 ratio and temperature sensitivity (Q10) of methane production towards lower values. Different case studies indicated that realistic forecasting of carbon dynamics relies on appropriate model structure, correct parameterization and accurate external forcing. Moreover, EcoPAD-SPRUCE stimulated active feedbacks between experimenters and modelers so as to identify model components to be improved and additional measurements to be made. It becomes the first interactive model-experiment (ModEx) system and opens a novel avenue for interactive dialogue between modelers and experimenters. EcoPAD also has the potential to become an interactive tool for resource management, to stimulate citizen science in ecology, and transform environmental education with its easily accessible web interface.