Publication Date:
2005-08-05
Description:
Highly pathogenic avian influenza A (subtype H5N1) is threatening to cause a human pandemic of potentially devastating proportions. We used a stochastic influenza simulation model for rural Southeast Asia to investigate the effectiveness of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, quarantine, and pre-vaccination in containing an emerging influenza strain at the source. If the basic reproductive number (R0) was below 1.60, our simulations showed that a prepared response with targeted antivirals would have a high probability of containing the disease. In that case, an antiviral agent stockpile on the order of 100,000 to 1 million courses for treatment and prophylaxis would be sufficient. If pre-vaccination occurred, then targeted antiviral prophylaxis could be effective for containing strains with an R0 as high as 2.1. Combinations of targeted antiviral prophylaxis, pre-vaccination, and quarantine could contain strains with an R(0) as high as 2.4.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Notes: 〈/span〉Longini, Ira M Jr -- Nizam, Azhar -- Xu, Shufu -- Ungchusak, Kumnuan -- Hanshaoworakul, Wanna -- Cummings, Derek A T -- Halloran, M Elizabeth -- R01-AI32042/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/ -- U01-GM070749/GM/NIGMS NIH HHS/ -- New York, N.Y. -- Science. 2005 Aug 12;309(5737):1083-7. Epub 2005 Aug 3.〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Author address: 〈/span〉Department of Biostatistics, The Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road, N.E., Atlanta, GA 30322, USA. longini@sph.emory.edu〈br /〉〈span class="detail_caption"〉Record origin:〈/span〉 〈a href="http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16079251" target="_blank"〉PubMed〈/a〉
Keywords:
Adolescent
;
Adult
;
Antiviral Agents/*therapeutic use
;
Asia, Southeastern/epidemiology
;
Child
;
Child, Preschool
;
Disease Outbreaks/*prevention & control
;
Humans
;
Immunization Programs
;
Infant
;
*Influenza A virus/immunology
;
*Influenza Vaccines
;
Influenza, Human/epidemiology/*prevention & control/transmission/virology
;
Models, Statistical
;
*Quarantine
;
Stochastic Processes
;
Thailand/epidemiology
;
Time Factors
;
Vaccination
Print ISSN:
0036-8075
Electronic ISSN:
1095-9203
Topics:
Biology
,
Chemistry and Pharmacology
,
Computer Science
,
Medicine
,
Natural Sciences in General
,
Physics
