ALBERT

Description: Vapor pressure deficit controls on fire ignition and fire spread in boreal forest ecosystems Biogeosciences Discussions, 11, 1309-1353, 2014 Author(s): F. Sedano and J. T. Randerson Climate-driven changes in the fire regime within boreal forest ecosystems are likely to have important effects on carbon cycling and species composition. In the context of improving fire management options and developing more realistic scenarios of future change, it is important to understand how meteorology regulates different fire processes, including ignition, daily fire spread rates, and cumulative annual burned area. Here we combined MODIS active fires (MCD14ML), MODIS imagery (MOD13A1) and ancillary historic fire perimeter information to produce a dataset of daily fire spread maps of Alaska for the period 2002–2011. This approach provided a spatial and temporally continuous representation of fire progression and a precise identification of ignition and extinction locations and dates for each wildfire. The fire-spread maps were analyzed together with daily vapor pressure deficit (VPD) observations from the North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) and lightning strikes from the Alaska Lightning Detection Network (ALDN). We found a significant relationship between daily VPD and probability that a lightning strike would develop into a fire ignition. In the first 5 days after ignition, above average VPD increased the probability that fires would grow to large or very large sizes. Strong relationships also were identified between VPD and burned area at several levels of temporal and spatial aggregation. As a consequence of regional coherence in meteorology, ignition, daily fire spread rates, and fire extinction events were often synchronized across different fires in interior Alaska. At a regional scale, the sum of positive VPD anomalies during the fire season was positively correlated with annual burned area during the NARR era (1979–2011; R 2 = 0.45). Some of the largest fires we mapped had slow initial growth, indicating opportunities may exist for suppression efforts to adaptively manage these forests for climate change. The results of our spatiotemporal analysis provide new information about temporal and spatial dynamics of wildfires and have implications for modeling the terrestrial carbon cycle.