Publication Date:
2013-09-07
Description:
The confounding effects of step change invalidate the stationarity assumption of commonly used trend analysis methods such as the Mann-Kendall test technique, so previous studies have failed to explain inconsistencies between detected trends and observed large precipitation anomalies. The objectives of this study were to: 1) formulate a trend analysis approach that considers nonstationarity due to step changes; 2) use this approach to detect trends and extreme occurrences of precipitation in a mid-latitude Eurasian steppe watershed in north China; and 3) examine how runoff responds to precipitation trends in the study watershed. Our results indicate that annual precipitation underwent a marginal step jump around 1995. The significant annual downward trend after 1994 was primarily due to a decrease in summer rainfall; other seasons exhibited no significant precipitation trends. At a monthly scale, July rainfall after 1994 exhibited a significant downward trend, whereas precipitation in other months had no trend. The percentage of wet days also underwent a step jump around 1994 following a significant decreasing trend, although the precipitation intensity exhibited neither a step change nor any significant trend. However, both low- and high-frequency precipitation events in the study watershed occurred more often after than before 1994, probably as either a result or an indicator of climate change. In response to these precipitation changes, the study watershed had distinctly different precipitation-runoff relationships for observed annual precipitations of less than 300 mm, between 300 and 400 mm, and greater than 400 mm. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Print ISSN:
0885-6087
Electronic ISSN:
1099-1085
Topics:
Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying
,
Geography
