Publication Date:
2019
Description:
Abstract
Global warming is expected to produce modifications in the intensity, as well as in the seasonality and spatiotemporal structure of extreme precipitation. In the present study, the temporal evolution of simulated daily and sub‐daily precipitation extremes was analyzed to assess how they respond to climate warming over different time horizons. Pooling series from the recent 50‐member Canadian Regional Climate Model v5 Large Ensemble (CRCM5‐LE), the probability distributions, date and time of occurrences, and spatiotemporal structure of simulated Annual Maxima (AM) precipitation were analyzed at various spatial scales and for durations between 1h and 3 days. In agreement with previous studies, the results underline the large increases in AM precipitation quantiles, especially for the shortest durations and for the more extreme events (i.e. longest return periods), and modifications in their spatiotemporal scaling properties and annual and diurnal cycles. For instance, sub‐daily AM extremes are expected to occur later in the evening, while, no matter the duration, the extremes are expected to occur over a wider period of the year in future climate. Finally, the analysis of projected AM probability distributions showed that heavy‐tail Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distributions will most likely be observed in the future climate, with some model grid boxes experiencing a significant increase of GEV shape parameters. These results may have major consequences in terms of the occurrence and possible impacts of the most extreme precipitation events.
Print ISSN:
2169-897X
Electronic ISSN:
2169-8996
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics
