Publication Date:
2019-07-25
Description:
Uncertainties in early observations of potentially hazardous asteroids result in preliminary impact corridors that can stretch across large portions of the Earths surface. At this early stage of detection, the corridor width and potential for damage are typically estimated using techniques from nuclear weapons research. These estimates often employ spherical blast assumptions resulting in a constant width impact corridor. In actuality, however, the ground damage footprint of obliquely entering asteroids is generally roughly elliptical or butterfly shaped, with the major axis extending in the cross range direction and the minor axis aligned with ground-track of the meteoroid. Since actual ground footprints for oblique entries may have aspect ratios greater than two or three, the assumption of a circular blast may significantly underestimate the area of the impact swath and the at-risk population. This work develops an engineering model that can be used to quickly estimate the eccentricity of the ground footprint as a function of local impact parameters. This yields vastly improved local estimates of the corridor width and can significantly enhance the accuracy of risk analysis.
Keywords:
Aeronautics (General)
Type:
ARC-E-DAA-TN68339
,
2019 IAA Planetary Defense Conference; Apr 29, 2019 - May 03, 2019; Washington, DC; United States
Format:
application/pdf
