Publication Date:
2019-07-17
Description:
Statistical aspects of intense hurricanes (those of category 3 or higher) in the Atlantic basin during the interval of 1950-1998 are investigated in relation to the ENSO cycle and to the postulated 'more versus less' activity modes for intense hurricane activity. Because the 1999 hurricane season likely will be classified as a 'non-El Nino-related' (NENR) season and that the more active mode appears to be in vogue, an above average seasonal rate of greater than or equal to 2 intense hurricanes is to be expected (probably, about 4 +/- 1, or higher). Based on Poisson statistics, when the hurricane season is classified as NENR the probability of greater than or equal to 2 events is about 77%, whereas when the season is classified as NENR and the more active mode is operative it is about 87%. The probability of greater than or equal to 4 events is about 31 % and 48 %, respectively, for these two activity classes.
Keywords:
Meteorology and Climatology
Format:
text
