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    Theory of optimal weighting of data to detect climatic change (1986)
    In:  Other Sources
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    Publication Date: 2011-08-19
    Description: A search for climatic change predicted by climate models can easily yield unconvincing results because of 'climatic noise,' the inherent, unpredictable variability of time-average atmospheric data. A weighted average of data that maximizes the probability of detecting predicted climatic change is presented. To obtain the optimal weights, an estimate of the covariance matrix of the data from a prior data set is needed. This introduces additional sampling error into the method. This is presently taken into account. A form of the weighted average is found whose probability distribution is independent of the true (but unknown) covariance statistics of the data and of the climate model prediction.
    Keywords: METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY
    Type: Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences (ISSN 0022-4928); 43; 1694-171
    Format: text
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