ISSN:
1432-1254
Keywords:
Key words Landscape ecology
;
Area-wide management
;
Modelling
;
Interpolation
;
Kriging
;
Regression
;
Climate change
Source:
Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
Topics:
Geography
,
Physics
Notes:
Abstract We simulated male gypsy moth flight phenology for the location of 1371 weather stations east of 100° W longitude and north of 35° N latitude in North America. The output of these simulations, based on average weather conditions from 1961 to 1990, was submitted to two map-interpolation methods: multiple regression and universal kriging. Multiple regression was found to be as accurate as universal kriging and demands less computing power. A map of the date of peak male gypsy moth flight was generated by universal kriging. This map itself constitutes a useful pest-management planning tool; in addition, the map delineates the potential range of the gypsy moth based on its seasonality at the northern edge of its current distribution in eastern North America. The simulation and map-interpolation methods described in this paper thus constitute an interesting approach to the study and monitoring of the ecological impacts of climate change and shifts in land-use patterns at the sub-continental level.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s004840050098
