ALBERT

Description: China is one of the countries where extreme precipitation events occur frequently. In recent years, extreme precipitation events have increased significantly in both intensity and volume. It is urgent to find areas that are vulnerable to extreme precipitation and formulate more reasonable measures to reduce the risk of extreme precipitation. In this study, we comprehensively characterize land surface vulnerability by selecting gross domestic product (GDP), population, nighttime light (NTL), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), runoff depth (RD), and relief degree of land surface (RDLS) data. The 90%, 95% and 99% precipitation quantiles and their occurrence times in the historical and future periods were selected as exposure factors. The risk of extreme precipitation faced by different regions of China is calculated according to the risk calculation formula. The research results show that the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in western China, where the natural environment is relatively fragile, and the urbanized areas with dense economic population are high-value extreme precipitation risk areas. The precipitation simulated by the selected BCC-CSM2-MR global climate model (GCM) is relatively small, but it can basically reflect the actual spatial distribution characteristics of precipitation. Under the four climate scenarios in the future, the joint occurrence probability of extreme precipitation will decrease, and the high-value areas of extreme precipitation risk will still be in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and urbanized areas. This study systematically analyzes the spatial distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation risk under different historical and future scenarios, and provides theoretical support for formulating more reasonable extreme precipitation risk prevention measures.