ALBERT

Description: We have investigated the impact of assumed nitrous oxide (N2O) increases on stratospheric chemistry and dynamics by a series of idealized simulations. In a future cooler stratosphere the net yield of NOy from a changed N2O is known to decrease, but NOy can still be significantly increased by the increase of N2O. Results with a coupled chemistry-climate model (CCM) show that increases in N2O of 50%/100% between 2001 and 2050 result in more ozone destruction, causing a reduction in ozone mixing ratios of maximally 6%/10% in the middle stratosphere at around 10 hPa. This enhanced destruction could cause an ozone decline in the second half of this century in the middle stratosphere. However, the total ozone column still shows an increase in future decades, though the increase of 50%/100% in N2O caused a 2%/6% decrease in TCO compared with the reference simulation. N2O increases have significant effects on ozone trends at 20–10 hPa in the tropics and at northern high latitude, but have no significant effect on ozone trends in the Antarctic stratosphere. The ozone depletion potential for N2O in a future climate depends both on stratospheric temperature changes and tropospheric N2O changes, which have reversed effects on ozone in the middle and upper stratosphere. A 50% CO2 increase in conjunction with a 50% N2O increase cause significant ozone depletion in the middle stratosphere and lead to an increase of ozone in the upper stratosphere. Based on the multiple linear regression analysis and a series of sensitivity simulations, we find that the chemical effect of N2O increases dominates the ozone changes in the stratosphere while the dynamical and radiative effects of N2O increases are insignificant on average. However, the dynamical effect of N2O increases may cause large local changes in ozone mixing ratios, particularly, in the Southern Hemisphere lower stratosphere.