Electronic Resource
Palo Alto, Calif.
:
Annual Reviews
Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences
31 (2003), S. 579-594
ISSN:
0084-6597
Source:
Annual Reviews Electronic Back Volume Collection 1932-2001ff
Topics:
Geosciences
,
Physics
Notes:
Abstract Is El Nino one phase of a continual, self-sustaining natural mode of the coupled ocean-atmosphere that has La Nina as the complementary phase? Or is El Nino a temporary departure from "normal" conditions "triggered" by a random disturbance such as a burst of westerly winds? A growing body of evidence-stability analyses, studies of the energetics, simulations that reproduce the statistics of sea surface temperature variations in the eastern equatorial Pacific-indicates that reality corresponds to a compromise between these two possibilities: The observed Southern Oscillation between El Nino and La Nina corresponds to a weakly damped mode that is sustained by random disturbances. This means that the predictability of El Nino is limited by the continual presence of "noise" so that forecasts should be probabilistic. The Southern Oscillation is also subject to decadal modulations. How it will be influenced by global warming is a matter of considerable uncertainty.
Type of Medium:
Electronic Resource
URL:
http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.31.100901.141255
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