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  • 1
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    Unknown
    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-27
    Description: In economics and other social sciences, complex processes are often represented by numerical models of reality which more or less well reflect behavioral relationships and interactions. Such attempts are the subject of a lecture course 'Mathematical Theory of Democracy' by the author at the Faculty of Economics of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. One new result in this field is presented here in the form of a statistical test to decide whether a political party or coalition of parties represents a majority of the population. For this purpose, party or coalition positions on a sample of policy issues, like introduction of a legal nationwide minimum wage, privatization of railways, and others, are compared with the results of public opinion polls on the same issues. The test is based on estimating the statistical significance of the coincidence observed (i.e. how likely is the coincidence by chance) to the end of accepting or rejecting the representativeness hypothesis. The test is developed for single parties and coalitions of two or three parties. It is illustrated with an estimation of representativeness of five major German parties and their potential coalitions basing on the official party manifestos published before the German parliamentary elections 2009 and on relevant polls of public opinion.
    Description: In der Ökonomie und den anderen Sozialwissenschaften wird immer wieder versucht, komplexe Prozesse der Wirklichkeit durch numerische Modelle abzubilden - was mit Abstraktionen für z. B. Verhaltens- und Wirkungsrelationen mehr oder weniger gut gelingt. Solche Versuche sind Gegenstand einer Vorlesungsreihe 'Mathematische Theorie der Demokratie' des Autors an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät des Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie. Ein neues Ergebnis in diesem Bereich wird hier vorgelegt in Form eines statistischen Tests, der entscheiden soll, ob eine politische Partei oder eine Parteienkoalition repräsentativ im Sinn der Bevölkerungsmehrheit agiert. Zu diesem Zweck wird die Übereinstimmung von Parteien- oder Koalitionspositionen mit Ergebnissen von Meinungsumfragen in der Bevölkerung verglichen, etwa zur Einführung eines bundesweiten gesetzlichen Mindestlohns oder der Privatisierung des Schienenverkehrs und anderem mehr. Der Test basiert auf der Einschätzung der statistischen Signifikanz der beobachteten Übereinstimmung (d.h. wie wahrscheinlich ist eine nur zufällige Übereinstimmung), um die Hypothese von der Repräsentativität der Politik zu akzeptieren oder abzulehnen. Die Studie spielt die Repräsentativität von einzelnen Parteien sowie von Zweier- und Dreier-Koalitionen durch. Darunter ist auch die Konstellation der fünf großen deutschen Parteien und ihrer potentiell möglichen Koalitionen auf der Basis der Bundestagswahl von 2009.
    Keywords: C12 ; C44 ; C63 ; D71 ; D72 ; ddc:330 ; mathematical theory of democracy ; statistical test ; parties ; coalitions ; representativeness ; Bernoulli matrices ; sums of random vectors ; Demokratie ; Politische Partei ; Öffentliche Meinung ; Wahlverhalten ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Unknown
    Adelaide: University of Adelaide Press
    Publication Date: 2018-09-26
    Description: Until very recently, most grape-based wine was consumed close to where it was produced, and mostly that was in Europe. Barely one-tenth of the world's wine production was exported prior to the 1970s, even counting intra-European trade. The latest wave of globalization has changed that forever. Now more than one-third of all wine consumed globally is produced in another country, and Europe's dominance of global wine trade has been greatly diminished by the surge of exports from "New World" producers. New consumers also have come onto the scene as incomes have grown, eating habits have changed and tastes have broadened. Asia in particular is emerging as a new and rapidly growing wine market - and in China that is stimulating the development of local, modern production capability that, in volume terms, already rivals that of Argentina, Australia and South Africa. This latest edition of global wine statistics therefore not only updates data to 2009 and revises past data, but also expands on earlier editions in a number of ways. For example, we now separately identify an extra eight Asian countries or customs areas (Hong Kong, India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand) in addition to China and Japan. We also include more than 50 new tables to cover such items as excise and import taxes, per capita expenditure on wine, the share of domestic sales in off-trade, the shares of the largest firms in national markets and globally, and the most powerful wine brands globally. Given the growing interest in the health aspects of alcohol consumption, we now express it per adult as well as per capita. Perhaps the most significant addition to this latest version is a new section that provides estimates of the volume, value and hence unit value of wine production, consumption, exports and imports for four catagories: sparkling wines, and non-premium, commercial-premium and super-premium still wines.
    Keywords: ddc:380 ; Global wine markets 1961 to 2009 ; statistical compendium ; Kym Anderson ; Signe Nelgen ; Wine and wine making ; Statistics ; Wine industry ; Globalisation ; Economic aspects ; New world wine ; global wine trade ; Australian market ; South American market ; American market ; Asian market ; European market ; global wine statistics ; excise ; import tax ; domestic sales ; overseas sales ; per capita expenditure ; national markets ; wine brand ; wine brands ; unit value of wine production ; wine consumption ; exports ; imports ; non-premium wine ; commercial-premium wine ; super-premium wine
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:book
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