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  • 1
    ISSN: 1435-8921
    Keywords: D 12
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract An intertemporal model of consumption and investment under uncertainty is formulated, and compared with the existing literature; it is argued that an assumption of myopia is necessary for its empirical applicability. It is estimated by maximum likelihood with quarterly British data. A specification search for a satisfactory form of expectations is made, and the estimated model is compared with a static demand system. Strong intertemporal separability is formulated as a nested hypothesis, and strongly rejected by a likelihood ratio test.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Empirical economics 17 (1992), S. 451-461 
    ISSN: 1435-8921
    Keywords: E41 ; E51
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper presents new evidence on the importance of financial innovations for the demand for currency. We use Finnish data on credit card transactions to estimate a currency demand equation which fits the data very well, implies meaningful elasticities and does not suffer from obvious diagnostic problems such as parameter instability. As far as the key elasticities are concerned, it turns out that credit card transactions have a strong offsetting effect on currency demand. By contrast, inflation and tax evasion have only an insignificant demand effect.
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Empirical economics 11 (1986), S. 1-21 
    ISSN: 1435-8921
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper focuses attention on the role of infrastructure (or social overhead capital) in a regional development strategy. A multidimensional typological analysis of regional development is presented by using some statistical techniques (cluster and scaling methods, e.g.) and a so-called quasi-production function. The empirical significance of the analysis is clarified by means of a case study for the Netherlands.
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  • 4
    ISSN: 1435-8921
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract Rationality of expectations of individual agents have been shown to play a crucial role for macroeconomic model building and economic policy. Many applied studies therefore tried to test the implications of rationality by use of survey data. This paper differs from previous studies in that the data used are qualitative monthly survey responses by a large number of individual manufacturing firms to questions concerning their own expected and current business conditions. Results tend to reject the validity of the hypothesis of unbiasedness and efficiency. Due to the qualitative nature of the data, use is made of the log-linear probability model.
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  • 5
    ISSN: 1435-8921
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract The purpose of this paper is to test the Arbitrage Pricing Theory (APT) using monthly data for Finnish stock returns during the 1970–1986 period. The first stage involves estimating the systematic risks for each asset using factor analysis. The second stage involves testing by transformation analysis if the number and structure of factors which influence the security returns remain unchanged across various time periods. The third stage involves testing the implications of the APT using cross-sectional regression analysis.
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Empirical economics 17 (1992), S. 485-505 
    ISSN: 1435-8921
    Keywords: Composite index of leading indicators ; forecasting ; business cycles ; sequential probability recursion
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract There are very few economic variables that capture as much public attention as the Composite Index of Leading Indicators (CLI). Designed as an early warning system for signaling recessions and recoveries in business cycles, CLI now has significant influence over the expectations of decision makers and market participants. Since its inception in 1938, the index has undergone many revisions, the last of which took effect in March 1989. In this study we evaluate the new index. A number of filters, including the Bayesian sequential probability recursion and the rule of three consecutive declines in CLI, are used to evaluate the information content of CLI in forecasting the turning points in the economy. We also report the result of our forecasting experiment to gauge the marginal value of the new index to improve forecasts of variables such as the unemployment rate, index of industrial production, GNP, sales, profit, consumption and housing starts.
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Empirical economics 17 (1992), S. 523-535 
    ISSN: 1435-8921
    Keywords: C 32 ; E 32
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper the contribution of demand and supply shocks of the fluctuation of output and employment is analyzed using quarterly data for four countries (USA, UK, FRG and Switzerland) covering the period 1966 to 1988 in a long run restricted VAR framework for employment, output, the interest rate and inflation. For the USA output and employment fluctuations seem to be dominated by supply shocks in theshort and long run, whereas interest and price level variations are dominated by demand shocks. The result obtained with German and Swiss data are, however, different with two respects: The contribution of demand shocks to output and employment fluctuations are substantial up to a time horizon of eight quarters and price level variations, are at least in the short run, dominated by supply disturbances. Finally, the analysis of the UK data shows the US pattern of results for employment and the price level, but demand shocks are important for output up to four quarters and interest rate movements are dominated by supply shocks.
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Empirical economics 17 (1992), S. 537-564 
    ISSN: 1435-8921
    Keywords: J 51
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we analyze the determinants of union membership in the Netherlands. Not only the unionization decision is studied, but also the decision which confederation the workers will join. Furthermore, a test is presented to determine the nature of the decision process; we ask whether the decision to join a union and the decision which confederation to join are sequential or simultaneous decisions. The answer is not only of consequence for the model specification, but also affects the conclusions drawn from the estimations. In our analysis we find a considerable number of significant variables, most of them with the expected sign. If a variable has an effect contrary to expectation this can largely be attributed to specific Dutch circumstances. This shows that a general theory on the determinants of union membership can never be wholly universal, but always has to allow for nationally determined exceptions. Our results further demonstrate the importance of careful specification of the structure of the decision process. The comparison of the results of the multinomial and the sequential logit model show that misspecification of the decision structure can lead to false conclusions. In the Netherlands, the decision to become a union member is taken prior to the decision which particular union to join.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Empirical economics 17 (1992), S. 583-602 
    ISSN: 1435-8921
    Keywords: J51
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper the relevance of the insider-outsider theory is investigated for the Netherlands. Estimation results of a macro wage equation show that the insider-outsider distinction has some empirical relevance, because the lay-off rate has a significant negative influence on wages. However, the extreme insider-outsider model is rejected, because wages are also found to be significantly negatively related to the rate of long-term unemployment.
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  • 10
    ISSN: 1435-8921
    Keywords: D 63 ; J 30 ; J 15 ; J 71
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper provides measures of short and long-run inequalities as well as income stability among households with male heads using the panel study of income dynamics for the period 1969–1981. It is found that short-run inequalities have been increasing over the time period examined. Moreover, some fluctuations around this increasing trend are of a transitory nature and appear to be smooth over time. Long-run measures are less subject to fluctuations and provide a better measure of inequality. They show a decrease in inequality in the early periods but increases after the mid-1970's. Several aggregator functions are used to compute “permanent income” variables for the long-run measures of inequality and stability. The measures are decomposed to reflect differences in age, education, and race. They are decomposed also into groups which are free of such group characteristics. Education has the most important influence on inequality. Stability profiles indicate, furthermore, most of the reduction in inequality in the early periods has been within particular groups. Reductions across groups are minimal.
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