ALBERT

Description:    Using a bioeconomic model of the cod ( Gadus morhua ) and capelin ( Mallotus villosus ) fisheries of the Barents Sea, this study assesses the role of the fishermen’s behavior in reducing or intensifying the effects on the stocks caused by altered population dynamics. The analysis focuses on the economic development of the fisheries employing a coupled stock size–hydrography-based fishing strategy, which attempts to maximize returns from fishing over a given number of fishing periods. Results show that if the fishing strategy is based on a short optimization period of only two fishing periods, changes in population dynamics have a direct influence on the returns from fishing due to the strong pressure on the stocks applied by the fisheries. If the strategy is based on a longer optimization period, fishing activities may be deferred to allow for stock regrowth, which improves the economic performance of the fisheries. However, in that case, the relationship between population dynamics and fishing activities becomes less clear, as even a reduction of the carrying capacities of the two species allows for an increase in the amount of fish landed without causing a stock collapse due to an increased efficiency of fleet utilization. The simulations indicate that management considerations and the time horizon of the fishing strategy dominate the influence of altered population dynamics on the development of the stocks considered in the model. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s10666-011-9267-1 Authors Peter Michael Link, Research Group Climate Change and Security, KlimaCampus Hamburg, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 53 #018, 20146 Hamburg, Germany Uwe A. Schneider, Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change, Center for Marine and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hamburg, Bundesstrasse 55, Pavilion, 20146 Hamburg, Germany Richard S. J. Tol, Institute for Environmental Studies, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, The Netherlands Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    Groundwater flow modelling is an important tool in simulating and predicting hydraulic behaviour of groundwater transporting in the domain consisted of groundwater flow zone (aquifer) and permeable reactive barriers (PRBs). The aquifer regime is modelled using the Darcy equation, whereas PRBs are simulated by the Brinkman equation. By combining the above equations, the present paper is devoted to analyse the effect of permeability of aquifer ( K aq ) and reactive media ( K p ), groundwater flow velocity, and barrier size as well as assembled style of barriers on key barrier design parameter, such as the hydraulic capture zone width. The simulations indicate that the capture zone width generally decreases with a decrease in K p at a given K aq ; however, there is relatively little decrease in capture zone width when the K p of freshly installed reactive media is roughly 10 times higher than the K aq . For a given barrier system, the absolute capture zone width increases with an increase in barrier size, whereas the increment of relative capture zone width decreases dramatically. Although the capture zone width remains relatively unchanged as groundwater flow velocity increases, it results in a shorter residence time in the reactive media that may require greater barrier thickness so that contaminant levels can be reduced to regulatory limits. In addition, the effect of parallel barriers interaction on the capture zone width should be incorporated into the design. The present paper is based on the continuous reactive barrier and homogeneous barrier system. Similar methods can be used to analyse the hydrodynamics of funnel-and-gate system and heterogeneous settings by the appropriate modification. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-8 DOI 10.1007/s10666-011-9268-0 Authors Shejiang J. Liu, School of Environmental Science and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072 China Xingang G. Li, School of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072 China Hongxing X. Wang, School of Chemical Engineering and Technology, Tianjin University, Tianjin, 300072 China Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    Sustainable development is a widespread concept. Indicator selection and sustainability assessment are basic methods to analyse the sustainable development process. This study aims to develop a software application to select indicators and to allocate weightings to the indicators and the sub-indexes, so that they can be listed in a sustainability assessment. The Visual Basic software is used to develop a software package based on Delphi, analytic hierarchy, normalization and combination processes. Software for sustainability assessment was developed. Thirty-five indicators are selected as a first step of which eight health indicators and eight environmental ones and their sub-indexes are given weightings. The indicators are normalized. Sub-indexes are combined into a composite sustainable development index. The model is validated showing the ‘main features’ of the sustainability situation on health and environmental aspects in the Quang Tri province during the period 2000–2005. The results support the decision-making process of the competent authorities. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s10666-011-9264-4 Authors Le Trinh Hai, Institute of Geography, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam Pham Hoang Hai, Institute of Geography, Vietnam Academy of Science and Technology, Hanoi, Vietnam Chu Lam Thai, Vietnam’s Ministry of Information and Communications, Hanoi, Vietnam Jean Hugé, Human Ecology Department, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium Albert Ahenkan, Human Ecology Department, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium Le Xuan Quynh, Human Ecology Department, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium Vu Van Hieu, Centre for Environmental Monitoring and Modelling, Vietnam National University in Hanoi, Hanoi, Vietnam Nguyen Le The Tung, Department of Professional Informatics, Ministry of Public Security, Hanoi, Vietnam Luc Hens, Human Ecology Department, Faculty of Medicine and Pharmacy, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    Customarily, climate studies of long-range temperature variability have been carried out using annual or monthly averages. The approach mixes the details of short- and long-range variability that are different for air temperature series. This work shows that a useful method for eliminating short-range variability on long-range variability is to apply a sufficiently long (about 2 months) time step to the daily series. An autoregressive integrated moving average model is fitted to daily maximum and minimum temperature anomalies from the mean seasonal cycle, using data from a number of Australian and New Zealand weather stations. The fitted model can be considered as a sum of random walk plus white noise. This enables us to obtain a quantitative long-term description of the temperature variability. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-9 DOI 10.1007/s10666-011-9269-z Authors Olavi Kärner, Tartu Observatory, Toravere, Estonia Chris R. de Freitas, School of Environment, University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    Urban wastewater and agriculture activities are the main sources of urban water pollution and of eutrophying nutrients in many water ecosystems. Several EU directives have been adopted and affect the control of urban water pollution. The EU legislation requires the achievement of good ecological and chemical status in all water. This paper focuses on the use of economic instruments as a priority in the context of implementation. Our analysis only considers public wastewater utilities facing demand and capacity shocks. The proposed mechanism constitutes efficient means of moving towards sustainability by promoting full-cost pricing and considering external costs from wastewater services. Environmental damage associated with urban water pollution are internalized. The model also explicitly considers the investment needed to set-up wastewater system facilities. Our results indicate that savings in capacity could be achieved by adopting the proposed incentive-based mechanism that characterizes the optimal capacity selection rule. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-16 DOI 10.1007/s10666-011-9261-7 Authors Jihad C. Elnaboulsi, CRESE, Centre de Recherche sur les Stratégies Economiques, Université de Franche-Comté, 45 D, Av. de l’Observatoire, 25030 Besançon cedex, France Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    This paper presents comprehensive 3D numerical investigations on depositions of particles flowing through a horizontal pipe loop consisting of four bends. The multiphase mixture model available in FLUENT 6.2 was used in this study. In this numerical simulation, five different particle sizes have been used as secondary phases to calculate real multiphase effect in which inter-particle interaction has been considered. The deposition of particles along the periphery of the pipe wall was investigated as a function of particle size and fluid velocity. The simulations showed that near the upstream of the bends, maximum particle concentration occurred at the bottom of the pipe. However, downstream the bends, the maximum particle concentration occurred at an angle of 60° from the bottom. The larger particles clearly showed deposition near the bottom wall except downstream. As expected, the smaller particles showed less tendency of deposition and lesser at higher velocity. This numerical investigation showed qualitative agreement with the experiments conducted by Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Melbourne team for similar conditions. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-9 DOI 10.1007/s10666-011-9252-8 Authors Alamgir Hossain, Faculty of Engineering and Industrial Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia Jamal Naser, Faculty of Engineering and Industrial Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia Monzur Alam Imteaz, Faculty of Engineering and Industrial Sciences, Swinburne University of Technology, Melbourne, VIC 3122, Australia Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    The concentration of nitrogen dioxide (NO 2 ) in background air varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by meteorological and anthropogenic factors. Background concentrations used in local air quality modelling studies have a significant effect on the accuracy of the overall result and when based on short-term monitoring data, variation in concentrations with air mass history is often unaccounted for. The current paper presents a powerful tool for the quantification and separation of local and regional air mass effects on background air quality. The origin of and the regions traversed by an air mass prior to reaching a receptor has been modelled using HYsplit-4. Trajectories (between 12 and 96 h duration) were defined based on the frequency with which they passed into 16 predefined compass quadrants and each represented as a vector. Using this vector as the predictor variable and the background concentration as the response variable, non-parametric regression using a Gaussian kernel function was carried out. A graphical output indicated the trajectory direction of maximum NO 2 concentration, while allowing distinction to be made between spurious and true peaks. In all cases, air mass history was found to have a statistically significant effect on NO 2 concentrations. Incorporating emissions data into the analysis local and regional effects were separated and quantified. It was found that emissions in the UK and Europe have a significant effect on background NO 2 concentrations in Ireland and in some instances supersede domestic emissions. The methods can be used to identify source regions, separate local and regional effects and improve predictions of background concentrations based on limited monitoring data. In particular, the results highlight the importance of considering air mass history when assessing background concentration levels for use in local air quality modelling studies. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s10666-011-9301-3 Authors Aoife Donnelly, Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Museum Building, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland Brian Broderick, Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Museum Building, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland Bruce Misstear, Department of Civil, Structural and Environmental Engineering, Museum Building, Trinity College Dublin, College Green, Dublin 2, Ireland Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    Large wildland fires are major disturbances that strongly influence the carbon cycling and vegetation dynamics of Canadian boreal ecosystems. Although large wildland fires have recently received much scrutiny in scientific study, it is still a challenge for researchers to predict large fire frequency and burned area. Here, we use monthly climate and elevation data to quantify the frequency of large fires using a Poisson model, and we calculate the probability of burned area exceeding a certain size using a compound Poisson process. We find that the Poisson model simulates large fire occurrence well during the fire season (May through August) using monthly climate, and the threshold probability calculated by the compound Poisson model agrees well with historical records. Threshold probabilities are significantly different among different Canadian ecozones, with the Boreal Shield ecozone always showing the highest probability. The fire prediction model described in this study and the derived information will facilitate future quantification of fire risks and help improve fire management in the region. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-11 DOI 10.1007/s10666-012-9307-5 Authors Yueyang Jiang, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA Qianlai Zhuang, Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, USA Daniel Mandallaz, Department of Environmental Sciences, ETH Zurich, CHN K74.1, CH 8092 Zurich, Switzerland Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    A new Swiss TIMES (The Integrated MARKAL–EFOM System) electricity model with an hourly representation of inter-temporal detail and a century-long model horizon has been developed to explore the TIMES framework’s suitability as a long-term electricity dispatch model. To understand the incremental insights from this hourly model, it is compared to an aggregated model with only two diurnal timeslices like in most MARKAL/TIMES models. Two scenarios have been analysed with both models to answer the following questions: Are there differences in model solutions? What are the benefits of having a high number of timeslices? Are there any computational limitations? The primary objective of this paper is to understand the differences between the solutions of the two models, rather than Swiss policy implication or potential uncertainties in input parameters and assumptions. The analysis reveals that the hourly model offers powerful insights into the electricity generation schedule. Nevertheless, the TIMES framework cannot substitute for a dispatch model because some features cannot be represented; however, the long model time horizon and integrated system approaches of TIMES provide features not available in conventional dispatch models. The methodology of the model development and insights from the model comparison are described. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-19 DOI 10.1007/s10666-012-9346-y Authors Ramachandran Kannan, Energy Economics Group, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institut, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland Hal Turton, Energy Economics Group, Laboratory for Energy Systems Analysis, Paul Scherrer Institut, 5232 Villigen, Switzerland Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026

Description:    This paper proposes an atmospheric diffusion model for traffic-related emission in urban areas within a few hundred meters from relevant roads. The model adopts the mass-conservation (MC) principle for the velocity calculation and the advection-diffusion (AD) equation for the concentration calculation. This MC+AD combination was chosen to achieve fast calculation for complex geometries. To compensate for the inherent deficiencies of MC and AD, as many known properties possible of turbulent boundary-layer flow over obstacles are incorporated into the MC calculation, and the diffusivity in AD is derived from the velocity spectrum as a function of distance from the emission source. The model is evaluated against wind-tunnel experiments ranging from point-source emission in uniform urban canopy to along-road emission in real city geometries. The model performs well in relatively simple configurations, but the performance deteriorates considerably as the complexity increases. However, in real city geometries, the model exhibits distinctly better performance in terms of statistical indices than a conventional Gaussian-plume model that neglects the effect of individual buildings. The model is therefore a viable option for environmental assessment. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-28 DOI 10.1007/s10666-012-9340-4 Authors Isao Kanda, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Japan Yukio Yamao, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Japan Toshimasa Ohara, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Japan Kiyoshi Uehara, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Japan Journal Environmental Modeling and Assessment Online ISSN 1573-2967 Print ISSN 1420-2026