ALBERT

Description:    Understanding public perceptions of climate is critical for developing an effective strategy to mitigate the effects of human activity on the natural environment and reduce human vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. While recent climate assessments document change among various physical systems (e.g., increased temperature, sea level rise, shrinking glaciers), environmental perceptions are relatively under-researched despite the fact that there is growing skepticism and disconnect between climate science and public opinion. This study utilizes a socio-ecological research framework to investigate how public perceptions compared with environmental conditions in one urban center. Specifically, air temperature during an extreme heat event was examined as one characteristic of environmental conditions by relating simulations from the Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) atmospheric model with self-reported perceptions of regional and neighborhood temperatures from a social survey of Phoenix, AZ (USA) metropolitan area residents. Results indicate that: 1) human exposure to high temperatures varies substantially throughout metropolitan Phoenix; 2) public perceptions of temperature are more strongly correlated with proximate environmental conditions than with distal conditions; and 3) perceptions of temperature are related to social characteristics and situational variables. The social constructionist paradigm explains public perceptions at the regional scale, while experience governs attitude formation at the neighborhood scale. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-27 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0165-y Authors Darren Ruddell, Spatial Sciences Institute, University of Southern California, 3616 Trousdale Parkway, Suite B55, Los Angeles, CA, USA Sharon L. Harlan, Arizona State University, Phoenix metropolitan area, AZ, USA Susanne Grossman-Clarke, Arizona State University, Phoenix metropolitan area, AZ, USA Gerardo Chowell, Arizona State University, Phoenix metropolitan area, AZ, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    A pilot cropland carbon sequestration program within north central Montana has allowed farmers to receive carbon credit for management adjustments associated with changing from tillage-based agricultural systems to no-till. Carbon credit can also be obtained by adopting conservation reserve, where cropland is planted into perennial vegetation. Summer fallowing is also considered within the crediting process as credit is not given in years that a field is left un-vegetated. The carbon sequestration program has been advocated as a means to mitigate climate change while providing an added source of income for Montana farmers. There is lack of data, however, pertaining to the percentage of lands within this region that have not converted to no-till management, lands under certain crop intensities (e.g. those that are cropped every growing season vs. those that use a fallow-crop-fallow system), or cropland that have converted to perennial vegetation outside of the popular Conservation Reserve Program. Data is also sparse concerning the amount of soil organic carbon that might be sequestered given a conversion to no-till or conservation reserve. This study established regional percentage estimates of cropland under no-till, various degrees of crop intensity, and conservation reserve within north central Montana. Literature-based carbon sequestration estimates were used to generate carbon gain data associated with the conversation to no-till and to conservation reserve. These estimates were then applied to the area-based cropland statistics to estimate potential regional carbon sequestration associated with these management changes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-31 DOI 10.1007/s10584-010-0009-1 Authors J. D. Watts, Department of Forestry, University of Montana, NTSG, Rm. 424, 32 Campus Drive, Missoula, MT 59803, USA R. L. Lawrence, Department of Land Resources and Environmental Science, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA P. Miller, Department of Land Resources and Environmental Science, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA C. Montagne, Department of Land Resources and Environmental Science, Montana State University, Bozeman, MT 59717, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    The sequence of extreme September sea ice extent minima over the past decade suggests acceleration in the response of the Arctic sea ice cover to external forcing, hastening the ongoing transition towards a seasonally open Arctic Ocean. This reflects several mutually supporting processes. Because of the extensive open water in recent Septembers, ice cover in the following spring is increasingly dominated by thin, first-year ice (ice formed during the previous autumn and winter) that is vulnerable to melting out in summer. Thinner ice in spring in turn fosters a stronger summer ice-albedo feedback through earlier formation of open water areas. A thin ice cover is also more vulnerable to strong summer retreat under anomalous atmospheric forcing. Finally, general warming of the Arctic has reduced the likelihood of cold years that could bring about temporary recovery of the ice cover. Events leading to the September ice extent minima of recent years exemplify these processes. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-23 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0101-1 Authors Julienne C. Stroeve, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder CO, USA Mark C. Serreze, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder CO, USA Marika M. Holland, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Jennifer E. Kay, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA James Malanik, Colorado Center for Astrodynamics Research, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder CO, USA Andrew P. Barrett, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, Boulder CO, USA Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    In this paper, change-points in time series of annual extremes in temperature and precipitation in the Zhujiang River Basin are analyzed with the CUSUM test. The data cover the period 1961–2007 for 192 meteorological stations. Annual indicators are analyzed: mean temperature, maximum temperature, warm days, total precipitation, 5-day maximum precipitation, and dry days. Significant change-points (1986/87, 1997/98, 1968/69, and 2003/04) are detected in the time series of most of the indicators. The change-point in 1986/87 is investigated in more detail. Most stations with this change-point in temperature indicators are located in the eastern and coastal areas of the basin. Stations with this change-point in dry days are located in the western area. The means and trends of the temperature indicators increase in the entire basin after 1986/87. The highest magnitudes can be found at the coast and delta. Decreasing (increasing) tendencies in total and 5-day maximum precipitation (dry days) are mostly observed in the western and central regions. The detected change-points can be explained by changes in the indices of the Western Pacific subtropical high and the East Asian summer monsoon as well as by change-points in wind directions. In years when the indices simultaneously increase and decrease (indices taking reverse directions to negative and positive) higher annual temperatures and lower annual precipitation occur in the Zhujiang River Basin. The high station density and data quality are very useful for spatially assessing change-points of climatic extreme events. The relation of the change points to large-scale oscillation can provide valuable data for planning adaptation measures against climate risks, e.g. for flood control, disaster preparedness, and water resource management. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0123-8 Authors Thomas Fischer, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Haidian, Beijing, 100 081 People’s Republic of China Marco Gemmer, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Haidian, Beijing, 100 081 People’s Republic of China Lüliu Liu, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Haidian, Beijing, 100 081 People’s Republic of China Buda Su, National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, 46, Zhongguancun Nandajie, Haidian, Beijing, 100 081 People’s Republic of China Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    One of the major tasks of climate models is the description of precipitation characteristics. Many complex physical mechanisms are involved, and the corresponding parameterizations lead to more important differences among models for both present climate and climate change conditions than what is obtained for temperature analysis. Extreme precipitation events are more scarce, and therefore, differences are even larger. These processes are very relevant for impact studies, both when dealing with heavy precipitation events and also with drought conditions or dry spell description. But studies focused on dry spell analysis have received much less attention, compared with the ones related to large precipitation conditions. Present climate conditions already indicate important risks related to aridity over many areas of the world, and they are projected to be increased for future climate conditions. One good example of a region with these kind of risks is the Iberian Peninsula, where agricultural and socioeconomic impacts of water supply deficits are already a very relevant feature. The modeling results indicate that future climate will increase the mean and largest dry periods over most of the Iberian Peninsula, with a gradient of increase that is larger on the south and smaller on the north, therefore increasing the latitudinal contrast with respect to present climate. Regional features over certain basins and coasts are reproduced by the regional models, but not for the global climate model. Thus, future climate conditions point to a more severe hydrological stresses over several regions in the Iberian Peninsula. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-10 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0114-9 Authors Enrique Sánchez, Facultad de Ciencias del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Marta Domínguez, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Raquel Romera, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Noelia López de la Franca, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Miguel Angel Gaertner, Facultad de Ciencias del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Clemente Gallardo, Instituto de Ciencias Ambientales (ICAM), Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Manuel Castro, Facultad de Ciencias del Medio Ambiente, Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha (UCLM), Toledo, Spain Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    In this paper we argue that the financial provisions of the Copenhagen Accord, if used primarily to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHGs) emissions, could compensate the lack of more energetic action on the domestic mitigation side. In order to maximize the mitigation potential, the Copenhagen Green Climate Fund (CGCF) should be transformed into the International Bank for Emissions Allowance Acquisition (IBEAA) envisaged by Bradford ( 2008 ). We estimate that 50 percent of the CGCF in 2020 (50 US billions) could finance from 2.1 to 3.3 Gt CO2-eq emission reductions, depending on the domestic mitigation effort of Annex I and Non-Annex I countries. We construct a matrix that shows the level of GHGs emissions in 2020 under all possible combinations of abatement pledges and international mitigation financing, thus highlighting a rich set of options to reach the same level of GHGs emissions in 2020. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-20 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0125-6 Authors Carlo Carraro, University of Venice and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Dorsoduro 3246, 30123 Venezia, Italy Emanuele Massetti, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Euro-Mediterranean Center for Climate Change, C.so Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    The availability of electric power is an important prerequisite for the development or maintenance of high living standards. Global change, including socio-economic change and climate change, is a challenge for those who have to deal with the long-term management of thermoelectric power plants. Power plants have lifetimes of several decades. Their water demand changes with climate parameters in the short and medium term. In the long term, the water demand will change as old units are retired and new generating units are built. The present paper analyses the effects of global change and options for adapting to water shortages for power plants in the German capital Berlin in the short and long term. The interconnection between power plants, i.e. water demand, and water resources management, i.e. water availability, is described. Using different models, scenarios of socio-economic and climate change are analysed. One finding is that by changing the cooling system of power plants from a once-through system to a closed-circuit cooling system the vulnerability of power plants can be reduced considerably. Such modified cooling systems also are much more robust with respect to the effects of climate change and declining streamflows due to human activities in the basin under study. Notwithstanding the possible adaptations analysed for power plants in Berlin, increased economic costs are expected due to declining streamflows and higher water temperatures. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-21 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0110-0 Authors Hagen Koch, Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, P.O. Box 101 344, 03013 Cottbus, Germany Stefan Vögele, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH, Institute of Energy Research - Systems Analysis and Technology Evaluation (IEF-STE), 52425 Jülich, Germany Michael Kaltofen, DHI-WASY GmbH, Branch Office Dresden, Comeniusstraße 109, 01309 Dresden, Germany Uwe Grünewald, Hydrology and Water Resources Management, Brandenburg University of Technology Cottbus, P.O. Box 101 344, 03013 Cottbus, Germany Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    The importance of ecological management for reducing the vulnerability of biodiversity to climate change is increasingly recognized, yet frameworks to facilitate a structured approach to climate adaptation management are lacking. We developed a conceptual framework that can guide identification of climate change impacts and adaptive management options in a given region or biome. The framework focuses on potential points of early climate change impact, and organizes these along two main axes. First, it recognizes that climate change can act at a range of ecological scales. Secondly, it emphasizes that outcomes are dependent on two potentially interacting and countervailing forces: (1) changes to environmental parameters and ecological processes brought about by climate change, and (2) responses of component systems as determined by attributes of resistance and resilience. Through this structure, the framework draws together a broad range of ecological concepts, with a novel emphasis on attributes of resistance and resilience that can temper the response of species, ecosystems and landscapes to climate change. We applied the framework to the world’s largest remaining Mediterranean-climate woodland, the ‘Great Western Woodlands’ of south-western Australia. In this relatively intact region, maintaining inherent resistance and resilience by preventing anthropogenic degradation is of highest priority and lowest risk. Limited, higher risk options such as fire management, protection of refugia and translocation of adaptive genes may be justifiable under more extreme change, hence our capacity to predict the extent of change strongly impinges on such management decisions. These conclusions may contrast with similar analyses in degraded landscapes, where natural integrity is already compromised, and existing investment in restoration may facilitate experimentation with higher risk options. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0092-y Authors Suzanne M. Prober, CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA 6913, Australia Kevin R. Thiele, Department of Environment and Conservation, Science Division, LMB 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Perth, WA 6983, Australia Philip W. Rundel, Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, Box 951405, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1405, USA Colin J. Yates, Department of Environment and Conservation, Science Division, LMB 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Perth, WA 6983, Australia Sandra L. Berry, Fenner School of Environment and Society, The Australian National University, Acton, ACT 0200, Australia Margaret Byrne, Department of Environment and Conservation, Science Division, LMB 104, Bentley Delivery Centre, Perth, WA 6983, Australia Les Christidis, National Marine Science Centre, Southern Cross University, Coffs Harbour, NSW 2450, Australia Carl R. Gosper, CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA 6913, Australia Pauline F. Grierson, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia Kristina Lemson, Centre for Ecosystem Management, School of Natural Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, WA 6027, Australia Tom Lyons, Centre of Excellence for Climate Change Woodland and Forest Health, School of Environmental Science, Murdoch University, South St, Murdoch, WA 6150, Australia Craig Macfarlane, CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA 6913, Australia Michael H. O’Connor, CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA 6913, Australia John K. Scott, CSIRO Climate Adaptation National Research Flagship and CSIRO Ecosystem Sciences, Private Bag 5, PO Wembley, WA 6913, Australia Rachel J. Standish, School of Plant Biology, University of Western Australia, 35 Stirling Hwy, Crawley, WA 6009, Australia William D. Stock, Centre for Ecosystem Management, School of Natural Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, WA 6027, Australia Eddie J. B. van Etten, Centre for Ecosystem Management, School of Natural Sciences, Edith Cowan University, Joondalup, WA 6027, Australia Grant W. Wardell-Johnson, Curtin Institute for Biodiversity and Climate, Curtin University, GPO BoxU1987, Perth, WA 6845, Australia Alexander Watson, The Wilderness Society, City West Lotteries House, 2 Delhi Street, West Perth, WA 6005, Australia Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    On the island of Ameland (The Netherlands), natural gas has been extracted from a dune and salt marsh natural area since 1986. This has caused a soil subsidence of c. 1–25 cm, which can be used as a model to infer effects of future sea level rise. The aims of our study were (a) to relate the changes in the vegetation, and more specifically, in plant diversity, during the extraction period to soil subsidence and weather fluctuations, and (b) to use these relations to predict future changes due to the combination of ongoing soil subsidence and climate change. We characterised climate change as increases in mean sea level, storm frequency and net precipitation. Simultaneous observations were made of vegetation composition, elevation, soil chemistry, net precipitation, groundwater level, and flooding frequency over the period 1986–2001. By using multiple regression the changes in the vegetation could be decomposed into (1) an oscillatory component due to fluctuations in net precipitation, (2) an oscillatory component due to incidental flooding, (3) a monotonous component due to soil subsidence, and (4) a monotonous component not related to any measured variable but probably due to eutrophication. The changes were generally small during the observation period, but the regression model predicts large changes by the year 2100 that are almost exclusively due to sea level rise. However, although sea level rise is expected to cause a loss of species, this does not necessarily lead to a loss of conservancy value. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-22 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0118-5 Authors Han F. van Dobben, Alterra, Wageningen UR, POB 47, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands Pieter A. Slim, Alterra, Wageningen UR, POB 47, 6700AA Wageningen, The Netherlands Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009

Description:    The durability of concrete is determined largely by its deterioration over time which is affected by the environment. Climate change may alter this environment, causing an acceleration of deterioration processes that will affect the safety and serviceability of concrete infrastructure in Australia, U.S., Europe, China and elsewhere. This investigation of concrete deterioration under changing climate in Australia uses Monte-Carlo simulation of results from General Circulation Models (GCMs) and considers high greenhouse gas emission scenarios representing the A1FI schemes of the IPCC. We present the implications of climate change for the durability of concrete structures, in terms of changes in probability of reinforcement corrosion initiation and corrosion induced damage at a given calendar year between 2000 and 2100 across Australia. Since the main driver to increased concrete deterioration is CO 2 concentration and temperature, then increases in damage risks observed in Australia are likely to be observed in other concrete infrastructure internationally. The impact of climate change on the deterioration cannot be ignored, but can be addressed by new approaches in design. Existing concrete structures, for which design has not considered the effects of changing climate may deteriorate more rapidly than originally planned. Content Type Journal Article Pages 1-17 DOI 10.1007/s10584-011-0124-7 Authors Xiaoming Wang, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), P O Box 56, Graham Rd, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia Mark G. Stewart, Centre of Infrastructure Performance and Reliability, The University of Newcastle, Newcastle, New South Wales 2308, Australia Minh Nguyen, CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), P O Box 56, Graham Rd, Highett, Victoria 3190, Australia Journal Climatic Change Online ISSN 1573-1480 Print ISSN 0165-0009