ALBERT

Beschreibung: As a fast-developing economy, Turkey’s energy needs have also been growing rapidly for several decades. Its indigenous resources have been evaluated as insufficient to meet this rapidly increasing demand for energy, especially power. Therefore, it imports around half of its energy needs for power. Recently, it has newly started tapping into renewable sources, especially wind and solar. Considering these developments and official aims, this paper attempts to answer the question of which role this renewable developments can play in providing electricity supply security, which is a critical part of energy security. Whereas it seems clear that Renewables will certainly grow, whether this growth makes a significant difference from a reliability perspective is questionable. In other words, due to the problem of the intermittency, the requirement to provide backup power from thermal capacity seems obvious under today’s technological conditions. Therefore, the official policy needs urgently to consider and encourage investments in technological solutions (especially energy storage). Keywords: Renewable Energy, Energy Security, Reliable Power Supply JEL Classifications: Q21, K32

Beschreibung: This article is a critical analysis of mining taxation in Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS). The paper outlines recommendations for improving the tax legislation so that the mineral replacement tax would be calculated in an easy and transparent way for any kind of solid mineral raw material. The first recommendation is to change the tax calculation methodology, tax rates, then –to introduce various benefits (in case of low profitability, in cases depending on the mining conditions, etc.). As a result, this can contribute to the reduction of tax burden, imposed on low-profit mining enterprises, while on the other hand – to increase the tax revenues under favorable market conditions. Keywords : taxation, severance tax, super profit, rental payment, license trade, auction-based system, energy economics. JEL Classifications: H21; N50; P18.

Beschreibung: This research is a forecast of solar photovoltaics (PV) implementation made for a period through to 2030. The leading factors of PV development that were included into the forecast model are the price for PV modules, the efficiency of silicon solar panels, the price of lithium-ion batteries, the price of lithium and the silicon PV module manufacture. The model is based on the calculations made for the coefficients of correlation between the installed capacity and economic factors. The ARIMA forecasting method was applied to generate forecasts for each factor and installed capacity riding on specific factor’s back. The calculated coefficients show a strong correlation between the installed capacity and the above listed factors. According to the generated forecasts, the efficiency factor will reach an abstract limit of 30% by 2030. Investments in photovoltaics will increase up to 70%; this is 10% higher than current level. Keywords : Photovoltaics (PV), Forecasting, Risk Assessment of PV Implementation, PV power, Correlation Coefficients JEL Classifications: A11; B41; C01

Beschreibung: Using a regular vine copula approach, this paper analyzes the dependence structure and tail dependence patterns among daily prices of three agricultural commodities (corn, soybean, and wheat) and two energy commodities (ethanol and crude oil) from June 2006 to June 2016. Our findings suggest that the prices of corn and crude oil are linked through the ethanol market, which are consistent with the results from previous studies. We also find that crude oil and agricultural commodity prices are statistically dependent during the extreme market downturns but independent during the extreme market upturns. In addition, the results from our sub-sample analysis show that both the upper and lower tail dependence between crude oil and other commodity markets become weaker in the recent years when the ethanol market became more mature. Keywords: Agricultural Markets, Energy Markets, Price Dependence, Tail Dependence, Vine Copulas JEL Classifications: C53, C58, G11, G17, Q13, Q40

Beschreibung: To reduce the effects of climate change due to massive CO 2 emissions, renewable energy sources have been implemented; among them biomass through gasification. An important aspect of studying are the environmental impacts of this process. Therefore, a search was made in the database of the science website using keywords gasification environmental impact in the period from 2001 to 2017. When analyzing the 238 articles, an increasing tendency was observed in the publication of studies related to the ecological effects of the biomass gasification process. The United States, the United Kingdom, Italy, Spain and the People’s Republic of China are the countries that have the most studies on the subject. The indicator total local citation score is used in order to identify the items that are the most cited, which indicates the degree of development they have in the study of the impacts of gasification. Keywords: Gasification, Biomass, Environmental Impact JEL Classifications: F64, Q40

Beschreibung: This research focuses on the economic assessment of the development of palm oil plantation (Perkebunan Kelapa Sawit/ PKS) at the area of Taman Nasional Bukit Dua Belas (TNBD/ Bukit Dua Belas National Park) in Jambi Province. TNDB area is a forest dedicated to conserve the culture of Suku Anak Dalam (SAD or also known as Kubu People, a group of indigenous people of Jambi). The hollistic economic assessment of the present research is to estimate the benefits and cost to build a palm oil plantation in TNBD. The benefits consist of the benefits having palm trees and the woods whereas the cost consists of the cost to build a palm oil plantation, the cost to produce wood, the environmental cost, and the cost of the decline of indigenous culture. In this regard, the environmental cost refers to the erotion cost and the carbon release cost. On the other hand, the cost of indigenous culture’s decline consists of the lost of SAD’s culture from the perspective of community’s users, the lost of SAD’s culture from the perspective of indigenous people, and the lost of SAD’s culture from the perspective of non users’ community (NBG). The assessment techniques apply the formula and benefit’s shift to obtain the value palm oil plantation. The SAD’s culture from the perspective of community’s users is assessed from the cultural tourism of SAD and estimated with TCM. The SAD’s culture from the perspective of indigenous people is estimated with CVM. SAD’s culture from the perspective of non users’ community (NBG) is also estimated with CVM. The results of present research show that the building of PKS is sensitive to the choices of carbon price and discount level. The result of Net Present Value (NPV) of PKS is negative if the carbon price is around USD 5 per ton with approximate discount level is 8%. There is an equity issue which influences many groups of people. Keywords: Economic Analysis, Environmental and Cultural Impacts, Building PKS, NPV. JEL Classifications: O13, Q5

Beschreibung: At nowadays, the operational control of energy performance indicators based on the equivalent occupation method plays a fundamental role in the rational use of energy for the hotel sector, since it allows in a competitive way to comply with the quality of the service offered by the company in terms of the thermal comfort of the occupants, minimizing the environmental impact. Within the framework of the energy diagnosis and implementation of the program of efficient energy management under ISO 50001: 2011, based on the method of equivalent occupation for a hotel company on the Colombian Caribbean coast, the line base, target line by 2015, determining performance control indicators such as accumulative trend and base efficiency index 100, to identify potential savings. From the diagnosis, 9.11% of energy savings were obtained by operational control. Through the implementation of corrective action plans, such as the shutdown of unnecessary equipment in the company, installation of LED lighting modules, the configuration of thermostats, in addition to training and sensitization to staff, and reactive energy control in the hotel effective savings were achieved around 8% of primary energy consumption by 2016. Keywords: Energy Management, ISO 500001, Energy Performance Indicators JEL Classifications: F64, Q40

Beschreibung: Promoting renewable sources in the energy sector became an important goal for policymakers, especially in the European Union, where related to the 2020 goals of the Community, concrete targets have been set for each member state. This paper aims to analyse, what factors have an effect on the development of renewable energy sources in the electricity sector. Empirical analysis was conducted based on data from 30 European countries from the years between 2009 and 2016. The results of fixed effects vector decomposition estimation show that there are a number of factors - import dependency, total capacity, electricity price, per capita gross domestic product, support schemes and natural endowment - that affect the development of new renewable electricity generating capacities. It is also proved by the results that consumer commitment has not had any effect on RES development so far. Keywords: Renewable Energy Sources, Electricity Generation, Panel Data Estimation, Fixed Effect Vector Decomposition JEL Classifications: O52, Q42, Q43

Beschreibung: This study aims to investigate the long-run relationship between oil price and value-added share of GDP of agriculture in 25 oil-exporting countries. We use the panel heterogeneous cointegration test and fully modified OLS (FMOLS), dynamic (OLS) and pooled mean group (PMG) methods to examine the long-run effect of real oil price and real exchange rate on agriculture. The result of the Pedroni cointegration exposes the long-run relationship between the variables under study. Panel cointegration estimators show the negative and significant effect of oil price and exchange rate on agriculture value added. These results indicate the existence of the Dutch disease and de-agriculturalization in oil-exporting economies. The present study contributes to existing literature that concentrates on the Dutch disease and di-agriculturalization by analyzing the effect of real oil price and real exchange rate on the agricultural sector in the long- and short-run in developing oil-exporting countries. Keywords: oil price, agriculture, Dutch disease, panel cointegration.    JEL Classifications: B4, E3, Z3.

Beschreibung: This study examines the empirical relationship of innovation and energy demand by wavelet transform context. This innovative technique allowed the decomposition time-series of different time-frequency domains. The continuous wavelet and the wavelet coherence power spectrum is adopted in this study. The relationship between innovation and energy is investigated by using the annual data of Pakistan, from 1997 to 2016 by using three proxies of innovation which includes research & development expenditures, high technology exports, and the number of registered patent by residents. The overall results of the wavelet coherency propose that the measures of innovation are beneficial to bring change in the demand of energy in Pakistan in the long-run period. Furthermore, the results suggested that the technology-oriented innovations have reached to the level of bringing a notable reduction in the level of energy consumption in Pakistan. Keywords: Technology innovation, energy, wavelet coherence, continuous wavelet transform JEL Classifications: O33, K32, P18

Beschreibung: Being oil-based economy, the economic prosperity of Saudi Arabia to a large extent depends upon international price of crude oil. Since substantial portion of government revenue and foreign exchange which determine the economic activities of the government and fulfill the import requirements of the country comes from oil exports, any disturbance in this sector is likely to affect entire economy of Saudi Arabia. The paper applied Johansen cointegration method and vector error correction model (VECM) to estimate long run relationship of economic growth with oil exports, imports and government consumption expenditure. The study has found that economic growth has long run relationship with oil exports, imports and consumption expenditure of the government. The study recommends monitoring and regulating imports and intensive efforts to diversify economic base in exports as well as import substituting industries of the country. Keywords: Oil Export, Economic Growth, Causality, Saudi Arabia JEL Classification s : C22, F14, H50, N15

Beschreibung: This study investigated whether environmental taxes achieve the double dividend of coexistence of economic growth and environmental protection. The research method used dynamic industrial relations models to estimate the influence of environmental taxes influence on the economy and environment. The goal was to conduct an objective analysis with scientific data. The conclusions provide a clue indicating that environmental taxes could only be used to facilitate short-term coexistence between economic growth and environmental protection. Once entering the mid-term and long term, the lack of innovation and technical progress would eventually cause economic development and environmental protection to diverge, which is why studies are yet to reach a consensus. The results suggest that although using environmental taxes to promote economic development and environmental protection can achieve the double dividend in the short term, in the midterm, the first dividend disappears unless a solution for improved energy efficiency and technical innovation can be determined immediately. Furthermore, to sustain its economic development and environmental protection efforts, Taiwan must first optimize its industrial structure, which can only be achieved through advanced research and development. Keywords: Environmental Tax Reform, R&D Subsidies, CO 2 Emissions, Double Dividend Hypothesis JEL Classifications: C67, D57, Q50, Q58

Beschreibung: In this paper we investigate the long- and short-run effects of economic growth and Internet usage on electricity consumption using a panel data for countries – members of Commonwealth of Independent States for the period 1991-2017. The study is based on panel unit root test, panel cointegration test, the pooled mean group regression technique and Dumitrescu–Hurlin panel Granger causality test. The results show that Internet usage affects electricity consumption in the long-run. A 1% increase in the number of the Internet users per 100 people increases electricity consumption per capita by 0.021% in the sampled countries Economic growth affects electricity consumption both in the short- and long-run. A 1% increase in economic growth rate cause a 1.45% increase in electricity consumption per capita in CIS states. Results of panel causality test show that Internet usage and economic growth cause electricity consumption. Keywords: Electricity consumption, economic growth, internet usage, panel analysis, causality JEL Classifications: L94, O4, Q4, Q42, O1

Beschreibung: In this article we investigate the relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in Russia. According to the production function of economic growth models, energy supply must be a catalyst of great importance for the economic growth. We investigate this nexus on the example of the Russian data for the period 1990-2017. Using vector error correction approach and granger causality test we aim to detect presence or absence of cointegration in the long run between electricity supply, economic growth and employment rate. Results show that the sampled variables are cointegrated and there exists a long-run relationship between them. Short-run effects analysis show that electricity supply does not significantly affects economic growth. Granger causality test shows that there exist a unidirectional causality running from electricity supply to economic growth and from economic growth to employment. The results show that electricity supply is essential for boosting economic growth in Russia in the long run. Keywords: economic growth, employment, electricity supply, cointegration, Granger causality JEL Classifications: C22, O13, Q14

Beschreibung: This study aimed to analyses the impact of palm oil-based biodiesel development on growth and poverty in Indonesia that combined with government policy using simultaneous equation econometric 2 SLS’s models. The result shows that if the export tax, and government expenditure in industry increase; then domestic exchange rate (IDR) and interest rate decrease, those will give positive impact on economy growth and vice versa gives a negative impact to poverty. The simulation may apply to know the impact on economy growth, and poverty in Indonesia by the development. The study found that palm oil-based biodiesel development can create a growth and poverty in Indonesia and CPO biodiesel development can be synergized with the increasing export tax and government expenditure in industry, so growth and poverty-reducing in Indonesia will be better and qualify. However, government must maintain stability of exchange rate fluctuation because the impact can reduce CPO production industry. Keywords : Crude Palm Oil, Energy, Industry, Economic growth, Poverty JEL Classifications : E24, E27, C5, O31

Beschreibung: This article is dedicated to the current problem of forming the Eastern vector of oil and gas policy within new energy policy and modern circumstances. The main goal of the work is to study the energy relations between Russia and the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, namely China. Using the analysis method, authors have highlighted the threats and possibilities of the influence of the current situation in the fuel and energy complex on Russia's energy security. Analysis of the existing situation on the global energy market has revealed that deepening and expansion of partnerships in economic and energy sphere with China are of interest to Russia as a Eurasian state. The basis for a partnership is a cooperation, based on China’s demand for natural resources, while Russia will benefit from using effective innovation models of modernisation. Keywords : Asia-Pacific Region, Energy Sphere, Oil and Gas Policy, Raw Material Resource Potential, Energy Security, Energy Dialogue. JEL Classifications: P48, Q40.

Beschreibung: This paper aims to give an overview of the Spanish Electric Market. This energy market is liberalized and complex due the new and modified rules along time. Due these circumstances the hourly energy prices may vary tremendously.  The goal of this work is to analyze in detail the generation technologies, their strategies and energy mix to gain awareness and knowledge to evaluate energy price fluctuations. Two methods are used to forecast in different time horizons: ARIMAX and NARX. Both methods are homologous, using historical energy prices and optionally an explanatory variable. Three options are studied: no explanatory, energy demand and competitive market.  Once the models are developed and trained, the results achieved are helpful to understand further changes in the market. These energy forecasts are competent to schedule energy generation and/or consumption. Keywords: Energy Market, Forecasting, Time Series JEL Classifications : C5.1; L1.1

Beschreibung: The paper investigates a new approach to interaction of all participants on the energy market. An active consumer, as a participant of the energy market, has technical capabilities for optimization of their energy consumption, and determines whether "to produce" or "to buy" electrical energy on the market by themselves. The active consumer’s profile reflects their ability to optimize the electrical energy consumption schedule to improve the economic efficiency of consumption and reduce the cost of the electrical energy consumed. In the concept proposed in this paper, the active consumer is considered as a partner of the energy market entities. This brings about a change in the market regulators and participants’ behavior and their transition from the concept of cost management to the concept of interaction with consumers, involving them in the value chain. A significant difference in the cost of electrical energy for domestic and foreign industrial companies, due to the development of new technologies in the energy sector, leads to a change in the participants’ behavior. Within the framework of the active consumer concept, we propose a process model for the participants' behavior in the energy market, which presents the economic benefits to all participants during a particular period of time. Keywords: Active Consumer, Energy Market, Demand-Side Management, Economic Benefits. JEL Classifications: D24; Q43; M31

Beschreibung: This research aims to analyze about the governance policy and the role of legal politic aspects in the unification of fuel prices in Indonesia. This study used the mixed method, which is the analysis of data of fuel, and the normative juridical methods, investigating legal principles contained in the rules and legislation in determining the fuel prices. Although the nature of this research is descriptive analytical, the study was intended to provide the accurate data as much as possible about the condition of fuel pricing by describing the facts using avalaible data. The results of the discussion concluded that the legal and politic aspects have noticeable role in the determination of unification of fuel prices and in ensuring fuel availability thorough Indonesia, as well as the supply of fuel to the public in the domestic market. The study results are regarded important to provide another perspective in analyzing the role of legal politic elements in fuel pricing, that not merely focus on economic and quantitave analysis. The results show that the fuel pricing can be used as the basis for bargaining power, and political interests, making it is frequently not easy to unify the price nationally. The study also gives some legal justifications and social foundations of administered price of fuel that can be conducted by developing countries, especially Indonesia, having national oil companies and the state body on oil and gas management. Keywords: Administered Price, Fuel Supply, Legal Justification, State Role JEL Classifications: K23, K32, Q48

Beschreibung: Most of the times, Economic and Financial data not only become highly volatile but also show heterogeneous variances (heteroscedasticity). The common method of the Box Jenkins cannot be used for data modeling as the method has an effect of heteroscedasticity (ARCH effects). One of the usable methods to overcome the effect of heteroscedasticity is GARCH model. The aim of this study is to find the best model to estimate the parameters, to predict the share price, and to forecast the volatility of data share price of Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia, from January 2014 to December 2016. The study also discuss the Window Dressing. The best model which fits the data is identified as AR(1)-GARCH (1,1). The application of this best model for forecasting the share price of Adaro Energy Tbk, Indonesia, for the next 30 days showed very promising results and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) was determined as 2.16%. Keywords: Volatility, heteroscedasticity, ARCH effect, GARCH model, Window Dressing JEL Classifications: C5, Q4, Q47

Beschreibung: The purpose of this study is to examine the influence of fuel prices and unemployment rates toward poverty levels. The data used were yearly time series data consisting of fuel price, unemployment rate, and poverty level that span from 1998 to 2017. To test the influence of fuel price and unemployment rate toward the poverty level, the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used. . The results of data analysis showed that in the short-term, there is a negative influence of fuel prices toward the level of poverty. Meanwhile, there is a positive influence of unemployment rate on poverty level in the long-term. In this case, every 1% increase (decrease) the unemployment rate, the poverty rate rose (down) by 33.09%. Keywords: Fuel price, unemployement rate, poverty level, and ARDL model. JEL Calassifications: C220, E310, I32, J64.

Beschreibung: The paper investigates an issue of the accuracy of energy consumption forecasts for power supply companies, which are an intermediary between the wholesale energy market and the end user. Therefore, the purchased amount of energy should be equal to the predicted one with the least error. In case of any deviations, there is a problem of unsold amounts of energy or its shortage, which leads to financial losses, as the companies have to purchase or sell excessively the purchased energy at the price that is unprofitable for them in the wholesale market. Planning and monitoring the process of energy distribution are essential to achieving accurate energy consumption forecasting, which is an important component of all measures to optimize energy costs. The application of the statistical methods underlying the mathematical forecast models, which describe the process under study, will allow reducing the time for making managerial decisions and increasing the accuracy of energy consumption forecasts, thereby affecting the cost reduction in the power supply company. Keywords: energy market; energy consumption forecasting; mathematical forecast models; power supply company. JEL Classifications: D24; Q43; M31 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7238

Beschreibung: This study discusses the potentialities and current situation of the electricity generation from non-conventional renewable energy sources (NCRES) in Colombia. In particular, three scenarios considering the increment of NCRES electricity based generation installed capacity are discussed. The three scenarios are compared to the 2020 forecast of the Energy and Mining Planning Unit ((UPME). Overall, it id shown that Colombia has a significant unused NCRES potential, which makes possible to realize the 6% target  for NCRE based electricity generation capacity installed by 2020. In particular, the photovoltaic energy is foresee to account for over half of the NCRE mix. Even though the law 1715 is a progress towards integrating NCRE to the National Electric System, more policies and developments are required, to further the NCRE based installed generation capacities. Keywords: Non-conventional renewable energy (NCRE), electricity generation, energy policy JEL Classifications: O, Q4, Q42 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7108

Beschreibung: Most of rural people still use traditional wood-fired stoves in their daily life but it was classified as unclean, unhealthy, and inefficient. Indoor air pollution caused by the burning of solid fuels in traditional stoves is one of the leading risk factors attributed to mortality and burden of disease. This paper is aimed to reveal efforts to promote using of clean cook stove among households in rural areas. Based on technological touch followed by laboratory tests, clean stoves are claimed have its efficiency in fuel use and its capacity on reducing negative impact levels for its users such as suppress levels of carbon dioxide, fine dust, and smoke. By having the CSI pilot program, it is expected that lessons learned from the pilot program would create sustainable market for clean cook stoves in Indonesia because most consumers respond positively to the presence of a clean, healthy and energy-efficient stoves. Keywords: clean energy, clean stove, consumer. JEL Classification: Q280 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7085

Beschreibung: In this article we aim to assess the impact of institutional quality and world oil prices on performance of Russian manufacturing sector. Based on the data for the period 1996-2017 for Russia we explore the relationship between institutional quality, measured by the corruption perception index, world oil prices (Brent) and performance of Russian GDP using a VEC framework. For detecting the casual relationship, Granger causality test is applied. The results of the study show that oil prices, institutional quality and economic growth in Russia are cointegrated in the long-run. Yet short-run effects are statistically insignificant. Results of Granger causality test show unidirectional causality running from oil prices and institutional quality to economic growth. Keywords: oil prices, economic growth, institutional quality, vector autoregression JEL Classifications:  D02, E01, L60, O13, Q41 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7091

Beschreibung: This study examined how the effect of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on crop production can be controlled in the West Africa sub-region. Social protection was used as a mitigating factor to absorb the effect of GHG emissions. The study engaged a panel data consisting of 14 Economic Community of West African States member countries to analyse the data which was sourced from the World Development Indicators and Country Policy and Institutional Assessments for the period 2000-2016, with the use of fixed and random effects econometric model. Results showed that an increase in greenhosue gas emissions reduced crop production by 0.13%, this is through the lowering of crop yields resulting from the emissions of GHGs. Therefore, based on the findings, the study recommended that effective social protection programmes such as the Linkage Assurance Crop Insurance Solutions that will provide cover against unavoidable loss of crops or resulting directly from the insured perils such as insurance against losses incurred from GHG emissions and other crop demaging activities shoud be implemented to reduce risks associated with farming. Keywords: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Social Protection, Crop Production, West Africa JEL Classifications: D13, Q15, R11, L98 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7056

Beschreibung: The Gulf Cooperation council countries (GCC) have recently embarked in an energy subsidy reform following the drastic drop of international oil prices in 2014.  The reform consists of increasing energy prices (fuel, electricity, gas) in order to gradually phase out the subsidy and rationalize government expenditure.  Governments however are concerned about the adverse effects of high energy prices on inflation, economic growth and the welfare of low-income households. The objective of this paper is to assess the economy wide effects of the energy price increase in Oman focusing in particular on income distribution as reflected in the Gini-coefficients and other inequality indicators.  The study uses an extended version of the general equilibrium GTAP Model (MyGATP) in which the single regional household was splitted into a government account and 8 household types based on the income and expenditure survey of Oman.  Results indicate the effects of reducing the energy subsidy by 50% would lead to a slight  increase in the GDP by  0.62% , an increase in government saving by 2.9 billion US $ and a reduction in household welfare by about 3% due mainly to the increase in the price index of private consumption (general inflation). The effect on the Gini coefficient is however very small showing little sensitivity in the short run of income inequality to the subsidy reform. Keywords : Energy subsidy, MyGATP, Oman JEL Classifications: Q40, C6, D6,O53 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7142

Beschreibung: This present study examines the role of renewable energy in influencing economic well-being in Malaysia. We used annual data over the period of 1980 to 2016 in order to apply recent econometrics. The study used renewable energy and economic growth as a proxy of economic well-being to examine the long run connection between renewable energy and economic well-being. The results of ARDL bound testing approach confirm the valid long-term connection among renewable energy and economic well-being in Malaysia. Furthermore, the results indicate that renewable energy have significant and positive impact on economic well-being in short and long run. It is therefore recommended that the policymakers are required to focus on the green energy generation sector by increasing renewable energy production from the existing sources. Keywords: Renewable energy, economic well-being, ARDL bound testing, Malaysia. JEL Classifications: I31, Q22, Q52 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7229

Beschreibung: This study examined the influence of oil price oscillation and exchange rate dynamics on economic performance. While multiple regression models was adopted to examine the effect of oil price and exchange rate dynamics on economic performance, we employed Exponential Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroschedasticity (EGARCH) to investigate the effect of oil price oscillation on exchange rate dynamic using annual time series data that covers the period 1970 to 2013. However, the results of the study suggested that real exchange rate exhibits volatility of about 16%. The result also shows that 10% increase in oil price leads to 19% increase in real exchange rate in the long run. Nonetheless, there is no evidence of fluctuation in the foreign exchange rate market, caused by changes in oil prices in Nigeria as at the time of the study since the shock effect between oil price and exchange rate dynamics is relatively not significant in the long run and hence, in explaining the reasons for volatility in exchange rate as represented in EGARCH result. Also, we observed a positive relationship between oil price, exchange rate dynamic and economic performance (proxy; real GDP). From the empirical findings, this study therefore recommends that government should reduce the pressure on exchange rate by diversifying the economy so as to reduce the pressure on oil. This will help to stabilize oil price and promote growth. K e ywords: Oil price oscillation, Exchange Rate Dynamic, economic performance J EL Classifications: F30, F31, P33 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.5944

Beschreibung: At the time of the possible closure of the significant Slovenian classical electricity production in the Šoštanj Thermal Power Plant and related Velenje Coal Mine, as well as the termination of the subsidies of cost-inefficient electric power production in EU member states, electricity prices in Slovenia for one third of its supply would rise to a level set to cover the cost of its production with a conventional gas-steam turbine. Calculated for the price of electricity produced in the Šoštanj Thermal Power Plant, this means an average price increase of 39 €/MWh. Higher prices of electricity would affect the performance and capacity of the Slovenian economy while bringing a reduction to real household income along with annual drops in Slovenian GDP of 0.4%, Slovenia would stand to lose around 2,700 jobs, and the consumer price level would rise by 0.4%. Keywords: Electricity Power Market, Electricity Supply and Demand, Energy and the Economy JEL Classifications: D40, L94, Q3, Q43 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7112

Beschreibung: This study aims to analyze the theoretical assessment of formation of low-carbon development in Kazakhstan: the development of approaches and the identification of priority directions. The application of scientific methods in this research will allow studying the process of formation and development of low car-bon economy with the use of two methods. Institutional approach involves investigating of legislative and legal support. The ecological - economic approach, which assumes of analysis of efficiency of the directions and methods of decarbonization. This research confirms that Kazakhstan requires formation and development of low-carbon economy, but we have to understand clearly approaches and choose the correct mechanisms. Further, the authors developed three different approaches of transition to low-carbon development for Kazakhstan. According to the results of this theoretical study proposed that means the category for low-carbon development is a new socio-economic and technological system (model) of economic development that stimulates the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. In Kazakhstan developed regulatory framework, but is far behind from goals and objectives. However, the system of mechanisms of transition to low-carbon development is at an early stage of formation and supplemented by a wide range of tools. Keywords: Low-Carbon Development, Decarbonization, Energy Resources JEL Classifications: Q 40, Q 49 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7294

Beschreibung: International trade with the economic globalization gaining wide currency has brought along the environmental problems. Transition to environment-friendly high-tech products and schemes in developed countries alleviated the impacts of these problems whereas underdeveloped environmental standards in developing countries still cause deterioration in the environmental quality. For this reason, there are different views on the environmental impacts of globalization. The study investigates the impact of globalization and trade openness on CO 2 emissions with reference to the NAFTA countries. Employing panel-data analysis, the study relies on the annual data for a period of 1990-2015. The findings reveal that there is a positive relationship between economic globalization and trade openness, and CO 2 emissions. The study further tests the validity of Environmental Kuznets Curve for the target countries. To this end, the research identifies a positive-direction relationship in both linear and square forms between CO 2 emissions and economic growth. Keywords: Economic Globalization, CO 2 Emissions, Environmental Kuznets Curve JEL Classifications: C33, F18, F64, Q50 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.7233

Beschreibung: The Federation of Electric Power Companies (FEPC) of Japan has long been releasing the detailed financial statements of their member corporations (on their web site). We have analyzed the FEPC’s financial data over half a century and have clarified the problems and distortions built in Japan’s power industry through the ‘dual pricing mechanism’ for the “industrial use” and the “home-use” sectors. In fact the former shares two thirds of the power demand and yields only small profits or even losses; and the latter, sharing one third of the demand, yields nearly all of the industry’s profits. After the full retail deregulation, however, this home-use sector (the industry’s treasure box) seems now suffering diminution of profitability: because the power majors have began to raise a “cutthroat competition” against each other. This price-cutting war might be considered very dangerous for the sustainability of this industry because this business is highly equipment-intensive and so severely vulnerable to any revenue instability. Keywords: Electricity demand, Dualistic pricing, Income statement, Power retail deregulation JEL Classifications: M4, L5, L9, Q4 DOI: https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.6999

Beschreibung: This paper is devoted to one of the most current issues in eco-economic development disclosing constraining factors, particularly, the polices impacting shrinking world solar industry. In the research it is underlined the significance of solar industry development as a highly potential green renewable energy resource branch. It is considered the most contemporary sources concerning this issue including European, the US and Asia experts to form the worldwide picture attitude to solar industry and green energy potential. It has been characterized the solar capacity over last 10 years from 2006 to 2016. It has been defined key countries those contributed mostly of total world's solar installed capacity addition for 2016 and have ambitious green energy targets for future. It has been conducted the gap analysis between planned capacities and achievements which is in line with the country’s commitment to the IEA in contrast to their achievement in 2017. Moreover, it has been found out policies that are impacting the exponential growth of this industry and what kind of impact these impedimental polices have in context of economic sectoral growth, ecological climate change and other industrial sectors. Keywords : Development, solar industry, green energy, green economy, impedimental policies. JEL Classifications: Q01, Q4, Q5, O1

Beschreibung: The aim of this study was to analyze the energy demand in a scenario considering the National Policy for Energy Efficiency (PLANEE) of Ecuador. For this purpose, the effects on energy supply and demand by taking into account an economic scenario were studied. The economic scenario considered historical Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The main contribution is this scenario was considered the Development Plan and current information. The data selected included the fall in GDP in 2015 as a result of the crisis caused by the fall in oil prices. The energy scenarios were designed using Long-range Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP) model. Two scenarios were development, business as usual (BaU) without policies and projects. The results show that energy efficiency measures implicate cumulative energy savings that could reach 216,700 kBOE between 2015 and 2035. Keywords: Energy scenarios, Energy efficiency, LEAP JEL Classification:   Q4

Beschreibung: Problems of energy efficiency, along with increasing environmental safety of production and increasing social responsibility, are becoming a central object of research. Therefore, the main goal of the work is to analyze the prospects for the development of the oil and gas industry. It was established that innovative technologies play an important role in the development of energy. In the structure of public administration, the definition of the place in the close relationship with commodity-money relations, mediating its implementation. But refusal of oil resources will lead to negative consequences. It is established that the maximum production of conventional oil in the world in the amount of 4.5-4.8 billion tons per year will be achieved in 2020-2030. Major areas of conventional oil production in this period will be oil and gas basins of the Persian Gulf, Western and Eastern Siberia, the Caspian sea, the Atlantic shelves of Africa and South America. The achieved level of oil production can be maintained by large-scale involvement in the development of non-traditional sources (bitumen and shale oil). According to the raw material base, the leaders of unconventional oil production should be Venezuela, Canada, Russia and the United States. Keywords: environmental policy, oil production, forecast, coal-fired power plants, economic crisis. JEL Classifications: L100, Q400, Q430.

Beschreibung: Financial markets play an important role in accelerating the economic activities in any country but it may also harm environment if financial funds are invested in the project which are environment friendly. Further, Green Human Resource Management (GHRM) may help in reducing Co 2 emissions.  This paper examines the influences of Financial Market Development (FMD) and GHRM on the pollution of Saudi Arabia. We explore this by using cointegration on time-series of 1971-2016. Results of this study corroborate that FMD and Economic Growth (EG) are positively contributing in CO 2 emissions and GHRM is helping in reducing. We recommend the financial sector to provide concessional loans to the projects which are using clean energy technology and GHRM needs attention to support clean environment. Keywords: Financial Market Development; Co 2 Emissions; Economic Growth  JEL Classifications: D53; Q53; O47

Beschreibung: Modeling and forecasting oil prices is an important issue for many researchers. One of the methods used in forecasting oil prices is Box-Jenkins methodology through ARIMA models. Although these models provide accurate forecasting over a short time period, they are not able to handle the volatility and nonlinearity presented on data series. For this reason, on this paper we examine a hybrid ARIMA-GARCH model in order to forecast the volatility in the return of oil prices. Moreover, on this paper, the Box-Cox transformation is used for data smoothing for the stabilization of variance and reduction of heteroscedasticity. Parameters’ estimation in the hybrid ARIMA-GARCH model is employed by ML (Maximum Likelihood) method using the steps of Marquardt’s algorithm (1963) and Broyden-Fletcher-Goldfarb-Shanno (BFGS) algorithm for optimization. The results of the paper showed that the hybridation of ARIMA(33,0,14)-GARCH(1,2) model following normal distribution is the most suitable for forecasting the returns of oil prices. Finally, we use both the dynamic and static procedure for forecasting. The results showed that the static procedure provides with better forecasting than the dynamic. Keywords:  ARIMA, GARCH, oil price forecasting, hybrid ARIMA-GARCH, Box-Cox transformation JEL Classifications : C33, O13, Q43

Beschreibung: This study examines the long-run effect of emissions of greenhouse gas on health outcomes in Nigeria using time series data from 1985-2016 engaging the Auto-regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) econometric approach to cointegration and it was observed that human activities increase greenhouse gases to the atmosphere, this is through combustion of fossil fuels and CO 2 , these are two major sources of Greenhouse gas Emissions. When the quantity of carbon dioxide increases in the air, more heat is stored in the atmosphere; and this comes upon human beings thereby causing a great harmful effect to human health. The result from ARDL econometric approach to cointegration shows that 1 percent increase in greenhouse gas emissions reduces life expectancy by 0.0422 percent which is used as a proxy for health outcome, if this happens, invariably, mortality rate will be 146.6 percent. Therefore, the major strategy among others recommended in this study for controlling gaseous emissions and increase life expectancy is public health expenditure as the results also shows that 1 percent increase in government health care expenditure increases life expectancy approximately by 18.10 percent. Keywords: Greenhouse Gas Emissions , CO 2 , Health outcomes, ARDL JEL Classifications : Q4; H51; B4

Beschreibung: This paper examines macroeconomic impacts of European Central Bank (ECB) unconventional policy on Euro stock markets and Brent crude market respectively. We use actual and confidential asset purchase programmes (APPs) data to capture the unconventional effect and apply the vector auto-regression (VAR) model. We find that when the percentage change in ECB APPs leads stock market returns in French, England and Italy as controlling either the Germany or French stock market. Controlling both French and Germany stock markets simultaneously, we find that the percentage change in ECB APPs leads stock market returns only in Italy, suggesting that ECB APPs for the segments of European stock markets matter. Finally, we find the causality from the percentage change in APPs to crude oil returns. Similar results are obtained when controlling positive percentage change in APPs. Hence, our results shed valuable lights on conducting conventional monetary policy in times of crisis. Keywords: ECB, Asset purchase programme, Stock market, Crude market, Granger causality JEL Classifications: G15, G14, E52

Beschreibung: Pakistan has a vast industrial base which contributes a large portion in economic growth and employs a large population directly and indirectly. The purpose of this research is to examine the shocks of natural gas prices on the industries that use extensive amount of natural gas in their production as raw material and heating source. The industries taken under study are cement, cotton cloth, cotton yarn, glass, nitrogen fertilizer, phosphorus fertilizer, paper and board, sheet iron and synthetic fiber and billet iron. Vector Auto regression (VAR) is applied to check the shocks using monthly data from January 2012 to September 2017, collected from Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS). Impulse response function (IRF), Variance Decomposition and Granger Causality test were executed from VAR estimates to examine gas price shocks on industrial production level in short and long run. Results reveal that gas prices have shocks in short run on all major industries but in long run they seems to stabilize and the effect is minimized. The idea of the study is original and findings help investors, policymakers and regulatory authorities as lots of researches have been undertaken on oil prices shocks and industrial production, while none of research has been conducted on gas prices shocks and industrial production. Keywords : Gas Prices, Impulse Response Function, Industrial Production level    JEL Classifications : E30 L95 O13 O14 Q42  

Beschreibung: An agent-based model is employed for simulating the price of oil futures. The model proceeds as follows: On each time step agents choose their rule for price expectation formation. Next, they bid and ask based on their price and trend expectations. The new price is formed using “the market mechanism”. Finally, the time steps forward and the process is repeated in the next day. The agents use 6 different rules to make price and trend expectations. Brent future prices in a 2-year-period (2010 to 2011) and in 2012 are used for model calibration and validation, respectively. It was shown that market participants weigh U.S. stocks data more than other factors, while OECD stock’s data were not that important for the market. It was also inferred that the market does not weigh the technical aspects of the oil price as much as the fundamental aspects. Keywords: Agent-based model, oil price, technical/fundamental rule JEL Classifications: C4, C5, Q3, Q4

Beschreibung: A resource potential in agribusiness is a roundup indicator of resource availability. Its assessment and efficiently used resources govern a level of competitiveness of farm products among enterprises that have various operating practices. Power industry is a significant component of the resource potential. Greenhouses that operate in unfavourable natural and climatic conditions are an indicative example in this field. The study of practices that Russian agribusiness has will make it possible to identify strong component dependencies and challenges that businesspeople face when they introduce energy-saving solutions. Having reviewed corresponding sources, authors conclude that robust control aims at corrections to be made to the rule of uncertainty of conditions that govern the high energy/output ratio in greenhouse facilities. Based on the correlation/regression and index analysis they have established that the return rate in production of vegetables grown under cover depends on following three components: the specific gravity of costs for natural gas and other heat supply sources, the share of costs for electricity and capital-labour ratio. Findings imply that energy efficiency in national agribusiness was insufficient. Authors justify a need for a substantial increase in a use of alternate energy sources with mostly decentralized distribution. Keywords: agribusiness, energy efficiency, greenhouse industry, resource potential, energy supply, cost factor analysis. JEL Classifications: O13, Q42, Q47

Beschreibung: This paper uses a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) to obtain the decomposition in permanent and transient components of prices of the Mexican Crude Oil Blend, the West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil, and the Brent oil of the North Sea. Moreover, Granger causality tests, impulse-response analysis, and variance decomposition are carried out.  The main findings are: 1) there are long-term relationships among these oil prices, 2) Brent oil mainly sets the market trend for the Mexican Crude Oil Blend, and 3) the yield-risk analysis shows that the Mexican crude oil blend offers the highest average yield and Brent provides the highest average risk premium. Keywords: Oil prices; econometric modeling, yield-risk analysis JEL Classifications: Q41, C51, G83

Beschreibung: The aim of the paper is to evaluate by means of a multi-criteria analysis (Multi Criteria Decision Making - MCDM) the multiplicity of measures regarding energy efficiency and reduction in consumption of fossil fuels, with relative implementation of integrated renewable energy sources, for planning and renovation of single family residential buildings. The work analize the energy (thermal, electrical) consumed by a building of this type (an Italian case study), and, for the choice of the best technology to adopt for environmental heating (hot sanitary water and cooling), a MCDM model was used, which, in addition to economic evaluation, incorporates too energy efficiency, the reduction of CO 2 emissions, the ease of procurement of raw material and the governative incentives available. Our results underline that the best solution concerns the installation of solar thermal panels combined with the heat pump. Keywords : energy efficiency, economic evaluation, residential buildings JEL Classifications : Q410, Q420, L940

Beschreibung: In this paper we study the relationship between oil price (or revenue) changes and inflation rate in Iran seasonally in 2003-2015. Method of the study was able to identify asymmetry of oil price and inflation which is recognized as nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag model. Estimated model clarified nonlinear effect of oil price on inflation. Clearly, we found out that there was significant relationship between the reduction in oil price and inflation growth while there was no significant relationship between increase in oil price growth and inflation rate. Keywords: inflation behavior, oil price, asymmetry JEL Classifications: E31, Q4

Beschreibung: This article performs a meta-analysis of data on learning rates in wind energy, obtained from building single- and dual-factor learning curve models detailed by countries and technology development periods. It reveals a significant difference in learning rates mainly due to design and efficiency of government support programs. Multiple case studies were performed in order to interpret these results. This study proves that the maximal learning rate in wind energy can be achieved by financial support of R&D on the early stage of technological development and by attracting large manufacturers of wind turbines and other electric generation equipment on later stages. Given the fact that wind equipment manufacturing technologies are currently well developed and the global market of wind turbines is highly competitive, the tactic of obtaining technologies in exchange for access to the domestic market may prove successful even with a small domestic market capacity. Keywords: wind energy, learning curves, power engineering, economic analysis JEL Classifications : O33, Q42, Q47, Q48

Beschreibung: The objective of this research is to determine the efficiency of Latin American countries for the control of GHG emissions due to the generation of electrical energy using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). A positivist epistemic position is assumed, and a methodology of evaluative character is used, comprising five (5) phases. The results show that the countries that are located on the efficient frontier have common police like the increase in the share of renewable energies, and diversification of the energy matrix, which means a better control of GHG emissions. It is possible to determine the efficiency of the public policies established by the countries of Latin America for the control of GHG emissions. In conclusion, the countries that are located on the efficient frontier are those that generate electricity with predominantly renewable sources or, at least, use natural gas as a fuel in greater proportion.  Keywords: Greenhouse Gases (GHG), efficient frontier, Data Envelopment Analysis. JEL Classifications: C1, Q4, Q5

Beschreibung: The article presents the forecast of consumption of the world energy volume taking into account the population growth up to 2030. While arranging the study it was found that most countries are in the process of rapid population growth, followed by a phase of outstripping growth in energy consumption and economics industrialization. The levels and dynamics of primary energy consumption per capita are fundamentally different in developed and developing countries. If developed countries have already passed the peak of their per capita energy consumption, then developing countries will witness the increase of per capita energy consumption. It has been established that a number of developing countries will not be able to significantly increase their per capita energy consumption during the forecast period with the outstripping population growth, and the problem of energy poverty will remain acute for them. Therefore the article substantiates the only theoretically possible way of overcoming the crisis which is represented by a large-scale use of renewable energy sources: solar, wind, oceanic which are considered to be non-conventional or alternative ways of obtaining energy. It is less dangerous, practical, durable and environmentally sound. Keywords : energetics, effective energy consumption, energy poverty, renewable energy sources JEL Classifications: C62, N70, O13, P48

Beschreibung: This paper is a review of the regulatory transformation process of the Turkish downstream oil industry with an emphasis of effect regulatory forces to the pace of financial interactions. The regulatory transformation process has been analysed in terms of its effects on large scale financial transactions, in the form of merges and acquisations. The paper reviews a period of 15 years, during which the Turkish Oil Market has gone through a fundamental regulatory restructuring process from a state governed industry to a regulated market. During this period, oil market law, LPG market law and secondary regulations implemented, an Independent Regulatory Authority established, fuel prices were left to the dynamics of market forces, structural reforms have been implemented and the Competition Authority provided guidance to increase the level of competition. This comprehensive restructuring and liberalisation process was essentially a multidimensional transformation process of the Turkish downstream oil industry. During the initial years of this transformation process, there were strong signs of motion towards a fully liberalised downstream market and the players have responded by several, medium to large scale financial transactions in the form of merges and acquisations. As the winds shift toward a regulated market rather than the full libearisation, the level and the period of these financial transactions have slowed down. However, the overall result of this transformation is strong and sustained growth, improved quality and safety implementations, increased investments and financial transactions. The market practically doubled in financial volume, an average of 6.25% growth in automotive fuels for a period of 15 years has been achieved. The last five-six years of this transformation process however, is marked with interventions from both the Regulatory Authority and the Competition Board, which was responded by the market in the form of  substantially reduced investments, lower levels of profits and therefore lower investments in addition to exit decisions of some major international of oil companies. Keywords: Downstream oil industry, Turkish oil market, investments and transactions, growth, regulatory effect, fuels market JEL Classifications : JE31, E61, K2, L11  

Beschreibung: This work presents a state-of-the-art survey of published papers that forecast natural gas production, consumption or demand, prices and income elasticity, market volatility and hike in prices. New models and techniques that have recently been applied in the field of natural gas forecasting have discussed with highlights on various methodologies, their specifics, data type, data size, data source, results and conclusions. Moreover, we undertook the difficult task of classifying existing models that have been applied in this field by giving their performance for instance. Our objective is to provide a synthesis of published papers in the field of natural gas forecasting, insights on modeling issues to achieve usable results, and the future research directions. This work will help future researchers in the area of forecasting no matter the methodological approach and nature of energy source used. Keywords: Forecasting natural gas; Existing forecasting models; Models categorization. JEL Classifications: C53, Q4, Q47

Beschreibung: This paper serves to investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption and economic growth in the BRICS countries during the period 1990–2014. Carbon dioxide emissions and urbanisation were included as additional variables to form a multivariate framework. The Kao panel co-integration and Johansen Fisher panel co-integration techniques are applied to analyse the co-integration relationship between the variables while the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger-causality test is used to estimate the causality relationship among the variables. The study’s results reveal that there is a long run relationship between the variables. The research outcome further detected a unidirectional causality flowing from economic growth to electricity consumption in the long run in BRICS countries. So in the light of determination of the study, the policy implication is that a significant transformation of low carbon technologies such as renewable energy should be implemented to curb the emissions and sustain economic growth and development. Keywords: Energy consumption, Economic growth, Causality, BRICS countries JEL Classifications: D04; Q47; Q42; Q01

Beschreibung: Nonlinear co-movements are analyzed for the daily returns calculated for Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices. The sample period includes data for the pre-2008 price increases and the post-2014 price declines.  Empirical results obtained indicate that it is important to allow for nonlinear and asymmetric patterns in the data. After doing so, unidirectional causality from Brent to WTI is documented with price declines exerting more reliable effects than price gains.  That is in contrast to what has been documented for other sample periods that do not allow for potential nonlinear and asymmetric linkages. Keywords : Nonlinear tests; Co-movement; Crude oil prices, Granger causality. JEL Classifications : C32, G15, Q43

Beschreibung: This study aims at investigating the reaction of Saudi Arabia stock market towards oil price fluctuations a sectoral level in particular. The study covered 4 years from (2012-2015). This time series witnessed historical high and low oil prices. The results of the study added a new evidence for the asymmetric reaction of stock markets towards oil prices that was reported by previous studies. The study used Granger causality and regression tests to explore the dynamics of sectoral responses. Saudi Arabia stock market proved that they faced the current oil drops bravely although certain sectors need to unbind or reduce their relation with oil markets to reduce the consequences of low oil prices on them. Several avenues for future studies are opened to investigate all GCC stock markets and use other methodologies to better understand the dynamics of GCC market sectors towards oil prices fluctuations. Keywords : Saudi Arabia stock market; oil prices; granger causality.      JEL Classifications: E44, Q21

Beschreibung: Based on Jiahua Che dynamic model of privatization (2007) and the experience of privatizing the Mexican petroleum company (Pemex) in 2013, this paper tries to answer this question: Is it time to privatize Aramco?  The paper concludes that Aramco will not be privatized, at least during the year 2018, due to the Saudi budget dependence on oil, low level of private property rights, lack of transparency and absence of financial disclosure. Keywords : Saudi Arabia economy, Privatization, Government ownership, Private ownership. JEL Classifications : O53, L33, L20

Beschreibung: This paper proposes the volatility spillover effect between stock and foreign exchange markets in both directions in oil exporting countries – Russia and Brazil. The data sample consists of daily observations. The method is based on FIGARCH model of the long memory. For emerging markets, volatility spillover is observed mainly in one direction: from the currency market to stock market. Calculations show that long memory is present in the dynamics of volatility, when models take into account structural breaks and frictions. We develop a model to predict the impact of oil prices on stock market indices for Russia, Brazil. The volatility spillover effect is observed in one direction: from the exchange rate to stock market. Calculations show that long memory is present in the dynamics of volatility, when models take into account structural breaks and frictions. This paper focuses on new method for forecasting of volatility (taking into account the structural breaks) on the base of FIGARCH model. The financial markets became more integrated after the World Economic Crisis of 2008-2009. The paper shows that volatility can be predicted using the FIGARCH model if the structural breaks are incorporated in the model. The paper should be of interest to readers in the areas of economic forecasting on the base of long memory models. Keywords: Efficient market hypothesis, stock indexes, exchange rates, FIGARCH model, structural breaks. JEL Classifications: C51, C58, F31, G12, G15

Beschreibung: This study aims to analyze the performance of the Electrical Energy Index in the perspective of Institutional Changes in Brazilian Electricity Sector. The research focused its efforts in analyze the impact of Provisional Measure No. 579 of September 11, 2012 (converted into Law No. 12783 / 2013) on the stocks of the Electric Power Sector, represented here by the respective sector index in BM&FBOVESPA. The research results reveal that from the release of Provisional Measure No. 579 by the end of the observed time interval (April 2015), the Electrical Energy Index didn't recovered from the reversal trend  caused by this measure, which once was a growth trend  but instantly became a stagnation / decay trend. Keywords: Brazilian Electricity Sector. Capital Markets. Electrical Energy Index. Laws and Regulations. Provisional Measure No. 579/2012. JEL Classifications: G38; K23; L51; Q40; Q48.

Beschreibung: One of the prerequisites for the successful implementation of national industrialization and modernization is the synchronous development of fundamental industries. Electricity is a key industry that determines the success of other industries. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the causal relationship between electricity consumption, foreign direct investment and economic growth in Vietnam during the period 1990-2015, by using Toda-Yamamoto approach and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach. The empirical results show strong statistical evidence that electricity consumption and foreign direct investment have positive impacts on economic growth in Vietnam in both short term and long term. Keywords : FDI, electricity consumption, economic growth, Vietnam. JEL Classifications: F21; F43; Q43

Beschreibung: This paper investigates the nexus between development of financial markets and electricity consumption in case of Russia.  According to the hypothesis, we assume that financial markets development gives birth to an increased level of electricity consumption. Also we incorporate economic growth and urbanization as important variables for model’s specification. The hypothesis is tested on example of Russia for the period 1990-2016. The results confirm the hypothesis. We found that economic growth, urbanization and financial markets development positively affect the electricity consumption both in the long and short run. Keywords: Financial market, electricity consumption, urbanization, economic growth JEL Classifications:   D53; Q41, P25; O47

Beschreibung: Changes in the price of crude oil have significant impacts on a company’s production cost. Therefore, research on forecasting the movement of oil prices is imperative to obtain a profound yet forward-looking idea regarding their future direction. Contributing to this effort, this paper endeavours to design and build an oil price indicator that incorporates the ability to determine lead time and has great predictive power and directional accuracy. Applying the indicator construction approach, the present study successfully constructed an OPI with an average leading time of 3.6 months, moving ahead of West Texas Intermediate, a main crude oil benchmark used across the globe. The results revealed that OPI achieves as high as 75.0 percent accuracy. The main goal of this paper is to determine whether the indicator approach can be applied in predicting global oil prices. Upcoming research endeavours can extend the current model to out-of-sample forecasting of oil prices. Keywords: Oil price, forecasting, indicator approach JEL Classifications: C14, E32, Q47

Beschreibung: This paper examines the up normal move of crude oil prices in the last two decades and tries to relate it with the speculative trading of crude oil in the future markets. The speculators were in the centre of attention during the recent large price moves on the oil market. In this paper we attempted to empirically examine the way, oil speculators operate using the methodology of granger causality. We worked with 4 variables - the price of oil Brent, number of active oil rigs, weekly changes in crude oil stocks and financial positions of investors. Our results show that, on the time period we covered, there exist bidirectional granger causality between oil price and investment positioning of money managers. However we also found the existence of strong Granger causality running directly and indirectly from the fundamental indicators (number of oil rigs and oil stocks) towards money managers financial positions on the oil markets. This finding suggests that even if financial investors have impact on the price of oil, their actions are fundamentally sound. Keywords: Granger Causality, Oil Price, Speculation JEL Classifications: Q41, Q43

Beschreibung: The article presents a critical review of Russia’s energy efficiency policies in agriculture since 2008 till 2016. First, we focus on the general background of energy efficiency policies in Russia, clearly indicating the place of agriculture in such policies. Second, the article reviews all the documents adopted on the federal level in Russia with respect to energy efficiency in agriculture. Third, the indicators used by the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation to evaluate energy efficiency performance in agriculture are analyzed. Finally, we critically review the existing energy efficiency policies in agriculture on the basis of the following criteria: (a) overall goals and priorities, (b) a government management system, (c) a technological regulation in agriculture, and (d) financial incentives and funding. The review clearly shows that Russia has weak energy efficiency policies in agriculture and does not employ its full potential. Keywords: Energy Efficiency, Agriculture, Russia. JEL Classifications: Q16, Q18, Q38, Q48.

Beschreibung: The goal of this investigation is to evaluate, analyze and compare the cost of energy produced at nine wind farms in Morocco, namely Tarfaya, Fem El Oued, Essaouira, Tangier I, Haouma, Koudia al Baïda, Laayoune, Tetouan I and Tetouan II. We report the economic factors that influence the wind energy cost. Then, we give an easy and precise economic methodology to estimate it. The conducted analysis reveals that the minimum cost is attained at Koudia al Baïda park which is equal to 0.0164 €/kWh. The good result is obtained also at Essaouira, Tetouan I and Fem El oued with a cost less than 0.03 €/kWh. The parks where the energy cost is between 0.03 €/kWh and 0.04‎ €/kWh are Haouma, Tarfaya, Tetouan II and Tangier I. The park that generates energy with more than 0.04‎ €/kWh is Laayoune. The sensitivity analysis reveals that for the studied wind farms, the variables which have a greatest effect on the estimated wind energy cost are the interest rate, the produced energy and the project lifetime. The estimated energy cost is not very sensitive to the variation on operation and maintenance costs. The obtained results show also that for all the studied wind farms, the obtained costs of producing one kWh of energy are less than the purchase tariff of electricity in Morocco and compare favorably with solar energy production cost in Morocco. Thus, wind energy is economically beneficial in Morocco, which is due to the important wind resources and the available concessional finance. Keywords : Investment cost; Operation and maintenance cost; Annualized cost; Interest rate; Capital recovery factor; Levelized cost of energy. JEL Classifications: E4; Q4

Beschreibung: This study aims to predict electricity prices in the Colombian electricity market. To achieve this goal, conventional time series econometrics analysis and one alternative technique based on artificial intelligence algorithms have been implemented. We use autoregressive-moving-average models (ARMAX) and non-linear autoregressive neural networks (NARX). After estimating a hybrid model that combines ARMAX and ARNX models, including exogenous inputs, we forecasted an electricity price time series in a horizon of 12 months ahead (May 2017). Results show that NARX model's performance is not significantly better than ARMAX's. After applying a Diebold-Mariano test for forecasting accuracy, the null hypothesis is not rejected. This suggests no significant difference in predictive accuracy between the competing methodologies. Keywords : stochastic process, ARMAX, NARX, random walk, predictive accuracy, electricity spot price. JEL Classifications : C01, C12, C22, C45, C53, L11, L94.

Beschreibung: The high price for electrical energy increasingly leads companies to engage in self-production, so as to reduce costs, increase their own energy efficiency, and achieve market competitiveness. In general such self-production solutions have positive environmental impacts, since they involve exploitation of renewable sources and high-yield cogeneration plants, as well as avoiding inefficiencies due to network losses. However, the resulting reduction in the network exchange of electrical energy does not lead to proportional reductions in the network costs, and finding adequate coverage for these remains a necessity. Given this context, the role of the regulator becomes fundamental. The regulator must implement strategies for purposes of meeting national needs in regards to costs, but without excessively penalizing the companies and their international competitiveness, and without holding back development of environmentally favourable and sustainable solutions. The current article analyzes the possible regulatory interventions, their technical and organizational difficulties, and the impacts of these strategies in the national context. Keywords: energy self-production; renewable sources; CHP; network costs; general system fees; regulatory interventions JEL Classifications: L5, Q2, Q4

Beschreibung: The objective of this study is to analyse the impact of crude oil prices (COP) on exchange rate and stock market returns in Canada for the period of 1986–2015. The results of the study suggest that there was no cointegration among COP, exchange rate and stock market returns. Regression analysis shows that COP and exchange rate, and their variations have a positive and significant impact on the Canadian stock market returns. Policy implications are also discussed. Keywords: Stock Market, Crude Oil, Exchange Rate, Rolling, OLS, DOLS, GARCH.   JEL Classifications: L71, Q47, Q48    

Beschreibung: The concept of total-factor energy efficiency (TFEE) measures energy efficiency in a more superior and complex way within the total-factor framework, but takes only GDP as the only output. A new approach that includes desirable (GDP) and undesirable outputs (GHG emissions) has been developed recently and is applied in our research. The aim of our paper is to assess economy-wide energy efficiency in EU countries in a total-factor framework and compare these results with the environmental total-factor energy efficiency (ETFEE) that takes into account undesirable outputs like CO2 and SOx emissions. Our analysis is based on 2008-2014 panel data for 28 EU countries. The efficiency frontier is constructed by using DEA and modified SBM model based on data on three production factors (labor, capital and energy),GDPas desirable output and CO2 and SOx emissions as undesirable outputs. Our research results show that energy efficiency that does not incorporate environmental pollution is overestimated in 20 out of 28 EU countries. When analyzing environmental TFEE during time, results show that in 2014 there are more countries that have reached efficient frontier than in 2008, which could imply that EU countries pay a lot of attention to reduction of GHG emissions and sustainable development. Keywords: Total-factor energy efficiency, EU countries, DEA, undesirable outputs, environmental pollution JEL Classifications : Q43; Q56; C32; C61

Beschreibung: When there is a lack of energy resources in the EU and it has to look for suppliers from other countries, Russia provides the world with most of the oil and gas. Diversification of energy resources is one of the objectives for the EU. The majority of international participants are interested in discovering the potential of the sea. However, the development of the region's resources still faces many obstacles, such as lack of export pipelines, difficulties due to security of supply considerations, transit complications, political and legal considerations and market uncertainties. This study focuses on the countries of the former Soviet Union such as Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan in Central Asia, and Azerbaijan in Transcaucasia. One of the six priority areas of the EU in the energy infrastructure of - the Southern Energy Corridor (SEC), the purpose of which is to link the Caspian basin and potentially Middle Eastern gas to Europe. In the article, we analyzed the potential of the Caspian basin in terms of energy and its impact on the energy security of the European Union. Keywords: Caspian Sea, Central Asia, European Union, Southern Corridor, Pipeline, Energy Security JEL Classifications: F52, H55, H56.

Beschreibung:   This paper aims to investigate the existence of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) for Egypt during the period 1971−2012. Also, it attempts to examine the potential role of renewable energy and trade in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions in Egypt. Accordingly, the study examines the dynamic relationship between the GHG emissions, economic growth (real gross domestic product [GDP] per capita), renewable energy consumption (% of total), and trade openness. Using Autoregressive Distributed Lag bounds testing approach, the empirical evidence of the EKC hypothesis is analyzed. The main findings of the analysis, concerning the validity of EKC, reveal that the EKC hypothesis does not exist for GHG emissions in Egypt for both short - and long-term. In addition, the empirical results indicate the potential significant role of renewable energy to reduce GHG emissions. However, it has been found that trade openness has insignificant impact on GHG emissions. Keywords: Greenhouse Gas Emissions, Environmental Kuznets Curve, Renewable Energy, Egypt JEL Classifications: C32, O55, Q43, Q5

Beschreibung: The paper deals with the issue of sustainable development and innovative efficient performance of energy sector companies in Ukraine. In scope of the Forth Industrial Revolution and modern state of international business environment the direction of global development is inextricably linked to resource management as well as energy efficiency based on innovative approaches and technological advances. By means of extensive secondary data analysis, a comprehensive overview of current peculiarities of energy sector in Ukraine is given in order to point out major daunting tasks and define future challenges. Following the outcomes of conducted research and empirical studies, using systemic analytical approach, a broad range of the required measures to be taken are proposed. Complex strategy launch for technological modernization and innovative resource management is foreseen as a key driving force for business diversification possibilities with green practices, energy portfolio extension, establishment of full-cycle energy infrastructure and, as a result,  sustainable business development. Energy management is also highlighted as a platform for mutually beneficial multi-stakeholder dialogue, the long-lasting and result-oriented one with high social inclusiveness and consciousness. Keywords: technological modernization, sustainable development, sustainability, energy efficiency, innovative resource management. JEL Classification: Q49

Beschreibung: This study investigates the impact of information and communication technology (ICT) and financial development on energy consumption for a panel of 11 MENA countries, for the period between 1995 and 2014. Unlike previous studies, this study uses principal component analysis to construct an index for ICT. In addition, the dynamic panel data model is estimated using heterogeneous panel estimation technique that accounts for cross-sectional dependence. The results reveal that there is a positive statistical significant relationship between ICT index and energy consumption. However, financial development did not appear to have an impact on energy consumption. We conclude that while ICT use increases energy consumption, financial markets development did not contribute to the increase in energy consumption. Finally, some policy implications relevant to our empirical results are discussed such as the need for policy makers to formulate appropriate and effective energy conservation policies, as well as to encourage the adoption of more energy saving devices that accompany the increase in the use of ICT in the MENA region. Keywords: ICT, Financial Development, Energy Consumption, MENA Countries. JEL Classifications : Q43, O13, O16, O33, C21

Beschreibung: This study is aimed at exploring the impact of energy consumption, private investment, financial development and economic growth on CO 2 emissions in Malaysia employing the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) Model for the period 1976-2013. The result reveals the presence of long run association connecting the variables and established that private investment and energy consumption impact positively on CO 2 emissions in Malaysia. For that reason, the study recommends the implementation of clean technology by private investors is essential in managing CO 2 emissions in Malaysia. Keywords : CO 2 Emissions, Private Investment, Energy Consumption, Autoregressive Distributed Lag, Malaysia. JEL Classifications: C53, O16, Q41

Beschreibung: Solar energy in Thailand plays an important role to achieve the target of the Alternative Energy Development Plan (AEDP). Enormous investments from investors are expected to occur for support AEDP. Therefore, the objective of this study was to evaluate and compare the economic potential of solar PV farm between polycrystalline silicon (PCSS) and amorphous silicon thin film (ASTF) type. Questionnaires submitted to private solar PV farm for collecting data. As a result, four main investment costs of PSS are identified: (1) photovoltaic module; (2) connection system; (3) inverter, and (4) engineering construction, distributed as 58.09%, 19.66%, 12.96%, and 4.47%, respectively. The financial analysis found that Payback period (PB), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), and Solar Plant capital of ASTF were less than PCSS; however, it returns low income along 25 years than PCSS. It could be suggested that the investment on PCSS is worth than ASTF. Keywords : Economic potential, Solar PV farm, Investment, Financial economic. JEL Classifications: C8, G0, M2

Beschreibung: The consumption of fuel oil (BBM) in Indonesia for the last ten years is increasing along with the increase in economic growth and the number of population. The increase in fuel oil consumption is not accompanied with the increase in domestic oil production. The research aimed to find out factors influencing fuel oil supply and consumption and forecasting the supply and consumption in Indonesia in the future. The research used time series data for 1997-2016. The research used econometrics model with simultaneous equation system. The model of simultaneous equation system built was consisted of 11 structural equations and 2 identic equations. The result of analysis indicated that factors influencing the supply of fuel oil were world oil price and the supply of oil in the previous year. In addition, factors influencing the consumption of fuel oil were fuel oil price and fuel oil consumption in the previous year. The result of forecasting indicates that fuel oil consumption in Indonesia up to 2025 is increasing in average of 4.07 percent for gasoline, 2.99 percent for kerosene, and 3.19 percent for diesel per year. In addition, the price of fuel oil in Indonesia was estimated to increase in average of 3.76 percent for gasoline, 3.87 percent for kerosene, and 3.19 percent for diesel, whereas, import of fuel oil increased in average of 4.83 percent per year. Keywords: Time Series, Simultaneous equations, Supply and Consumption of Fuel Oil, JEL Classifications: C32, Q4, Q47

Beschreibung: Electricity consumption forecasting plays a significant role in planning electric systems. However, this can only be achieved if the demand is accurate estimation .This research, different forecasting methods hybrid SARIMA-ANN and hybrid model by SARIMA- Gaussian Processes with combine Kernel Function technique were utilized to formulate forecasting models of the electricity consumption . The objective was to compare the performance of two approaches and the empirical data used in this study was the historical data regarding the electricity consumption (gross domestic product: GDP, forecast values calculated by SARIMA model and electricity consumption) in Thailand from 2005 to 2015. New Kernel Function design techniques for forecasting under Gaussian processes are presented in sum and product formats. The results showed that the hybrid model by SARIMA - Gaussian Processes with combine Kernel Function technique outperformed the SARIMA-ANN model have the Mean absolute percentage error is 4.7072e-09, 4.8623 respectively. Keyword: Forecasting , Electricity Consumption , Model , Gaussian Process JEL Classifications: C13, C32, E27, P28

Beschreibung: The article explores the peculiarities of US energy policy at the present stage with the definition of its main geopolitical consequences. The basic economic prerequisites for implementing the energy strategy, identified by President D. Trump as “the golden age of American energy dominance”, are studied. In this regard, the US energy resources and infrastructure are assessed. The degree of influence of US energy policy on the foreign policy agenda (US-Russia, US-EU, US-Ukraine, US-China, US-Persian Gulf) are identified.  It is revealed, that the actualization of the "shale revolution" and constant growth of oil production will inevitably lead to the energy independence of the US from the OPEC and also affect the oil prices in world markets. Keywords : US; Energy Policy; Oil and gas supply; Oil prices; Shale revolution; Geopolitics. JEL Classifications: F02; F50; L95; N70; Q35; Q48.

Beschreibung: This study investigates the short- and long-run relationships between energy consumption, technology innovation and economic growth in Saudi Arabia. The direction of causality between them was also determined using Granger causality. The data covers the period between 1980 and 2015, and autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) was used for analysis as the series consist of the mixture of I(0) and I(1) order of integration. The results reveal that the variables are cointegrated which establish the existence of long run relationships between them. In the long-run, technology innovation has a negative effect on energy consumption while economic growth has a positive effect on energy consumption. Similar result was found in the short run. The results of the Granger causality show a unidirectional causality runs from technology innovation and economic growth to energy consumption. The results of this study support intensive investment in R&D and technology innovation by Saudi government and private companies as well as the implementation of energy efficiency and conservation policies to reduce energy demand, as this would not hamper the economic growth of Saudi Arabia. Government should fully explore the use of renewable energy sources and technologies such as solar and wind to bring about sustainable development in the Country. Keywords: Energy consumption; Technology innovation; Economic growth; Saudi Arabia; Conservation policies, ARDL; Vision 2030 JEL Classifications : B13, C01, O32, Q43, Q54, Q58

Beschreibung: In this paper, we study the impact of fluctuations in global oil prices on inflation. For the purpose of finding out the effect of oil price on inflation rate, we have compared the data for the US and Russia by controlling for exchange, interest and growth rates, imports and exports, and money supply. The analysis covers quarterly data for period between 1999Q1 and 2014Q4. OLS and FGLS models are used by estimating them with Newey-West standard errors. The expected statistically significant positive effect of oil price on inflation rate was observed only for the US. However, the estimated effect for Russia was negative, though it was statistically insignificant. For the US, we found that a 10 percent increase in global oil priceincreases domestic inflation by about 3 percentage point. The impact of oil price shocks, however, has declined over time due in large part to a better conduct of monetary policy. Keywords: Econometric Analyses, Oil Price, Trade Balance, Inflation, USA, Russia JEL Classifications: E31, Q37, Q4

Beschreibung: This article is purported to analyze the experience of energy policy implemented by governments of Germany and Russia in the field of alternative energy, and assess a possibility of applying an accumulated experience of foreign countries in today’s Russian environment. The profitability of energy production based on usage of alternative sources is still substantially lower compared to energy production based on fossil fuels combustion process. Governmental measures aimed at developing alternative energy include the following ones: formation of a new pricing policy, shifting towards alternative energy sources, use of insurance schemes, establishment of a minimum level of prices for energy produced from utilization of alternative energy sources, etc. A lot of countries have accomplished a long process in the field alternative energy technology introduction. Meanwhile Russia, in spite of its considerable experience of alternative energy development in the second half of the 20th century during the Soviet period, is not yet in line with the latest world progress in this field. Keywords : alternative energy sources, energy resources, German and Russian Energy Policy JEL Classifications: Q40, Q42

Beschreibung: This study examines the short-run and long-run relationships among ICT, electricity consumption, and total factor productivity (TFP) growth for a panel of 26 African countries. The long-run relationship is determined using the three standard panel causality tests. As a whole, empirical results provide clear evidence that ICT, electricity consumption and TFP have a long run equilibrium relationship. However, results also show lots of variation on the impact of electricity consumption and ICT access on TFP. Panel estimations reveal that electricity consumption has a statistically positive impact on TFP growth in 22 countries, but has a negative effect in four countries. Similarly, the sign of the effect of ICT on TFP growth varies across countries, being positive in some and negative in others. Additional insights from the empirical estimations show presence of a two-way causality between electricity consumption and TFP and a unidirectional causality running from ICT to TFP. Overall, results suggest that bridging the infrastructure gap is a vital step for African countries to take towards sustaining economic growth. Keywords: ICT; Electricity consumption; Total factor productivity; Panel Granger Causality JEL Classifications: C14, C32; O3; Q4

Beschreibung: Globally, much attention is being paid to the environment due to the negative effects of environmental degradation on human lives resulting from population growth for instance. With a growing population in Africa it is only natural that the demand for energy for various activities would continue to grow. At present, most of the energy being produced and consumed in Sub-Saharan Africa is derived from non-renewable sources which have triggered calls to shift attention to renewable energy sources. This situation raises some pertinent research questions. Is there a relationship between renewable energy and economic growth in some selected sub-Saharan African countries? Through a panel co-integration approach, the findings revealed that there is a long-run relationship between renewable energy and economic growth in the selected Sub-Saharan African countries. This calls for the implementation of public policies towards the promotion of renewable energies in Africa to combat the negative effects of carbon emissions. Keywords: Renewable energy, Economic growth, Panel data, Co-integration, Sub-Saharan Africa JEL Classifications: K32, P18, Q28

Beschreibung: Taxation plays an important role in a country’s growth target. The taxation program often used by the government to improve tax compliance and tax revenue is called tax amnesty. One of the industrial sectors that is largely influenced by the taxation policy is the energy sector, which includes the mining industry. This study aims to examine the implementation and role of the tax amnesty program in the Indonesian energy sector. Based on the analysis, the study found that the tax amnesty program in the energy sector, especially in the mining industry, still underperforms. In other words, the tax compliance of companies in the energy sector is still low. The study also found that the total tax revenue from the energey sectors is largely determined by the total number of taxpayers. The total number of tax amnesty participants only significantly influences the tax revenue collection in the renewable energy sectors, while, in the oil and gas sector, the total number of tax amnesty participants does not signifiantly influence tax revenue collection. Keywords: Taxation, tax amnesty, energy sector JEL Classifications: H2, Q4

Beschreibung: In the last few years, the development and management of some types of renewable energy industries in Russia is proceeding at a rapid pace, mainly due to government support programs. At the same time, many renewable energy technologies designed for use at the enterprises, primarily in the residential and commercial sectors, have not yet been widely disseminated. In particular, this applies to solar collectors. In this article, we study the factors, preventing the wider distribution of solar collectors in the residential sector from the viewpoint of the theory of energy-efficiency. The focus of research is the informational barriers. The obtained results allow us to draw several practical conclusions about the directions for improving regional energy-efficiency programs currently being implemented in most of Russian regions. Keywords: solar thermal energy, solar collectors, barriers of energy efficiency, survey JEL Classifications : O33, Q42, Q47, Q48

Beschreibung: Policy environment particularly local content legislatures in most emerging economies where oil and gas are produced have become major development agenda of host countries and stakeholders alike. Apparently, efforts are made to enact local content legislature as a means of optimizing oil and gas benefits. Per contra, mixed results had been ascertained with regards to outcome of these policies. This study was conducted to determine how dimensions of policy environment impact on SMEs investment in the Ghanaian Oil and Gas Sector. This study relied on primary data and structured questionnaire to elicit data from 497 Ghanaian SMEs across different industries. Using explanatory research design and binominal regression model we found that Skills and expertise development policy, local workforce education policy, employment policy and macro-economic environment policy significantly increase the odd of SMEs investment in the Ghanaian oil and gas sector. However, technology transfer, research and development policies exert insignificant influence on SMEs investment decisions. This study has implications on oil and gas policy reforms, investment decisions and future research. Particularly we recommend replication of this study within other emerging economies. Keywords: Ghanaian SMEs, Logit Model, Oil and Gas, Local Content Policy, Willingness to Invest JEL Classifications : D02, O17, P31

Beschreibung: Malaysia is currently a developing country which is from agriculture based to manufacturing and service-based economy by implementing Industrialisation Plan in 1985. Thus, the country is consuming more energy due to the rapid industralisation hoping to fully transform into a fully industralised country in future. It is decisive for the government to develop policies to minimize energy consumption and reducing CO2 emissions to protect the environment without impairing the economy. The study looks into the causal relationship between real income (Y), energy consumption (EC) and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission in Malaysian industrial sector during the period of 1980-2014, by applying the time-series econometric techniques. Major findings of this paper consists of long-run relationship exists between Y, EC and CO2 emissions; unidirectional causality relationship from EC and CO2 emissions to Y in both short and long-run; and results of the variance decompositions suggest that the impact of Y and EC towards CO2emissions becomes noticeable only over the longer period of time. Keywords: Industrial Sector, Energy Consumption, Carbon Dioxide Emission JEL Classifications: L16, Q43, O13

Beschreibung: Taiwan became a member of the WTO in 2002. Trade is the engine of growth in Taiwan, accounting for nearly 96.41% of GDP in 2016. Taiwan's economy is highly export-oriented. On the other hand, Taiwan depends on imports for near 98 percent of its energy consumption. This paper analyzes the changes in the intensity of crude oil imports between 1981 and 2016. This research sets several main topics: i) Estimating the imported crude oil intensity of final demand for a quantity analysis. ii) Measure of imported crude oil intensity of final demand. iii) Factor decomposition model for the imported crude oil intensity of final demand. iv) The study could provide an understanding of the properties and production technologies of various industries. The result shows that imported goods intensity is the largest in the crude oil and gas sector. Changes in imported crude oil intensity factors mainly from domestic production structure and final demand structure. Keywords: Economic growth, Imported Crude Oil intensity, Factor Decomposition JEL Classifications : C51, F14, Q43

Beschreibung: The pace of transformation in the electric power industry around the world is gaining momentum due to the rapid development of technology. The possibilities for choosing the electric power company, as well as consumers of their products, are increasing. The role of the distributed energy is enhancing, which contributes to the development of supply and demand in this market. In this regard, approaches to management in the energy markets are changing to address the problems of cross-subsidization. The introduction of new technologies in the management of generating and network facilities makes it possible to become ‘active consumers’ in the energy market. The purpose of our study is to assess the impact of cross-subsidies on changing the active consumers’ behavior in the energy market. We propose a mathematical model of the behavior of ‘active consumers’ of the energy market, which allows the participants of the energy market to make decisions to ‘buy’ or to ‘produce their own’ electrical energy and provides recommendations for determining the economic benefits for active consumers of the energy market. The results of our study showed that the proposed model could be effective for energy sales companies and regulators for multi-agent modeling of consumers' response to tariff mechanisms of demand-side management; it also can be useful for assessing the economic effect for the consumer who participates in demand-side management. Keywords: active consumer, energy market, demand-side management, tariff; mathematical model. JEL Classifications: D24; Q43; M31

Beschreibung: The wide energy supply/demand gap has led the developing economies to the operation of the captive generators. This has contributed in no small way to the carbon footprint in the developing nations. Thus, the energy management initiative could assist in reducing the menace of greenhouse gas emission.  Hence, the energy policy makers and planners have unanimously proposed adoption of demand side management (DSM) technique. Thus the adoption of energy efficiency technique (EET)-a DSM measures and hybrid energy system would be essential for rural electrification. This work investigates the effect of applying energy efficiency measures in rural electrification. A case study of an un-electrified rural settlement in Ibadan, Nigeria was considered. The utilization of EET techniques reduces the emission of CO 2 by 62%, while technical analysis shows the feasibility of a 100% renewable fraction electricity production . Principally, application of energy efficient techniques proved to be economically and environmentally friendly. Keywords: Energy efficiency measures; emission reduction; hybrid energy system; net present cost; renewable energy JEL Classifications: Q4, P28

Beschreibung: In this paper, a predictive tool for the energy consumption of wheat milling process using Multiple Linear Regression (MLR) and a new Energy Performance Indicator (EnPI) is proposed. This EnPI does not only consider the production of flour but also the particle size of flour and added water for softening wheat. The results of the study, carried out in a wheat mill plant in Cuba, show a good coincidence between the predicted and real energy consumption for the developed model. It also demonstrates the effectiveness of EnPI proposed as a tool for management and energy savings in the company under study. Due to the complexity of the proposed model, for obtaining the baseline and estimating the energy saving potential, a probabilistic method was used. It was statistically demonstrated by the determination index (R 2 ), that the new proposed model is superior to the conventional model of energy vs. production. Keywords: energy performance indicators, energy efficiency, wheat milling JEL Classifications:  K32, L94

Beschreibung: Nowadays, the Arctic is referred to as a specific region rich in natural resources, including energy resources, with a severe climate and challenging conditions of doing business, connected not only with the climate itself but also with the existing legislative limitations. According to the researchers of the Arctic, together with the challenges, the Arctic offers huge development opportunities, including those in the oil and gas sector. Alaska is one of the territories of the region which has the richest energy resources. The objective of this study has been to estimate how the factor of the region’s energy resources, which we have related to the oil production growth rates on the Alaska North Slope, affects the economic growth of Alaska. The study methodology is based on both the classical models of economic growth and their modification considering the factor of the energy resources. The vector error correction model was used for evaluating the proposed economic growth model modification. The influence of classical factors, the labor and the capital, on the economic growth of the region in the long-term perspective has been empirically proven. The factor of the energy resources has proved to be significant in the equation describing the economic growth only for the short-term perspective. We believe the influence of this variable on the long-term economic growth to be indirect, exercised through the parameter of capital investment. Keywords: Arctic region, Alaska, the Alaska North Slope, energy resources, economic growth, vector error correction model JEL Classifications: Q32, Q43

Beschreibung: Studies and researches have been carried out on factors affecting crude oil prices; however, in most of these studies factors that have contributed to the fluctuation in oil prices, e.g. days of forward supply, convenience yield, underinvestment and geopolitics have been ignored. The importance of financial variables and geopolitics has also increased volume of transactions that would today represent about thirty-five times the oil traded in the physical market. This paper describes a new model of the most important variables that affect crude oil prices by using a new technique called principal component analysis (PCA) that can capture the Fundamental and geopolitical variables. Results indicate that fundamentals and the role of organization of petroleum exporting countries are the most important variables that affect crude oil prices. Keywords: Oil Price, Regression Analysis, Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries JEL Classifications: E39, C13

Beschreibung: Researchers devoted a great attention to the studying of the solar activity for a long time. The reason is that the Sun has a strong impact on the world and people's lives. An increase in solar activity triggers world magnetic field that causes to increase the physical and mental health of the people. Human capital has a very important role in economic, social and demographic development. Therefore, solar activity can be considered as an important factor for the above detailed areas. The solar activity is defined with different indicators. The results of the econometric models indicate that an increase in solar activity (Wolf number) has a positive effect on rate, natural population growth, marriage and a negative effect on mortality and divorces. The solar activity has a positive impact on world GDP, investment and world oil prices. Keywords: Solar activity, human factor, demographic indicators, natural growth, GDP, world oil price. JEL Classifications : C51; C59; J11; J19

Beschreibung: Oil is the main commodity for all countries in the world. Hence, the fluctuation in the price of the commodity has alarmed policy makers as it can cause severe problems such as food price inflation. The effects of oil prices on food prices have remained a topic of debate. Therefore this study aims to shed some light on the effects of oil prices (RON95, RON97, diesel) on food prices in Malaysia. The ARDL approach was employed and the results show that the price of petrol does not have any effect on food prices. The price of diesel was found to be detrimental to the economy as it can trigger inflation in the long run. However in the short run, the prices of petrol and diesel do not inflict any food price inflation in Malaysia. Therefore, the Malaysian government should control the price of diesel to avert any food price inflation in the long run. Keyword: RON95, RON97, diesel, food prices JEL Classifications: Q18, Q3, Q31

Beschreibung: As the strategies and behaviors of oil and agricultural market participants change across frequencies and over time, this paper extends the literature on the associations between oil and agricultural commodity price fluctuations from the time domain to the time-frequency sphere with the continuous wavelet approach and quarterly data from the Republic of Korea. Our results reveal strong volatilities of oil price at high frequencies from early 1970s to late 2010s, and its interactions with farming product prices indeed vary in the time-frequency space. In particular, grain price strongly co-moves with oil price with in-phase patterns at high frequencies from 1970 to 1985 and at low frequencies from 1986 to 2000, respectively, and it leads oil price after 1985. Moreover, vegetable price exhibits high common power with oil price with in-phase patterns across frequencies from 1960 to 1995, it is led by oil price at low frequencies in our sample. Our analysis implies that considering the time-frequency dynamics of oil and farming product prices is important for market participants and investors to optimally diversify their portfolios and manage the associated risks. Keywords: Crude oil; Agricultural commodity; GARCH model; Wavelet power spectrum; Squared wavelet coherence; Phase difference. JEL Classifications : C63, E31, Q11, Q18, Q43.

Beschreibung: Environmental issues have become an issue of recent interest due to climate change associated with increased levels of pollution and degradation of environmental quality as a result of increased human economic activity. This paper discusses the relationship between fossil fuel consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, and economic growth, the impacts of energy conservation, as well as the projection of energy mix in Indonesia by applying Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) Granger causality, and Long-run Energy Alternative Planning (LEAP). Empirical results show that in the short-run there are unidirectional Granger causalities running from coal consumption to output (growth hypothesis) and from output to oil consumption (conservation hypothesis). However, in the long-run the results suggest unidirectional Granger causality only running from oil consumption to output and carbon emissions. The projection results show that the result of LEAP Projection based on National Master Plan for Energy Conservation (RIKEN) 2005 target has a lower energy saving rate (17.32 percent) compared to the Vision 25/25 target (18 percent). Keywords: Fossil Fuel Consumption; CO 2 Emission; Economic Growth. JEL Classifications: Q43; Q53; O44

Beschreibung: Putting the energy industry on the way of innovations is a task of utmost importance, whose success will shape up future development and competitiveness of emerging economies to a great extent. Research of the main trends of innovative development of distributed generation demonstrated that they are characterized by high spending both on installation of innovative power equipment and on its creation. Our research of financing in the Russian distributed energy and power engineering demonstrated that the bulk of capital investment is done from companies’ own funds, which points to the unaffordability of other funding instruments, credit included.  Consequently, the process of creating and using innovations in distributed energy is accompanied by significant investment risks. This scientific research offers an approach to innovations in distributed energy based on coordination of economic interests of innovation process subjects with the aim of optimizing the task of looking for a threshold price through defining and comparing the effectiveness of a novelty for its creators, consumers and the state with the help of an internal rate of return. The use of a business approach to the introduction of innovations in the distributed energy will coordinate the interests of the producer of innovative equipment and the energy company. Such an approach will ensure co-financing of innovation research and development of all subjects of the relations. Keywords: innovation processes, power equipment, power energy, heat energy, economy, taxation, capital investment, energy efficiency, digital information JEL Classifications: E22, G31

Beschreibung: In this paper we investigate the casual relationship between energy consumption, trade openness, exchange rate and foreign direct investment in Union State of Russia and Belarus for the period from 1997 to 2017. To test the hypothesis and explain the possible casual relations we use the error correction approach. Result of the conducted research show that in the short run trade openness and exchange rate affect foreign direct investment in positive and significant manner. In the long run, energy consumption, trade openness and exchange rate positively affect foreign direct investment. Keywords: Foreign direct investment, energy consumption, trade openness, exchange rate, error correction model JEL Classifications: F21, F31, Q43

Beschreibung: Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows are targeted by every country to give external support to the economy and to fill saving-investment gap as well. This paper highlights the contributing factors of FDI inflows in Saudi Arabia by using annual data of 1970-2015 and by applying Auto-Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) cointegration methodology. This paper finds that Oil Price (OP) and Financial Market Development (FMD) are positively affecting to the FDI inflows. But, increasing Domestic Investment (DI) is found responsible for decreasing FDI inflows. Therefore, domestic investment can be considered as substitute for FDI inflows. This research recommends the Saudi government to promote FMD to support FDI inflows in Saudi Arabia and to diversify from oil dependence.   Keywords: FDI Inflows; Oil Price; Financial Market Development; Domestic Investment JEL Classifications: F21; F41; O16

Beschreibung: Many climate-relevant decisions are taken in other policy areas with only little regard to climate change impacts. In order for climate policy to be successful it has to be integrated in decision-making and legislative processes in basically all policy areas and all levels of government. We analyse the extent of climate policy integration (CPI) in Austrian policy-making via in-depth expert interviews, both on the federal level as well as on the regional level using Styria as case study. The results show a broad range of perceptions regarding the degree of CPI in Austria. The consideration of climate policy issues generally depends on the core competence of the respective institution. Moreover, we found widely diverging views on whether CPI in Austria is too ambitious or too weak. Especially, potential negative impacts of climate policy on competitiveness or employment are seen to hamper a more ambitious implementation of mitigation policies. Keywords: climate policy integration, Austria, survey JEL Classifications: C83, Q48, Q54, Q58

Beschreibung: The role and importance of the energy sector in the development of the Russian economy is currently difficult to overestimate, because among all sectors of the economy it performs a supporting function and is of fundamental importance. Therefore, the main goal of the work is to analyze the characteristics of oil production in Siberia and other regions of Russia. The authors analyzed the global volumes of oil production. It is established that Russia is the top five in oil production. It is established that the production of condensate in the Yamal-Nenets Autonomous District may increase to 21.2 million tons in 2030, ethane – 13 million tons of propane – 8.6 million tons, butane – 4.9 million tons. Also, the authors analyzed the operational equipment breakdowns. Keywords: energy sector, economic policy, resources, General model, refined products. JEL Classifications: Q400, Q430, Q480.