ALBERT

Description: The outdoor events of the 2022 Winter Olympics and Paralympics will be held in the mountain areas of Beijing–Zhangjiakou, North China, where there is a complete reliance on artificial snow production owing to the dry and cold weather conditions. To assess how favorable the meteorological conditions are to snowmaking at the mountain venues, we reconstructed the daily wet-bulb temperature by adopting the thin-plate smoothing spline function method, and then we assessed the potential number of snowmaking days at eight weather stations (928–2098 m MSL) from October to the next April (i.e., the ski season) during the period 1978–2017. Results showed that artificial snow production would have been possible on 121 (±14) to 171 (±12) days on average at the stations with the increases of altitude, and the number of days decreased at rates of 4.3–5.1 days decade−1 across four decades of the study period. The cause of the decrease was the warming trend, which affected the number of days in low-altitude sites simultaneously, but the reduction was delayed with increased elevation. At monthly scale, the number of snowmaking days was robust in wintertime but reduced in other months of the ski season, particularly in March in more recent subperiods at high-altitude stations, which was determined by the increase in high values of daily mean wet-bulb temperature. Further improvements in assessing snowmaking conditions require detailed microclimatic studies to reduce the uncertainties caused by meteorological conditions as well as combination with model-based methods to determine potential future changes.

Description: Pesticide applications during surface inversions can lead to spray drift causing severe damage up to several kilometers off-target. Current regulations in Australia prohibit spray application of certain agricultural chemicals when hazardous surface inversions exist. This severely limits spray opportunities. Surface inversions can be classified as weakly or strongly stable. In the weakly stable case, moderate to strong turbulent mixing is not supportive of long-distance concentrated drift. In the very stable case, weak turbulent mixing can support the transport of high concentrations of fine material over long distances. A review of the literature and our analyses indicate that if the turbulence, as measured by the standard deviation of the vertical wind speed σw, is greater than about 0.2 m s−1 then turbulence-driven mixing and dispersion is moderate to strong and conversely if σw is less than about 0.2 m s−1 then turbulence-driven mixing and dispersion is weaker (an order of magnitude). The concept of maximum downward heat flux as a natural division between the regimes is applied within Monin–Obukhov stability theory, and it is shown that the observed mean σw of 0.2 m s−1 aligns with the ridge line of maximum heat flux in stable conditions. The level of turbulence in the weakly stable regime is comparable to the turbulence typically observed in near-neutral conditions that are recommended under current guidelines as suitable for spraying and is therefore seen as an acceptable prerequisite to avoid nondispersive spraying conditions.

Description: Drought is a common natural disaster that greatly affects the crop yield and water supply in China. However, the spatiotemporal characteristics of drought in China are not well understood. This paper explores the spatial and temporal distributions of droughts in China over the past 40 years using multiscale standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) values calculated by monthly precipitation and temperature data from 612 meteorological stations in China from 1980 to 2019 and combines the space–time cube (STC), Mann–Kendall test, emerging spatiotemporal hot-spot analysis, spatiotemporal clustering, and local outliers for the analysis. The results were as follows: 1) the drought frequency and STC show that there is a significant difference in the spatiotemporal distribution of drought in China, with the most severe drought in Northwest China, followed by the western part of Southwest China and the northern part of North China. 2) The emerging spatiotemporal hot-spot analysis of SPEI6 over the past 40 years reveals two cold spots in subregion 4, indicating that future droughts in the region will be more severe. 3) A local outlier analysis of the multiscale SPEI yields a low–low outlier in western North China, indicating relatively more severe year-round drought in this area than in other areas. The low–high outlier in central China indicates that this region was not dry in the past and that drought will become more severe in this region in the future.

Description: It is argued that the occurrence of cold events decreases under the background of global warming. However, from the mid-1990s to the early 2010s, northern China experienced a period of increasing occurrence of low temperature extremes (LTE). Factors responsible for this increase of LTE are investigated in this analysis. The results show that the interdecadal variation of the winter mean temperature over mid- and high-latitude Eurasia acts as an important thermal background. It is characterized by two dominant modes, the “consistent cooling” pattern and the “warm high-latitude Eurasia and cold midlatitude Eurasia” pattern, from the mid-1990s to the early 2010s. The two patterns jointly provide a cooling background for the increase of LTE in northern China. Meanwhile, though the interdecadal variation of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), Ural blocking (UB), and Siberian high (SH) are all highly correlated with the occurrence of LTE in northern China, the AO is found to play a dominant role. On one hand, the AO directly affects the occurrence of LTE because of its dynamic structure; on the other hand, it takes an indirect effect by affecting the intensity of UB and SH. Further analyses show that the winter temperature in mid- and high-latitude Eurasia and the AO are independent factors that influence the increase of LTE in northern China from the mid-1990s to the early 2010s.

Description: Fine-scale characteristics of summer precipitation over Cang Mountain, a long and narrow mountain with a quasi-north-south orientation in Southwest China, are studied based on station and radar data. Three kinds of rainfall processes are classified according to the initial stations of regional rainfall events (RREs) by utilizing minute-scale rain gauge data. RREs initiating in the western part of Cang Mountain exhibit eastward evolution and tend to reach their maximum rainfall intensity on the mountaintop. The results indicate differences in the precipitation evolution characteristics between short-duration (1–3 h) and long-duration (at least 6 h) events. Short-duration events begin farther from the mountaintop and then propagate eastward, while long-duration events remain longer around the mountaintop. RREs that initiate from the eastern part of Cang Mountain display westward propagation and frequently reach their maximum rainfall intensity over the eastern slope of the mountain. Among them, short-duration events tend to propagate farther west of Cang Mountain at high speeds, but the westward evolution of long-duration events is mainly confined to the eastern part of Cang Mountain. For mountaintop-originated RREs, precipitation quickly reaches its maximum intensity after it starts and then continues for a long time around the mountaintop during the period from late afternoon to early morning. These findings provide references for the fine-scale prediction of precipitation evolution in small-scale mountainous areas.

Description: Recently strong sound wave was proposed to enhance precipitation. The theoretical basis of this proposal has not been effectively studied either experimentally or theoretically. Based on the microscopic parameters of atmospheric cloud physics, this paper solved the complex nonlinear differential equation to show the movement characteristics of cloud droplets under the action of sound waves. The motion process of individual cloud droplet in a cloud layer in the acoustic field is discussed as well as the relative motion between two cloud droplets. The effects of different particle sizes and sound field characteristics on particle motion and collision are studied to analyze the dynamic effects of thunder-level sound waves on cloud droplets. The amplitude of velocity variation has positive correlation with Sound Pressure Level (SPL) and negative correlation with the frequency of the surrounding sound field. Under the action of low-frequency sound waves with sufficient intensity, individual cloud droplets could be forced to oscillate significantly. The droplet smaller than 40μm can be easily driven by sound waves of 50 Hz and 123.4 dB. The calculation of the collision process of two droplets reveals that the disorder of motion for polydisperse droplets is intensified, resulting in the broadening of the collision time range and spatial range. When the acoustic frequency is less than 100Hz (@ 123.4dB) or the Sound Pressure Level (SPL) is greater than 117.4dB (@ 50Hz), the sound wave can affect the collision of cloud droplets significantly. This study provides theoretical perspective of acoustic effect to the microphysics of atmospheric clouds.

Description: Sub-daily precipitation extremes are high-impact events that can result in flash floods, sewer system overload, or landslides. Several studies have reported an intensification of projected short-duration extreme rainfall in a warmer future climate. Traditionally, regional climate models (RCMs) are run at a coarse resolution using deep-convection parameterization for these extreme events. As computational resources are continuously ramping up, these models are run at convection-permitting resolution, thereby partly resolving the small-scale precipitation events explicitly. To date, a comprehensive evaluation of convection-permitting models is still missing. We propose an evaluation strategy for simulated sub-daily rainfall extremes that summarizes the overall RCM performance. More specifically, the following metrics are addressed: the seasonal/diurnal cycle, temperature and humidity dependency, temporal scaling and spatio-temporal clustering. The aim of this paper is: (i) to provide a statistical modeling framework for some of the metrics, based on extreme value analysis, (ii) to apply the evaluation metrics to a micro-ensemble of convection-permitting RCM simulations over Belgium, against high-frequency observations, and (iii) to investigate the added value of convection-permitting scales with respect to coarser 12-km resolution. We find that convection-permitting models improved precipitation extremes on shorter time scales (i.e, hourly or two-hourly), but not on 6h-24h time scales. Some metrics such as the diurnal cycle or the Clausius-Clapeyron rate are improved by convection-permitting models, whereas the seasonal cycle appears robust across spatial scales. On the other hand, the spatial dependence is poorly represented at both convection-permitting scales and coarser scales. Our framework provides perspectives for improving high-resolution atmospheric numerical modeling and datasets for hydrological applications.

Description: Extratropical cyclones are the primary driver of sensible weather conditions across the mid-latitudes of North America, often generating various types of precipitation, gusty non-convective winds, and severe convective storms throughout portions of the annual cycle. Given ongoing modifications of the zonal atmospheric thermal gradient due to anthropogenic forcing, analyzing the historical characteristics of these systems presents an important research question. Using the North American Regional Reanalysis, boreal cool-season (October–April) extratropical cyclones for the period 1979–2019 were identified, tracked, and classified based on their genesis location. Additionally, bomb cyclones—extratropical cyclones that recorded a latitude normalized pressure fall of 24 hPa in 24-hr—were identified and stratified for additional analysis. Cyclone lifespan across the domain exhibits a log-linear relationship, with 99% of all cyclones tracked lasting less than 8 days. On average, ≈ 270 cyclones were tracked across the analysis domain per year, with an average of ≈ 18 year−1 being classified as bomb cyclones. The average number of cyclones in the analysis domain has decreased in the last 20 years from 290 year−1 during the period 1979–1999 to 250 year−1 during the period 2000–2019. Spatially, decreasing trends in the frequency of cyclone track counts were noted across a majority of the analysis domain, with the most significant decreases found in Canada’s Northwest Territories, Colorado, and east of the Graah mountain range. No significant interannual or spatial trends were noted with bomb cyclone frequency.

Description: Based on daily meteorological observation data in South China (SC) from 1967 to 2018, the spatiotemporal characteristics of the precipitation in SC over the past 52 years were studied. Only 8% of the stations showed a significant increase in annual rainfall, and there was no significant negative trend at any weather stations at a confidence level of 90%. Monthly rainfall showed the most significant decreasing and increasing trends in April and November, respectively. During the entire flooding season from April to September, the monthly rainfall at the weather stations in the coastal areas showed almost no significant change. The annual rainfall gradually decreased toward the inland area with the central and coastal areas of Guangdong Province as the high-value rainfall center. By using the empirical orthogonal function decomposition method, it was found that the two main monthly rainfall modes had strong annual signals. The first modal spatial distribution was basically consistent with the average annual rainfall distribution. Based on the environmental background analysis, it was found that during the flooding season, the main water vapor to SC was transported by the East Asian summer monsoon and the Indian summer monsoon. In late autumn and winter, the prevailing wind from northeastern China could not bring much water vapor to SC and led to little precipitation in these two seasons. The spatial distribution of precipitation in SC during summer was more consistent with the moisture flux divergence distribution of the bottom layer from 925 hPa to 1000 hPa, rather than the layer from 700 hPa to 1000 hPa.

Description: We analyze how winter thaw events (TE; T〉0°C) are changing on the summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire using three metrics: the number of TE, number of thaw hours, and number of thaw degree-hours for temperature and dewpoint for winters from 1935-36 to 2019-20. The impact of temperature-only-TE and dewpoint-TE on snow depth are compared to quantify the different impacts of sensible-only and sensible-and-latent heating, respectively. Results reveal that temperature- and dewpoint-TE for all metrics increased at a statistically significant rate (p