ALBERT

All Library Books, journals and Electronic Records Telegrafenberg

X
feed icon rss

Your email was sent successfully. Check your inbox.

An error occurred while sending the email. Please try again.

Proceed reservation?

Export
Filter
  • Articles  (41,148)
Collection
  • Articles  (41,148)
Source
Publisher
Years
Journal
Topic
  • 11
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Impact of Assimilating GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper Flash Extent Density Data on Severe Convection Forecasts in a Warn-on-Forecast System (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite-R (GOES-R) Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) instrument detects total lightning rate at high temporal and spatial resolution over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. The GLM observations provide detection and monitoring of deep electrified convection. This study explores the impact of assimilating the GLM-derived flash extent density (FED) on the analyses and short-term forecasts of two severe weather events into an experimental Warn-on-Forecast system (WoFS) using the ensemble Kalman filter data assimilation technique. Sensitivity experiments are conducted using two tornadic severe storm events: one with a line of individual supercells and the other one with both isolated cells and a severe convective line. The control experiment (CTRL) assimilates conventional surface observations and geostationary satellite cloud water path into WoFS. Additional experiments also assimilate either GLM FED or radar data (RAD), or a combination of both (RAD+GLM). It is found that assimilating GLM data in the absence of radar data into the WoFS improves the short-term forecast skill over CTRL in one case, while in the other case it degrades the forecast skill by generating weaker cold pools and overly suppressing convection, mainly owing to assimilating zero FED values in the trailing stratiform regions. Assimilating unexpectedly low FED values in some regions due to low GLM detection efficiency also accounts for the poorer forecasts. Although RAD provides superior forecasts over GLM, the combination RAD+GLM shows further gains in both cases. Additional observation operators should consider different storm types and GLM detection efficiency.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 12
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Centrifugal Waves in Tornado-Like Vortices: Kelvin’s Solutions and Their Applications to Multiple-Vortex Development and Vortex Breakdown (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-10-01
    Description: About 140 years ago, Lord Kelvin derived the equations describing waves that travel along the axis of concentrated vortices such as tornadoes. Although Kelvin’s vortex waves, also known as centrifugal waves, feature prominently in the engineering and fluid dynamics literature, they have not attracted as much attention in the field of atmospheric science. To remedy this circumstance, Kelvin’s elegant derivation is retraced, and slightly generalized, to obtain solutions for a hierarchy of vortex flows that model basic features of tornado-like vortices. This treatment seeks to draw attention to the important work that Lord Kelvin did in this field, and reveal the remarkably rich structure and dynamics of these waves. Kelvin’s solutions help explain the vortex breakdown phenomenon routinely observed in modeled tornadoes, and it is shown that his work is compatible with the widely used criticality condition put forth by Benjamin in 1962. Moreover, it is demonstrated that Kelvin’s treatment, with the slight generalization, includes unstable wave solutions that have been invoked to explain some aspects of the formation of multiple-vortex tornadoes. The analysis of the unstable solutions also forms the basis for determining whether, for example, an axisymmetric or a spiral vortex breakdown occurs. Kelvin’s work thus helps explain some of the visible features of tornado-like vortices.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 13
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Diverse synoptic weather patterns of warm-season heavy rainfall events in South Korea (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-15
    Description: This study identifies diverse synoptic weather patterns of warm-season heavy rainfall events (HREs) in South Korea. The HREs not directly connected to tropical cyclones (TCs) (81.1%) are typically associated with a midlatitude cyclone from eastern China, the expanded North Pacific high and strong southwesterly moisture transport in between. They are frequent both in the first (early summer) and second rainy periods (late summer) with impacts on the south coast and west of the mountainous region. In contrast, the HREs resulting from TCs (18.9%) are caused by the synergetic interaction between the TC and meandering midlatitude flow, especially in the second rainy period. The strong south-southeasterly moisture transport makes the southern and eastern coastal regions prone to the TC-driven HREs. By applying a self-organizing map algorithm to the non-TC HREs, their surface weather patterns are further classified into six clusters. Clusters 1 and 3 exhibit frontal boundary between the low and high with differing relative strengths. Clusters 2 and 5 feature an extratropical cyclone migrating from eastern China under different background sea-level pressure patterns. Cluster 4 is characterized by the expanded North Pacific high with no organized negative sea-level pressure anomaly, and cluster 6 displays a development of a moisture pathway between the continental and oceanic highs. Each cluster exhibits a distinct spatio-temporal occurrence distribution. The result provides useful guidance for predicting the HREs by depicting important factors to be differently considered depending on their synoptic categorization.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 14
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    The Impact of Midlevel Shear Orientation on the Longevity of and Downdraft Location and Tornado-like Vortex Formation within Simulated Supercells (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-14
    Description: Despite an increased understanding of environments favorable for tornadic supercells, it is still sometimes unknown why one favorable environment produces many long-tracked tornadic supercells and another seemingly equally-favorable environment produces only short-lived supercells. One relatively unexplored environmental parameter that may differ between such environments is the degree of backing or veering of the midlevel shear vector, especially considering that such variations may not be captured by traditional supercell or tornado forecast parameters. We investigate the impact of the 3-6 km shear vector orientation on simulated supercell evolution by systematically varying it across a suite of idealized simulations. We found that the orientation of the 3-6 km shear vector dictates where precipitation loading is maximized in the storms, and thus alters the storm-relative location of downdrafts and outflow surges. When the shear vector is backed, outflow surges generally occur northwest of an updraft, produce greater convergence beneath the updraft, and do not disrupt inflow, meaning that the storm is more likely to persist and produce more tornado-like vortices (TLVs). When the shear vector is veered, outflow surges generally occur north of an updraft, produce less convergence beneath the updraft, and sometimes undercut it with outflow, causing it to tilt at low levels, sometimes leading to storm dissipation. These storms are shorter lived and thus also produce fewer TLVs. Our simulations indicate that the relative orientation of the 3-6 km shear vector may impact supercell longevity and hence the time period over which tornadoes may form.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 15
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    A Comparison of Arctic and Atlantic Cyclone Predictability (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-13
    Description: Arctic cyclones (ACs) are synoptic scale features that can be associated with strong, intense winds over the Arctic region for long periods of time, potentially leading to rapid declines of sea ice during the summer. As a consequence, sea ice predictions may rely on the predictability of cyclone-related wind speed and direction, which critically depends on the cyclone track and intensity. Despite this, there are relatively few studies that have documented the predictability of ACs during the summer, beyond a few case studies, nor has there been an extensive comparison of whether these cyclones are more or less predictable relative to comparable midlatitude cyclones, which have been studied in greater detail. The goal of this study is to document the practical predictability of AC position and intensity forecasts over 100 cases and compare it to 89 Atlantic basin midlatitude cyclones using the Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) Reforecast V2. This dataset contains 11-member ensemble forecasts initialized daily from 1985-present using a fixed model. In this study, 1 and 3 day forecast hours are compared, where predictability is defined as the ensemble mean root mean square error and ensemble standard deviation (SD). Although Atlantic basin cyclone tracks are characterized by higher predictability relative to comparable ACs, intensity predictability is higher for ACs. In addition, storms characterized by low ensemble SD and predictability are found in regions of higher baroclinic instability than storms characterized by high predictability. There appears to be little, if any, relationship between latent heat release and precipitable water and predictability.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 16
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Using the (3N)-dimensional generalized Lorenz systems as a testbed for data assimilation: The ensemble Kalman filter (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: The feasibility of using a (3N)-dimensional generalization of the Lorenz system in testing a traditional implementation of the ensemble Kalman filter is explored through numerical experiments. The generalization extends the Lorenz system, known as the Lorenz ’63 model, into a (3N)-dimensional nonlinear system for any positive integer N. Because the extension involves inclusion of additional wavenumber modes, raising the dimension allows the system to resolve smaller-scale motions, a unique characteristic of the present generalization that can be relevant to real modeling scenarios. Model imperfections are simulated by assuming a high-dimensional generalized Lorenz system as the true system and a generalized system of dimension less than or equal to the dimension of the true system as the model system. Different scenarios relevant to data assimilation practices are simulated by varying the dimensional-differences between the model and true systems, ensemble size, and observation frequency and accuracy. It is suggested that the present generalization of the Lorenz system is an interesting and flexible tool for evaluating the effectiveness of data assimilation methods and a meaningful addition to the portfolio of testbed systems that includes the Lorenz ’63 and ’96 models, especially considering its relationship with the Lorenz ’63 model. The results presented in this study can serve as useful benchmarks for testing other data assimilation methods besides the ensemble Kalman filter.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 17
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Towards All-sky Assimilation of Microwave Temperature Sounding Channels in Environment Canada’s Global Deterministic Weather Prediction System (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: The all-sky assimilation of radiances from microwave instruments is developed in the 4D-EnVar analysis system at Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC). Assimilation of cloud-affected radiances from Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit A (AMSUA) temperature sounding channels 4 and 5 for non-precipitating scenes over the ocean surface is the focus of this study. Cloud-affected radiances are discarded in the ECCC operational data assimilation system due to the limitations of forecast model physics, radiative transfer models, and the strong non-linearity of the observation operator. In addition to using symmetric estimate of innovation standard deviation for quality control, a state-dependent observation error inflation is employed at the analysis stage. The background state clouds are scaled by a factor of 0.5 to compensate for a systematic overestimation by the forecast model, before being used in the observation operator. The changes in the fit of the background state to observations show mixed results. The number of AMSUA channels 4 and 5 assimilated observations in the all-sky experiment is 5-12% higher than in the operational system. The all-sky approach improves temperature analysis when verified against ECMWF operational analysis in the areas where the extra cloud-affected observations were assimilated. Statistically significant reductions in error standard deviation by 1-4% for the analysis and forecasts of temperature, specific humidity, and horizontal wind speed up to maximum 4 days were achieved in the all-sky experiment in the lower troposphere. These improvements result mainly from the use of cloud information for computing the observation-minus-background departures. The operational implementation of all-sky assimilation is planned for Fall 2021.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 18
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    A constraint method for supersaturation in a variational data assimilation system (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-09-09
    Description: The reproducibility of precipitation in the early stages of forecasts, often called a spin-down or spin-up problem, has been a significant issue in numerical weather prediction. This problem is caused by moisture imbalance in the analysis data, and in the case of the Japan Meteorological Agency’s (JMA’s) mesoscale data assimilation system JNoVA, we found that the imbalance stems from the existence of unrealistic supersaturated states in the minimal solution of the cost function in JNoVA. Based on the theory of constrained optimization problems, we implemented an exterior penalty function method for the mixing ratio within JNoVA to suppress unrealistic supersaturated states. The advantage of this method is the simplicity of its theory and implementation. The results of twin data assimilation cycle experiments conducted for the Heavy Rain Event of July 2018 over Japan show that—with the new method—unrealistic supersaturated states are reduced successfully, negative temperature bias to the observations is alleviated, and a sharper distribution of the mixing ratio is obtained. These changes help to initiate the development of convection at the proper location and improve the fractions skill score (FSS) of precipitation in the early stages of the forecast. From these results, we conclude that the initial shock caused by moisture imbalance is mitigated by implementing the penalty function method, and the new moisture balance has a positive impact on the reproducibility of precipitation in the early stages of forecasts.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 19
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Convective Cloud Clusters and Squall Lines along coastal Amazon (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-27
    Description: Mesoscale convective cloud clusters develop and organize in the form of squall lines along the coastal Amazon in the afternoon hours and propagate inland during the evening hours. The frequency, location, organization into lines and movement of the convective systems are determined by analyzing the “precipitation features” obtained from the TRMM satellite for the period 1998-2014. The convective clusters and their alignments into Amazon coastal squall lines are more frequent from December through July and they mostly stay within 170 km from the coast line. Their development and movement in the afternoon and evening hours of about 14 m s-1 are helped by the sea breeze. Negative phase of Atlantic Dipole and La Niña combined increase the frequency of convective clusters over coastal Amazon. Composite environmental conditions of 13 large Amazon coastal squall line cases in April show that conditional instability increases from 09 LT to 12 LT and the wind profiles show a jet like structure in low levels. The differences in the vertical profiles of temperature and humidity between the large squall line composites and no-squall line composites are weak. However, appreciable increase in the mean value of CAPE from 09 LT to 15 LT is found in large squall line composite. The mean mixing ratio of mixed layer at 09 LT in La Niña situations is significantly larger in the large squall line composite. Thus, CAPE and mixed layer mixing ratio are considered promising indicators of the convective activity over the coastal belt of the Amazon Basin.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
  • 20
    facet.materialart.
    Unknown
    Compressible EULAG dynamical core in COSMO: convective-scale Alpine weather forecasts (2021)
    American Meteorological Society
    Details
    Publication Date: 2021-08-25
    Description: This paper presents the semi-implicit compressible EULAG as a new dynamical core for convective-scale numerical weather prediction. The core is implemented within the infrastructure of the operational model of the Consortium for Small Scale Modeling (COSMO), forming the NWP COSMO-EULAG model (CE). This regional high-resolution implementation of the dynamical core complements its global implementation in the Finite-Volume Module of ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System. The paper documents the first operational-like application of the dynamical core for realistic weather forecasts. After discussing the formulation of the core and its coupling with the host model, the paper considers several high-resolution prognostic experiments over complex Alpine orography. Standard verification experiments examine the sensitivity of the CE forecast to the choice of the advection routine and assess the forecast skills against those of the default COSMO Runge-Kutta dynamical core at 2.2 km grid size showing a general improvement. The skills are also compared using satellite observations for a weak-flow convective Alpine weather case-study, showing favorable results. Additional validation of the new CE framework for partly convection-resolving forecasts using 1.1 km, 0.55 km, 0.22 km, and 0.1 km grids, designed to challenge its numerics and test the dynamics-physics coupling, demonstrates its high robustness in simulating multi-phase flows over complex mountain terrain, with slopes reaching 85 degrees, and the flow’s realistic representation.
    Print ISSN: 0027-0644
    Electronic ISSN: 1520-0493
    Topics: Geography , Geosciences , Physics
    Published by American Meteorological Society
    Location Call Number Expected Availability
    BibTip Others were also interested in ...
    PAPER CURRENT
Close ⊗
This website uses cookies and the analysis tool Matomo. More information can be found here...