ALBERT

Description: Recently, it has been established that interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) can dramatically affect both trapped electron fluxes in the outer radiation belt and precipitating electron fluxes lost from the belt into the atmosphere. Precipitating electron fluxes and energies can vary over a range of timescales during these events. These variations depend on the initial energy and location of the electron population and the ICME characteristics and structures. One important factor controlling electron dynamics is the magnetic field orientation within the ejecta that is an integral part of the ICME. In this study, we examine Van Allen Probes (RBSPs) and Polar Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POESs) data to explore trapped and precipitating electron fluxes during two ICMEs. The ejecta in the selected ICMEs have magnetic cloud characteristics that exhibit the opposite sense of the rotation of the north–south magnetic field component (BZ). RBSP data are used to study trapped electron fluxes in situ, while POES data are used for electron fluxes precipitating into the upper atmosphere. The trapped and precipitating electron fluxes are qualitatively analysed to understand their variation in relation to each other and to the magnetic cloud rotation during these events. Inner magnetospheric wave activity was also estimated using RBSP and Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) data. In each event, the largest changes in the location and magnitude of both the trapped and precipitating electron fluxes occurred during the southward portion of the magnetic cloud. Significant changes also occurred during the end of the sheath and at the sheath–ejecta boundary for the cloud with south to north magnetic field rotation, while the ICME with north to south rotation had significant changes at the end boundary of the cloud. The sense of rotation of BZ and its profile also clearly affects the coherence of the trapped and/or precipitating flux changes, timing of variations with respect to the ICME structures, and flux magnitude of different electron populations. The differing electron responses could therefore imply partly different dominant acceleration mechanisms acting on the outer radiation belt electron populations as a result of opposite magnetic cloud rotation.

Description: Most available verification metrics for ensemble forecasts focus on univariate quantities. That is, they assess whether the ensemble provides an adequate representation of the forecast uncertainty about the quantity of interest at a particular location and time. For spatially indexed ensemble forecasts, however, it is also important that forecast fields reproduce the spatial structure of the observed field and represent the uncertainty about spatial properties such as the size of the area for which heavy precipitation, high winds, critical fire weather conditions, etc., are expected. In this article we study the properties of the fraction of threshold exceedance (FTE) histogram, a new diagnostic tool designed for spatially indexed ensemble forecast fields. Defined as the fraction of grid points where a prescribed threshold is exceeded, the FTE is calculated for the verification field and separately for each ensemble member. It yields a projection of a – possibly high-dimensional – multivariate quantity onto a univariate quantity that can be studied with standard tools like verification rank histograms. This projection is appealing since it reflects a spatial property that is intuitive and directly relevant in applications, though it is not obvious whether the FTE is sufficiently sensitive to misrepresentation of spatial structure in the ensemble. In a comprehensive simulation study we find that departures from uniformity of the FTE histograms can indeed be related to forecast ensembles with biased spatial variability and that these histograms detect shortcomings in the spatial structure of ensemble forecast fields that are not obvious by eye. For demonstration, FTE histograms are applied in the context of spatially downscaled ensemble precipitation forecast fields from NOAA's Global Ensemble Forecast System.

Description: In this paper, the performance of three machine-learning methods for predicting short-term evolution and for reproducing the long-term statistics of a multiscale spatiotemporal Lorenz 96 system is examined. The methods are an echo state network (ESN, which is a type of reservoir computing; hereafter RC–ESN), a deep feed-forward artificial neural network (ANN), and a recurrent neural network (RNN) with long short-term memory (LSTM; hereafter RNN–LSTM). This Lorenz 96 system has three tiers of nonlinearly interacting variables representing slow/large-scale (X), intermediate (Y), and fast/small-scale (Z) processes. For training or testing, only X is available; Y and Z are never known or used. We show that RC–ESN substantially outperforms ANN and RNN–LSTM for short-term predictions, e.g., accurately forecasting the chaotic trajectories for hundreds of numerical solver's time steps equivalent to several Lyapunov timescales. The RNN–LSTM outperforms ANN, and both methods show some prediction skills too. Furthermore, even after losing the trajectory, data predicted by RC–ESN and RNN–LSTM have probability density functions (pdf's) that closely match the true pdf – even at the tails. The pdf of the data predicted using ANN, however, deviates from the true pdf. Implications, caveats, and applications to data-driven and data-assisted surrogate modeling of complex nonlinear dynamical systems, such as weather and climate, are discussed.

Description: This paper develops an electromechanical TWUSM (traveling-wave ultrasonic motor) model combining the driving circuit with the motor itself. An equivalent circuit model substituted for the piezoelectric ceramics is designed in the driving circuit model to obtain accurate input currents and powers. Then teeth discretization is implemented in the stator–rotor contact model, which can calculate the interaction forces more accurately. After building the complete model of TWUSM, a typical startup–stopping process is divided into five stages by evaluating the changes in contact status and driving forces. Finally, the fitness of transient responses of the rotor speed increasing from 55 % to 89 % shows that the proposed model fits better than the one without teeth discretization, and the experimental tests under various driving parameters verify the effectiveness of the model.

Description: As a type of spatial transmission mechanism, noncircular bevel gears can transfer power and motion between two intersecting axes with variable transmission. In this paper, the relation of arc length is expressed by Angle in spatial polar coordinate system, utilizing the spherical triangle theorem, the parametric equations of base curves are established by applying arc length relation. Further, an example is given to verify whether pitch curves is concave on osculating circle of noncircular bevel gear section cone. Similarly, this example illustrates the cause of the mutation for the base curves.

Description: In this study, the new source of O(1D) in the mesopause region due to the process OH(ν≥5)+O(3P)→OH(0≤ν′≤ν-5)+O(1D) is applied to SABER data to estimate the nighttime O(1D) distributions for the years 2003–2005. It is found that O(1D) evolutions in these years are very similar to each other. Depending on the month, monthly averaged O(1D) distributions show two to four maxima with values up to 340 cm−3 which are localized in height (at ∼92–96 km) and latitude (at ∼20–40 and ∼60–80∘ S, N). Annually averaged distributions in 2003–2005 have one weak maximum at ∼93 km and ∼65∘ S with values of 150–160 cm−3 and three pronounced maxima (with values up to 230 cm−3) at ∼95 km and ∼35∘ S, at ∼94 km and ∼40∘ N and at ∼93 km and ∼65–75∘ N, correspondingly. In general, there is slightly more O(1D) in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. The obtained results are a useful data set for subsequent estimation of nighttime O(1D) influence on the chemistry of the mesopause region.

Description: This article presents the results of a bifurcation analysis of a simple energy balance model (EBM) for the future climate of the Earth. The main focus is on the following question: can the nonlinear processes intrinsic to atmospheric physics, including natural positive feedback mechanisms, cause a mathematical bifurcation of the climate state, as a consequence of continued anthropogenic forcing by rising greenhouse gas emissions? Our analysis shows that such a bifurcation could cause an abrupt change to a drastically different climate state in the EBM, which is warmer and more equable than any climate existing on Earth since the Pliocene epoch. In previous papers, with this EBM adapted to paleoclimate conditions, it was shown to exhibit saddle-node and cusp bifurcations, as well as hysteresis. The EBM was validated by the agreement of its predicted bifurcations with the abrupt climate changes that are known to have occurred in the paleoclimate record, in the Antarctic at the Eocene–Oligocene transition (EOT) and in the Arctic at the Pliocene–Paleocene transition (PPT). In this paper, the EBM is adapted to fit Anthropocene climate conditions, with emphasis on the Arctic and Antarctic climates. The four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) considered by the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) are used to model future CO2 concentrations, corresponding to different scenarios of anthropogenic activity. In addition, the EBM investigates four naturally occurring nonlinear feedback processes which magnify the warming that would be caused by anthropogenic CO2 emissions alone. These four feedback mechanisms are ice–albedo feedback, water vapour feedback, ocean heat transport feedback, and atmospheric heat transport feedback. The EBM predicts that a bifurcation resulting in a catastrophic climate change, to a pre-Pliocene-like climate state, will occur in coming centuries for an RCP with unabated anthropogenic forcing, amplified by these positive feedbacks. However, the EBM also predicts that appropriate reductions in carbon emissions may limit climate change to a more tolerable continuation of what is observed today. The globally averaged version of this EBM has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 4.34 K, near the high end of the likely range reported by the IPCC.

Description: Forecasting the thermosphere (the atmosphere's uppermost layer, from about 90 to 800 km altitude) is crucial to space-related applications, from space mission design to re-entry operations, space surveillance and more. Thermospheric dynamics is directly linked to the solar dynamics through the solar UV (ultraviolet) input, which is highly variable, and through the solar wind and plasma fluxes impacting Earth's magnetosphere. The solar input is non-periodic and non-stationary, with long-term modulations from the solar rotation and the solar cycle and impulsive components, due to magnetic storms. Proxies of the solar input exist and may be used to forecast the thermosphere, such as the F10.7 radio flux and the Mg II EUV (extreme-ultraviolet) flux. They relate to physical processes of the solar atmosphere. Other indices, such as the Ap geomagnetic index, connect with Earth's geomagnetic environment. We analyse the proxies' time series comparing them with in situ density data from the ESA (European Space Agency) GOCE (Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer) gravity mission, operational from March 2009 to November 2013, therefore covering the full rising phase of solar cycle 24, exposing the entire dynamic range of the solar input. We use empirical mode decomposition (EMD), an analysis technique appropriate to non-periodic, multi-scale signals. Data are taken at an altitude of 260 km, exceptionally low for a low-Earth-orbit (LEO) satellite, where density variations are the single most important perturbation to satellite dynamics. We show that the synthesized signal from optimally selected combinations of proxy basis functions, notably Mg II for the solar flux and Ap for the plasma component, shows a very good agreement with thermospheric data obtained by GOCE, during periods of low and medium solar activity. In periods of maximum solar activity, density enhancements are also well represented. The Mg II index proves to be, in general, a better proxy than the F10.7 index for modelling the solar flux because of its specific response to the UV spectrum, whose variations have the largest impact over thermospheric density.

Description: We present multi-period modulation of energetic electron flux observed by the BeiDa Imaging Electron Spectrometer (BD-IES) on board a Chinese navigation satellite on 13 October 2015. Electron flux oscillations were observed at a dominant period of ∼190 s in consecutive energy channels from ∼50 to ∼200 keV. Interestingly, flux modulations at a secondary period of ∼400 s were also unambiguously observed. The oscillating signals at different energy channels were observed in sequence, with a time delay of up to ∼900 s. This time delay far exceeds the oscillating periods, by which we speculate that the modulations were caused by localized ultra-low-frequency (ULF) waves. To verify the wave–particle interaction scenario, we revisit the classic drift-resonance theory. We adopt the calculation method therein to derive the electron energy change in a multi-period ULF wave field. Then, based on the modeled energy change, we construct the flux variations to be observed by a virtual spacecraft. The predicted particle signatures well agree with the BD-IES observations. We demonstrate that the particle energy change might be underestimated in the conventional theories, as the Betatron acceleration induced by the curl of the wave electric field was often omitted. In addition, we show that azimuthally localized waves would notably extend the energy width of the resonance peak, whereas the drift-resonance interaction is only efficient for particles at the resonant energy in the original theory.

Description: Stimulated Brillouin scattering during electron gyro-harmonic heating at EISCAT Annales Geophysicae, 33, 983-990, 2015 Author(s): H. Y. Fu, W. A. Scales, P. A. Bernhardt, S. J. Briczinski, M. J. Kosch, A. Senior, M. T. Rietveld, T. K. Yeoman, and J. M. Ruohoniemi Observations of secondary radiation, stimulated electromagnetic emission (SEE), produced during ionospheric modification experiments using ground-based, high-power, high-frequency (HF) radio waves are considered. The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) facility is capable of generating narrowband SEE in the form of stimulated Brillouin scatter (SBS) and stimulated ion Bernstein scatter (SIBS) in the SEE spectrum. Such narrowband SEE spectral lines have not been reported using the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) heater facility before. This work reports the first EISCAT results of narrowband SEE spectra and compares them to SEE previously observed at HAARP during electron gyro-harmonic heating. An analysis of experimental SEE data shows observations of emission lines within 100 Hz of the pump frequency, interpreted as SBS, during the 2012 July EISCAT campaign. Experimental results indicate that SBS strengthens as the pump frequency approaches the third electron gyro-harmonic. Also, for different heater antenna beam angles, the CUTLASS radar backscatter induced by HF radio pumping is suppressed near electron gyro-harmonics, whereas electron temperature enhancement weakens as measured by EISCAT/UHF radar. The main features of these new narrowband EISCAT observations are generally consistent with previous SBS measurements at HAARP.