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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Opening of China's Trade, Labour Market Reform and Impact on Rural Wages (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Government policy in China supports urban wages at the expense of returns to farm labour. A model is developed to estimate how WTO accession and complementary labour market reform will influence factor returns in China. With WTO membership, a larger cut in manufacturing tariffs compared to agriculture will improve agriculture's terms of trade and will raise the agricultural wage. Complementary labour market reforms will further boost farm wages as labour exits agriculture in large numbers. We estimate that WTO membership and complementary labour market reforms will result in a decline in the agricultural labour force by about 25 per cent.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00708.x
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Assessing the Benefits of Trade Facilitation: A Global Perspective (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper estimates the relationship between trade facilitation and trade flows using a panel of disaggregated manufactured goods for the 2000–2001 period for 75 countries. Four categories of trade facilitation are defined, measured and assessed for their impact on bilateral trade flows using a gravity model. The four measures of trade facilitation are: port infrastructure (air and maritime), customs environment, regulatory environments and e-business infrastructure. The results suggest that raising global capacity halfway to the world average in the four areas would increase trade by $377 billion. Most regions of the world increase exports more than imports. In large part, this result stems from increased exports to OECD markets that is obtained through a country's own effort to improve ports, customs, regulations and services infrastructures. In addition, the results suggest that reform and capacity building in trade facilitation in areas related to GATT Articles V, VIII and X that are under discussion at the World Trade Organisation could expand trade and exports significantly. Many of the reform measures necessary to achieve this goal need not necessarily require large-scale investment projects, but rather action in legal and administrative reform to facilitate trade.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00709.x
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Trade and the Effect of Public Investment on Regional Inequalities in Heterogeneously Integrated Areas (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Regional integration, it is argued, challenges the distribution of economic activity among regions. However, the government role in shifting the patterns of regional inequalities is still under debate and has received small comprehensive empirical evidence. This paper examines the hypothesis of trade as channelling public investment and, thus, perpetuating regional inequalities. We argue that the interplay of public and private investment plays a key role in stimulating trade and economic activity. To avoid problems of cross-country heterogeneity and comparability this study examines data for two countries; Mexico and Spain, both followers of trade integration arrangements. Findings indicate that regional inequalities in Mexico are significantly explained by differences in export capacity serving to boost private investment whereas inequalities in Spain are appreciably driven by previous endowments and private capital formation.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00710.x
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
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    Book Reviews (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Books reviewed:TAKATOSHI ITO and ANNE O. KRUEGER (eds.), Governance, Regulation, and Privatization in The Asia-Pacific Region.ELHANAN HELPMAN, The Mystery of Economic Growth.DANIEL H. ROSEN, SCOTT ROZELLE and JIKUN HUANG, Roots of Competitiveness: China's Evolving Agriculture InterestsJAMES J. HECKMAN and CARMEN PAGÉS (eds.), Law and Employment: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00712.x
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Sweetening the Transition in EU Sugar Preferences: The Case of Fiji (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The European Union grants preferential market access for sugar to a group of African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries. Sugar exported under these quotas receives between two and three times the world price. These trade preferences are intended as a form of aid, but they tend to stifle productivity growth in the recipient countries. The European Union could better assist ACP countries by providing direct development assistance in place of sugar subsidies, for example by investing the aid transfers into infrastructure or other essential public services. This paper tests this proposition for the case of Fiji using a computable general-equilibrium model. It is found that significant gains in economic performance can be achieved by employing such alternative strategies for aid. These gains are particularly strong over the medium to long term when the aid funds are diverted to infrastructure development. However, there are issues of equity to consider since, in the case of Fiji, the rural poor would be the losers if trade preferences were to be removed. Moreover, the degree of benefit in alternative strategies such as infrastructure development will be contingent on the economy's flexibility, which in turn depends upon the country's regulatory regime and education performance.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00711.x
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
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    Books Received (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00713.x
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Can Japan Make a Comeback? (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Since the beginning of the 1990s Japan has experienced economic stagnation. The economy had been allowed to overheat in the 1980s and a bubble had been built up. When this burst, there was massive asset-deflation, which led to a banking crisis. The bad debts were not faced up to effectively. Japanese banks could not achieve high enough margins to recapitalise themselves, and the government was for a long time reluctant to intervene effectively. The shock made economic agents more pessimistic, which led to an imbalance between savings and investment-demand. Excess savings were placed abroad and used to finance a domestic fiscal deficit, but this was not enough to close the gap and sustain growth. To be able to run a large current account surplus the yen needed to depreciate, but this was not achieved due to expectations about a future appreciation. The strategy to get out of the liquidity trap would include credible inflation targeting and yen depreciation. Monetary policy should have an inflation target well above zero per cent. Such macroeconomic measures need to be complemented by structural reforms such as deregulation of financial services, competition policy and reallocation of public investments. The Japanese development model with close connections between firms and banks needs to be reformed. Japan should be able to achieve stable growth again, but since the catch-up phase is over one would not expect growth in Japan to be higher than in other developed countries, even if Japan undertakes the needed reforms.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00693.x
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  • 8
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    The Balassa-Samuelson Hypothesis in Estonia: Oil Shale, Tradable Goods, Regulated Prices and Other Culprits (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper analyses the Balassa-Samuelson (B-S) framework for the case of Estonia using a unique dataset that consists of a 15-sectoral breakdown of GDP and a five-digit level CPI disaggregation with 260 items over the period from 1993 to 2002. Unlike the existing literature, the paper focuses on the following four aspects of the phenomenon: (a) data disaggregation, (b) definition of goods tradability, (c) price regulatedness in services and (d) possible heterogeneity across transition countries. It turns out that the first three aspects do matter and, in addition to this, Estonia appears to bear very specific characteristics when compared with other transition countries. A battery of cointegration techniques (DOLS, ARDL, Johansen) shows that productivity is strongly related to relative prices only when regulated prices are controlled for appropriately in the consumer price index and when country-specific classification is applied to the open and closed sectors. The B-S effect contributed to CPI by 1 to 1.5 per cent at the outset of the period and by 0.4 to 0.6 per cent in 2002, whereas its potential long-run impact is estimated to be 1 to 1.2 per cent. Although real appreciation due to the B-S effect seems higher in the early 1990s, it explains that better real appreciation occurred in recent years.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00640.x
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    AIDS Policy and Pharmaceutical Patents: Brazil's Strategy to Safeguard Public Health (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Developing nations are challenged to strike a balance between their patent obligations as members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) and their drug pricing strategies. The Brazilian approach to pharmaceutical price negotiations has been strikingly effective. Describing the context of the Brazilian pharmaceutical sector, their public health system and the Brazilian AIDS policy, this paper examines the Brazilian strategy vis-à-vis the international pharmaceutical manufacturers to explore why their tactics were successful and the potential for wider application by other developing countries.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00668.x
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
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    Book Reviews (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Books reviewed:CARL DAVIDSON and STEVEN J.MATUSZ, International Trade and Labour Markets: Theory, Evidence, and Policy Implications.CHRISTINA L. DAVIS, Food Fights Over Free Trade: How International Institutions Promote Agricultural Trade Liberalization.JAN JOOST TEUNISSEN and MARK TEUNISSEN (eds), Financial Stability and Growth in Emerging Economies: The Role of the Financial Sector.MARC FLANDREAU and FRÉDÉRIC ZUMER, The Making of Global Finance 1880–1913.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00681.x
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The Determinants of EU Processing Trade (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper assesses the determinants of European outward and inward processing trade. Thereby, it distinguishes between size, relative factor endowment, (other) cost factors and infrastructure variables. Using a large panel of bilateral processing trade flows of the EU12 countries at the aggregate level over the period 1988–1999, we find that infrastructure variables, relative factor endowments and other cost variables are important determinants for the EU's outward processing trade. Costs also play a key role for the EU's inward processing trade.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00679.x
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The Japanese Export Insurance Arrangements: Promotion or Subsidisation? (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Japan has promoted its exports by reducing the risks accompanying overseas sales through short-term facilities for exporters. Short-term export insurance schemes operated in line with rules on minimum premia are not prohibited according to current international trade rules. The insured amount of underwriting has however grown steadily and the balance of accounts of export insurance has deteriorated over a sustained, ‘long-term’ period. The Japanese government has supported the system by reinforcing its financial base. In the 1980s and 1990s, the amount of claims was almost three times higher than premium incomes. Although the Japanese government may have subsidised exporters through the export insurance system, such subsidisation is notionally at least in accordance with the current regulations of the global trading system. The multilateral trading system has included export insurances at premium rates inadequate for covering the long-term operating costs and losses of the programmes in the list of export subsidies. The current Members of the WTO are obliged to abide by the Agreement on Subsidies and Countervailing Measures which comprises the illustrative list of export subsidies. However, the Agreement also stipulates that export insurances consistent with the interest rate provisions of the OECD Arrangement should not be considered as an export subsidy. Therefore, provision of export insurances not prohibited by the WTO regulations may be considered by developing countries undergoing trade deficits as a means of export promotion. Japan has done similarly for the past half century.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00680.x
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Environmental Regulations in Gravity Equations: Evidence from Europe (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: One implication of the pollution haven hypothesis is that countries export more by applying more lenient environmental regulations. Most studies that apply gravity-type equations do not find robust support for environmental regulations to affect bilateral exports. In this paper, we show that one can obtain robust negative effects of stringency, as long as gravity equations are well specified with respect to theory. Our results, based on the European data, are both very consistent with US studies on environmental regulations and another line of very recent studies that infer non-biased price or substitution elasticities from trade equations. We show that more stringent environmental regulations, when depicting a pure cost effect, are reducing exports. The coefficient is even larger in the case where exporting countries are Central and Eastern European countries, comparing to the EU15. Further, we show that there is no significant difference in the impact of regulations on trade in case of dirty and clean sectors. Finally, when using GMM estimation, our environmental stringency coefficient gets significantly reinforced.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00748.x
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
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    Exporting Europe's Trade Policy (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: There are three well-known observations about the current regional trade policy of Europe. The first one is the central role played by the European Union in the worldwide spreading of regional agreements. The second is the new policy of signing bilateral deep regional trade agreements. The third is the growing demand for harmonisation of international and domestic trade regulations. We show that the combination of these three trends results in Europe increasingly weighing on the policy decisions of its trade partners, in particular with regard to their trade policies. The European hegemonic influence – which can be viewed as Europe ‘exporting’ its policy models – is extending to all partners in preferential trade agreements, not only the accession candidates. It has two main broad manifestations: a prescriptive approach to push bilateral partners into regional agreements among themselves; and a tendency to diffuse European rules in its bilateral agreements with its partners. We review the various provisions of the agreements through which this influence operates. Although this policy can be viewed as desirable in some instances, it also generates actual and potential future costs for developing countries, as well as posing non-trivial dangers to the process of multilateral liberalisation and to the building of appropriate policies for the partner countries.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00747.x
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  • 15
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    Index to Volume 28 (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.753_1.x
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  • 16
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    Three Decades of Italian Comparative Advantages (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper explores the structure of Italian revealed comparative advantages (RCA), focusing on the export structure itself, on its changes over time and on its degree of persistence. The analysis is developed with the use of visual statistical tools and non-parametric statistical techniques that allow to estimate the empirical distribution of the Balassa (1965) index, and to track its dynamics during three decades, from the 1970s to the present. The main results of the analysis are that the structure of Italian RCA is highly persistent, but is changing; the structure is very different when it is examined at a macro-regional level; the distribution is not so similar to the one of the new industrialised countries, when it is examined at a high level of sectoral disaggregation. Finally, the persistence in the pattern of RCA appears to be positively related to the presence of industrial districts in export data disaggregated at the provincial level.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00752.x
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  • 17
    Electronic Resource
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    Who Can Adjust to the Euro? (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This study estimates potential exchange rate variation among 26 European countries during 1992–1998, as a proxy for the potential magnitude of adjustment they face to euro-block membership, using the instrumental variable (IV) method, applying least squares cross-section regression analysis based on optimal currency area theory. A currency union among Belgium, Denmark, France, Germany, Ireland, Malta, the Netherlands and Slovenia is found to entail a relatively light burden of adjustment for its members. The current membership of other countries in the euro-block is potentially very demanding on their societies in the long term. This study also compares currency boards and independent central banks as alternative monetary frameworks for disinflation policies. Based on a pooled time-series, cross-section dataset of the same countries and years currency boards are found to be more effective in reducing inflation in all countries except Belgium. Balancing EMU's credibility gains against its adjustment costs, Finland, Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain seem like unstable members of the euro-block. For all new EU member states except the Czech Republic, Malta, Slovenia and Slovakia the advice is to stay out of the euro-block until their economies are liberalised and flexible enough to withstand major adjustments, and their societal interest groups supportive enough of these adjustments.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00751.x
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  • 18
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Asset Policies During an Oil Windfall: Some Simple Analytics (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Many developing countries are currently experiencing oil windfalls, whether due to discoveries or to price effects. Such windfalls pose a series of policy dilemmas. The literature has focused on one of these: the choice between using windfall savings for public capital formation and investment in foreign assets. There are good theoretical reasons for investing a substantial part of the windfall initially abroad: the return to investment would fall below the world interest rate if the windfall were to be used entirely for domestic investment. Investing abroad offers an escape from diminishing returns: foreign assets can be repatriated gradually and used for domestic investment. However, in practice the efficient balance between domestic and foreign assets is politically difficult to sustain. Also, even if politically feasible this strategy is inefficient due to the failure to expand the private capital stock (‘equipment’). The policy problem is that the government cannot undertake such investment itself and trying to induce private agents to undertake equipment investment by transferring part of the windfall to them is likely to fail as a result of information problems. We argue that domestic debt repayment solves this dilemma. It has the added advantage of making foreign asset accumulation difficult to reverse.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00741.x
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  • 19
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    Free Trade Areas in East Asia: Discriminatory or Non-discriminatory? (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The debates on regional trade arrangements in East Asia focus on whether the RTAs can be net trade creating or diverting, and whether they impede multilateral trade liberalisation or not. This paper attempts to answer these questions by quantitatively estimating the economic impact of possible East Asian free trade areas based on a bilateral gravity model, and evaluating the main characteristics of the proposed FTAs. We find that the trade creation effect expected from the proposed East Asian FTAs such as a China-Japan-Korea or an ASEAN plus three (China, Japan, Korea) FTA will be significant enough to overwhelm the trade diversion effect. We also judge that East Asian FTAs will likely be a building block for a global free trade.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00673.x
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  • 20
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    Financial Liberalisations in Latin America in the 1990s: A Reassessment (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper studies the experience of Latin America (LATAM) with financial liberalisation in the 1990s. The rush towards financial liberalisations in the early 1990s was associated with expectations that external financing would alleviate the scarcity of saving in LATAM, thereby increasing investment and growth. Yet, the data and several case studies suggest that the gains from external financing are overrated. The bottleneck inhibiting economic growth is less the scarcity of saving, and more the scarcity of good governance. A possible interpretation for these findings is that in countries where private savings and investments were taxed in an arbitrary and unpredictable way, the credibility of a new regime could not be assumed or imposed. Instead, credibility must be acquired as an outcome of a learning process. Consequently, increasing the saving and investment rates tends to be a time-consuming process. This also suggests that greater political instability and polarisation would induce consumers to be more cautious in increasing their saving and investment rates following a reform. Hence, reaching a sustained take-off in Latin America is a harder task to accomplish than in Asia.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00716.x
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  • 21
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    Towards a New Trade Policy Between the USA and Middle-East Countries:Estimating Trade Resistance and Export Potential (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: At the time of the conclusion of free trade areas (FTAs) between the USA and Middle-East and North African (MENA) countries, there is a lack of literature concerning the measurement of the current US export position with regards to these countries, and the US export potential in this area. From recent developments of gravity models, this paper derives an estimable equation which includes various trade resistance variables, notably border effects, multilateral resistance as well as specific bilateral effects. The model is tested in order to scrutinise the impact of these variables on US exports to MENA countries, as well as the US export potential in this area. To that end, a selection of panel data specifications is proposed, mainly Hausman and Taylor models as well as Arellano and Bond dynamic models. Results unambiguously indicate that as compared to the other OECD countries, the USA suffers from a substantial trade integration deficit with MENA countries. This is reflected by the strongly negative values of the US-MENA bilateral fixed effects, as well as the high bilateral border effects. In addition, the estimated actual/potential US export ratio to these countries is only 0.76. Therefore, implementing an FTA between the USA and MENA countries may allow the former to progressively improve its export position in this area. This would also help MENA countries diversify their supplying sources.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00689.x
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  • 22
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    Currency and Financial Crises in Turkey 2000 –2001: Bad Fundamentals or Bad Luck? (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper attempts to explore the underlying causes of twin crises experienced by Turkey in November 2000 and February 2001. We study an extensive set of leading indicators of crises that are drawn from the existing literature. Our results identify three sets of vulnerabilities in the Turkish economy in triggering the financial crisis and bringing about the collapse of the Turkish lira. These are: first, the weak external position caused by excessive debt burden combined with the loss of competitiveness; second, the weak fiscal position resulting from the record levels of interest payments on domestic borrowing; and most importantly, third, weaknesses in the financial and banking sector. Given these observations, we argue that the success of financial sector reform is instrumental not only for putting the economy on a sustainable recovery path but also for reducing the likelihood of similar crises in the future. The general lesson to be drawn from this experience is that a sound financial system is a pre-condition for the successful operation of a fixed exchange rate regime.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2005.00691.x
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  • 23
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    The New Southern African Customs Union Agreement (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: From its origins in 1910 the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) has been characterised by striking asymmetries in policies, levels of development and administrative capacity. Following the demise of apartheid in 1994, the five member countries (Botswana, Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa and Swaziland) began negotiations to reform the SACU. Eight years later, a new Agreement was signed in October 2002. In this paper, we outline the main characteristics of the 2002 Agreement and assess whether it addresses the criticisms of the preceding arrangement. Most importantly, the 2002 Agreement introduces shared decision-making and provides for a sustainable revenue-sharing arrangement. But varying levels of trade policy capacity along with policy divergences between the members present new challenges. Moreover, the exclusion of Services, Intellectual Property Rights and Singapore issues gives the 2002 Agreement a somewhat jaded appearance. Nevertheless, the reconstituted SACU could form the core of a larger regional customs union that would facilitate a realignment of the existing regional organisations. This will depend on the ongoing trade negotiations with both the EU and the United States. These negotiations will also put pressure on SACU to address excluded issues and reduce cross-border transaction costs in order to realise the benefits from economic cooperation.
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    An Assessment of Environmentally- related Non-tariff Measures (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: International trade can affect the environment in different ways. This may justify the introduction of border measures by the importing countries. In addition to various dispositions in the GATT, GATS, TRIPs agreements, as well as in the Agreement on Agriculture, this issue is regulated by the agreements on Technical Barriers to Trade (TBT) and on the application of Sanitary and Phyto-sanitary standards (SPS). Despite these rules, abuse of environmental arguments for protectionist reasons remains an open issue. In order to disentangle protectionism from dispositions justified on the grounds of true environmental concerns, we systematically review notifications of SPS and TBTs by importing countries at the tariff line level. Trade is considered as being potentially affected when an environmental SPS/TBT is notified on grounds of environmental concerns. Affected trade is defined as imports by countries notifying such barriers. Protectionist use of environmental barriers is likely when only a limited number of countries impose an environmental obstacle on the imports of a given product. Considering data for 2001, we find that 88 per cent of the value of world trade is in products potentially affected by such measures, while 39 per cent of the value of world imports is potentially subject to a protectionist use of such measures. Agriculture, the automobile industry, the pharmaceutical industry and many other sectors are concerned.
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    Book Reviews (2005)
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Books reviewed:MAARTEN C. W. JANSSEN (ed.), Auctioning Public Assets: Analysis and Alternatives.RONALD I. MCKINNON, Exchange Rates under the East Asian Dollar Standard.SANJEEV GUPTA, BENEDICT CLEMENTS and GABRIELA INCHAUSTE (eds.), Helping Countries Develop: The Role of Fiscal Policy.
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    The Chiang Mai Initiative and Beyond (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
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    Notes: More than three years have passed since the inception of the Chiang Mai Initiative (CMI) in May 2000. Although much progress has been made, the present structure of the CMI is still incomplete. The purpose of this paper is to provide a view on the current process and future prospects for regional financial and monetary cooperation in East Asia. Looking forward, the most realistic scenario is that the countries participating in the CMI will muddle through, continuously discussing modalities of policy dialogue, the types of the surveillance system the CMI needs, and also augmentation of swap amounts without making any substantial progress.
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    AGOA and Apparel: Who Captures the Tariff Rent in the Presence of Preferential Market Access? (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The United States grants preferential (tariff- and quota-free) market access to a list of products from eligible countries in sub-Saharan Africa through the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA). We analyse the increase in prices received by apparel exporters who benefited from AGOA preferences. In the presence of competitive markets, export prices should increase as much as the tariff which was previously collected by the US government. We refer to this price increase as the ‘tariff preference rent’ since exporters receive this income as the rent for their preferential status. The results show that exporters receive only one-third of this rent and smaller exporters receive less than larger and established ones. We then provide evidence that suggests this may be due to the degree of market power enjoyed by US importers when facing African exporters.
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    What's the Point of Reciprocal Trade Negotiations? Exports, Imports, and Gains from Trade (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper explains why trade-policy makers may prefer reciprocal trade negotiations (RTN) to unilateral tariff reductions (UTR) for economic reasons. It answers puzzles like ‘Why WTO reciprocity?’ and strengthens the unnecessarily weak case made for the WTO by those who downplay or dismiss benefits from foreign tariff reductions (FTR).RTN is superior to UTR because it provides economic benefits that UTR cannot – namely, FTR benefits which are clearer than potentially important UTR benefits: Whereas each policy offers efficiency gains, any terms-of-trade effect of UTR generally detracts from these gains, while any terms-of-trade effect of FTR is typically beneficial (especially for a small price-taking country) with this benefit augmenting FTR's efficiency gains. Moreover, benefits from reductions in foreign barriers may come from several sources; they are not solely the result of terms-of-trade improvement – or economies of scale (the two benefits already noted in the literature, though often dismissed). For example, with foreign NTB elimination, possible home benefits are shown even with rising costs and terms-of-trade deterioration. RTN is also superior to UTR because, by eliminating protection in either NTB or tariff form, RTN provides an escape from not only a terms-of-trade prisoners’ dilemma, but many other previously unrecognised prisoners’ dilemmas, including one in international rent transfers, and several others with no economies-of-scale or terms-of-trade motivation.Of course, if superior RTN is not an option, UTR may well be desirable. If reciprocity is an option, but only in a narrower CU or FTA form, such reciprocity may still be superior to UTR, or it may be inferior; theory cannot unambiguously rank these.
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    Eco-labelling and the Trade-Environment Debate (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 28 (2005), S. 0 
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: In this paper we consider the effectiveness of eco-labels as a substitute for alternative, but trade-restrictive, environmental policies. Specifically, while there are concerns that eco-labelling requirements increase the cost of international trade, due to their potential for misuse as technical trade barriers, little attention has been given to the environmental benefits of eco-labelling. We show that incentive problems inherent in eco-labelling policies make it a very weak tool of environmental policy. Despite this, we argue that eco-labelling schemes may remain popular, owing to the lack of alternative WTO compliant environmental policies. We also use this framework to consider the economic and political conflicts facing the EU with regard to its policies on genetically modified organisms.
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    The EU Anti-dumping Policy Towards Russia and China: Product Quality and the Choice of an Analogue Country (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper uses the theory of international trade in vertically differentiated products in order to assess whether the EU has calculated disproportionately high dumping margins in its anti-dumping policy towards the two non-market economies (NMEs) Russia and China since 1992. Specifically, the investigation concerns cases in which the level of economic development in and the quality of the products from the chosen analogue country are higher than in the two NMEs. The conclusion drawn here is that, even when the EU chooses analogue countries at a higher level of economic development than Russia and China, the differences in product quality and in the levels of economic development between the dumpers and the analogue countries provide no systematic explanation of the size of dumping margins.
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    The Aftermath of a Currency Collapse: How Different are Emerging Markets? (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: In currency crises, unlike in orderly devaluations, the financial markets dominate events. Previous research has shown that the output effects of a crisis tend to be worse in emerging markets, and the current account adjustment greater. This paper examines the evolution of a wider range of macroeconomic variables from two years before a currency collapse to two years afterwards. On the basis of twelve recent episodes, it is shown that currency collapses (crises followed by depreciations) have had a much greater adverse impact in emerging markets (defined as relatively high-income developing countries exposed to international capital markets) than in developed countries. There is greater nominal and real depreciation, a substantial inflation shock, a much bigger output effect, and far greater import compression, whilst inflows of portfolio capital virtually cease. These differences are statistically significant. Nevertheless there is wide variation n the post-collapse experience of the six emerging markets studied (Mexico, Thailand, Korea, Indonesia, Russia and Brazil). Although all six experienced a sudden stop or even a reversal of capital flows and very sharp nominal depreciations, inflation remained low in Thailand, Korea and Brazil, and output losses were comparatively small in Russia and Brazil. Previous studies of individual crises suggest that important factors are the state of the banking system and its vulnerability to currency movements, the ability of the authorities to establish a credible macroeconomic policy after the collapse, and whether the crisis triggers significant political instability.
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    Just How Undervalued is the Chinese Renminbi? (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Given that the value of China's currency has been a hot topic recently, this paper explores the equilibrium levels of China's real and nominal exchange rates. Employing a Johansen cointegration framework, we focus on the behavioural equilibrium exchange rate (BEER) and permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER) models. Our results suggest that, while the renminbi is somewhat undervalued against the dollar, the misalignment is not nearly as exaggerated as many popular claims.
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    The Rise of Fund Managers in Foreign Exchange:Will Fundamentals Ultimately Dominate? (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper analyses the behaviour and motivation of fund managers in foreign exchange markets reflected in questionnaire evidence. We find that fund managers and FX dealers differ significantly. Fund managers rely more on fundamentals, basically due to their longer forecasting horizons, and reject non-fundamental influences on exchange rates more than FX dealers. However, neither can fund managers be considered as pure fundamentalists. Non-fundamentalist positions markedly influence short-term decision-making. They inspire ambivalent views about market imperfections and these views seem to become stronger over time. This latter change counterbalances the strengthening fundamental influences resulting from the rise of fund managers.
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    Exports, Foreign Direct Investment and Employment: The Case of China (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
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    Notes: This paper analyses the growth of production and employment in China during the period 1978 to the early 1990s. It argues that the Chinese experience with export-led growth provides an excellent case study of the phenomenon of a vent for surplus resources provided by exports, identified by Adam Smith in the Wealth of Nations and elaborated by Hla Myint. The paper extends the Smith-Myint model of ‘vent-for-surplus’ productive capacity to ‘vent-for-surplus’ resources by allowing for foreign investment flows. The ‘vent-for-surplus’ effect of exports on employment and growth is examined in a dynamic labour demand framework for a panel of township and village enterprises (TVEs) in China.
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    The UK and the Euro: Debating the British Decision (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This article seeks to inform and enliven the debate on whether or not Britain should join the euro. The central focus of the article involves interviews with two leading economists, Professor Willem Buiter (Chief Economist and Special Counsellor to the President, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development) who strongly supports the case for joining, and Professor Patrick Minford (Professor of Applied Economics, Cardiff Business School) who takes the opposite stance. The article begins with an introduction which places the interviews in context and concludes with a final section summarising the central points of commonality and departure arising in the interviews with Professors Buiter and Minford.
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    ASEAN-China Free Trade Area: A Bane or Boon for ASEAN Countries? (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: At the ASEAN Summit in November 2000, the leaders of ASEAN and China agreed to enhance economic cooperation and integration with the goal of establishing an ASEAN-China Free Trade Area (FTA). This decision was a natural response to a number of important global and regional developments of the past decade. Since the signing of the framework agreement, policymakers from China and ASEAN member states have already started their negotiations on the specific terms and features for this proposed FTA. While such an FTA would hold the potential of yielding enormous economic benefits, it also causes some sense of apprehension and uncertainty in some quarters, due to the common perception that China is already a strong competitor in trade and attracting foreign investment. To examine the economic basis for such concern, this paper analyses the economic implications of this proposed free trade area from the ASEAN economies’ perspective. Specifically, it examines how competitive ASEAN countries are vis-à-vis China, evaluate the scope for strengthening China-ASEAN trade and the impediments facing Chinese and ASEAN investors in each other's markets, and recommends policy measures to maximise the benefits and minimise the hardships resulting from an ASEAN-China FTA.
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    Trick or Treat? Development Opportunities and Challenges in the WTO Negotiations on Industrial Tariffs (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Notes: Negotiations on industrial tariffs in the current WTO work programme have turned out to be surprisingly difficult. On the one hand, developing countries, particularly in Africa, are concerned about the potential negative effect on their industrial development of developed country efforts to push them into deep cuts in applied tariffs: after the disillusion of the Uruguay Round, promises of welfare gains seem unconvincing. On the other hand, a number of the more complex formula proposals for tariff-cutting make it difficult for participants to evaluate what they have to do compared with what they hope to receive. The developing countries may achieve greater exports and welfare gains from the more ambitious proposals, but computations show that these also imply greater imports, lower tariff revenues, some labour market adjustments and reduced output in some politically sensitive sectors. Some way of assisting the developing countries in coping with these adjustments is required to take advantage of the opportunities presented by the negotiations.
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    Computational Analysis of the US FTAs with Central America, Australia and Morocco (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Notes: We use the Michigan Model of World Production and Trade to assess the economic effects of the US bilateral FTAs negotiated with Central America, Australia and Morocco. The model covers 18 economic sectors in each of 22 countries/regions and is based on version 5.4 of the GTAP database for 1997 together with specially constructed estimates of services barriers and other data on sectoral employment and numbers of firms. The distinguishing feature of the model is that it incorporates imperfect competition in the manufacturing and services sectors, including monopolistic competition, increasing returns and product variety. The modelling focus is on the effects of the bilateral removal of tariffs on agriculture and manufactures and services barriers. Rules of origin and other restrictive measures and the non-trade aspects of the FTAs are not taken into account due to data constraints. The computational results indicate that the benefits of bilateral FTAs for the United States and partner countries are rather small in both absolute and relative terms, and that far greater benefits could be realised if the United States and its FTA partners adopted unilateral free trade and especially if multilateral free trade was adopted by all countries/regions in the global trading system.
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    Books Received (2005)
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    Short-term Consequences of Trade Reform for Industry Employment and Wages: Survey of Evidence from Colombia (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
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    Notes: Recent research has focused on the short- to medium-term implications of trade reforms for the labour market outcomes and poverty in poor economies. This article summarises the evidence on the short-term consequences of the Colombian trade reform initiated in 1985 for industry employment and industry wages. Although the reform reduced manufacturing tariffs on average by 40 percentage points from 1984 to 1994, tariff declines were not significantly associated with labour reallocation across sectors. The reform, however, was associated with bigger declines in relative industry wages in sectors that experienced bigger tariff cuts. This evidence is in line with the predictions of short- to medium-run models of trade in which labour is not mobile across sectors. It is also consistent with the predictions of models where imperfectly competitive industries share rents with workers and trade reduces the firms’ profit margins and thus workers’ rents.
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    Who Supports Free Trade in Latin America? (2005)
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    Notes: This paper examines individual trade policy preferences across 17 countries in Latin America. The focus is on whether skilled or unskilled workers are more likely to support liberalised trade and on whether country characteristics, such as factor endowments, alter the preferences of skilled and unskilled workers. Based on the standard Heckscher-Ohlin model and the Stolper-Samuelson theorem, wage inequality in developing countries will decrease under free trade and unskilled workers will benefit. We find that on average skilled workers are more likely than unskilled workers to support free trade in Latin American countries. Separate country regressions reveal that this pattern is only statistically significant in 8 out of 17 Latin American countries. However, there are no countries in our sample in which unskilled workers are statistically more likely to support free trade than skilled workers, not even in the lowest skill-endowed country in the sample. We also find that people from Latin American countries with higher GDP, faster growth, more cropland and a longer period of time since reform were more likely on average to support free trade.
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    One Market, One Money: Evidence from Canada–United States Economic Integration (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: In this paper, we focus on the evolution of the optimum currency area (OCA) properties between Canada and the United States. To this end, we specifically investigate the relationship between the intra-industry trade dynamics of Canadian provinces with the United States and the increasing level of integration between the two countries from 1980 to 1998. Our findings lead us to support the view that integration (real and monetary) improves the conditions under which a monetary union can yield net gains in the long run for the integrating countries. We also find that exchange rate developments exert asymmetric effects on the Canadian provinces.
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    Why So Small? Explaining the Size of Firms in Latin America (2005)
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    Notes: On average, Latin American firms are small with respect to world patterns, both in terms of the quantity of assets they control and the amount of employment they generate. We examine data on firm size from developed and developing countries around the world to assess the influence of demand, supply and institutional factors on the size of the largest firms in each country. We find that, besides the size of the economy and the level of income per capita, the key determinants of the size of firms are trade openness, stock market capitalisation and physical infrastructure. Our simulations suggest that if the gaps with respect to the best Latin American performer were closed in each of these three areas, firm size in the countries of the region would – on average – reach world patterns.
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    Anti-competitive Practices and Liberalising Markets in Latin America and the Caribbean (2005)
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    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The last ten years have seen many Latin American and Caribbean nations enact or reform competition laws, and numerous other jurisdictions are considering following suit. The evidential base to guide such policymaking is, however, limited. In this paper we have assembled two databases, one concerning allegations of anti-competitive acts in newspaper articles and another concerning the relationship between competition-related factors and the effects of reforms to liberalise markets, that may go some way to remedying this deficiency. In so doing, we have noticed a number of matters that producers and consumers of research in this area should probably bear in mind.
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    De Tocqueville's ‘Dangerous Moment’: The Importance of Getting Reforms Right (2005)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Notes: Economic reform, on an ongoing basis, is vital if economies are to achieve, and maintain, rapid and sustained economic growth. Yet governments face challenges when introducing economic reforms. Policymakers must judge what reforms are needed; when to introduce them; and how rapidly to pursue their reform programme. Failed reforms can discredit the reform process as a whole, and so make it more difficult, and more costly, to retry in the future. The reform process in emerging market economies provides many lessons that are widely applicable. Perseverance is critical: reforms must be followed through if they are to be successful. Reforms also need to be wide-ranging, encompassing not just monetary, fiscal and trade policy but reform of the financial sector and of public institutions. Reforms in many countries need to include the protection of property and individual rights; improved tax administration and greater efficiency of public spending; and commercial codes. Reforms can be most easily implemented at times of global expansion. Fiscal consolidation, for example, is more easily accomplished in a more favourable environment partly because it helps deliver future growth and partly because it gives governments scope for counter-cyclical policy during future downturns.
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    The Global Distribution of Trademarks: Some Stylised Facts (2005)
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    Notes: This paper provides the first empirical analysis of the global distribution of trademarks. It is based on a new dataset compiled by the authors from the statistical information published by the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO). The questions analysed include the distribution of trademarks among countries of different income levels, the share of trademark registrations accounted for by foreign residents and its variation across different income groups, the extent to which poor countries participate in the international trademark system, and the distribution of registrations across different sectors of the economy. The evidence presented in this paper is relevant for assessing possible welfare implications of changes in intellectual property protection and evaluating the role of reputational assets in determining international trading patterns.
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    Trade Liberalisation and Economic Performance: Theory and Evidence for Developing Countries (2005)
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    Notes: The last five decades have witnessed a profound evolution of economic policy in developing countries, particularly in the case of trade strategies. Both internal, as well as external, factors have prompted the need for more outward-oriented (or liberalised) trade policy regimes. The creation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in 1947 and the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in 1995 have been important driving forces for free trade. Since then, the major quantitative barriers to trade, i.e. tariffs and non-tariff barriers (quotas, licences and technical specifications, among other restrictions), have substantially been reduced or dismantled. Also, the progress towards more liberalised trade regimes, mainly in developing countries, has been manifested in the trade and development literature. Major studies suggest that the performance of more outward-oriented economies is superior to that of those countries pursuing more inward-looking trade practices (Greenaway and Nam, 1988; Dollar, 1992; Sachs and Warner, 1995; and Rodríguez and Rodrik, 2000). Recent developments in the international trade literature focus on the potential dynamic effects of trade liberalisation, i.e. simplification of tariff structures and elimination of non-tariff barriers, in reducing the incentives to rent seeking and in accelerating the flow of technical knowledge from the world market. Moreover, there have been important advances regarding the study of trade liberalisation and its impact on exports, imports and the balance of payments, largely neglected in the literature, often driven by supply-side considerations.
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    Who Bears the Cost of Agricultural Support in OECD Countries? (2005)
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    Notes: This paper provides quantitative estimates of the impact of removing agricultural support in both OECD and developing countries in partial and general equilibrium frameworks. The results show that agricultural support in OECD countries is highly distortionary, and tariffs have a larger distortionary impact than subsidies. Removal of agricultural support would likely raise the international prices of food, resulting in an increase in the cost of food for many net-food importing countries, although the size of the increase is generally small. The results also show that most of the benefits from removing agricultural support accrue to the countries that liberalise.
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    Book Reviews (2005)
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    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Books reviewed:PETER NOLAN, China at the Crossroads.HUBERT STRAUSS, Demand and Supply of Aggregate Exports of Goods and Services: Multivariate Cointegration Analyses for the United States, Canada, and Germany.HORST SIEBERT (ed.), Macroeconomic Policies in the World Eco-nomy.JAMES R. MARKUSEN, Multinational Firms and the Theory of Inter-national Trade.
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    Index to Volume 28 (2005)
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    The Border Effect in Spain (2005)
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    Notes: This paper analyses the border effect in Spain using a unique dataset on intranational trade flows over the period 1995–98. The results indicate that, after controlling for market size and distance, Spanish regions trade around 22 times more with the rest of Spain than they do with OECD countries. Moreover, the size of the Spanish bias is lower in the case of the Spanish regions’ exports than in the case of imports, although the difference is not statistically significant in most cases. Finally, the border effect is not uniform across Spanish regions.
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    The Latest Enlargement of the EU and ‘Buy National’ Rules (2005)
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    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper presents a variety of indicators which reflect the extent of protection of individual manufacturing industries in ten countries of Central and Eastern Europe by the ‘Buy National’ rules in public procurement. Eight countries joined the EU in 2004 and the two remaining countries will become full members in 2007. Combining these data with information on the current international competitiveness of each individual industry, the paper identifies those industries that are likely to be particularly sensitive to the abolition of ‘Buy National’ rules due to their recent accession to the European Union. Two series of indicators are proposed to measure the impact of ‘Buy National’ policies. The first series outlines the behaviour of the public sector vis-à-vis domestic production and imports. The second series of indicators sketches the industrial structure of the sectors which, following the above analysis, seem to be protected by preferential public procurement. The interaction of both series of indicators can provide information about the extent of protection in terms of public procurement on a sectoral level and about its impact on domestic production.
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    Domestic Regulation and the WTO: The Case of Water Services in Developing Countries (2005)
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    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Trade liberalisation of environmental services, and water services in particular, under the current WTO General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS), has been widely advocated as a means of increasing private sector participation in the water sector in developing countries. Recognising that effective regulation is needed to ensure that the potential gains from private sector involvement are fully realised, the paper considers the relationship between national regulatory autonomy and GATS liberalisation in water services. The empirical evidence on the impact of private sector involvement in the provision of water services in developing countries is reviewed, and a number of reasons why water privatisation has been problematic in lower-income countries are identified, including transaction costs and regulatory weaknesses. The study concludes that developing countries with limited regulatory resources should adopt a cautious approach to services liberalisation, by sequencing market liberalisation measures to match the development of their regulatory institutional capacity.
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    China's New Regional Trade Agreements (2005)
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    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper discusses the recent regional trade agreements that China has concluded rapidly following accession to the WTO in 2002. Agreements are in place with Hong Kong, Macao, ASEAN, Australia and New Zealand, and are either in negotiation or under discussion with South Africa, Chile, India and the Gulf Cooperation Council. These agreements differ sharply in form and substance, and involve process commitments to ongoing negotiation and cooperation on a wide range of issues. Differences relating to the regional agreements negotiated by the EU and the US are emphasised, as are later potential difficulties these agreements create in moving to an Asian trade bloc centred on them.
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    Books Received (2005)
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    Is the Yen/Dollar Exchange Rate Really Responsible for East Asia's Export and Business Cycles? A Commentary on McKinnon and Schnabl (2003) (2005)
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    Notes: In a paper published in The World Economy, Ronald McKinnon and Gunther Schnabl claim that fluctuations in the nominal yen/dollar exchange rate are the principal causal factor behind the export and business cycles in East Asian countries (McKinnon and Schnabl, 2003). Their econometric work, however, suffers from at least two important difficulties. First, while McKinnon and Schnabl preclude industry shocks as an explanation for the East Asian countries’ macroeconomic fluctuations, cyclical fluctuations in the global electronics industry have a significant impact on their short-run export and output dynamics. Second, although McKinnon and Schnabl assume that the relative industrial competitiveness of Japan and other East Asian countries moves in tandem with fluctuations in the nominal yen/dollar exchange rate, the empirical validity of this assumption is not indisputable. Once these two issues are taken into account properly, it becomes very difficult to make a convincing case for the yen/dollar exchange rate being the main driver of East Asia's macroeconomic instability. A brief critique will also be made of another paper that has appeared recently in The World Economy (Doraisami, 2004), which models Malaysia's pre-crisis export dynamics using the nominal yen/dollar exchange rate as a proxy for the country's export competitiveness.
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    Book Reviews (2005)
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    Notes: Books reviewed:BRINK LINDSEY and DANIEL J. IKENSON, Antidumping Exposed: The Devilish Details of Unfair Trade Law.GEORGE T. ABED and SANJEEV GUPTA (eds.), Governance, Corruption and Economic Performance.AADITYA MATTOO and ROBERT M. STERN, India and the WTO.
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    The Dilemma of Enlargement for the European Union's Regional Policy (2004)
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    Notes: The integration of the former communist countries of central and eastern Europe into the European Union creates a dilemma for the EU's regional policy. The EU's expenditure on regional policy (its ‘active’ regional policy) has been guided by political reactions to deepening or enlarging the EU, not by a rational strategy for regional policy. In contrast, the strong EU instrument of state aid control, developed for competition policy (its ‘reactive’ regional policy) has been relatively successful in avoiding a national race of regional subsidies among the member states. We show that a shift from active regional policy to reactive, competition-oriented, regional policies is the preferred way for the established member states to handle the challenge of enlargement. At the same time, however, this shift is politically difficult for the accession countries to accept, despite the fact that this shift might prove better for them economically. This regional policy dilemma is one of the major obstacles for the full integration of the accession countries into the EU.
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    Britain and EMU: Assessing the Costs in Macroeconomic Variability (2004)
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    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Stochastic simulations are used on the Liverpool Model of the UK to assess the effect of UK euro entry on macroeconomic stability. Instability increases substantially, particularly for inflation and real interest rates. A key factor is the extent of the euro's instability against the dollar; by adopting a regional currency the UK imports this source of shocks, as well as losing its control of interest rates. The results are not highly sensitive to changes in assumptions about the degree of labour market flexibility, the use of fiscal policy, and increased convergence of monetary transmission.
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    Domestic Climate Policies and the WTO (2004)
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    Notes: The Kyoto Protocol gives Annex 1 countries considerable flexibility in the choice of domestic policies to meet their emissions commitments. Possible climate policies include carbon/energy taxes, subsidies, energy efficiency standards, eco-labels, and government procurement policies. In order to meet their targets with minimum adverse effects on their economies, Annex 1 governments with differentiated legal and political systems are highly likely to pursue these policies that may have the potential to bring them into conflict with their WTO obligations. This paper explores the potential interaction between these domestic climate policies and WTO rules. It argues that their potential conflicts can be avoided or at least minimised if WTO rules are carefully scrutinised, and efforts are made early on to ensure that the proposed climate policies comply with them. It suggests an early process of pursuing consultations between WTO members and the Parties to the Climate Change Convention and points to the need of further exploring ways to enhance synergies between the trade and climate regimes.
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    The Economic Effects of Removing Barriers to Trade in Telecommunications (2004)
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    Notes: This paper quantifies the impact on the economies of the world of complete liberalisation of trade in a key services sector, telecommunications, using a global general equilibrium model. Barriers to trade in telecommunications are highest in developing regions and lowest in developed regions. The paper uses new estimates of these barriers for telecommunications. The results indicate that completely liberalising trade in telecommunications would benefit the world as a whole in terms of increased production by 0.1 per cent. Although the distribution of gains among regions is not even, most regions are projected to gain from liberalising trade in telecommunications. In general, the regions with the highest barriers benefit most. The analysis demonstrates that commercial presence of foreign firms via foreign direct investment is an important mode of delivering telecommunications.
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    Liberalising the Movement of Natural Persons: A Lost Decade? (2004)
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    Notes: Liberalisation of international trade in services through the Movement of Natural Persons (Mode 4) remains one of the least negotiated issues of trade policy among the 144 members of the World Trade Organisation. Economists believe that there is a basic convergence of economic interest between the developed and the developing world for liberalising Mode 4. Yet the multilateral trading system has not facilitated greater worker mobility between the labour-surplus and labour-scarce countries. Is there any economic logic as to why cross-border movements of workers have not followed the pattern predicted by international trade theory? Or are there strong socio-political barriers that have come in the way of liberalising Mode 4? These are some of the questions the paper attempts to answer. The paper shows that the economic arguments against the free movement of natural persons are based on the narrow perspective of the welfare of domestic workers while ignoring the benefit it brings to the economy as a whole. Further, non-economic arguments miss the point that the movement of workers under Mode 4 of GATS is temporary in nature, and so unlikely to have any lasting social and cultural spillovers. The paper gives specific illustrations from the recent past where temporary import of workers from labour-surplus countries has enabled both developed and developing countries sustain their economic growth. It concludes by arguing that the environment for renegotiating WTO commitments under this important sector of international trade in services is better than ever before, even though the current world economic slowdown may delay actual negotiations for a while.
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    Arab-related Bilateral and Multilateral Sources of Development Finance: Issues, Trends, and the Way Forward (2004)
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    Notes: This paper analyses the organisational structure as well as the characteristics of development finance provided by Arab donor countries. This is done with a comparative view in relation to western donors and with the aim to develop recommendations as to how Arab development finance can be strengthened and rendered more effective for the new millennium. In the 1960s and 1970s Arab donors established a variety of national and multilateral agencies. These agencies share many characteristics of their western counterparts, but some also exhibit distinctive features. Both in terms of absolute volume as well as generosity measured by aid as a percentage of GDP, Arab countries have been important donors in the past, even though recent years have seen a significant fall in Arab aid. Reversing this downfall in aid, targeting its aid better towards the poor and very poor recipient countries and raising the grant share and the concessionality of loans for these countries together with a reallocation of aid towards the social sectors of human development would render Arab aid-giving more effective in terms of poverty alleviation and more in line with western aid. A greater willingness to participate in the ongoing discussions amongst western donors about the proper objectives and design of development finance would help Arab donorsto achieve the recognition they truly deserve. Closer cooperation with western donors would be a logical consequence of taking such a step. However, this would also need to be matched by a greater willingness on the part of western donors to take their Arab counterparts seriously as partners of development finance.
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    Exchange Rate, Exchange Rate Volatility and Foreign Direct Investment (2004)
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    Notes: In the light of the importance of foreign direct investment (FDI) for the promotion of economic development, this paper examines the impact of the changes in the real exchange rate and its volatility on FDI. Examining Japan's FDI by industries, we found that the depreciation of the currency of the host country attracted FDI, while the high volatility of the exchange rate discouraged FDI. Our results suggest the need to avoid over-valuation of the exchange rate and to maintain stable but flexible exchange rate in order to attract FDI.
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    Regional Diversity and Sources of Economic Growth in China (2004)
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    Notes: Regional diversity in the process of economic growth is the major concern in this paper. We will try to identify its sources for growth and to specify production functions in each province by estimating translog production function. This paper clarifies the following four facts: First, capital accumulation was a major source for growth in the earlier stage of the Chinese economy, especially in the eastern coastal region. Unexpectedly, capital accumulation is losing its ground over the years. Second, the employment structure of the economy in the eastern region has changed significantly and the shares of workers in the secondary and tertiary industries increased until 1992. Since 1992, these figures have not changed significantly despite China's continuous economic high growth. Third, four distinguishable regional growth patterns have contributed to China's economic growth. Finally, production technologies in each province vary both in the direction of factor intensity and in the elasticity of substitution between inputs.
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    Economic and Environmental Benefits of Eliminating Log Export Bans – The Case of Costa Rica (2004)
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    Notes: An increasing number of tropical timber-producing nations have enacted bans on export of logs arguing that this will reduce deforestation, expand downstream wood processing and improve the scale efficiency of domestic processing, create jobs and retain more value-added nationally. The theoretical literature is clear that trade restrictions are generally welfare reducing (except in special cases such as when there is a potential for an optimal export tax). At best, a log export ban is a second-best policy tool for reducing deforestation and addressing the associated environmental externalities. In overall terms, the suggestion that log export bans can achieve the objectives expected of them is dubious. However, very little quantitative evidence exists to demonstrate this claim and the paper attempts to address this gap by looking at the economic and environmental impacts of eliminating a log export ban in Costa Rica. The authors argue that eliminating the export ban is Pareto improving and could generate economic gains as high as $14 million per annum with the possibility of relatively modest environmental benefits.
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    Notes: Books reviewed:THEO BALDERSTON (ed), The World Economy and National Economies in the Interwar SlumpBRIAN R. COPELAND and M. SCOTT TAYLOR, Trade and the Environment: Theory and EvidenceKYLE BAGWELL and ROBERT W. STAIGER, The Economics of the World Trading System PRANAB BARDHAN, International Trade, Growth, and Development: Essays by Pranab BardhanMOONJONG TCHA (ed), Gold and the Modern World Economy
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    Regionalism Within Multilateralism: The WTO Trade Policy Review of Canada (2004)
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    Notes: The World Trade Organisation published a Trade Policy Review of Canada in 2003. In this paper, we discuss the WTO Review and augment the discussion by presenting original data and reviewing the empirical literature. The WTO concludes that Canada's trade regime is open and transparent but maintains barriers in a few important sectors. We subject this claim to empirical scrutiny, comparing Canada's actual imports to a multilateral benchmark based on the gravity equation. We show that Canada imports about what should be expected given the size of its economy and its location. In a second benchmarking exercise, we show that Canada's anti-dumping initiations are in proportion to its imports and that Canada's exports are targeted less by other countries’ anti-dumping investigations than what might be expected based on Canadian export levels. Like many other countries, Canada has pursued trade liberalisation through the World Trade Organisation while simultaneously signing multiple regional trade agreements. Our summary of the recent literature indicates that Canada's regional trade agreements have generated more trade creation than trade diversion. Canada has also spurred imports from the least developed countries by unilaterally eliminating tariffs and quota barriers on 48 of the world's poorest countries in January 2003. We also discuss Canadian progress in opening its agriculture and clothing industries. Overall, we conclude that Canada appears committed to advancing globalisation through multilateral trade liberalisation supplemented by unilateral and bilateral initiatives.
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    Beyond Border Barriers: The Liberalisation of Services Trade in Tunisia and Egypt (2004)
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    Notes: Tunisia and Egypt have both recently undertaken significant steps toward trade reform. They have committed to a partnership agreement with the European Union. Both countries have also joined the WTO and are participating in Doha Round discussions on the liberalisation of non-tariff barriers on both goods and services trade. These developments provide an interesting context within which to investigate not only the changes in welfare associated with reforms affecting the trade in goods, but also the impacts of services liberalisation. Using open-economy computable general equilibrium models for both Tunisia and Egypt, this paper explores the reasons why structural differences in these two economies imply different opportunities and challenges with trade reform and services liberalisation. The gains from eliminating barriers at the border for goods trade are significantly greater for Tunisia than Egypt. Both countries, however, gain substantially from liberalisation of foreign direct investment in services. Furthermore, economic growth is more evenly distributed across sectors than with liberalisation of trade in goods alone. In addition to reporting on the impact of alternative policies on income, output, employment and trade, sector-level effects are also considered.
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    Are There Such Things as International Property Rights? (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper argues that the process of economic globalisation is to remain partial, because of its continued reliance upon the national institutions in charge of the definition and enforcement of private property rights. Emerging economies often face critical enforcement problems, but the experience of the European Single Market also suggests that, in this respect, institutional convergence remains extremely slow. Second, the globalisation process since 1990 has seen a sharp growth in private inter-temporal contracts, exemplified by private financial transactions and by contracting on intellectual property rights; both are much more vulnerable to local institutional failures than trade in tangible goods and sovereign credits, which were the hallmark of previous phases of international liberalisation. Thus the ‘frontier’ of globalisation now makes markets more exposed to the underlying fragmentation of national property institution than before. This suggests that multilateral negotiation, as an instrument for the coordination of State institutions, will remain the backbone of international economic integration.
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    Anti-dumping: What are the Numbers to Discuss at Doha? (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: While tariff barriers have decreased worldwide through various GATT rounds, anti-dumping has surged to play a crucial role as the most important non-tariff barrier. After much debate and opposition, anti-dumping is on the agenda of the Doha round of multilateral trade negotiations and it is one of the most important issues, especially for developing countries as they are the main targets of this policy instrument. With this prospect, it is important to assess the relevance of anti-dumping not only by focusing on traditional users but by analysing the experience of new users, which are now major players in the field. This paper improves upon existing studies by providing a comprehensive assessment on the use of anti-dumping. First, data on the time pattern of worldwide implementations of anti-dumping laws are presented. This time profile shows interesting relationships with legal developments in GATT and WTO dispositions. Second, usual sources of data are complemented with various other sources. This allows the inclusion of recent heavy users like China, Russia, Taiwan and Ukraine, which are ignored in similar studies but important for their trade volumes. This enlarged and updated dataset shows that new users are even more important than previously thought, with implications for the Doha negotiations.
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    Donor Funding of Multilateral Aid Agencies: Determining Factors and Revealed Burden Sharing (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper reports an empirical study of the factors affecting burden sharing among OECD's 22 DAC members in ‘bankrolling’ the multilateral aid agencies. Annual data over 1970–2000, pooled across the donor countries, form the basis for the empirical estimation of each donor's share in the ODA aid receipts for each multilateral agency. Our findings suggest the existence of reverse exploitation, i.e., the financial burden of the agencies is disproportionally carried by the smaller donors. The study also finds that factors such as inherent donor generosity, donor concern for domestic egalitarianism, and the extent to which donors are pro-poor in their bilateral aid policies have an impact on their readiness to support multilateral agencies financially. Size of the donor government and its budgetary balance positively influence burden sharing of contributions to other multilateral agencies. But neither the phase of economic cycle nor the rate of economic growth affects the burden-sharing responsibility of donors. It was also observed that contributions by EU members to the EC do not appear to crowd-out their contributions to other multilateral aid agencies and that right-wing donor governments are generally more parsimonious with regard to financial assistance to multilateral aid agencies. The preferred alternative, particularly among EU member countries, appears to be the EC.
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    Bankruptcy Proceedings for Sovereign State Insolvency (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper examines the main issues involved in translating domestic bankruptcy procedures to the sovereign context. It considers some of the principles by which domestic bankruptcy procedures operate, and the extent to which they apply to international lending. Two recent proposals are considered in more detail, that of Krueger (A New Approach to Sovereign Debt Restructuring) and that of Pettifor (ch. 9/11, Resolving International Debt Crises – the Jubilee Framework for International Insolvency). The paper also considers the question of the ex ante effects of a procedure which makes default less costly, and concludes that despite a negative impact on the ability to borrow, the overall welfare effect need not be negative.
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    Innovative Sources of Development Finance: Global Cooperation in the Twenty-first Century (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper argues that in view of the resource crunch confronting many developing countries and the fall in overseas development aid flows to them, new sources of development finance need to be found. We consider international taxes, fees and levies that could considerably augment aid flows to developing countries and some of which may have coincident beneficial effects. Estimates of the revenue yield from such taxes and levies are also presented. The paper proposes the establishment of a ‘world development organisation’ to coordinate such effort. A formula for voting within the organisation and another for disbursal of such aid are suggested.
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    Multilateral and Bilateral Loans versus Grants: Issues and Evidence (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper examines a wide range of issues relating to the mix between loans and grants as well as the degree of concessionality of loans. A number of empirical tests are carried out based on annual panel data over 1970 to 1999 for 22 donor countries and 72 recipient countries. Based on the tests, we observe that for bilateral donors, past grant-loan mix (and, hence, reflows from past transfers) do not influence the volume of current resource transfers. Our tests also show that the rate of official borrowing by the recipients (and, by deduction, the extent of their past debt burden) is positively influenced by the extent of the concessionality of such loans – irrespective of whether it is in the form of subsidised interest rates or longer grace periods. The paper concludes with a review of the circumstances in which grants, soft loans and non-concessional loans might have their respective comparative advantage, as well as a discussion of the need, so as to overcome the negative incentive problems of soft loans, for a typical concessional loan package to be separated into two constituent parts. This would enable the recipient to be given the grant component and the option to take from the non-concessional loan component as much as desired.
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    China and East Asia after the WTO Accession: Introduction (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
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    The Effect of Entering the WTO on the Oil Industry and the Economy of Taiwan (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The crude oil price of the world increased two-fold during 1999–2002. The price of domestic oil products for the same period increased with a smaller percentage, i.e., 27 per cent. This phenomenon could be attributed to Taiwan's oil market liberalisation after 2000 and its entering the WTO since November 2001. According to this study, the effect of entering the WTO itself suppressed the oil price from increase by 15.455 per cent in 2002. It also reduced the inflation rate by 0.74 per cent and increased the economic growth by 0.39 per cent. Nevertheless, entering the WTO also increases the competition in the oil industry, which is a big challenge to the domestic oil refinery sector and the state-owned Chinese Petroleum Corporation in particular. The price decrease of oil products also increases the demand for oil products and exacerbated air pollution and CO2 emissions. For minimising the negative impact of entering the WTO on the economy, the Taiwan government has devised a series of preparations in the last decade. Those preparations include a step-by-step market liberalisation plan, a strategy taken by the state-owned CPC, a new taxation implementation and the legislative works such as the Petroleum Act. This experience might be worthwhile for the reference of other economies.
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    Does Post-ante Investment Experience Matter? Lessons from FDI in China (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Ample efforts of FDI literature have researched on the motives and determinants of FDI flows based on ex-ante conditions. Little has been studied with regard to the effects of post-ante behaviour in determining future investment decisions. Post-ante experience of FDI decisions with regard to foreign investors’ satisfaction or dissatisfaction and future profit expectations on recurrent decisions are critical. This paper, thus, attempts to investigate FDI in the context of an emerging market environment with emphasis on how environmental and institutional factors and the micro-firm effects of how investors’ post-ante views on profits expectations and investment experience would affect MNCs’ decisions on recurrent investment and firm relocation. Empirical results show that decisions in the short and long run were affected differently by the factors under study. Specifically, the short-run decisions were more affected by profit expectations while the long run by post-ante experience on investment satisfaction/dissatisfaction and environmental and institutional determinants.
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    FDI and Industrial Restructuring in Post-WTO Greater PRD: Implications on Regional Growth in China (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper aims at studying the investment flows in the Greater Pearl River Delta region (Hong Kong-PRD) in China and its impacts on industrial restructuring at the firm-level using a business survey with the Hong Kong-PRD entity acted as a core-periphery economy. The critical effects of gravity distance on transaction costs in the determination of investment flows are examined statistically by a gravity model by incorporating a hypothetical infrastructural construction project. Survey findings show that the evolution of the cross-border operations at the main core has directed the outward FDI flows and the subsequent industrial structural adjustments of the core-periphery economy. This paper has presented a typical illustrative case for further studies of investment flows and its impacts upon industrial adjustments and performance in other regions in China especially after the WTO accession. Its implication on regional economic growth is also discussed.
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    Trade Wars: The Exaggerated Impact of Trade in Economic Debate (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The rules governing trade and capital flows have been at the centre of controversy as globalisation has proceeded. One reason is the belief that trade and capital flows have massive effects on the labour market – either positive, per the claims of international financial institutions and free trade enthusiasts, or negative, per the ubiquitous protestors at WTO, IMF and World Bank meetings demanding global labour standards. Comparing the claims made in this debate with the outcomes of trade agreements, this paper finds that the debate has exaggerated the effects of trade on economies and the labour market. Changes in trade policy have had modest impacts on the labour market. Other aspects of globalisation – immigration, capital flows and technology transfer – have greater impacts, with volatile capital flows creating great risk for the well-being of workers. As for labour standards, global standards do not threaten the comparative advantage of developing countries nor do poor labour standards create a ‘race to the bottom’.
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    Developing Countries as Plaintiffs and Defendants in GATT/WTO Trade Disputes (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Developing countries have been increasing their participation in the formal institutions and proceedings of the multilateral trading system. A prominent example is their more frequent involvement as defendants and plaintiffs in GATT/WTO trade disputes. This paper provides an initial economic appraisal of developing country performance in the GATT/WTO dispute settlement system. We measure the economic resolution of these disputes through trade liberalisation gains, and our results suggest that developing country plaintiffs have had more success under WTO disputes than was the case under the GATT. We also document evidence on potential determinants of this success: the capacity for plaintiffs to make credible retaliatory threats and the guilty determinations by GATT/WTO panels. Finally, there is also some evidence that developing countries have recognised the importance of retaliatory threats and have responded by changing their pattern of dispute initiation under the WTO to better take advantage of the instances in which they have sufficient leverage to threaten retaliation and induce compliance with GATT/WTO obligations.
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    Halving Poverty by Doubling Aid: Is There Reason for Optimism? (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper criticises the World Bank as overly optimistic with respect to its ability to fine-tune development aid and to focus it on countries with ‘good’ policies rather than on countries with ‘poor’ policies in order to raise its effectiveness. It is shown that recipient regions showed very different patterns of aid inflows and economic growth in the past and that aid flows yielded the highest correlation to growth when their magnitudes shrank. It is furthermore argued that categorising countries by quality of domestic policies is not only questionable at a given point of time especially in countries with failing governmental institutions and open borders as in many African countries. It suffers also from incentive problems so that countries receiving more aid can become victims of changes in their domestic policies which are more permissive and etatist to the disadvantage of private agents. The paper instead pleads for a shift to aid policies decoupled from country-specifics and more oriented to fundamental ‘beyond border’ problems of the well-being of the poor. An international endowment fund under supranational law should finance research and implementation of research findings related to common international goods as it was suggested by Sachs concerning aids and tropical disease research.
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    Book Reviews (2004)
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Books reviewed:Sonja Boehmer-Christiansen and Aynsley Kellow, International Environmental Policy: Interests and the Failure of the Kyoto ProcessRolf Jungnickel (ed.) Foreign-Owned Firms: Are They Different?Thomas Cottier and Petros C. Mavroidis (eds.) Intellectual Property: Trade, Competition, and Sustainable DevelopmentJ. Bruinsma (ed.) World Agriculture Towards 2015/2030: An FAO Perspective
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    Trade Policy in Burundi: Reform Without Political Stability (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper evaluates Burundi's progress with trade policy reform, by comparing earlier analyses of Burundi's trade policies undertaken in the 1980s with that of the WTO's recent Trade Policy Review. Since the mid-1980s Burundi has been trying to reform its trade and macroeconomic policies against the background of continuous socio-political tensions and periodic outbreaks of violent tribal conflict. A ‘then and now’ comparison allows us to assess both the extent of the trade reforms and of the economic return to those reforms. It is evident that there has been a significant rationalisation and simplification of trade policy. Burundi has eliminated most quantitative import restrictions and reduced the average level and range of its tariffs. The scope for allocative distortions, undesirable redistributive effects and for impediments to investment and growth has been substantially reduced. However, a return to reform in terms of export growth or diversification and of overall economic growth is not discernible yet. This is unsurprising, given the scale of the economic disruption. Sustained socio-political stability, among other things, will be required to induce the investment in human and physical capital needed for a positive return to trade policy reform.
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    Economic Roots of Political Conflict: The Case of Sri Lanka (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: The escalation of political conflicts in many developing countries and their impact on economic development have been topical issues in recent development literature. The overwhelming emphasis on ‘ethnic conflicts’ in the literature has, however, precluded analysts from looking at political conflicts beyond their ethnic dimension, in the wider context of the development process. In particular, because of the preoccupation with ethnic roots as the prime source of these conflicts, reverse causation, running from economic policy to political conflict, has been virtually ignored in the debate. The purpose of this paper is to fill this gap through an in-depth case study of the ‘twin political conflict’ in Sri Lanka – the Tamil separatist war in the North and the Sinhala youth uprising in the South – with emphasis on its economic roots. The findings suggest that fundamental contradictions in the national development policy in the restrictive trade regime of Sri Lanka were at the heart of the country's twin political conflict.
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    The Merits of Dual Pricing of Russian Natural Gas (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Our analysis reveals that, from Russia's perspective, there is no economic rationale to unify the price of natural gas it sells domestically and in Europe. We argue that pipelines allow Gazprom to segment the Russian market from the European (including Turkey) market and that Russia has market power in the European market. If Russia were to fail to exploit this market power in its European market, by selling its natural gas to Europe at only full long-run marginal cost plus transportation costs, Russia would lose between $5 billion and $7.5 billion per year (almost two per cent of its GDP). If, instead, Russia were to raise its domestic prices to the prices it charges in Europe, Russian industry would incur very large investment adjustment and unemployment costs in the short run – adjustment costs that cannot be justified on the basis of comparative advantage. We estimate that the efficient world price would be achieved if Gazprom were to employ its optimal ‘two-part tariff’. The optimal two-part tariff would double Gazprom's annual profits in Europe, but it involves significant long-term risks for Gazprom of lost market share.
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    Books Received (2004)
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
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    Book Reviews (2004)
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Books reviewed:DOUGLAS A. IRWIN, Free Trade Under FireBARBARA BLASZCZYK, IRAJ HOSHI and RICHARD WOODWARD (eds.), Secondary Privatisation in Transition Economies: The Evolution of Enterprise Ownership in the Czech Republic, Poland and SloveniaJAGDISH BHAGWATI (ed.), Going Alone: The Case for Relaxed Reciprocity in Freeing TradeTHEO S. EICHER and STEPHEN J. TURNOVSKY (eds.), Inequality and Growth: Theory and Policy Implications
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    Tracing the Effects of WTO Accession on Policy-making in Sovereign States: Preliminary Lessons from the Recent Experience of Transition Countries (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: We examine in this paper the effects of WTO Accession on policy-making and institutional reforms in transition countries. This is done by looking at the experience of those transition countries which are already Members of the WTO and/or which have recently acceded. We start by trying to distinguish between effects of accession negotiations and from those which are the results of autonomous policy initiatives. The areas of domestic policy-making which are considered in the analysis include market access, governance, government budget, structural reforms, trade and investment arrangements with regional partners and macroeconomic management. We find that no precise blueprint of accession conditions can be ascertained and argue that the WTO played a role, albeit not an exclusive one, in the process of liberalisation. We also find that the costs of WTO Accession are not negligible, but that the benefits of WTO Membership are significant in terms of improved, more predictable, market access and its stability, improved governance and a recourse to better economic policies without significant loss to government revenues.
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    Ideas, Interests and Oil Prices: The Political Economy of Trade Reform During Soeharto's Indonesia (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Indonesia since the late 1960s constitutes an excellent case study in the political economy of trade protection. There have been major changes in the overall policy regime, from liberalism to significant intervention, and back towards liberalism. There have been large, though declining, inter-industry variations in effective protection. There has been a lively domestic debate, much of it dominated by non-economists. Many actors at home and abroad have a stake in that debate. And, since the 1980s at least, trade policy interventions have been reasonably well documented and quantified. In this paper, we show how quantitative analysis may be employed to shed light on changes in the trade policy regime over time. We also examine the principal actors with an interest in, and influence over, trade policy, delineating where possible how their influence translated into the policy arena. Finally, we speculate on whether the framework developed in this paper is applicable to the very different circumstances prevailing in the post-Soeharto era.
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    To What Extent Can Foreign Direct Investment Help Achieve International Development Goals? (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
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    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: For FDI to help alleviate absolute poverty and stimulate economic growth in developing countries, two conditions have to be met. First, developing countries need to be attractive to foreign investors. Second, the host-country environment in which foreign investors operate must be conducive to favourable FDI effects with regard to overall investment, economic spillovers and income growth. This paper argues that it is more difficult to benefit from FDI than to attract FDI. The widely perceived concentration of FDI in few developing countries tends to obscure that, in relative terms, various small and poor countries are fairly attractive to FDI. Yet, the mobilisation of domestic resources remains by far, more important than attracting FDI for financing investment and stimulating economic growth. Furthermore, high inward FDI is no guarantee for poverty alleviation and positive growth effects. In particular, the empirical evidence suggests that host-country conditions typically prevailing in poor countries, including weak institutions and an insufficient endowment of complementary factors of production, constrain the growth-enhancing and poverty-alleviating effects of FDI. The crux is that creating an environment in which FDI may deliver social returns will take considerable time exactly where development needs are most pressing.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0378-5920.2004.00620.x
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    Why Did Argentina's Currency Board Collapse? (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper sheds light on the risks associated with currency board arrangements, referring to the severe liquidity crisis that emerged in Argentina in November 2000. The inability of the Argentinean economy to grow because of an overvalued peso and the massive borrowing needs of the government in the context of rapidly rising borrowing costs seriously undermined the credibility of the fixed-exchange rate regime. Given the widespread dollarisation of the financial sector on the liability side, Argentina had arguably little choice but to stick to the currency board. A series of measures aimed at reviving growth were implemented but with no signs of upturn in demand, increasingly distrustful international investors and growing social unrest, the country was forced into default in December 2001, putting an abrupt end to its decade long experiment with hard money. This study shows that with rigid labour markets, a lack of fiscal discipline and the absence of a natural anchor currency, Argentina was never a strong candidate for a hard peg.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0378-5920.2004.00621.x
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    Trade Causes of the Asian Crisis: The Malaysian Experience (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Prior to the onset of the Asian financial crisis there was a deterioration in the external trade position of most countries that were affected by the Asian currency crisis. However, little is known about why this occurred. This paper aims to identify the causes of a slowdown in export growth in Malaysia. While misaligned exchange rates have been widely cited as a cause of the slowdown in East Asia; in the Malaysian context at least a vulnerability to the downturn in the electronic cycle could also be a major factor leading to poor export performance. Using the US/yen dollar rate as a proxy for exchange rate misalignment and US total new orders for electronics as a proxy for global electronics demand, cointegration analysis was used to establish the likely causes of a slowdown in Malaysia's export performance. The empirical evidence suggests that the coincidence of exchange rate misalignment with a downturn in the global electronics demand cycle was responsible for the sharp deterioration in export performance.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0378-5920.2004.00623.x
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    Argentina's Currency Board Collapse: Weak Policy or Bad Luck? (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Two basic views can be discerned in post-mortems of Argentina's currency board: (1) that weak fiscal policy was fundamentally to blame, and (2) that the peso had become too severely overvalued for the peg to survive. This paper evaluates the evidence for these rival interpretations. The real effective exchange rate index did not indicate massive overvaluation, but this index does not capture the effects on the equilibrium rate of the ‘sudden stop’ in capital flows to emerging markets after 1998. It also understates the amount of adjustment required for Argentina to reach the equilibrium rate, because neighbour countries’ dollar exchange rates were held up by Argentina's overvaluation, as is indicated by their depreciation in 2002. Argentina was particularly vulnerable to the sudden stop because of the extreme volatility of its portfolio inflows. Fiscal policy simulations suggest that, even with a substantially improved primary balance from 1994 onwards, loss of investor confidence would still have triggered unsustainable debt dynamics once the recession began to bite after 1998. The stagnation of output and prices in Argentina created a yawning gap between the interest rate on debt and the rate of growth of nominal GDP. Had the currency been floated in, say, 1995, the real devaluation of the peso would still have pushed up the debt/GDP ratio, but higher output would have left greater scope for addressing this by running a sizeable primary surplus. Moreover, the more gradual depreciation under floating might have allowed the economy to adjust to higher debt service payments without resort to default. The IMF has criticised itself for not pressing for tighter fiscal policy in the 1990s. A more fundamental criticism would be that it was seduced by the bipolar model into complacency about adjustment to real shocks and forgetting the teachings of optimum currency area theory.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0378-5920.2004.00622.x
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    Book Reviews (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: Books reviewed:Robert E. Litan, Michael Pomerleano and V. Sundararjan (eds), The Future of Domestic Capital Markets in Developing CountriesPedro-Pablo Kuczynski and John Williamson (eds), After the Washington Consensus: Restarting Growth and Reform in Latin America
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0378-5920.2004.00625.x
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    R&D Productivity and the Spillover Effects of High-tech Industry on the Traditional Manufacturing Sector: The Case of Taiwan (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This study sets out to estimate the impact of R&D on productivity within the private sector, with further analysis of the different impacts of R&D within high-tech and traditional manufacturing firms. We also attempt to examine the spillover effects from R&D investment in the high-tech sector on productivity growth within the traditional industries. Using a sample of 136 large manufacturing firms during the period 1994–2000, we develop an extended version of the Cobb-Douglas production function model, and our findings suggest that Taiwan's R&D investment had a significant impact on firm productivity growth, with output elasticity standing at around 0.18. When the sample is divided into high-tech and traditional firms, the R&D output elasticity in high-tech firms is significantly greater than that found in traditional firms. In addition, the average rate of return in high-tech firms is much greater than that estimated for other industries. Besides, our empirical results show that, although significant, the impact of R&D investment from the high-tech sector, on the productivity growth of traditional firms, is rather limited.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2004.00666.x
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    Globalisation and Economic Growth: A Historical Perspective (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper reviews the historical evidence on the relationship between globalisation and economic growth. Divergence in the growth of income and industrialisation in the twentieth century is documented but it is also noted that international income inequality appears to have decreased since about 1870 and that long-run trends in the Human Development Index are much less pessimistic about the experience of developing countries. It is argued that trade liberalisation has been good for growth on average but that successful capital liberalisation requires high institutional quality and that the developmental state may have an important role to play in the early stages of development. The recent claim by Robert Lucas that the 21st century will see a massive reduction in income inequality across countries in a globalised world economy is sceptically discussed in the context of empirical evidence that bad institutions are often persistent and that geography is still a major factor in explaining international income differences.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2004.00587.x
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    Foreign Direct Investment and European Integration in the 1990s (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: This paper examines the effects of EU integration in the 1990s on the FDI relations in Europe. We find that the completion of the Single Market, the 1995 enlargement and the so-called Eastern enlargement are characterised by a substantial, positive anticipation effect in the period between the announcement and the formal establishment of each integration step. Neither the Single Market Programme nor the previous enlargement exhibited any further positive effects on intra-EU FDI volumes after their establishment.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2004.00590.x
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    How Valuable are the Patents Behind Section 337 Cases? (2004)
    Oxford, UK : Blackwell Publishing Ltd
    The @world economy 27 (2004), S. 0 
    Details
    ISSN: 1467-9701
    Source: Blackwell Publishing Journal Backfiles 1879-2005
    Topics: Law , Economics
    Notes: A US patent protects the owner of the intellectual property from imitators producing in the US and foreign imitators selling in the US market. There are two venues for filing infringement cases against international infringement of US patents, with the International Trade Commission (ITC) using Section 337 of the Tariff Act of 1930 or with federal district courts. Three indicators of patent value suggest that patents litigated under Section 337 are on average more valuable; however, their values tend to be more variable. The latter suggests that some firms may be using Section 337 not for protection against international infringement of US patents but for protection against imports.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.0378-5920.2004.00612.x
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