ALBERT

Description: In this study, the impact of oceanic data assimilation on ENSO simulations and predictions is investigated. The authors’ main objective is to compare the impact of the assimilation of sea level observations and three-dimensional temperature measurements relative to each other. Three experiments were performed. In a control run the ocean model was forced with observed winds only, and in two assimilation runs three-dimensional temperatures and sea levels were assimilated one by one. The root-mean-square differences between the model solution and observations were computed and heat content anomalies of the upper 275 m compared to each other. Three ensembles of ENSO forecasts were performed additionally to investigate the impact of data assimilation on ENSO predictions. In a control ensemble a hybrid coupled ocean–atmosphere model was initialized with observed winds only, while either three-dimensional temperatures or sea level data were assimilated during the initialization phase in two additional forecast ensembles. The predicted sea surface temperature anomalies were averaged over the eastern equatorial Pacific and compared to observations. Two different objective skill measures were computed to evaluate the impact of data assimilation on ENSO forecasts. The authors’ experiments indicate that sea level observations contain useful information and that this information can be inserted successfully into an oceanic general circulation model. It is inferred from the forecast ensembles that the benefit of sea level and temperature assimilation is comparable. However, the positive impact of sea level assimilation could be shown more clearly when the forecasted temperature differences rather than the temperature anomalies themselves were compared with observations.

Description: The seasonal cycle over the tropical Pacific simulated by 11 coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation models (GCMs) is examined. Each model consists of a high-resolution ocean GCM of either the tropical Pacific or near-global means coupled to a moderate- or high-resolution atmospheric GCM, without the use of flux correction. The seasonal behavior of sea surface temperature (SST) and eastern Pacific rainfall is presented for each model. The results show that current state-of-the-art coupled GCMs share important successes and troublesome systematic errors. All 11 models are able to simulate the mean zonal gradient in SST at the equator over the central Pacific. The simulated equatorial cold tongue generally tends to be too strong, too narrow, and extend too far west. SSTs are generally too warm in a broad region west of Peru and in a band near 10°S. This is accompanied in some models by a double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) straddling the equator over the eastern Pacific, and in others by an ITCZ that migrates across the equator with the seasons; neither behavior is realistic. There is considerable spread in the simulated seasonal cycles of equatorial SST in the eastern Pacific. Some simulations do capture the annual harmonic quite realistically, although the seasonal cold tongue tends to appear prematurely. Others overestimate the amplitude of the semiannual harmonic. Nonetheless, the results constitute a marked improvement over the simulations of only a few years ago when serious climate drift was still widespread and simulated zonal gradients of SST along the equator were often very weak.

Description: Chlorofluorocarbon-11 inventories for the deep Southern Ocean appear to confirm physical oceanographic and geochemical studies in the Southern Ocean, which suggest that no more than 5 × 106 cubic meters per second of ventilated deep water is currently being produced. This result conflicts with conclusions based on the distributions of the carbon-14/carbon ratio and a quasi-conservative property, PO4 *, in the deep sea, which seem to require an average of about 15 × 106cubic meters per second of Southern Ocean deep ventilation over about the past 800 years. A major reduction in Southern Ocean deep water production during the 20th century (from high rates during the Little Ice Age) may explain this apparent discordance. If this is true, a seesawing of deep water production between the northern Atlantic and Southern oceans may lie at the heart of the 1500-year ice-rafting cycle.

Description: During glacial cycles, different parts of the Earth cool by different amounts. A growing collection of evidence has begun to show that cooling in the tropical oceans was greater than previously thought. In his Perspective, Broecker discusses the oxygen isotope evidence reported by Schrag et al. (p. 1930) that indicates that the cooling in deep tropical water was close to the freezing point.

Description: Greenland ice-core data have revealed large decadal climate variations over the North Atlantic that can be related to a major source of low-frequency variability, the North Atlantic Oscillation. Over the past decade, the Oscillation has remained in one extreme phase during the winters, contributing significantly to the recent wintertime warmth across Europe and to cold conditions in the northwest Atlantic. An evaluation of the atmospheric moisture budget reveals coherent large-scale changes since 1980 that are linked to recent dry conditions over southern Europe and the Mediterranean, whereas northern Europe and parts of Scandinavia have generally experienced wetter than normal conditions.

Description: A coral reef represents the net accumulation of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) produced by corals and other calcifying organisms. If calcification declines, then reef-building capacity also declines. Coral reef calcification depends on the saturation state of the carbonate mineral aragonite of surface waters. By the middle of the next century, an increased concentration of carbon dioxide will decrease the aragonite saturation state in the tropics by 30 percent and biogenic aragonite precipitation by 14 to 30 percent. Coral reefs are particularly threatened, because reef-building organisms secrete metastable forms of CaCO3, but the biogeochemical consequences on other calcifying marine ecosystems may be equally severe.

Description: In this paper the performance of the global coupled general circulation model (CGCM) ECHO-2, which was integrated for 10 years without the application of flux correction, is described. Although the integration is rather short, strong and weak points of this CGCM can be clearly identified, especially in view of the model's performance of the annual cycle in the tropical Pacific. The latter is simulated with more success relative to the earlier version, ECHO-I. A better representation of the low-level stratus clouds in the atmosphere model associated with a reduction in the shortwave radiative flux at the air-sea interface improved the coupled model's performance in the southeastern tropical oceans, with a strongly reduced warm bias in these regions. Modifications in the atmospheric convection scheme also eliminated the AGCM's tendency to simulate a double ITCZ, and this behavior is maintained in the CGCM simulation. Finally, a new numerical scheme for active tracer advection in the ocean model strongly reduced the numerical mixing, which seems to enhance considerably the level of interannual variability in the equatorial Pacific. One weak point is an overall cold bias in the Tropics and midlatitudes, which typically amounts to 1°C in open ocean regions. Another weak point is the still too strong equatorial cold tongue, which penetrates too far into the western equatorial Pacific. Although this model deficiency is not as pronounced as in ECHO-1, the too strong cold tongue reduces the level of interannual rainfall variability in the western and central equatorial Pacific. Finally, the interannual fluctuations in equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are too equatorially trapped, a problem that is also found in ocean-only simulations. Overall, however, the authors believe that the ECHO-2 CGCM has been considerably improved relative to ECHO-1.