ALBERT — All Library Books, journals and Electronic Records Telegrafenberg

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Zur Land- und Bodendegradation – ein Rück- und Ausblick deutschland- und weltweit (2023)

Feyk, Manfred

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-12

Beschreibung: Soils and landscapes are bridges of space and time, as they simultaneously and authentically show essential aspects that were previously separated by time and space (such as cultural and activity-related aspects from past and present) to the trained observer - albeit only in excerpts. Therefore, this article presents a series of impact indicators for soil changes, starting with extreme (anthropogenic) interventions and ending with equally extreme ("natural") events. An essential difference to specifically planning-relevant or human ecological concepts, which, for example, specify land use/load categories, is that the following impact indicators perceive soils as a phenomenon in themselves and do not define them through attributed functions. Particular attention is focused on their changeability and vital development potential, as well as on their property as a sphere of penetration of living and material things, with emphasis on the noetic effect. The intervention or event spaces on the earth's surface can be differentiated quantitatively through the type, strength, and duration of the phenomena. The intensity of all processes can be described by amplitude (the strength of the interventions/events) and frequency (the repetition rate of the interventions/events) and can be specifically identified and quantified by, for example, material inputs or outputs per unit of time. For the first time, there would be a system for measuring the ecological quality of anthropogenic land use, which could serve as an "alert system for the external technological culture," and could help us become aware of our "inner" culture.

Beschreibung: research

Schlagwort(e): ddc:550 ; Boden ; Landschaft ; Bodendegeneration ; Deutschland ; Anthropogene Bodenveränderung

Sprache: Deutsch

Materialart: doc-type:article

Format: 9

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Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf das Grundwasser und die Wasserversorgung in Süddeutschland (2021)

Fliß, Ronja ; Baumeister, Christof ; Gudera, Thomas ; [weitere]

Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-08-17

Beschreibung: Für die öffentliche Trinkwasserversorgung in Süddeutschland wird größtenteils Grund- und Quellwasser genutzt. Der Kenntnis über die Entwicklung des Bodenwasserhaushalts und insbesondere der Grundwasserneubildung kommt somit eine große Bedeutung zu. Im Rahmen der Kooperation KLIWA (Klimaveränderung und Konsequenzen für die Wasserwirtschaft, www.kliwa.de) wurde die Entwicklung des Bodenwasserhaushaltes und der Grundwasserneubildung aus Niederschlag für den Zeitraum von 1951 bis 2019 für die Länder Baden-Württemberg, Bayern, Hessen und Rheinland-Pfalz mit dem Bodenwasserhaushaltmodell GWN-BW modelliert. Seit Ende der 1980er-Jahre zeigt sich ein Anstieg der mittleren jährlichen Temperatur in Süddeutschland. Die jährlichen Niederschlagssummen haben sich in der jüngeren Vergangenheit (seit 2003) reduziert und somit eine deutliche Verringerung der Grundwasserneubildung aus Niederschlag bewirkt. Gleichzeitig ist eine Zunahme des Trockenheitsindex (Anzahl an Tagen mit Füllung des Bodenwasserspeichers 〈 30 % der nutzbaren Feldkapazität) zu erkennen. Häufiger werdende und länger anhaltende Trockenperioden stellen auch die Wasserwirtschaft zunehmend vor Herausforderungen und bedürfen der frühzeitigen Entwicklung von Handlungsoptionen, z. B. auf der Basis des hier vorgestellten „Trockenwetterdargebots“, um Nutzungskonflikte zu entschärfen.

Beschreibung: LUBW Landesanstalt für Umwelt Baden-Württemberg (5309)

Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.49 ; Wasserversorgung ; Bodenwasserhaushalt ; Grundwasserneubildung ; Klimawandel ; Handlungsoption ; Anpassung ; Water supply ; Soil water balance ; Groundwater recharge ; Climate change ; Action recommendation ; Adaption

Sprache: Deutsch

Materialart: doc-type:article

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Natural hazards and climate change are not drivers of disasters (2021)

Ismail-Zadeh, Alik ; Ismail-Zadeh, Alik; Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-08-25

Beschreibung: Many nations face challenges in assessing, understanding, and responding to the time-dependent nature of disaster risk. Changes in the intensity of occurrences of extreme events coupled with changes in vulnerability and exposure alter the impacts of natural hazards on society in mostly negative ways. Here an interrelationship between natural hazard (NH), climate change (CC), vulnerability (V), exposure (E), and decisionmaking (DM) is considered. While NHs trigger disasters and CC is likely to intensify occurrences of disasters, V and E present major drivers of disasters. Informed DM on disaster risk reduction should be based on scientific evidence from NH and CC, knowledge of V and E, and relevant options for actions on preventive disaster measures as a part of preparedness and public awareness.

Beschreibung: Russian Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100006769

Beschreibung: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) (4220)

Schlagwort(e): ddc:363.7 ; Disaster ; Vulnerability ; Exposure ; Natural hazard ; Risk ; Climate change ; Preparedness ; Public awareness

Sprache: Englisch

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Environmental matching reveals non-uniform range-shift patterns in benthic marine Crustacea (2021)

Simões, Marianna V. P. ; Saeedi, Hanieh ; Cobos, Marlon E. ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-08-25

Beschreibung: Empirical and theoretical studies suggest that marine species respond to ocean warming by shifting ranges poleward and/or into deeper depths. However, future distributional patterns of deep-sea organisms, which comprise the largest ecosystem of Earth, remain poorly known. We explore potential horizontal range shifts of benthic shallow-water and deep-sea Crustacea due to climatic changes within the remainder of the century, and discuss the results in light of species-specific traits related to invasiveness. Using a maximum entropy approach, we estimated the direction and magnitude of distributional shifts for 94 species belonging to 12 orders of benthic marine crustaceans, projected to the years 2050 and 2100. Distance, direction, and species richness shifts between climate zones were estimated conservatively, by considering only areas suitable, non-extrapolative, and adjacent to the currently known distributions. Our hypothesis is that species will present poleward range-shifts, based on results of previous studies. Results reveal idiosyncratic and species-specific responses, with prevailing poleward shifts and a decline of species richness at mid-latitudes, while more frequent shifts between temperate to polar regions were recovered. Shallow-water species are expected to shift longer distances than deep-sea species. Net gain of suitability is slightly higher than the net loss for shallow-water species, while for deep-sea species, the net loss is higher than the gain in all scenarios. Our estimates can be viewed as a set of hypotheses for future analytical and empirical studies, and will be useful in planning and executing strategic interventions and developing conservation strategies.

Beschreibung: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347

Beschreibung: Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung (SGN) (3507)

Schlagwort(e): ddc:577.7 ; Climate change ; Deep-sea ; Shallow-water ; Distributional shift ; Ecological niche modeling ; Mobility-oriented parity metric (MOP)

Sprache: Englisch

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Experiencing climate change: revisiting the role of local weather in affecting climate change awareness and related policy preferences (2021)

Gärtner, Lea ; Schoen, Harald ; Gärtner, Lea; Chair for Political Science, Political Psychology, University of Mannheim, Mannheim, Germany ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-08-24

Beschreibung: Over the last few years, climate change has risen to the top of the agenda in many Western democracies, backed by a growing share of voters supporting climate protection policies. To understand how and why these changes came about, we revisit the question whether personal experiences with increasingly unusual local weather conditions affect people’s beliefs about climate change and their related attitudes. We first take a closer look at the theoretical underpinnings and extend the theoretical argument to account for the differential impact of different weather phenomena, as well as the role of prior beliefs and individual reference frames. Applying mixed-effects regressions to a novel dataset combining individual-level multi-wave panel survey data from up to 18,010 German voters collected from 2016 to 2019 with weather data from 514 weather stations, we show that personally experiencing unusual or extreme local weather did not shape people’s awareness of climate change as a political problem or their climate policy preferences in a sustained manner. Even among people who may be considered most likely to exhibit such effects, we did not detect them. Moreover, we demonstrate that the common modeling strategy of combining fixed-effects regression with clustered standard errors leads to severely reduced standard errors and substantively different results. We conclude that it cannot be taken for granted that personally experiencing extreme weather phenomena makes a difference in perceptions of climate change and related policy preferences.

Beschreibung: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659

Schlagwort(e): ddc:363.7 ; Climate change ; Policy preferences ; Experiential learning ; Mixed-effects regression ; Panel data

Sprache: Englisch

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Modellierung der küstennahen Grundwasserversalzung in Niedersachsen abgeleitet aus aeroelektromagnetischen Daten (2021)

González, Eva ; Deus, Nico ; Elbracht, Jörg ; [weitere]

Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-08-08

Beschreibung: Die Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) führte in den Jahren 2000–2014 umfangreiche (etwa 5900 km2) aerogeophysikalische Erkundungen an der niedersächsischen Nordseeküste durch. Die Aeroelektromagnetik liefert Informationen über die elektrisch leitfähigen Strukturen im Erduntergrund und ermöglicht die Unterscheidung von Süß- und Salzwasser wie auch von Tonen und Sanden. Im Landesamt für Bergbau, Energie und Geologie (LBEG) sowie am Leibniz Institut für Angewandte Geophysik (LIAG) wurden diese Daten zur Kartierung der Tiefenlage der Süß‑/Salzwassergrenze genutzt. Dadurch ist unter anderem eine detaillierte Karte der Grundwasserversalzung innerhalb der küstennahen Aquifere entlang der niedersächsischen Nordseeküste im Maßstab 1:50.000 entstanden. Diese zeigt den aktuellen Stand der Grundwasserversalzung, abgeleitet aus den gewonnenen Elektromagnetik-Modellen. Die Modelle waren auch Grundlage für eine hydraulische Modellierung der Süßwasserlinse der Nordseeinsel Borkum. Darauf aufbauende Simulationen zeigen die Entwicklung der Grundwassersituation für den Zeitraum bis 2100.

Beschreibung: Landesamt für Bergbau, Energie und Geologie (LBEG) (4273)

Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.49 ; Grundwasserversalzung ; Modellierung ; Aeroelektromagnetik ; Klimawandel ; Süßwasserlinse ; Fresh-saline groundwater Interface ; Climate change ; Airborne electromagnetics ; Freshwater lenses

Sprache: Deutsch

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Crop diversity effects on temporal agricultural production stability across European regions (2021)

Egli, Lukas ; Schröter, Matthias ; Scherber, Christoph ; [weitere]

Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-07-29

Beschreibung: Stabilizing agricultural production is fundamental to food security. At the national level, increasing the effective diversity of cultivated crops has been found to increase temporal production stability, i.e., the year-to-year stability of total caloric production of all crops combined. Here, we specifically investigated these effects at the regional level for the European Union and tested the effect of crop diversity in relation to agricultural inputs, soil properties, climate instability, and time on caloric, protein, and fat stability, as we hypothesized that the effect of diversity is context dependent. We further investigated these relationships for specific countries. We found that greater crop diversity was consistently associated with an increase in production stability, particularly in regions with large areas equipped for irrigation and low soil type diversity. For instance, in Spain and Italy, crop diversity showed the strongest positive effect among all predictors, while on the European level, the stabilizing effect of nitrogen use was substantially higher. In Germany, the crop diversity-stability relationship was weak, suggesting that crops react similarly to climatic, economic, and political factors or are grown in the same periods. With this study, we substantiate previous findings that crop diversity stabilizes agricultural caloric production and extend these with regard to protein and fat. The results elucidate the key drivers that enhance production stability for different European countries and regions, which is of key importance for a comparably productive agricultural region like Europe.

Beschreibung: Helmholtz-Gemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001656

Beschreibung: Helmholtz-Zentrum für Umweltforschung GmbH - UFZ (4215)

Schlagwort(e): ddc: ; Agroecology ; Climate change ; Resilience ; Sustainability

Sprache: Englisch

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Can Tanzania’s adaptation measures prevent future maize yield decline? A simulation study from Singida region (2021)

Volk, Johanna ; Gornott, Christoph ; Sieber, Stefan ; [weitere]

Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-08-01

Beschreibung: Cereal crop production in sub-Saharan Africa has not achieved the much-needed increase in yields to foster economic development and food security. Maize yields in the region’s semi-arid agroecosystems are constrained by highly variable rainfall, which may be worsened by climate change. Thus, the Tanzanian government has prioritized agriculture as an adaptation sector in its intended nationally determined contribution, and crop management adjustments as a key investment area in its Agricultural Sector Development Programme. In this study, we investigated how future changes in maize yields under different climate scenarios can be countered by regional adjusted crop management and cultivar adaptation strategies. A crop model was used to simulate maize yields in the Singida region of Tanzania for the baseline period 1980–2012 and under three future climate projections for 2020–2060 and 2061–2099. Adaptation strategies to improve yields were full irrigation, deficit irrigation, mulch and nitrogen addition and another cultivar. According to our model results, increase in temperature is the main driver of future maize yield decline. Increased respiration and phenological development were associated with lower maize yields of 16% in 2020–2060 and 20% in 2061–2099 compared to the 1980–2012 baseline. Surprisingly, none of the management strategies significantly improved yields; however, a different maize variety that was tested as an alternative coping strategy performed better. This study suggests that investment in accessibility of improved varieties and investigation of maize traits that have the potential to perform well in a warmer future are better suited for sustaining maize production in the semi-arid region than adjustments in crop management.

Beschreibung: Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF)

Beschreibung: Universität Hohenheim (3153)

Schlagwort(e): ddc:631 ; Maize ; Climate change ; Adaptation ; Model ; Tanzania ; NDC

Sprache: Englisch

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Assessment of crop risk due to climate change in Sao Tome and Principe (2021)

Costa Resende Ferreira, Nicole ; Martins, Minella ; da Silva Tavares, Priscila ; [weitere]

Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-08-01

Beschreibung: Sao Tome and Principe is a small insular country in the west coast of Central Africa. The small dimensions of the islands and the limited natural resources put these islands under highly vulnerable to climate change. To assess the possible future impacts and risks on their agricultural activities, the high-resolution 4-km downscaled climate change projections using Eta regional climate model are used. A crop risk index (CRI) is proposed to assess the risk of climate change on cocoa (Theobroma cacao L.), pepper (Piper nigrum L. and Piper guinesse L.), taro (Colocasia esculenta (L.) Schott), and maize (Zea mays L.). The index takes into account the vulnerability to climate conditions and the crop yield in the future, and it is classified into very-high, high, moderate, low, and very-low. The climate change projections indicate increase in the risk of taro crop, partly due to thermal stress and partly due to the susceptibility to the leaf blight crop disease in taro. The risk of production of the pepper crop is very-high, mainly due to water stress. In mountain regions, the greater risk is due to the thermal stress caused by low temperatures. The cocoa crop is at risk due to water stress, mainly in the northwestern part of the Sao Tome Island, where major local production occurs. The projection indicates increase of the area with very-high risk to maize crops due to the increase of thermal stress and susceptibility to rust. In addition, in parts of the coastal regions, the risk changed from very-low to high risk, due to the low productivity potential. In general, the risks of the four major crops of Sao Tome and Principe increase in the future climate conditions.

Beschreibung: UNEP, FUNDEP, Sao Tome and Principe National Institute of Meteorology

Beschreibung: CNPq

Schlagwort(e): ddc:631 ; Crop risk index ; Climate change ; Small Islands Developing States ; Eta model ; Agriculture risk assessment

Sprache: Englisch

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Climate change impacts on potential maize yields in Gambella Region, Ethiopia (2021)

Degife, Azeb W. ; Zabel, Florian ; Mauser, Wolfram ; [weitere]

Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-08-01

Beschreibung: Changing climate conditions are supposed to have particularly strong impacts on agricultural production in the tropics with strong implications on food security. Ethiopia’s economy is profoundly dominated by agriculture, contributing to around 40% of the gross domestic product. Thereby, Ethiopia is one of the most vulnerable countries to the impact of climate change and has a wide gap in regional climate change impact studies. In this study, we systematically investigate climate change impacts on yields for the Gambella region in Ethiopia, exemplarily for maize. Here, we show how yields change until 2100 for RCPs 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5 from a climate model ensemble under rainfed and irrigated conditions. While rainfed yields decrease by 15% and 14% respectively for RCPs 2.6 and 4.5, yields decrease by up to 32% under RCP 8.5. Except for RCP 8.5, yields are not further decreasing after 2040–2069. We found that temperature increase, changing soil water availability, and atmospheric CO2 concentration have different effects on the simulated yield potential. Our results demonstrate the dominance of heat response under future climate conditions in the tropical Gambella region, contributing to 85% of total yield changes. Accordingly, irrigation will lose effectiveness for increasing yield when temperature becomes the limiting factor. CO2, on the other hand, contributes positively to yield changes by 8.9% for RCP 8.5. For all scenarios, the growing period is shorted due to increasing temperature by up to 29 days for RCP 8.5. Our results suggest that new varieties with higher growing degree days are primarily required to the region for adapting to future climate conditions.

Beschreibung: Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (1024)

Schlagwort(e): ddc:631 ; Climate change ; Agriculture ; Regional study ; Crop model

Sprache: Englisch

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Current and future state of groundwater salinization of the northern Elbe-Weser region (2021)

González, Eva ; Deus, Nico ; Elbracht, Jörg ; [weitere]

Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-08-09

Beschreibung: Salinization of the upper aquifer of the northern Elbe-Weser region almost extends to the surface. Chloride content exceeds 250 mg/l and the groundwater is therefore, according to the German Drinking Water Ordinance, not suitable as drinking water. The chloride content in the aquifer originates from early flooding with seawater which occurred during the Holocene sea level rise. Depth and extent of the salinization were mapped by airborne electromagnetic surveys and validated by groundwater analyses. In the transition zone between the marshlands and geest areas, the fresh-saline groundwater interface falls to a depth of 〉 −175 m NHN. Due to the extensive drainage of the marshlands, seepage of fresh groundwater is impeded. Instead, an upconing of the fresh-saline groundwater interface appears due to an upwardly directed hydraulic gradient. Due to climate change, chloride concentrations will increase along the coastlines. Further inland, a decrease of chloride content in near-surface groundwater will occur.

Beschreibung: Interreg http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100013276

Beschreibung: Landesamt für Bergbau, Energie und Geologie (LBEG) (4273)

Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.49 ; Fresh-saline groundwater interface ; HEM ; Drainage ; Cl/Br ratio ; Climate change ; Süß‑/Salzwassergrenze ; HEM ; Cl/Br-Verhältnis ; Klimawandel

Sprache: Englisch

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Global vulnerability hotspots: differences and agreement between international indicator-based assessments (2021)

Feldmeyer, Daniel ; Birkmann, Joern ; McMillan, Joanna M. ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2024-02-15

Beschreibung: Climate change impacts and their consequences are determined not only by the intensity and frequency of different climatic hazards but also by the vulnerability of the system, society or community exposed. While general agreement exists about the importance of assessing vulnerability to understand climate risks, there is still a tendency to neglect global and regional vulnerability patterns because they are hard to quantify, despite their value in informing adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Several approaches to quantifying global vulnerability exist. These differ in terms of the indicators they use and how they classify countries or regions into vulnerability classes. The paper presents the structure of selected approaches and explores two indices in depth. The aim of this paper is to assess the level of agreement between selected international indicator-based assessments of vulnerability, at the level of climate regions. Results suggest that the two major global vulnerability assessments analysed largely agree on the location of the most and least vulnerable regions when these assessments are aggregated to a regional scale using the IPCC’s climate regions. The paper then discusses the robustness of the information derived and its usefulness for adaptation, disaster risk and development policies. Measuring progress towards reducing vulnerability to climate change and hazards is key for various agencies and actors in order to be able to develop informed policies and strategies for managing climate risks and to promote enabling conditions for achieving the SDGs and building resilience.

Beschreibung: Universität Stuttgart (1023)

Schlagwort(e): ddc:304.28 ; Vulnerability ; Hotspots ; Indicators ; Climate change ; Global mapping

Sprache: Englisch

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Elastic deformation plays a non-negligible role in Greenland’s outlet glacier flow (2021)

Christmann, Julia ; Helm, Veit ; Khan, Shfaqat Abbas ; [weitere]

Nature Publishing Group UK

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-11-13

Beschreibung: Future projections of global mean sea level change are uncertain, partly because of our limited understanding of the dynamics of Greenland’s outlet glaciers. Here we study Nioghalvfjerdsbræ, an outlet glacier of the Northeast Greenland Ice Stream that holds 1.1 m sea-level equivalent of ice. We use GPS observations and numerical modelling to investigate the role of tides as well as the elastic contribution to glacier flow. We find that ocean tides alter the basal lubrication of the glacier up to 10 km inland of the grounding line, and that their influence is best described by a viscoelastic rather than a viscous model. Further inland, sliding is the dominant mechanism of fast glacier motion, and the ice flow induces persistent elastic strain. We conclude that elastic deformation plays a role in glacier flow, particularly in areas of steep topographic changes and fast ice velocities.

Beschreibung: Ice flow dynamics in Greenland’s outlet glaciers are influenced by elastic deformation, both in the area of tidal influence up to 14 km inland from the grounding line and further upstream, suggest analyses of GPS observations and numerical simulations.

Beschreibung: Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung (Federal Ministry of Education and Research) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100002347

Beschreibung: European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme

Beschreibung: https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.928940

Beschreibung: https://nsidc.org/data/IDBMG4

Beschreibung: https://gitlab.awi.de/jchristm/viscoelastic-79ng-greenland

Beschreibung: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5507115

Beschreibung: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5506953

Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.31 ; Climate change ; Cryospheric science ; Hydrology

Sprache: Englisch

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Measurements meet human observations: integrating distinctive ways of knowing in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan to assess local climate change (2021)

Haag, Isabell ; Kassam, Karim-Aly ; Senftl, Thomas ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-11-15

Beschreibung: In mountain environments dimensions of climate change are unclear because of limited availability of meteorological stations. However, there is a necessity to assess the scope of local climate change, as the livelihood and food systems of subsistence-based communities are already getting impacted. To provide more clarity about local climate trends in the Pamir Mountains of Tajikistan, this study integrates measured climate data with community observations in the villages of Savnob and Roshorv. Taking a transdisciplinary approach, both knowledge systems were considered as equally pertinent and mutually informed the research process. Statistical trends of temperature and snow cover were retrieved using downscaled ERA5 temperature data and the snow cover product MOD10A1. Local knowledge was gathered through community workshops and structured interviews and analysed using a consensus index. Results showed, that local communities perceived increasing temperatures in autumn and winter and decreasing amounts of snow and rain. Instrumental data records indicated an increase in summer temperatures and a shortening of the snow season in Savnob. As both knowledge systems entail their own strengths and limitations, an integrative assessment can broaden the understanding of local climate trends by (i) reducing existing uncertainties, (ii) providing new information, and (iii) introducing unforeseen perspectives. The presented study represents a time-efficient and global applicable approach for assessing local dimensions of climate change in data-deficient regions.

Beschreibung: Projekt DEAL

Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.6 ; Climate change ; Pamir Mountains ; Local knowledge ; Perception ; Climate data ; Statistical downscaling

Sprache: Englisch

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Climate change literacy and migration potential: micro-level evidence from Africa (2021)

Helbling, Marc ; Auer, Daniel ; Meierrieks, Daniel ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-11-17

Beschreibung: While a growing literature studies the effects of climate change on international migration, still only relatively little is known about the individual mechanisms linking migration decisions to climate change. We argue that climate change literacy (i.e., knowledge about climate change) is a major determinant of why some individuals consider migrating to other countries in response to climate change effects. In particular, climate change literacy helps individuals translate their perceptions of temperature changes into an understanding of these changes’ irreversible long-term consequences. We test this hypothesis using highly accurate geo-coded data for 37,000 individuals across 30 African countries. We show that climate change indeed leads to stronger migration intentions among climate literates only. Furthermore, we show that climate change only increases migration intentions among climate literates when it is approximated by long-run increases in local temperatures, but not when operationalized as changing heat wave or precipitation patterns. Further analyses show that climate literates are more likely to live in urban areas, have a higher news consumption, are highly educated, and have demanding occupations. Consequently, climate change may further deprive affected countries of valuable talent.

Beschreibung: leibniz-gemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001664

Beschreibung: Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin für Sozialforschung gGmbH (3511)

Beschreibung: https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/3LRAFL

Schlagwort(e): ddc:304.2 ; International migration ; Migration intentions ; Climate change ; Climate change literacy ; Africa

Sprache: Englisch

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Climate change vulnerability, water resources and social implications in North Africa (2020)

Schilling, Janpeter ; Hertig, Elke ; Tramblay, Yves ; [weitere]

Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-21

Beschreibung: North Africa is considered a climate change hot spot. Existing studies either focus on the physical aspects of climate change or discuss the social ones. The present article aims to address this divide by assessing and comparing the climate change vulnerability of Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, and Tunisia and linking it to its social implications. The vulnerability assessment focuses on climate change exposure, water resources, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results suggest that all countries are exposed to strong temperature increases and a high drought risk under climate change. Algeria is most vulnerable to climate change, mainly due to the country’s high sensitivity. Across North Africa, the combination of climate change and strong population growth is very likely to further aggravate the already scarce water situation. The so-called Arab Spring has shown that social unrest is partly caused by unmet basic needs of the population for food and water. Thus, climate change may become an indirect driver of social instability in North Africa. To mitigate the impact of climate change, it is important to reduce economic and livelihood dependence on rain-fed agriculture, strengthen sustainable land use practices, and increase the adaptive capacity. Further, increased regional cooperation and sub-national vulnerability assessments are needed.

Beschreibung: Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659

Beschreibung: National Geographic Society http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100006363

Schlagwort(e): ddc:304.28 ; Climate change ; Vulnerability ; Resilience ; Water ; Conflict ; North Africa

Sprache: Englisch

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Regional climate downscaling over Europe: perspectives from the EURO-CORDEX community (2020)

Jacob, Daniela ; Teichmann, Claas ; Sobolowski, Stefan ; [weitere]

Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-21

Beschreibung: The European CORDEX (EURO-CORDEX) initiative is a large voluntary effort that seeks to advance regional climate and Earth system science in Europe. As part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) - Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), it shares the broader goals of providing a model evaluation and climate projection framework and improving communication with both the General Circulation Model (GCM) and climate data user communities. EURO-CORDEX oversees the design and coordination of ongoing ensembles of regional climate projections of unprecedented size and resolution (0.11° EUR-11 and 0.44° EUR-44 domains). Additionally, the inclusion of empirical-statistical downscaling allows investigation of much larger multi-model ensembles. These complementary approaches provide a foundation for scientific studies within the climate research community and others. The value of the EURO-CORDEX ensemble is shown via numerous peer-reviewed studies and its use in the development of climate services. Evaluations of the EUR-44 and EUR-11 ensembles also show the benefits of higher resolution. However, significant challenges remain. To further advance scientific understanding, two flagship pilot studies (FPS) were initiated. The first investigates local-regional phenomena at convection-permitting scales over central Europe and the Mediterranean in collaboration with the Med-CORDEX community. The second investigates the impacts of land cover changes on European climate across spatial and temporal scales. Over the coming years, the EURO-CORDEX community looks forward to closer collaboration with other communities, new advances, supporting international initiatives such as the IPCC reports, and continuing to provide the basis for research on regional climate impacts and adaptation in Europe.

Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.6 ; EURO-CORDEX ; CORDEX ; Climate change ; Regional climate models ; Regional climate modelling

Sprache: Englisch

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Air quality co-benefits of ratcheting up the NDCs (2020)

Rauner, Sebastian ; Hilaire, Jérôme ; Klein, David ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-12

Beschreibung: The current nationally determined contributions, pledged by the countries under the Paris Agreement, are far from limiting climate change to below 2 ∘C temperature increase by the end of the century. The necessary ratcheting up of climate policy is projected to come with a wide array of additional benefits, in particular a reduction of today’s 4.5 million annual premature deaths due to poor air quality. This paper therefore addresses the question how climate policy and air pollution–related health impacts interplay until 2050 by developing a comprehensive global modeling framework along the cause and effect chain of air pollution–induced social costs. We find that ratcheting up climate policy to a 2 ∘ compliant pathway results in welfare benefits through reduced air pollution that are larger than mitigation costs, even with avoided climate change damages neglected. The regional analysis demonstrates that the 2 ∘C pathway is therefore, from a social cost perspective, a “no-regret option” in the global aggregate, but in particular for China and India due to high air quality benefits, and also for developed regions due to net negative mitigation costs. Energy and resource exporting regions, on the other hand, face higher mitigation cost than benefits. Our analysis further shows that the result of higher health benefits than mitigation costs is robust across various air pollution control scenarios. However, although climate mitigation results in substantial air pollution emission reductions overall, we find significant remaining emissions in the transport and industry sectors even in a 2 ∘C world. We therefore call for further research in how to optimally exploit climate policy and air pollution control, deriving climate change mitigation pathways that maximize co-benefits.

Schlagwort(e): ddc:363.73 ; Air pollution ; Co-benefits ; Climate change ; Health impacts

Sprache: Englisch

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Climate change adaptation strategies, productivity and sustainable food security in southern Mali (2020)

Diallo, Aboubacar ; Donkor, Emmanuel ; Owusu, Victor ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-12

Beschreibung: Many people in African countries derive their livelihoods from agriculture. Therefore, unfavourable environmental and climatic conditions render them more vulnerable to increasing food insecurity and poverty rates. However, few studies have investigated how farmers’ adaptation strategies affect farm productivity and household food security in the Sahelian region, notably Mali. We analyse factors that influence adaptation strategies to climate change and the impacts of the adaptation strategies on maize productivity and household food security in southern Mali. Farmers use adaptation strategies such as organic fertilizers, changing planting dates and growing of short duration maize varieties to mitigate against the negative effects of climate change. We find that farmer experience, number of livestock owned, off-farm employment, access to credit, farmer association and technical training exert positive effects on the use of planting short-duration maize varieties as an adaptation strategy, while distance to the farm shows a negative effect. We observe that household size, experience in maize farming, number of livestock owned and technical training positively influence farmers to change planting dates as an adaptation strategy. The use of organic fertilizers and short-duration maize varieties promote maize productivity and food security. We conclude that building farmers’ adaptive capacity tends to reduce their vulnerability to climate change by increasing crop yields and food security.

Beschreibung: CGIAR Fund

Schlagwort(e): ddc:304.28 ; Adaptation strategies ; Climate change ; Environmental change ; Food security ; Maize yield ; Mali

Sprache: Englisch

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Climate humanitarian visa: international migration opportunities as post-disaster humanitarian intervention (2020)

Matias, Denise Margaret S. ; Matias, Denise Margaret S.; Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre/Senckenberg Biodiversität und Klima-Forschungszentrum, Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-12

Beschreibung: With global action being outpaced by climate change impacts, communities in climate-vulnerable countries are at increased risk of incurring climate-induced losses and damages. In the last few years, disasters from extreme weather events such as typhoons have increased and have breached records, with typhoon Haiyan being the strongest ever typhoon to make landfall. Such an event solicited global compassion and altruism where Canada and the USA, apart from doling out traditional humanitarian aid, also offered immigration relief opportunities to typhoon Haiyan victims who have familial connections to their residents. Drawing from these immigration relief interventions, this paper uses a sociopolitical approach in proposing a climate humanitarian visa that would be offered to climate change victims on the basis of transnational family networks and skilled labor. Noting that several countries such as in Europe have demographic deficits and labor shortages, such a scheme would benefit both climate change victims and receiving countries. To counter the risk of selective compassion against economically trapped populations, potential receiving countries could provide skills upgrading geared toward addressing their labor shortages through their existing development programs. While migration is only one strategy in a spectrum of responses to climate change impacts, a climate humanitarian visa could provide climate change victims a legal choice for mobility while invoking altruism, hospitality, and compassion from potential receiving countries, whether or not they historically cause climate change.

Beschreibung: Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn (1040)

Schlagwort(e): ddc:304.28 ; Climate change ; Extreme weather events ; Emigration ; Displacement ; UNFCCC

Sprache: Englisch

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Attitudes towards climate change migrants (2020)

Helbling, Marc ; Helbling, Marc; University of Bamberg, Bamberg, Germany

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-12

Beschreibung: While climate change has become a salient political and social issue in Western societies, we know relatively little about how these societies will react to one of the potentially important consequences of climate change: increasing migration flows. By means of a representative online survey in Germany, this paper therefore investigates for the very first time to what extent citizens in industrialized societies are willing to accept climate change migrants, especially in comparison with other groups of migrants and refugees, and the circumstances and principles under which they would accept them. The findings show that climate change migrants receive high support levels comparable with those enjoyed by political refugees (migrants who need special protection) and that contrast with attitudes towards economic migrants (who are often not seen as in need of special protection). We also see that people are more likely to accept justifications for taking climate change migrants when they realize that the expected number of migrants is relatively low. While arguments about morality, corrective justice, and a country’s capacity lead to similar acceptance rates in general, the latter argument plays a more important role for highly educated people and non-environmentalists than the former two. The findings of this study allow us to better prepare for potential conflicts that might emerge with increasing migration flows caused by climate change.

Beschreibung: University of Bamberg

Schlagwort(e): ddc:304.28 ; Climate change ; Migration ; Prejudices

Sprache: Englisch

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Climate change, ecosystem services and migration in the Marshall Islands: are they related? (2020)

van der Geest, Kees ; Burkett, Maxine ; Fitzpatrick, Juno ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-12

Beschreibung: As one of the lowest-lying island nation states in the world, the Republic of the Marshall Islands is vulnerable to sea level rise, flooding and the associated impacts on soil and water salinity. Persistent drought is further affecting agricultural production and access to drinking water, and heat stress is increasingly common. The number of Marshallese people residing in the USA has increased rapidly from 6650 in 2000 to an estimated 30,000 in 2018. While we know that climate change is already affecting the Marshall Islands and that there are significant migration flows, we do not know to what extent people already migrate because of climate change. This paper addresses this gap and presents findings from interdisciplinary fieldwork in the Marshall Islands and destination areas in the USA. The research team conducted a survey (N = 278), focus group discussions, expert interviews and a geo-spatial analysis of flood extent and migration rates to study the relationship between climatic events, ecosystem services and migration. The results show that respondents primarily cite education, health care, work and family visits as migration drivers, and only few mention climate impacts or environmental change. However, respondents do identify impacts of climate change on their livelihoods, health and safety, and the study finds significant correlations between climate impacts, trends in ecosystem services and migration propensities at household level. Furthermore, 62% of Marshallese respondents in the USA indicated that climate change affects their decision to return to Marshall Islands in the future.

Beschreibung: Pacific Islands Climate Adaptation Center

Beschreibung: Pacific Research and Integrated Science Assessments Program

Schlagwort(e): ddc:304.28 ; Climate change ; Migration ; Ecosystem services ; Sea level rise ; Drought ; Pacific

Sprache: Englisch

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Auswirkungen des Klimawandels auf die zukünftige Grundwassernutzung – Betroffenheiten, Handlungsbedarfe und Lösungsansätze (2020)

Bender, Steffen ; Groth, Markus ; Viktor, Elisabeth ; [weitere]

Springer Berlin Heidelberg

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-23

Beschreibung: Die Ergebnisse regionaler Klimaprojektionen für Deutschland weisen auf eine Zunahme der mittleren Lufttemperatur und eine innerjährliche Verschiebung der Niederschläge – mit feuchteren Wintern und trockeneren Sommern – hin. Darüber hinaus werden sich regional die Häufigkeit, Intensität und Dauer von Hitzewellen, Trockenperioden und Starkregenereignissen weiter erhöhen. Durch diese Veränderungen wird sich auch der Jahresgang der Grundwasserneubildung ändern. Als Folge dessen können sich Änderungen bei den hohen, mittleren und tiefen Grundwasserständen, Grundwasserschwankungsbreiten und dem Grundwasserdargebot ergeben. Aber nicht nur die Ressource Grundwasser wird durch die Folgen des Klimawandels betroffen. Auch die gesamte Infrastruktur – von der Förderung bis zur Verteilungsleitung zum Kunden – kann beeinträchtigt werden. Neben den direkten Einflüssen sind auch indirekte Beeinflussungen durch Kaskadeneffekte – beispielsweise ausgehend vom Energiesektor – möglich. Darum gilt es integrative, ganzheitliche und systemische Lösungen zu erarbeiten, um die Funktionalität der kritischen Infrastruktur dauerhaft auch unter Berücksichtigung der Folgen des Klimawandels gewährleisten zu können.

Beschreibung: Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht - Zentrum für Material- und Küstenforschung GmbH (HZG) (4216)

Beschreibung: Climate change impacts on groundwater use—impacts and action needs

Schlagwort(e): ddc:304.28 ; Klimawandel ; Wasserversorgung ; Kritische Infrastruktur ; Anpassung ; Climate change ; Impacts ; Water supply ; Critical infrastructure ; Adaptation

Sprache: Deutsch

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Effects of model calibration on hydrological and water resources management simulations under climate change in a semi-arid watershed (2020)

Koch, Hagen ; Silva, Ana Lígia Chaves ; Liersch, Stefan ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-16

Beschreibung: Semi-arid regions are known for erratic precipitation patterns with significant effects on the hydrological cycle and water resources availability. High temporal and spatial variation in precipitation causes large variability in runoff over short durations. Due to low soil water storage capacity, base flow is often missing and rivers fall dry for long periods. Because of its climatic characteristics, the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil is prone to droughts. To counter these, reservoirs were built to ensure water supply during dry months. This paper describes problems and solutions when calibrating and validating the eco-hydrological model SWIM for semi-arid regions on the example of the Pajeú watershed in north-eastern Brazil. The model was calibrated to river discharge data before the year 1983, with no or little effects of water management, applying a simple and an enhanced approach. Uncertainties result mainly from the meteorological data and observed river discharges. After model calibration water management was included in the simulations. Observed and simulated reservoir volumes and river discharges are compared. The calibrated and validated models were used to simulate the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and water resources management using data of two representative concentration pathways (RCP) and five earth system models (ESM). The differences in changes in natural and managed mean discharges are negligible (〈 5%) under RCP8.5 but notable (〉 5%) under RCP2.6 for the ESM ensemble mean. In semi-arid catchments, the enhanced approach should be preferred, because in addition to discharge, a second variable, here evapotranspiration, is considered for model validation.

Beschreibung: BMBF Germany

Beschreibung: BMGF Germany

Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.48 ; Pajeú watershed ; Semi-arid ; Climate change ; Water management ; Hydrology ; SWIM

Sprache: Englisch

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Navigating through the jungle of information. Informational self-efficacy predicts climate change-related media exposure, knowledge, and behaviour (2020)

Loy, Laura S. ; Hamann, Karen R. S. ; Reese, Gerhard ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-16

Beschreibung: Climate change is a complex issue and understanding it is not an easy endeavour. An abundance of information is available through media and a lot of research has dealt with the question of how to best communicate this issue to the public. However, uncertainty and scepticism remain. In this paper, we argue that the subjective capability of informing oneself satisfactorily about climate change (i.e. informational self-efficacy) to reach goals like forming an opinion, evaluating political decisions regarding climate change, or behaving in a climate protective manner might be a crucial determinant of people’s engagement with the issue. In an online survey with a quota sample of German residents (N = 498), informational self-efficacy positively predicted people’s exposure to climate change communication in the media, their knowledge about the climate system and climate protective behaviours, and the extent to which they actually engaged in climate protective actions. Moreover, informational self-efficacy positively predicted climate protective behaviour and climate system knowledge indirectly through media exposure—but not behavioural knowledge. Hence, next to optimising the provided climate change communication, we suggest to strengthen people’s confidence in dealing with it through media literacy trainings and examine the causal effect of these trainings on informational self-efficacy and climate change engagement. Furthermore, the impact of different behaviours on climate change should be more often and more concretely discussed in media coverage.

Beschreibung: Universität Koblenz-Landau (3155)

Schlagwort(e): ddc:304.28 ; Climate change ; Climate change knowledge ; Pro-environmental behaviour ; Media exposure ; Self-efficacy

Sprache: Englisch

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Identifying decision-relevant uncertainties for dynamic adaptive forest management under climate change (2020)

Radke, Naomi ; Keller, Klaus ; Yousefpour, Rasoul ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-14

Beschreibung: The decision on how to manage a forest under climate change is subject to deep and dynamic uncertainties. The classic approach to analyze this decision adopts a predefined strategy, tests its robustness to uncertainties, but neglects their dynamic nature (i.e., that decision-makers can learn and adjust the strategy). Accounting for learning through dynamic adaptive strategies (DAS) can drastically improve expected performance and robustness to deep uncertainties. The benefits of considering DAS hinge on identifying critical uncertainties and translating them to detectable signposts to signal when to change course. This study advances the DAS approach to forest management as a novel application domain by showcasing methods to identify potential signposts for adaptation on a case study of a classic European beech management strategy in South-West Germany. We analyze the strategy’s robustness to uncertainties about model forcings and parameters. We then identify uncertainties that critically impact its economic and ecological performance by confronting a forest growth model with a large sample of time-varying scenarios. The case study results illustrate the potential of designing DAS for forest management and provide insights on key uncertainties and potential signposts. Specifically, economic uncertainties are the main driver of the strategy’s robustness and impact the strategy’s performance more critically than climate uncertainty. Besides economic metrics, the forest stand’s past volume growth is a promising signpost metric. It mirrors the effect of both climatic and model parameter uncertainty. The regular forest inventory and planning cycle provides an ideal basis for adapting a strategy in response to these signposts.

Beschreibung: National Science Foundation http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/100000001

Schlagwort(e): ddc:333.7 ; Forest management ; Climate change ; Deep uncertainties ; Global sensitivity analysis ; Signposts ; Scenario discovery

Sprache: Englisch

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Are we expecting too much from the private sector in flood adaptation? Scenario-based field experiments with small- and medium-sized firms in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam (2020)

Leitold, Roxana ; Revilla Diez, Javier ; Tran, Van ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-14

Beschreibung: Adaptive governance approaches emphasize the crucial role of the private sector in enabling climate change adaptation. Yet, the participation of local firms is still lacking, and little is known about the conditions potentially influencing firms’ adaptation decisions and mechanisms that might encourage private sector engagement. We address this gap with an empirical analysis of the willingness of manufacturing small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) to participate financially in collective flood adaptation in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), a hotspot of future climate change risk. Using scenario-based field experiments, we shed light on internal and external conditions that influence potential investments in collective initiatives and explain what role SMEs can play in flood adaptation. We find that direct impacts of floods, perceived self-responsibility, and strong local ties motivate firms to participate in collective adaptation, whereas government support, sufficient financial resources, and previously implemented flood protection strategies reduce the necessity to act collectively. Here, opportunity costs and the handling of other business risks play a decisive role in investment decisions. This study shows that although private sector engagement appears to be a promising approach, it is not a panacea. Collective initiatives on flood adaptation need formal guidance and should involve local business networks and partnerships to give voice to the needs and capacities of SMEs, but such initiatives should not overstretch firms’ responsibilities.

Beschreibung: University of Economics and Law, Vietnam National University Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

Beschreibung: Bundciesministerium für Bildung und Forschung http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100002347

Schlagwort(e): ddc:304.28 ; Private sector adaptation ; Climate change ; Flood response ; Small- and medium-sized firms ; Field experiments ; Vietnam

Sprache: Englisch

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How evaluation of global hydrological models can help to improve credibility of river discharge projections under climate change (2020)

Krysanova, Valentina ; Zaherpour, Jamal ; Didovets, Iulii ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-14

Beschreibung: Importance of evaluation of global hydrological models (gHMs) before doing climate impact assessment was underlined in several studies. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the performance of six gHMs in simulating observed discharge for a set of 57 large catchments applying common metrics with thresholds for the monthly and seasonal dynamics and summarize them estimating an aggregated index of model performance for each model in each basin. One model showed a good performance, and other five showed a weak or poor performance in most of the basins. In 15 catchments, evaluation results of all models were poor. The model evaluation was supplemented by climate impact assessment for a subset of 12 representative catchments using (1) usual ensemble mean approach and (2) weighted mean approach based on model performance, and the outcomes were compared. The comparison of impacts in terms of mean monthly and mean annual discharges using two approaches has shown that in four basins, differences were negligible or small, and in eight catchments, differences in mean monthly, mean annual discharge or both were moderate to large. The spreads were notably decreased in most cases when the second method was applied. It can be concluded that for improving credibility of projections, the model evaluation and application of the weighted mean approach could be recommended, especially if the mean monthly (seasonal) impacts are of interest, whereas the ensemble mean approach could be applied for projecting the mean annual changes. The calibration of gHMs could improve their performance and, consequently, the credibility of projections.

Beschreibung: BMBF

Beschreibung: JSPS KAKENHI

Beschreibung: NSFC

Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.48 ; Climate change ; Global hydrological models ; River discharge projections ; Model evaluation ; Model performance ; Model weighting ; Credibility of projections

Sprache: Englisch

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Will dairy cattle production in West Africa be challenged by heat stress in the future? (2020)

Rahimi, Jaber ; Mutua, John Yumbya ; Notenbaert, An M. O. ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-14

Beschreibung: This study focuses on heat stress conditions for dairy cattle production in West Africa under current and future climatic conditions. After testing the accuracy of the dynamically downscaled climate datasets for simulating the historical daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and relative humidity (RH) in West Africa for 50 meteorological stations, we used the dataset for calculating the temperature-humidity index (THI), i.e., an index indicating heat stress for dairy cattle on a daily scale. Calculations were made for the historical period (1981–2010) using the ERA-Interim reanalysis dataset, and for two future periods (2021–2050 and 2071–2100) using climate predictions of the GFDL-ESM2M, HadGEM2-ES, and MPI-ESM-MR Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under the RCP4.5 emission scenario. Here, we show that during the period from 1981 to 2010 for 〉 1/5 of the region of West Africa, the frequency of severe/danger heat events per year, i.e., events that result in significant decreases in productive and reproductive performances, increased from 11 to 29–38 days (significant at 95% confidence level). Most obvious changes were observed for the eastern and southeastern parts. Under future climate conditions periods with severe/danger heat stress events will increase further as compared with the historical period by 5–22% depending on the GCM used. Moreover, the average length of periods with severe/danger heat stress is expected to increase from ~ 3 days in the historical period to ~ 4–7 days by 2021–2050 and even to up to 10 days by 2071–2100. Based on the average results of three GCMs, by 2071–2100, around 22% of dairy cattle population currently living in this area is expected to experience around 70 days more of severe/danger heat stress (compare with the historical period), especially in the southern half of West Africa. The result is alarming, as it shows that dairy production systems in West Africa are jeopardized at large scale by climate change and that depending on the GCM used, milk production might decrease by 200–400 kg/year by 2071–2100 in around 1, 7, or 11%. Our study calls for the development of improved dairy cattle production systems with higher adaptive capacity in order to deal with expected future heat stress conditions.

Beschreibung: African Union Commission

Schlagwort(e): ddc:551.6 ; THI ; Climate change ; Dairy cattle ; West Africa

Sprache: Englisch

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Depth-distribution of lake benthic diatom assemblages in relation to light availability and substrate: implications for paleolimnological studies (2020)

Hofmann, Andrea M. ; Geist, Juergen ; Nowotny, Lena ; [weitere]

Springer Netherlands

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-06-08

Beschreibung: We analyzed the depth distributions of benthic diatoms in two adjacent, but hydrologically distinct subalpine lakes (Lakes Soiernseen, S-Germany). Lake Unterer Soiernsee is affected by marked water-level fluctuations and is light-penetrated to the bottom most of the year, while Lake Oberer Soiernsee provides more stable conditions and an extended aphotic zone. Mixed samples of epiphytic, epilithic, epipsammic and epipelic periphyton were taken in one-meter depth steps by scuba divers. Most of the common benthic diatoms occurred in distinct depth-areas. RDA analyses showed that depth was strongly correlated with species distribution in both lakes. Depth-constrained cluster analyses indicated three distinct diatom community zones in each lake. A shallow littoral zone hosting mainly epiphytic and epilithic species and a deeper littoral zone with mainly epipsammic and epipelic taxa existed in both lakes. Additionally, a highly disturbed near-shore littoral zone with diatoms adapted to unstable conditions (aerophilic taxa, pioneer species) was found in Lake Unterer Soiernsee, and a deep-water pelagic zone with mainly planktonic taxa in Lake Oberer Soiernsee. Light availability, substrate, physical stressors and nutrient concentrations were linked closely with water depth. While light availability affected the ratio of benthic and planktonic diatoms, substrate type influenced benthic diatom assemblage structures. Diatoms occurring in surficial sediments of the aphotic zone represent an ideal cross-section of the recent diatom assemblage of the lake, including benthic and planktonic species. However, sediment samples taken in light-flooded depths are inappropriate for studies based on shifts between benthic and planktonic taxa, because in situ benthic species dominate the surface-sediment assemblages, while settled tychoplanktonic and planktonic species occur less frequently. A diatom-inferred depth model was created for each lake to prove the usability for down-core studies using weighted-averaging approaches. For both lakes these models are highly appropriate to reconstruct past fluctuations in water-transparency or lake-level. With regard to the development of diatom-based TP-transfer-functions for Bavarian mountain lakes, we found it is highly important to consider lake depth and transparency. Based on the findings of this study we recommend the creation of two different training-sets, one for deep or low-transparency lakes with an aphotic zone including both benthic and planktonic diatoms, and another one for shallow, clear water lakes solely using benthic diatoms.

Schlagwort(e): ddc:561 ; Climate change ; Subalpine lakes ; Water-level fluctuations ; Diatom community zones ; TP-transfer function ; B/P ratio

Sprache: Englisch

Materialart: doc-type:article

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Return to rapid ice loss in Greenland and record loss in 2019 detected by the GRACE-FO satellites (2020)

Sasgen, Ingo ; Wouters, Bert ; Gardner, Alex S. ; [weitere]

Nature Publishing Group UK

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Publikationsdatum: 2023-11-16

Beschreibung: Between 2003-2016, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) was one of the largest contributors to sea level rise, as it lost about 255 Gt of ice per year. This mass loss slowed in 2017 and 2018 to about 100 Gt yr〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉. Here we examine further changes in rate of GrIS mass loss, by analyzing data from the GRACE-FO (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment – Follow On) satellite mission, launched in May 2018. Using simulations with regional climate models we show that the mass losses observed in 2017 and 2018 by the GRACE and GRACE-FO missions are lower than in any other two year period between 2003 and 2019, the combined period of the two missions. We find that this reduced ice loss results from two anomalous cold summers in western Greenland, compounded by snow-rich autumn and winter conditions in the east. For 2019, GRACE-FO reveals a return to high melt rates leading to a mass loss of 223 ± 12 Gt month〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉 during the month of July alone, and a record annual mass loss of 532 ± 58 Gt yr〈sup〉−1〈/sup〉.

Beschreibung: Mass loss from the Greenland ice sheet returned to record levels in 2019, following unusually small loss in 2017-18, according to an analysis of satellite data from GRACE and its follow-on mission GRACE-FO.

Beschreibung: Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (Alfred-Wegener- Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research) https://doi.org/10.13039/501100003207

Beschreibung: Helmholtz Association https://doi.org/10.13039/501100009318

Beschreibung: http://geoweb.princeton.edu/people/simons/software.html

Schlagwort(e): ddc:551 ; Climate change ; Cryospheric science ; Greenland ; ice loss

Sprache: Englisch

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