ALBERT

Description: A multi-model set of atmospheric simulations forced by historical sea surface temperature (SST) or SSTs plus Greenhouse gases and aerosol forcing agents for the period of 1950–1999 is studied to identify and understand which components of the Asian–Australian monsoon (A–AM) variability are forced and reproducible. The analysis focuses on the summertime monsoon circulations, comparing model results against the observations. The priority of different components of the A–AM circulations in terms of reproducibility is evaluated. Among the subsystems of the wide A–AM, the South Asian monsoon and the Australian monsoon circulations are better reproduced than the others, indicating they are forced and well modeled. The primary driving mechanism comes from the tropical Pacific. The western North Pacific monsoon circulation is also forced and well modeled except with a slightly lower reproducibility due to its delayed response to the eastern tropical Pacific forcing. The simultaneous driving comes from the western Pacific surrounding the maritime continent region. The Indian monsoon circulation has a moderate reproducibility, partly due to its weakened connection to June–July–August SSTs in the equatorial eastern Pacific in recent decades. Among the A–AM subsystems, the East Asian summer monsoon has the lowest reproducibility and is poorly modeled. This is mainly due to the failure of specifying historical SST in capturing the zonal land-sea thermal contrast change across the East Asia. The prescribed tropical Indian Ocean SST changes partly reproduce the meridional wind change over East Asia in several models. For all the A–AM subsystem circulation indices, generally the MME is always the best except for the Indian monsoon and East Asian monsoon circulation indices.

Description: Published

Description: 1051-1068

Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: Increased atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration provided warmer atmospheric temperature and higher atmospheric water vapor content, but not necessarily more precipitation. A set of experiments performed with a state-of-the-art coupled general circulation model forced with increased atmospheric CO2 concentration (2, 4 and 16 times the present-day mean value) were analyzed and compared with a control experiment to evaluate the effect of increased CO2 levels on monsoons. Generally, the monsoon precipitation responses to CO2 forcing are largest if extreme concentrations of carbon dioxide are used, but they are not necessarly proportional to the forcing applied. In fact, despite a common response in terms of an atmospheric water vapor increase to the atmospheric warming, two out of the six monsoons studied simulate less or equal summer mean precipitation in the 16xCO2 experiment compared to the intermediate sensitivity experiments. The precipitation differences between CO2 sensitivity experiments and CTRL have been investigated specifying the contribution of thermodynamic and purely dynamic processes. As a general rule, the differences depending on the atmospheric moisture content changes (thermodynamic component) are large and positive, and they tend to be damped by the dynamic component associated with the changes in the vertical velocity. However, differences are observed among monsoons in terms of the role played by other terms (like moisture advection and evaporation) in shaping the precipitation changes in warmer climates. The precipitation increase, even if weak, occurs despite a weakening of the mean circulation in the monsoon regions(‘‘precipitation-wind paradox’’). In particular, the tropical east-west Walker circulation is reduced, as found from velocity potential analysis. The meridional component of the monsoon circulation is changed as well, with larger (smaller) meridional (vertical) scales.

Description: In press

Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: In this chapter, a review is given of progress to date on an intercomparison project designed to compare and evaluate the ability of climate models to generate tropical cyclones, the Tropical Cyclone climate Model Intercomparison Project(TC-MIP). Like other intercomparison projects, this project aims to evaluate climate models using common metrics in order to make suggestions regarding future development of such models.

Description: Published

Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano

Description: restricted

Description: This study investigates the possible changes that the greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of the tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using scenario climate simulations carried out with a fully coupled high-resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the 20th Century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC occurrence with the large scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of the TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical North West Pacific (NWP) and North Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with a reduced amount of convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. Despite the overall warming of the tropical upper ocean and the expansion of warm SSTs to the subtropics and mid-latitudes, the action of the TCs remains well confined to the tropical region and the peak of TC number remains equatorward of 20° latitude in both Hemispheres. An extended version of this work is in available on Journal of Climate (Gualdi et al.,2008 - DOI:10.1175/2008JCLI1921.1)

Description: Published

Description: 287-321

Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano

Description: open

Description: We describe the mineralogy, geochemistry, and mesomicrostructure of fresh subvolcanic blocks erupted during the 5 April 2003 paroxysm of Stromboli (Aeolian Islands, Italy). These blocks represent ∼50 vol.% of the total erupted ejecta and consist of fine- to medium-grained basaltic lithotypes ranging from relatively homogeneous dolerites to strongly or poorly welded magmatic breccias. The breccia components are represented by angular fragments of dolerites entrapped in a matrix of vesiculated (lava-like to scoriae) crystal-rich (CR) basalt. All of the studied blocks are cognates with the CR basalt of the normal Strombolian activity or lavas and they are often coated by a few-centimeter thick layer of crystal-poor (CP) basaltic pumice erupted during the paroxysm. We suggest that they result from the rapid increase of pressure and related subvolcanic rock failure that occurred shortly before the 5 April 2003 explosion, when the uppermost portion of the edifice inflated and suffered brecciation as the result of the sudden rise of the gas-rich CP basalt that triggered the eruption. Dolerites and magmatic matrix of the breccias show major and trace element compositions that match those of the CR basalts erupted during normal Strombolian activity and effusive events at Stromboli volcano. Dolerites consist of (a) phenocrysts normally found in the CR basalts and (b) late-stage magmatic minerals such as sanidine, An60-28 plagioclase, Fe–Mn-rich olivines (Fo68-48), phlogopite, apatite, and opaque mineral pairs (magnetite and ilmenite), most of which are never found both in lava flows and scoriae erupted during the persistent explosive activity that characterizes typical Strombolian behavior. Subvolcanic crystallization of the Stromboli CR magma, leading to slowly cooled equivalents of basalts, could result from transient drainage of the magma from the summit craters to lower levels. Fingering and engulfing of the material that collapsed from the summit crater floor into the shallow basaltic system during the late evening of 28 December 2002 coupled with the short break in the summit persistent explosions between December 2002 and March 2003 permitted the CR magma pockets to solidify as dolerites, which were confined to the uppermost portion of the system and thus not involved in the ongoing flank effusive activity. Crystal size distribution of the basaltic blocks and crystallization of the finer-grained (〈0.1 mm) mafic minerals of the dolerites over a time interval of ∼100 days closely agrees with the above interpretation. Vesicle filling (miarolitic cavities) locally found in some dolerites, with minerals deposited as vapor-phase crystallization is a result of continuous gas percolation through the rocks of the uppermost portion of the volcanic system. Poorly welded magmatic breccias formed during syn-eruptive processes of 5 April 2003, when the paroxysm strongly shattered the shallow subvolcanic system and many dolerite fragments were entrapped in the CR magma. In contrast, the high degree of welding between the dolerite clasts and the CR basaltic matrix in the strongly welded magmatic breccias provides a snapshot of subvolcanic intrusions of the CR basalt into the dolerite when, after a 2-month break in activity, CR magmas started to rise again to the summit craters. Blocks similar to these subvolcanic ejecta of 5 April 2003 were also erupted during previous paroxysms (e.g., 1930) suggesting that changes in the usual Strombolian activity (e.g., short breaks in the persistent mild explosions and/or flank effusive activity) lead to transient crystallization of dolerites in the shallow plumbing system.

Description: Published

Description: 795-813

Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: reserved

Description: On 30 December 2002, a 25-30 × 106 m3 landslide on the NW flank of Stromboli volcano produced a tsunami that caused relevant damage to the Stromboli village and to the neighboring islands of the Aeolian archipelago. The NW flank of Stromboli has been the site of several, cubic kilometer-scale, landslides during the past 13 ka. In this paper we present sedimentological and compositional data of deep-sea cores recovered from a site located about 24 km north of the island. Our preliminary results indicate that: (i) turbidity currents were effectively generated by the large-scale failures and (ii) volcanogenic turbidity current deposits retain clues of the landslide source and slope failure dynamics. By analogy with Hawaii and the Canary islands we confirm that deep-sea sediments can be effectively used to assess the age and scale of past landslide events giving an important contribution to the tsunami hazard assessment of this region.

Description: Unpublished

Description: -

Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi

Description: 4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica

Description: reserved

Description: A multidisciplinary geological and compositional investigation allowed us to reconstruct the occurrence of flank eruptions on the lower NE flank of Stromboli volcano since 15 ka. The oldest flank eruption recognised is Roisa, which occurred at ~15 ka during the Vancori period, and has transitional compositional characteristics between the Vancori and Neostromboli phases. Roisa was followed by the San Vincenzo eruption that took place at ~12 ka during the early stage of Neostromboli period. The eruptive fissure of San Vincenzo gave rise to a large scoria cone located below the village of Stromboli, and generated a lava flow, most of which lies below sea level. Most of the flank eruptions outside the barren Sciara del Fuoco occurred in a short time, between ~9 and 7 ka during the Neostromboli period, when six eruptive events produced scoria cones, spatter ramparts and lava flows. The Neostromboli products belong to a potassic series (KS), and cluster in two differently evolved groups. After an eruptive pause of ~5,000 years, the most recent flank eruption involving the NE sector of the island occurred during the Recent Stromboli period with the formation of the large, highly K calc-alkaline lava flow field, named San Bartolo. The trend of eruptive fissures since 15 ka ranges from N30°E to N55°E, and corresponds to the magma intrusions radiating from the main feeding system of the volcano.

Description: The mapping of Stromboli was supported by a grant to S. Calvari (Project V2/01, 2005–2007, funded by the Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia and by the Italian Civil Protection). This work was partly supported by INGV through a research grant financed by MIUR-FIRB to G. Norini. We wish to thank the former Director of INGV-Sezione di Catania, A. Bonaccorso, for making additional funds available for field trip and datings.

Description: In press

Description: 3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi

Description: JCR Journal

Description: restricted

Description: Understanding the historical and future response of the global climate system to anthropogenic emissions of radiatively active atmospheric constituents has become a timely and compelling concern. At present, however, there are uncertainties in: the total radiative forcing associated with changes in the chemical composition of the atmosphere; the effective forcing applied to the climate system resulting from a (temporary) reduction via ocean-heat uptake; and the strength of the climate feedbacks that subsequently modify this forcing. Here a set of analyses derived from atmospheric general circulation model simulations are used to estimate the effective and total radiative forcing of the observed climate system due to anthropogenic emissions over the last 50 years of the twentieth century. They are also used to estimate the sensitivity of the observed climate system to these emissions, as well as the expected change in global surface temperatures once the climate system returns to radiative equilibrium. Results indicate that estimates of the effective radiative forcing and total radiative forcing associated with historical anthropogenic emissions differ across models. In addition estimates of the historical sensitivity of the climate to these emissions differ across models. However, results suggest that the variations in climate sensitivity and total climate forcing are not independent, and that the two vary inversely with respect to one another. As such, expected equilibrium temperature changes, which are given by the product of the total radiative forcing and the climate sensitivity, are relatively constant between models, particularly in comparison to results in which the total radiative forcing is assumed constant. Implications of these results for projected future climate forcings and subsequent responses are also discussed.

Description: Published

Description: 1461-1475

Description: 3.7. Dinamica del clima e dell'oceano

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open