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  • ddc:330  (154,796)
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  • 1
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    Leiden: Brill | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2019-02-14
    Description: The Gnassingbé clan has ruled the country since 1967. The demand for political alternance, initiated by institutional and electoral reforms, constituted the major contentious issue between the government and the challengers of the Gnassingbé regime throughout the survey period. An alliance of opposition parties and civil society groups organized peaceful demonstrations in opposition to the regime, which were often violently suppressed. Civil society organizations and representatives of the Christian church supported the demands of the opposition. The legislative elections of 20 December 2018, boycotted by the major opposition parties, resulted in an easy victory of the ruling party. The local elections, crucial for democratization at the grass-roots, but postponed time and again since 1987, were again postponed in December 2018 sine die. The human rights record of the government has improved but remains poor. Despite undeniable improvements to the framework and appearance of the regime's key institutions during the review period, democracy remains far from complete. However, the international community, notably Togo’s African peers, the AU and ECOWAS, followed a ‘laissez-faire’ approach in the interests of regional stability and their national interests in dealing with Togo. Economic growth remained stable at about 5% per annum. Public investment in infrastructure (e.g. roads, harbour) and increases in agricultural productivity, notably of export crops, had been the key drivers of economic growth. However, growth remains vulnerable to external shocks and the climate and has not been inclusive. Positive growth was overshadowed by increasing inter-personal and regional inequality as well as an increase in extreme poverty. Moreover, money-laundering, illegal money transfers and trafficking grew alarmingly. The business climate improved considerably nevertheless.
    Description: Author’s extended and up-dated version of ‘BTI 2020 – Togo Country Report’ (forthcoming)
    Description: RÉSUMÉ: Le clan Gnassingbé dirige le pays depuis 1967. La demande d'alternance politique, initiée par des réformes institutionnelles et électorales, a constitué le principal différend entre le gouvernement et les rivaux du régime de Gnassingbé tout au long de la période d'enquête. Une alliance de partis d'opposition et de groupes de la société civile a organisé des manifestations pacifiques contre le régime, qui ont souvent été réprimées avec violence. Les organisations de la société civile et les représentants de l'église chrétienne ont soutenu les revendications de l'opposition. Les élections législatives du 20 décembre 2018, boycottées par les principaux partis de l'opposition, ont permis une victoire facile du parti au pouvoir. Les élections locales, cruciales pour la démocratisation à la base, mais reportées à plusieurs reprises depuis 1987, ont été à nouveau reportées en décembre 2018 sine die. Le bilan du gouvernement en matière de droits de l'homme s'est amélioré mais reste médiocre. Malgré des améliorations indéniables du cadre et de l’apparence des principales institutions du régime au cours de la période considérée, la démocratie est loin d’être achevée. Cependant, la communauté internationale, notamment ses homologues africains du Togo, l’UA et la CEDEAO, a adopté une approche de «laisser-faire» dans l’intérêt de la stabilité régionale et de leurs intérêts nationaux face au Togo. La croissance économique est restée stable à environ 5% par an. Les investissements publics dans les infrastructures (par exemple, les routes et les ports) et l’augmentation de la productivité agricole, notamment des cultures d’exportation, ont été les principaux moteurs de la croissance économique. Cependant, la croissance reste vulnérable aux chocs extérieurs et au climat et n’a pas été inclusive. La croissance positive a été éclipsée par l'augmentation des inégalités interpersonnelles et régionales ainsi que par l'augmentation de l'extrême pauvreté. En outre, le blanchiment d’argent, les transferts d’argent illégal et le trafic se sont multipliés de manière alarmante. Le climat des affaires s’est néanmoins considérablement amélioré. ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ZUSAMMENFASSUNG: Der Gnassingbé-Clan hat das Land seit 1967 regiert. Die Forderungen nach institutionellen und Wahlrechtreformen sowie nach politischem Wandel bildeten während des Erhebungszeitraums das umstrittenste Thema zwischen der Regierung und den Herausforderern des Gnassingbé-Regimes. Ein Bündnis von Oppositionsparteien und zivilgesellschaftlichen Gruppen organisierte friedliche Demonstrationen gegen das Regime, die oft gewaltsam unterdrückt wurden. Zivilgesellschaftliche Organisationen und Vertreter der christlichen Kirche unterstützten die Forderungen der Opposition. Die Parlamentswahlen vom 20. Dezember 2018, die von den großen Oppositionsparteien boykottiert wurden, führten zu einem leichten Sieg der Regierungspartei. Die für die Demokratisierung an der Basis entscheidenden Kommunalwahlen, die seit 1987 immer wieder verschoben wurden, wurden im Dezember 2018 erneut auf unbestimmte Zeit verschoben. Die Menschenrechtsbilanz der Regierung hat sich verbessert, ist aber nach wie vor schlecht. Trotz unbestreitbarer Verbesserungen der Rahmenbedingungen und des Erscheinungsbildes der wichtigsten Institutionen des Regimes im Überprüfungszeitraum ist die Demokratisierung bei weitem nicht vollständig. Die internationale Gemeinschaft, insbesondere die afrikanischen peers des togosichen Präsidenten, die AU und die ECOWAS, verfolgten jedoch einen "Laissez-faire" -Ansatz im Interesse der regionalen Stabilität und ihrer nationalen Interessen im Umgang mit Togo. Das Wirtschaftswachstum blieb stabil bei etwa 5% pro Jahr. Öffentliche Investitionen in die Infrastruktur (z. B. Straßen, Häfen) und die Steigerung der landwirtschaftlichen Produktivität, insbesondere von Exportkulturen, waren die Hauptfaktoren des Wirtschaftswachstums. Das Wachstum bleibt jedoch anfällig für externe Schocks und das Wachstum war nicht inklusiv. Das positive Wachstum wurde durch die zunehmende Ungleichheit zwischen Personen und Regionen sowie durch die Zunahme extremer Armut überschattet. Darüber hinaus nahmen Geldwäsche, illegale Geldüberweisungen und Menschenhandel alarmierend zu. Das Geschäftsklima hat sich dennoch deutlich verbessert.
    Keywords: A14 ; F35 ; N97 ; O17 ; O55 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; Togo ; West Africa ; ECOWAS ; WAEMU ; Democratization ; Good Governance
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    London: Taylor and Francis | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2019-01-29
    Description: We introduce progressive consumption taxation into a real-business-cycle setup augmented with a detailed government sector. We calibrate the model to Bulgarian data for the period following the introduction of the currency board arrangement (1999-2016). We investigate the quantitative importance of the presence of of progressive taxation of consumption expenditures for the stabilization of cyclical fluctuations in Bulgaria. We find the quantitative effect of such a tax to be very small, and thus not important for either business cycle stabilization, or public finance issues.
    Keywords: E24 ; E32 ; ddc:330 ; business cycles ; progressive consumption taxation ; Bulgaria
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Brussels: The Economics and Econometrics Research Institute | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2019-01-29
    Description: We show that in a exogenous growth model with non-market ("home") sector calibrated to Bulgarian data under the progressive taxation regime (1993-2007), the economy exhibits equilibrium indeterminacy due to the presence of non-market production. These results are in line with the findings in Benhabib and Farmer (1994, 1996) and Farmer (1999). Also, the findings in this paper are in contrast to Guo and Lansing (1988) who argue that progressive taxation works as an automatic stabilizer. Under the flat tax regime (2008-16), the economy calibrated to Bulgarian data displays saddle-path stability. The decrease in the average effective tax rate addresses the indeterminacy issue and eliminates the "stable focus" dynamics.
    Keywords: J46 ; D91 ; O41 ; ddc:330 ; Progressive taxation ; Non-market sector ; Home production ; Equilibrium (In)determinacy
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Freiburg i. Br.: Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Institut für Allgemeine Wirtschaftsforschung, Abteilung für Wirtschaftspolitik und Ordnungsökonomik
    Publication Date: 2019-01-29
    Description: [Einleitende Bemerkungen] Eine Reform der Grundsteuer ist unabweisbar geworden. Dies ist nicht dem politischen Willen von Bund oder Ländern geschuldet, sondern geht auf das Urteil des Bundesverfassungsgerichts vom 10. April 2018 zurück, wonach die Einheitsbewertung zur Ermittlung der Bemessungsgrundlage der Grundsteuer jedenfalls seit dem 1. Januar 2002 unvereinbar mit Art. 3 Abs. 1 Grundgesetz und somit verfassungswidrig ist. Diese Entscheidung war spätestens seit dem Jahr 2010 absehbar, als der Bundesfinanzhof feststellte, dass „[…] das weitere Unterbleiben einer allgemeinen Neubewertung des Grundvermögens […]“ für Stichtage nach dem 1.1.2007 mit der Verfassung nicht vereinbar ist (Pressemitteilung BFH vom 11. August 2010). Der Wissenschaftliche Beirat beim Bundesfinanzministerium legte im Dezember 2010 eine Stellungnahme zur Grundsteuerreform vor, die Möglichkeiten zu einer Neubewertung der Immobilien in Deutschland mit einigermaßen vertretbarem administrativem Aufwand aufzeigte. Gleichwohl haben Bund und Länder die vergangenen acht Jahre nicht für eine Reform nutzen können. Insbesondere unter den Ländern bestand keine Einigkeit, ob ein wertbasiertes Modell oder ein reines Flächenmodell zur Ermittlung der Bemessungsgrundlage der Grundsteuer herangezogen werden sollte. Diese Frontstellung besteht zwischen den beiden Lagern fort. Nur bleibt nun leider wenig Zeit, eine Reform der Grundsteuer auf den Weg zu bringen. Bis zum Ende des Jahres 2019 muss der Gesetzgeber die Grundsteuer reformiert haben und ein neues Bewertungsgesetz verabschiedet haben. Danach hat der Gesetzgeber fünf Jahre Zeit, also bis zum 31. Dezember 2024, die neuen Bewertungsregeln anzuwenden. Diese Frist ist für eine Bewertung aller Immobilien in Deutschland relativ kurz. Das Bundesfinanzministerium hat mittlerweile seine Vorschläge für eine Grundsteuerreform unterbreitet. Darin sind zwei Modelle enthalten, ein wertunabhängiges, flächenbasiertes Modell und ein wertabhängiges Modell, in das Boden- und Gebäudewertcharakteristika einfließen. Das Bundesfinanzministerium favorisiert sein wertabhängiges Grundsteuermodell. Vor diesem Hintergrund, und weil die Zeit drängt, spitzt sich die Debatte derzeit weiter zu. In diesem Beitrag soll daher das Für und Wider der unterschiedlichen Modelle beleuchtet werden. Zudem werden Weiterungen der Reform, insbesondere die Möglichkeit der formalen Überwälzung der Grundsteuer auf den Mieter diskutiert.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 5
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    Leiden: Brill | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2019-01-29
    Description: Recognizing that identities are not static but instead forged in social interactions, this article explores how interplays of similarity and difference can stimulate identity development in organizations. Artistic interventions in organizations are conceived as opening spaces for interactions in which intercultural contention can stimulate identity development at the individual and organizational levels. The contribution draws on data generated from Webbased surveys of employees, managers, and artists who participated in artistic interventions in small and medium sized companies in Spain. Several tensions between their culturally distinct worlds emerge as drivers of a process in which the participants engage in identity development characterized by double-mirroring, coevolution, and resonance.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; artistic interventions ; identity development ; intercultural interactions ; creative processes ; discursive perspective ; lexical analysis
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: Das Urheberrecht soll allgemein einen Anreiz zur Schöpfung von Werken der Literatur, Kunst und Wissenschaft schaffen. Was aber, wenn der Künstler oder Autor eine Maschine ist? Im Zeitalter der Künstlichen Intelligenz (KI) schon lange keine Utopie mehr. Aus ökonomischer Sicht gibt es gute Gründe, warum keine Maschine Urheber sein kann und sollte. Nichtsdestotrotz stellt sich die Frage, ob es im KI-Kontext Handlungsbedarf in Form eines digitalen Updates des Urheberrechts oder ergänzender Rechtsnormen gibt.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 7
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: Im vergangenen Jahr verhinderte die Bundesregierung zwei Transaktionen chinesischer Investoren und verschärfte nach 2017 im zweiten Jahr in Folge die Außenwirtschaftsverordnung. Dennoch waren Investoren aus China weiterhin sehr aktiv.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 8
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: Ausschlaggebend für den starken Anstieg der Kinderzahlen waren eine steigende Zahl an potenziellen Müttern, mehr Geburten je potenzieller Mütter und eine substanzielle Zuwanderung von Kindern. Dadurch werden in den nächsten Jahren zusätzliche Kapazitäten in den Kitas und Grundschulen notwendig, auch wenn sich die Entwicklungen nicht fortsetzen sollten.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 9
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: In the shadow of homeownership and public housing, social policy through the regulation of private rental markets is a neglected and underestimated field of social policy. This paper, therefore, presents unique new data on the development of private tenancy legislation through the binary coding of rent control, the protection of tenants from eviction, and rental housing rationing laws across more than 25 countries and 100 years. This long-run perspective reveals the dynamic effects of rent control on the rise of homeownership as the dominant tenure during the 20th century. We find that both rent regulation and rationing legislation effectively increased homeownership, but only up to a certain threshold. We suggest that the short-term lure of an inexpensive social policy for tenants has led to the long-term marginalization of rental markets in many countries.
    Keywords: C23 ; O18 ; R38 ; ddc:330 ; homeownership ; rent control ; tenure security ; housing rationing ; dynamic panel data model
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: This review summarizes the empirical literature on the effects of natural disasters and weather variations on international trade flows. A first result is that the body of literature is actually not as small as previously suggested. In total, I summarize 19 studies of 18 independent research teams and show that there is a large diversity in terms of motivations, data sets used, methodologies, and results. Still, some overarching conclusions can be drawn. Increases in average temperature seem to have a detrimental effect on export values (less on imports), mainly for manufactured and agricultural products. Given climate change, this is an important finding for projecting long-term developments of trade volumes. Imports seem to be less affected by temperature changes in the importing country. Findings on the effects of natural disasters are more ambiguous, but at least it can be said that exports seem to be affected negatively by occurrence and severity of disasters in the exporting country. Imports may decrease, increase, or remain unaffected by natural disasters. Regarding heterogeneous effects, small, poor, and hot countries with low degrees of institutional quality and political freedom seem to face the most detrimental effects on their trade flows. Possible directions of future research include analyzing spillover effects in-depth (in terms of time, space, and trade networks), considering adaptation, and using more granular data.
    Keywords: Q17 ; Q54 ; Q56 ; F14 ; F18 ; ddc:330 ; International Trade ; Climate Change ; Natural Disasters
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 11
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    Freiburg: Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg, Wilfried-Guth-Stiftungsprofessur für Ordnungs- und Wettbewerbspolitik
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: In recent years, a number of major terrorist attacks in EU member states has put the fight against homegrown and international terrorism at the top of the agenda of European policy-makers. This paper analyzes the costs of terrorism in the European Union from both a theoretical and empirical perspective in order to evaluate counter-terrorism policies by comparing their costs and benefits. Two important policy implications can be derived from our exercise. First, individuals' behavioral predispositions typically result in a biased perception of the risk of terrorism leading to too high a demand for counter-terrorism measures relative to what the objective probability of terrorist events suggests. This results in a tendency to favor repressive over preventive measures against terrorism. Second, uncoordinated European policies against terrorism have the potential to undermine the effectiveness of counter-terrorism measures. If there is a justification for the existence of the European Union (which an increasing number of populist parties in Europe seems to doubt), then it is to provide supranational answers to coordination failure in European counter-terrorism policies.
    Keywords: D74 ; H56 ; N44 ; ddc:330 ; terrorism ; home-grown terrorism ; European Union ; counter-terrorism policies ; coordination failure ; behavioral responses to terrorism
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 12
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    Wuppertal : Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: Mit fortschreitender Energiewende steigt der Anteil erneuerbarer Energien im Strommix. Deren Angebot variiert im Tagesverlauf, nach Wetterlage und saisonal. Um Angebot und Nachfrage zur Deckung zu bringen, benötigt es daher Speicher mit großen Kapazitäten. Von allen technologischen Optionen mit großer Speicherkapazität sind Wasser-Pumpspeicherwerke die einzige, die langjährig erprobt und wirtschaftlich ist. Diese könnten in Braunkohletagebauen, welche im Zuge der Energiewende aufgegeben werden, errichtet werden. Unsere Überschlagsrechnung am Beispiel eines Pumpspeicherwerks in den heutigen Tagebauen Hambach, Garzweiler und Inden zeigt, dass diese mit bis zu 400 GWh ein signifikantes technisches Speicherpotenzial haben. Dies entspricht etwa der kontinuierlichen Maximalleistung eines Kernkraftwerks über zwei Wochen. Im Kontext der Diskussion um den Braunkohleausstieg skizziert das Papier ein netzdienliches Nachnutzungskonzept für Braunkohletagebaue, das zumindest für einen Teil der heute in der Kohleförderung und -Verstromung Beschäftigten mögliche Zukunftsperspektiven bietet.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: Wuppertal Institut für Klima, Umwelt, Energie
    Language: German
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  • 13
    Publication Date: 2019-01-31
    Description: With Germany's nuclear phase-out, 23 reactors need to be dismantled in the near future. Initiated by the dire financial situation of the affected utilities in 2014, a major discourse on ensuring financial liability led to a redistribution of liabilities and finances, with the utilities remaining in charge of dismantling, while liability for interim and final storage now transferred to the public. This paper assesses whether the new regulation will ultimately be to the benefit of the public. It introduces a two-stage stochastic optimization framework which encompasses the different dismantling phases and resulting waste flows and storage levels of low- and intermediate-level waste (LLW and ILW) as well as the associated costs. Results show that storage risk - proclaimed as a major barrier to efficient decommissioning - is not a major driver for the optimal decommissioning schedule. However, a delay of ten years might now increase interim storage costs borne by the public by over 20%. By contrast, lacking knowledge and limited machinery is a major unaccounted cost driver, which might quickly eat-up the buffer currently included in utility funds in order to deal with dismantling uncertainties. Our analysis reveals the storage gate as the new crucial interface between utilities and the public storage provider.
    Keywords: C61 ; H44 ; L51 ; ddc:330 ; nuclear decommissioning ; nuclear dismantling ; financial liability ; nuclear logistics ; stochastic modeling ; regulation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 14
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Die professionalisierte, kontinuierliche Vermietung von Wohnraum über Homesharing-Plattformen wie Airbnb kann dem Markt Wohnraum entziehen und lokal existierende Wohnraum-knappheit verschärfen. Regelungen zur Steuerung der Vermietungstätigkeit wie Zweckentfremdungsverbote sollen dem entgegenwirken. In Nordrhein-Westfalen lässt sich jedoch kein empirischer Beleg für umfangreichen Wohnraumentzug durch Airbnb feststellen.
    Description: A professional, continuous short-term letting of accommodation via home sharing platforms like Airbnb can lead to a reduction of housing space and therefore intensify housing shortages. Regulation like the ban of an exclusive use of apartments or houses for short-term accommodation (so-called ban on misuse or Zweckentfremdungsverbot) are supposed to prevent or to mitigate such developments. In the German federal state of North Rhine-Westphalia however, no empirical evidence for such reductions of housing space due to home sharing via Airbnb can be found.
    Keywords: D52 ; L14 ; L51 ; L86 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 15
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Despite the headway the world has experienced over the last couple of years in terms of a substantial increase in digital access, there are still significant challenges to overcome in ensuring women are included in the transformation to a digital society, which in turn will enhance productivity and social development. Efforts to increase internet adoption access through broadband plans and legislative reforms have yielded improvements in use and adoption. However, there is still a stark and pervasive gender inequality in terms of access, ownership of digital devices, digital fluency as well as the capacity to make meaningful use of the access to technology. Even though affordability is a key source of exclusion, there are also significant socio-cultural norms that restrict access for women. This paper brings forward the argument that access alone is not enough, women need agency and capacity to leverage access. The authors thus highlight the need to make an assessment of the global gender gap and develop meaningful indicators that contribute to the design and implementation of effective policies that drive adoption. We need effective promotion of women's digital adoption not only from the government but also from the private sector and civil society in order to lead the digital adoption of best practices for women around the world.
    Keywords: J16 ; J24 ; O30 ; ddc:330 ; digital gender gap ; digital inclusion ; digital skills
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: The introduction of a Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) in the European Union (EU) would substantially change the rules of the game in international taxation. According to the proposal by the European Commission (EC), the profits of a Multinational Enterprise (MNE) would no longer be assessed by using the arm's length principles and (hypothetical) market prices, but split based on a formulary apportionment. This implies that an allocation key consisting of sales volume, number of employees and capital invested would be applied to distribute the taxable profits of an MNE. From an economic perspective, the principle of taxing profits at source would be thereby abolished. However, due to the current difficulty for taxpayers and tax authorities to agree on adequate transfer prices, a radical change as proposed by the EC might be reasonable. Hence, the EC proposal for the CCCTB is a promising goal as it could lower the red tape burden for MNE as well as tax authorities. Furthermore, the adjustment of the debt bias and the encouragement of R&D as additional items of the EC proposal could stimulate economic growth. A main obstacle for the implementation of a CCCTB would be the expected shifts in tax revenue which make a political agreement at the EU level very difficult. The application of a CCCTB would substantially redistribute corporate profits among the EU member states as a simulation by the German Economic Institute (IW) shows. Especially, Ireland, Luxembourg and Malta would receive significantly less tax revenue since sales volume, number of employees and capital invested are relatively small in these countries. France and Italy, in contrast, would be on the winning side. Germany would also benefit even though to a rather low degree. A main reason for this result is that the strongly exporting German corporations today pay a large proportion of their corporate taxes in Germany. With the application of the CCCTB, parts of the taxable profits would be allocated to foreign countries. From a systematic point of view, the CCCTB is only convincing if there is a global commitment. A simulation of the tax revenue effects for the G20 countries when applying a CCCTB shows that the shift would also be drastic. The EU member states - even the big ones - would have to accept lower taxable corporate profits. Instead, the United States could increase the corporate tax base mainly because of the high consumption level. China and India would benefit due to the large number of employees. Thus, whether a country ranks among the winners or losers in terms of tax revenue depends foremost on the peer group.
    Keywords: H25 ; H26 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: European integration is increasingly contested in public. What are the policy consequences of this EU politicization? This article argues that politicization challenges the hitherto often technocratic mode of policy preparation in the European Commission. Increased public attention and contestation render the diffuse public a more relevant stakeholder for Europe’s central agenda-setter because future competence transfers to Brussels are more likely to be scrutinized in the public realm. This incentivizes Commission actors to generate widely dispersed regulatory benefits through its policy initiatives, particularly where an initiative covers publicly salient issues. Applying this expectation to 17 European consumer policy initiatives suggests that the Commission orients its policy proposals towards wide-spread consumer interest during periods of high EU politicization and issue salience. However, the mechanism is constrained by internal turf conflicts and anticipated Council preferences. These findings highlight that politicization entails both chances and risks for further, policy-driven integration in Europe.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; consumer policy ; European Commission ; European integration ; politicization ; responsiveness ; salience
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 18
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: A correlation curve is introduced as a tool to study the degree of intergenerational income mobility, i.e. how income status is related between parents and adult child. The method overcomes the shortcomings of the elasticity of children's income with respect to parents' income (i.e. its sensitiveness to different dispersion among the generations) and the correlation coefficient (i.e. its inability to capture nonlinearities). The method is particularly suitable for comparative studies and in this study labour earnings are compared to disposable income. The correlation between the parental income and the child's adult disposable income becomes stronger for higher percentiles in the income distribution of the parents. Above the median the correlation is found to be stronger than for labour earnings. Interestingly, the elasticity is higher for labour earnings for most part of the distribution and complementing the elasticity with correlation curves provides a much more complete picture of the intergenerational income mobility.
    Keywords: C14 ; D63 ; J62 ; ddc:330 ; intergenerational mobility ; nonlinear ; nonparametric ; correlation curve
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    Durham, NC: Duke University, Center for the History of Political Economy (CHOPE)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Commerce changes the production of wealth in a society as well as its ethics. What is appropriate in a non-commercial society is not necessarily appropriate in a commercial one. Adam Smith criticizes Stoic self-command in commercial societies, rather than embracing it, as is often suggested. He argues that Stoicism, with its promotion of indifference to passions, is an ethic appropriate for savages. Savages live in hard conditions where expressing emotions is detrimental and reprehensible. In contrast, the ease of life brought about by commerce fosters the appropriate expressions and sharing of emotions. Imposing Stoicism on a commercial society is therefore imposing an ethic for savages onto a refined society - something to abhor. Smith's rejection of Stoicism in commercial societies can thus be seen as a defense of commerce.
    Keywords: B12 ; B15 ; D91 ; F69 ; O1 ; Z1 ; ddc:330 ; Adam Smith ; Stoicism ; Commerce ; Commercial Societies ; Savages ; Expression of Emotions ; Insensitivity
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  • 20
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: The relationship between many G20 governments and organized civil society has become more complex, laden with tensions, and such that both have to find more optimal modes of engagement. In some instances, state-civil society relations have worsened, leading some experts and activists to speak of a 'shrinking space' for civil society. How wide-spread is this phenomenon? Are these more isolated occurrences or indeed part of a more general development? How can countries achieve and maintain an enabling environment for civil society? The authors suggest that much of the current impasse results foremost from outdated and increasingly ill-suited regulatory frameworks that fail to accommodate a much more diverse and expanded set of civil society organizations (CSO). In response, they propose a differentiated model for a regulatory framework based on functional roles. Based on quantitative profiling and expert surveys, moreover, the paper also derives initial recommendations on how governments and civil society could find ways to relate to each other in both national and multilateral contexts.
    Keywords: F5 ; L31 ; H7 ; K33 ; ddc:330 ; civil society ; NGOs ; closing civic space ; nonprofit regulation ; G20
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  • 21
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: This study examines how a government’s majority status affects coalition governance and performance. Two steps are investigated: the inclusion of government parties’ electoral pledges into the coalition agreement, and the ability to translate pledges into legislative outputs. The main results of a comparative analysis of 183 pledges of a minority (without a formal support partner) and majority coalition in the German State North Rhine-Westphalia indicate that government parties with minority status include fewer pledges in the coalition agreement. But this does not mean that they also perform badly at pledge fulfilment. In fact, they show an equivalent performance in fulfilling election pledges, at least partially, when compared to majority government parties. However, there is tentative evidence that the prime minister’s party shows a lower quality of pledge fulfilment, as measured by a higher share of partially enacted pledges.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: The authors examine the impacts of quality of institutions, border and transport efficiency, physical and communication infrastructure on overall and intra-Africa trade covering 44 African countries and their 173 trade partners for the periods 2000-2014. Aggregate indicators are derived for the quality of economic institutions, border and transport efficiency, physical and communication infrastructure using principal component analysis. The findings disclose that intra-Africa and overall Africa's trade robustly determined by the quality of institutions, border and transport efficiency, physical and communication infrastructure. The estimates also indicate that the marginal effect of the quality of institutions, physical and communication infrastructure on trade flow appears to be increasing in GDP per capita. In contrast, the marginal effect of border and transport efficiency on trade decreases in GDP per capita. The authors compute simulation of improving each indicator to the best performer in the sample. Their findings are robust to estimation method conducted to account for potential endogeneity.
    Keywords: F1 ; F14 ; ddc:330 ; trade flow ; transport and border efficiency ; quality of institutions ; physical and communication infrastructure ; gravity model ; African countries
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  • 23
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Das MIP-Erhebungsdesign sieht vor, abwechselnd Kurz- und Langerhebungen durchzuführen. Die Erhebung des Jahres 2018 war eine Kurzerhebung. Das bedeutet unter anderem, dass sich das Fragenspektrum vorrangig auf Fragen zu den Kernindikatoren des Innovationsverhaltens beschränkt. Die Haupterhebungsergebnisse zu diesen Kernindikatoren sind in einem Indikatorenbericht (vgl. Rammer et al., 2019) sowie in 47 Branchenberichten1 veröffentlicht. Zusätzlich zu den Fragen zu Kernindikatoren des Innovationsverhaltens wurden in die Erhebung 2018 auch zwei Schwerpunktfragen aufgenommen: - Eine Schwerpunktfrage widmete sich der Zusammenarbeit mit der Wissenschaft. Gefragt wurde, ob Unternehmen mit Wissenschaftseinrichtungen (Hochschulen, Forschungseinrichtungen) im Zeitraum 2015-2017 zusammengearbeitet haben. Für den aus Sicht des Unternehmens wichtigsten Kooperationspartner auf Wissenschaftsseite wurde die Form der Zusammenarbeit und deren Effektivität für den Zugang zum Knowhow der Wissenschaftseinrichtung sowie die Nutzung von Förderung für diese Zusammenarbeit erhoben. - Eine zweite Schwerpunktfrage betraf das Thema Fachkräftebedarf. Erhoben wurde, wie viele offene Stellen Unternehmen im Jahr 2017 hatten, welchen Qualifikationsniveau diese offenen Stellen vorausgesetzt haben, und wie viele dieser Stellen wie geplant, nur verspätet oder nicht mit dem gewünschten Personal oder gar nicht besetzt werden konnten. Außerdem wurde erfasst, wie viele Auszubildende im Unternehmen im Jahr 2017 beschäftigt waren. Der vorliegende Bericht fasst zentrale deskriptive Ergebnisse zu diesen Schwerpunktfragen zusammen. Die vollständigen Ergebnisse differenziert nach Branchen und Größenklassen sind in Tabellenform online verfügbar. Außerdem werden methodische Aspekte der Befragung (Grundgesamtheit, Stichprobe, Datenaufbereitungs- und Hochrechnungsverfahren) dargestellt.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Oldenburg: University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Environmental externalities call for the use of environmental taxes to get prices right and thereby reduce environmental pressures. To date, however, the Spanish government makes only limited use of environmental taxes. One major reason for the policy reluctance are concerns on the regressive impacts of environmental taxes. We argue that policy can hedge against these concerns by means of revenue recycling. More specifically, we assess the impacts of a green tax reform where additional revenues are redistributed lump-sum to Spanish households on an equal-per-capita basis. Based on quantitative evidence from coupled microsimulation and computable equilibrium analyses we find that such a green tax reform leads to a substantial reduction in harmful emissions while having a progressive impact.
    Keywords: H23 ; Q4 ; Q53 ; Q54 ; ddc:330 ; environmental tax reform ; household incidence ; computable general equilibrium ; microsimulation
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    Berlin: Freie Universität Berlin, Fachbereich Wirtschaftswissenschaft
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Evidence suggests that people evaluate outcomes relative to expectations. I analyze this expectation-based loss aversion (Köszegi and Rabin (2006, 2009)) in the context of dynamic and static auctions, where the reference point is given by the (endogenous) equilibrium outcome. If agents update their reference point during the auction, the arrival of information crucially affects equilibrium behavior. Consequently, I show that - even with independent private values - the Vickrey auction yields strictly higher revenue than the English auction, violating the well known revenue equivalence. Thus, dynamic loss aversion offers a novel explanation for empirically observed differences between these auction formats.
    Keywords: D03 ; D44 ; ddc:330 ; Vickrey auction ; English auction ; expectation-based loss aversion ; revenue equivalence ; dynamic loss aversion ; personal equilibrium
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Pessimism determines the experts' predictions for the first and second quarter of 2019 which can be inferred from the downward revisions of the experts' forecasts. Although the experts still expect the yield curve to become steeper, they expect long-term interest rates to increase less compared to the last survey. The lower interest rate forecasts are consistent with the experts' lower inflation and growth expectations. The experts expect 1.7 percent inflation in the Eurozone and a growth rate of real gross domestic product of 1.6 percent for 2019, which indicates a slowdown of economic growth and a failure of the European Central Bank (ECB) in meeting its inflation target. Given that, the experts expect the long-term interest rate to be 0.51 percent at the end of the first quarter of 2019, which is 0.24 percentage points lower than their prediction in the last survey. For the short rate the experts expect no change, since they expect the ECB's main refinancing rate to stay at 0.0 percent in the first half of 2019. But the experts expect the yield of US Treasury bonds to increase from 2.86 percent to 3.31 percent by the end of the first half of 2019 and thereby a growing interest rate differential between the US and Europe. Given the less accommodative monetary policy by the ECB in 2019 the experts forecast of a mild appreciation of the Euro from 1.138 US-Dollar to 1.143 US-Dollar in the first quarter and to 1.162 US-Dollar in the second quarter of 2019. Although the experts revised their stock market forecasts downwards, they expect the DAX and the Stoxx index to recover in the first half of 2019. On average, the experts predict the Stoxx index to increase from 2.807 points at the end of the fourth quarter of 2018 to 2.951 points at the end of the first quarter of 2019 and to 3.072 points at the end of the second quarter of 2019. This would correspond to increases of 5.1 percent and 9.4 percent since December 2018. Moreover, the experts expect the DAX to increase from 10.788 to 11.396 in the first quarter of 2019 and to 11.919 in the second quarter of 2019, which corresponds to increases by 5.6 and 10.5 percent since end of December 2018. Interesting is that the experts expect the Stoxx and the DAX to grow faster than the S&P 500, which we surveyed for the first time. For the S&P 500 the experts only expect increases by 0.7 and 5.3 percent. In the long-term ranking, which covers the last 16 quarters, National-Bank could defend rank one, while Commerzbank and Nord/LB could defend rank two and rank three.
    Keywords: G12 ; G17 ; ddc:330
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: We consider the problem of testing for an omitted multiplicative long-term component in GARCH-type models. Under the alternative there is a two-component model with a short-term GARCH component that fluctuates around a smoothly time-varying long-term component which is driven by the dynamics of an explanatory variable. We suggest a Lagrange Multiplier statistic for testing the null hypothesis that the variable has no explanatory power. We derive the asymptotic theory for our test statistic and investigate its finite sample properties by Monte-Carlo simulation. Our test also covers the mixed-frequency case in which the returns are observed at a higher frequency than the explanatory variable. The usefulness of our procedure is illustrated by empirical applications to S&P 500 return data.
    Keywords: C53 ; C58 ; E32 ; G12 ; ddc:330 ; GARCH-MIDAS ; LM test ; Long-Term Volatility ; Mixed-Frequency Data ; Volatility Component Models
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: We provide a shrinkage type methodology which allows for simultaneous model selection and estimation of vector error correction models (VECM) when the dimension is large and can increase with sample size. Model determination is treated as a joint selection problem of cointegrating rank and autoregressive lags under respective practically valid sparsity assumptions. We show consistency of the selection mechanism by the resulting Lasso-VECM estimator under very general assumptions on dimension, rank and error terms. Moreover, with computational complexity of a linear programming problem only, the procedure remains computationally tractable in high dimensions. We demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach by a simulation study and an empirical application to recent CDS data after the financial crisis.
    Keywords: C32 ; C52 ; ddc:330 ; High-dimensional time series ; VECM ; Cointegration rank and lag selection ; Lasso ; Credit Default Swap
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: We introduce a method for measuring default risk connectedness of euro zone sovereign states using credit default swap (CDS) and bond data. The connectedness measure is based on an out-of-sample variance decomposition of model forecast errors. Due to its predictive nature, it can respond more quickly to crisis occurrences than common in-sample techniques. We determine sovereign default risk connectedness with both CDS and bond data for a more comprehensive picture of the system. We find evidence that several observable factors drive the difference of CDS and bonds, but both data sources still contain specific information for connectedness spill-overs. Generally, we can identify countries that impose risk on the system and the respective spill-over channels. In our empirical analysis we cover the years 2009-2014, such that recovery paths of countries exiting EU and IMF financial assistance schemes and responses to the ECB's unconventional policy measures can be analyzed.
    Keywords: C58 ; G01 ; G15 ; C32 ; ddc:330 ; Variance decomposition ; Sovereign risk ; Connectedness ; Credit default swaps ; Bonds ; Eurozone crisis
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: We study the impact of changes in regulations and policy interventions on systemic risk among European sovereigns measured as volatility spillovers in respective credit risk markets. Our unique intraday CDS dataset allows for precise measurement of the effectiveness of these events in a network setting. In particular, it allows discerning interventions which entail significant changes in network cross-effects with appropriate bootstrap confidence intervals. We show that it was mainly regulatory changes with the ban of trading naked sovereign CDS in 2012 as well as the new ISDA regulations in 2014 which were most effective in reducing systemic risk. In comparison, we find that the effect of policy interventions was minor and generally not sustainable. In particular, they only had a significant impact when implemented for the first time and when targeting more than one country. For the volatility spillover channels, we generally find balanced networks with no fragmentation over time.
    Keywords: G20 ; G01 ; G17 ; C32 ; C55 ; G28 ; ddc:330 ; Financial Crises ; Policy and Regulation ; Financial Stability and Systemic Risk in the Eurozone ; High-Frequency CDS ; Bootstrap Spillover-Measures
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: An accurate assessment of tail inequalities and tail asymmetries of financial returns is key for risk management and portfolio allocation. We propose a new test procedure for detecting the full extent of such structural differences in the dependence of bivariate extreme returns. We decompose the testing problem into piecewise multiple comparisons of Cramér-von Mises distances of tail copulas. In this way, tail regions that cause differences in extreme dependence can be located and consequently be targeted by financial strategies. We derive the asymptotic properties of the test and provide a bootstrap approximation for finite samples. Moreover, we account for the multiplicity of the piecewise tail copula comparisons by adjusting individual p-values according to multiple testing techniques. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate the test's superior finite-sample properties for common financial tail risk models, both in the i.i.d. and the sequentially dependent case. During the last 90 years in US stock markets, our test detects up to 20% more tail asymmetries than competing tests. This can be attributed to the presence of non-standard tail dependence structures. We also find evidence for diminishing tail asymmetries during every major financial crisis - except for the 2007-09 crisis - reflecting a risk-return trade-off for extreme returns.
    Keywords: C12 ; C53 ; C58 ; ddc:330 ; tail dependence ; tail copulas ; tail asymmetry ; tail inequality ; extreme values ; multiple testing
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: We use administrative and survey-based micro data to study the relationship between cognitive abilities (IQ), the formation of economic expectations, and the choices of a representative male population. Men above the median IQ (high-IQ men) display 50% lower forecast errors for inflation than other men. The inflation expectations and perceptions of high-IQ men, but not others, are positively correlated over time. High-IQ men are also less likely to round and to forecast implausible values. In terms of choice, only high-IQ men increase their propensity to consume when expecting higher inflation as the consumer Euler equation prescribes. High-IQ men are also forward-looking - they are more likely to save for retirement conditional on saving. Education levels, income, socio-economic status, and employment status, although important, do not explain the variation in expectations and choice by IQ. Our results have implications for heterogeneous-beliefs models of household consumption, saving, and investment.
    Keywords: D12 ; D84 ; D91 ; E21 ; E31 ; E32 ; E52 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Behavioral Macroeconomics ; Heterogeneous Beliefs ; Limited Cognition ; Expectations Formation ; Household Finance
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    Karlsruhe: Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-26
    Description: Intertemporal substitution is at the heart of modern macroeconomics and finance as well as economic policymaking, but a large fraction of a representative population of men - those below the top of the distribution by cognitive abilities (IQ) - do not change their consumption propensities with their inflation expectations. Low-IQ men are also less than half as sensitive to interest-rate changes when making borrowing decisions. Our microdata include unique administrative information on cognitive abilities, as well as economic expectations, consumption and borrowing plans, and total household debt from Finland. Heterogeneity in observables such as education, income, other expectations, and financial constraints do not drive these patterns. Costly information acquisition and the ability to form accurate forecasts are channels that cannot fully explain these results. Limited cognitive abilities could be human frictions in the transmission and effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policies that operate through household consumption and borrowing decisions.
    Keywords: D12 ; D84 ; D91 ; E21 ; E31 ; E32 ; E52 ; E65 ; ddc:330 ; Macroeconomic Beliefs ; Limited Cognition ; Heterogeneous Agents ; Fiscal and Monetary Policy ; Survey Data ; Household Finance
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This open access book looks at how a democracy can devolve into a post-factual state. The media is being flooded by populist narratives, fake news, conspiracy theories and make-believe. Misinformation is turning into a challenge for all of us, whether politicians, journalists, or citizens. In the age of information, attention is a prime asset and may be converted into money, power, and influence - sometimes at the cost of facts. The point is to obtain exposure on the air and in print media, and to generate traffic on social media platforms. With information in abundance and attention scarce, the competition is ever fiercer with truth all too often becoming the first victim. Reality Lost: Markets of Attention, Misinformation and Manipulation is an analysis by philosophers Vincent F. Hendricks and Mads Vestergaard of the nuts and bolts of the information market, the attention economy and media eco-system which may pave way to postfactual democracy. Here misleading narratives become the basis for political opinion formation, debate, and legislation. To curb this development and the threat it poses to democratic deliberation, political self-determination and freedom, it is necessary that we first grasp the mechanisms and structural conditions that cause it.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This open access book discusses how Norwegian shipping companies played a crucial role in global shipping markets in the 20th century, at times transporting more than ten per cent of world seaborne trade. Chapters explore how Norway managed to remain competitive, despite being a high labour-cost country in an industry with global competition. Among the features that are emphasised are market developments, business strategies and political decisions The Norwegian experience was shaped by the main breaking points in 20th century world history, such as the two world wars, and by long-term trends, such as globalization and liberalization. The shipping companies introduced technological and organizational innovations to build or maintain a competitive advantage in a rapidly changing world. The growing importance of offshore petroleum exploration in the North Sea from the 1970s was both a threat and an opportunity to the shipping companies. By adapting both business strategies and the political regime to the new circumstances, the Norwegian shipping sector managed to maintain a leading position internationally.
    Keywords: ddc:330
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    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: Dieses Open-Access-Buch erläutert ein Handlungsmodell zur Gestaltung sozialer Versorgung. Das Modell beinhaltet 16 Gestaltungsaufgaben, die sich an den wesentlichen Planungs- und Steuerungsaufgaben sozialer Versorgung und den vier Phasen eines Managementkreislaufes (Analyse, Strategieentwicklung, Umsetzung, Weiterentwicklung) orientieren. Dem Handlungsmodell liegt ein prozessorientiertes, reflexives und an der Sozialen Arbeit ausgerichtetes Handlungsverständnis zugrunde, das über "lineare" Planungsansätze hinausreicht. Das Lehrbuch möchte Impulse für eine systematische und zugleich innovative Gestaltung sozialer Versorgung geben.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Sozialplanung ; Sozialmanagement ; Management sozialer Dienstleistungen ; Management sozialer Organisationen ; Sozialpolitische Steuerung ; Methoden der Sozialen Arbeit
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    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This open access Pivot demonstrates how a variety of technologies act as innovation catalysts within the banking and financial services sector. Traditional banks and financial services are under increasing competition from global IT companies such as Google, Apple, Amazon and PayPal whilst facing pressure from investors to reduce costs, increase agility and improve customer retention. Technologies such as blockchain, cloud computing, mobile technologies, big data analytics and social media therefore have perhaps more potential in this industry and area of business than any other. This book defines a fintech ecosystem for the 21st century, providing a state-of-the art review of current literature, suggesting avenues for new research and offering perspectives from business, technology and industry.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; fintech ecosystem ; crowdfunding ; entrepreneurship ; regulation ; technology innovation ; digital currencies ; blockchain ; artificial intelligence ; big data ; social media ; insurtech ; machine learning
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    Cham: Palgrave Macmillan
    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This open access book analyses the development problems of sub-Sahara Africa (SSA) from the eyes of a Korean diplomat with knowledge of the economic growth Korea has experienced in recent decades. The author argues that Africa's development challenges are not due to a lack of resources but a lack of management, presenting an alternative to the traditional view that Africa's problems are caused by a lack of leadership. In exploring an approach based on mind-set and nation-building, rather than unity - which tends to promote individual or party interests rather than the broader country or national interests - the author suggests new solutions for SSA's economic growth, inspired by Korea's successful economic growth model much of which is focused on industrialisation. This book will be of interest to researchers, policymakers, NGOs and governmental bodies in economics, development and politics studying Africa's economic development, and Korea's economic growth model
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Economic Discrimination ; Korean economic growth ; Saemaul Undong ; Nation-building ; Economics and Industrialisation ; Korean development model ; Sub-Saharan African development economics ; Human and social capital
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    Publication Date: 2019-01-28
    Description: This open access book analyzes and seeks to consolidate the use of robust quantitative tools and qualitative methods for the design and assessment of energy and climate policies. In particular, it examines energy and climate policy performance and associated risks, as well as public acceptance and portfolio analysis in climate policy, and presents methods for evaluating the costs and benefits of flexible policy implementation as well as new framings for business and market actors. In turn, it discusses the development of alternative policy pathways and the identification of optimal switching points, drawing on concrete examples to do so. Lastly, it discusses climate change mitigation policies' implications for the agricultural, food, building, transportation, service and manufacturing sectors.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; robust policy making ; adaptive policy making ; multiple criteria decision making ; energy and climate policy ; decision making under uncertainty ; collaborative uncertainty modeling
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    Halle (Saale): Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (IWH)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-30
    Description: This article examines how trade shocks shape labour market imperfections that create market power in labour markets and prevent an efficient allocation of labour. I develop a framework for measuring such labor market distortions in monetary terms and document large degrees of those distortions in Germany's manufacturing sector. Import competition can only exert labor market disciplining effects when firms rather than workers have labour market power. Otherwise, export demand and import competition shocks tend to fortify existing distortions by amplifying labour market power structures. This diminishes the gains from trade compared to a model with perfectly competitive labour markets.
    Keywords: D24 ; F14 ; F16 ; J50 ; L13 ; L60 ; ddc:330 ; international trade ; market power ; labor markets ; allocative efficiency
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Mannheim: ZEW - Leibniz-Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung
    Publication Date: 2019-01-30
    Description: Innovation is considered as a main driver of economic growth. Promoting the development of innovation through STI (science, technology and innovation) policies requires accurate indicators of innovation. Traditional indicators often lack coverage, granularity as well as timeliness and involve high data collection costs, especially when conducted at a large scale. In this paper, we propose a novel approach on how to create firm-level innovation indicators at the scale of millions of firms. We use traditional firm-level innovation indicators from the questionnaire-based Community Innovation Survey (CIS) survey to train an artificial neural network classification model on labelled (innovative/non-innovative) web texts of surveyed firms. Subsequently, we apply this classification model to the web texts of hundreds of thousands of firms in Germany to predict their innovation status. Our results show that this approach produces credible predictions and has the potential to be a valuable and highly cost-efficient addition to the existing set of innovation indicators, especially due to its coverage and regional granularity. The predicted firm-level probabilities can also directly be interpreted as a continuous measure of innovativeness, opening up additional advantages over traditional binary innovation indicators.
    Keywords: O30 ; C81 ; C83 ; ddc:330 ; Web Mining ; Web Scraping ; R&D ; R&I ; STI ; Innovation ; Indicators ; Text Mining ; Natural Language Processing ; NLP ; Deep Learning
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    Publication Date: 2018-11-14
    Description: This study contributes to the understanding of long- and short-term determinants of cooperation among water users. We experimentally investigate the potential of water users’ self-governance in enhancing their contributions to a common pool as opposed to external regulation. Our focus is on the irrigated areas of Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Due to their Soviet past, these countries have a reputation for low bottom-up cooperation potential. Based on the different pre-Soviet irrigation traditions of the two study sites, we assess the effectiveness of short-term incentives compared to long term cultural factors of cooperation. History might matter, but we find it does not predetermine the success of current water decentralization in ancient as compared to relatively recently established irrigation sites. Our study reveals that external regulation, in fact, decreases farmers’ cooperation, whereas face-to-face communication increases it. This finding calls into question the top-down approach prevalent in current water policies of the region. Moreover, it suggests the viability of endogenous cooperation and hence encourages the implementation of truly self-governed water management policies in Central Asia. However, the substantial heterogeneity in individual contributions apparent at the village level also signals a warning that one-size-fits-all approaches to local cooperation are unlikely to succeed.
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Water-management ; Self-governance ; Field experiment ; Cultural determinants ; Central Asia
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    Kiel, Hamburg: ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-05
    Description: Paper models lender’s decision based on project riskiness, trust from borrower’s socioeconomic network, and social cost of default for the borrower. The paper suggests a methodology to estimate aggregate level of trustworthiness of borrower in socio-economic network. Our model links the social cost of default to credit default. A relatively safer project executed by a borrower with lower social cost of default is likely to be a willful defaulter. Similarly, relatively safer project executed by a borrower with high social cost of default is likely to pay-back the loan.
    Keywords: D85 ; G21 ; L14 ; ddc:330 ; Social Economic Network ; Trust ; Credit Risk
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    Toronto: The Bichler & Nitzan Archives
    Publication Date: 2019-01-08
    Description: A new, capitalism-denying book is on the shelves, and it makes a stunning discovery: ‘Capitalism without competition is not capitalism’! Capitalist crisis, like climate change, tends to breed ‘capitalism deniers’. The problem, argue the deniers, lies not in capitalism but in its ‘distortions’. In its pure form, they maintain, capitalism is the best of all possible worlds. But to the deniers’ chagrin, contemporary capitalism is no longer pristine. Unlike its original, once-upon-a-time version, its current one is subject to distorting ‘imperfections’, ‘shocks’ and ‘exogenous’ events. And it is these aberrations – rather than capitalism itself – that should be blamed for the system’s misfortunes.
    Keywords: L ; L1 ; P ; ddc:330 ; capitalism ; competition ; fundamentalism ; ideology ; neoclassical economics
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-08
    Description: In this paper, I study the effect of a change in the mandatory manufacturer rebate on wholesale prices for pharmaceuticals on competition by parallel imports. First, I analyze the effect of a manufacturer rebate on competition by parallel imports in a two-country model. An increase in the manufacturer rebate increases the market share of parallel imports. Second, I exploit a policy reform in Germany in 2010 that increased the manufacturer rebate by 10 percentage points. Using a data set with prescription drugs with competition from parallel imports, I estimate the effect of the change in the manufacturer rebate on competition by parallel imports. Estimation results suggest that an increase in the manufacturer rebate has increased the market share of parallel imports.
    Keywords: F12 ; I11 ; I18 ; ddc:330 ; parallel imports ; manufacturer rebate ; pharmaceuticals ; regulation
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  • 47
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-08
    Description: Im Rahmen des vorliegenden IW-Reports werden die Konsequenzen der aktuellen handelspolitischen Herausforderungen für die deutsche Wirtschaft geschätzt und die Größenordnung ihrer gesamtwirtschaftlichen Effekte quantifiziert. Die Simulationen mit dem Oxford Economics Global Economic Model (OEGEM) zeigen, dass die deutsche Wirtschaft erheblich unter einer Eskalation des Handelskonflikts mit den USA leiden würde. In einem Worst-Case-Szenario, bei dem die USA das Zollniveau gegenüber der Europäischen Union (EU) und fünf weiteren wichtigen Handelspartnern um 25 Prozent erhöhen und die betroffenen Länder mit entsprechenden Ver-geltungsmaßnahmen reagieren, dürfte die globale Wirtschaftsleistung um fast 3 Prozent schrumpfen. Etwas stärker fällt der Effekt auf Deutschland mit 3,8 Prozent aus, das Bruttoinlandsprodukt (BIP) der USA könnte sogar um 4,1 Prozent zurückgehen. Des Weiteren werden die Ergebnisse einer Unternehmensbefragung des Instituts der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW) in Kooperation mit der IW Consult aufgezeigt. Befragt wurden mehr als 1.100 Unternehmen in Deutschland nach ihren Erwartungen im Fall einer Zuspitzung des Handelskonflikts. Die Ergebnisse zeigen unter anderem, dass über 40 Prozent der befragten Unternehmen von negativen Effekten auf die Produktion und Beschäftigung in Deutschland ausgehen, sollte der Handelsstreit weiter eskalieren. Bei den US-Exporten gehen sogar über 81 Prozent der bereits in die USA exportierenden Firmen von Einbußen aus. Selbst auf die Investitionen und die bestehende Wertschöpfung deutscher Unternehmen in den USA dürfte die Zuspitzung des Handelskonflikts gemäß der Umfrage negative Effekte auslösen.
    Description: The present IW report estimates the consequences of the current trade policy challenges for the German economy and quantifies the magnitude of their macroeconomic effects. Simula-tions with the Oxford Economics Global Economic Model (OEGEM) show that the German economy would suffer significantly from an escalation of the trade conflict with the US. In a worst-case scenario, where the US raises tariff levels by 25 per cent against the EU and five other major trading partners and they implement corresponding retaliatory measures, global economic output is likely to shrink by nearly 3 per cent. The effect on Germany is more pronounced at 3.8 per cent, while US GDP could even decline by 4.1 per cent. Furthermore, the results of a company survey of the German Economic Institute in cooperation with IW Consult are presented. More than 1,100 companies in Germany were asked what they expect in the event of an escalation of the trade conflict. The results show, among other things, that more than 40 per cent of the companies surveyed expect negative effects on production and employment in Germany, should the trade dispute continue to escalate. In terms of US exports, even more than 81 per cent of companies already exporting to the USA expect losses. According to the survey, the escalation of the trade conflict is likely to trigger negative effects, even on investments and the existing engagement of German companies in the USA.
    Keywords: E17 ; F13 ; F47 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-08
    Description: I study the effect of reference pricing on competition by parallel imports, in particular the market share of parallel imports and the number of parallel traders. First, I analyze the effect of reference pricing on competition by parallel imports in a vertical differentiation model with a locally sourced version and a parallel import offered by n identical parallel traders. Second, I explore the effect of reference pricing on competition by parallel imports using a dataset with prescription drugs with competition from parallel imports. Both model and estimation results suggest that the introduction of reference pricing inreases the market share of the parallel import and the number of parallel traders, while a decrease in the reference price decreases the market share of the parallel import and the number of parallel traders.
    Keywords: F12 ; I11 ; I18 ; ddc:330 ; reference pricing ; parallel imports ; pharmaceutical regulation
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    Basel: Springer Nature | ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics Kiel, Hamburg
    Publication Date: 2019-01-08
    Description: This article discusses the aggregation problem and its implications for ecological economics. The aggregation problem consists of a simple dilemma: when adding heterogeneous phenomena together, the observer must choose the unit of analysis. The dilemma is that this choice affects the resulting measurement. This means that aggregate measurements are dependent on one’s goals, and on the underlying theory. Using simple examples, this article shows how the aggregation problem complicates tasks such as calculating indexes of aggregate quantity, and how it undermines attempts to find a singular metric for complex issues such as sustainability. [Data and analysis for this paper are available at the Open Science Framework: https://osf.io/3smra/]
    Keywords: P16 ; P48 ; E01 ; C43 ; Q56 ; Q01 ; ddc:330 ; aggregation ; capital stock ; GDP ; natural capital ; sustainability indices
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    Durham, NC: Duke University, Center for the History of Political Economy (CHOPE)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-11
    Description: A popular view of models among economists and philosophers alike is that all models are false, but some are useful. Models are frequently treated as convenient fictions, idealizations, stories about credible worlds, or "near enough" to the truth. But such a understandings pose serious questions, among them: if models are false, how is it that they are so useful? how can they have any bearing on what is actually the case in the world? how can we evaluate them empirically? How can we develop them for greater precision? for understanding how models related to the world, how they can successfully support scientific investigation? The paper argues that these and related questions reflect a fundamental confusion: models are, in fact, useful only to the degree that they are instruments for stating truth. The confusion arises from a failure to understand how models relate to the world analogically. Analogies are fundamentally incomplete and perspectival, so that the truths that state are necessarily piecemeal But models may nonetheless be apt. A critical distinction is drawn between accuracy and precision in modeling. Modeling is related to Charles Peirce's analytical inference. And the application of analytical inference in economics is illustrated with a historical case-study of Lawrence Klein's early econometric models of the U.S. economy.
    Keywords: B40 ; B41 ; B22 ; B23 ; ddc:330 ; model ; factionalism ; idealization ; truth ; perspectival realism ; Charles S. Peirce ; Lawrence R. Klein ; macroeconometric models
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    Göttingen: University of Göttingen, Center for European, Governance and Economic Development Research (cege)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-11
    Description: Women in developing countries face challenges in terms of managing their menstrual hygiene. Oftentimes they do not possess the right means nor materials nor have access to the right facilities. Using a newly released dataset for Burkina Faso and propensity score matching, we provide for the first time evidence of a strong causal impact of advanced menstrual hygiene management on work attendance. Access to advanced menstrual hygiene management materials (disposable sanitary pads) reduces work absenteeism of women by about 21 percentage points. When we stratify the sample by religious affiliation, we find the treatment effect to be insignificant for Christian women and strong and significant for Muslim women.
    Keywords: D10 ; I12 ; I14 ; J16 ; O12 ; ddc:330 ; Menstrual Hygiene Management ; Work Attendance ; Period Poverty ; Propensity Score Matching ; Gender Inequality
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    Oldenburg: University of Oldenburg, Department of Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-09
    Description: Tying in with a small number of studies on green norms, identity and subjective well-being, this paper studies the relationship between holding a green self-image and life satisfaction in the UK. Focusing on (sub-national) regions as the unit of reference, we investigate if and how the individual-level greenness-satisfaction relationship varies with measures of the prevalence and distribution (disparity) of greenness at the regional level, taking these measures as indicators of a green social norm. Two key findings emerge from our analysis. First, life satisfaction is negatively related to the regional-level mean (prevalence) and positively related to the regional-level diversity of greenness, while being unrelated to the degree of polarization of greenness. Taking the prevalence as a direct and diversity as an inverse measure of the validity of a greenness norm, these results are consistent with the idea that the norm is experienced (by greens) as a standard of reference in the process of green status competition or (by non-greens) as a source of social pressure. Second, the well-being benefits from holding a greener self-image are unrelated to the prevalence and diversity of greenness, but positively related to the polarization of greenness for those either very green or not green at all. This is consistent with the idea that green self-image yields well-being benefits through identity, that is, by identifying with the own group and differentiating oneself from other groups - a possibility that relies on sufficiently large differentiation/polarization of groups. We discuss differences between these results and previous findings based on measures of nation-wide prevalence and disparity of greenness.
    Keywords: I31 ; Q51 ; Q58 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; subjective well-being ; norms ; green behavior ; green self-image ; fractionalization ; polarization
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-09
    Description: The Austrian Beveridge curve shifted in 2014, leading to ongoing academic discussions about the reasons behind this shift. While some have argued that the shift was caused by a supply shock due to labour market liberalization, others have stated that matching efficiency decreased. Using a new decomposition method, combined with detailed labour market flow data, we are the first to disentangle supply-side, demand-side and matching factors, which could potentially cause a shift in the Beveridge curve in Austria. We find empirical evidence to confirm that the increase in the unemployment rate in Austria after 2011 can indeed be attributed to a supplyside shock. But, contrary to other research, our analysis shows that the shift in the Beveridge curve after 2014 was mainly caused by a decrease in matching efficiency, indicating a rising mismatch problem in the Austrian labour market.
    Keywords: J62 ; J63 ; E24 ; E32 ; ddc:330 ; Beveridge curve ; crisis ; mismatch ; unemployment ; structural unemployment ; vacancies
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    Kiel: Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-11
    Description: The influence of politics on economic policy is not fully understood. The challenge to ensure political inclusiveness and economic prosperity remains. Perhaps, one way to attain this objective is by increasing political competition. This paper gathers empirical evidence from Pakistan, a country with a checkered political history characterized by episodes of representative, non-representative, and indirectly elected governments. In recent years, the country has witnessed a gradual strengthening of democratic rules with economic progress. Focusing on nine elections held over 1970 to 2015 the authors measure political competition and estimate its impact on economic policy. Contrary to popular conceptions about Pakistan's economy, they find a positive association between lack of political competition and poor economic policy. This finding holds at national as well as subnational levels in Pakistan and withstands a number of robustness tests.
    Keywords: H21 ; H24 ; H31 ; J22 ; ddc:330 ; political competition ; Pakistan ; economic policy ; economic performance ; subnational
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-11
    Description: Menschen mit einem hohen Vertrauen in ihre eigenen Fähigkeiten und Fertigkeiten sind beruflich erfolgreicher, zufriedener und zeigen ein höheres allgemeines Wohlbefinden. Erfolgserlebnisse stärken diese Selbstwirksamkeitsüberzeugung, doch gerade in den boomenden Berufsfeldern mit komplexen geistigen Tätigkeiten fehlt oft die unmittelbare Bestätigung des eigenen Könnens.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Köln: Institut der deutschen Wirtschaft (IW)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-11
    Description: Die Unternehmen in Ost- und Westdeutschland gehen mit nahezu identischen Produktionserwartungen in das Jahr 2019. Die Wachstumsperspektiven sind derzeit in beiden Regionen jedoch spürbar moderater als im Frühjahr 2018 - die Abwärtskorrektur fällt im Westen erheblich stärker aus. Bei den Exporten, Investitionen und bei der Beschäftigung bleiben die ostdeutschen Erwartungen deutlich hinter jenen im Westen zurück.
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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    Kiel, Hamburg: ZBW – Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: This article provides an overview of key economic concepts in water services with a focus on price-based strategies for demand management in the face of resource scarcity using the case of Nairobi city water services. The paper starts by first presenting key issues and concepts in water economics then looks into detail issues of water pricing and concludes by providing recommendations to the city utility on a novel approach for price-based demand management of scarce water resources. Three key messages emerge from this brief review. First is that water pricing has been used more as an instrument for achieving financial sustainability of the supplier rather than an economic allocation instrument. The message is that if the service provider is not able to maintain the system adequately because of charging the wrong price, the quality of services will deteriorate. Eventually the system collapses leaving people more vulnerable to water-related diseases. Second is that the quality of water governance depends on two factors-the public value that citizens place on water and what they are willing to pay for it and the quality of the relationship between citizens, the state and the managing entity of the service. The Third message is that contrary to conventional economic theory, an increase in price of water doesn’t always signal the consumer to reduce consumption and demand. Research shows that most urban households don’t know the price they pay for water since it makes a very small portion of their budget, so prices don’t affect them much especially when the billing structure is complicated and information not available to users. This calls for urban utilities to increase awareness on the value and cost of water through proper structuring and presentation of water bills to consumers.
    Keywords: A13 ; ddc:330 ; Valuing water ; Economics of Water ; Demand Management
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: The unstoppable progress of the demographic transition is determining a progressive decline of the rates of growth of the total population and working age population of the planet, two phenomena that could have a very positive global socioeconomic and environmental impact. Unfortunately, it is also determining a growing demographic polarization between an increasing number of countries, the most developed ones, where working age population will drop, and a decreasing number, the poorest ones, in which it will explode. The former will be affected by a dramatic structural shortage of labour that will make immigration unavoidable, the latter by a dramatic structural excess of labour that will make emigration necessary to avoid political and socioeconomic havoc. This phenomenon will have extremely disruptive effects not only at the country level but also at the planet level unless both groups of countries will understand that the disease provides its own medicine in the form of well planned and organized migration flows that, while responding to the quantitative and qualitative needs of potential arrival countries, will relieve the poorest countries from their structural excess of labour. Obviously there is a problem: this rational solution is in stark contrast with the myopic and xenophobic vision of an emerging political class that funds its success on the fear of immigrants and fuels xenophobic feelings talking advantage of ignorance and fake news. The incoming demographic polarization does also signal the passage from a situation in which labour markets were affected by economic cyclical disequilibrium to a situation in which they will be affected by a demo-economic structural disequilibrium. This new situation calls for an integrated demo-economic modeling and the use of coordinated sets of demographic and economic measures.
    Keywords: J11 ; J2 ; J61 ; ddc:330 ; migration, labour market ; demographic transition ; demographic polarization ; structural shortage of labour ; structural excess of labour
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    Maastricht: Global Labor Organization (GLO)
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: According to the National Household Survey (ENAHO), approximately three out of four employment relationships within the formal sector of the Peruvian economy are based on temporary contracts. This percentage is larger than that of any OECD country and also considerably larger to that of any other country of the Latin American region. This study aims to elucidate the role that the 2001 labor reform played on these results and the effect this has had on variables associated to Peruvian workers’ well-being. To this end, we exploit the information on contract type and start date (identified by the employment duration), which are reported on the household surveys, to analyze the decision between using fixed-term contracts or indefinite-term contracts. The average impact obtained from a differences-in-differences estimation with matching, having workers with contract but with no health insurance as a control group, is a reduction of 41 percent in the probability of having contracts of indefinite duration in the short term (up to five years after the reform), whereas the long-term impact has been a drop by 70 percent. These results are consistent, and similarly large, as those found in a model of simple differences controlling for workers’ characteristics, firms and economic context. The results are robust to placebo tests and estimations by activity sectors and firm size. These results mean that, due to the reform, by 2015 over 900,000 jobs that could have been of indefinite-term were fixed-term contracts instead. Estimates based on Mincer equations suggest that this meant a loss of around 1.5 billion dollars in workers' labor income in 2015. Also, 36,000 workers would have affiliated to a union, had such reform not been implemented. These figures suggest than, instead of increasing workers’ protection, the reform implemented by the Constitutional Court left a large portion of them unprotected.
    Keywords: K31 ; J63 ; C52 ; ddc:330 ; employment protection ; labor reform ; impact evaluation
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    Göttingen: Universität Göttingen, Research Training Group (RTG) 1666 - GlobalFood
    Publication Date: 2019-01-17
    Description: Productivity and efficiency are key performance indicators of improved seeds. Efficiency differences explain part of the variation in productivity. Improved seeds may affect efficiency because farmers often do not apply inputs at optimum. Improved seeds therefore not only directly affect productivity but also indirectly through efficiency. If productivity and efficiency are not estimated jointly, it creates specification problems and it may (over)underestimate benefits of crop improvement research. Previous studies however estimate the productivity and efficiency impacts of improved seeds independently. In this paper, we estimate the joint impact of improved maize seeds on productivity and efficiency using panel data from maize farmers in Ethiopia. Selection biases associated with seeds choice are addressed by estimating production functions using endogenous switching regressions. Our findings show that improved seeds bring productivity and efficiency gains relative to recycled seeds suggesting that the benefits of improved seeds are underestimated by the amount of productivity (efficiency) gains if either of the two are ignored. Unsurprisingly, improved seeds are more productive than traditional seeds, but tradeoffs between productivity and efficiency exist because farmers are less efficient when they use improved seeds than traditional seeds. Our results may inform policy makers to design strategies that could increase productivity at most efficiency.
    Keywords: D22