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  • Articles  (25)
  • earthquake swarms  (13)
  • climate change  (12)
  • Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying  (25)
  • 11
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; deterministichydrological model ; sub-arctic watershed ; Canada
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Watershed runoff modelling techniques were developed and applied for assessing climatic impacts, and tested for a watershed in the Northeast Pond River basin using atmospheric-change scenarios from a series of hypothetical scenarios. Results of this research strongly suggest that possible changes in temperature and precipitation caused by increases in atmospheric trace-gas concentrations could have major impacts on both the timing and magnitude of runoff and soil moisture in important natural resources areas. Of particular importance are predicted patterns of summer soil-moisture drying that are consistent across the entire range of tested scenarios. The decreases in summer soil moisture range from 10 to 50% for different scenarios. In addition, consistent changes were observed in the timing of runoff – specifically dramatic increases in winter runoff and decreases in summer runoff. These hydrologic results raise the possibility of major environmental and socio-economic difficulties and they will have significant implications for future water-resource planning and management.
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water resources management 13 (1999), S. 369-382 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; general circulation models ; hydrological models.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract Global atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been developed to simulate the present climate and used to predict future climatic change. While GCMs demonstrate significant skill at the continental and hemispheric spatial scales and incorporate a large proportion of the complexity of the global system, they are inherently unable to represent local subgrid-scale features and dynamics. The existing gap and the methodologies for narrowing the gap between GCMs' ability and the need of hydrological modelers are reviewed in this paper. Following the discussion of the advantages and deficiencies of various methods, the challenges for future studies of the hydrological impacts of climate change are identified.
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 137-156 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate adaptation ; climate change ; droughtmanagement ; England and Wales water supply
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract In this article, the relationship between U.K. watercompanies' perceptions of past climatic extremes andtheir effect on resilience to future climatic changeis explored. Perceptions and activities related topast and future dry periods was investigated throughinterviews with managers at the ten major English andWelsh water supply/sewerage companies, and severalsmaller, water-only companies. Several of thecompanies report that they have observed a trendtowards drier summers in their regions, and a number of companies say that they have observed a changetowards more intensive rainfall of shorter duration. Recent supply measures in a number of regions havebeen aimed at improving storage and distributionrelated to the perceived change in rainfall intensity.A new requirement to incorporate regional climatechange scenarios in future supply assumptions appearsto have had little impact on planning in the region todate. Many water resource planners believe that thescenarios generated are too aggregated and do notencourage a precautionary approach to planning. Somemanagers believe that records of historical droughtconditions, such as experienced in 1933/1934 or 1995/1996,as worst-case scenarios provide a better basis for planning.
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water resources management 7 (1993), S. 273-287 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: Sacramento model ; rainfall-runoff ; time series ; precipitation ; air temperature ; evapotranspiration ; runoff changes ; climate change ; soil moisture
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The Sacramento rainfall-runoff model has been used in experiments with 60 year daily series for the Czech part of the Labe River basin; simulations with decreased and/or increased inputs (precipitations, air temperature, evapotranspiration) provide results that could be used to appraise the runoff changes due to climatic warming. Simulations with the modified parameters are used for evaluation of runoff changes caused by landuse changes. For both purposes, the long-term data sets appear to be desirable; it is then possible to take into account ‘accidental’ influences. The simulations also provide, as an output, the water contents in different zones of soil moisture; the relationships among evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and baseflow clearly appear in these results.
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water resources management 10 (1996), S. 463-478 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; reservoir operation ; streamflow generation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract The potential impacts of changing climatic conditions on the operational performance of water resource systems was investigated in this paper. A multi-site streamflow generation model was used to synthesize potential monthly flow sequences reflecting two different sets of climatic conditions. The generated data were subsequently employed as input to a reservoir operation model that was used to determine the reservoir response to the inflow resulting from the implementation of the reservoir operating policy. The performance of an example reservoir system, the Shellmouth Reservoir located in the Canadian province of Manitoba, was evaluated and compared for the two sets of conditions. The operational performance was evaluated in terms of the reliability of the system for meeting the three purposes of the actual reservoir. The reservoir performance was determined to be sensitive to the inflow data. The results indicate that climatic change has potentially important implications for the operation of the example reservoir system.
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  • 16
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Water resources management 14 (2000), S. 177-189 
    ISSN: 1573-1650
    Keywords: climate change ; Sweden ; water balance models ; water resources
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geography
    Notes: Abstract This article describes investigationsinto the effects of climate change on flow regimes oftwenty-five catchments (from 6 to 1293 km2) incentral Sweden. Hydrological responses of fifteenhypothetical climate change scenarios (e.g.combinations of ΔT = +1, +2 and +4 °C andΔP = 0, ± 10%, ± 20%) were simulated by a conceptual monthly water balance model. The results suggest thatall the hypothetical climate change scenarios wouldcause major decreases in winter snow accumulation.Significant increase of winter flow and decrease ofspring and summer runoff were resulted from mostscenarios. Attendant changes in actualevapotranspiration were also examined for all climatechange scenarios. Despite the changes in seasonaldistribution of evapotranspiration, the change inannual total evapotranspiration was relatively smallwith the maximum change of 23% compared with the 76%for mean annual snow water equivalent changes and 52%for mean annual runoff changes. Such hydrologicresults would have significant implications on futurewater resources design and management.
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  • 17
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Studia geophysica et geodaetica 41 (1997), S. 225-246 
    ISSN: 1573-1626
    Keywords: climate change ; borehole temperature ; ground and air temperature
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Borehole temperatures in the central and south Urals were analysed for the past ground surface temperature (GST) signal. 31 highquality temperature logs were selected for this purpose and inverted with algorithms based on the generalised least squares theory. The signal to noise ratio was improved by averaging the results of individual borehole inversions. No distinct regional trends were found in the studied region except for some indications of more pronounced warming in the south. The mean GST history (GSTH) was characterised by cooling down to −0.6 °C in the 18th century and subsequent warming to 0.5 °C above the longterm mean at the beginning of this century, and to 1 – 1.5 °C by 1980. The stability of the mean GSTH was tested in dependence on the number of holes used for the averaging. It showed that any subset of 15 holes yielded a GSTH similar to that obtained from the whole set. A surface air temperature (SAT) time series comprising the period 1832 – 1989 was combined from 17 meteorological records. Its least squares warming rate of 1.1 °C per 100 years is somewhat higher than that of the GST (0.7 – 0.8°C/100 years) in the same period.
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  • 18
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Studia geophysica et geodaetica 41 (1997), S. 319-328 
    ISSN: 1573-1626
    Keywords: earthquake swarms ; surface deformations ; GPS ; precise levelling
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract The western part of the Bohemian Massif is characterized by repeated occurrences of intraplate earthquake swarms. To study surface deformations of this anomalous region, a network covering about 2000 square kilometres for repeated geodetic measurements was established in 1993 - 1994. The positions of the individual points of the network were carefully picked with respect to local tectonic structure and earthquake foci distribution. GPS and precise levelling measurements were performed 1-2 times a year. The GPS data were processed by Bernese GPS software. No tendency to any displacement - either horizontal or vertical - of geological blocks was derived from the geodetic data for the period 1993 - 96. Only displacements of less than 5 mm/year in average could occur in the whole region in that period; larger displacements would have been revealed by our measurements.
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  • 19
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Studia geophysica et geodaetica 44 (2000), S. 126-141 
    ISSN: 1573-1626
    Keywords: Vogtland/Western Bohemia ; earthquake swarms ; focal mechanismsm ; stress field
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract We calculated focal mechanisms for 30 of the strongest events (1.5 ≤ M L ≤ 3.3) in distinct subregions of Vogtland/Western Bohemia between 1990 and 1998. Our investigations are concerned with events of the swarms near Bad Elster (1991), Haingrün (1991), Nový Kostel (1994 and 1997) and Zwickau (1998), two events from a group of earthquakes near Klingenthal (1997) and eight single events. Seismograms were provided by the digital station networks of the Geophysical Observatory of the University of Munich, the Technical University of Freiberg, the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic in Prague, the Masaryk University in Brno and some nearby stations of the German Regional Seismic Network (GRSN). To calculate focal mechanisms two inversion methods were applied. The inferred focal mechanisms do not show a simple, uniform pattern of seismic dislocation. All possible dislocation types – strike-slip, normal and thrust faulting - are represented. The prevailing mechanisms are normal and strike-slip faulting. Considerable differences in the fault plane solutions are noted for the individual subregions as well as in some cases among the individual events of a single swarm. For the Nový Kostel area we succeeded to resolve a change in the orientations of the nodal planes for the two successive swarms of December 1994 and January 1997. Besides this we also observe a change in the mechanisms, namely from strike-slip and normal faulting (December 1994) to strike-slip and thrust faulting (January 1997). Based on the inferred focal mechanisms the stress field was estimated. It turned out, that the dominating stress field in the region Vogtland/Western Bohemia does not substantially differ from the known stress field of West and Central Europe, being characterized by a SE-NW direction of the maximum compressive horizontal stress. We conclude that the seismicity in the Vogtland/Western Bohemia region is not predominantly caused by an independent local stress field, but rather controlled by the dominating stress regime in Central Europe.
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  • 20
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Springer
    Studia geophysica et geodaetica 43 (1999), S. 201-222 
    ISSN: 1573-1626
    Keywords: climate change ; GCM-based scenarios ; daily series of extreme and mean temperatures ; global radiation ; precipitation
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Architecture, Civil Engineering, Surveying , Geosciences , Physics
    Notes: Abstract Three-dimensional general circulation models (GCMs) are 'state-of-the-art' tools for projecting possible changes in climate. Scenarios constructed for the Czech Republic are based on daily outputs of the ECHAM-GCM in the central European region. Essential findings, derived from validating, procedures are summarized and changes in variables between the control and perturbed experiments are examined. The resulting findings have been used in selecting the most proper methods of generating climate change projections for assessing possible hydrological and agricultural impacts of climate change in selected exposure units. The following weather variables have been studied: Daily extreme temperatures, daily mean temperature, daily sum of global solar radiation, and daily precipitation amounts. Due to some discrepancies revealed, the temperature series for changed climate conditions (2×CO 2 ) have been created with the help of temperature differences between the control and perturbed runs, and the precipitation series have been derived from an incremental scenario based on an intercomparison of the GCMs' precipitation performance in the region. Solar radiation simulated by the ECHAM was not available and, therefore, it was generated using regression techniques relating monthly means of daily extreme temperatures and global radiation sums. The scenarios published in the paper consist of monthly means of all temperatures, their standard deviations, and monthly means of solar radiation and precipitation amounts. Daily weather series, the necessary input to impact models, are created (i) by the additive or multiplicative modification of observed weather daily series or (ii) by generating synthetic time series with the help of a weather generator whose parameters have been modified in accord with the suggested climate change scenarios.
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