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  • Artikel  (255)
  • climate change  (131)
  • air pollution  (74)
  • Energy  (51)
  • Energietechnik  (255)
  • Philosophie  (5)
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  • 101
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 271-280 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; atmospheric change ; atmospheric stressors ; biodiversity ; ecosystem risk
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Overall, the greatest threats to Canadian and global biodiversity are associated with conversions of natural ecosystems to anthropogenic ones, and over-exploitation of biological resources. This circumstance does not, however, trivialize the importance of atmospheric influences. Although scientific understanding of the risks is incomplete, it is nevertheless clear that anthropogenic changes in atmospheric stressors are potentially damaging to biodiversity and other ecological values over medium- and longer-term scales. It is important that greater investments be made in support of longer-term monitoring and research designed to understand the effects of atmospheric and other environmental stressors on the biodiversity and structure and function of Canadian ecosystems.
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  • 102
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental modeling and assessment 3 (1998), S. 63-74 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; impact integrated assessment modeling
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract The paper provides an overview of attempts to represent climate change impact in over twenty integrated assessment models (IAMs) of climate change. Focusing on policy optimization IAMs, the paper critically compares modeling solutions, discusses alternatives and outlines important areas for improvement. Perhaps the most crucial area of improvement concerns the dynamic representation of impact, where more credible functional forms need to be developed to express time‐dependent damage as a function of changing socio‐economic circumstances, vulnerability, degree of adaptation, and the speed as well as the absolute level of climate change.
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  • 103
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental modeling and assessment 4 (1999), S. 1-12 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Schlagwort(e): Integrated Assessment ; participation ; focus groups ; modeling tools ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Participatory Integrated Assessment (PIA) is an approach which aims at developing methods which allow to combine evaluations of experts and lay people in the field of Integrated Assessment. Thus, policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are informed by scientific judgments and by valuations of “non-scientists”. For any PIA methodology the provision of insights, facts and figures about the policy problem at hand is crucial. In this paper we describe a PIA methodology which combines the social science research instrument “focus group” with a specific computer information tool, the “Personal CO2 Calculator” (PCC). The tool supports citizens in discussing and recommending measures on climate change policy. Based on our experiences, we plead for information instruments that are tuned to and assist concrete target groups with their specific interests. This helps that policy recommendations derived from PIA exercises are based on both scientific knowledge as well as citizens' and stakeholders' policy preferences.
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  • 104
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental and ecological statistics 2 (1995), S. 191-212 
    ISSN: 1573-3009
    Schlagwort(e): multivariate interpolation ; kriging ; respiratory morbidity ; air pollution ; sulphates ; nitrates ; ozone ; Ontario Health Study ; environmental monitoring
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract We demonstrate a recently developed spatial interpolation methodology in a study of the chronic effects of air pollution on respiratory morbidity. Our study uses data from the Ontario Health Study, a large survey of households in Ontario conducted for the province by Statistics Canada. The interpolation procedure imputes unobserved vectors of air pollution concentrations for individual Public Health Units, from those observed at a few fixed air pollution monitoring sites. We use logistic regression methods to assess the significance of air pollution levels based on the imputed values after modelling the relationship between binary health responses and assorted covariates such as measures of life style. Our findings prove negative; no significant relationship between chronic respiratory morbidity and air pollution is found. The imputation methodology is seen to be promising and might well be used in other such analyses.
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  • 105
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Journal of agricultural and environmental ethics 5 (1992), S. 113-146 
    ISSN: 1573-322X
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; food ; agriculture ; ethics ; technologies
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Gartenbau, Fischereiwirtschaft, Hauswirtschaft , Philosophie
    Notizen: Abstract Burning fossil fuel in the North American continent contributes more to the CO2 global warming problem than in any other continent. The resulting climate changes are expected to alter food production. The overall changes in temperature, moisture, carbon dioxide, insect pests, plant pathogens, and weeds associated with global warming are projected to reduce food production in North America. However, in Africa, the projected slight rise in rainfall is encouraging, especially since Africa already suffers from severe shortages of rainfall. For all regions, a reduction in fossil fuel burning is vital. Adoption of sound ecological resource management, especially soil and water conservation and the prevention of deforestation, is important. Together, these steps will benefit agriculture, the environment, farmers, and society as a whole.
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  • 106
    ISSN: 1573-1642
    Schlagwort(e): urban forests ; urban ecology ; urban climate ; hydroclimate ; air pollution ; energy conservation ; carbon removal ; benefit-cost analysis
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Architektur, Bauingenieurwesen, Vermessung , Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper is a review of research in Chicago that linked analyses of vegetation structure with forest functions and values. During 1991, the regions trees removed an estimated 5575 metric tons of air pollutants, providing air cleansing worth 9.2 million. Each year they sequester an estimated 315 800 metric tons of carbon. Increasing tree cover 10% or planting about three trees per building lot saves annual heating and cooling costs by an estimated 50 to 90 per dwelling unit because of increased shade, lower summertime air temperatures, and reduced neighborhood wind speeds once the trees mature. The net present value of the services trees provide is estimated as 402 per planted tree. The present value of long-term benefits is more than twice the present value of costs.
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  • 107
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 15 (2000), S. 135-148 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; overlapping generations models
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract The artifice of an infinitely-lived representative agent iscommonly invoked to balance the present costs and future benefitsof climate stabilization policies. Since actual economies arepopulated by overlapping generations of finite-lived persons,this approach begs important questions of welfare aggregation.This paper compares the results of representative agent andoverlapping generations models that are numerically calibratedbased on standard assumptions regarding climate--economyinteractions. Under two social choice rules -- Pareto efficiencyand classical utilitarianism -- the models generate closelysimilar simulation results. In the absence of policies toredistribute income between present and future generations,efficient rates of carbon dioxide emissions abatement rise from15 to 20% between the years 2000 and 2105. Under classicalutilitarianism, in contrast, optimal control rates rise from 48 to 79% this same period.
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  • 108
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 11 (1998), S. 301-315 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; cost-benefit analysis ; decision criterion ; discount rate ; weight factors ; JEL classification: D61, D62, D63
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract Although the greenhouse effect is by many considered as one of the most serious environmental problems, several economic studies of the greenhouse effect, most notably Nordhaus's DICE model, suggest that it is optimal to allow the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) to increase by a factor of three over the next century. Other studies have found that substantial reductions can be justified on economic grounds. This paper explores into the reasons for these differences and identifies four (partly overlapping) crucial issues that have to be dealt with when analysing the economics of the greenhouse effect: low-probability but catastrophic events; cost evaluation methods; the choice of discount rate; the choice of decision criterion. The paper shows that (i) these aspects are crucial for the policy conclusions drawn from models of the economics of climate change, and that (ii) ethical choices have to be made for each of these issues. This fact needs wider recognition since economics is very often perceived as a value neutral tool that can be used to provide policy makers with “optimal” policies.
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  • 109
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 12 (1998), S. 1-24 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; CGE models ; comparative impacts ; poverty
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract The impact of global climate change on developing countries is analyzed using CGE-multimarket models for three archetype economies representing the poor cereal importing nations of Africa, Asia, and Latin America. The objective is to compare the effects of climate change on the macroeconomic performance, sectoral resource allocation, and household welfare across continents. Simulations help identify those underlying structural features of economies which are the primary determinants of differential impacts; these are suggestive of policy instruments to countervail undesirable effects. Results show that all these countries will potentially suffer income and production losses. However, Africa, with its low substitution possibilities between imported and domestic foods, fares worst in terms of income losses and the drop in consumption of low income households. Countervailing policies to mitigate negative effects should focus on integration in the international market and the production of food crops in Africa, and on the production of export crops in Latin America and Asia.
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  • 110
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 109-123 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Schlagwort(e): economic development ; industrial composition ; pollution havens ; air pollution
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper examines the impact on air pollution ofchanges in the composition of manufacturing output indeveloped and developing countries. Pollutionemissions from manufacturing output are estimated ina manner which holds constant the effect of technologyand regulations allowing the impact of compositional changes alone on pollution to beestimated. The paper has three main findings; (1) theinverted-U estimated between per capita income and thepollution intensity of GDP arises due to both thecomposition of manufacturing becoming cleaner and theshare of manufacturing output in GDP falling.Compositional changes alone are not responsible forthe inverted-U between per capita income and percapita emissions; (2) changes to the composition ofmanufacturing output are consistent with the pollutionhaven hypothesis, however there is clear evidence thatrising per capita incomes are associated with afalling income elasticity of demand for `dirty'products. This fact may explain the compositionalchanges that occur with development; (3) in additionto the income elasticity effect, the analysis suggeststhat land prices and to a lesser extent the prices oflabour and capital, determine the proportion of dirtyindustry within a country's manufacturing sector.
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  • 111
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 145-156 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Schlagwort(e): transport ; air pollution ; greenhouse gasses ; externalities ; fuel efficiency of cars ; cost-effectiveness
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper surveys some recent studies on conventional air pollution and climate change in the transport sector in Europe. Fuel efficiency standards, car emission standards and transport pricing instruments are analysed from an economic perspective taking into account environmental and economic efficiency objectives.
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  • 112
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 331-338 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; mountain agriculture ; tourism ; participatory integrated assessment ; focus groups
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Winter tourism and mountain agriculture are the most important economic sectors in a major part of the Swiss Alps. Both are highly sensitive to changing climatic conditions. In the framework of the CLEAR project, results from climate impact research in the field of tourism and agricultural production were used to investigate the perception of climatic change by stakeholders and to assess possible adaptations. We used a participatory integrated assessment (PIA) to involve the knowledge, values and experiences of the various social actors in tourism and agriculture (e.g., skiers, tourism managers, farmers) in the research process. Whereas climate change may have various severe direct impacts on the tourism industry, depending on the region, agricultural production may generally benefit from changed climatic conditions. But because of the dependence of farmers on “off-farm” income, the loss due to declining winter tourism in specific areas may cause more important indirect effects. However, the two sectors may adapt actively by choosing from a variety of strategies, and the loss of income from the tourism industry may support the re-evaluation of the various functions agriculture plays in mountain regions, beyond the production of food. The study demonstrates the suitability of the PIA approach to elucidate the interactions between different stakeholders and their perception of the climate change phenomena. A similar participatory approach could be a useful tool to transfer research results and expert knowledge to the political process addressing adaptations to climate change.
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  • 113
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental and resource economics 17 (2000), S. 163-181 
    ISSN: 1573-1502
    Schlagwort(e): carbon emissions inequality ; climate change ; global warming
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper analyzes future carbon emissions inequality using a group decomposition of the Gini index. Business-as-usual projections to the year 2100 for 135 countries show inequality in per capita emissions declines slowly. Next, the impact on emissions levels and inequality of the Kyoto Protocol and other abatement proposals for Annex II countries in 2010 are measured, with a focus on the gap-narrowing and reranking effects. Substantial reranking of per capita emissions between Annex II and non-Annex II countries will not occur unless the former reduce their emissions by at least 50% (versus 1990 levels) and the latter continue growing unabated.
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  • 114
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Integrated assessment 1 (2000), S. 127-136 
    ISSN: 1573-1545
    Schlagwort(e): integrated assessments ; climate change ; discounting ; equity ; climate policy
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A standard framework is presented as an underlying model for the discounting debate. Views and proposals for the techniques and rates of discounting are assessed. Alternative modeling frameworks for studying intergenerational equity issues are evaluated with the result that the basic insights they provide do not differ very much. Results from model experiments involving different discount rate proposals show that fudging the discount rate does not lead to efficient climate policy. Three major clusters of opinions are identified regarding the applicability of cost-benefit analysis to the climate change problem and the appropriate discount rate to use. It is concluded that under some very special circumstances the cost-benefit rule should be abandoned and cost-effective strategies implying standard discount rates should be sought to reach clearly defined and justified environmental targets.
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  • 115
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1998), S. 337-358 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most cost-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportation mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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  • 116
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 2 (1997), S. 337-358 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; greenhouse gas emissions ; waste ; landfills ; mitigation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Waste management is a significant source of methane (CH4) emissions. CH4 is second to carbon dioxide (CO2) the most important anthropogenic greenhouse gas. In this article the methodology and results from a study on the reduction potential of alternative waste treatment strategies in mitigating the greenhouse impact are presented. The objective is to provide information to decision makers so that the greenhouse issue can be included in the decision making on waste management strategies. The potential cost-effectiveness of reducing the greenhouse impact of alternative waste treatment strategies in three communities of different size in Finland is assessed. The estimation of the greenhouse impact includes estimates of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, the amount of carbon (C) stored at landfills (Csink) and the emission savings that can be achieved by using waste for energy production (assumed decrease in the use of fossil fuels). Landfill gas recovery with energy production was found to be the most-efficient way in reducing the greenhouse impact from large landfills. Burning of all the waste or the combustible fraction in municipal solid waste (MSW) was also an efficient method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, especially if the energy produced can reduce the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions from transportation of waste are small compared with the emissions from landfills. Even if the transportion mileage is doubled due to increasing separation and recycling the greenhouse impact of transportation would be only 3–4 percent of the impact of landfilling the waste.
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  • 117
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 343-381 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): carbon dioxide emissions ; climate change ; climate change mitigation ; emission scenarios ; greenhouse gas emissions ; land-use emissions ; methane emissions ; nitrous oxide emissions
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Land-use emissions of greenhouse gases make up over one-third of current total anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and about three-quarters of the total anthropogenic emissions of CH4 and N2O. Considering their contribution to global emissions, it is important to understand their future trends in order to anticipate and mitigate climate change. This paper reviews published scenarios of major categories of these emissions with the aim to provide background information for the development of new scenarios. These categories include CO2 from deforestation, CH4 from rice cultivation, CH4 from enteric fermentation of cattle, and N2O from fertilizer application. Base year estimates of all these categories varied greatly from reference to reference, and hence emissions of all scenarios were normalized relative to their 1990 value before being compared to one another. The range of published scenarios of CO2 emissions from deforestation is widest around the middle of the 21st century and then all scenarios converge to low values towards 2100. By contrast, the different scenarios of CH4 and N2O diverge with time, showing their widest range in 2100. Global emissions of CH4 from rice cultivation vary by a factor of three in 2100 and N2O from fertilized soils by a factor of 2.3. Emissions of CH4 from enteric fermentation of animals have the smallest range (factor of 2.0). The typical long-range trends of land-use emission scenarios vary greatly from region to region - they stabilize in industrialized regions after a few decades, but tend to stabilize later in developing regions or continue to grow throughout the 21st century. To improve the realism of the estimates of future trends of land-use emissions, it is especially important to improve the estimation of the future extent of agricultural land and the rate of deforestation, while taking into account significant driving forces such as the demand for agricultural commodities and crop yields.
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  • 118
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 321-341 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; emissions scenarios ; methane emissions
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Evidence from the atmosphere indicates that global emissions of methane may have been broadly constant since the early 1980s or growing only slowly. This suggests that whilst emissions from some sources may have increased with increased activity, emissions from other sources may have gone down. This is supported by evidence and analysis from the individual emission sectors which show declining emission rates in some cases. This paper reviews the factors that might affect emissions in the future from different sources and has been written as an aid to the development of new scenarios for greenhouse gas emission for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The analysis indicates that there could be additional uncertainty in future emissions but that, overall, future emissions might plausibly be lower than previously projected.
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  • 119
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    Digitale Medien
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 133-170 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; environment ; fertility rates ; greenhouse gas emissions scenarios ; IIASA ; IPAT ; IPCC ; IS92 ; population ; population projections ; United Nations ; U.S. Census Bureau ; World Bank
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract A survey is made of the latest world population projections issued by the United Nations, World Bank, U.S. Census Bureau, and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Medium variants from all the organizations show excellent agreement with respect to many features of future world population growth. It appears that little would be gained by obtaining additional regional projections made by governments or organizations other than those listed above. In general, the new range of population projections that are candidates for forthcoming IPCC emissions scenarios are narrower and lower than the previous IPCC IS92 population range: a reflection of updated information on the decline of fertility rates in developing countries and the incorporation of a plausible correlation between mortality rates and fertility rates within the IIASA ‘rapid’ and ‘slow’ demographic transition variants. Comments are made on the schematic approach of forecasting CO2 emissions using multiplicative identities such as ‘IPAT’ (impact/emissions = population × affluence × technology). Although the unqualified IPAT model suggests that emissions should scale linearly with population, a number of caveats to this exist, the most important of which may be factor interactions. A brief review is made of conventional thinking about interactions between population growth and economic development. Correlation studies and theory suggest that population growth has a neutral or, at most, weak negative effect on economic growth. Conversely, it is well established that higher per capita incomes are well correlated with lower fertility and mortality rates in developing countries. Therefore, a plausible first-order relationship worth exploring in the next generation of IPCC scenarios is that scenarios with higher average economic growth rates in the developing world should be associated with lower fertility and mortality rates there. Calculations are presented that illustrate the effect this negative correlation could have had on the range of the older IS92 emission scenarios, assuming that all other factors are unchanged. Finally, some policy issues concerning population and global warming are reviewed in connection with the IPCC’s omission of population policy discussion in its 1995 Second Assessment Report.
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  • 120
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 3 (1998), S. 171-230 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; emission scenarios ; energy resources ; fossil fuels ; nuclear power ; renewables ; energy conversion technologies ; fuel cells
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract A variety of energy sources will compete to provide the energy services that humans will require over the next 100 years. The balance of these sources will depend upon the availability of fossil fuels and the development of new technologies including renewable energy technologies, and will be one of the keys in projecting greenhouse gas emissions. There is uncertainty about each of the energy sources. With oil, for example, there are two alternate views of future reserves, one that reserves are geologically limited and that supplies will decline within a decade or two, the other that there are enormous quantities of hydrocarbon in the earth’s crust and that reserves are a function of developing technology and price. With solar voltaics, as a second example, there is optimism that the technology will become increasingly competitive, but there is uncertainty about the rate at which costs can come down and about ultimate cost levels. This paper reviews the reserves of fossil fuels and the prospects for nuclear power and the renewables. It also reviews the main energy conversion technologies that are available now or are expected to become increasingly available through time. However, it should be noted that, over a time horizon of 100 years, there may be quite radical changes in both production and conversion technologies that cannot be predicted and it is quite possible for some as yet unheard of technology to be developed and to transform the markets. The paper has been written to aid the development of new scenarios for the emission of greenhouse gases for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
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  • 121
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 61-81 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; cost-benefit ; Hungary ; integrated assessment ; mitigation ; pollution ; discount rate
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Few studies on measures for mitigation of damage caused by man-made emissions to the environment have tried to consider all major effects. We illustrate the importance of an integrated approach by estimating costs and benefits of a proposed energy saving program for Hungary, originally designed to reduce CO2 emissions. The dominant benefit of implementing the program is likely to be reduced health damage from local pollutants. Also reduced costs of material damage and to a lesser extent vegetation damage contribute to make the net benefit considerable. Compared to the reduction in these local and regional effects, the benefits from reducing greenhouse gases are likely to be minor. Since local effects in general occur much earlier after measures have been implemented than effects of increased emissions of greenhouse gases, inclusion of local effects makes evaluation of climate policy less dependent on the choice of discount rate. In our opinion, similar results are likely for many measures originally designed to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases particularly in some areas in developing countries with high local pollution levels. Main uncertainties in the analysis, e.g. in the relationships between damage and pollution level, are discussed.
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  • 122
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 1-23 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; concentration limits ; discounted control costs ; Kyoto Protocol
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Preliminary analysis based on an aggregate model of global carbon emissions suggests that constraining emissions to the levels that would be imposed by compliance with the results of the Kyoto negotiations can increase the discounted cost of ultimately limiting atmospheric concentrations. Kyoto targets can be either too restrictive or too permissive depending upon the (currently unknown) trajectory of carbon emissions over the near- to medium-term and the (as yet unspecified) concentration target that frames long-term policy. The discounted cost of meeting low concentration targets like 450 ppmv. is diminished by allowing large sinks and/or by imposing more restrictive near-term emissions benchmarks (even if only Annex B countries are bound by the Kyoto accord). Conversely, the cost of achieving high concentration targets like 650 ppmv. is diminished by disallowing sinks and/or by imposing less restrictive emissions benchmarks. Intermediate concentration targets like 550 ppmv. look like high concentration targets (favoring no sinks and expanded near-term emissions) along low emissions paths; but they look like low concentration targets (favoring the opposite) along high emissions paths. Emissions trajectories that lie above the median, but not excessively so, represent cases for which adjustments in the Kyoto emissions benchmarks and/or negotiated allowances for sinks have the smallest effect on the cost of mitigation.
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  • 123
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 25-41 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; agriculture ; climate change ; Kazakhstan
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Agriculture in Kazakhstan is sensitive to climate, and wheat yields could be reduced up to 70% under climate change. With the transition from a socialist economy to a free market economy, decisions are being made now that will affect Kazakhstan's ability to cope with climate change. A team of Kazakh and American researchers examined the cost-effectiveness and barriers to implementations of adaptation options for climate change. Twelve adaptation options that increase flexibility to respond to climate change were identified using a screening matrix. Four options, forecasting pest outbreaks, developing regional centers for preserving genetic diversity of seeds, supporting a transition to a free market, and reducing soil erosion through the use of changed farming practices, were examined. The Adaptation Decision Matrix (ADM) was then applied to estimate benefits using expert judgment (using an arbitrary numerical scale, not monetary values) and benefits estimates were compared to costs to determine cost-effectiveness. The ADM uses subjective measures of how well adaptation options meet policy objectives. Controlling soil erosion was estimated to have the highest benefits, but the high costs of implementation appears to make it relatively cost-ineffective. Supporting a transition to a free market was ranked as the most cost-effective measure, with regional centers second. However, use of different scales to quantify benefits or different weights can result in regional centers being more cost-effective than the transition to a free market. Regional centers was also judged to have fewer barriers to implementation than a transition to a free market. These results will be incorporated in Kazakhstan's National Action Plan. The ADM and other tools are relatively easy to apply, but are quite subjective and difficult to evaluate. The tools can be quite useful by decision makers to analyze advantages and disadvantages between different adaptation options, but should be supplemented with additional, particularly quantitative analysis.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 137-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; agriculture ; climate change ; decision-making ; variability
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This work presents a framework for viewing agricultural adaptation, emphasizing the multiple spatial and temporal scales on which individuals and institutions process information on changes in their environment. The framework is offered as a means to gain perspective on the role of climate variability and change in agricultural adaptation, and developed for a case study of Australian agriculture. To study adaptation issues at the scale of individual farms we developed a simple modelling framework. The model highlights the decision making element of adaptation in light of uncertainty, and underscores the importance of decision information related to climate variability. Model results show that the assumption of perfect information for farmers systematically overpredicts adaptive performance. The results also suggest that farmers who make tactical planting decisions on the basis of historical climate information are outperformed by those who use even moderately successful seasonal forecast information. Analysis at continental scales highlights the prominent role of the decline in economic operating conditions on Australian agriculture. Examples from segments of the agricultural industry in Australia are given to illustrate the importance of appropriate scale attribution in adapting to environmental changes. In particular, adaptations oriented toward short time scale changes in the farming environment (droughts, market fluctuations) can be limited in their efficacy by constraints imposed by broad changes in the soil/water base and economic environment occuring over longer time scales. The case study also makes the point that adaptation must be defined in reference to some goal, which is ultimately a social and political exercise. Overall, this study highlights the importance of allowing more complexity (limited information, risk aversion, cross-scale interactions, mis-attribution of cause and effect, background context, identification of goals) in representing adaptation processes in climate change studies.
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  • 125
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 199-213 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; climate change ; impact assessment ; response options ; vulnerability
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This paper outlines what is meant by "adaptation" to climate change, and how it might be addressed in the IPCC Assessments. Two roles of adaptation in the climate change field are identified: adaptation as part of impact assessment (where the key question is: what adaptations are likely?), and adaptation as part of the policy response (where the central question is: what adaptations are recommended?). The concept of adaptation has been adopted in several fields including climate impact assessment and policy development, risk management, and natural hazards research. A framework for systematically defining adaptations is based on three questions: (i) adaptation to what? (ii) who or what adapts? and (iii) how does adaptation occur? The paper demonstrates that, for adaptation purposes, climate extremes and variability are integral parts of climate change, along with shifts in mean conditions. Attributes for differentiating adaptations include purposefulness, timing, temporal and spatial scope, effects, form and performance. The framework provides a guide for the treatment of adaptation in the IPCC assessments, both in the assessment of impacts and in the evaluation of adaptive policy options.
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  • 126
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 227-237 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; climate change ; climate variability ; data ; climate applications ; El Niño ; UNFCCC
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract An extensive foundation of high quality data and information on the climate and on the biological, environmental and social systems affected by climate is required in order to understand the climate impact processes involved, to develop new adaptation practices, and to subsequently implement these practices. Experience of the impacts of current and past variability of climate and sea level is a prime source of information. Many practices are in use to reduce climate impacts, for example in engineering design, agricultural risk management and climate prediction services, though their roles as adaptations to climate change are not widely appreciated. While there are good data sets on some factors and in some regions, in many cases the databases are inadequate and there are few data sets on adaptation-specific quantities such as vulnerability, resilience and adaptation effectiveness. Current international action under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) pays little attention to adaptation and its information requirements. Furthermore there are trends toward reduced data gathering and to restrictions on access to data sets, especially arising from cost and commercialisation pressures. To effectively respond to the changes in climate that are now inevitable, governments will need to more clearly identify adaptation as a central feature of climate change policy and make a renewed shared commitment to collecting and freely exchanging the necessary data.
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  • 127
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 239-252 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; coastal zones ; adaptation ; vulnerability ; IPCC Technical Guidelines
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This paper evaluates the IPCC Technical Guidelines for Assessing Climate Change Impacts and Adaptations with respect to the guidance offered for coastal-adaptation assessment. It appears that the IPCC Technical Guidelines focus strongly on implementation. This paper uses both conceptual and empirical information is used in this paper to show that coastal adaptation embraces more than selecting one of the "technical" options to respond to sea-level rise (retreat, accommodate or protect). Coastal adaptation is a more complex and iterative process with a series of policy cycles. To be effective, an expanded adapta-tion framework involving four steps is suggested, including (i) information collection and awareness raising; (ii) planning and design; (iii) implementation; and (iv) monitoring and evaluation. The incom-plete coverage of these four steps in existing coastal-adaptation assessments constrains the development of adaptation strategies that are supported by the relevant actors and integrated into existing management. Researchers and policy-makers are recommended to work together to establish a framework for adaptation that is integrated within current coastal management processes and practices and takes a broader view on the subject.
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  • 128
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 283-293 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): natural catastrophes ; climate change ; changing extremes ; costs of climate ; change ; insurance
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract In the last few decades, the international insurance industry has been confronted with a drastic increase in the scope and frequency of great natural disasters. The trend is primarily attributable to the continuing steady growth of the world population and the increasing concentration of people and economic values in urban areas. An additional factor is the global migration of populations and industries into areas such as coastal regions, which are particularly exposed to natural hazards. The natural hazards themselves, on the other hand, are showing a change for the worse as many atmospheric extremes are strongly influenced by global warming. In addition to the problems the insurance industry has with regard to pricing, capacity and loss reserves, the assessment of insured liabilities, preventive planning and the proper adjustment of catastrophe losses are gaining importance. The present problems will be dramatically aggravated if the greenhouse predictions come true. The changing probability distributions of many processes in the atmosphere will force up the frequency and severity of heat waves, droughts, bush fires, tropical and extratropical cyclones, tornados, hailstorms, floods and storm surges in many parts of the world with serious consequences for all types of property insurance, apart from the consequences of the stratospheric ozone destruction for health and life insurance. Rates will have to be raised and in certain areas insurance cover will only be available after considerable restrictions have been imposed, as for example significant deductibles and low liability or loss limits. In areas of high insurance density the loss potential of individual catastrophes can reach a level at which the national and international insurance industries will run into serious capacity problems. Recent disasters showed the disproportionately high participation of reinsurers in extreme disaster losses and the need for more risk transparency if the insurance industry is to fulfil its obligations in an increasingly hostile environment.
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  • 129
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 295-306 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): disasters ; storms ; floods ; droughts ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Extremes of climate and weather, storms, floods and droughts, require vigorous adaptation measures in a generally stable climate or in one that is rapidly changing. These adaptation measures, to reduce loss of life, human suffering and economic losses come under the heading "disaster loss mitigation". Since 1990 the United Nations' International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction has provided for international cooperation and information dissemination. Nevertheless, world-wide economic disaster losses in the 1990s have continued to show a rapid increase - and the increase for climate related disasters has been three to four times greater than those for geological disasters. Is some of this increased loss due to anthropogenic climate change? There is some evidence of increases in frequency of heavy rainfalls in a number of regions and of severe winter storms in the northern hemisphere. On the other hand, there is little global trend in frequency or intensity of tropical cyclones whose geographical distribution is more closely related to ENSO events. But is there a possibility that increases in intensity over the past few decades of El Niño and La Niña events are related to increased radiative forcing from greenhouse gases? Whatever the outcome of emerging research on extreme events in a changing climate, it is evident that climate adaptation through disaster mitigation measures is of increasing importance with growing populations in more vulnerable regions. Measures that must be supported vigorously include improved warning and preparedness systems, safer buildings, risk-averse land use planning, better protected urban infrastructure, and more resilient water supply systems, among others. Both national and international efforts must not be allowed to diminish after the end of the IDNDR in 1999. The task is only begun.
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  • 130
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 4 (1999), S. 343-361 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation ; climate change ; socioeconomic impacts ; Egypt
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Assessment of the vulnerability and expected socioeconomic losses over the Nile delta coast due to the impact of sea level rise is carried out in details. Impacts of sea level rise over the Governorates of Alexandria and Port Said in particular, are evaluated quantitatively. Analysis of the results at Alexandria Governorate indicate that, if no action is taken, an area of about 30% of the city will be lost due to inundation. Almost 2 million people will have to abandon their homeland; 195,000 jobs will be lost and an economic loss of over $3.5 Billion is expected over the next century. At Port Said Governorate results indicate that beach areas are most severely affected (hence tourism), followed by urban areas. The agriculture sector is the least affected sector. It is estimated that the economic loss is over $ 2.0 Billion for 0.50 m SLR and may exceed $ 4.4 Billion for 1.25 m SLR. Options and costs of adaptation are analyzed and presented. Multi-criteria and decision matrix approaches, based on questionnaire surveys are carried out to identify priorities for the two cases. Analysis of these techniques of two options; the current policy (hard protection measures on some vulnerable areas) and no action (stopping these activities) have the lowest scores. Beach nourishment and integrated coastal zone management (ICZM) have the highest scores, however ICZM has high cost measures. The most cost-effective option is the land-use change, however with relatively very high cost measure. It is recommended that an ICZM approach be adopted since it provides a reasonable trade off between costs and cost effectiveness.
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  • 131
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 361-377 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): carbon budget ; climate change ; desertification ; international environmental institutions ; land degradation ; research convergence ; science policy
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Poor knowledge of links between desertification and globalclimate change is limiting funding from the Global Environment Facility foranti-desertification projects and realization of synergies between theConvention to Combat Desertification (CCD) and the FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (FCCC). Greater convergence betweenresearch in the two fields could overcome these limitations, improve ourknowledge of desertification, and benefit four areas of global climate changestudies: mitigation assessment; accounting for land cover change in thecarbon budget; land surface-atmosphere interactions; and climate changeimpact forecasting. Convergence would be assisted if desertification weretreated more as a special case in dry areas of the global process of landdegradation, and stimulated by: (a) closer cooperation between the FCCCand CCD; (b) better informal networking between desertification and globalclimate change scientists, e.g. within the framework of theIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Both strategies wouldbe facilitated if the FCCC and CCD requested the IPCC to provide ascientific framework for realizing the synergies between them.
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  • 132
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 5 (2000), S. 379-406 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; Ethiopia ; historical analogy ; migration ; vulnerability
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Climate change has been presented as a likely trigger formigration of people, especially in dryland areas of less developed countries.The underlying research questions focus on the strength of adaptationcapacity of subsistence farmers in Northern Ethiopia, and evaluate historicalexperiences gained from drought-induced migration. Through a survey of104 peasants who had to migrant due to persistent drought, vulnerabilityto climate change has shown to be a complex issue, including themultiplicity of factors comprising a household environment. Still, to bevulnerable does not make someone a potential climate migrant, as peoplein marginal regions have developed a great variety of adaptationmechanisms, which strengthen their ability to cope with both, slow climaticchanges and extreme climatic events.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr-1 (Tg=teragram=1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr-1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr-1 to 8.3 Tg yr-1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr-1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr-1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr-1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr-1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5−17.6 Tg yr-1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
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  • 134
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
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  • 135
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 73-93 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; climate policy ; the Netherlands
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The development of an international climate policy builds on national policy perspectives. These depend on the perceived risks of climate change, socioeconomic and cultural characteristics of the nations and regions involved, and the technical feasibility of policy measures. Scientific and technological research supports the policy making process about these issues. The perspectives of the scientific community and the policy makers differ and as a consequence communication is often troublesome. The construction and utilization of knowledge under such circumstances can only be effective if all parties involved engage in a continuous dialogue about causes, effects, impacts and responses. This paper describes a project carried out in the Netherlands. It has as its major objective the articulation of a variety of perceptions and positions related to climate change. As a result of the project, policy actors produced five policy options and formulated research questions. The policy options are linked in the framework of a policy life cycle. Research questions focus on the risks of climate change and on feasible social, economic, cultural and technological responses to it. As to the policy options, striving for common means appears to be more promising than pursuing shared goals and philosophies.
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  • 136
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 51-71 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; Finland ; greenhouse gas inventory
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Guidelines of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were used to assess a greenhouse gas inventory for land use change and forestry in Finland. In 1952, managed forests represented a carbon (C) sink of 2.3 Tg yr−1 (Tg = teragram = 1012g) in terms of total biomass growth and drain, converted into respective biomass. In 1960, forests were a carbon source of 0.1 Tg C yr−1, but since 1970 the size of the forest C sink has increased from 0.5 Tg yr−1 to 8.3 Tg yr−1 in 1990. If the future use of the forest resources remains at the level of late 1980s, the size of forest C sink could increase to 14.2 Tg yr−1 by 2010 and to 24.9 Tg yr−1 by 2030. The maximum use of the forest resources could result in a 2.2 Tg yr−1 C source by 2010, and in a 0.8 Tg yr−1 source by 2030. The average annual C balance for the period 1991–2030 could amount to −0.5–17.6 Tg yr−1, depending on the use of forest resources. Carbon emissions related to forest drainage and soil preparation seem to be extremely uncertain, although they seem to have a potential to decrease the sinks substantially. On the other hand, taking roundwood import, and wood products more precisely, into consideration would increase the C sink. Changing climate may increase carbon accumulation in forests and affect the sink.
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  • 137
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 251-271 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): Greece ; maize ; climate change ; CO2 effects ; adaptation ; crop simulation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
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  • 138
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1996), S. 139-165 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): Adaptation ; agriculture ; agroforestry ; climate change ; drought ; ecological degradation ; factor bias ; Senegal ; sustainability ; social relations
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The ongoing drought in the Sahel region of West Africa highlights the vulnerability of food-producing systems to climate change and variability. Adaptation to climate should therefore increase the sustainability of agriculture under a long-term drought. Progress towards sustainability and adaptation in the the Senegal River Basin is hampered by an existing set of social and ecological relationships that define the control over the means of production and how people interact with their environment. These relationships are sensitive to the technological inputs and the administration of food production, or the factor bias in the different policy alternatives for rural development. One option is based on state-controlled, irrigated plantations to provide rice (Oryza) for the capital, Dakar. This policy emphasizes a top-down management approach, mechanized agriculture and a reliance on external inputs which strengthens the relationships introduced during the colonial period. A time series decomposition of the annual flow in the Senegal River at Bakel in Senegal suggests that water resources availability has been substantially curtailed since 1960, and a review of the water resources budget or availability in the basin suggests that this policy's food production system is not sustainable under the current climate of the basin. Under these conditions, this program is exacerbating existing problems of landscape degradation and desertification, which increases rural poverty. A natural resource management policy offers two adaptation strategies that favour decentralized management and a reduction of external inputs. The first alternative, “Les Perimetres Irrigués”, emphasizes village-scale irrigation, low water consumption cereal crops and traditional socio-political structures. The second alternative emphasizes farm-level irrigation and agro-forestry projects to redress the primary effects of desertification. The water requirements of both the rice import substitution program and the natural resource management program are calculated. A water resources simulation model/optimization analysis using dynamic programming is used to compare these two alternatives to the rice import substitution programs. Results indicate that the natural resource management policy could potentially bring a large area into production while using far less water than the rice import substitution program. The natural resource management policy, in particular the second alternative with its emphasis on individual ownership and ecological rehabiliation, defines a different set of social and ecological relationships that appear to enhance the sustainability of food production under a long-term drought.
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  • 139
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
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  • 140
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 273-288 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Spain ; wheat ; maize
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
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  • 141
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 219-232 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; mediterranean region ; agriculture ; cereal production ; impact assessment
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Current trends in Mediterranean agriculture reveal differences between the Northern and Southern Mediterranean countries as related to population growth, land and water use, and food supply and demand. The changes in temperature and precipitation predicted by general circulation models for the Mediterranean region will affect water availability and resource management, critically shaping the patterns of future crop production. Three companion papers analyze in detail future impacts of predicted climate change on wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and maize (Zea mays L.) production in Spain, Greece, and Egypt, and test farm- level adaptation strategies such as early planting and cultivar change with the aid of dynamic crop models. Strategies to improve the assessment of the potential effects of future climate change on agricultural production are discussed.
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  • 143
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 233-250 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; vulnerability ; adaption ; agriculture ; Egypt
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract If no timely measures are taken to adapt Egyptian agriculture to possible climate warming, the effects may be negative and serious. Egypt appears to be particularly vulnerable to climate change because of its dependence on the Nile River as the primary water source, its large traditional agricultural base, and its long coastline, already undergoing both intensifying development and erosion. A simulation study characterized potential yield and water use efficiency decreases on two reference crops in the main agricultural regions with possible future climatic variation, even when the beneficial effects of increased CO2 were taken into account. On-farm adaptation techniques which imply no additional cost to the agricultural system, did not compensate for the yield losses with the warmer climate or improve the crop water-use efficiency. Economic adjustments such as the improvement of the overall water-use efficiency of the agricultural system, soil drainage and conservation, land management, and crop alternatives are essential. If appropriate measures are taken, negative effects of climate change in agricultural production and other major resource sectors (water and land) may be lessened.
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  • 144
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 273-288 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; vulnerability ; adaptation ; agriculture ; Spain ; wheat ; maize
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract This study evaluates the theoretical impact of climate change on yields and water use of two crops with different responses to increased CO2 and which represent contrasting agricultural systems in Spain. In all cases the simulated effects of a CO2-induced climate change depended on the counteracting effects between higher daily ET rates, shortening of crop growth duration and changes in precipitation patterns as well as the simulated effects of CO2 on the water use efficiency of the crops. For summer irrigated crops such as maize, the yield reductions and the exacerbated problems of irrigation water availability simulated with climate change may force the crop out of production in some regions. For winter dryland crops such as wheat, productivity increased significantly in some regions, suggesting a northward shift of area suitable for wheat production in future climates. The study considered strategies for improving the efficiency of water use based on the optimization of crop management decisions in a CO2-driven warmer climate.
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  • 145
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 251-271 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): Greece ; maize ; climate change ; CO2 effects ; adaptation ; crop simulation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract The potential impacts of climate change on the phenology and yield of two maize varieties in Greece were studied. Three sites representing the central and northern agricultural regions were selected: Karditsa, Naoussa and Xanthi. The CERES-Maize model, embedded in the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT 3.0), was used for the crop simulations, with current and possible future management practices. Equilibrium doubled CO2 climate change scenarios were derived from the GISS, GFDL, and UKMO general circulation models (GCMs); a transient scenario was developed from the GISS GCM transient run A. These scenarios predict consistent increases in air temperature, small increases in solar radiation and precipitation changes that vary considerably over the study regions in Greece. Physiological effects of CO2 on crop growth and yield were simulated. Under present management practices, the climate change scenarios generally resulted in decreases in maize yield due to reduced duration of the growing period at all sites. Adaptation analyses showed that mitigation of climate change effects may be achieved through earlier sowing dates and the use of new maize varieties. Varieties with higher kernel-filling rates, currently restricted to the central regions, could be extended to the northern regions of Greece. In the central regions, new maize varieties with longer grain-filling periods might be needed.
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  • 146
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 341-361 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): carbon dioxide ; climate change ; Climate Convention ; impact indicators ; crop production ; natural vegetation ; sea level rise ; stabilization of greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gas emissions
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO2 concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilizaton scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them.
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  • 147
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 341-361 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): carbon dioxide ; climate change ; Climate Convention ; impact indicators ; crop production ; natural vegetation ; sea level rise ; stabilization of greenhouse gases ; greenhouse gas emissions
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract Among the key issues of concern to the Climate Convention is the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations and the minimization of impacts to global agriculture, natural ecosystems and economic development. The purpose of this paper is to couple these issues in consistent, integrated scenarios, using the IMAGE 2.0 model as an integrating tool. Scenarios of gradual stabilization of atmospheric CO2 at 350 and 450 ppm are compared to a baseline of no policy action in which CO2 concentration increases to 777 ppm. Under the stabilization scenarios substantially smaller areas of wheat and millet, as well as nature reserves, are threatened by climate change, especially in temperate regions. The amount of sea level rise is also reduced under the stabilization scenarios. However, climate continues to change under the stabilization scenarios and therefore some ‘residual’ climate impacts occur. Hence the integrated scenarios indicate that stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations at or slightly above current levels will lessen impacts as compared to baseline levels, but not eliminate them.
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  • 148
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    Mitigation and adaptation strategies for global change 1 (1997), S. 311-339 
    ISSN: 1573-1596
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; CO2 ; carbondioxide ; integrated assessment ; MiniCAM ; LEESS ; top down ; bottom up ; sulfor ; energy ; emissions mitigation ; energy technology ; advanced energy technologies
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie
    Notizen: Abstract We report results from the application of an integrated assessment model, MiniCAM 1.0. The model is employed to explore the full range of climate change implications of the successful development of cost effective, advanced, energy technologies. These technologies are shown to have a profound effect on the future magnitude and rate of anthropogenic climate change. We find that the introduction of assumptions developed by a group of ‘bottom-up’ modelers for the LEESS scenarios into a ‘top-down’ model, the Edmonds-Reilly-Barns Model, leads to ‘top down’ emissions trajectories similar to those of the LEESS. The cumulative effect of advanced energy technologies is to reduce annual emissions from fossil fuel use to levels which stabilize atmospheric concentrations below 550 ppmv. While all energy technologies play roles, the introduction of advanced biomass energy production technology is particularly important. The consideration of all greenhouse related anthropogenic emissions, and in particular sulfur dioxide, is found to be important. We find that the consideration of sulfur dioxide emissions coupled to rapid reductions in carbon dioxide emissions leads to higher global mean temperatures prior to 2050 than in the reference case. This result is due to the short-term cooling impact of sulfate aerosols, which dominates the long-term warming impact of CO2 and CH4 in the years prior to 2050. We also show that damage calculations which use only mean global temperature and income may be underestimating damages by up to a factor of five. Disaggregating income reduces this to a factor of two, still a major error. Finally, the role of the discount rate is shown to be extraordinarily important to technology preference.
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  • 149
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    Natural hazards 16 (1997), S. 135-163 
    ISSN: 1573-0840
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; extreme events ; insurance
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik , Geographie , Geologie und Paläontologie
    Notizen: Abstract At the same time that a scientific consensus has arisen that the world will most likely experience a changing climate in the near future, with more frequent extreme events of some weather hazards, the insurance industry, worldwide, has been hit with rapidly escalating costs from weather-related disasters. This conjunction of scientific belief and economic impact has raised the questions as to (1) whether more frequent extreme events have contributed to the rising insurance costs and (2) how will future climate change affect the industry? Based upon historical data, it is difficult to support the hypothesis that the recent run of disasters both world-wide and in Canada are caused by climate change; more likely other factors such as increased wealth, urbanization, and population migration to vulnerable areas are of significance. It seems likely, though, that in the future some extreme events such as convective storms (causing heavy downpours, hail and tornadoes), drought and heat waves will result in increased costs to the industry, should the climate change as anticipated.
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  • 150
    ISSN: 1572-9729
    Schlagwort(e): decomposition ; litter mass loss ; climate ; climate change ; pine ; actual evapotranspiration
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Land- und Forstwirtschaft, Gartenbau, Fischereiwirtschaft, Hauswirtschaft
    Notizen: Abstract The purpose of this study was to relate regional variation in litter mass-loss rates (first year) in pine forests to climate across a large, continental-scale area. The variation in mass-loss rate was analyzed using 39 experimental sites spanning climatic regions from the subarctic to subtropical and Mediterranean: the latitudinal gradient ranged from 31 °N to 70 °N and may represent the the largest geographical area that has ever been sampled and observed for the purpose of studying biogeochemical processes. Because of unified site design and uniform laboratory procedures, data from all sites were directly comparable and permitted a determination of the relative influence of climateversus substrate quality viewed from the perspective of broad regional scales. Simple correlation applied to the entire data set indicated that annual actual evapotranspiration (AET) should be the leading climatic constraint on mass-loss rates (Radj 2 = 0.496). The combination of AET, average July temp. and average annual temp. could explain about 70% of the sites' variability on litter mass-loss. In an analysis of 23 Scots pine sites north of the Alps and Carpatians AET alone could account for about 65% of the variation and the addition of a substrate-quality variable was sufficiently significant to be used in a model. The influence of litter quality was introduced into a model, using data from 11 sites at which litter of different quality had been incubated. These sites are found in Germany, the Netherlands, Sweden and Finland. At any one site most ( ≫ 90%) of the variation in mass-loss rates could be explained by one of the litter-quality variables giving concentration of nitrogen, phosphorus or water solubles. However, even when these models included nitrogen or phosphorus even small changes in potential evapotranspiration resulted in large changes in early-phase decay rates. Further regional subdivision of the data set, resulted in a range of strength in the relationship between loss rate and climatic variables, from very weak in Central Europe to strong for the Scandinavian and Atlantic coast sites (Radj 2 = 0.912; AETversus litter mass loss). Much of the variation in observed loss rates could be related to continentalversus marine/Atlantic influences. Inland locations had mass-loss rates lower than should be expected on the basis of for example AET alone. Attempts to include seasonality variables were not successful. It is clear that either unknown errors and biases, or, unknown variables are causing these regional differences in response to climatic variables. Nevertheless these results show the powerful influence of climate as a control of the broad-scale geography of mass-loss rates and substrate quality at the stand level. Some of these relationships between mass-loss rate and climatic variables are among the highest ever reported, probably because of the care taken to select uniform sites and experimental methods. This suggest that superior, base line maps of predicted mass-loss rates could be produced using climatic data. These models should be useful to predict the changing equilibrium litter dynamics resulting from climatic change.
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  • 151
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    Human ecology 22 (1994), S. 1-22 
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; episodes ; radiation balance ; global change ; historical ecology
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Ethnologie
    Notizen: Abstract The articles in this special issue range across such influences on climate as solar emissions, orbital precession, atmosphere, oceans, and precipitation, and generally approach, each in some context, human implications of these phenomena. The common underlying theme of all of the papers is the effect the phenomena have on radiation balance as measured by global average temperature. This introductory paper undertakes a formulation of radiation balance theory that makes it serviceable to students of regional science. The objective is to go beyond inference of cause and effect by correlation to causal accounts of cause and effect through regional climatic and cultural processes. This is accomplished primarily by revisualization of the energy system with regions as dependent spatiotemporal entities, and temporally through a protocol for regional episode definition.
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  • 152
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    Human ecology 22 (1994), S. 23-35 
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Schlagwort(e): solar variation ; climate change ; global climate
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Ethnologie
    Notizen: Abstract Historical research at different time scales from 10s to 1000s of years suggests that solar variation may have influences on global climate. Climate change has had significant impacts on cultures during these periods. Very high solar output during the Medieval Optimum would be expected to have particularly large impacts on peoples of that time as sunspot numbers are thought to have reached one third again any values observed in the current century. Certain other impacts can be inferred from modern populations. For example, the higher parts of the solar cycle are associated with greater incidence of skin melanoma.
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  • 153
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    Human ecology 22 (1994), S. 115-128 
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; culture change ; models
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Ethnologie
    Notizen: Abstract In the last few decades, advances in understanding and modeling climate have paralleled the growth of an impressive log of radiocarbon dates and quantitative analyses of climatic indicators including pollen, tree rings, and lake levels. At the same time, archeological research has given us an impressive assemblage of cultural information. We also have the tools for sorting out the diverse sources of variance in our datasets. The time has come to begin to integrate these lines of scientific endeavor to produce a mutually coherent picture of at least one of the mechanisms that have affected the history of humankind, and one that undoubtedly will affect the future as well.
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  • 154
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    Human ecology 23 (1995), S. 259-284 
    ISSN: 1572-9915
    Schlagwort(e): South Africa ; urbanization ; hazards ; flood ; air pollution ; health ; human rights
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Biologie , Energietechnik , Ethnologie
    Notizen: Abstract Rapid and spatially concentrated urbanization in South Africa has brought with it significant health and safety hazards. These hazards are described and analyzed through two optics: environmental rights and community participation. The rights perspective suggests that the system of apartheid led to a collapse of rural livelihoods, driving people to the cities, while apartheid's tight control over African residential location and employment ensured that high density settlement and unemployment would follow. The resulting urban environmental degradation and health and safety hazards are a violation of the human rights of the African residents of townships and informal settlements. The community participation perspective suggests that reconstruction can be linked to development and that community-based hazard identification and mitigation can be a vehicle for kick-starting urban revitalization.
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  • 155
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 1677-1682 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): stand transpiration ; hydraulic architecture ; Pinus sylvestris L. ; air pollution
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract As part of a project studying the effects of massive reductions in the output of air pollutants in eastern Germany we monitored stand transpiration rates and water stress and analyzed the hydraulic architecture of Scots pine in three stands with different air pollution histories. Sap flow densities were continuously measured in 15 trees per stand with a thermoelectric method. The sap flow densities were scaled up to the stand transpiration rate via the conductive xylem area, which was measured with computer-tomography in the same trees. Radiation (PAR), humidity and temperature were monitored at three levels in the stands, water stress is assessed by predawn water potentials. As a parameter of hydraulic architecture we studied leaf specific conductivity (LSC). The proportion of the heartwood area did not significantly vary along the gradient of air pollution. The variation of sap flow densities within the stands was large. The ratios of sap flow densities in the inner and outer xylem were site-specific and significantly different between the stands. In the stand with the highest rate of air pollution there was a sharp decline in the sap flow densities towards the heartwood. Stand transpiration in the site with the lowest pollution was significantly higher than in the two more polluted sites. LSC in 2 years old twigs was significantly higher in the low pollution stand. In the dry summer of 1994 predawn water potentials fell to extreme values of below 1.6 MPa. At that stage transpiration ceased until the next substantial rainfalls.
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  • 156
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; deposition ; emission ; mine industry ; precipitation ; soil water ; sulphur dioxide
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract The Kostomuksha mining complex in Russian Karelia is a major emission point source surrounded by large forest areas near the Finnish border. The sulphur dioxide emissions of the complex are almost 60 000 tonnes and dust emissions about 5 000 tonnes a year. Research into the effects of emissions on the surrounding forests were started in a Finnish-Russian co-operation project in 1992. Deposition measurements during the two first years indicate that the effects of the emissions extend about 30 km to the west of the complex. The annual sulphur deposition near the mining complex has been about 300 mg/m2 in bulk precipitation and about 500 mg/m2 in throughfall. Sulphur emissions sometimes extend the eastern parts of Finland, but there the deposition is clearly smaller than near to the mining complex. The high calcium emissions neutralize the acidifying effect of sulphur near to the mine and smelter. The iron concentration in precipitation also increased near the complex. Sulphur and calcium decreased in percolation water on moving westwards.
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  • 157
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): Decision support system ; optimization ; air pollution ; sulphur ; critical load
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) is being developed for Her Majesty's Inspectorate of Pollution (HMIP). It enables the investigation of the spatial implications of different operating procedures from large point sources of pollution. The environmental effect of emissions is assessed using the critical loads methodology developed at ITE and modelled deposition “footprints”. This approach allows an “effect per unit emission” or “pollution potential” to be determined for each source. Individual sources are modelled and included within the SDSS if their current emissions are above a given threshold. The SDSS provides a graphical user interface (GUI) which facilitates a fast, efficient and effective means to specify and to examine the effect of different operating policies. Mapping, statistical and optimization facilities are provided to help describe the effect of any specified strategy. Maps may be produced as deposition rates or exceedance values. Statistics may be visualised as histograms and scatter plots. The optimization facility uses linear programming to minimise the total environmental impact (estimated from emissions and critical loads) or maximise power produced within environmental limits. The SDSS has been written in the Arc/Info Macro Language (AML) and provides an invisible interface with standard GIS facilities and programmes written in “C”.
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  • 158
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 2707-2712 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): Stone deterioration ; dry deposition ; air pollution ; calcareous stones ; field test ; laboratory test
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Dry deposition of gases plays an important role for the deterioration of stone materials and a better understanding of the processes involved will improve our ability to maintain stone monuments and buildings. As a part of an EU-project an investigation with four calcareous stone types have been exposed outdoor at two test sites in Norway for two years. The exposure has been carried out in sheltered position and the amount of reaction products and the penetration depth of SO2 into the stones was determined as soluble sulphate after half a year and after one and two years. Even if most of the sulphate was found in the upper 0.3 mm of the stone, there was an increase in the sulphate content in stone even down to the center of the stone sample. In laboratory tests with SO2, NO2 and changing relative humidity the synergistic effect of NO2 and the importance of the relative humidity was investigated. The uptake rates were calculated from the laboratory studies by analyzing the gas concentrations before and after the exposure chamber. By calculating the deposition velocity from the field study by using the amount of sulphate found in the stones together with the average outdoor concentration of SO2 at the test sites, the values were a magnitude higher than in the laboratory test, highest at the industrial paper mill sites with high concentrations both of SO2 and some hypochlorite and lower in urban atmosphere with fairly low values of SO2 and high values of NO2.
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  • 159
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 2051-2056 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): acidification ; air pollution ; air pollution modelling
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A long-term modelling (1991–1994) of oxidised sulphur, bound nitrogen and some heavy metals has been carried out by MSC-E/EMEP for the Northern Hemisphere. The transport unit of the model is an Eulerian scheme which could be classified as Pseudo-Lagrangian one. Vertical distribution described by means of Gaussian approximation and the exchange with the free troposphere are taken into account. Vertical movement is calculated proceeding from local mixing conditions, state of the surface, its height (topography) etc. The chemical unit for acid compounds contains 25 reactions and 14 compounds including sulphur and nitrogen compounds peroxyacetylnitrate, tropospheric ozone, volatile hydrocarbons (but methane) are considered as a whole via ozone creation potential. The model time step is 1 hour, meteorological data (winds, temperature, precipitation etc.) cover 6-hour intervals. The model results show that very significant part of the Arctic and West Asian acid pollution is produced by European countries. On the whole the Arctic pollution by SOx, NOx and NHx comes from sources of Old World. The main source of sulphur pollution is located in Russia and of nitrogen compound — in Central and Northern Europe. About 50% SOx, 70% NOx and 40% NHx deposition in Central Asia and Kazakhstan is-imported from external sources. A similar situation is observed in European and Asian parts of Russia.
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  • 160
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    Water, air & soil pollution 85 (1995), S. 2071-2076 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; industrial emissions ; sulphur dioxide ; heavy metal aerosols ; contamination of precipitation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract The results of investigations carried out in the forests of Kola peninsula subject to long-term air pollution by the nickel industrial enterprises are presented. Samples of rainwater from the open sites, from under the coniferous (pine) trees crowns and of the stemflow were collected at various distances from the emission sources. The highest levels in pollution of rainwater are detected over the area adjacent to the smelters. Researches of contamination of the precipitation in the vicinity of the two nickel enterprises of Kola peninsula show that concentrations of pollutants vary significantly (up to an order of magnitude) depending upon the meteorological conditions. The area of impact on forests of Kola peninsula is restricted by the radius of 30–40 km from the emission sources.
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  • 161
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    Water, air & soil pollution 98 (1997), S. 381-387 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; bioindicator ; biomonitoring ; tree bark
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract During a two year research period from 1992 to 1993, samples of different species of trees were taken in 17 forest stands located in Navarra, Spain. From these samples, bark extracts were prepared in which the pH and the conductivity were measured. The health of the sampling trees was also evaluated by determining the degree of defoliation and decoloration of the canopies. The bark tissue analysis revealed the presence of an environmental acidity gradient that decreased from NW to SE. This coincides with the location of important sources of pollution and their course of transport and dispersion. On the other hand, in the samples ofQuercus ilex a significant correlation between the pH and the defoliation levels (P≤0.01, r=0.62) was found. This fact reveals the potential usefulness of tree bark as a health bioindicator of trees.
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  • 162
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    Water, air & soil pollution 93 (1997), S. 395-408 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; pine bark ; sulphur ; pH ; conductivity ; heavy metals
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Sulphur and heavy metal deposition in northern Finland (= in Lapland) and the Kola Peninsulawere surveyed using Scots pine bark samples. Sulphur concentrations in bark close to the Kolasmelters were on an average twice as high as on the Finnish side of the border. The Cu and Niconcentrations near the smelters were almost 100-fold the mean values in northern Finland. Therewas a marked decrease in the sulphur and heavy metal concentrations with increasing distancefrom the emission sources. The effects of emissions from the Kola Peninsula were evident inFinland only close to the border, especially in the eastern parts of Inari (NE corner of Lapland)where the Cu and Ni concentrations were 2- to 6-fold those in western Lapland. The sulphur andheavy metal concentrations in most of northern Finland were low. However were theconcentrations of Cr in bark in the SW corner of Lapland considerably high, due to the emissionsfrom the Tornio refined steel plants.
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  • 163
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    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 309-320 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): carbon budget ; forest ecosystem ; wood products ; forest management ; carbon sequestration ; climate change
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Flows of carbon (C) in the forest ecosystem were simulated with a gap-phase dynamics type model, while flows of C in wood products were simulated using a model that processes raw material into final products. In southern Finland, the ratio between gross production and total storage for the 500 year period was 3052–3572 Mg C ha−1: 192–223 Mg C ha−1 under the current climate and 4257–5096 Mg C ha−1: 260–318 Mg C ha−1 under the predicted changing climate. In northern Finland, the respective ratios were 1721–2021 Mg C ha−1: 103–134 Mg C ha−1 and 3409–4475 Mg C ha−1: 212–244 Mg C ha−1. The average total C storage in southern Finland over the 500 year period was 174–181 Mg C ha−1 under the current climate, and 206–217 Mg C ha−1 under the changing climate. In northern Finland, average total storage was 101 Mg C ha−1 under the current climate, and 191–198 Mg C ha−1 under the changing climate. The average C storages in unmanaged forest ecosystems under the current climate and under changing climate were 200 and 191 Mg C ha−1 respectively in southern Finland, and 142 and 193 Mg C ha−1 in northern Finland. Approximately 27–43% of total C was stored in wood products over a 500 year period. Wood products contributed 15–22% of the total emissions to the atmosphere. Over short periods, C sequestration potentials are much greater than over longer periods.
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  • 164
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    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 391-400 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; drought ; evapotranspiration ; Populus tremuloides ; prairie-forest boundary
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Predicted future changes in regional climate under a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations were applied to the 1951–80 normals of 254 climate stations to examine future impacts on the boreal forest of western Canada. Previous analyses have indicated that in this region, the southern boreal forest is presently restricted to areas where annual precipitation (P) exceeds potential evapotranspiration (PET). The present analysis suggests that a predicted 11% increase in P would be insufficient to offset the increases in PET resulting from a predicted warming of 4–5°C. As a result, half of the western Canadian boreal forest could be exposed to a drier climate similar to the present aspen parkland zone (P 〈 PET), where conifers are generally absent and aspen is restricted to patches of stunted trees interspersed with grassland. Future changes could result in permanent losses of forest cover following disturbance and an increase in the proportion of exposed edge habitat in remaining stands, where environmental conditions might induce additional stresses on tree growth. Thus if the predicted warming and drying occurs, productivity of aspen and other commercial species in the southern boreal forest would be greatly reduced.
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  • 165
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): Alberta ; British Columbia ; climate change ; chilling requirement ; coniferous forests ; frost tolerance ; gap model ; temperature response ; succession ; ZELIG
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract We enhanced the forest patch model, Zelig, to explore the implications of 2×CO2 climate change scenarios on several forest regions in British Columbia and Alberta, Canada. In addition to the processes and phenomena commonly represented in individual-based models of forest stand dynamics, we added some species-specific phenology and site-specific frost events. The consideration of bud-break heat sum requirements, growing season limits, and chilling requirements for the induction of dormancy and cold hardiness slightly improved the ability of Zelig to predict the present composition of B.C. forests. Simulations of the predicted effects of future climatic regimes (based on the averaged predictions of four general circulation models) include some major shifts in equilibrial forest composition and productivity. Lowland temperate coastal forests are predicted to be severely stressed because indigenous species will no longer have their winter chilling requirements met. High-elevation coastal forests are expected to increase in productivity, while interior subalpine forests are expected to remain stable in productivity but will gradually be replaced by species currently characteristic of lower elevations. Dry, interior low-elevation forests in southern B.C. are likely to persist relatively unchanged, while wet interior forests are expected to support dramatic increases in yield, primarily by western hemlock. Northern interior sub-boreal forests are likewise expected to increase in productivity through enhanced growth of lodgepole pine. Conversely, the precipitous collapse of spruce stands in the true boreal forests of northeastern B.C. is expected to be associated with reduced productivity as they are replaced by pine species. Boreal-Cordilleran and Moist Boreal Mixedwood forests in Alberta are less likely to undergo compositional change, while becoming somewhat more productive. We believe these model enhancements to be a significant improvement over existing formulations, but the resulting predictions must still be viewed with caution. Model limitations include: (1) the current inability of climate models to predict future variation in monthly temperature and precipitation; (2) sparse information on the phenological behaviour of several important tree species; and (3) a poor understanding of the degree to which growth is constrained by different suboptimal climatic events.
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  • 166
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    Water, air & soil pollution 82 (1995), S. 437-444 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): boreal forest ; wildfire ; climate change ; GCM
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Although an increasing frequency of forest fires has been suggested as a consequence of global warming, there are no empirical data that have shown climatically driven increases in fire frequency since the warming that has followed the end of the “Little Ice Age” (∼1850). In fact, a 300-year fire history (AD 1688–1988) from the Lac Duparquet area (48°28′N, 79°17′W) shows a significant decrease both in the number and extent of fires starting 100 years ago during a period of warming. To explore this relationship between climatic change and fire frequency we used daily data from the Canadian Atmospheric Environment Service's General Circulation Model to calculate components of the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index (FWI) System for the 1xCO2 and 2xCO2 scenarios. The average FWI over much of eastern Canada, including the Lac Duparquet region, decreased under the 2xCO2 simulation, whereas FWI increased dramatically over western Canada. According to these results, fire frequency would decrease over the southeastern boreal forest which is in agreement with the empirical data from the fire history. Our results stress the importance of large regional variability and call into question previous generalisations suggesting universal increases in the rate of disturbance with climate warming.
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  • 167
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    Water, air & soil pollution 98 (1997), S. 381-387 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; bioindicator ; biomonitoring ; tree bark
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract During a two year research period from 1992 to 1993, samples of different species of trees were taken in 17 forest stands located in Navarra, Spain. From these samples, bark extracts were prepared in which the pH and the conductivity were measured. The health of the sampling trees was also evaluated by determining the degree of defoliation and decoloration of the canopies. The bark tissue analysis revealed the presence of an environmental acidity gradient that decreased from NW to SE. This coincides with the location of important sources of pollution and their course of transport and dispersion. On the other hand, in the samples of Quercus ilex a significant correlation between the pH and the defoliation levels (P≤0.01, r = 0.62) was found. This fact reveals the potential usefulness of tree bark as a health bioindicator of trees.
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  • 168
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 62 (2000), S. 175-191 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; biomonitoring ; O3
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A group of 50 inexperienced scorers were asked to estimate –using standard reference photos – foliar injury induced by the gas pollutant ozone on the supersensitive indicator planttobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) cv. Bel-W3. Theaverage accuracy level was 56.1% (95.9% when theclasses nearest to the reality were also consideredcorrect) and the average repeatability was 65.4%. Theextreme classes were easily scored. Central classesproved to be more difficult to be evaluated: this maydepend on the fact that two leaves may have similaractual total injured area, but substantially differentnumbers and spatial distribution of the lesions. Insome cases we observed a prevalence of overestimationerrors in the high classes and underestimation in thelow classes: this is in contradiction with theWeber-Fechner law. It is noteworthy the very shorttime required by operators to score, regardless of the results.
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  • 169
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 64 (2000), S. 81-91 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; air quality ; monitoring network ; mountainous regions ; multi-scale assessment ; spatial and temporal scales ; tropospheric ozone
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A quantitatively robust yet parsimonious air-quality monitoring network in mountainous regions requires special attention to relevant spatial and temporal scales of measurement and inference. The design of monitoring networks should focus on the objectives required by public agencies, namely: 1) determine if some threshold has been exceeded (e.g., for regulatory purposes), and 2) identify spatial patterns and temporal trends (e.g., to protect natural resources). A short-term, multi-scale assessment to quantify spatial variability in air quality is a valuable asset in designing a network, in conjunction with an evaluation of existing data and simulation-model output. A recent assessment in Washington state (USA) quantified spatial variability in tropospheric ozone distribution ranging from a single watershed to the western third of the state. Spatial and temporal coherence in ozone exposure modified by predictable elevational relationships (∼ 1.3 ppbv ozone per 100 m elevation gain) extends from urban areas to the crest of the Cascade Range. This suggests that a sparse network of permanent analyzers is sufficient at all spatial scales, with the option of periodic intensive measurements to validate network design. It is imperative that agencies cooperate in the design of monitoring networks in mountainous regions to optimize data collection and financial efficiencies.
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  • 170
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 65 (2000), S. 425-433 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): PM10 ; urban air quality ; background ; NAME ; ADMS ; long range transport ; air pollution ; particulates ; nitrogen dioxide ; sulphur dioxide
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Norwich is the eastern most city in the United Kingdom. Despite a population of only 100,000 and very little local industry, studies have shown that the city experiences levels of nitrogen dioxide, ozone, particulates and sulphur dioxide exceeding the UK Air Quality Standards. Because of Norwich's situation within a large, predominantly rural area a large non-resident workforce is one factor that contributes to large, often very congested traffic flows. The city's location close to the European mainland also exposes it to polluted airmasses transported from the continent, especially in the case of particulates and ozone. In order to assess the relative contributions of local and regional sources, data from rural and urban monitoring sites are to be used in conjunction with ADMS-Urban and the UK Meteorological Office's NAME model.
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  • 171
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 65 (2000), S. 181-189 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; Computer Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods ; environment modelling ; atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) ; turbulence ; stable-stratified atmosphere ; complex terrain
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Different urban air pollution problems deal with complex structure of air flows and turbulence. For such problems the Computer Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods become widely used. However, this approach despite a number of advantages has some problems. Experience of use of CFD tools for development of models and suggestions of their applications for a local scale air pollution over a complex terrain and stable stratification are discussed in this paper, including: • Topography and complex geometry: choose of the co-ordinate system and computer grid; • Turbulence closure for air pollution modelling: modified k-ε model for stable stratified ABL; • Boundary conditions for vertical profiles of velocity for stable-stratified atmosphere; • Effects of the radiation and thermal budget of inclined surfaces to dispersion of pollutants; • Artificial sources of air dynamics and circulation. Some examples of CFD applications for air pollution modelling for a flat terrain, mountainous area, mining open cast and indoor ventilation are discussed. Modified k-ε model for stably-stratified ABL is suggested. Due to the isotropic character of the k-ε model a combination of it in vertical with the sub-grid turbulence closure in horizontal can be more suitable for ABL. An effective scheme of boundary conditions for velocity profiles, based on the developed similarity theory for stable-stratified ABL, is suggested. Alongside with the common studies of atmospheric dispersion, the CFD methods have also demonstrated a good potential for studying anthropogenic and artificial-ventilation sources of air dynamic and circulation in local-scale processes of air pollution.
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  • 172
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 65 (2000), S. 381-387 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; model ; guideline ; automobile ; concentrations ; MLuS ; STREET ; PROKAS ; MISKAM ; AIR-EIA
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract The draft of the German guideline to calculate automobile exhaust dispersion is explained. It contains a two-stage-system: For first quick estimates the guideline contains the simple models MLuS and STREET. In case these models are not applicable or their results shows concentration levels close to the air quality standards, the more complex models PROKAS_V and MISKAM are recommended. PROKAS_V is a Gaussian plume model, MISKAM is a 3-dimensional microscale non hydrostatic flow model for built-up areas with an Eulerian dispersion model. The guideline comprises cases in rural areas without or with few adjacent buildings as well as urban areas with buildings near the roads. The contribution gives information about the models, typical results and some of the problems showing up presently.
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  • 173
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 2 (1997), S. 129-137 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Schlagwort(e): integrated health risk assessment ; mathematical modelling ; global environmental change ; climate change ; scenarios ; human health ; epidemiology
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Estimating the future health impact of global environmental change requires scientific methods that extend beyond conventional health risk assessment in relation to existing exposures. The dynamic and non‐linear nature of these changes in large complex biophysical systems, the interactions between them, and the reference to future scenarios all contribute uncertainty. Potential health impacts can be estimated from historical analogues, by mathematical modelling, or by reasonable foresight (especially in relation to social and economic disruptions). Integrated assessment methods draw upon all these techniques. In particular, integrated mathematical modelling techniques are evolving, as scientists (and policy‐makers) come to terms with this complex scenario‐based impact assessment task.
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  • 174
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    Environmental modeling and assessment 5 (2000), S. 157-168 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; crops ; carbon dioxide ; economic welfare
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Increasing concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide CO2 have a beneficial effect on crop production that would tend to offset some of the economic losses that might be generated in some areas by the climatic effects of atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Previous estimates of the economic benefits of CO2 fertilization on world crop production, however, were based on the assumption that percent changes in supply are equal to percent changes in yield. This assumption is not valid, however, because it confounds changes in supply with changes in quantity supplied. This error leads to an overestimation of the real economic benefits of CO2 fertilization by 61–166%. The effects of CO2 fertilization on crop production, therefore, will reduce some of the potential damages caused by the climatic impacts of greenhouse gases, but by significantly less than that indicated in earlier research.
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  • 175
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    Water, air & soil pollution 95 (1997), S. 75-85 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): Pb ; Cu ; Zn ; trace metal pollution ; air pollution ; Ap horizon ; forest soils
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract In this study, we used once-plowed lands that have returned to forest for over 50 years to study the vertical distribution of meteorologically-deposited lead. These mineral soils were an essentially homogeneous 20 cm-thick layer when last plowed. As such, they were effectively a “clean slate” upon which pollutants deposited since the last plowing can be measured without the confounding aspects of well-developed natural soil horizons and the spatial heterogeneity of native forest soils. The concentration and amount of lead as well as copper and zinc, biologically active metals, were measured at five sites in New England. In the mineral soil, copper content ranged from 25 mg cm depth−1 m−2 at 0–2 cm depth to 37 mg cm depth−1 m−2 at 6–8 cm depth, but showed no consistent pattern with depth at all sites. Zinc concentrations and amounts increased with depth in the mineral soil to 14 μg g−1 and 167 mg cm depth−1 m−2, respectively. In contrast, lead showed a decrease with depth from 350 mg cm depth−1 m−2 at 0–2 cm depth to 102–108 mg cm depth−1 m−2 between 10 and 20 cm depth. At all five sites, decreases in lead concentration with depth were correlated with decreases in the amount of organic mater. Amounts of total lead deposited since the abandonment from plowing have been estimated at 1.4 g m-2 in rural sites. Thirty-five percent of this presumably anthropogenically-derived lead was in the forest floor; the remaining 65 % was in the upper mineral soil.
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  • 176
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
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    Water, air & soil pollution 95 (1997), S. 75-85 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): Pb ; Cu ; Zn ; trace metal pollution ; air pollution ; Ap horizon ; forest soils
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract In this study, we used once-plowed lands that have returned to forest for over 50 years to study the vertical distribution of meteorologically-deposited lead. These mineral soils were an essentially homogeneous 20 cm-thick layer when last plowed. As such, they were effectively a “clean slate” upon which pollutants deposited since the last plowing can be measured without the confounding aspects of well-developed natural soil horizons and the spatial heterogeneity of native forest soils. The concentration and amount of lead as well as copper and zinc, biologically active metals, were measured at five sites in New England. In the mineral soil, copper content ranged from 25 mg cm depth-1 m-2 at 0–2 cm depth to 37 mg cm depth-1 m-2 at 6–8 cm depth, but showed no consistent pattern with depth at all sites. Zinc concentrations and amounts increased with depth in the mineral soil to 14 μg g-1 and 167 mg cm depth-1 m-2, respectively. In contrast, lead showed a decrease with depth from 350 mg cm depth-1 m-2 at 0–2 cm depth to 102–108 mg cm depth-1 m-2 between 10 and 20 cm depth. At all five sites, decreases in lead concentration with depth were correlated with decreases in the amount of organic mater. Amounts of total lead deposited since the abandonment from plowing have been estimated at 1.4 g m-2 in rural sites. Thirty-five percent of this presumably anthropogenically-derived lead was in the forest floor; the remaining 65% was in the upper mineral soil.
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  • 177
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 157-168 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): biodiversity ; carbon storage ; climate change ; conservation ; creative destruction ; ecological succession ; ecosystem stability ; Holling figure-eight ; nitrogen ; resilience
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Holling proposed a four-phase conceptual model of ecosystem dynamics that includes exploitation, conservation, and destructive and renewal components to explain the failure of many natural resource management schemes. The model is drawn as a sideways figure-eight i.e. ∞. There are two dimensions in this model, connectivity (abscissa) and the amount of capital stored in the system (ordinate). This conceptual model has been suggested as a guide to thinking about the impact of climate change on biodiversity, but the two dimensions are insufficient and the alignment of the figure-eight model is problematic when compared with actual data. Kay has adjusted the dimensions of the figure-eight model and renamed the abscissa as exergy stored and the ordinate as exergy consumed. We realign the original figure-eight model, labeling the abscissa as carbon stored and the ordinate as nutrients, such that the relative values of both axes are in qualitative agreement with data from four different studies. This new alignment is then shown to fit relatively well with Holling's original labels. This revision of the figure-eight model brings Holling's model into agreement with observations and provides insight into the linkages between biodiversity and climate change.
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  • 178
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 48 (1997), S. 125-137 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; critical levels ; critical loads ; forestdamage assessment ; industrial emissions ; sulphur deposition
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A method of calculation of sulphur deposition values on forests subjectto long-term industrial influence is presented. Investigations wereconducted in the vicinities of nickel smelters of Kola peninsula. Sulphurdioxide (SO2) is the major phytotoxicant emitted by theseenterprises. Depositions of sulphur were calculated on the basis of ground air layer pollution. To determine it a mathematical model was applied.Field surveys of forest ecosystems response to air contamination werecarried out and areas of different forest damage degree were identified.More than 4300 km2 of the territory of Kola peninsula isunder the impact of nickel enterprises. Average SO2concentration over the area of slight damage to forests is about 20µg/m3. It corresponds to the critical level proposed for forest ecosystems (UN ECE, 1993). Sulphur deposition over thearea of slight damage varies from 0.6 to 1.0 g/m2yr-1 for coniferous forests. For deciduous forests it isabout 1.0 g/m2 yr-1. These values are close totarget loads for highly sensitive ecosystems (Nilsson et al., 1991), but they exceed critical loads for the northern regions of Europe (Downing etal., 1993).
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  • 179
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 56 (1999), S. 51-74 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): aircraft emissions ; climate change ; emission inventories ; greenhouse gases
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract The impact of air traffic on the global atmosphere is characterised by a high degree of uncertainty, concerning both the physico-chemical phenomena involved and the extent of the forcing due to anthropogenic emissions. The different effects of these emissions (e.g. on climate change, stratospheric ozone depletion, acidification, tropospheric ozone formation) are dealt with by different international bodies and conventions (e.g. IPCC, EMEP. . .) which are trying to define a standard methodology allowing countries to evaluate their contributions to global aircraft emissions and to report these figures in a standardised way. The paper compares different methodologies proposed by the joint EMEP/CORINAIR 'Atmospheric Emission Inventory Guidebook' for estimating aircraft emissions. Adjustments to these methodologies have been proposed, in order to integrate some additional data such as the total amount of flight hours per aircraft type or fuel consumption per trip. In case detailed information is not available, we recommend the use of a VERY SIMPLE methodology which may yield acceptable results, provided that every country makes adequate assumptions on the average aircraft type.
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  • 180
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 56 (1999), S. 113-128 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; coastal erosion ; GIS ; Mediterranean coast ; Nile delta ; remote sensing
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract An assessment of the impact of sea level rise on the city of Port Said, Egypt has been carried out using remote sensing and GIS techniques. Bruun's is used to estimate horizontal retreat, due to three scenarios of sea level rise, taking into account local subsidence rates. Overlaying horizontal retreat on land use obtained by remote sensing enabled us to estimate possible losses and socio-economic impacts. Results indicate serious physical and socio-economic impacts. It is suggested that protection measures must be carried out with emphasis on building breakwaters along the most vulnerable shoreline area.
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  • 181
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; indirect and direct gradient analysis ; vegetation monitoring
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract The area along the Norwegian-Russian border is threatened by air pollution from emission sources on the Kola Peninsula. A permanent network of 78 systematically chosen monitoring sites has been established in eastern Finnmark, Norway. Species abundance data from the ground vegetation have been recorded from 1320 systematically chosen permanent plots inside 66 of these sites, using frequency in subplots and visual estimates of percentage cover. Environmental variables were obtained for the whole site. Multivariate data analysis has been used to describe the variation in the species composition and to study its relation to environmental variables and pollution impact. The analyses show that much of the variation in the species composition, based on average species abundance at the sites, is well explained by different soil and climatic conditions. However, estimated SO2 deposition, Ni, and Cu in the soil, and Ni in Cladina tissue have also been found to be statistically significantly correlated with the variation in the species data, but they explain only a minor part of the variation. The pollution impact over several years may have lead to a reduced lichen cover in the bottom-layer vegetation. Further development in an either negative or positive direction can be detected by re-investigations of the monitoring sites.
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  • 182
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 133-144 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation scenarios ; climate change ; agriculture ; Poland
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper demonstrates the ability of Polish agriculture to adapt to predicted climate change according to GISS and GFDL scenarios. Both climate-change scenarios will significantly affect farming conditions in Poland through water deficit, shifts in planting and harvesting seasons, changes in crop yields and crop structure. Neither scenario seems to endanger the self-sufficiency of Poland as long as preventative measures are taken. Moreover, the realization of GISS creates the possibility of a surplus in production. It must be emphasized that regardless of the scenario, the adaptation of agriculture to an expected climate change cannot be handled by the farming community itself.
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  • 183
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 161-166 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): adaptation measures ; water resources ; climate change ; Central Asia
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A large part of the Central Asian region is located within the inner flow of the Aral Sea basin. The water resources are formed from renewed superficial and underground waters of natural origin, and also with returnable waters. The intensive increase of water intake, that took place in the second half of the twentieth century caused practically complete assimilation of the river inflow. That was the main reason for the Aral Sea crisis. On the basis of the analysis of long periodical rows of observation by meterological and hydrological stations, the estimation of regional water resources and calculations of changes of some components of the hydrological cycle due to the expected climate changes are presented. Measures for adaptation in the southern part of the Aral Sea region are considered.
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  • 184
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    Environmental monitoring and assessment 61 (2000), S. 187-191 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): climate change ; adaptation ; water resources ; China
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract It is indicated that up to the year 2030, the annual average temperatures in China will increase by 0.88 to 1.2°C, with increments in the south less than in the north. Annual average precipitation would raise slightly, but the increment could be 4% in northeastern China. The increment of annual mean runoff could rise over 6% in the northeastern area, and decrease in the other regions 1.4 to 10.5%. The increased water shortage due to climate change could achieve 160 to 5090 million m3 in some areas of China. Financial loss due to the lack of water could reach 1300 million yuan, and up to 4400 million yuan in serious drought years in the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area.
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  • 185
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 62 (2000), S. 261-272 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): boreal forests ; climate change ; ecosystem theory ; nonlinear thermodynamics ; resource management
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Over the past two centuries progressive anthropogenicperturbations to natural, boreal forest-climateinteractions have contributed increasingly to awidespread transition from coniferous to deciduouslandscapes. This transition is associated withchanges, at boreal latitudes, in temperature,photosynthetic activity, atmospheric CO2 andspring snow cover. These signals convey thediminished capacity of boreal landscapes to store andcycle materials and energy.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 186
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; personal exposure monitoring ; children ; particulate matter ; seasons ; Scanning Electron Microscopy
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract The personal exposure of children aged 9 – 11 years to particulate matter (PM10 and PM2.5) was carried out between January and September 1997 in the London Borough of Barnet. Personal sampling along with home, garden and classroom microenvironmental monitoring was completed for all ten children. Each child was monitored for five days during winter, spring and summer. All children completed daily time activity diaries to provide information on any potential activities that could influence their exposure to particulate matter. Each evening a household activity questionnaire was also completed by the parents. Personal Environmental Monitors were used to sample personal exposure to PM10 and PM2.5. Harvard Impactors were used for the microenvironmental sampling of both size fractions. The children's mean personal exposure concentrations for PM10 during winter, spring and summer were 72, 54 and 35 µg/m3 respectively and for PM2.5 22, 17 and 18 µg/m3 respectively. In order to determine the potential sources of particulate matter, analysis of the Teflon filters has been undertaken. The physical characteristics of the particles have been identified using Scanning Electron Microscopy. The relationships between personal exposure concentrations and the different microenvironments will be discussed.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 187
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental modeling and assessment 3 (1998), S. 47-61 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; health effects ; social costs ; externalities ; integrated approach
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This study analyses health damages from particulate pollution and the corresponding social costs. The analyses, which are based on transferring dose–response functions to Norway, is made within an integrated approach, where the economic impacts of the health damages are handled separately from the non‐economic welfare effects. We find that the social costs of health damages in Oslo are significant, and that the non‐economic welfare effects clearly dominate the cost figure.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 188
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental modeling and assessment 5 (2000), S. 119-124 
    ISSN: 1573-2967
    Schlagwort(e): background air concentration ; point source ; diagnostic model ; air pollution
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper presents two simple methods for the estimation of the instantaneous background air pollution level in a study area around an emitting point source. The methods allow estimation of concentrations non-inclusive of the contribution of the local emitting source. Hourly records of several monitoring stations located around the point source and results of the diagnostic Lagrangian particle dispersion model LADISMO are used in the calculations. A hypothetical case study is used to demonstrate the application of the two methods.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 189
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental and ecological statistics 1 (1994), S. 325-332 
    ISSN: 1573-3009
    Schlagwort(e): Administrative health records ; air pollution ; estimating equations ; hospital admissions ; longitudinal count data ; overdispersion ; ozone ; serial correlation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract A statistical model for longitudinal count data is used to examine the potential adverse health effects of ambient air pollution. Daily respiratory admissions to 164 acute care hospitals in Ontario are obtained for the period 1983 to 1988. Estimates of ozone levels in the vicinity of each hospital are determined from air pollution monitoring stations maintained by the Ontario Ministry of the Environment. Generalized estimating equation methods are used to make inferences about the regression and overdispersion parameters. The admission data display little evidence of serial correlation and extra Poisson variation. However, admission rates vary considerably among hospitals. This latter source of variation needs to be taken into account in examining the effects of air pollution on respiratory health status.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 190
    ISSN: 1573-3009
    Schlagwort(e): structural measurement error ; generalized estimating equations ; longitudinal data ; environmental epidemiology ; spatial prediction ; clustered data ; nonlinear mixed-effect models ; air pollution ; respiratory morbidity ; ozone ; sulphate
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper presents the results of a reconsideration of earlier work that finds an association between daily hospital admissions for respiratory distress and daily concentrations of sulphate (lag 1) as well as daily maximum concentrations of ozone (lags 1 and 3). These associations are found even after clustering the data by hospital of admission and accounting for the effects of temperature. We use an adaptation of their generalized estimating equation technique for clustered data, that daily data being for southern Ontario summers from 1983 to 1988. Like them, we adjust for daily maximum temperatures. However, unlike the earlier work returned to ours includes daily average humidity as a potential explanatory variable in our model. Our analysis also differs from theirs in that we cluster the data by census subdivision to reduce the risk of confounding pollutant levels with population size within regions. Moreover, we log-transform the explanatory variables and then high-pass filter the resulting data. We also deviate from the earlier analysis by taking account of measurement error incurred in using surrogate measures of the explanatory variables. To do so we use new methodology designed for our study but of potential value in other applications. That methodology requires a spatial predictive distribution for the unmeasured explanatory variables. Each day about 700 missing measurements for each of these variables can then be imputed over the geographical domain of the study. With these imputations we get a measure of imputation error through the covariance of the predictive distribution. Along with the predictive distribution we require an impact model to link-up with the predictive distribution. We describe that model and show how it uses the imputed measurements of the missing values of the explanatory variables. We also show how through that model, uncertainty about these values is reflected in our analysis and in commensurate uncertainties in the inferences made. Apart from its substantive objectives, our analysis serves to test the new methods with the earlier results serving as a foil. The reassuring qualitative agreement between our findings and the earlier results seems encouraging.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 191
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 116 (1999), S. 33-46 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): growth trends ; site productivity ; European forests ; climate change ; management
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Natural environmental changes and human activities have altered forest growth for centuries. Recent long-term growth investigations indicate an increasing growth trend in European forests. The investigations are based on forest inventory, permanent plot and tree analysis data. The observed trends are species specific, locally varying and modified by remarkably large periodic growth variations. On a European scale, species and site specific quantitative information about the extent and spatial as well as temporal variation in growth acceleration is lacking. Future growth development may differ from past observations. A better understanding of changes in site conditions, their causes and consequences is needed to guide sustainable management of European forests.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 192
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 118 (2000), S. 231-244 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): acidification ; air pollution ; critical loads ; ecological factors
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Ecosystem sensitivity to acid deposition can be a basis for thederivation of cost-effective strategies to sulfur and nitrogenpollutant control, consequently is widely concerned around theworld. In the article, the relative sensitivity of terrestrialecosystem to acid deposition in South China is assessed andmapped using a new sensitivity classification system suitable tosubtropical ecosystem. The result shows that the distribution ofecosystem sensitivity to acid deposition in South China isalmost zonal, on the whole, sensitivity increases from the northand west to the south and east. The most sensitive areas are thenorthwest and southeast of Zhejiang province, the central partof Fujian province, and the northeast of Guangdong province andGuangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region, which are all in the old acidsoil areas with high precipitation and coniferous forests. Theresulting distribution of sensitive regions is different othermaps, including the sensitivity map which is implemented in theRAINS-Asia model.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 193
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): acid deposition ; air pollution ; correlative study ; critical load ; defoliation ; Fagus sylvatica ; forest vitality ; meteorological stress ; Picea abies ; Pinus sylvestris ; Quercus ilex ; Quercus petraea ; Quercus robur
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Site-specific estimates for various environmentalstress factors were related with measured crowncondition data at a systematic 16 ×: 16 km2 gridover Europe, according to previously statedhypotheses, using a multiple regression approach,including interactions, and lagged effects of stressfactors. Methodological differences among countriesaccounted for 〉30% of the variation in defoliation.Nevertheless, crown condition was found to varynaturally with tree age, altitude, drought stress and,most likely, also pathogenic fungi and insects.Significant impacts of air pollution (specificallyozone but also NOx, SOx and acid deposition)were found at regional levels in parts of centralEurope, particularly for deciduous species. Impactsseemed less significant for conifers, especially forspruce, but this might be affected by confoundingeffects or strong correlations between (a harsh)climate and (low) atmospheric deposition in the areawhere spruce predominates. National studies indicatethat ozone and acid deposition can have a significanteffect on the defoliation of spruce as well. Weconclude that while forest condition varies naturally,continued emissions will contribute further to forestdecline in the long term.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 194
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 119 (2000), S. 317-333 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): acid deposition ; acidification ; air pollution ; critical load ; defoliation ; drought ; meteorological stress ; N deposition ; nitrogen oxides ; ozone ; sulphur
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper is the first in a series of four,describing the hypothesis and approach of acorrelative study between observed data on crowncondition in Europe, monitored since 1986 at asystematic 16 × 16 km grid, and site-specificestimations of various natural and anthropogenicstress factors. The study was based on the hypothesisthat forests respond to various natural andanthropogenic stress factors, whose contributiondepend on the geographic region considered. In view ofthis hypothesis, major stand and site characteristics,chemical soil composition, meteorological stressfactors (temperature and drought stress indices) andair pollution stress (concentrations and/ordepositions of SOx, NOy, NHx andO3) were included as predictor variables. Theresponse variables considered were actual defoliationand changes/trends in defoliation for five major treespecies. The spatial distribution of the averagedefoliation during the period 1986–1995 shows highdefoliation in Central Europe and in parts ofScandinavia and of Southern Europe. There are,however, sharp changes at country borders, which aredue to methodological differences between countries.The spatial distribution of the calculated trends showa distinct cluster of large deterioration in parts ofCentral and Eastern Europe and in Spain and a ratherscattered pattern of positive and negative trends for most of Europe, indicating that other factors than airpollution only have a strong impact on defoliation.The limitations of the study are discussed in view ofthe quality of the considered response and predictor variables.
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  • 195
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 105 (1998), S. 677-684 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): air pollution ; global warming ; greenhouse gas ; methaneformation
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract To determine effective means to reduce methane (CH4) production from flooded rice soil, laboratory measurements were made on methane (CH4) formation in a Crowley silt loam as affected by the addition of potassium nitrate (KNO3), manganese dioxide (MnO2), and air (O2) under flooded conditions. In the experiment, oxidants were added to the soil prior to flooding at the rate of 300 and 1000 ppm O2 equivalent. Methane production was measured over a 32 d incubation period. Potassium nitrate added at rates of 300 and 1000 ppm O2 equivalent reduced CH4 production by 100% and MnO_2, at 300 and 1000 ppm O2 equivalent, significantly decreased CH4 formation approximately 20% and 98-99% over the 32 d period, respectively compared to controls. Air addition did not significantly affect CH4 formation.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 196
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 91 (1996), S. 163-186 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): birch ; cavitation ; climate change ; climatic variability ; decline ; dieback ; drought ; freezing ; global warming ; Northern Hardwoods ; temperate forests ; sugar maple
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract The severity of dieback in Northern Hardwood Forests of Canada and the United States this century (1910–1990) was reconstructed from pathology records and compared to indices of extreme weather stresses in the region, and to changes in global temperatures and climatic variability over the same period. Thaw-freeze and root-freeze events in winter and early spring were key factors intriggering (and synchronizing) severe episodes of dieback. Once trees were injured by freezing, forest dieback correlated significantly with heat and drought stress. Freezing (but not drought) stresses in Northern Hardwoods correlated significantly (r = 0.70, p 〈 0.001) with increasing global mean annual temperatures and low values of the Pacific tropical Southern Oscillation Index. Major diebacks did not occur early in the century at a time of notable freezing stress. Prior to 1940, the Northern Hardwoods consisted of relatively young populations of trees regrowing following extensive cutting and forest burning in the late 19th century (1860–1890). It appears that forest maturation is the key factorpreconditioning trees to climatic injury, and dieback. A simple projection of climate and forest maturation ages suggested the recurrence of major dieback episodes on white/yellow birch, sugar maple and red spruce in the latter half of the 21st century (2045–2085).
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 197
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 94 (1997), S. 137-162 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): carbon budget ; forest management ; climate change ; mitigation options
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Huge areas of the Russian forests suffer from insufficient forest management. A scenario has been developed for an improved management program that would be implemented over the next 40 years. Possible options have been aggregated into three interlinked groups: increase in forest productivity through improvement of the forest conditions and the structure of the Forest Fund, decrease of carbon release by mitigation of disturbance regimes, and improvement of landscape management. One prerequisite in developing this scenario was that the cost of sequestering one ton of carbon should not exceed US$3 (1992 dollar value). In this article a simple model is described to illustrate the following possibilities for increased carbon fixation by improved forest management: large-scale reforestation and afforestation, replacement of stands with low productivity and replacement of so called soft deciduous species and “climax” stands, and implementation of rational silviculture (thinning). The results indicate a potential for an increase in carbon fixation in Russian forest ecosystems of 24.4 Pg over 100 years, after the first year that the actions discussed are implemented. The net sink of carbon was determined to be 16.5 Pg in the “low” estimate and 42.5 Pg in the “high” estimate. There are, however, many uncertainties in the data and there are difficulties in adequately modeling the possibilities for implementation under current conditions in Russia. In spite of these uncertainties, we conclude that there is great potential for economically justified increased carbon fixation through improved forest management in Russia.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 198
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Water, air & soil pollution 94 (1997), S. 137-162 
    ISSN: 1573-2932
    Schlagwort(e): carbon budget ; forest management ; climate change ; mitigation options
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Huge areas of the Russian forests suffer from insufficient forest management. A scenario has been developed for an improved management program that would be implemented over the next 40 years. Possible options have been aggregated into three interlinked groups: increase in forest productivity through improvement of the forest conditions and the structure of the Forest Fund, decrease of carbon release by mitigation of disturbance regimes, and improvement of landscape management. One prerequisite in developing this scenario was that the cost of sequestering one ton of carbon should not exceed US$3 (1992 dollar value). In this article a simple model is described to illustrate the following possibilities for increased carbon fixation by improved forest management: large-scale reforestation and afforestation, replacement of stands with low productivity and replacement of so called soft deciduous species and “climax” stands, and implementation of rational silviculture (thinning). The results indicate a potential for an increase in carbon fixation in Russian forest ecosystems of 24.4 Pg over 100 years, after the first year that the actions discussed are implemented. The net sink of carbon was determined to be 16.5 Pg in the “low” estimate and 42.5 Pg in the “high” estimate. There are, however, many uncertainties in the data and there are difficulties in adequately modeling the possibilities for implementation under current conditions in Russia. In spite of these uncertainties, we conclude that there is great potential for economically justified increased carbon fixation through improved forest management in Russia.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
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  • 199
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): biodiversity ; boreal forest ; Choristoneura fumiferana ; climate change ; disturbance ; insect outbreaks ; spruce budworm
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Insect outbreaks are a major disturbance factor in Canadian forests. If global warming occurs, the disturbance patterns caused by insects may change substantially, especially for those insects whose distributions depend largely on climate. In addition, the likelihood of wildfire often increases after insect attack, so the unpredictability of future insect disturbance patterns adds to the general uncertainty of fire regimes. The rates of processes fundamental to energy, nutrient, and biogeochemical cycling are also affected by insect disturbance, and through these effects, potential changes in disturbance patterns indirectly influence biodiversity. A process-level perspective is advanced to describe how the major insect outbreak system in Canadian forests, that of the spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana Clem. [Lepidoptera: Tortricidae]), might react to global warming. The resulting scenarios highlight the possible importance of natural selection, extreme weather, phenological relationships, complex feedbacks, historical conditions, and threshold behavior. That global warming already seems to be affecting the lifecycles of some insects points to the timeliness of this discussion. Some implications of this process-level perspective for managing the effects of global warming on biodiversity are discussed. The value of process-level understanding and high-resolution, long-term monitoring in attacking such problems is emphasized. It is argued that a species-level, preservationist approach may have unwanted side-effects, be cost-ineffective, and ecologically unsustainable.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 200
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Environmental monitoring and assessment 49 (1998), S. 251-262 
    ISSN: 1573-2959
    Schlagwort(e): air issues ; air pollution ; Canada ; ecological integrity ; national parks
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Energietechnik
    Notizen: Abstract Several case histories illustrate national park air issues and responses in Canada. These examples include: acidification studies and establishment of a multiparticipant monitoring programme at Kejimkujik; studies of smoke at campgrounds in Jasper, La Mauricie and Forillon, its effect on health, and the management of visitors and firewood supply to mitigate these risks; and estimates of emissions from through-traffic in Yoho. From these cases and from reviews of the secondary literature, we can identify air issues that affect the maintenance of ecological integrity in national parks. These issues are: forest fires and smoke management; defining goals for ecosystem restoration; representation of natural regional conditions; visitor health and amenity; acidification; pesticides; eutrophication from airborne nitrates; permafrost melting; and UV-B. In June 1995, an International Air Issues Workshop brought together representatives from Canadian and U.S. national parks and other selected agencies. They ranked the air issues affecting national parks, producing quite an eclectic list. From the most to least serious issue, they are: acidification, toxics, visibility impairment, UV-B, smoke management, oil and gas development, fugitive dust, global warming, overflights, light pollution, noise and odour. Note that atmospheric change is only one among a group of stresses affecting national parks. Of 28 stresses recognized as significant for national parks in 1992, acid precipitation ranked 8th and climate change 23rd. Petrochemicals, 17th, pesticides, 18th and heavy metals, 21st, may be partly airborne. The 1995 workshop made several recommendations applicable to Parks Canada, from which those related to research and monitoring needs have been extracted. The air monitoring needed most by national parks is of suspended particulate and visibility. This is in response to human health and amenity concerns and international treaty obligations. The long-term protection of natural sites in national parks provides opportunities for other agencies to monitor ambient air quality and ecosystem responses, for example through the installation of under-canopy monitoring towers. The air research most needed in national parks is the modelling of natural landscapes and vegetation complexes in response to climate change. This follows from the primary purpose of each national park, to maintain the ecological integrity of an area selected to represent a natural region. The principal air research opportunities for other agencies in national parks are probably intensive instrumentation and sampling over several years to examine the air-vegetation-soil transfers of nutrients, pollutants and radiation.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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