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  • 1
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-27
    Description: In economics and other social sciences, complex processes are often represented by numerical models of reality which more or less well reflect behavioral relationships and interactions. Such attempts are the subject of a lecture course 'Mathematical Theory of Democracy' by the author at the Faculty of Economics of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. One new result in this field is presented here in the form of a statistical test to decide whether a political party or coalition of parties represents a majority of the population. For this purpose, party or coalition positions on a sample of policy issues, like introduction of a legal nationwide minimum wage, privatization of railways, and others, are compared with the results of public opinion polls on the same issues. The test is based on estimating the statistical significance of the coincidence observed (i.e. how likely is the coincidence by chance) to the end of accepting or rejecting the representativeness hypothesis. The test is developed for single parties and coalitions of two or three parties. It is illustrated with an estimation of representativeness of five major German parties and their potential coalitions basing on the official party manifestos published before the German parliamentary elections 2009 and on relevant polls of public opinion.
    Description: In der Ökonomie und den anderen Sozialwissenschaften wird immer wieder versucht, komplexe Prozesse der Wirklichkeit durch numerische Modelle abzubilden - was mit Abstraktionen für z. B. Verhaltens- und Wirkungsrelationen mehr oder weniger gut gelingt. Solche Versuche sind Gegenstand einer Vorlesungsreihe 'Mathematische Theorie der Demokratie' des Autors an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät des Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie. Ein neues Ergebnis in diesem Bereich wird hier vorgelegt in Form eines statistischen Tests, der entscheiden soll, ob eine politische Partei oder eine Parteienkoalition repräsentativ im Sinn der Bevölkerungsmehrheit agiert. Zu diesem Zweck wird die Übereinstimmung von Parteien- oder Koalitionspositionen mit Ergebnissen von Meinungsumfragen in der Bevölkerung verglichen, etwa zur Einführung eines bundesweiten gesetzlichen Mindestlohns oder der Privatisierung des Schienenverkehrs und anderem mehr. Der Test basiert auf der Einschätzung der statistischen Signifikanz der beobachteten Übereinstimmung (d.h. wie wahrscheinlich ist eine nur zufällige Übereinstimmung), um die Hypothese von der Repräsentativität der Politik zu akzeptieren oder abzulehnen. Die Studie spielt die Repräsentativität von einzelnen Parteien sowie von Zweier- und Dreier-Koalitionen durch. Darunter ist auch die Konstellation der fünf großen deutschen Parteien und ihrer potentiell möglichen Koalitionen auf der Basis der Bundestagswahl von 2009.
    Keywords: C12 ; C44 ; C63 ; D71 ; D72 ; ddc:330 ; mathematical theory of democracy ; statistical test ; parties ; coalitions ; representativeness ; Bernoulli matrices ; sums of random vectors ; Demokratie ; Politische Partei ; Öffentliche Meinung ; Wahlverhalten ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Göttingen: Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Department für Agrarökonomie und Rurale Entwicklung (DARE)
    Publication Date: 2018-09-03
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Bioenergie ; Landwirtschaft ; Betriebliche Investitionspolitik ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 3
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    North York: Canadian Center of Science and Education
    Publication Date: 2020-02-10
    Description: Empirical evidence suggests that capital structure varies across firms facing different levels of information asymmetry, however, this evidence contradict the prediction of pecking order hypothesis. Although debt capacity constraints offer some explanation for this discrepancy, it fails to explain the behavior of small high growth firms who do not issue debt even with no debt capacity constraints. Against this backdrop, this study investigated the effects of financial constraints on firm capital structure in Kenya. This was implemented by interacting a financial constraints dummy with the right-hand side variables of pecking order test equation to allow for any variation of capital structure across financial constraints regimes. The results show that constrained firms use less internal funds and have less cash than unconstrained firms. Pecking order theory was not supported. However, allowing financial constraints regimes in pecking order equation improved the fit of the model and produced results that are consistent with pecking order prediction. Financing behavior varies with financial constraints status. The wider the wedge between the cost of debt and the opportunity cost of internal funds, the higher the value transferred to debt-holders and the lower the debt utilization. To improve firm access to capital, policies should be geared towards reducing the wedge between the cost of external and internal funds.
    Keywords: D82 ; D92 ; E22 ; G31 ; G32 ; G33 ; L60 ; ddc:330 ; financial constraints ; manufacturing ; investment ; capital structure ; Kenya
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:article
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