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  • 1
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    Unknown
    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-27
    Description: In economics and other social sciences, complex processes are often represented by numerical models of reality which more or less well reflect behavioral relationships and interactions. Such attempts are the subject of a lecture course 'Mathematical Theory of Democracy' by the author at the Faculty of Economics of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. One new result in this field is presented here in the form of a statistical test to decide whether a political party or coalition of parties represents a majority of the population. For this purpose, party or coalition positions on a sample of policy issues, like introduction of a legal nationwide minimum wage, privatization of railways, and others, are compared with the results of public opinion polls on the same issues. The test is based on estimating the statistical significance of the coincidence observed (i.e. how likely is the coincidence by chance) to the end of accepting or rejecting the representativeness hypothesis. The test is developed for single parties and coalitions of two or three parties. It is illustrated with an estimation of representativeness of five major German parties and their potential coalitions basing on the official party manifestos published before the German parliamentary elections 2009 and on relevant polls of public opinion.
    Description: In der Ökonomie und den anderen Sozialwissenschaften wird immer wieder versucht, komplexe Prozesse der Wirklichkeit durch numerische Modelle abzubilden - was mit Abstraktionen für z. B. Verhaltens- und Wirkungsrelationen mehr oder weniger gut gelingt. Solche Versuche sind Gegenstand einer Vorlesungsreihe 'Mathematische Theorie der Demokratie' des Autors an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät des Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie. Ein neues Ergebnis in diesem Bereich wird hier vorgelegt in Form eines statistischen Tests, der entscheiden soll, ob eine politische Partei oder eine Parteienkoalition repräsentativ im Sinn der Bevölkerungsmehrheit agiert. Zu diesem Zweck wird die Übereinstimmung von Parteien- oder Koalitionspositionen mit Ergebnissen von Meinungsumfragen in der Bevölkerung verglichen, etwa zur Einführung eines bundesweiten gesetzlichen Mindestlohns oder der Privatisierung des Schienenverkehrs und anderem mehr. Der Test basiert auf der Einschätzung der statistischen Signifikanz der beobachteten Übereinstimmung (d.h. wie wahrscheinlich ist eine nur zufällige Übereinstimmung), um die Hypothese von der Repräsentativität der Politik zu akzeptieren oder abzulehnen. Die Studie spielt die Repräsentativität von einzelnen Parteien sowie von Zweier- und Dreier-Koalitionen durch. Darunter ist auch die Konstellation der fünf großen deutschen Parteien und ihrer potentiell möglichen Koalitionen auf der Basis der Bundestagswahl von 2009.
    Keywords: C12 ; C44 ; C63 ; D71 ; D72 ; ddc:330 ; mathematical theory of democracy ; statistical test ; parties ; coalitions ; representativeness ; Bernoulli matrices ; sums of random vectors ; Demokratie ; Politische Partei ; Öffentliche Meinung ; Wahlverhalten ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
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    Unknown
    Vienna: The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw)
    Publication Date: 2019-09-21
    Description: After the EU enlargement of May 2004, the exchange of agro-food goods between the EU 15 and the new member states (NMS) has accelerated considerably. In particular the expansion of Polish exports in 2005 resulted in the highest surplus registered by the NMS 4 (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia) in the past decade. Lower production costs in agriculture, especially for labour, are a fundamental cause of Poland's success to date. Despite remaining net importers, the Czech Republic and Slovakia have also slightly improved their position on the EU agro-food markets. Hungary's great ambitions - prior to EU accession - to further expand to EU markets have so far not materialized. The Hungarian setback is rooted in higher production costs, in particular in the livestock sector, and delayed preparations needed to meet European standards. Backed mostly by direct payments and by high EU internal farmgate prices for a number of products, the economic situation in agriculture in the NMS-4 has improved substantially after accession to the EU. In the years to come, price competitiveness in the NMS will erode as the slight deterioration in agricultural terms of trade visible in the past decade will continue. With ongoing integration into the EU, labour costs and land prices will be on the rise, while farmgate prices in the EU, under pressure from the WTO, will drop in the long run. Further liberalization of the agro-food markets and rising labour productivity will result in a reduction of agricultural jobs in the EU. Consequently, the production of organic foodstuffs and other labour-intensive regional specialties may become an increasingly attractive option to survive. The size and structure of farms will vary between countries depending on the different natural and climatic conditions, as well as their previous histories. It can be expected that large market-oriented farms will continue to constitute the majority in the Czech Republic and Slovakia and, to a lesser extent, in Hungary; the significance of smaller market-oriented farms is likely to dwindle. In Poland, this concentration process will ensue at a much slower pace owing to the country's completely different post-war development. Mounting WTO pressure and the growing reluctance of rich EU member states to contribute to the Brussels budget for the development of poorer countries of the Union will lead to a weakening of redistribution processes. As a result, the total amount of money available from Brussels for redistribution under the CAP will be less than today.
    Keywords: F15 ; H71 ; J33 ; J43 ; O13 ; O57 ; P32 ; Q14 ; Q15 ; Q17 ; ddc:330 ; Central and East European new EU member states ; agriculture ; food industry ; agro food trade ; EU integration ; regional development ; Common Agricultural Policy ; WTO
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:report
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