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  • Artikel  (9)
  • 550 - Earth sciences
  • Electronic structure and strongly correlated systems
  • uncertainty
  • Mathematik  (9)
  • 1
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Computational & mathematical organization theory 3 (1997), S. 43-66 
    ISSN: 1572-9346
    Schlagwort(e): inter-organizational relations ; adaptive learning ; simulation models ; subcontracting ; organizational learning ; uncertainty ; market
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Mathematik
    Notizen: Abstract A model is designed and used to simulate how partners in a supplyrelationship identify and reach a common target in the form of an ideal endproduct. They cooperate fully and share returns. They learn by interaction,as follows. From their different perspectives, they complement each other'sidentification of the target. They adapt their productive competencies tothe target, in order to conform to demand (quality), and to each other, inorder to achieve efficient complementarity in production (efficiency). Asthey approach the target, their accuracy of identifying the targetincreases. Also, their speed of adaptation increases, and thus they can besaid to be learning by doing. The model allows two different patterns ofacceleration: a routine and a radical type of development. At some distancefrom the target they start to produce. A longer distance from the targetyields earlier returns, but also entails a greater compromise on quality andthereby yields lower returns. Unpredictable changes in market and technologyyield random shifts of the target. In the analysis, the returns from singleand dual sourcing are compared under different parameter settings. Thesimulations show that in line with expectations dual sourcing can be moreadvantageous if development is of the radical type. However, the advantageonly arises if conditions of market and technology are neither too volatilenor too stable.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 2
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Schlagwort(e): heterogeneity ; Monte-Carlo analysis ; uncertainty ; geostatistics ; conditioning ; self-calibrated method
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Mathematik
    Notizen: Abstract Transmissivity and head data are sampled from an exhaustive synthetic reference field and used to predict the arrival positions and arrival times of a number of particles transported across the field, together with an uncertainty estimate. Different combinations of number of transmissivity data and number of head data used are considered in each one of a series of 64 Monte-Carlo analyses. In each analysis, 250 realizations of transmissivity fields conditioned to both transmissivity and head data are generated using a novel geostatistically based inverse method. Pooling the solutions of the flow and transport equations in all 250 realizations allows building conditional frequency distributions for particle arrival positions and arrival times. By comparing these fresquency distributions, we can assess the incremental gain that additional head data provide. The main conclusion is that the first few head data dramatically improve the quality of transport predictions.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 3
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mathematical geology 23 (1991), S. 289-295 
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Schlagwort(e): deposit shapes ; prediction ; uncertainty ; fuzzy sets ; relations ; tolerances
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Mathematik
    Notizen: Abstract This paper presents a theoretical background for the prediction method enabling estimating an unknownS n stratum-shape using the information aboutS 0, S1, ...,S n−1—known shapes, obtained during exploitation process in open-pit mines. The method allows to infer about the uncertainty of such a prediction and may form the basis for the estimation of ore reserves in the exploitation area, from information about shapes and boreholes descriptions.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 4
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mathematical geology 21 (1989), S. 309-318 
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Schlagwort(e): uncertainty ; fuzzy sets ; strength parameters ; workability coefficient
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Mathematik
    Notizen: Abstract The problem of fuzzy searching for hard workability rock areas is divided into two steps. The first is description of uncertainty of compressive strength, internal friction angle, and cohesion. The second is description of workability coefficient via fuzzy sets. The method presented is used in a computer program, which is an element of data base utility library.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 5
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Mathematical geology 20 (1988), S. 543-565 
    ISSN: 1573-8868
    Schlagwort(e): uncertainty ; performance assessment ; radioactive waste disposal
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Geologie und Paläontologie , Mathematik
    Notizen: Abstract Federal regulations governing the disposal of high-level radioactive waste in deep, geologic repositories require an assessment of performance over thousands of years. Because of the long regulatory period involved and the complex nature of the events and processes of interest, prediction of the performance of the disposal system will inevitably include uncertainties. These uncertainties come from a variety of sources, and some are quantifiable and others are not. This paper discusses these uncertainties and outlines approaches for their treatment. Recommendations for the potential resolution of current limitations in the treatment of uncertainties in performance assessment are made. Some general issues, as well as a suggested approach for incorporating expert judgment into quantitative performance assessment analysis, are discussed also.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 6
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 9 (1987), S. 615-628 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Schlagwort(e): Bayesian paradigm ; Bayes ; statistical inference ; applied probability ; uncertainty
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Mathematik , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract This paper is based on an invited lecture given by the author at the ORSA/TIMS Special Interest Group on Applied Probability Conference onStatistical and Computational Problems in Probability Modeling, held at Williamsburg, Virginia, January 7–9, 1985. The theme of this paper is twofold. First, that members of the above group should be seriously concerned with issues of statistical inference — they should not stop short upon proposing a probability model. Second, that inference be undertaken via a strict adherence to the rules of probability — the Bayesian paradigm. To underscore a need for emphasizing the first theme, it may be pertinent to note that an overwhelming majority of the papers dealing with statistical and inferential issues that were presented at this conference were authored by members who did not claim to belong to the ORSA/TIMS Special Interest Group on Applied Probability. The lecture was followed by a panel discussion, with Drs. Lyle Broemeling and Edward Wegman of the Office of Naval Research as discussants. Dr. Robert Launer of the Army Research Office served as a moderator. Discussions from the floor included comments by Professors D. Harrington of Harvard University, E. Parzen of Texas A & M University, and R. Smith of Imperial College, London, England. This paper, and the comments of the panelists, are published in this volume of theAnnals of Operations Research, which is going to serve as a Proceedings of the Conference.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 7
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Aequationes mathematicae 28 (1985), S. 269-287 
    ISSN: 1420-8903
    Schlagwort(e): random vector ; entropy ; uncertainty ; additivity ; sub-additivity ; expansibility ; symmetry ; Primary 94A17, 94A15, 39B40
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Mathematik
    Notizen: Summary A measure of the amount of uncertainty (entropy) associated with a (discrete) randomn-vector should take into account all kinds of “information” that is provided. In particular, it should depend both on the range and on the probability distribution of the random vector. In this paper we give acharacterization of those entropies which are expansible, additive, subadditive, partially symmetric and fulfil the said requirement. In the last part of the paper, we discuss the unexpected full symmetry of the mathematical representation of these entropies, as derived. We also suggest possible ways to prevent it.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 8
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    Annals of operations research 2 (1984), S. 271-284 
    ISSN: 1572-9338
    Schlagwort(e): Search ; uncertainty ; economics ; exploration ; minerals
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Mathematik , Wirtschaftswissenschaften
    Notizen: Abstract A sequential method of modeling the increase in precision of expected net revenues for a proposed exploration and exploitation program has been developed. Embedded within a computer simulation model of the exploration process, which incorporates a method of learning about deposit characteristics, is a multi-stage stochastic optimization process model to determine the optimal exploitation pattern of the deposit. This approach stresses the interdependence of the planning of the exploration and exploitation processes. The model can be used to determine the amount of exploration which should be undertaken in an area by more precisely predicting the long-range profitability associated with the amount of exploration. Thus, decision makers are provided a capability which reduces the uncertainty in profitability outcomes over future production periods.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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  • 9
    Digitale Medien
    Digitale Medien
    Springer
    BIT 10 (1970), S. 95-105 
    ISSN: 1572-9125
    Schlagwort(e): Land-use planning ; accessibility ; uncertainty ; game theory ; linear programming
    Quelle: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Thema: Mathematik
    Notizen: Abstract One objective in regional planning is the creation of communities with great accessibility. Thus we should plan the locations of inhabitants and the activities of the region so that the total accessibility will be maximized subject to some restrictions. This is a quadratic programming problem, which can be solved by quadratic programming techniques, but we cannot then take into account the uncertainties of the problem. In this paper a new criterion function is proposed for accessibility, uncertainty problems in regional land-use planning. It is derived from Hurwicz's generalized maximin principle. Many advantages are gained, for the planning problem is separated into linear programming problems, the uncertainties are taken into consideration as in game theory and the methods of parametric programming are available. A simplified problem of the populations of three town areas is studied and the method is generalized for problems of many activities and areas.
    Materialart: Digitale Medien
    Standort Signatur Erwartet Verfügbarkeit
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