ALBERT

Description: Mesopelagic fish (meso-fish) are central species within the Southern Ocean (SO). However, their ecosystem role and adaptive capacity to climate change are rarely integrated into marine protected area (MPAs) assessments. This is a pity given their importance as crucial prey and predators in food webs, coupled with the impacts of climate change. Here, we estimate the habitat distribution of nine meso-fish using an ensemble model approach (MAXENT, random forest, and boosted regression tree). Four climate model simulations were used to project their distribution under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) for short-term (2006–2055) and long-term (2050–2099) periods. In addition, we assess the ecological representativeness of established and proposed MPAs under climate change scenarios using meso-fish as indicator species. Our models show that all species shift poleward in the future. Lanternfishes (family Myctophidae) are predicted to migrate poleward more than other families (Paralepididae, Nototheniidae, Bathylagidae, and Gonostomatidae). In comparison, lanternfishes were projected to increase habitat area in the eastern SO but lose area in the western SO; the opposite was projected for species in other families. Important areas (IAs) of meso-fish are mainly distributed near the Antarctic Peninsula and East Antarctica. Proposed MPAs cover 23% of IAs at present and 38% of IAs in the future (RCP8.5, long-term future). Many IAs of meso-fish still need to be included in MPA proposals, such as the Prydz Bay and the seas around the Antarctic Peninsula. Our results provide a framework for designing new MPAs incorporating climate change adaptation strategies for MPA management.

Description: Background: Extreme terrestrial, analogue environments are widely used models to study the limits of life and to infer habitability of extraterrestrial settings. In contrast to Earth’s ecosystems, potential extraterrestrial biotopes are usually characterized by a lack of oxygen. Methods: In the MASE project (Mars Analogues for Space Exploration), we selected representative anoxic analogue environments (permafrost, salt-mine, acidic lake and river, sulfur springs) for the comprehensive analysis of their microbial communities. We assessed the microbiome profile of intact cells by propidium monoazide-based amplicon and shotgun metagenome sequencing, supplemented with an extensive cultivation effort. Results: The information retrieved from microbiome analyses on the intact microbial community thriving in the MASE sites, together with the isolation of 31 model microorganisms and successful binning of 15 high-quality genomes allowed us to observe principle pathways, which pinpoint specific microbial functions in the MASE sites compared to moderate environments. The microorganisms were characterized by an impressive machinery to withstand physical and chemical pressures. All levels of our analyses revealed the strong and omnipresent dependency of the microbial communities on complex organic matter. Moreover, we identified an extremotolerant cosmopolitan group of 34 poly-extremophiles thriving in all sites. Conclusions: Our results reveal the presence of a core microbiome and microbial taxonomic similarities between saline and acidic anoxic environments. Our work further emphasizes the importance of the environmental, terrestrial parameters for the functionality of a microbial community, but also reveals a high proportion of living microorganisms in extreme environments with a high adaptation potential within habitability borders.

Description: The extreme 2018 and 2022 droughts pose as recent examples of a series of drought events that have hit Europe over the last decades with wide ranging social, environmental and economic impacts. Although the link between atmospheric circulation and meteorological drought is clear and often highlighted during major drought events, there is a lack of in-depth studies linking historical changes in meteorological drought indices and prevailing large-scale atmospheric patterns in Europe. To meet this shortfall, we investigated the relation between changes in large-scale atmospheric patterns and meteorological drought, as indicated by the geopotential height at 500mb (Z500) and the Standardised Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), respectively. Calculations were done separately for four climate regions (North, West, Central-East and Mediterranean) over the growing season (March–September). Coherent patterns of significant changes towards higher pressure (increasing Z500) and drier conditions (decreasing SPEI) over 1979–2021 are found over West in spring and Central-East in summer. Z500 and SPEI are strongly linked, reflected by both significant (1979–2021) correlations and high co-occurrences (69-96%) between meteorological drought and high-pressure anomaly occurrences since 1900. North shows the most heterogeneous trend patterns and weakest links, but constitutes a hotspot of significantly increasing Z500 in September. Finally, we performed an ensemble-based, European wide analysis of future Z500, based on CMIP6 low-end (SSP126) and high-end (SSP585) 21st century emission scenarios. According to the projected changes, anomalously high-pressure systems will be the new normal regardless of scenario, and well exceeding the 2018 and 2022 levels in the case of the high-end emission scenario. However, due to the limitations of the model ensemble to represent the spatial heterogeneity in historical Z500 variability and trends (1979–2014), projected changes in large-scale circulation, and associated meteorological droughts, are highly uncertain. This paper provides new insight into significant trends in atmospheric circulation over Europe, their strong links to the observed drying trends, and the inability of a CMIP6 ensemble to reproduce the spatial heterogeneity of the circulation changes.

Description: Numerical simulations indicate that extreme climate events (e.g., droughts, floods, heat waves) will increase in a warming world, putting enormous pressure on society and political decision-makers. To provide a long-term perspective on the variability of these extreme events, here we use a ~700 years tree-ring oxygen isotope chronology from Eastern Europe, in combination with paleo-reanalysis data, to show that the summer drying over Eastern Europe observed over the last ~150 years is to the best of our knowledge unprecedented over the last 700 years. This drying is driven by a change in the pressure patterns over Europe, characterized by a shift from zonal to a wavier flow around 1850CE, leading to extreme summer droughts and aridification. To our knowledge, this is the first and longest reconstruction of drought variability, based on stable oxygen isotopes in the tree-ring cellulose, for Eastern Europe, helping to fill a gap in the spatial coverage of paleoclimate reconstructions.

Description: The richness and structure of symbiont assemblages are shaped by many factors acting at different spatial and temporal scales. Among them, host phylogeny and geographic distance play essential roles. To explore drivers of richness and structure of symbiont assemblages, feather mites and seabirds are an attractive model due to their peculiar traits. Feather mites are permanent ectosymbionts and considered highly host-specific with limited dispersal abilities. Seabirds harbour species-rich feather mite communities and their colonial breeding provides opportunities for symbionts to exploit several host species. To unravel the richness and test the influence of host phylogeny and geographic distance on mite communities, we collected feather mites from 11 seabird species breeding across the Atlantic Ocean and Mediterranean Sea. Using morphological criteria, we identified 33 mite species, of which 17 were new or recently described species. Based on community similarity analyses, mite communities were clearly structured by host genera, while the effect of geography within host genera or species was weak and sometimes negligible. We found a weak but significant effect of geographic distance on similarity patterns in mite communities for Cory’s shearwaters Calonectris borealis. Feather mite specificity mainly occurred at the host-genus rather than at host-species level, suggesting that previously inferred host species-specificity may have resulted from poorly sampling closely related host species. Overall, our results show that host phylogeny plays a greater role than geography in determining the composition and structure of mite assemblages and pinpoints the importance of sampling mites from closely-related host species before describing mite specificity patterns.

Description: Climate indices are often used as a climate monitoring tool, allowing us to understand how the frequency, intensity, and duration of extreme weather events are changing over time. Here, based on complex statistical analysis we identify highly correlated significant pairs of compound events at the highest spatial resolution, on a monthly temporal scale across Europe. Continental-scale monthly analysis unleashes information on compound events such as high-risk zones, hotspots, monthly shifts of hotspots and trends, risk exposure to land cover and population, and identification of maximum increasing trends. While there are many studies on single or compound climate extremes there are only a few studies that addresses the relationship between pairs of hazards, the incorporation of bioclimatic indices, the determination of a grid best-fit copula approach, and the outlining relevance of this work of compound event risks with exposures. In this respect, here, using 27-bivariate and 10-trivariate copula models, we show that the different hazard pairs have high combined risks of indices related to radiation, temperature, evapotranspiration, bioclimatic-based indices, such as the universal thermal climate index, wind chill index, and heat index, mainly over the northern and eastern European countries. Furthermore, we show that over the last 7 decades, agricultural and coastal areas are highly exposed to the risks of defined hotspots of compound events. In some of the hotspots of compound events-identified by clusters, there is no monthly shifts of hotspots, leading to higher impacts when compounded. Future work needs to integrate the framework and process to identify other compound pairs.

Description: Exceptional drought events, known as megadroughts, have occurred on every continent outside Antarctica over the past ~2,000 years, causing major ecological and societal disturbances. In this Review, we discuss shared causes and features of Common Era (Year 1–present) and future megadroughts. Decadal variations in sea surface temperatures are the primary driver of megadroughts, with secondary contributions from radiative forcing and land–atmosphere interactions. Anthropogenic climate change has intensified ongoing megadroughts in south-western North America and across Chile and Argentina. Future megadroughts will be substantially warmer than past events, with this warming driving projected increases in megadrought risk and severity across many regions, including western North America, Central America, Europe and the Mediterranean, extratropical South America, and Australia. However, several knowledge gaps currently undermine confidence in understanding past and future megadroughts. These gaps include a paucity of high-resolution palaeoclimate information over Africa, tropical South America and other regions; incomplete representations of internal variability and land surface processes in climate models; and the undetermined capacity of water-resource management systems to mitigate megadrought impacts. Addressing these deficiencies will be crucial for increasing confidence in projections of future megadrought risk and for resiliency planning.

Description: The warm Atlantic Water transported into the Barents Sea plays a crucial role in winter sea ice extent, marine ecosystems, and mid-latitude weather. The North Atlantic Oscillation is known to be an important driver for the Atlantic Water transport variability in the Barents Sea Opening. Here, we find that the dependence of the Barents Sea Opening ocean volume transport variability on the North Atlantic Oscillation is non-stationary. Our results indicate that for the period 1995 to 2005, the link between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the transport variability in the Barents Sea Opening temporarily weakened before an eventual recovery. During this period, synoptic cyclones with unusual trajectories as a consequence of pronounced atmospheric blocking in the North Atlantic sector altered the large-scale and local wind patterns. This temporarily caused a state that the Barents Sea Opening transport variability is largely locally driven instead of being driven by the North Atlantic Oscillation. Our study suggests that an adequate representation of both the North Atlantic Oscillation and cyclone activity is necessary for climate models to better predict future changes in poleward ocean heat transport and Arctic climate.