ALBERT

Description: Predicting future thaw slump activity requires a sound understanding of the atmospheric drivers and geomorphic controls on mass wasting across a range of time scales. On sub-seasonal time scales, sparse measurements indicate that mass wasting at active slumps is often limited by the energy available for melting ground ice, but other factors such as rainfall or the formation of an insulating veneer may also be relevant. To study the sub-seasonal drivers, we derive topographic changes from single-pass radar interferometric data acquired by the TanDEM-X satellite (12 m resolution). The high vertical precision (around 30 cm), frequent observations (11 days) and large coverage (5000 km2) allow us to track volume losses as drivers such as the available energy change during summer in two study regions. We find that thaw slumps in the Tuktoyaktuk coastlands, Canada, are not energy limited in June, as they undergo limited mass wasting (height loss of around 0 cm/day) despite the ample available energy, indicating the widespread presence of an insulating snow or debris veneer. Later in summer, height losses generally increase (around 3 cm/day), but they do so in distinct ways. For many slumps, mass wasting tracks the available energy, a temporal pattern that is also observed at coastal yedoma cliffs on the Bykovsky Peninsula, Russia. However, the other two common temporal trajectories are asynchronous with the available energy, as they track strong precipitation events or show a sudden speed-up in late August, respectively. The observed temporal patterns are poorly related to slump characteristics like the slump area. The contrasting temporal behaviour of nearby thaw slumps highlights the importance of complex local and temporally varying controls on mass wasting.

Description: A suite of oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs – acetaldehyde, acetone, propanal, butanal and butanone) were measured concurrently in the surface water and atmosphere of the South China Sea and Sulu Sea in November 2011. A strong correlation was observed between all OVOC concentrations in the surface seawater along the entire cruise track, except for acetaldehyde, suggesting similar sources and sinks in the surface ocean. Additionally, several phytoplankton groups, such as haptophytes or pelagophytes, were also correlated to all OVOCs indicating that phytoplankton may be an important source for marine OVOCs in the South China and Sulu Seas. Humic and protein like fluorescent dissolved organic matter (FDOM) components seemed to be additional precursors for butanone and acetaldehyde. The atmospheric OVOC mixing ratios were relative high compared with literature values, suggesting the coastal region of North Borneo as a local hot spot for atmospheric OVOCs. The flux of atmospheric OVOCs was largely into the ocean for all 5 gases, with a few important exceptions near the coast of Borneo. The calculated amount of OVOCs entrained into the ocean seemed to be an important source of OVOCs to the surface ocean. When the fluxes were out of the ocean, marine OVOCs were found to be enough to control the local measured OVOC distribution in the atmosphere. Based on our model calculations, at least 0.4 ppb of marine derived acetone and butanone can reach the upper troposphere, where they may have an important influence on hydrogen oxide radical formation over the western Pacific Ocean.

Description: The Extrapolar SWIFT model is a fast ozone chemistry scheme for interactive calculation of the extrapolar stratospheric ozone layer in coupled general circulation models (GCMs). In contrast to the widely used prescribed ozone, the SWIFT ozone layer interacts with the model dynamics and can respond to atmospheric variability or climatological trends. The Extrapolar SWIFT model employs a repro-modelling approach, where algebraic functions are used to approximate the numerical output of a full stratospheric chemistry and transport model (ATLAS). The full model solves a coupled chemical differential equations system with 55 initial and boundary conditions (mixing ratio of various chemical species and atmospheric parameters). Hence the rate of change of ozone over 24  h is a function of 55 variables. Using covariances between these variables, we can find linear combinations in order to reduce the parameter space to the following nine basic variables: latitude, pressure altitude, temperature, local ozone column, mixing ratio of ozone and of the ozone depleting families (Cly, Bry, NOy and HOy). We will show that these 9 variables are sufficient to characterize the rate of change of ozone. An automated procedure fits a polynomial function of fourth degree to the rate of change of ozone obtained from several simulations with the ATLAS model. One polynomial function is determined per month which yields the rate of change of ozone over 24 h. A key aspect for the robustness of the Extrapolar SWIFT model is to include a wide range of stratospheric variability in the numerical output of the ATLAS model, also covering atmospheric states that will occur in a future climate (e.g. temperature and meridional circulation changes or reduction of stratospheric chlorine loading). For validation purposes, the Extrapolar SWIFT model has been integrated into the ATLAS model replacing the full stratospheric chemistry scheme. Simulations with SWIFT in ATLAS have proven that the systematic error is small and does not accumulate during the course of a simulation. In the context of a 10 year simulation, the ozone layer, simulated by SWIFT, shows a stable annual cycle, with inter-annual variations comparable to the ATLAS model. The application of Extrapolar SWIFT requires the evaluation of polynomial functions with 30–100 terms. Nowadays, computers can calculate such polynomial functions at thousands of model grid points in seconds. SWIFT provides the desired numerical efficiency and computes the ozone layer 104 times faster than the chemistry scheme in the ATLAS CTM.

Description: Ice retreat in the eastern Eurasian Arctic is a consequence of atmospheric and oceanic processes and regional feedback mechanisms acting on the ice cover, both in winter and summer. A correct representation of these processes in numerical models is important, since it will improve predictions of sea ice anomalies along the Northeast Passage and beyond. In this study, we highlight the importance of winter ice dynamics for local summer sea ice anomalies in thickness, volume and extent. By means of airborne sea ice thickness surveys made over pack ice areas in the south-eastern Laptev Sea, we show that years of offshore-directed sea ice transport have a thinning effect on the late-winter sea ice cover. To confirm the preconditioning effect of enhanced offshore advection in late winter on the summer sea ice cover, we perform a sensitivity study using a numerical model. Results verify that the preconditioning effect plays a bigger role for the regional ice extent. Furthermore, they indicate an increase in volume export from the Laptev Sea as a consequence of enhanced offshore advection, which has far-reaching consequences for the entire Arctic sea ice mass balance. Moreover we show that ice dynamics in winter not only preconditions local summer ice extent, but also accelerate fast-ice decay.

Description: We use a comprehensive suite of partially laminated high-resolution sediment cores from the Bering Sea, covering a depth transect from 1100 m to 2700 m to study deglacial surface ocean warming patterns, associated changes in biological productivity, oxygen minimum zone dynamics and continent-ocean links through Yukon river runoff. We apply a combination of planktic and benthic isotopes, x-ray fluorescence (XRF)-derived ele- mental ratios and a multi-proxy assessment of changes in upper ocean temperatures. Severe oxygen depletions occurred during the Bølling/Allerød (B/A) and early Holocene, which is in accordance with other locations in the North Pacific, especially the Alaska margin. Detailed analysis of the timing of lamination occurrence between the different sediment cores revealed that the onset of severe anoxia at the beginning of the B/A and early Holocene is a near-synchronous event, while the disappearance of laminations is a diachronic process. The deglacial Oxygen Minimum Zone(OMZ) strengthening is mainly driven by increased export production, visible in XRF-derived elemental ratios, and corresponding high accumulation rates of biogenic components. The export production in turn is a response to rising sea surface temperatures, decreased sea ice cover and increased thermal stratification, while a major nutrient source was the eastern continental shelf, which was flooded during the deglacial global sea level rise. It is discussed controversially whether oxygenation variations in the deglacial subarctic Pacific were coupled to changes in mid-depth water chemistry, or rather a response to physical processes like deep-intermediate ocean or mixed layer warming, or stratification changes. However, knowledge of the driving forcing mechanism for OMZ strengthening is of particular importance, as these are tightly coupled to the regional marine carbon budget, e.g. via the strength and efficiency of the biological pump. Here, our laminated sediments provided the opportunity to study ocean dynamics in exceptional detail, possible on decadal to annual timescales. Due to the correlation patterns of our records to the NGRIP oxygen isotope record through layer counts we presume that (i) the presence of laminations is tightly coupled to submillennial, short-term warm phases, especially during the Bølling-Allerød (B/A), (ii) that the laminations represent annual layered sediments (varves). The latter point in conjunction with our geochemical proxies strongly supports an atmospheric teleconnection between SE Asia, the North Atlantic and the North Pacific, with observed changes in mid-depth ocean dynamics occurring on fast, nearly decadal timescales. Thus, the Bering Sea OMZ is a highly sensitive system reacting almost instantaneously to small temperature changes and therefore has the potential to influence the global carbon budget on short timescales, in particular during episodes of rapidly warming climate.

Description: The aim of the presented study was to investigate the impact on the radiation budget of a biomass-burning plume, transported from Alaska to the High Arctic region of Ny-Ålesund, Svalbard, in early July 2015. Since the mean aerosol optical depth increased by the factor of 10 above the average summer background values, this large aerosol load event is considered particularly exceptional in the last 25 years. In situ data with hygroscopic growth equations, as well as remote sensing measurements as inputs to radiative transfer models, were used, in order to estimate biases associated with (i) hygroscopicity, (ii) variability of single-scattering albedo profiles, and (iii) plane-parallel closure of the modelled atmosphere. A chemical weather model with satellite-derived biomass-burning emissions was applied to interpret the transport and transformation pathways. The provided MODTRAN radiative transfer model (RTM) simulations for the smoke event (14:00 9 July–11:30 11 July) resulted in a mean aerosol direct radiative forcing at the levels of −78.9 and −47.0 W m ^-2 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively, for the mean value of aerosol optical depth equal to 0.64 at 550 nm. This corresponded to the average clear-sky direct radiative forcing of −43.3 W/m ^2, estimated by radiometer and model simulations at the surface. Ultimately, uncertainty associated with the plane-parallel atmosphere approximation altered results by about 2 W m^−2. Furthermore, model-derived aerosol direct radiative forcing efficiency reached on average −126 W m^−2/τ550 and −71 W^m−2/τ550 at the surface and at the top of the atmosphere, respectively. The heating rate, estimated at up to 1.8 K day^−1 inside the biomass-burning plume, implied vertical mixing with turbulent kinetic energy of 0.3 m^2s^−2

Description: A new 21.3m firn core was drilled in 2015 at a coastal Antarctic high-accumulation site in Adélie Land (66.78◦ S; 139.56◦ E, 602 m a.s.l.), named Terre Adélie 192A (TA192A). The mean isotopic values (−19.3 ‰ ± 3.1 ‰ for δ18O and 5.4 ‰±2.2 ‰ for deuterium excess) are consistent with other coastal Antarctic values. No significant isotope–temperature relationship can be evidenced at any timescale. This rules out a simple interpretation in terms of local temperature. An observed asymmetry in the δ18O seasonal cycle may be explained by the precipitation of air masses coming from the eastern and western sectors in autumn and winter, recorded in the d-excess signal showing outstanding values in austral spring versus autumn. Significant positive trends are observed in the annual d-excess record and local sea ice extent (135–145◦ E) over the period 1998–2014. However, process studies focusing on resulting isotopic compositions and particularly the deuterium excess–δ18O relationship, evidenced as a potential fingerprint of moisture origins, as well as the collection of more isotopic measurements in Adélie Land are needed for an accurate interpretation of our signals.

Description: The timing and intensity of snowmelt processes on sea ice are key drivers determining the seasonal sea-ice energy and mass budgets. In the Arctic, satellite passive microwave and radar observations have revealed a trend towards an earlier snowmelt onset during the last decades, which is an important aspect of Arctic amplification and sea ice decline. Around Antarctica, snowmelt on perennial ice is weak and very different than in the Arctic, with most snow surviving the summer. Here we compile time series of snowmelt-onset dates on seasonal and perennial Antarctic sea ice from 1992 to 2014/15 using active microwave observations from European Remote Sensing Satellite (ERS-1/2), Quick Scatterometer (QSCAT) and Advanced Scatterometer (ASCAT) radar scatterometers. We define two snowmelt transition stages: A weak backscatter rise indicating the initial warming and destructive metamorphism of the snowpack (pre-melt), followed by a rapid backscatter rise indicating the onset of thaw-freeze cycles (snowmelt). Results show large interannual variability with an average pre-melt onset date of 29 November and melt onset of 10 December, respectively, on perennial ice, without any significant trends over the study period, consistent with the small trends of Antarctic sea ice extent. There was a latitudinal gradient from early snowmelt onsets in mid-November in the northern Weddell Sea to late (end-December) or even absent snowmelt conditions in the southern Weddell Sea. We show that QSCAT Ku-band (13.4 GHz signal frequency) derived pre-melt and snowmelt onset dates are earlier by 20 and 18 days, respectively, than ERS and ASCAT C-band (5.6 GHz) derived dates. This offset has been considered when constructing the time series. Snowmelt onset dates from passive microwave observations (37 GHz) are later by 14 and 6 days than those from the scatterometers, respectively. Based on these characteristic differences between melt onset dates observed by different microwave wavelengths, we developed a conceptual model which illustrates how the seasonal evolution of snow temperature profiles may affect different microwave bands with different penetration depths. These suggest that future multi-frequency active/passive microwave satellite missions could be used to resolve melt processes throughout the vertical snow column of thick snow on perennial Antarctic sea ice.

Description: Recent observations of near-surface soil temperatures over the circumpolar Arctic show accelerated warming of permafrost-affected soils. The availability of a comprehensive near-surface permafrost and active layer dataset is critical to better understanding climate impacts and to constraining permafrost thermal conditions and its spatial distribution in land system models. We compiled a soil temperature dataset from 72 monitoring stations in Alaska using data collected by the US Geological Survey, the National Park Service, and the University of Alaska Fairbanks permafrost monitoring networks. The array of monitoring stations spans a large range of latitudes from 60.9 to 71.3 N and elevations from near sea level to~ 1300 m, comprising tundra and boreal forest regions. This dataset consists of monthly ground temperatures at depths up to 1 m, volumetric soil water content, snow depth, and air temperature during 1997–2016. These data have been quality controlled in collection and processing. Meanwhile, we implemented data harmonization evaluation for the processed dataset. The final product (PF-AK, v0. 1) is available at the Arctic Data Center (https://doi. org/10.18739/A2KG55).

Description: Although quantitative isotope data from speleothems has been used to evaluate isotope-enabled model simulations, currently no consensus exists regarding the most appropriate methodology through which to achieve this. A number of modelling groups will be running isotope-enabled palaeoclimate simulations in the framework of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, so it is timely to evaluate different approaches to using the speleothem data for data–model comparisons. Here, we illustrate this using 456 globally distributed speleothem δ18O records from an updated version of the Speleothem Isotopes Synthesis and Analysis (SISAL) database and palaeoclimate simulations generated using the ECHAM5-wiso isotope-enabled atmospheric circulation model. We show that the SISAL records reproduce the first-order spatial patterns of isotopic variability in the modern day, strongly supporting the application of this dataset for evaluating model-derived isotope variability into the past. However, the discontinuous nature of many speleothem records complicates the process of procuring large numbers of records if data–model comparisons are made using the traditional approach of comparing anomalies between a control period and a given palaeoclimate experiment. To circumvent this issue, we illustrate techniques through which the absolute isotope values during any time period could be used for model evaluation. Specifically, we show that speleothem isotope records allow an assessment of a model’s ability to simulate spatial isotopic trends. Our analyses provide a protocol for using speleothem isotope data for model evaluation, including screening the observations to take into account the impact of speleothem mineralogy on δ18O values, the optimum period for the modern observational baseline and the selection of an appropriate time window for creating means of the isotope data for palaeo-time-slices.

Description: We present here the first results, for the preindustrial and mid-Holocene climatological periods, of the newly developed isotope-enhanced version of the fully coupled Earth system model MPI-ESM, called hereafter MPI-ESM-wiso. The water stable isotopes H16O, H18O and HDO have been implemented into all components of the coupled model setup. The mid-Holocene provides the opportunity to evaluate the model response to changes in the seasonal and latitudinal distribution of insolation induced by different orbital forcing conditions. The results of our equilibrium simulations allow us to evaluate the performance of the isotopic model in simulating the spatial and temporal variations of water isotopes in the different compartments of the hydrological system for warm climates. For the preindustrial climate, MPI-ESM-wiso reproduces very well the observed spatial distribution of the isotopic content in precipitation linked to the spatial variations in temperature and precipitation rate. We also find a good model–data agreement with the observed distribution of isotopic composition in surface seawater but a bias with the presence of surface seawater that is too 18O-depleted in the Arctic Ocean. All these results are improved compared to the previous model version ECHAM5/MPIOM. The spatial relationships of water isotopic composition with temperature, precipitation rate and salinity are consistent with observational data. For the preindustrial climate, the interannual relationships of water isotopes with temperature and salinity are globally lower than the spatial ones, consistent with previous studies. Simulated results under mid-Holocene conditions are in fair agreement with the isotopic measurements from ice cores and continental speleothems. MPI-ESM-wiso simulates a decrease in the isotopic composition of precipitation from North Africa to the Tibetan Plateau via India due to the enhanced monsoons during the mid-Holocene. Over Greenland, our simulation indicates a higher isotopic composition of precipitation linked to higher summer temperature and a reduction in sea ice, shown by positive isotope–temperature gradient. For the Antarctic continent, the model simulates lower isotopic values over the East Antarctic plateau, linked to the lower temperatures during the mid-Holocene period, while similar or higher isotopic values are modeled over the rest of the continent. While variations of isotopic contents in precipitation over West Antarctica between mid-Holocene and preindustrial periods are partly controlled by changes in temperature, the transport of relatively 18O-rich water vapor near the coast to the western ice core sites could play a role in the final isotopic composition. So, more caution has to be taken about the reconstruction of past temperature variations during warm periods over this area. The coupling of such a model with an ice sheet model or the use of a zoomed grid centered on this region could help to better describe the role of the water vapor transport and sea ice around West Antarctica. The reconstruction of past salinity through isotopic content in sea surface waters can be complicated for regions with strong ocean dynamics, variations in sea ice regimes or significant changes in freshwater budget, giving an extremely variable relationship between the isotopic content and salinity of ocean surface waters over small spatial scales. These complicating factors demonstrate the complexity of interpreting water isotopes as past climate signals of warm periods like the mid-Holocene. A systematic isotope model intercomparison study for further insights on the model dependency of these results would be beneficial.

Description: Permafrost temperatures are increasing in Alaska due to climate change and in some cases permafrost is thawing and degrading. In areas where degradation has already occurred the effects can be dramatic, resulting in changing ecosystems, carbon release, and damage to infrastructure. However, in many areas we lack baseline data, such as subsurface temperatures, needed to assess future changes and potential risk areas. Besides climate, the physical properties of the vegetation cover and subsurface material have a major influence on the thermal state of permafrost. These properties are often directly related to the type of ecosystem overlaying permafrost. In this paper we demonstrate that classifying the landscape into general ecotypes is an effective way to scale up permafrost thermal data collected from field monitoring sites. Additionally, we find that within some ecotypes the absence of a moss layer is indicative of the absence of near-surface permafrost. As a proof of concept, we used the ground temperature data collected from the field sites to recode an ecotype land cover map into a map of mean annual ground temperature ranges at 1 m depth based on analysis and clustering of observed thermal regimes. The map should be useful for decision making with respect to land use and understanding how the landscape might change under future climate scenarios.

Description: Arctic Amplification of climate warming is caused by various feedback processes in the atmosphere-ocean-ice system and yields the strongest temperature increase during winter in the Arctic North Atlantic region. In our study, we attempt to quantify the advective contribution to the observed atmospheric warming in the Svalbard area. Based on radiosonde measurements from Ny-Ålesund, a strong dependence of the tropospheric temperature on the synoptic flow direction is revealed. Using FLEXTRA backward trajectories, an increase of advection from the lower latitude Atlantic region towards Ny-Ålesund is found that is attributed to a change in atmospheric circulation patterns. We find that about one-quarter (0.45 K per decade) of the observed atmospheric winter near surface warming trend in the North Atlantic region of the Arctic (2 K per decade) is due to increased advection of warm and moist air from the lower latitude Atlantic region, affecting the entire troposphere.

Description: Climate trends in the Antarctic region remain poorly characterized, owing to the brevity and scarcity of direct climate observations and the large magnitude of interannual to decadal-scale climate variability. Here, within the framework of the PAGES Antarctica2k working group, we build an enlarged database of ice core water stable isotope records from Antarctica, consisting of 112 records. We produce both unweighted and weighted isotopic (δ18O) composites and temperature reconstructions since 0 CE, binned at 5- and 10-year resolution, for seven climatically distinct regions covering the Antarctic continent. Following earlier work of the Antarctica2k working group, we also produce composites and reconstructions for the broader regions of East Antarctica, West Antarctica and the whole continent. We use three methods for our temperature reconstructions: (i) a temperature scaling based on the δ18O–temperature relationship output from an ECHAM5-wiso model simulation nudged to ERA-Interim atmospheric reanalyses from 1979 to 2013, and adjusted for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet region to borehole temperature data, (ii) a temperature scaling of the isotopic normalized anomalies to the variance of the regional reanalysis temperature and (iii) a composite-plus-scaling approach used in a previous continent-scale reconstruction of Antarctic temperature since 1 CE but applied to the new Antarctic ice core database. Our new reconstructions confirm a significant cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE across all Antarctic regions where records extend back into the 1st millennium, with the exception of the Wilkes Land coast and Weddell Sea coast regions. Within this long-term cooling trend from 0 to 1900 CE, we find that the warmest period occurs between 300 and 1000 CE, and the coldest interval occurs from 1200 to 1900 CE. Since 1900 CE, significant warming trends are identified for the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, the Dronning Maud Land coast and the Antarctic Peninsula regions, and these trends are robust across the distribution of records that contribute to the unweighted isotopic composites and also significant in the weighted temperature reconstructions. Only for the Antarctic Peninsula is this most recent century-scale trend unusual in the context of natural variability over the last 2000 years. However, projected warming of the Antarctic continent during the 21st century may soon see significant and unusual warming develop across other parts of the Antarctic continent. The extended Antarctica2k ice core isotope database developed by this working group opens up many avenues for developing a deeper understanding of the response of Antarctic climate to natural and anthropogenic climate forcings. The first long-term quantification of regional climate in Antarctica presented herein is a basis for data–model comparison and assessments of past, present and future driving factors of Antarctic climate.

Description: The denudation history of active orogens is often interpreted in the context of modern climate gradients. Here we address the validity of this approach and ask what are the spatial and temporal variations in palaeoclimate for a latitudinally diverse range of active orogens? We do this using high-resolution (T159, ca. 80 × 80 km at the Equator) palaeoclimate simulations from the ECHAM5 global atmospheric general circulation model and a statistical cluster analysis of climate over different orogens (Andes, Himalayas, SE Alaska, Pacific NW USA). Time periods and boundary conditions considered include the Pliocene (PLIO, ∼3Ma), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21ka), mid-Holocene (MH, ∼6ka), and pre-industrial (PI, reference year 1850). The regional simulated climates of each orogen are described by means of cluster analyses based on the variability in precipitation, 2 m air temperature, the intra-annual amplitude of these values, and monsoonal wind speeds where appropriate. Results indicate the largest differences in the PI climate existed for the LGM and PLIO climates in the form of widespread cooling and reduced precipitation in the LGM and warming and enhanced precipitation during the PLIO. The LGM climate shows the largest deviation in annual precipitation from the PI climate and shows enhanced precipitation in the temperate Andes and coastal regions for both SE Alaska and the US Pacific Northwest. Furthermore, LGM precipitation is reduced in the western Himalayas and enhanced in the eastern Himalayas, resulting in a shift of the wettest regional climates eastward along the orogen. The cluster-analysis results also suggest more climatic variability across latitudes east of the Andes in the PLIO climate than in other time slice experiments conducted here. Taken together, these results highlight significant changes in late Cenozoic regional climatology over the last ∼3Myr. Comparison of simulated climate with proxy-based reconstructions for the MH and LGM reveal satisfactory to good performance of the model in reproducing precipitation changes, although in some cases discrepancies between neighbouring proxy observations highlight contradictions between proxy observations themselves. Finally, we document regions where the largest magnitudes of late Cenozoic changes in precipitation and temperature occur and offer the highest potential for future observational studies that quantify the impact of climate change on denudation and weathering rates.

Description: In austral spring 2016 the Antarctic region experienced anomalous sea ice retreat in all sectors, with sea ice extent in October and November 2016 being the lowest in the Southern Hemisphere over the observational period (1979–present). The extreme sea ice retreat was accompanied by widespread warming along the coastal areas as well as in the interior of the Antarctic continent. This exceptional event occurred along with a strong negative phase of the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the moistest and warmest spring on record, over large areas covering the Indian Ocean, the Ross Sea and the Weddell Sea. In October 2016, the positive anomalies of the totally integrated water vapor (IWV) and 2 m air temperature (T2m) over the Indian Ocean, western Pacific, Bellingshausen Sea and southern part of Ross Sea were unprecedented in the last 39 years. In October and November 2016, when the largest magnitude of negative daily sea ice concentration anomalies was observed, repeated episodes of poleward advection of warm and moist air took place. These results suggest the importance of moist and warm air intrusions into the Antarctic region as one of the main contributors to this exceptional sea ice retreat event.

Description: To resolve the mechanisms behind the major climate reorganisation which occurred between 0.9 and 1.2Ma, the recovery of a suitable 1.5 million-year-old ice core is fundamental. The quest for such an Oldest Ice core requires a number of key boundary conditions, of which the poorly known basal geothermal heat flux (GHF) is lacking. We use a transient thermodynamical 1D vertical model that solves for the rate of change of temperature in the vertical, with surface temperature and modelled GHF as boundary conditions. For each point on the ice sheet, the model is forced with variations in atmospheric conditions over the last 2Ma, and modelled ice-thickness variations. The process is repeated for a range of GHF values to determine the value of GHF that marks the limit between frozen and melting conditions over the whole ice sheet, taking into account 2Ma of climate history. These threshold values of GHF are statistically compared to existing GHF data sets. The new probabilistic GHF fields obtained for the ice sheet thus provide the missing boundary conditions in the search for Oldest Ice. High spatial resolution radar data are examined locally in the Dome Fuji and Dome C regions, as these represent the ice core community's primary drilling sites. GHF, bedrock variability, ice thickness and other essential criteria combined highlight a dozen major potential Oldest Ice sites in the vicinity of Dome Fuji and Dome C, where GHF allows for Oldest Ice.

Description: Polar ice core water isotope records are commonly used to infer past changes in Antarctic temperature, motivating an improved understanding and quantification of the temporal relationship between δ18O and temperature. This can be achieved using simulations performed by atmospheric general circulation models equipped with water stable isotopes. Here, we evaluate the skills of the high-resolution water-isotope-enabled atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5-wiso (the European Centre Hamburg Model) nudged to European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis using simulations covering the period 1960–2013 over the Antarctic continent. We compare model outputs with field data, first with a focus on regional climate variables and second on water stable isotopes, using our updated dataset of water stable isotope measurements from precipitation, snow, and firn–ice core samples. ECHAM5-wiso simulates a large increase in temperature from 1978 to 1979, possibly caused by a discontinuity in the European Reanalyses (ERA) linked to the assimilation of remote sensing data starting in 1979. Although some model–data mismatches are observed, the (precipitation minus evaporation) outputs are found to be realistic products for surface mass balance. A warm model bias over central East Antarctica and a cold model bias over coastal regions explain first-order δ18O model biases by too strong isotopic depletion on coastal areas and underestimated depletion inland. At the second order, despite these biases, ECHAM5-wiso correctly captures the observed spatial patterns of deuterium excess. The results of model–data comparisons for the inter-annual δ18O standard deviation difer when using precipitation or ice core data. Further studies should explore the importance of deposition and post-deposition processes affecting ice core signals and not resolved in the model. These results build trust in the use of ECHAM5-wiso outputs to investigate the spatial, seasonal, and inter-annual δ18O–temperature relationships. We thus make the first Antarctica-wide synthesis of prior results. First, we show that local spatial or seasonal slopes are not a correct surrogate for inter-annual temporal slopes, leading to the conclusion that the same isotope–temperature slope cannot be applied for the climatic interpretation of Antarctic ice core for all timescales. Finally, we explore the phasing between the seasonal cycles of deuterium excess and δ18O as a source of information on changes in moisture sources affecting the δ18O–temperature relationship. The few available records and ECHAM5-wiso show different phase relationships in coastal, intermediate, and central regions. This work evaluates the use of the ECHAM5-wiso model as a tool for the investigation of water stable isotopes in Antarctic precipitation and calls for extended studies to improve our understanding of such proxies.

Description: The effect of external forcings on atmospheric circulation is debated. Due to the short observational period, the analysis of the role of external forcings is hampered, making it difficult to assess the sensitivity of atmospheric circulation to external forcings, as well as persistence of the effects. In observations, the average response to tropical volcanic eruptions is a positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during the following winter. However, past major tropical eruptions exceeding the magnitude of eruptions during the instrumental era could have had more lasting effects. Decadal NAO variability has been suggested to follow the 11-year solar cycle, and linkages have been made between grand solar minima and negative NAO. However, the solar link to NAO found by modeling studies is not unequivocally supported by reconstructions, and is not consistently present in observations for the 20th century. Here we present a reconstruction of atmospheric winter circulation for the North Atlantic region covering the period 1241–1970 CE. Based on seasonally resolved Greenland ice core records and a 1200-year-long simulation with an isotope-enabled climate model, we reconstruct sea level pressure and temperature by matching the spatiotemporal variability in the modeled isotopic composition to that of the ice cores. This method allows us to capture the primary (NAO) and secondary mode (Eastern Atlantic Pattern) of atmospheric circulation in the North Atlantic region, while, contrary to previous reconstructions, preserving the amplitude of observed year-to-year atmospheric variability. Our results show five winters of positive NAO on average following major tropical volcanic eruptions, which is more persistent than previously suggested. In response to decadal minima of solar activity we find a high-pressure anomaly over northern Europe, while a reinforced opposite response in pressure emerges with a 5-year time lag. On centennial timescales we observe a similar response of circulation as for the 5-year time-lagged response, with a high-pressure anomaly across North America and south of Greenland. This response to solar forcing is correlated to the second mode of atmospheric circulation, the Eastern Atlantic Pattern. The response could be due to an increase in blocking frequency, possibly linked to a weakening of the subpolar gyre. The long-term anomalies of temperature during solar minima shows cooling across Greenland, Iceland and western Europe, resembling the cooling pattern during the Little Ice Age (1450–1850 CE). While our results show significant correlation between solar forcing and the secondary circulation pattern on decadal (r = 0.29, p 〈 0.01) and centennial timescales (r = 0.6, p 〈 0.01), we find no consistent relationship between solar forcing and NAO. We conclude that solar and volcanic forcing impacts different modes of our reconstructed atmospheric circulation, which can aid in separating the regional effects of forcings and understanding the underlying mechanisms.

Description: North Pacific Intermediate water (NPIW) is a dominant water mass controlling ∼400-1200m depth North Pacific Ocean, meanwhile there is a cessation of North Pacific deep water (NPDW) formation in in modern observations. In contrast, paleoceanographic evidences have recorded NPDW formations during last glacial periods. This sug- gests either a rapid or gradual shutting down process of NPDW formation during the last deglaciation. Here, we use an Earth System Model to diagnose the physical and corresponding biogeochemical evolutions in the North Pacific Ocean before and after the last deglaciation, as well as potential changes during rapid climate shifts of the last deglaciation. Linked to different background climate conditions and varying Atlantic Meridional Over- turning Circulation states, we characterize the modelled NPIW and NPDW changes and builds up linkages to marine records. Our results further develop our understanding about the deglacial switch from NPDW to modern NPIW-only formation process.

Description: Permafrost presence is determined by a complex interaction of climatic, topographic, and ecological conditions operating over long time scales. In particular, vegetation and organic layer characteristics may act to protect permafrost in regions with a mean annual air temperature (MAAT) above 0°C. In this study, we document the presence of residual permafrost plateaus in the western Kenai Peninsula lowlands of south-central Alaska, a region with a MAAT of 1.5+/-1 °C (1981–2010). Continuous ground temperature measurements between 16 September 2012 and 15 September 2015, using calibrated thermistor strings, documented the presence of warm permafrost (-0.04 to -0.08 °C). Field measurements (probing) on several plateau features during the fall of 2015 showed that the depth to the permafrost table averaged 1.48m but at some locations was as shallow as 0.53 m. Late winter surveys (augering, coring, and GPR) in 2016 showed that the average seasonally frozen ground thickness was 0.45 m, overlying a talik above the permafrost table. Measured permafrost thickness ranged from 0.33 to 〉6.90 m. Manual interpretation of historic aerial photography acquired in 1950 indicates that residual permafrost plateaus covered 920 ha as mapped across portions of four wetland complexes encompassing 4810 ha. However, between 1950 and ca. 2010, permafrost plateau extent decreased by 60.0 %, with lateral feature degradation accounting for 85.0% of the reduction in area. Permafrost loss on the Kenai Peninsula is likely associated with a warming climate, wildfires that remove the protective forest and organic layer cover, groundwater flow at depth, and lateral heat transfer from wetland surface waters in the summer. Better understanding the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem-protected permafrost is critical for mapping and predicting future permafrost extent and degradation across all permafrost regions that are currently warming. Further work should focus on reconstructing permafrost history in south-central Alaska as well as additional contemporary observations of these ecosystem-protected permafrost sites south of the regions with relatively stable permafrost.

Description: Abstract. When combined, the three-dimensional imaging of different physical properties of architectural monumen- tal structures acquired through different methodologies can highlight with efficiency the characteristics of the stone building materials. In this work, we compound high res- olution Digital Color Images (DCI) and Terrestrial Laser Scanner (TLS) data for a dense 3-D reconstruction of an ancient pillar in a nineteenth century building in the town of Cagliari, Italy. The TLS technique was supported by a digital photogrammetry survey in order to obtain a natural color texturized 3-D model of the studied pillar. Geometri- cal anomaly maps showing interesting analogies were com- puted both from the 3-D model derived from the TLS ap- plication and from the high resolution 3-D model detected with the photogrammetry. Starting from the 3-D reconstruc- tion from previous techniques, an acoustic tomography in a sector of prior interest of the investigated architectural ele- ment was planned and carried out. The ultrasonic tomogra- phy proved to be an effective tool for detecting internal decay or defects, locating the position of the anomalies and estimat- ing their sizes, shapes, and characteristics in terms of elastic- mechanical properties. Finally, the combination of geophysi- cal and petrographical data sets represents a powerful method for understanding the quality of the building stone materials in the shallow and inner parts of the investigated architectural structures.

Description: Regione Autonoma della Sardegna (RAS) (Sardinian Autonomous Region), Regional Law 7th August 2007, no. 7, Promotion of scientific research and technological innovation in Sardinia (Italy).

Description: Published

Description: 57-62

Description: 5T. Sismologia, geofisica e geologia per l'ingegneria sismica

Description: JCR Journal

Description: Hydrothermal lakes are a very common feature in volcanic environments, and among these lake Specchio di Venere (Pantelleria island, Italy) has attracted the interest of several researchers due to its peculiar characteristics. With the aim of improving the knowledge of its mineralogy, our work pointed out the characterisation of the bottom lake sediments. We collected and analysed 5 sediments cores around the shoreline, determining the mineralogical phases, concentration of major, minor, and trace elements, and the isotopic composition of carbon and oxygen in the carbonate phases. Our findings remarked a general compositional homogeneity in both the vertical and horizontal distribution of mineral phases, with the exception of peculiar geological niches connoted by biological and hydrothermal activities.

Description: Published

Description: ID 8414581

Description: 4V. Vulcani e ambiente

Description: JCR Journal

Description: open

Description: The Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia runs the Italian National Seismic Network (about 400 stations, seismometers, accelerometers and GPS antennas) and other networks at national scale for monitoring earthquakes and tsunami as a part of the National Civil Protection System coordinated by the Italian Department of Civil Protection. This work summarises the acquisition and the distribution of the data and the analysis that are carried out for seismic surveillance and tsunami alert.

Description: INGV and DPC

Description: Published

Description: 31-38

Description: 1IT. Reti di monitoraggio

Description: N/A or not JCR

Description: Permafrost presence is determined by a complex interaction of climatic, topographic, and ecological conditions operating over long time scales. In particular, vegetation and organic layer characteristics may act to protect permafrost in regions with a mean annual air temperature (MAAT) above 0 °C. In this study, we document the presence of residual permafrost plateaus on the western Kenai Peninsula lowlands of southcentral Alaska, a region with a MAAT of 1.5 ± 1 °C (1981 to 2010). Continuous ground temperature measurements between 16 September 2012 and 15 September 2015, using calibrated thermistor strings, documented the presence of warm permafrost (−0.04 to −0.08 °C). Field measurements (probing) on several plateau features during the fall of 2015 showed that the depth to the permafrost table averaged 1.48 m but was as shallow as 0.53 m. Late winter surveys (drilling, coring, and GPR) in 2016 showed that the average seasonally frozen ground thickness was 0.45 m, overlying a talik above the permafrost table. Measured permafrost thickness ranged from 0.33 to 〉 6.90 m. Manual interpretation of historic aerial photography acquired in 1950 indicates that residual permafrost plateaus covered 920 ha as mapped across portions of four wetland complexes encompassing 4810 ha. However, between 1950 and ca. 2010, permafrost plateau extent decreased by 60 %, with lateral feature degradation accounting for 85 % of the reduction in area. Permafrost loss on the Kenai Peninsula is likely associated with a warming climate, wildfires that remove the protective forest and organic layer cover, groundwater flow at depth, and lateral heat transfer from wetland surface waters in the summer. Better understanding the resilience and vulnerability of ecosystem-protected permafrost is critical for mapping and predicting future permafrost extent and degradation across all permafrost regions that are currently warming. Further work should focus on reconstructing permafrost history in southcentral Alaska as well as additional contemporary observations of these ecosystem-protected permafrost sites lying south of the regions with relatively stable permafrost.

Description: Whereas ice cores from high-accumulation sites in coastal Antarctica clearly demonstrate annual layering, it is debated whether a seasonal signal is also preserved in ice cores from lower-accumulation sites further inland and particularly on the East Antarctic Plateau. In this study, we examine 5 m of early Holocene ice from the Dome Fuji (DF) ice core at a high temporal resolution by continuous flow analysis. The ice was continuously analysed for concentrations of dust, sodium, ammonium, liquid conductivity, and water isotopic composition. Furthermore, a dielectric profiling was performed on the solid ice. In most of the analysed ice, the multi-parameter impurity data set appears to resolve the seasonal variability although the identification of annual layers is not always unambiguous. The study thus provides information on the snow accumulation process in central East Antarctica. A layer counting based on the same principles as those previously applied to the NGRIP (North Greenland Ice core Project) and the Antarctic EPICA (European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica) Dronning Maud Land (EDML) ice cores leads to a mean annual layer thickness for the DF ice of 3.0 ± 0.3 cm that compares well to existing estimates. The measured DF section is linked to the EDML ice core through a characteristic pattern of three significant acidity peaks that are present in both cores. The corresponding section of the EDML ice core has recently been dated by annual layer counting and the number of years identified independently in the two cores agree within error estimates. We therefore conclude that, to first order, the annual signal is preserved in this section of the DF core. This case study demonstrates the feasibility of determining annually deposited strata on the central East Antarctic Plateau. It also opens the possibility of resolving annual layers in the Eemian section of Antarctic ice cores where the accumulation is estimated to have been greater than in the Holocene. © Author(s) 2015.

Description: The widely used detailed SNOWPACK model has undergone constant development over the years. A notable recent extension is the introduction of a Richards equation (RE) solver as an alternative for the bucket-type approach for describing water transport in the snow and soil layers. In addition, continuous updates of snow settling and new snow density parameterizations have changed model behavior. This study presents a detailed evaluation of model performance against a comprehensive multiyear data set from Weissfluhjoch near Davos, Switzerland. The data set is collected by automatic meteorological and snowpack measurements and manual snow profiles. During the main winter season, snow height (RMSE: 〈 4.2 cm), snow water equivalent (SWE, RMSE: 〈 40 mm w.e.), snow temperature distributions (typical deviation with measurements: 〈 1.0 °C) and snow density (typical deviation with observations: 〈 50 kg m−3) as well as their temporal evolution are well simulated in the model and the influence of the two water transport schemes is small. The RE approach reproduces internal differences over capillary barriers but fails to predict enough grain growth since the growth routines have been calibrated using the bucket scheme in the original SNOWPACK model. However, the agreement in both density and grain size is sufficient to parameterize the hydraulic properties successfully. In the melt season, a pronounced underestimation of typically 200 mm w.e. in SWE is found. The discrepancies between the simulations and the field data are generally larger than the differences between the two water transport schemes. Nevertheless, the detailed comparison of the internal snowpack structure shows that the timing of internal temperature and water dynamics is adequately and better represented with the new RE approach when compared to the conventional bucket scheme. On the contrary, the progress of the meltwater front in the snowpack as detected by radar and the temporal evolution of the vertical distribution of melt forms in manually observed snow profiles do not support this conclusion. This discrepancy suggests that the implementation of RE partly mimics preferential flow effects.

Description: This paper describes ESM-SnowMIP, an international coordinated modelling effort to evaluate current snow schemes, including snow schemes that are included in Earth system models, in a wide variety of settings against local and global observations. The project aims to identify crucial processes and characteristics that need to be improved in snow models in the context of local- and global-scale modelling. A further objective of ESM-SnowMIP is to better quantify snow-related feedbacks in the Earth system. Although it is not part of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), ESM-SnowMIP is tightly linked to the CMIP6-endorsed Land Surface, Snow and Soil Moisture Model Intercomparison (LS3MIP).

Description: In this study, we present results obtained from modelling the mid-Pliocene warm period using the Community Earth System Models (COSMOS, version: COSMOS-landveg r2413, 2009) with the two different sets of boundary conditions prescribed for the two phases of the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Boundary conditions, model forcing, and modelling methodology of the two phases of PlioMIP, tagged PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2,differ considerably in palaeogeography, in particular with regards to the state of ocean gateways, ice-masks, vegetation and topography. Further differences between model setups as suggested for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2 consider updates to the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), that is specified as 405 and 400 parts per million by volume (ppmv) for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2, respectively, as well as minor differences in the concentrations of methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) due to changes in the protocol of the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) from phase 3 to phase 4. With this manuscript, we bridge the gap between our contributions to PlioMIP1 (Stepanek and Lohmann, 2012) and PlioMIP2 (Stepanek et al., 2019). We highlight some of the effects that differences in the chosen Mid-Pliocene model setup (PlioMIP2 vs. PlioMIP1) have on the climate state as derived with the COSMOS, as this information will be valuable in the framework of the model-model and model-data-comparison within PlioMIP2. We evaluate the model sensitivity to improved mid-Pliocene boundary conditions using PlioMIP’s core mid-Pliocene experiments for PlioMIP1 and PlioMIP2, and present further simulations where we test model sensitivity to variations in palaeogeography, orbit and concentration of CO2. Firstly,we highlight major changes in boundary conditions from PlioMIP1 to PlioMIP2 and also the limitations recorded from the initial effort. The results derived from of our simulations show that COSMOS simulates a mid-Pliocene climate state that is 0.08 K colder in PlioMIP2, if compared to PlioMIP1. On one hand, high-latitude warming,which is supported by proxy evidence of the mid-Pliocene, is underestimated in simulations of both PlioMIP1 andPlioMIP2. On the other hand, spatial variations in surface air temperature (SAT), sea surface temperature (SST) as well as the distribution of sea ice suggest improvement of simulated SAT and SST in PlioMIP2 if employing the updated palaeogeography. The PlioMIP2 Mid-Pliocene simulation produces warmer SSTs in the Arctic and North Atlantic Ocean than derived from the respective PlioMIP1 climate state. The difference in prescribed CO2accountsfor 1.1 K of warming in the Arctic, leading to an ice-free summer in the PlioMIP1 simulation, and a quasi-ice-free summer in PlioMIP2. Furthermore, employing different orbital forcings in simulating the Mid-Pliocene lead to pronounced annual and seasonal variations, which is not accounted for by marine and terrestrial reconstruction of the time-slice.

Description: The Antarctic temperature changes over the past millennia remain more uncertain than in many other continental regions. This has several origins: (1) the number of high-resolution ice cores is small, in particular on the East Antarctic plateau and in some coastal areas in East Antarctica; (2) the short and spatially sparse instrumental records limit the calibration period for reconstructions and the assessment of the methodologies; (3) the link between isotope records from ice cores and local climate is usually complex and dependent on the spatial scales and timescales investigated. Here, we use climate model results, pseudo-proxy experiments and data assimilation experiments to assess the potential for reconstructing the Antarctic temperature over the last 2 millennia based on a new database of stable oxygen isotopes in ice cores compiled in the frame- work of Antarctica2k (Stenni et al., 2017). The well-known covariance between δ18O and temperature is reproduced in the two isotope-enabled models used (ECHAM5/MPI-OM and ECHAM5-wiso), but is generally weak over the different Antarctic regions, limiting the skill of the reconstructions. Furthermore, the strength of the link displays large variations over the past millennium, further affecting the potential skill of temperature reconstructions based on statistical methods which rely on the assumption that the last decades are a good estimate for longer temperature reconstructions. Using a data assimilation technique allows, in theory, for changes in the δ18O–temperature link through time and space to be taken into account. Pseudoproxy experiments confirm the benefits of using data assimilation methods instead of statistical methods that provide reconstructions with unrealistic variances in some Antarctic subregions. They also confirm that the relatively weak link between both variables leads to a limited potential for reconstructing temperature based on δ18O. However, the reconstruction skill is higher and more uniform among reconstruction methods when the reconstruction target is the Antarctic as a whole rather than smaller Antarctic subregions. This consistency between the methods at the large scale is also observed when reconstructing temperature based on the real δ18O regional composites of Stenni et al. (2017). In this case, temperature reconstructions based on data assimilation confirm the long-term cooling over Antarctica during the last millennium, and the later onset of anthropogenic warming compared with the simulations without data assimilation, which is especially visible in West Antarctica. Data assimilation also allows for models and direct observations to be reconciled by reproducing the east–west contrast in the recent temperature trends. This recent warming pattern is likely mostly driven by internal variability given the large spread of individual Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP)/Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model realizations in simulating it. As in the pseudoproxy framework, the reconstruction methods perform differently at the subregional scale, especially in terms of the variance of the time series produced. While the potential benefits of using a data assimilation method instead of a statistical method have been highlighted in a pseudoproxy framework, the instrumental series are too short to confirm this in a realistic setup.

Description: A still open question is how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing (equilibrium climate sensitivity S) is depending on background climate. We here bring paleo-data based evidence on the state-dependency of S by using CO2 proxy data together with model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years. We find that the land-ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcings depends on the CO2 data set used. Over the last 2 million years the combined S_[CO2,LI] from CO2 and land-ice albedo forcing is state-dependent and during interglacials at least twice as high as during glacials, thus CO2 doubling leads to an interglacial warming of 5 K. In the Pliocene data uncertainties prevents a well-supported calculation, but our analysis suggests that S_[CO2,LI] during a land-ice free northern hemisphere was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene.

Description: Thermokarst lakes are typical features of the northern permafrost ecosystems, and play an important role in the thermal exchange between atmosphere and subsurface. The objective of this study is to describe the main thermal processes of the lakes and to quantify the heat exchange with the underlying sediments. The thermal regimes of five lakes located within the continuous permafrost zone of northern Siberia (Lena River Delta) were investigated using hourly water temperature and water level records covering a 3-year period (2009–2012), together with bathymetric survey data. The lakes included thermokarst lakes located on Holocene river terraces that may be connected to Lena River water during spring flooding, and a thermokarst lake located on deposits of the Pleistocene Ice Complex. Lakes were covered by ice up to 2 m thick that persisted for more than 7 months of the year, from October until about mid-June. Lake-bottom temperatures increased at the start of the ice-covered period due to upward-directed heat flux from the underlying thawed sediment. Prior to ice break-up, solar radiation effectively warmed the water beneath the ice cover and induced convective mixing. Ice break-up started at the beginning of June and lasted until the middle or end of June. Mixing occurred within the entire water column from the start of ice break-up and continued during the ice-free periods, as confirmed by the Wedderburn numbers, a quantitative measure of the balance between wind mixing and stratification that is important for describing the biogeochemical cycles of lakes. The lake thermal regime was modeled numerically using the FLake model. The model demonstrated good agreement with observations with regard to the mean lake temperature, with a good reproduction of the summer stratification during the ice-free period, but poor agreement during the ice-covered period. Modeled sensitivity to lake depth demonstrated that lakes in this climatic zone with mean depths 〉 5 m develop continuous stratification in summer for at least 1 month. The modeled vertical heat flux across the bottom sediment tends towards an annual mean of zero, with maximum downward fluxes of about 5 W m−2 in summer and with heat released back into the water column at a rate of less than 1 W m−2 during the ice-covered period. The lakes are shown to be efficient heat absorbers and effectively distribute the heat through mixing. Monthly bottom water temperatures during the ice-free period range up to 15 °C and are therefore higher than the associated monthly air or ground temperatures in the surrounding frozen permafrost landscape. The investigated lakes remain unfrozen at depth, with mean annual lake-bottom temperatures of between 2.7 and 4 °C.

Description: Ice-wedge polygons are common features of lowland tundra in the continuous permafrost zone and prone to rapid degradation through melting of ground ice. There are many interrelated processes involved in ice-wedge thermokarst and it is a major challenge to quantify their influence on the stability of the permafrost underlying the landscape. In this study we used a numerical modelling approach to investigate the degradation of ice wedges with a focus on the influence of hydrological conditions. Our study area was Samoylov Island in the Lena River delta of northern Siberia, for which we had in situ measurements to evaluate the model. The tailored version of the CryoGrid 3 land surface model was capable of simulating the changing microtopography of polygonal tundra and also regarded lateral fluxes of heat, water, and snow. We demonstrated that the approach is capable of simulating ice-wedge degradation and the associated transition from a low-centred to a high-centred polygonal microtopography. The model simulations showed ice-wedge degradation under recent climatic conditions of the study area, irrespective of hydrological conditions. However, we found that wetter conditions lead to an earlier onset of degradation and cause more rapid ground subsidence. We set our findings in correspondence to observed types of ice-wedge polygons in the study area and hypothesized on remaining discrepancies between modelled and observed ice-wedge thermokarst activity. Our quantitative approach provides a valuable complement to previous, more qualitative and conceptual, descriptions of the possible pathways of ice-wedge polygon evolution. We concluded that our study is a blueprint for investigating thermokarst landforms and marks a step forward in understanding the complex interrelationships between various processes shaping ice-rich permafrost landscapes.

Description: Warming of the Arctic led to an increase in permafrost temperatures by about 0.3 �C during the last decade. Permafrost warming is associated with increasing sediment water content, permeability, and diffusivity and could in the long term alter microbial community composition and abundance even before permafrost thaws. We studied the long-term effect (up to 2500 years) of submarine permafrost warming on microbial communities along an onshore–offshore transect on the Siberian Arctic Shelf displaying a natural temperature gradient of more than 10 �C. We analysed the in situ development of bacterial abundance and community composition through total cell counts (TCCs), quantitative PCR of bacterial gene abundance, and amplicon sequencing and correlated the microbial community data with temperature, pore water chemistry, and sediment physicochemical parameters. On timescales of centuries, permafrost warming coincided with an overall decreasing microbial abundance, whereas millennia after warming microbial abundance was similar to cold onshore permafrost. In addition, the dissolved organic carbon content of all cores was lowest in submarine permafrost after millennial-scale warming. Based on correlation analysis, TCC, unlike bacterial gene abundance, showed a significant rank-based negative correlation with increasing temperature, while bacterial gene copy numbers showed a strong negative correlation with salinity. Bacterial community composition correlated only weakly with temperature but strongly with the pore water stable isotopes �18O and �D, as well as with depth. The bacterial community showed substantial spatial variation and an overall dominance of Actinobacteria, Chloroflexi, Firmicutes, Gemmatimonadetes, and Proteobacteria, which are amongst the microbial taxa that were also found to be active in other frozen permafrost environments. We suggest that, millennia after permafrost warming by over 10 �C, microbial community composition and abundance show some indications for proliferation but mainly reflect the sedimentation history and paleoenvironment and not a direct effect through warming.

Description: Deformation of ice in continental sized ice sheets determines the flow behavior of ice towards the sea. Basal dislocation glide is assumed to be the dominant deformation mechanism in the creep deformation of natural ice, but non-basal glide is active as well. Knowledge of what types of deformation mechanisms are active in polar ice is critical in predicting the response of ice sheets in future warmer climates and its contribution to sea level rise, because the activity of deformation mechanisms depends critically on deformation conditions (such as temperature) as well as on the material properties (such as grain size). One of the methods to study the deformation mechanisms in natural materials is Electron Backscattered Diffraction (EBSD). We obtained ca. 50 EBSD maps of five different depths from a Greenlandic ice core (NEEM). The step size varied between 8 and 25 micron depending on the size of the deformation features. The size of the maps varied from 2000 to 10000 grid point. Indexing rates were up to 95%, partially by saving and reanalyzing the EBSP patterns. With this method we can characterize subgrain boundaries and determine the lattice rotation configurations of each individual subgrain. Combining these observations with arrangement/geometry of subgrain boundaries the dislocation types can be determined, which form these boundaries. Three main types of subgrain boundaries have been recognized in Antarctic (EDML) ice core (Weikusat et al. 2010, 2011). Here, we present the first results obtained from EBSD measurements performed on the NEEM ice core samples from the last glacial period, focusing on the relevance of dislocation activity of the possible slip systems. Preliminary results show that all three subgrain types, recognized in the EDML core, occur in the NEEM samples. In addition to the classical boundaries made up of basal dislocations, subgrain boundaries made of non-basal dislocations are also common.

Description: Ice is a common mineral at the Earth’s surface. How much ice is stored in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets depends on its mechanical properties. Therefore properties of ice directly impact on human society through its role in controlling sea level. The bulk behaviour of large ice masses is the result of the behaviour of the ensemble of individual ice grains. This is strongly influenced by the viscoplastic anisotropy of these grains and their lattice orientation. Numerical modelling provides a better insight into the mechanics of ice from the micro to the ice sheet scale. We present numerical simulations that predict the microstructural evolution of an aggregate of pure ice grains at different strain rates. We simulate co-axial deformation and dynamic recrystallization up to large strain using a full-field approach. The crystal plasticity code (Lebensohn et al., 2009) is used to calculate the response of a polycrystalline aggregate that deforms by purely dislocation glide, applying a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT). This code is coupled with the ELLE microstructural modelling platform to include intracrystalline recovery, as well as grain boundary migration driven by the reduction of surface and strain energies. The results show a strong effect of recrystallization on the final microstructure, producing larger and more equiaxed grains, with smooth boundaries. This effect does not significantly modify the single-maximum pattern of c-axes that are distributed at a low angle to the shortening direction. However, in experiments with significant recrystallization the a-axes rotate towards the elongation axis at the same time as the c-axes rotate towards the compression axis. If slip systems on prismatic and/or pyramidal planes are active, it is thought that a-axes gradually concentrate with depth (Miyamoto, 2005). The bulk activity of the slip systems is different depending on the relative activity of deformation versus recrystallization: the non-basal slip systems are more active at high strain in experiments with dynamic recrystallization compared to those experiments with low recrystallization activity.

Description: The ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica contain a significant amount of air within their upper approximately thousand meters and air hydrates below. While this air is still in exchange with the atmosphere in the permeable firn, the gas is entrapped at the firn-ice transition at 60 – 120 m depth. Understanding the dominant deformation mechanisms is essential to interpret paleo-atmosphere records and to allow a more realistic model of ice sheet dynamics. Recent research shows how the presence of air bubbles can significantly influence microdynamical processes such as grain growth and grain boundary migration (Azuma et al., 2012, Roessiger et al., 2014). Therefore, numerical modelling was performed focussing on the mechanical properties of ice with air inclusions and the implications of the presence of bubbles on recrystallisation. The full-field crystal plasticity code of Lebensohn (2001), using a Fast Fourier Transform (FFT), was coupled to the 2D numerical microstructural modelling platform Elle, following the approach by Griera et al. (2013), and used to simulate dynamic recrystallization of pure ice (Montagnat et al., 2013). FFT calculates the viscoplastic response of polycrystalline and polyphase materials that deform by dislocation glide, takes into account the mechanical anisotropy of ice and calculates dislocation densities using the local gradient of the strain-rate field. Incorporating a code for polyphase grain boundary migration driven by surface and internal strain energy reduction, based on the methodology of Becker et al. (2008) and Roessiger et al. (2014), now also enables us to model deformation of ice with air bubbles. The presence of bubbles leads to an increase in strain localization, which reduces the bulk strength of the bubbly ice. In the absence of dynamic recrystallisation, air bubbles quickly collapse at low strains and spherical to elliptical bubble shapes are only maintained when recrystallisation is activated. Our modelling confirms that strain-induced grain boundary migration already occurs in the uppermost levels of ice sheets (Kipfstuhl et al. 2009, Weikusat et al. 2009).

Description: Ice cores are the only climate archives incorporating paleo-atmosphere as individual gas inclusions, enabling the extraction and analysis of the contained gasses. A firm understanding of the processes involved is mandatory for a reliable interpretation of the gas records. One prominent process is the transition from air bubbles to crystalline air hydrates, which is known to influence, at least temporarily, the gas mixing ratios by diffusion and fractionation. This transition is still not understood completely and the existing theories do not explain the large diversity of observed hydrate morphologies. Raman tomographic measurements using the AWI cryo-Raman system provide 3D reconstructions of air hydrate morphologies. The results show complex growth structures that emphasize the importance of crystallography, microstructure and ice rheology for the hydrate formation process. Accurate hydrate volumes can be calculated from the 3D objects, improving the estimates of total gas contents.

Description: The Asian monsoon system is an important tipping element in Earth's climate with a large impact on human societies in the past and present. In light of the potentially severe impacts of present and future anthropogenic climate change on Asian hydrology, it is vital to understand the forcing mechanisms of past climatic regime shifts in the Asian monsoon domain. Here we use novel recurrence network analysis techniques for detecting episodes with pronounced non-linear changes in Holocene Asian monsoon dynamics recorded in speleothems from caves distributed throughout the major branches of the Asian monsoon system. A newly developed multi-proxy methodology explicitly considers dating uncertainties with the COPRA (COnstructing Proxy Records from Age models) approach and allows for detection of continental-scale regime shifts in the complexity of monsoon dynamics. Several epochs are characterised by non-linear regime shifts in Asian monsoon variability, including the periods around 8.5–7.9, 5.7–5.0, 4.1–3.7, and 3.0–2.4 ka BP. The timing of these regime shifts is consistent with known episodes of Holocene rapid climate change (RCC) and high-latitude Bond events. Additionally, we observe a previously rarely reported non-linear regime shift around 7.3 ka BP, a timing that matches the typical 1.0–1.5 ky return intervals of Bond events. A detailed review of previously suggested links between Holocene climatic changes in the Asian monsoon domain and the archaeological record indicates that, in addition to previously considered longer-term changes in mean monsoon intensity and other climatic parameters, regime shifts in monsoon complexity might have played an important role as drivers of migration, pronounced cultural changes, and the collapse of ancient human societies.

Description: Thermokarst lakes are important emitters of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. However, accurate estimation of methane flux from thermokarst lakes is difficult due to their remoteness and observational challenges associated with the heterogeneous nature of ebullition (bubbling). We used multi-temporal high-resolution (9–11 cm) aerial images of an interior Alaskan thermokarst lake, Goldstream Lake, acquired 2 and 4 days following freeze-up in 2011 and 2012, respectively, to characterize methane ebullition seeps and to estimate whole-lake ebullition. Bubbles impeded by the lake ice sheet form distinct white patches as a function of bubbling rate vs. time as ice thickens. Our aerial imagery thus captured in a single snapshot the ebullition events that occurred before the image acquisition. Image analysis showed that low-flux A- and B-type seeps are associated with low brightness patches and are statistically distinct from high-flux C-type and Hotspot seeps associated with high brightness patches. Mean whole-lake ebullition based on optical image analysis in combination with bubble-trap flux measurements was estimated to be 174 ± 28 and 216 ± 33 mL gas m−2 d−1 for the years 2011 and 2012, respectively. A large number of seeps demonstrated spatio-temporal stability over our two-year study period. A strong inverse exponential relationship (R2 ≥ 0.79) was found between percent surface area of lake ice covered with bubble patches and distance from the active thermokarst lake margin. Our study shows that optical remote sensing is a powerful tool to map ebullition seeps on lake ice, to identify their relative strength of ebullition and to assess their spatio-temporal variability.

Description: The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a synthesis effort providing regular compilations of surface to bottom ocean biogeochemical data, with an emphasis on seawater inorganic carbon chemistry and related variables determined through chemical analysis of water samples. This update of GLODAPv2, v2.2019, adds data from 116 cruises to the previous version, extending its coverage in time from 2013 to 2017, while also adding some data from prior years. GLODAPv2.2019 includes measurements from more than 1.1 million water samples from the global oceans collected on 840 cruises. The data for the 12 GLODAP core variables (salinity, oxygen, nitrate, silicate, phosphate, dissolved inorganic carbon, total alkalinity, pH, CFC-11, CFC-12, CFC-113, and CCl4) have undergone extensive quality control, especially systematic evaluation of bias. The data are available in two formats: (i) as submitted by the data originator but updated to WOCE exchange format and (ii) as a merged data product with adjustments applied to minimize bias. These adjustments were derived by comparing the data from the 116 new cruises with the data from the 724 quality-controlled cruises of the GLODAPv2 data product. They correct for errors related to measurement, calibration, and data handling practices, taking into account any known or likely time trends or variations. The compiled and adjusted data product is believed to be consistent to better than 0.005 in salinity, 1 % in oxygen, 2 % in nitrate, 2 % in silicate, 2 % in phosphate, 4 µmol kg−1 in dissolved inorganic carbon, 4 µmol kg−1 in total alkalinity, 0.01–0.02 in pH, and 5 % in the halogenated transient tracers. The compilation also includes data for several other variables, such as isotopic tracers. These were not subjected to bias comparison or adjustments. The original data, their documentation and DOI codes are available in the Ocean Carbon Data System of NOAA NCEI (https://www.nodc.noaa.gov/ocads/oceans/GLODAPv2_2019/, last access: 17 September 2019). This site also provides access to the merged data product, which is provided as a single global file and as four regional ones – the Arctic, Atlantic, Indian, and Pacific oceans – under https://doi.org/10.25921/xnme-wr20 (Olsen et al., 2019). The product files also include significant ancillary and approximated data. These were obtained by interpolation of, or calculation from, measured data. This paper documents the GLODAPv2.2019 methods and provides a broad overview of the secondary quality control procedures and results.

Description: We present a Lagrangian convective transport scheme developed for global chemistry and transport models, which considers the variable residence time that an air parcel spends in convection. This is particularly important for accurately simulating the tropospheric chemistry of short-lived species, e.g., for determining the time available for heterogeneous chemical processes on the surface of cloud droplets. In current Lagrangian convective transport schemes air parcels are stochastically redistributed within a fixed time step according to estimated probabilities for convective entrainment as well as the altitude of detrainment. We introduce a new scheme that extends this approach by modeling the variable time that an air parcel spends in convection by estimating vertical updraft velocities. Vertical updraft velocities are obtained by combining convective mass fluxes from meteorological analysis data with a parameterization of convective area fraction profiles. We implement two different parameterizations: a parameterization using an observed constant convective area fraction profile and a parameterization that uses randomly drawn profiles to allow for variability. Our scheme is driven by convective mass fluxes and detrainment rates that originate from an external convective parameterization, which can be obtained from meteorological analysis data or from general circulation models. We study the effect of allowing for a variable time that an air parcel spends in convection by performing simulations in which our scheme is implemented into the trajectory module of the ATLAS chemistry and transport model and is driven by the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis data. In particular, we show that the redistribution of air parcels in our scheme conserves the vertical mass distribution and that the scheme is able to reproduce the convective mass fluxes and detrainment rates of ERA-Interim. We further show that the estimated vertical updraft velocities of our scheme are able to reproduce wind profiler measurements performed in Darwin, Australia, for velocities larger than 0.6 m s−1. SO2 is used as an example to show that there is a significant effect on species mixing ratios when modeling the time spent in convective updrafts compared to a redistribution of air parcels in a fixed time step. Furthermore, we perform long-time global trajectory simulations of radon-222 and compare with aircraft measurements of radon activity.

Description: Holocene permafrost from ice wedge polygons in the vicinity of large seabird breeding colonies in the Thule District, NW Greenland, was drilled to explore the relation between permafrost aggradation and seabird presence. The latter is reliant on the presence of the North Water Polynya (NOW) in the northern Baffin Bay. The onset of peat accumulation associated with the arrival of little auks (Alle alle) in a breeding colony at Annikitisoq, north of Cape York, is radiocarbon-dated to 4400 cal BP. A thick-billed murre (Uria lomvia) colony on Appat (Saunders Island) in the mouth of the Wolstenholme Fjord started 5650 cal BP. Both species provide marine-derived nutrients (MDNs) that fertilize vegetation and promote peat growth. The geochemical signature of organic matter left by the birds is traceable in the frozen Holocene peat. The peat accumulation rates at both sites are highest after the onset, decrease over time, and were about 2-times faster at the little auk site than at the thick-billed murre site. High accumulation rates induce shorter periods of organic matter (OM) decomposition before it enters the perennially frozen state. This is seen in comparably high C=N ratios and less depleted 13C, pointing to a lower degree of OM decomposition at the little auk site, while the opposite pattern can be discerned at the thick-billed murre site. Peat accumulation rates correspond to 15N trends, where decreasing accumulation led to increasing depletion in 15N as seen in the little-auk-related data. In contrast, the more decomposed OM of the thick-billed murre site shows almost stable 15N. Late Holocene wedge ice fed by cold season precipitation was studied at the little auk site and provides the first stable-water isotopic record from Greenland with mean 18O of 8:00:8, mean D of 36:25:7, mean d excess of 7:70:7, and a 18O-D slope of 7.27, which is close to those of the modern Thule meteoric water line. The syngenetic ice wedge polygon development is mirrored in testacean records of the little auk site and delineates polygon low-center, dry-out, and polygon-high-center stages. The syngenetic permafrost formation directly depending on peat growth (controlled by bird activity) falls within the period of neoglacial cooling and the establishment of the NOW, thus indirectly following the Holocene climate trends.

Description: Coastal erosion and flooding transform terrestrial landscapes into marine environments. In the Arctic, these processes inundate terrestrial permafrost with seawater and create submarine permafrost. Permafrost begins to warm under marine conditions, which can destabilize the sea floor and may release greenhouse gases. We report on the transition of terrestrial to submarine permafrost at a site where the timing of inundation can be inferred from the rate of coastline retreat. On Muostakh Island in the central Laptev Sea, East Siberia, changes in annual coastline position have been measured for decades and vary highly spatially. We hypothesize that these rates are inversely related to the inclination of the upper surface of submarine ice-bonded permafrost (IBP) based on the consequent duration of inundation with increasing distance from the shoreline. We compared rapidly eroding and stable coastal sections of Muostakh Island and find permafrost-table inclinations, determined using direct current resistivity, of 1 and 5 %, respectively. Determinations of submarine IBP depth from a drilling transect in the early 1980s were compared to resistivity profiles from 2011. Based on borehole observations, the thickness of unfrozen sediment overlying the IBP increased from 0 to 14m below sea level with increasing distance from the shoreline. The geoelectrical profiles showed thickening of the unfrozen sediment overlying ice-bonded permafrost over the 28 years since drilling took place. We use geoelectrical estimates of IBP depth to estimate permafrost degradation rates since inundation. Degradation rates decreased from over 0.4ma-1 following inundation to around 0.1ma-1 at the latest after 60 to 110 years and remained constant at this level as the duration of inundation increased to 250 years. We suggest that long-term rates are lower than these values, as the depth to the IBP increases and thermal and porewater solute concentration gradients over depth decrease. For the study region, recent increases in coastal erosion rate and changes in benthic temperature and salinity regimes are expected to affect the depth to submarine permafrost, leading to coastal regions with shallower IBP.

Description: Quantum-dot cellular automata (QCA) are nanoscale digital logic constructs that use electrons in arrays of quantum dots to carry out binary operations. In this paper, a basic building block for QCA will be proposed. The proposed basic building block can be customized to implement classical gates, such as XOR and XNOR gates, and reversible gates, such as CNOT and Toffoli gates, with less cell count and/or better latency than other proposed designs.

Description: Source attribution and process analysis for atmospheric mercury in eastern China simulated by CMAQ-Hg Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15, 8767-8779, 2015 Author(s): J. Zhu, T. Wang, J. Bieser, and V. Matthias The contribution from different emission sources and atmospheric processes to gaseous elemental mercury (GEM), gaseous oxidized mercury (GOM), particulate bound mercury (PBM) and mercury deposition in eastern China were quantified using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ-Hg) modeling system run with a nested domain. Natural sources (NAT) and six categories of anthropogenic mercury sources (ANTH) including cement production (CEM), domestic life (DOM), industrial boilers (IND), metal production (MET), coal-fired power plants (PP) and traffic (TRA) were considered for source apportionment. NAT were responsible for 36.6 % of annual averaged GEM concentration, which was regarded as the most important source for GEM in spite of obvious seasonal variation. Among ANTH, the influence of MET and PP on GEM were most evident especially in winter. ANTH dominated the variations of GOM and PBM concentrations with contributions of 86.7 and 79.1 %, respectively. Among ANTH, IND were the largest contributor for GOM (57.5 %) and PBM (34.4 %) so that most mercury deposition came from IND. The effect of mercury emitted from out of China was indicated by a 〉 30 % contribution to GEM concentration and wet deposition. The contributions from nine processes – consisting of emissions (EMIS), gas-phase chemical production/loss (CHEM), horizontal advection (HADV), vertical advection (ZADV), horizontal advection (HDIF), vertical diffusion (VDIF), dry deposition (DDEP), cloud processes (CLDS) and aerosol processes (AERO) – were calculated for process analysis with their comparison in urban and non-urban regions of the Yangtze River delta (YRD). EMIS and VDIF affected surface GEM and PBM concentrations most and tended to compensate each other all the time in both urban and non-urban areas. However, DDEP was the most important removal process for GOM with 7.3 and 2.9 ng m −3 reduced in the surface of urban and non-urban areas, respectively, in 1 day. The diurnal profile variation of processes revealed the transportation of GOM from urban area to non-urban areas and the importance of CHEM/AERO in higher altitudes which partly caused diffusion of GOM downwards to non-urban areas. Most of the anthropogenic mercury was transported and diffused away from urban areas by HADV and VDIF and increased mercury concentrations in non-urban areas by HADV. Natural emissions only influenced CHEM and AERO more significantly than anthropogenic. Local emissions in the YRD contributed 8.5 % more to GEM and ~ 30 % more to GOM and PBM in urban areas compared to non-urban areas.

Description: Seasonal variation of secondary organic aerosol tracers in Central Tibetan Plateau Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15, 8781-8793, 2015 Author(s): R.-Q. Shen, X. Ding, Q.-F. He, Z.-Y. Cong, Q.-Q. Yu, and X.-M. Wang Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) affects the earth's radiation balance and global climate. High-elevation areas are sensitive to global climate change. However, at present, SOA origins and seasonal variations are understudied in remote high-elevation areas. In this study, particulate samples were collected from July 2012 to July 2013 at the remote Nam Co (NC) site, Central Tibetan Plateau and analyzed for SOA tracers from biogenic (isoprene, monoterpenes and β-caryophyllene) and anthropogenic (aromatics) precursors. Among these compounds, isoprene SOA (SOA I ) tracers represented the majority (26.6 ± 44.2 ng m −3 ), followed by monoterpene SOA (SOA M ) tracers (0.97 ± 0.57 ng m −3 ), aromatic SOA (SOA A ) tracer (2,3-dihydroxy-4-oxopentanoic acid, DHOPA, 0.25 ± 0.18 ng m −3 ) and β-caryophyllene SOA tracer (β-caryophyllenic acid, 0.09 ± 0.10 ng m −3 ). SOA I tracers exhibited high concentrations in the summer and low levels in the winter. The similar temperature dependence of SOA I tracers and isoprene emission suggested that the seasonal variation of SOA I tracers at the NC site was mainly influenced by the isoprene emission. The ratio of high-NO x to low-NO x products of SOA I (2-methylglyceric acid to 2-methyltetrols) was highest in the winter and lowest in the summer, due to the influence of temperature and relative humidity. The seasonal variation of SOA M tracers was impacted by monoterpenes emission and gas-particle partitioning. During the summer to the fall, temperature effect on partitioning was the dominant process influencing SOA M tracers' variation; while the temperature effect on emission was the dominant process influencing SOA M tracers' variation during the winter to the spring. SOA M tracer levels did not elevate with increased temperature in the summer, probably resulting from the counteraction of temperature effects on emission and partitioning. The concentrations of DHOPA were 1–2 orders of magnitude lower than those reported in the urban regions of the world. Due to the transport of air pollutants from the adjacent Bangladesh and northeastern India, DHOPA presented relatively higher levels in the summer. In the winter when air masses mainly came from northwestern India, mass fractions of DHOPA in total tracers increased, although its concentrations declined. The SOA-tracer method was applied to estimate secondary organic carbon (SOC) from these four precursors. The annual average of SOC was 0.22 ± 0.29 μgC m −3 , with the biogenic SOC (sum of isoprene, monoterpenes and β-caryophyllene) accounting for 75 %. In the summer, isoprene was the major precursor with its SOC contributions of 81 %. In the winter when the emission of biogenic precursors largely dropped, the contributions of aromatic SOC increased. Our study implies that anthropogenic pollutants emitted in the Indian subcontinent could be transported to the TP and have an impact on SOC over the remote NC.

Description: Influence of biomass burning on CCN number and hygroscopicity during summertime in the eastern Mediterranean Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 15, 21539-21582, 2015 Author(s): A. Bougiatioti, S. Bezantakos, I. Stavroulas, N. Kalivitis, P. Kokkalis, G. Biskos, N. Mihalopoulos, A. Papayannis, and A. Nenes This study investigates the CCN activity and hygroscopic properties of particles influenced by biomass burning in the eastern Mediterranean. Air masses sampled were subject to a range of atmospheric processing (several hours up to 3 days). Values of the hygroscopicity parameter, κ, were derived from cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) measurements and a Hygroscopic Tandem Differential Mobility Analyzer (HTDMA). An Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM) was also used to determine the chemical composition and mass concentration of non-refractory components of the submicron aerosol fraction. During fire events, the increased organic content (and lower inorganic fraction) of the aerosol decreases the hygroscopicity parameter, κ, for all particle sizes. The reason, however, for this decrease was not the same for all size modes; smaller particle sizes appeared to be richer in less hygroscopic, less CCN-active components due to coagulation processes while larger particles become less hygroscopic during the biomass burning events due to condensation of less hygroscopic gaseous compounds. In addition, smaller particles exhibited considerable chemical dispersion (where hygroscopicity varied up to 100 % for particles of same size); larger particles, however, exhibited considerably less dispersion owing to the effects of aging and retained high levels of CCN activity. These conclusions are further supported by the observed mixing state determined by the HTDMA measurements. ACSM measurements indicate that the bulk composition reflects the hygroscopicity and chemical nature of the largest particles and a large fraction of the CCN concentrations sampled. Based on Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) analysis of the organic ACSM spectra, CCN concentrations follow a similar trend with the BBOA component, with enhancements of CCN in biomass burning plumes ranging between 65 and 150 %, for supersaturations ranging between 0.2 and 0.7 %. Using multilinear regression, we determine the hygroscopicity of the prime organic aerosol components (BBOA, OOA-BB and OOA); it is found that the total organic hygroscopicity is very close to the inferred hygroscopicity of the oxygenated organic aerosol components. Finally, the transformation of freshly-emitted biomass burning (BBOA) to more oxidized organic aerosol (OOA-BB) can result in a two-fold increase of the inferred organic hygroscopicity. Almost 10 % of the total aerosol hygroscopicity is related to the two biomass burning components (BBOA and OOA-BB), which in turn contribute almost 35 % to the fine-particle organic water of the aerosol. This is important as organic water can contribute to the atmospheric chemistry and the direct radiative forcing.

Description: Measurement-based direct radiative effect by brown carbon over Indo-Gangetic Plain Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 15, 21583-21606, 2015 Author(s): A. Arola, G. L. Schuster, M. R. A. Pitkänen, O. Dubovik, H. Kokkola, A. V. Lindfors, T. Mielonen, T. Raatikainen, S. Romakkaniemi, S. N. Tripathi, and H. Lihavainen The importance of light absorbing organic aerosols, often called brown carbon (BrC), has become evident in recent years. However, there are relatively few measurement-based estimates for the direct radiative effect of BrC so far. In those earlier studies, the AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) measured Aerosol Absorption Optical Depth (AAOD) and Absorption Angstrom Exponent (AAE) have been exploited. However, these two pieces of information are clearly not sufficient to separate properly carbonaceous aerosols from dust, while imaginary indices of refraction would contain more and better justified information for this purpose. This is first time that the direct radiative effect (DRE) of BrC is estimated by exploiting the AERONET-retrieved imaginary indices. We estimated it for four sites in Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP), Karachi, Lahore, Kanpur and Gandhi College. We found a distinct seasonality, which was generally similar among all the sites, but with slightly different strengths. The monthly warming effect up to 0.5 W m -2 takes place during spring season. On the other hand, BrC results in overall cooling effect in the winter season, which can reach levels close to −1W m -2 . We then estimated similarly also DRE of black carbon and total aerosol, in order to assess the relative significance of BrC radiative effect in the radiative effects of other components. Even though BrC impact seems minor in this context, we demonstrated that it is not insignificant and moreover that it is crucial to perform spectrally resolved radiative transfer calculations to obtain good estimates for DRE of BrC.

Description: Contrail life cycle and properties from 1 year of MSG/SEVIRI rapid-scan images Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15, 8739-8749, 2015 Author(s): M. Vázquez-Navarro, H. Mannstein, and S. Kox The automatic contrail tracking algorithm (ACTA) – developed to automatically follow contrails as they age, drift and spread – enables the study of a large number of contrails and the evolution of contrail properties with time. In this paper we present a year's worth of tracked contrails, from August 2008 to July 2009 in order to derive statistically significant mean values. The tracking is performed using the 5 min rapid-scan mode of the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) on board the Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellites. The detection is based on the high spatial resolution of the images provided by the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer on board the Terra satellite (Terra/MODIS), where a contrail detection algorithm (CDA) is applied. The results show the satellite-derived average lifetimes of contrails and contrail-cirrus along with the probability density function (PDF) of other geometric characteristics such as mean coverage, distribution and width. In combination with specifically developed algorithms (RRUMS; Rapid Retrieval of Upwelling irradiance from MSG/SEVIRI and COCS (Cirrus Optical properties derived from CALIOP and SEVIRI), explained below) it is possible to derive the radiative forcing (RF), energy forcing (EF), optical thickness (τ) and altitude of the tracked contrails. Mean values here retrieved are duration, 1 h; length, 130 km; width, 8 km; altitude, 11.7 km; optical thickness, 0.34. Radiative forcing and energy forcing are shown for land/water backgrounds in day/night situations.

Description: Accounting for the effects of sastrugi in the CERES clear-sky Antarctic shortwave angular distribution models Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, 8, 3163-3175, 2015 Author(s): J. Corbett and W. Su The Cloud and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) instruments on NASA's Terra, Aqua and Soumi NPP satellites are used to provide a long-term measurement of Earth's energy budget. To accomplish this, the radiances measured by the instruments must be inverted to fluxes by the use of a scene-type-dependent angular distribution model (ADM). For permanent snow scenes over Antarctica, shortwave (SW) ADMs are created by compositing radiance measurements over the full viewing zenith and azimuth range. However, the presence of small-scale wind blown roughness features called sastrugi cause the BRDF (bidirectional reflectance distribution function) of the snow to vary significantly based upon the solar azimuth angle and location. This can result in monthly regional biases between −12 and 7.5 Wm −2 in the inverted TOA (top-of-atmosphere) SW flux. The bias is assessed by comparing the CERES shortwave fluxes derived from nadir observations with those from all viewing zenith angles, as the sastrugi affect fluxes inverted from the oblique viewing angles more than for the nadir viewing angles. In this paper we further describe the clear-sky Antarctic ADMs from Su et al. (2015). These ADMs account for the sastrugi effect by using measurements from the Multi-Angle Imaging Spectro-Radiometer (MISR) instrument to derive statistical relationships between radiance from different viewing angles. We show here that these ADMs reduce the bias and artifacts in the CERES SW flux caused by sastrugi, both locally and Antarctic-wide. The regional monthly biases from sastrugi are reduced to between −5 and 7 Wm −2 , and the monthly-mean biases over Antarctica are reduced by up to 0.64 Wm −2 , a decrease of 74 %. These improved ADMs are used as part of the Edition 4 CERES SSF (Single Scanner Footprint) data.

Description: Space-borne observation of methane from atmospheric infrared sounder version 6: validation and implications for data analysis Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 8, 8563-8597, 2015 Author(s): X. Xiong, F. Weng, Q. Liu, and E. Olsen Atmospheric Methane (CH 4 ) is generated as a standard product in recent version of the hyperspectral Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS-V6) aboard NASA's Aqua satellite at the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (NASA/GES/DISC). Significant improvements in AIRS-V6 was expected but without a thorough validation. This paper first introduced the improvements of CH 4 retrieval in AIRS-V6 and some characterizations, then presented the results of validation using ~ 1000 aircraft profiles from several campaigns spread over a couple of years and in different regions. It was found the mean biases of AIRS CH 4 at layers 343–441 and 441–575 hPa are −0.76 and −0.05 % and the RMS errors are 1.56 and 1.16 %, respectively. Further analysis demonstrates that the errors in the spring and in the high northern latitudes are larger than in other seasons or regions. The error is correlated with Degree of Freedoms (DOFs), particularly in the tropics or in the summer, and cloud amount, suggesting that the "observed" spatiotemporal variation of CH 4 by AIRS is imbedded with some artificial impact from the retrieval sensitivity in addition to its variation in reality, so the variation of information content in the retrievals needs to be taken into account in data analysis of the retrieval products. Some additional filtering (i.e. rejection of profiles with obvious oscillation as well as those deviating greatly from the norm) for quality control is recommended for the users to better utilize AIRS-V6 CH 4 , and their implementation in the future versions of the AIRS retrieval algorithm is under consideration.

Description: Impact of aerosols on the OMI tropospheric NO 2 retrievals over industrialized regions: how accurate is the aerosol correction of cloud-free scenes via a simple cloud model? Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 8, 8385-8437, 2015 Author(s): J. Chimot, T. Vlemmix, J. P. Veefkind, J. F. de Haan, and P. F. Levelt The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) instrument has provided daily global measurements of tropospheric NO 2 for more than a decade. Numerous studies have drawn attention to the complexities related to measurements of tropospheric NO 2 in the presence of aerosols. Fine particles affect the OMI spectral measurements and the length of the average light path followed by the photons. However, they are not explicitly taken into account in the current OMI tropospheric NO 2 retrieval chain. Instead, the operational OMI O 2 -O 2 cloud retrieval algorithm is applied both to cloudy scenes and to cloud free scenes with aerosols present. This paper describes in detail the complex interplay between the spectral effects of aerosols, the OMI O 2 -O 2 cloud retrieval algorithm and the impact on the accuracy of the tropospheric NO 2 retrievals through the computed Air Mass Factor (AMF) over cloud-free scenes. Collocated OMI NO 2 and MODIS Aqua aerosol products are analysed over East China, in industrialized area. In addition, aerosol effects on the tropospheric NO 2 AMF and the retrieval of OMI cloud parameters are simulated. Both the observation-based and the simulation-based approach demonstrate that the retrieved cloud fraction linearly increases with increasing Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT), but the magnitude of this increase depends on the aerosol properties and surface albedo. This increase is induced by the additional scattering effects of aerosols which enhance the scene brightness. The decreasing effective cloud pressure with increasing AOT represents primarily the absorbing effects of aerosols. The study cases show that the actual aerosol correction based on the implemented OMI cloud model results in biases between −20 and −40 % for the DOMINO tropospheric NO 2 product in cases of high aerosol pollution (AOT ≥ 0.6) and elevated particles. On the contrary, when aerosols are relatively close to the surface or mixed with NO 2 , aerosol correction based on the cloud model results in overestimation of the DOMINO tropospheric NO 2 product, between 10 and 20 %. These numbers are in line with comparison studies between ground-based and OMI tropospheric NO 2 measurements under conditions with high aerosol pollution and elevated particles. This highlights the need to implement an improved aerosol correction in the computation of tropospheric NO 2 AMFs.

Description: Sensitivity of thermal infrared sounders to the chemical and micro-physical properties of UTLS secondary sulphate aerosols Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 8, 8439-8481, 2015 Author(s): P. Sellitto and B. Legras Monitoring upper tropospheric-lower stratospheric (UTLS) secondary sulphate aerosols and their chemical and micro-physical properties from satellite nadir observations is crucial to better understand their formation and evolution processes and then to estimate their impact to the UTLS chemistry, and on regional and global radiative balance. Here we present a study aimed at the evaluation of the sensitivity of thermal infrared (TIR) satellite nadir observations to the chemical composition and the size distribution of idealized UTLS sulphate aerosol layers. The extinction properties of sulphuric acid/water droplets, for different sulphuric acid mixing ratios and temperatures, are systematically analysed. The extinction coefficients are derived by means of a Mie code, using refractive indexes taken from the GEISA (Gestion et Étude des Informations Spectroscopiques Atmosphériques: Management and Study of Spectroscopic Information) spectroscopic database and log-normal size distributions with different effective radii and number concentrations. IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer) pseudo-observations are generated using forward radiative transfer calculations performed with the 4A (Automatized Atmospheric Absorption Atlas) radiative transfer model, to estimate the impact of the extinction of idealized aerosol layers, at typical UTLS conditions, on the brightness temperature spectra observed by this satellite instrument. We found a marked and typical spectral signature of these aerosol layers between 700 and 1200 cm −1 , due to the absorption bands of the sulphate and bi-sulphate ions and the undissociated sulphuric acid, with the main absorption peaks at 1170 and 905 cm −1 . The dependence of the aerosol spectral signature to the sulphuric acid mixing ratio, and effective number concentration and radius, as well as the role of interferring parameters like the ozone, sulphur dioxide, carbon dioxide and ash absorption, and temperature and water vapour profile uncertainties, are analyzed and critically discussed.

Description: Global cloud top height retrieval using SCIAMACHY limb spectra: model studies and first results Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 8, 8295-8352, 2015 Author(s): K.-U. Eichmann, L. Lelli, C. von Savigny, H. Sembhi, and J. P. Burrows Cloud top heights (CTH) were retrieved for the period 1 January 2003 to 7 April 2012 using height-resolved limb spectra measured with the Scanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) on board ENVISAT (ENVIronmental SATellite). In this study, we tested the sensitivity of the colour index method used in the retrieval code SCODA (SCIAMACHY Cloud Detection Algorithm) and the accuracy of the retrieved CTHs in comparison to other methods. Sensitivity studies using the radiative transfer model SCIATRAN showed that the method is capable of generally detecting cloud tops down to about 5 km and very thin cirrus clouds even up to the tropopause. Volcanic particles can also be detected that occasionally reach the lower stratosphere. Low clouds at 2–3 km can only be retrieved under very clean atmospheric conditions, as light scattering of aerosols interferes with the cloud retrieval. Upper tropospheric ice clouds are detectable for cloud optical depths down to about τ N = 0.005, which is in the subvisual range. The detection sensitivity decreases towards the surface. An optical thickness of roughly 0.1 was the lower detection limit for water cloud top heights at 5 km. This value is much lower than thresholds reported for the passive cloud detection in nadir viewing direction. Comparisons with SCIAMACHY nadir cloud top heights, calculated with the Semi-Analytical CloUd Retrieval Algorithm (SACURA), showed a good agreement in the global cloud field distribution. But only opaque clouds (τ N 〉 5) are detectable with the nadir passive retrieval technique in the UV-visible and infrared wavelength range. So due to the frequent occurrence of thin and sub-visual cirrus clouds in the tropics, large cloud top height deviations were detected between both viewing geometries. Also the land/sea contrast seen in nadir retrievals was not detected in limb mode. Co-located cloud top height measurements of the limb viewing Michelson Interferometer for Passive Atmospheric Sounding (MIPAS) on ENVISAT for the period from January 2008 to March 2012 were compared, showing good agreement to within 1 km, which is smaller than the vertical field of view of both instruments. Lower stratospheric aerosols from volcanic eruptions occasionally interfered with the cloud retrieval and inhibited detection of tropospheric clouds. Examples of the impact of these events are shown for the volcanoes Kasatochi in August 2008, Sarychev Peak in June 2009, and Nabro in June 2010. Long-lasting aerosol layers were detected after these events in the Northern Hemisphere down to the tropics. Particle top heights up to about 22 km were retrieved in 2009, when the enhanced lower stratospheric aerosol layer persisted for about 7 months. Up to about 82 % of the Northern hemispheric lower stratosphere between 30° and 70° was covered by scattering particles in August 2009 and nearly half in October 2008.

Description: Operation of the Airmodus A11 nano Condensation Nucleus Counter at various inlet pressures, various operation temperatures and design of a new inlet system Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 8, 8483-8508, 2015 Author(s): J. Kangasluoma, A. Franchin, J. Duplissy, L. Ahonen, F. Korhonen, M. Attoui, J. Mikkilä, K. Lehtipalo, J. Vanhanen, M. Kulmala, and T. Petäjä Measuring sub-3 nm particles outside of controlled laboratory conditions is a challenging task, as many of the instruments are operated at their limits and are subjected to changing ambient conditions. In this study, we advance the current understanding on the operation of Airmodus A11 nano Condensation Nucleus Counter (nCNC), which consists of a A10 Particle Size Magnifier (PSM) and A20 condensation particle counter (CPC). We explore the effect of the inlet line pressure on the measured particle concentration. We identify two different regions inside the instrument where supersaturation of working fluid can take place. We show the possibility of varying the cut-off of the instrument from 1 to 6 nm, a wider size range than the one usually covered by the PSM. We also present a new inlet system, which allows automated measurements of the background, minimizes the diffusion losses in the sampling line and is equipped with an electrostatic filter to remove ions. Finally, our view of the guidelines for optimal use of the Airmodus nCNC are provided.

Description: Looking beyond stratification: a model-based analysis of the biological drivers of oxygen depletion in the North Sea Biogeosciences Discussions, 12, 12543-12610, 2015 Author(s): F. Große, N. Greenwood, M. Kreus, H. J. Lenhart, D. Machoczek, J. Pätsch, L. A. Salt, and H. Thomas The problem of low oxygen conditions, often referred to as hypoxia, occurs regularly in the North Sea, a temperate European shelf sea. Stratification represents a major process regulating the seasonal dynamics of bottom oxygen. However, lowest oxygen conditions in the North Sea do not occur in the regions of strongest stratification. This suggests that stratification is an important prerequisite for hypoxia, but that the complex interaction between hydrodynamics and the biological processes drives its development. In this study we use the ecosystem model HAMSOM-ECOHAM5 to provide a general characteristic of the different North Sea oxygen regimes, and to quantify the impact of the different physical and biological factors driving the oxygen dynamics below the thermocline and in the bottom layer. We show that the North Sea can be subdivided into three different regimes in terms of oxygen dynamics: (1) a highly productive, non-stratified coastal regime, (2) a productive, seasonally stratified regime with a small sub-thermocline volume, and (3) a productive, seasonally stratified regime with a large sub-thermocline volume, with regime 2 being highly susceptible to hypoxic conditions. Our analysis of the different processes driving the oxygen development reveals that inter-annual variations in the oxygen conditions are caused by variations in primary production, while spatial differences can be attributed to differences in stratification and water depth. In addition, we show that benthic bacteria represent the main oxygen consumers in the bottom layer, consistently accounting for more than 50 % of the overall consumption. By providing these valuable insights, we show that ecosystem models can be a useful tool for the interpretation of observations and the estimation of the impact of anthropogenic drivers on the North Sea oxygen conditions.

Description: Impact of the oceanic geothermal heat flux on a glacial ocean state Climate of the Past Discussions, 11, 3597-3624, 2015 Author(s): M. Ballarotta, F. Roquet, S. Falahat, Q. Zhang, and G. Madec The oceanic geothermal heating (OGH) has a significant impact on the present-day ocean state, but its role during glacial periods, when the ocean circulation and stratification were different from those of today, remains poorly known. In the present study, we analyzed the response of the glacial ocean to OGH, by comparing ocean simulations of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼ 21 ka ago) including or not geothermal heating. We found that applying the OGH warmed the Antarctic Bottom Waters (AABW) by ∼ 0.4 °C and increased the abyssal circulation by 15 to 30 % north of 30° S in the deep Pacific and Atlantic basins. The geothermally heated deep waters were then advected toward the Southern Ocean where they upwelled to the surface due to the Ekman transport. The extra heat transport towards Antarctica acted to reduce the amount of sea ice contributing to the freshening of the whole AABW overturning cell. The global amount of salt being conserved, this bottom freshening induced a salinification of the North Atlantic and North Pacific surface and intermediate waters, contributing to the deepening of the North Atlantic Deep Water. This indirect mechanism is responsible for the largest observed warming, found in the North Atlantic deep western boundary current between 2000 and 3000 m (up to 2 °C). The characteristic time scale of the ocean response to the OGH corresponds to an advective time scale (associated with the overturning of the AABW cell) rather than a diffusive time scale. The OGH might facilitate the transition from a glacial to an inter-glacial state but its effect on the deep stratification seems insufficient to drive alone an abrupt climate change.

Description: Woodland Survey of Great Britain 1971–2001 Earth System Science Data, 7, 203-214, 2015 Author(s): C. M. Wood, S. M. Smart, and R. G. H. Bunce The Woodland Survey of Great Britain is a unique data set, consisting of a detailed range of ecological measurements at a national scale, covering a time span of 30 years. A set of 103 woods spread across Britain were first surveyed in 1971, which were again surveyed in 2000–2003 (for convenience referred to subsequently as the "2001 survey"). Standardised methods of describing the trees, shrubs, ground flora, soils and general habitats present were used for both sets of surveys. The sample of 1648 plots spread through 103 woodland sites located across Britain makes it probably the most extensive quantitative ecological woodland survey undertaken in Britain; it is also notable for the range of sites that have been revisited after such a long interval. The data set provides a unique opportunity to explore the effects of a range of potential drivers of woodland change that operated between 1971 and 2001. The data set is available in four discrete parts, which have been assigned the following DOIs: doi:10.5285/4d93f9ac-68e3-49cf-8a41-4d02a7ead81a (Kirby et al., 2013b), doi:10.5285/d6409d40-58fe-4fa7-b7c8-71a105b965b4 (Kirby et al., 2013d), doi:10.5285/fb1e474d-456b-42a9-9a10-a02c35af10d2 (Kirby et al., 2013c), doi:10.5285/2d023ce9-6dbe-4b4f-a0cd-34768e1455ae (Kirby et al., 2013a).

Description: Estimating greenhouse gas emissions from travel – a GIS-based study Geographica Helvetica, 70, 185-192, 2015 Author(s): S. Kuonen Conferences, meetings and congresses are an important part of today's economic and scientific world. But the environmental impact, especially from greenhouse gas emissions associated with travel, can be extensive. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions account for the warming of the atmosphere and oceans. This study draws on the need to quantify and reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with travel activities and aims to give suggestions for organizers and participants on possible ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, demonstrated on the example of the European Geography Association (EGEA) Annual Congress 2013 in Wasilkow, Poland. The lack of a comprehensive methodology for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions from travel led to an outline of a methodology that uses geographic information systems (GIS) to calculate travel distances. The calculation of travel distances in GIS is adapted from actual transportation infrastructure, derived from the open-source platform OpenStreetMap. The methodology also aims to assess the possibilities to reduce GHG emissions by choosing different means of transportation and a more central conference location. The results of the participants of the EGEA congress, who shared their travel data for this study, show that the total travel distance adds up to 238 000 km, with average travel distance of 2429 km per participant. The travel activities of the participants in the study result in total GHG emissions of 39 300 kg CO 2 -eq including both outward and return trip. On average a participant caused GHG emissions of 401 kg CO 2 -eq. In addition, the analysis of the travel data showed differences in travel behaviour depending on the distance between conference site and point of origin. The findings on travel behaviour have then been used to give an estimation of total greenhouse gas emissions from travel for all participants of the conference, which result in a total amount of 79 711 kg CO 2 -eq. The potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions by substituting short flights with train rides and car rides with bus and train rides is limited. Only 6 % of greenhouse gas emissions could be saved by applying these measures. Further considerable savings could only be made by substituting longer flights (32.6 %) or choosing a more central conference location (26.3 %).

Description: Singular vector based targeted observations of chemical constituents: description and first application of the EURAD-IM-SVA Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 8, 6267-6307, 2015 Author(s): N. Goris and H. Elbern Measurements of the large dimensional chemical state of the atmosphere provide only sparse snapshots of the state of the system due to their typically insufficient temporal and spatial density. In order to optimize the measurement configurations despite those limitations, the present work describes the identification of sensitive states of the chemical system as optimal target areas for adaptive observations. For this purpose, the technique of singular vector analysis (SVA), which has been proved effective for targeted observations in numerical weather predication, is implemented into the chemical transport model EURAD-IM (EURopean Air pollution and Dispersion – Inverse Model) yielding the EURAD-IM-SVA. Besides initial values, emissions are investigated as critical simulation controlling targeting variables. For both variants, singular vectors are applied to determine the optimal placement for observations and moreover to quantify which chemical compounds have to be observed with preference. Based on measurements of the airship based ZEPTER-2 campaign, the EURAD-IM-SVA has been evaluated by conducting a comprehensive set of model runs involving different initial states and simulation lengths. Since the considered cases are restricted in terms of considered chemical compounds and selected areas, they allow for a retracing of the results and a confirmation of their correctness. Our analysis shows that the optimal placement for observations of chemical species is not entirely determined by mere transport and mixing processes. Rather, a combination of initial chemical concentrations, chemical conversions, and meteorological processes determine the influence of chemical compounds and regions. We furthermore demonstrate that the optimal placement of observations of emission strengths is highly dependent on the location of emission sources and that the benefit of including emissions as target variables outperforms the value of initial value optimisation with growing simulation length. The obtained results confirm the benefit of considering both initial values and emission strengths as target variables and of applying the EURAD-IM-SVA for measurement decision guidance with respect to chemical compounds.

Description: A global scale mechanistic model of the photosynthetic capacity Geoscientific Model Development Discussions, 8, 6217-6266, 2015 Author(s): A. A. Ali, C. Xu, A. Rogers, R. A. Fisher, S. D. Wullschleger, N. G. McDowell, E. C. Massoud, J. A. Vrugt, J. D. Muss, J. B. Fisher, P. B. Reich, and C. J. Wilson Although plant photosynthetic capacity as determined by the maximum carboxylation rate (i.e., V c, max25 ) and the maximum electron transport rate (i.e., J max25 ) at a reference temperature (generally 25 °C) is known to vary substantially in space and time in response to environmental conditions, it is typically parameterized in Earth system models (ESMs) with tabulated values associated to plant functional types. In this study, we developed a mechanistic model of leaf utilization of nitrogen for assimilation (LUNA V1.0) to predict the photosynthetic capacity at the global scale under different environmental conditions, based on the optimization of nitrogen allocated among light capture, electron transport, carboxylation, and respiration. The LUNA model was able to reasonably well capture the observed patterns of photosynthetic capacity in view that it explained approximately 55 % of the variation in observed V c, max25 and 65 % of the variation in observed J max25 across the globe. Our model simulations under current and future climate conditions indicated that V c, max25 could be most affected in high-latitude regions under a warming climate and that ESMs using a fixed V c, max25 or J max25 by plant functional types were likely to substantially overestimate future global photosynthesis.

Description: Uncertainties in calculating precipitation climatology in East Asia Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7765-7783, 2015 Author(s): J. Kim and S. K. Park This study examines the uncertainty in calculating the fundamental climatological characteristics of precipitation in the East Asia region from multiple fine-resolution gridded analysis datasets based on in-situ rain gauge observations. Five observation-based gridded precipitation datasets are used to derive the long-term means, standard deviations in lieu of interannual variability and linear trends over the 28-year period from 1980 to 2007. Both the annual and summer (June–July–August) mean precipitation is examined. The agreement amongst these precipitation datasets are examined using multiple metrics including the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) defined as the ratio between long-term means and the corresponding standard deviations, and Taylor diagrams which allows examinations of the pattern correlation, the standard deviation, and the centered root mean square error. It is found that the five gauge-based precipitation analysis datasets agree well in the long-term mean and interannual variability in most of the East Asia region including eastern China, Manchuria, South Korea, and Japan, which are densely populated and have fairly high density observation networks. The regions of large inter-dataset variations include Tibetan Plateau, Mongolia, northern Indo-China, and North Korea. The regions of large uncertainties are typically lightly populated and are characterized by severe terrain and/or extreme high elevations. Unlike the long-term mean and interannual variability, agreements between datasets in the linear trend is weak, both for the annual and summer mean values. In most of the East Asia region, the SNR for the linear trend is below 0.5, i.e., the inter-dataset variability exceeds the multi-data ensemble mean. The uncertainty in the spatial distribution of long-term means among these datasets occurs both in the spatial pattern and variability, but the uncertainty for the interannual variability and time trend is much larger in the variability than in the pattern correlation. Thus, care must be taken in using long-term trends calculated from gridded precipitation analysis data for climate studies over the East Asia region.

Description: Qualitative soil moisture assessment in semi-arid Africa – the role of experience and training on inter-rater reliability Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3505-3516, 2015 Author(s): M. Rinderer, H. C. Komakech, D. Müller, G. L. B. Wiesenberg, and J. Seibert Soil and water management is particularly relevant in semi-arid regions to enhance agricultural productivity. During periods of water scarcity, soil moisture differences are important indicators of the soil water deficit and are traditionally used for allocating water resources among farmers of a village community. Here we present a simple, inexpensive soil wetness classification scheme based on qualitative indicators which one can see or touch on the soil surface. It incorporates the local farmers' knowledge on the best soil moisture conditions for seeding and brick making in the semi-arid environment of the study site near Arusha, Tanzania. The scheme was tested twice in 2014 with farmers, students and experts (April: 40 persons, June: 25 persons) for inter-rater reliability, bias of individuals and functional relation between qualitative and quantitative soil moisture values. During the test in April farmers assigned the same wetness class in 46 % of all cases, while students and experts agreed on about 60 % of all cases. Students who had been trained in how to apply the method gained higher inter-rater reliability than their colleagues with only a basic introduction. When repeating the test in June, participants were given improved instructions, organized in small subgroups, which resulted in a higher inter-rater reliability among farmers. In 66 % of all classifications, farmers assigned the same wetness class and the spread of class assignments was smaller. This study demonstrates that a wetness classification scheme based on qualitative indicators is a robust tool and can be applied successfully regardless of experience in crop growing and education level when an in-depth introduction and training is provided. The use of a simple and clear layout of the assessment form is important for reliable wetness class assignments.

Description: Nonlinear effects of locally heterogeneous hydraulic conductivity fields on regional stream–aquifer exchanges Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7727-7764, 2015 Author(s): J. Zhu, C. L. Winter, and Z. Wang Computational experiments are performed to evaluate the effects of locally heterogeneous conductivity fields on regional exchanges of water between stream and aquifer systems in the Middle Heihe River Basin (MHRB) of northwestern China. The effects are found to be nonlinear in the sense that simulated discharges from aquifers to streams are systematically lower than discharges produced by a base model parameterized with relatively coarse effective conductivity. A similar, but weaker, effect is observed for stream leakage. The study is organized around three hypotheses: (H1) small-scale spatial variations of conductivity significantly affect regional exchanges of water between streams and aquifers in river basins, (H2) aggregating small-scale heterogeneities into regional effective parameters systematically biases estimates of stream–aquifer exchanges, and (H3) the biases result from slow-paths in groundwater flow that emerge due to small-scale heterogeneities. The hypotheses are evaluated by comparing stream–aquifer fluxes produced by the base model to fluxes simulated using realizations of the MHRB characterized by local (grid-scale) heterogeneity. Levels of local heterogeneity are manipulated as control variables by adjusting coefficients of variation. All models are implemented using the MODFLOW simulation environment, and the PEST tool is used to calibrate effective conductivities defined over 16 zones within the MHRB. The effective parameters are also used as expected values to develop log-normally distributed conductivity ( K ) fields on local grid scales. Stream-aquifer exchanges are simulated with K fields at both scales and then compared. Results show that the effects of small-scale heterogeneities significantly influence exchanges with simulations based on local-scale heterogeneities always producing discharges that are less than those produced by the base model. Although aquifer heterogeneities are uncorrelated at local scales, they appear to induce coherent slow-paths in groundwater fluxes that in turn reduce aquifer–stream exchanges. Since surface water–groundwater exchanges are critical hydrologic processes in basin-scale water budgets, these results also have implications for water resources management.

Description: Near–surface air temperature and snow skin temperature comparison from CREST-SAFE station data with MODIS land surface temperature data Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7665-7687, 2015 Author(s): C. L. Pérez Díaz, T. Lakhankar, P. Romanov, J. Muñoz, R. Khanbilvardi, and Y. Yu Land Surface Temperature (LST) is a key variable (commonly studied to understand the hydrological cycle) that helps drive the energy balance and water exchange between the Earth's surface and its atmosphere. One observable constituent of much importance in the land surface water balance model is snow. Snow cover plays a critical role in the regional to global scale hydrological cycle because rain-on-snow with warm air temperatures accelerates rapid snow-melt, which is responsible for the majority of the spring floods. Accurate information on near-surface air temperature ( T -air) and snow skin temperature ( T -skin) helps us comprehend the energy and water balances in the Earth's hydrological cycle. T -skin is critical in estimating latent and sensible heat fluxes over snow covered areas because incoming and outgoing radiation fluxes from the snow mass and the air temperature above make it different from the average snowpack temperature. This study investigates the correlation between MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LST data and observed T -air and T -skin data from NOAA-CREST-Snow Analysis and Field Experiment (CREST-SAFE) for the winters of 2013 and 2014. LST satellite validation is imperative because high-latitude regions are significantly affected by climate warming and there is a need to aid existing meteorological station networks with the spatially continuous measurements provided by satellites. Results indicate that near-surface air temperature correlates better than snow skin temperature with MODIS LST data. Additional findings show that there is a negative trend demonstrating that the air minus snow skin temperature difference is inversely proportional to cloud cover. To a lesser extent, it will be examined whether the surface properties at the site are representative for the LST properties within the instrument field of view.

Description: Does drought alter hydrological functions in forest soils? An infiltration experiment Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 12, 7689-7725, 2015 Author(s): K. F. Gimbel, H. Puhlmann, and M. Weiler The water cycle is expected to change in future and severely affect precipitation patterns across central Europe and in other parts of the world, leading to more frequent and severe droughts. Usually, it is assumed that system properties, like soil properties, remain stable and will not be affected by drought events. To study if this assumption is appropriate, we address the effects of drought on the infiltration behavior of forest soils using dye tracer experiments on six sites in three regions across Germany, which were forced into drought conditions. The sites cover clayey, loamy and sandy textured soils. In each region, we compared a deciduous and a coniferous forest stand to address differences between the main tree species. The results of the dye tracer experiments show clear evidence for changes in infiltration behavior at the sites. The infiltration changed at the clayey plots from regular and homogeneous flow to fast preferential flow. Similar behavior was observed at the loamy plots, where large areas in the upper layers remained dry, displaying signs of strong water repellency. This was confirmed by WDPT tests, which revealed, in all except one plot, moderate to severe water repellency. Water repellency was also accountable for the change of regular infiltration to fingered flow in the sandy soils. The results of this study suggest that the "drought-history" or generally the climatic conditions in the past of a soil are more important than the actual antecedent soil moisture status regarding hydrophobicity and infiltration behavior; and also, that drought effects on infiltration need to be considered in hydrological models to obtain realistic predictions concerning water quality and quantity in runoff and groundwater recharge.

Description: A navigation algorithm is proposed to increase the inertial navigation performance of a ground vehicle using magnetic measurements and dynamic constraints. The navigation solutions are estimated based on inertial measurements such as acceleration and angular velocity measurements. To improve the inertial navigation performance, a three-axis magnetometer is used to provide the heading angle, and nonholonomic constraints (NHCs) are introduced to increase the correlation between the velocity and the attitude equation. The NHCs provide a velocity feedback to the attitude, which makes the navigation solution more robust. Additionally, an acceleration-based roll and pitch estimation is applied to decrease the drift when the acceleration is within certain boundaries. The magnetometer and NHCs are combined with an extended Kalman filter. An experimental test was conducted to verify the proposed method, and a comprehensive analysis of the performance in terms of the position, velocity, and attitude showed that the navigation performance could be improved by using the magnetometer and NHCs. Moreover, the proposed method could improve the estimation performance for the position, velocity, and attitude without any additional hardware except an inertial sensor and magnetometer. Therefore, this method would be effective for ground vehicles, indoor navigation, mobile robots, vehicle navigation in urban canyons, or navigation in any global navigation satellite system-denied environment.

Description: State determination of catalytic converters based on an ultra-wideband communication system Journal of Sensors and Sensor Systems, 4, 255-262, 2015 Author(s): I. Motroniuk, R. Stöber, and G. Fischerauer A novel microwave-based approach for monitoring the state of aftertreatment systems such as diesel particulate filters (DPFs), three-way catalytic converters (TWCs), and selective catalytic reduction (SCR) catalysts is proposed. The volume inside the metallic housing of the DPF, TWC, or SCR is considered as a wireless communication channel between two terminals of a communication system. It is shown that, depending on the transmission channel characteristics, the properties of the catalyst, such as the catalyst state, can be inferred. This is done by means of an ultra-wideband (UWB) measurement and the subsequent evaluation and processing of the waveform in the time and frequency domains.

Description: Motivated by the prospects of the potential particle at high-luminosity heavy-flavor experiments, we studied the weak decays, where = , , . The nonfactorizable contributions to hadronic matrix elements are taken into consideration with the QCDF approach. It is found that the CKM-favored decay has branching ratio of , which might be measured promisingly by the future experiments.

Description: A study on pareto-ranking based quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization (QPSO) for multiobjective optimization problems is presented in this paper. During the iteration, an external repository is maintained to remember the nondominated solutions, from which the global best position is chosen. The comparison between different elitist selection strategies (preference order, sigma value, and random selection) is performed on four benchmark functions and two metrics. The results demonstrate that QPSO with preference order has comparative performance with sigma value according to different number of objectives. Finally, QPSO with sigma value is applied to solve multiobjective flexible job-shop scheduling problems.

Description: For coal slurry pipeline blockage prediction problem, through the analysis of actual scene, it is determined that the pressure prediction from each measuring point is the premise of pipeline blockage prediction. Kernel function of support vector machine is introduced into extreme learning machine, the parameters are optimized by particle swarm algorithm, and blockage prediction method based on particle swarm optimization kernel function extreme learning machine (PSOKELM) is put forward. The actual test data from HuangLing coal gangue power plant are used for simulation experiments and compared with support vector machine prediction model optimized by particle swarm algorithm (PSOSVM) and kernel function extreme learning machine prediction model (KELM). The results prove that mean square error (MSE) for the prediction model based on PSOKELM is 0.0038 and the correlation coefficient is 0.9955, which is superior to prediction model based on PSOSVM in speed and accuracy and superior to KELM prediction model in accuracy.

Description: A comparison of chemical mechanisms using tagged ozone production potential (TOPP) analysis Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15, 8795-8808, 2015 Author(s): J. Coates and T. M. Butler Ground-level ozone is a secondary pollutant produced photochemically from reactions of NO x with peroxy radicals produced during volatile organic compound (VOC) degradation. Chemical transport models use simplified representations of this complex gas-phase chemistry to predict O 3 levels and inform emission control strategies. Accurate representation of O 3 production chemistry is vital for effective prediction. In this study, VOC degradation chemistry in simplified mechanisms is compared to that in the near-explicit Master Chemical Mechanism (MCM) using a box model and by "tagging" all organic degradation products over multi-day runs, thus calculating the tagged ozone production potential (TOPP) for a selection of VOCs representative of urban air masses. Simplified mechanisms that aggregate VOC degradation products instead of aggregating emitted VOCs produce comparable amounts of O 3 from VOC degradation to the MCM. First-day TOPP values are similar across mechanisms for most VOCs, with larger discrepancies arising over the course of the model run. Aromatic and unsaturated aliphatic VOCs have the largest inter-mechanism differences on the first day, while alkanes show largest differences on the second day. Simplified mechanisms break VOCs down into smaller-sized degradation products on the first day faster than the MCM, impacting the total amount of O 3 produced on subsequent days due to secondary chemistry.

Description: Size distribution and optical properties of mineral dust aerosols transported in the western Mediterranean Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 15, 21607-21669, 2015 Author(s): C. Denjean, F. Cassola, A. Mazzino, S. Triquet, S. Chevaillier, N. Grand, T. Bourrianne, G. Momboisse, K. Sellegri, A. Schwarzenbock, E. Freney, M. Mallet, and P. Formenti This study presents in situ aircraft measurements of Saharan mineral dust transported over the western Mediterranean basin in June–July 2013 during the ChArMEx/ADRIMED (the Chemistry-Aerosol Mediterranean Experiment/Aerosol Direct Radiative Impact on the regional climate in the MEDiterranean region) airborne campaign. Dust events differing in terms of source region (Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco), time of tranport (1–5 days) and height of transport were sampled. Mineral dust were transported above the marine boundary layer, which conversely was dominated by pollution and marine aerosols. The dust vertical structure was extremely variable and characterized by either a single layer or a more complex and stratified structure with layers originating from different source regions. Mixing of mineral dust with pollution particles was observed depending on the height of transport of the dust layers. Dust layers carried higher concentration of pollution particles at intermediate altitude (1–3 km) than at elevated altitude (〉 3 km), resulting in scattering Angstrom exponent up to 2.2 within the intermediate altitude. However, the optical properties of the dust plumes remained practically unchanged with respect to values previously measured over source regions, regardless of the altitude. Moderate light absorption of the dust plumes was observed with values of aerosol single scattering albedo at 530 nm ranging from 0.90 to 1.00 ± 0.04. Concurrent calculations from the aerosol chemical composition revealed a negligible contribution of pollution particles to the absorption properties of the dust plumes that was due to a low contribution of refractory black carbon in regards to the fraction of dust and sulfate particles. This suggests that, even in the presence of moderate pollution, likely a persistent feature in the Mediterranean, the optical properties of the dust plumes could be assimilated to those of native dust in radiative transfer simulations, modeling studies and satellite retrievals over the Mediterranean. Measurements also showed that the coarse mode of mineral dust was conserved even after 5 days of transport in the Mediterranean, which contrasts with the gravitational depletion of large particles observed during the transport of dust plumes over the Atlantic. Simulations with the WRF mesoscale meteorological model highlighted a strong vertical turbulence within the dust layers that could prevent deposition of large particles during their atmospheric transport. This has important implications for the dust radiative effects due to surface dimming, atmospheric heating and cloud formation. The results presented here add to the observational dataset necessary for evaluating the role of mineral dust on the regional climate and rainfall patterns in the western Mediterranean basin.

Description: Identification of particulate organosulfates in three megacities at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 15, 21415-21448, 2015 Author(s): X. K. Wang, S. Rossignol, Y. Ma, L. Yao, M. Y. Wang, J. M. Chen, C. George, and L. Wang PM 2.5 filter samples have been collected in three megacities i.e., Wuhan (WH), Nanjing (NJ), and Shanghai (SH) at the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River, respectively. Analysis of those samples using an ultra-high performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) coupled to an orbitrap mass spectrometer (MS) allowed detection of about two hundred particulate organosulfates (OSs), including dozens of nitrooxy-organosulfates, at each location. While aliphatic OSs represented more than 78 % of the detected OSs at the three locations, aromatic OSs were much less abundant. OSs with two to four isomers accounted for about 50 % of the total OSs on average in these megacities, and the percentage of OSs with six and more isomers in WH was more significant than those in SH and NJ. The average molecular weight, and the degrees of oxidation and saturation of OSs in the WH summer samples were greater than those in WH winter samples. In SH, the average molecular weight and the degree of oxidation of OSs in summer samples were greater than those in winter samples, but the degree of saturation was similar between the two seasons. In summer, the average molecular weight, and the degrees of oxidation and unsaturation of OSs were smallest in WH among the three cities. Between NJ and SH, the average molecular weight and the degree of saturation of OSs were close and the degree of oxidation of OSs in NJ was smaller. Kendrick mass defect diagrams and Van Krevelen diagrams indicated that the characteristics of identified OSs between in NJ and in SH shared better similarity. In addition, the identity and abundance of OSs in SH showed clear seasonal and diurnal variations. OSs in summer were more abundant than they were in winter due to stronger photochemical reactions in summer. The relative abundance of OSs at night was greater than that in the daytime and more nitrooxy-OSs existed at night, probably because of active NO 3 radical chemistry at night. In SH summer samples, OSs with 5 and 10 carbons (C 5 and C 10 ) were the most abundant, indicating the importance of isoprene and monoterpenes as precursors of OSs, whereas the relative abundances of OSs with 8, 9, and more than 14 carbons (C 8 , C 9 , and C 14+ ) were also high in SH winter samples, urging the need to further understand the precursors of OSs.

Description: Trace metal characterization of aerosol particles and cloud water during HCCT 2010 Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 15, 8751-8765, 2015 Author(s): K. W. Fomba, D. van Pinxteren, K. Müller, Y. Iinuma, T. Lee, J. L. Collett Jr., and H. Herrmann Trace metal characterization of bulk and size-resolved aerosol and cloud water samples were performed during the Hill Cap Cloud Thuringia (HCCT) campaign. Cloud water was collected at the top of Mt. Schmücke while aerosol samples were collected at two stations upwind and downwind of Mt. Schmücke. Fourteen trace metals including Ti, V, Fe, Mn, Co, Zn, Ni, Cu, As, Sr, Rb, Pb, Cr, and Se were investigated during four full cloud events (FCEs) that fulfilled the conditions of a continuous air mass flow through the three stations. Aerosol particle trace metal concentrations were found to be lower than those observed in the same region during previous field experiments but were within a similar range to those observed in other rural regions in Europe. Fe and Zn were the most abundant elements with concentration ranges of 0.2–111.6 and 1.1–32.1 ng m −3 , respectively. Fe, Mn, and Ti were mainly found in coarse mode aerosols while Zn, Pb, and As were mostly found in the fine mode. Correlation and enrichment factor analysis of trace metals revealed that trace metals such as Ti and Rb were mostly of crustal origin while trace metals such as Zn, Pb, As, Cr, Ni, V, and Cu were of anthropogenic origin. Trace metals such as Fe and Mn were of mixed origins including crustal and combustion sources. Trace metal cloud water concentration decreased from Ti, Mn, Cr, to Co with average concentrations of 9.18, 5.59, 5.54, and 0.46 μg L −1 , respectively. A non-uniform distribution of soluble Fe, Cu, and Mn was observed across the cloud drop sizes. Soluble Fe and Cu were found mainly in cloud droplets with diameters between 16 and 22 μm, while Mn was found mostly in larger drops greater than 22 μm. Fe(III) was the main form of soluble Fe especially in the small and larger drops with concentrations ranging from 2.2 to 37.1 μg L −1 . In contrast to other studies, Fe(II) was observed mainly in the evening hours, implying its presence was not directly related to photochemical processes. Aerosol–cloud interaction did not lead to a marked increase in soluble trace metal concentrations; rather it led to differences in the chemical composition of the aerosol due to preferential loss of aerosol particles through physical processes including cloud drop deposition to vegetative surfaces.

Description: Known and unknown unknowns: the application of ensemble techniques to uncertainty estimation in satellite remote sensing data Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 8, 8509-8562, 2015 Author(s): A. C. Povey and R. G. Grainger This paper discusses a best-practice representation of uncertainty in satellite remote sensing data. An estimate of uncertainty is necessary to make appropriate use of the information conveyed by a measurement. Traditional error propagation quantifies the uncertainty in a measurement due to well-understood perturbations in a measurement and auxiliary data – known, quantified "unknowns". The underconstrained nature of most satellite remote sensing observations requires the use of various approximations and assumptions that produce non-linear systematic errors that are not readily assessed – known, unquantifiable "unknowns". Additional errors result from the inability to resolve all scales of variation in the measured quantity – unknown "unknowns". The latter two categories of error are dominant in underconstrained remote sensing retrievals and the difficulty of their quantification limits the utility of existing uncertainty estimates, degrading confidence in such data. This paper proposes the use of ensemble techniques to present multiple self-consistent realisations of a data set as a means of depicting unquantified uncertainties. These are generated using various systems (different algorithms or forward models) believed to be appropriate to the conditions observed. Benefiting from the experience of the climate modelling community, an ensemble provides a user with a more complete representation of the uncertainty as understood by the data producer and greater freedom to consider different realisations of the data.

Description: Improved stratospheric aerosol extinction profiles from SCIAMACHY: validation and sample results Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 8, 8353-8383, 2015 Author(s): C. von Savigny, F. Ernst, A. Rozanov, R. Hommel, K.-U. Eichmann, V. Rozanov, J. P. Burrows, and L. W. Thomason Stratospheric aerosol extinction profiles have been retrieved from SCIAMACHY/Envisat measurements of limb-scattered solar radiation. The retrieval is an improved version of an algorithm presented earlier. The retrieved aerosol extinction profiles are compared to co-located aerosol profile measurements with the SAGE II solar occultation instrument at a wavelength of 525 nm. Comparisons were carried out with two versions of the SAGE II data set (version 6.2 and the new version 7.0). In a global average sense the SCIAMACHY and the SAGE II version 7.0 extinction profiles agree to within about 10 % for altitudes above 15 km. Larger relative differences (up to 40 %) are observed at specific latitudes and altitudes. We also find differences between the two SAGE II data versions of up to 40 % for specific latitudes and altitudes. Sample results on the latitudinal and temporal variability of stratospheric aerosol extinction and optical depth during the SCIAMACHY mission period are presented. The results indicate that a series of volcanic eruptions is responsible for the increase in stratospheric aerosol optical depth from 2002 to 2012. Above about 28 km altitude volcanic eruptions are found to have negligible impact in the period 2002 to 2012.

Description: The tropopause inversion layer in baroclinic life cycles experiments: the role of diabatic and mixing processes Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions, 15, 21495-21537, 2015 Author(s): D. Kunkel, P. Hoor, and V. Wirth Recent studies on the formation of a quasi-permanent layer of enhanced static stability above the thermal tropopause revealed the contributions of dynamical and radiative processes. Dry dynamics lead to the evolution of a tropopause inversion layer (TIL) which is, however, too weak compared to observations and thus diabatic contributions are required. In this study we aim to assess the importance of diabatic as well as mixing processes in the understanding of TIL formation at midlatitudes. The non-hydrostatic model COSMO is applied in an idealized mid-latitude channel configuration to simulate baroclinic life cycles. The effect of individual diabatic, i.e. related to humidity and radiation, and turbulent processes is studied first to estimate the additional contribution of these processes to dry dynamics. In a second step these processes are stepwise included in the model to increase the complexity and finally estimate the relative importance of each process. The results suggest that including turbulence leads to a weaker TIL than in a dry reference simulation. In contrast, the TIL evolves stronger when radiation is included but the temporal occurrence is still comparable to the reference. Using various cloud schemes in the model shows that latent heat release and consecutive increased vertical motions foster an earlier and stronger appearance of the TIL than in all other life cycles. Furthermore, updrafts moisten the upper troposphere and as such increase the radiative effect from water vapor. Particularly, this process becomes more relevant for maintaining the TIL during later stages of the life cycles. Increased convergence of the vertical wind induced by updrafts and by propagating and potentially dissipating inertia-gravity waves further contributes to the enhanced stability of the lower stratosphere. Furthermore, radiative feedback of ice clouds reaching up to the tropopause is identified to potentially further affect the strength of the TIL in the region of the cloud.

Description: Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model The Cryosphere, 9, 1505-1521, 2015 Author(s): S. E. Chadburn, E. J. Burke, R. L. H. Essery, J. Boike, M. Langer, M. Heikenfeld, P. M. Cox, and P. Friedlingstein There is a large amount of organic carbon stored in permafrost in the northern high latitudes, which may become vulnerable to microbial decomposition under future climate warming. In order to estimate this potential carbon–climate feedback it is necessary to correctly simulate the physical dynamics of permafrost within global Earth system models (ESMs) and to determine the rate at which it will thaw. Additional new processes within JULES, the land-surface scheme of the UK ESM (UKESM), include a representation of organic soils, moss and bedrock and a modification to the snow scheme; the sensitivity of permafrost to these new developments is investigated in this study. The impact of a higher vertical soil resolution and deeper soil column is also considered. Evaluation against a large group of sites shows the annual cycle of soil temperatures is approximately 25 % too large in the standard JULES version, but this error is corrected by the model improvements, in particular by deeper soil, organic soils, moss and the modified snow scheme. A comparison with active layer monitoring sites shows that the active layer is on average just over 1 m too deep in the standard model version, and this bias is reduced by 70 cm in the improved version. Increasing the soil vertical resolution allows the full range of active layer depths to be simulated; by contrast, with a poorly resolved soil at least 50 % of the permafrost area has a maximum thaw depth at the centre of the bottom soil layer. Thus all the model modifications are seen to improve the permafrost simulations. Historical permafrost area corresponds fairly well to observations in all simulations, covering an area between 14 and 19 million km 2 . Simulations under two future climate scenarios show a reduced sensitivity of permafrost degradation to temperature, with the near-surface permafrost loss per degree of warming reduced from 1.5 million km 2 °C −1 in the standard version of JULES to between 1.1 and 1.2 million km 2 °C −1 in the new model version. However, the near-surface permafrost area is still projected to approximately half by the end of the 21st century under the RCP8.5 scenario.

Description: Numerical simulations of the Cordilleran ice sheet through the last glacial cycle The Cryosphere Discussions, 9, 4147-4203, 2015 Author(s): J. Seguinot, I. Rogozhina, A. P. Stroeven, M. Margold, and J. Kleman Despite more than a century of geological observations, the Cordilleran ice sheet of North America remains poorly understood in terms of its former extent, volume and dynamics. Although geomorphological evidence is abundant, its complexity is such that whole ice-sheet reconstructions of advance and retreat patterns are lacking. Here we use a numerical ice sheet model calibrated against field-based evidence to attempt a quantitative reconstruction of the Cordilleran ice sheet history through the last glacial cycle. A series of simulations is driven by time-dependent temperature offsets from six proxy records located around the globe. Although this approach reveals large variations in model response to evolving climate forcing, all simulations produce two major glaciations during marine oxygen isotope stages 4 (61.9–56.5 ka) and 2 (23.2–16.8 ka). The timing of glaciation is better reproduced using temperature reconstructions from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores than from regional oceanic sediment cores. During most of the last glacial cycle, the modelled ice cover is discontinuous and restricted to high mountain areas. However, widespread precipitation over the Skeena Mountains favours the persistence of a central ice dome throughout the glacial cycle. It acts as a nucleation centre before the Last Glacial Maximum and hosts the last remains of Cordilleran ice until the middle Holocene (6.6–6.2 ka).

Description: Receptor tyrosine kinases are essential proteins involved in cellular differentiation and proliferation in vivo and are heavily involved in allergic diseases, diabetes, and onset/proliferation of cancerous cells. Identifying the interacting partner of this protein, a growth factor ligand, will provide a deeper understanding of cellular proliferation/differentiation and other cell processes. In this study, we developed a method for predicting tyrosine kinase ligand-receptor pairs from their amino acid sequences. We collected tyrosine kinase ligand-receptor pairs from the Database of Interacting Proteins (DIP) and UniProtKB, filtered them by removing sequence redundancy, and used them as a dataset for machine learning and assessment of predictive performance. Our prediction method is based on support vector machines (SVMs), and we evaluated several input features suitable for tyrosine kinase for machine learning and compared and analyzed the results. Using sequence pattern information and domain information extracted from sequences as input features, we obtained 0.996 of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. This accuracy is higher than that obtained from general protein-protein interaction pair predictions.

Description: Stimulated Brillouin scattering during electron gyro-harmonic heating at EISCAT Annales Geophysicae, 33, 983-990, 2015 Author(s): H. Y. Fu, W. A. Scales, P. A. Bernhardt, S. J. Briczinski, M. J. Kosch, A. Senior, M. T. Rietveld, T. K. Yeoman, and J. M. Ruohoniemi Observations of secondary radiation, stimulated electromagnetic emission (SEE), produced during ionospheric modification experiments using ground-based, high-power, high-frequency (HF) radio waves are considered. The High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program (HAARP) facility is capable of generating narrowband SEE in the form of stimulated Brillouin scatter (SBS) and stimulated ion Bernstein scatter (SIBS) in the SEE spectrum. Such narrowband SEE spectral lines have not been reported using the European Incoherent Scatter (EISCAT) heater facility before. This work reports the first EISCAT results of narrowband SEE spectra and compares them to SEE previously observed at HAARP during electron gyro-harmonic heating. An analysis of experimental SEE data shows observations of emission lines within 100 Hz of the pump frequency, interpreted as SBS, during the 2012 July EISCAT campaign. Experimental results indicate that SBS strengthens as the pump frequency approaches the third electron gyro-harmonic. Also, for different heater antenna beam angles, the CUTLASS radar backscatter induced by HF radio pumping is suppressed near electron gyro-harmonics, whereas electron temperature enhancement weakens as measured by EISCAT/UHF radar. The main features of these new narrowband EISCAT observations are generally consistent with previous SBS measurements at HAARP.

Description: Optimizing the impact of temperature on bio-hydrogen production from food waste and its derivatives under no pH control using statistical modelling Biogeosciences Discussions, 12, 12823-12850, 2015 Author(s): A. Sattar, C. Arslan, C. Ji, S. Sattar, K. Yousaf, and S. Hashim The effect of temperature on bio-hydrogen production by co-digestion of sewerage sludge with food waste and its two derivatives, i.e. noodle waste and rice waste, was investigated by statistical modelling. Experimental results showed that increasing temperature from mesophilic (37 °C) to thermophilic (55 °C) was an effective mean for increasing bio-hydrogen production from food waste and noodle waste, but it caused a negative impact on bio-hydrogen production from rice waste. The maximum cumulative bio-hydrogen production of 650 mL was obtained from noodle waste under mesophilic temperature condition. Most of the production was observed during 48 h of incubation that continued till 72 h of incubation, and a decline in pH during this interval was 4.3 and 4.4 from a starting value of 7 under mesophilic and thermophilic conditions, respectively. Most of glucose consumption was also observed during 72 h of incubation and the maximum consumption was observed during the first 24 h, which was the same duration where the maximum pH drop occurred. The maximum hydrogen yields of 82.47 mL VS −1 , 131.38 mL COD −1 , and 44.90 mL glucose −1 were obtained from mesophilic food waste, thermophilic noodle waste and mesophilic rice waste respectively. The production of volatile fatty acids increased with an increase in time and temperature from food waste and noodle waste reactors whereas it decreased with temperature in rice waste reactors. The statistical modelling returned good results with high values of coefficient of determination ( R 2 ) for each waste type when it was opted for the study of cumulative hydrogen production, glucose consumption and volatile fatty acid production. The 3-D response surface plots developed by the statistical models helped a lot in developing better understanding of the impact of temperature and incubation time.

Description: Characterization and source apportionment of organic aerosol using offline aerosol mass spectrometry Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions, 8, 8599-8644, 2015 Author(s): K. R. Daellenbach, C. Bozzetti, A. Křepelová, F. Canonaco, R. Wolf, P. Zotter, P. Fermo, M. Crippa, J. G. Slowik, Y. Sosedova, Y. Zhang, R.-J. Huang, L. Poulain, S. Szidat, U. Baltensperger, A. S. H. Prévôt, and I. El Haddad Field deployments of the Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) have significantly advanced real-time measurements and source apportionment of non-refractory particulate matter. However, the cost and complex maintenance requirements of the AMS make impractical its deployment at sufficient sites to determine regional characteristics. Furthermore, the negligible transmission efficiency of the AMS inlet for supermicron particles significantly limits the characterization of their chemical nature and contributing sources. In this study, we utilize the AMS to characterize the water-soluble organic fingerprint of ambient particles collected onto conventional quartz filters, which are routinely sampled at many air quality sites. The method was applied to 256 particulate matter (PM) filter samples (PM 1 , PM 2.5 , PM 10 ) collected at 16 urban and rural sites during summer and winter. We show that the results obtained by the present technique compare well with those from co-located online measurements, e.g. AMS or Aerosol Chemical Speciation Monitor (ACSM). The bulk recoveries of organic aerosol (60–91 %) achieved using this technique, together with low detection limits (0.8 μg of organic aerosol on the analyzed filter fraction) allow its application to environmental samples. We will discuss the recovery variability of individual hydrocarbon, oxygen containing and other ions. The performance of such data in source apportionment is assessed in comparison to ACSM data. Recoveries of organic components related to different sources as traffic, wood burning and secondary organic aerosol are presented. This technique, while subjected to the limitations inherent to filter-based measurements (e.g. filter artifacts and limited time resolution) may be used to enhance the AMS capabilities in measuring size-fractionated, spatially-resolved long-term datasets.

Description: For the construction in cold regions, frost heave and thaw settlement are the two factors which must be taken care of. Considered that a saturated soil column was subjected to an overburden pressure to model the ice lens growing process. A typical process, which coupled water, heat, and stress that happened in a saturated freezing soil column, was simulated by the finite element software. We did the numerical simulation under the same conditions as the experiment tests and then compared the results from temperature, frost heave, frozen structure, water content, and water intake. Result shows that the simulation results match well with the experimental results, and the correctness of the mathematical model is validated. On that basis, frost heave amount under different conditions by changing the temperature boundary and loading boundary is obtained. The frost heave has an optimum temperature gradient. Under the optimum value, the frost heave amount increases with increasing temperature gradient. Above the optimum value, frost heave decreases with increasing temperature gradient. Increasing the overburden pressure, frost heave amount always decreases. These results can provide references for the constrictions in cold regions.

Description: An unconditionally stable method for solving the time-domain acoustic wave equation using Associated Hermit orthogonal functions is proposed. The second-order time derivatives in acoustic wave equation are expanded by these orthogonal basis functions. By applying Galerkin temporal testing procedure, the time variable can be eliminated from the calculations. The restriction of Courant-Friedrichs-Levy (CFL) condition in selecting time step for analyzing thin layer can be avoided. Numerical results show the accuracy and the efficiency of the proposed method.

Description: This paper proposes the use of simple proportional plus damping injection (P+d) controllers for delayed bilateral teleoperation of a rotorcraft UAV. The proposed control scheme involves P+d remote and local controllers, considers master and slave dynamics, and takes into account asymmetric time-varying delays. The stability of the proposed teleoperation system is analyzed using Lyapunov-Krasovskii functionals and delay-dependent stability criteria are obtained under linear-matrix-inequalities conditions. The performance of the teleoperation scheme is tested driving a virtual nonlinear 6DOF dynamic model of a minihelicopter in a human-in-the-loop simulation.

Description: Dams are among the most important hydraulic engineering facilities used for water supply, flood control, and hydroelectric power. Monitoring of dams is crucial since deformation might have occurred. How to obtain the deformation information and then judge the safe conditions is the key and difficult problem in dam deformation monitoring field. This paper proposes the periodic average system model and creates the concept of “settlement activity” based on the dam deformation issue. Long-term deformation monitoring data is carried out in a pumped-storage power station, this model combined with settlement activity is used to make the single point deformation analysis, and then the whole settlement activity profile is drawn by clustering analysis. Considering the cumulative settlement value of every point, the dam deformation trend is analyzed in an intuitive effect way. The analysis mode of combined single point with multipoints is realized. The results show that the key deformation information of the dam can be easily grasped by the application of the periodic average system model combined with the distribution diagram of settlement activity. And, above all, the ideas of this research provide an effective method for dam deformation analysis.

Description: Four tectonic forms samples were conducted to test their heat transfer coefficients. By analyzing and comparing the test values and theoretical values of the heat transfer coefficient, a corrected-value calculation method for determining the heat transfer coefficient was proposed; the proposed method was proved to be reasonably correct. The results indicated that the recycled concrete brick wall heat transfer coefficient is higher than that of the clay brick wall, the heat transfer coefficient of recycled concrete brick wall could be effectively reduced when combined with the EPS insulation board, and the sandwich insulation type was better than that of external thermal insulation type.

Description: Statistical detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 15, 1757-1761, 2015 Author(s): M. Raschke In this communication, I improve the detection and modeling of the over-dispersion of winter storm occurrence. For this purpose, the generalized Poisson distribution and the Bayesian information criterion are introduced; the latter is used for statistical model selection. Moreover, I replace the frequently used dispersion statistics by an over-dispersion parameter which does not depend on the considered return period of storm events. These models and methods are applied in order to properly detect the over-dispersion in winter storm data for Germany, carrying out a joint estimation of the distribution models for different samples.

Description: Impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes in a mountain stream Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 19, 3541-3556, 2015 Author(s): M. Majerova, B. T. Neilson, N. M. Schmadel, J. M. Wheaton, and C. J. Snow Beaver dams affect hydrologic processes, channel complexity, and stream temperature in part by inundating riparian areas, influencing groundwater–surface water interactions, and changing fluvial processes within stream systems. We explored the impacts of beaver dams on hydrologic and temperature regimes at different spatial and temporal scales within a mountain stream in northern Utah over a 3-year period spanning pre- and post-beaver colonization. Using continuous stream discharge, stream temperature, synoptic tracer experiments, and groundwater elevation measurements, we documented pre-beaver conditions in the first year of the study. In the second year, we captured the initial effects of three beaver dams, while the third year included the effects of ten dams. After beaver colonization, reach-scale (~ 750 m in length) discharge observations showed a shift from slightly losing to gaining. However, at the smaller sub-reach scale (ranging from 56 to 185 m in length), the discharge gains and losses increased in variability due to more complex flow pathways with beaver dams forcing overland flow, increasing surface and subsurface storage, and increasing groundwater elevations. At the reach scale, temperatures were found to increase by 0.38 °C (3.8 %), which in part is explained by a 230 % increase in mean reach residence time. At the smallest, beaver dam scale (including upstream ponded area, beaver dam structure, and immediate downstream section), there were notable increases in the thermal heterogeneity where warmer and cooler niches were created. Through the quantification of hydrologic and thermal changes at different spatial and temporal scales, we document increased variability during post-beaver colonization and highlight the need to understand the impacts of beaver dams on stream ecosystems and their potential role in stream restoration.