ALBERT

Description: Changes in the background climate are known to affect El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) by altering feedbacks that control ENSO’s characteristics. Here, the sensitivity of ENSO variability to the background climate is investigated by utilizing two Community Earth System Model, version 1 (CESM1), simulations in which the solar constant is altered by ±25 W m−2. The resulting stable warm and cold climate mean state simulations differ in terms of ENSO amplitude, frequency, diversity, asymmetry, and seasonality. In the warm run, ENSO reveals a larger amplitude and occurs at higher frequencies relative to the cold and control runs as well as observations. The warm run also features more eastern Pacific El Niños, an increased asymmetry, and a stronger seasonal phase locking. These changes are linked to changes in the mean state via the amplifying and damping feedbacks. In the warm run, a shallower mean thermocline results in a stronger subsurface–surface coupling, whereas the cold run reveals reduced ENSO variability due to a reduced Bjerknes feedback in accordance with a deeper mean thermocline and enhanced surface wind stress. A strong zonal advective and upwelling feedback further contribute to the large ENSO amplitude in the run with a warmer mean state. In the cold run, ENSO events are partly forced by anomalous shortwave radiation. However, in light of the large temperature contrast between the simulations of up to 6 K in the tropical Pacific, the relatively small changes in ENSO variability highlight the robustness of ENSO dynamics under vastly different climate mean states.

Description: Two decades of high-resolution satellite observations and climate modeling studies have indicated strong ocean–atmosphere coupled feedback mediated by ocean mesoscale processes, including semipermanent and meandrous SST fronts, mesoscale eddies, and filaments. The air–sea exchanges in latent heat, sensible heat, momentum, and carbon dioxide associated with this so-called mesoscale air–sea interaction are robust near the major western boundary currents, Southern Ocean fronts, and equatorial and coastal upwelling zones, but they are also ubiquitous over the global oceans wherever ocean mesoscale processes are active. Current theories, informed by rapidly advancing observational and modeling capabilities, have established the importance of mesoscale and frontal-scale air–sea interaction processes for understanding large-scale ocean circulation, biogeochemistry, and weather and climate variability. However, numerous challenges remain to accurately diagnose, observe, and simulate mesoscale air–sea interaction to quantify its impacts on large-scale processes. This article provides a comprehensive review of key aspects pertinent to mesoscale air–sea interaction, synthesizes current understanding with remaining gaps and uncertainties, and provides recommendations on theoretical, observational, and modeling strategies for future air–sea interaction research.

Description: Several years of moored turbulence measurements from xpods at three sites in the equatorial cold tongues of Atlantic and Pacific Oceans yield new insights into proxy estimates of turbulence that specifically target the cold tongues. They also reveal previously unknown wind dependencies of diurnally varying turbulence in the near-critical stratified shear layers beneath the mixed layer and above the core of the Equatorial Undercurrent that we have come to understand as deep cycle (DC) turbulence. Isolated by the mixed layer above, the DC layer is only indirectly linked to surface forcing. Yet, it varies diurnally in concert with daily changes in heating/cooling. Diurnal composites computed from 10-min averaged data at fixed xpod depths show that transitions from daytime to nighttime mixing regimes are increasingly delayed with weakening wind stress t. These transitions are also delayed with respect to depth such that they follow a descent rate of roughly 6 m h-1, independent of t. We hypothesize that this wind-dependent delay is a direct result of wind-dependent diurnal warm layer deepening, which acts as the trigger to DC layer instability by bringing shear from the surface down-ward but at rates much slower than 6 m h-1. This delay in initiation of DC layer instability contributes to a reduction in daily averaged values of turbulence dissipation. Both the absence of descending turbulence in the sheared DC layer prior to arrival of the diurnal warm layer shear and the magnitude of the subsequent descent rate after arrival are roughly predicted by laboratory experiments on entrainment in stratified shear flows.

Description: Numerical weather prediction models operate on grid spacings of a few kilometers, where deep convection begins to become resolvable. Around this scale, the emergence of coherent structures in the planetary boundary layer, often hypothesized to be caused by cold pools, forces the transition from shallow to deep convection. Yet, the kilometer-scale range is typically not resolved by standard surface operational measurement networks. The measurement campaign FESSTVaL aimed at addressing this gap by observing atmospheric variability at the hectometer to kilometer scale, with a particular emphasis on cold pools, wind gusts and coherent patterns in the planetary boundary layer during summer. A unique feature was the distribution of 150 self-developed and low-cost instruments. More specifically, FESSTVaL included dense networks of 80 autonomous cold pool loggers, 19 weather stations and 83 soil sensor systems, all installed in a rural region of 15-km radius in eastern Germany, as well as self-developed weather stations handed out to citizens. Boundary layer and upper air observations were provided by 8 Doppler lidars and 4 microwave radiometers distributed at 3 supersites; water vapor and temperature were also measured by advanced lidar systems and an infrared spectrometer; and rain was observed by a X-band radar. An uncrewed aircraft, multicopters and a small radiometer network carried out additional measurements during a four-week period. In this paper, we present FESSTVaL’s measurement strategy and show first observational results including unprecedented highly-resolved spatio-temporal cold-pool structures, both in the horizontal as well as in the vertical dimension, associated with overpassing convective systems.

Description: We investigate the origin of the equatorial Pacific cold sea surface temperature (SST) bias and its link to wind biases, local and remote, in the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The cold bias is common in climate models participating in the 5 th and 6 th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. In the coupled experiments with the KCM, the interannually varying NCEP/CFSR wind stress is prescribed over four spatial domains: globally, over the equatorial Pacific (EP), the northern Pacific (NP) and southern Pacific (SP). The corresponding EP SST bias is reduced by 100%, 52%, 12% and 23%, respectively. Thus, the EP SST bias is mainly attributed to the local wind bias, with small but not negligible contributions from the extratropical regions. Erroneous ocean circulation driven by overly strong winds cause the cold SST bias, while the surface-heat flux counteracts it. Extratropical Pacific SST biases contribute to the EP cold bias via the oceanic subtropical gyres, which is further enhanced by dynamical coupling in the equatorial region. The origin of the wind biases is examined by forcing the atmospheric component of the KCM in a stand-alone mode with observed SSTs and simulated SSTs from the coupled experiments. Wind biases over the EP, NP and SP regions originate in the atmosphere model. The cold EP SST bias substantially enhances the wind biases over all three regions, while the NP and SP SST biases support local amplification of the wind bias. This study suggests that improving surface-wind stress, at and off the equator, is a key to improve mean-state equatorial Pacific SST in climate models.

Description: As an important external forcing, the effect of the 11-yr solar cycle on the tropical Pacific decadal variability is an interesting question. Here, we systematically investigate the phase-locking of the atmosphere and ocean covariations to the solar cycle in the tropical Pacific and propose a new mechanism to explain these decadal covariations. In both observation/reanalysis datasets and a solar cycle forced sensitivity experiment (named the SOL experiment), the ocean heat content anomalies (OHCa; 300 m) resemble a La Niña–like pattern in the solar cycle ascending phase, and the Walker circulation shifts westward. In the declining phase, the opposite is true. The accumulative solar irradiation directly contributes to this coherent decadal variability via changing the warm water volume and the solar-related heat is redistributed by the ocean dynamic processes. During the 11-yr solar cycle, the Pacific Walker circulation anomalies maintain the OHCa in the western equatorial Pacific and work as negative feedback for the eastern Pacific to help the OHCa phase transition. In addition, oceanic meridional heat transport via the subtropical cells and the propagation of off-equatorial Rossby waves also provide a lagged negative feedback to the OHCa phase transition according to the 11-yr solar cycle. The decadal coupled responses of the tropical Pacific climate system are 2 years more lag in the SOL experiment than in the observation/reanalysis. Significance Statement Here, we propose a new mechanism that the heating effect of the accumulative solar irradiation during the 11-yr solar cycle can be “integrated” into the tropical Pacific OHC and then provide a bottom-up effect on the atmosphere at decadal time scales. The strongly coupled processes in this region amplify the decadal phase-locking of the covariations to the 11-yr solar cycle. Our study demonstrates the role of the 11-yr solar cycle in the tropical Pacific decadal variability and provides a new explanation for the “bottom-up” mechanism of the solar cycle forcing. Our results update the understanding of the tropical Pacific decadal variability and may help to improve climate predictions at decadal time scales.

Description: Numerical simulations allow us to gain a comprehensive understanding of the underlying mechanisms of past, present and future climate changes. The mid-Holocene and the last interglacial were the two most recent warm episodes of Earth’s climate history and are the focus of paleoclimate research. Here, we present results of MH and LIG simulations with two versions of the state-of-the-art earth system model AWI-ESM. Most of the climate changes in MH and LIG compared to the pre-industrial era are agreed upon by the two model versions, including: (1) enhanced seasonality in surface temperature which is driven by the redistribution of seasonal insolation; (2) northward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and tropical rain belt; (3) a reduction in annual mean Arctic sea ice concentration; (4) weakening and northward displacement of the Northern Hemisphere Hadley Circulation, which is related to the decrease and poleward shift of the temperature gradient from the subtropical to the equator in the Northern Hemisphere; (5) westward shift of the Indo-PacificWalker Circulation due to anomalous warming over the Eurasia and North Africa during boreal summer; and (6) expansion and intensification of Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon rainfall, with the latter being dominated by the dynamic component of moisture budget, i.e., the strengthening of wind circulation. However, the simulated responses of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in the two models yield different results for both the LIG and the MH. AMOC anomalies between the warm interglacial and pre-industrial periods are associated with changes in North Atlantic westerly winds and stratification of the water column at the North Atlantic due to changes in ocean temperature, salinity and density.

Description: This study utilizes observations and a series of idealized experiments to explore whether eastern Pacific (EP)- and central Pacific (CP)-type El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events produce surface wind stress responses with distinct spatial structures. We find that the meridionally broader sea surface temperatures (SSTs) during CP events lead to zonal wind stresses that are also meridionally broader than those found during EP-type events, leading to differences in the near-equatorial wind stress curl. These wind spatial structure differences create differences in the associated pre- and post-ENSO event WWV response. For instance, the meridionally narrow winds found during EP events have (i) weaker wind stresses along 58N and 58S, leading to weaker Ekman-induced pre-event WWV changes; and (ii) stronger near-equatorial wind stress curls that lead to a much larger post-ENSO event WWV changes than during CP events. The latter suggests that, in the framework of the recharge oscillator model, the EP events have stronger coupling between sea surface temperatures (SST) and thermocline (WWV), supporting more clearly the phase transition of ENSO events, and therefore, the oscillating nature of ENSO than CP events. The results suggest that the spatial structure of the SST pattern and the related differences in the wind stress curl, are required along with equatorial wind stress to accurately model the WWV changes during EP- and CP-type ENSO events.

Description: Equatorial deep jets (EDJ) are zonal currents along the equator in all three ocean basins that alternate in direction with depth and time. In the Atlantic below the thermocline, they are the dominant variability on interannual timescales. Observations of equatorial deep jets are available but scarce, given the EDJs’ location at depth, their small vertical scale and their long periodicity of several years. In the last few years, Argo floats have added a significant amount of measurements at intermediate depth. In this study we therefore revise estimates of the EDJ scales based on Argo float data. Mostly, we use velocity data at 1000 m depth calculated from float displacement, which yield robust estimates of the Atlantic EDJ period (4.6 years), amplitude distribution, phase distribution, zonal wavelength (146.7°), and meridional structure. We also show that the equatorial amplitude of the EDJs’ first meridional mode Rossby wave component (9.8 cm s −1 ) is larger than that of their Kelvin wave component (2.8 cm s −1 ). Additionally, we present a new estimation of the EDJs’ vertical structure throughout the Atlantic basin, based on an equatorial geostrophic velocity reconstruction from hydrographic Argo float measurements from depths between 400 and 2000 m. Our new estimates from Argo float data provide the first basin-wide assessment of the Atlantic EDJ scales, as well as having smaller uncertainties than estimates from earlier studies.

Description: The physical processes driving the genesis of surface- and subsurface-intensified cyclonic and anticyclonic eddies originating from the coastal current system of the Mauritanian Upwelling Region are investigated using a high-resolution (~1.5 km) configuration of GFDL’s Modular Ocean Model. Estimating an energy budget for the boundary current reveals a baroclinically unstable state during its intensification phase in boreal summer and which is driving eddy generation within the near-coastal region. The mean poleward coastal flow’s interaction with the sloping topography induces enhanced anticyclonic vorticity, with potential vorticity close to zero generated in the bottom boundary layer. Flow separation at sharp topographic bends intensifies the anticyclonic vorticity, and submesoscale structures of low PV coalesce to form anticyclonic vortices. A combination of offshore Ekman transport and horizontal advection determined the amount of SACW in an anticyclonic eddy. A vortex with a relatively dense and low PV core will form an anticyclonic mode-water eddy, which will subduct along isopycnals while propagating offshore and hence be shielded from surface buoyancy forcing. Less contribution of dense SACW promotes the generation of surface anticyclonic eddies as the core is composed of a lighter water mass, which causes the eddy to stay closer to the surface and hence be exposed to surface buoyancy forcing. Simulated cyclonic eddies are formed between the rotational flow of an offshore anticyclonic vortex and a poleward flowing boundary current, with eddy potential energy being the dominant source of eddy kinetic energy. All three types of eddies play a key role in the exchange between the Mauritanian Coastal currents system and the adjacent eastern boundary shadow zone region.

Description: The Earth system is accumulating energy due to human-induced activities. More than 90% of this energy has been stored in the ocean as heat since 1970, with similar to 60% of that in the upper 700 m. Differences in upper-ocean heat content anomaly (OHCA) estimates, however, exist. Here, we use a dataset protocol for 1970-2008-with six instrumental bias adjustments applied to expendable bathythermograph (XBT) data, and mapped by six research groups-to evaluate the spatiotemporal spread in upper OHCA estimates arising from two choices: 1) those arising from instrumental bias adjustments and 2) those arising from mathematical (i.e., mapping) techniques to interpolate and extrapolate data in space and time. We also examined the effect of a common ocean mask, which reveals that exclusion of shallow seas can reduce global OHCA estimates up to 13%. Spread due to mapping method is largest in the Indian Ocean and in the eddy-rich and frontal regions of all basins. Spread due to XBT bias adjustment is largest in the Pacific Ocean within 30 degrees N-30 degrees S. In both mapping and XBT cases, spread is higher for 1990-2004. Statistically different trends among mapping methods are found not only in the poorly observed Southern Ocean but also in the well-observed northwest Atlantic. Our results cannot determine the best mapping or bias adjustment schemes, but they identify where important sensitivities exist, and thus where further understanding will help to refine OHCA estimates. These results highlight the need for further coordinated OHCA studies to evaluate the performance of existing mapping methods along with comprehensive assessment of uncertainty estimates.

Description: Modular Observation Solutions of Earth Systems (MOSES) is a novel observation system that is specifically designed to unravel the impact of distinct, dynamic events on the long-term development of environmental systems. Hydrometeorological extremes such as the recent European droughts or the floods of 2013 caused severe and lasting environmental damage. Modeling studies suggest that abrupt permafrost thaw events accelerate Arctic greenhouse gas emissions. Short-lived ocean eddies seem to comprise a significant share of the marine carbon uptake or release. Although there is increasing evidence that such dynamic events bear the potential for major environmental impacts, our knowledge on the processes they trigger is still very limited. MOSES aims at capturing such events, from their formation to their end, with high spatial and temporal resolution. As such, the observation system extends and complements existing national and international observation networks, which are mostly designed for long-term monitoring. Several German Helmholtz Association centers have developed this research facility as a mobile and modular “system of systems” to record energy, water, greenhouse gas, and nutrient cycles on the land surface, in coastal regions, in the ocean, in polar regions, and in the atmosphere—but especially the interactions between the Earth compartments. During the implementation period (2017–21), the measuring systems were put into operation and test campaigns were performed to establish event-driven campaign routines. With MOSES’s regular operation starting in 2022, the observation system will then be ready for cross-compartment and cross-discipline research on the environmental impacts of dynamic events.

Description: Since 1750, land use change and fossil fuel combustion has led to a 46 % increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, causing global warming with substantial societal consequences. The Paris Agreement aims to limiting global temperature increases to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Increasing levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases (GHGs), such as methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O), in the atmosphere are the primary cause of climate change. Approximately half of the carbon emissions to the atmosphere is sequestered by ocean and land sinks, leading to ocean acidification but also slowing the rate of global warming. However, there are significant uncertainties in the future global warming scenarios due to uncertainties in the size, nature and stability of these sinks. Quantifying and monitoring the size and timing of natural sinks and the impact of climate change on ecosystems are important information to guide policy-makers’ decisions and strategies on reductions in emissions. Continuous, long-term observations are required to quantify GHG emissions, sinks, and their impacts on Earth systems. The Integrated Carbon Observation System (ICOS) was designed as the European in situ observation and information system to support science and society in their efforts to mitigate climate change. It provides standardized and open data currently from over 140 measurement stations across 12 European countries. The stations observe GHG concentrations in the atmosphere and carbon and GHG fluxes between the atmosphere, land surface and the oceans. This article describes how ICOS fulfills its mission to harmonize these observations, ensure the related long-term financial commitments, provide easy access to well-documented and reproducible high-quality data and related protocols and tools for scientific studies, and deliver information and GHG-related products to stakeholders in society and policy.

Description: In the equatorial Atlantic Ocean, meridional velocity variability exhibits a pronounced peak on intraseasonal timescales whereas zonal velocity dominantly varies on seasonal to interannual timescales. We focus on the intraseasonal meridional velocity variability away from the near-surface layer, its source regions and its pathways into the deep ocean. This deep intraseasonal velocity variability plays a key role in equatorial dynamics as it is an important energy source for the deep equatorial circulation. The results are based on the output of a high-resolution ocean model revealing intraseasonal energy levels along the equator at all depths that are in good agreement with shipboard and moored velocity data. Spectral analyses reveal a pronounced signal of intraseasonal Yanai waves with westward phase velocities and zonal wavelengths longer than 450 km. Different sources and characteristics of these Yanai waves are identified: near the surface between 40°W and 10°W low-baroclinic-mode Yanai waves with periods of around 30 days are exited. These waves have a strong seasonal cycle with a maximum in August. High-frequency Yanai waves (10–20-day period) are excited at the surface east of 10°W. In the region between the North Brazil Current and the Equatorial Undercurrent high-baroclinic-mode Yanai waves with periods between 30 and 40 days are generated. Yanai waves with longer periods (40-80 days) are shed from the Deep Western Boundary Current. The Yanai wave energy is carried along beams east- and downward thus explaining differences in strength, structure and periodicity of the meridional intraseasonal variability in the equatorial Atlantic Ocean.

Description: Marine heatwaves along the coast ofWestern Australia, referred to as Ningaloo Niño, have had dramatic impacts on the ecosystem in the recent decade. A number of local and remote forcing mechanisms have been put forward, however little is known about the depth structure of such temperature extremes. Utilizing an eddy-active global Ocean General Circulation Model, Ningaloo Niño and the corresponding cold Ningaloo Niña events are investigated between 1958-2016, with focus on their depth structure. The relative roles of buoyancy and wind forcing are inferred from sensitivity experiments. Composites reveal a strong symmetry between cold and warm events in their vertical structure and associated large-scale spatial patterns. Temperature anomalies are largest at the surface, where buoyancy forcing is dominant and extend down to 300m depth (or deeper), with wind forcing being the main driver. Large-scale subsurface anomalies arise from a vertical modulation of the thermocline, extending from the western Pacific into the tropical eastern Indian Ocean. The strongest Ningaloo Niños in 2000 and 2011 are unprecedented compound events, where long-lasting high temperatures are accompanied by extreme freshening, which emerges in association with La Niñas, more common and persistent during the negative phase of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation. It is shown that Ningaloo Niños during La Nina phases have a distinctively deeper reach and are associated with a strengthening of the Leeuwin Current, while events during El Niño are limited to the surface layer temperatures, likely driven by local atmosphere-ocean feedbacks, without a clear imprint on salinity and velocity.

Description: The Antarctic Slope Front (ASF) is a fundamental feature of the subpolar Southern Ocean that is still poorly observed. In this study we build a statistical climatology of the temperature and salinity fields of the upper 380 m of the Antarctic margin. We use a comprehensive compilation of observational datasets including the profiles gathered by instrumented marine mammals. The mapping method consists first of a decomposition in vertical modes of the combined temperature and salinity profiles. Then the resulting principal components are optimally interpolated on a regular grid and the monthly climatological profiles are reconstructed, providing a physically plausible representation of the ocean. The ASF is located with a contour method and a gradient method applied on the temperature field, two complementary approaches that provide a complete view of the ASF structure. The front extends from the Amundsen Sea to the eastern Weddell Sea and closely tracks the continental shelf break. It is associated with a sharp temperature gradient that is stronger in winter and weaker in summer. The emergence of the front in the Amundsen and Bellingshausen sectors appears to be seasonally variable (slightly more westward in winter than in summer). Investigation of the density gradients across the shelf break indicates a winter slowdown of the baroclinic component of the Antarctic Slope Current at the near surface, in contrast with the seasonal variability of the temperature gradient.

Description: There is a controversy about the nature of multidecadal climate variability in the North Atlantic (NA) region, concerning the roles of ocean circulation and atmosphere–ocean coupling. Here we describe NA multidecadal variability from a version of the Kiel Climate Model, in which both subpolar gyre (SPG)–Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) coupling and atmosphere–ocean coupling are essential. The oceanic barotropic and meridional overturning streamfunctions and the sea level pressure are jointly analyzed to derive the leading mode of Atlantic sector variability. This mode accounting for 23.7% of the total combined variance is oscillatory with an irregular periodicity of 25–50 years and an e-folding time of about a decade. SPG and AMOC mutually influence each other and together provide the delayed negative feedback necessary for maintaining the oscillation. An anomalously strong SPG, for example, drives higher surface salinity and density in the NA’s sinking region. In response, oceanic deep convection and AMOC intensify, which, with a time delay of about a decade, reduces SPG strength by enhancing upper-ocean heat content. The weaker gyre leads to lower surface salinity and density in the sinking region, which reduces deep convection and eventually AMOC strength. There is a positive ocean–atmosphere feedback between the sea surface temperature and low-level atmospheric circulation over the southern Greenland area, with related wind stress changes reinforcing SPG changes, thereby maintaining the (damped) multidecadal oscillation against dissipation. Stochastic surface heat flux forcing associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation drives the eigenmode.

Description: The Agulhas Current (AC) creates a sharp temperature gradient with the surrounding ocean, leading to a large turbulent flux of moisture from ocean to atmosphere. We use two simulations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to show the seasonal impact of the warm core of the AC on southern Africa precipitation. In one simulation the sea surface temperature (SST) of the AC is similar to satellite observations, while the second uses satellite SST observations spatially smoothed to reduce the temperature of the core of the AC by ~1.5°C. We show that decreasing the SST of the AC reduces the precipitation of the wettest seasons (austral summer and autumn) inland. Over the ocean, reducing the SST reduces precipitation, low-level wind convergence, SST and SLP Laplacian above the AC in all seasons, consistent with the pressure adjustment mechanism. Moreover, winter precipitation above the Current may be also related to increased latent flux. In summer and autumn, the AC SST reduction is also associated with decreased precipitation further inland (more than 1.5 mm/day), caused by an atmospheric circulation that decreases the horizontal moisture flux from the AC to South Africa. The reduction is also associated with higher geopotential height extending from the surface east and over the AC to the mid-troposphere over southeastern Africa. The westward tilted geopotential height is consistent with the linear response to shallow diabatic heating in midlatitudes. An identical mechanism occurs in spring but is weaker. Winter rainfall response is confined above the AC.

Description: Spatial and temporal variations of nutrient-rich upwelled water across the major eastern boundary upwelling systems are primarily controlled by the surface wind with different, and sometimes contrasting, impacts on coastal upwelling systems driven by alongshore wind and offshore upwelling systems driven by the local wind-stress-curl. Here, concurrently measured wind-fields, satellite-derived Chlorophyll-a concentration along with a state-of-the-art ocean model simulation spanning 2008-2018 are used to investigate the connection between coastal and offshore physical drivers of the Benguela Upwelling System (BUS). Our results indicate that the spatial structure of long-term mean upwelling derived from Ekman theory and the numerical model are fairly consistent across the entire BUS and closely followed by the Chlorophyll-a pattern. The variability of the upwelling from the Ekman theory is proportionally diminished with offshore distance, whereas different and sometimes opposite structures are revealed in the model-derived upwelling. Our result suggests the presence of sub-mesoscale activity (i.e., filaments and eddies) across the entire BUS with a large modulating effect on the wind-stress-curl-driven upwelling off Lüderitz and Walvis Bay. In Kunene and Cape Frio upwelling cells, located in the northern sector of the BUS, the coastal upwelling and open-ocean upwelling frequently alternate each other, whereas they are modulated by the annual cycle and mostly in phase off Walvis Bay. Such a phase relationship appears to be strongly seasonally dependent off Lüderitz and across the southern BUS. Thus, our findings suggest this relationship is far more complex than currently thought and seems to be sensitive to climate changes with short- and far-reaching consequences for this vulnerable marine ecosystem.

Description: Enhanced Southern Ocean ventilation in recent decades has been suggested to be a relevant modulator of the observed changes in ocean heat and carbon uptake. This study focuses on the Southern Ocean midlatitude ventilation changes from the 1960s to the 2010s. A global 1/4° configuration of the NEMO–Louvain-la-Neuve sea ice model, version 2 (LIM2), including the inert tracer CFC-12 (a proxy of ocean ventilation) is forced with the CORE, phase II (CORE-II), and JRA-55 driving ocean (JRA55-do) atmospheric reanalyses. Sensitivity experiments, where the variability of wind stress and/or the buoyancy forcing is suppressed on interannual time scales, are used to unravel the mechanisms driving ventilation changes. Ventilation changes are estimated by comparing CFC-12 interior inventories among the different experiments. All simulations suggest a multidecadal fluctuation of Southern Ocean ventilation, with a decrease until the 1980s–90s and a subsequent increase. This evolution is related to the atmospheric forcing and is caused by the (often counteracting) effects of wind stress and buoyancy forcing. Until the 1980s, increased buoyancy gains caused the ventilation decrease, whereas the subsequent ventilation increase was driven by strengthened wind stress causing deeper mixed layers and a stronger meridional overturning circulation. Wind stress emerges as the main driver of ventilation changes, even though buoyancy forcing modulates its trend and decadal variability. The three Southern Ocean basins take up CFC-12 in distinct density intervals but overall respond similarly to the atmospheric forcing. This study suggests that Southern Ocean ventilation is expected to increase as long as the effect of increasing Southern Hemisphere wind stress overwhelms that of increased stratification.

Description: The cold-water coral Lophelia pertusa builds up bioherms that sustain high biodiversity in the deep ocean worldwide. Photographic monitoring of the polyp activity represents a helpful tool to characterize the health status of the corals and to assess anthropogenic impacts on the microhabitat. Discriminating active polyps from skeletons of white Lophelia pertusa is usually time-consuming and error-prone due to their similarity in color in common RGB camera footage. Acquisition of finer resolved spectral information might increase the contrast between the segments of polyps and skeletons, and therefore could support automated classification and accurate activity estimation of polyps. For recording the needed footage, underwater multispectral imaging systems can be used, but they are often expensive and bulky. Here we present results of a new, light-weight, compact and low-cost deep-sea tunable LED-based underwater multispectral imaging system (TuLUMIS) with eight spectral channels. A brunch of healthy white Lophelia pertusa was observed under controlled conditions in a laboratory tank. Spectral reflectance signatures were extracted from pixels of polyps and skeletons of the observed coral. Results showed that the polyps can be better distinguished from the skeleton by analysis of the eight-dimensional spectral reflectance signatures compared to three-channel RGB data. During a 72-hour monitoring of the coral with a half-hour temporal resolution in the lab, the polyp activity was estimated based on the results of the multispectral pixel classification using a support vector machine (SVM) approach. The computational estimated polyp activity was consistent with that of the manual annotation, which yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.957.

Description: The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on the planet, with far-reaching global impacts. It is therefore key to evaluate ENSO simulations in state-of-the-art numerical models used to study past, present and future climate. Recently, the Pacific Region Panel of the International Climate and Ocean - Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR) Project, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), led a community-wide effort to evaluate the simulation of ENSO variability, teleconnections and processes in climate models. The new CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package enables model diagnosis, comparison, and evaluation to (1) highlight aspects that need improvement; (2) monitor progress across model generations; (3) help in selecting models that are well suited for particular analyses; (4) reveal links between various model biases, illuminating the impacts of those biases on ENSO and its sensitivity to climate change; and to (5) advance ENSO literacy. By interfacing with existing model evaluation tools, the ENSO metrics package enables rapid analysis of multi-petabyte databases of simulations, such as those generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 models are found to significantly outperform those from CMIP5 for 8 out of 24 ENSO-relevant metrics, with most CMIP6 models showing improved tropical Pacific seasonality and ENSO teleconnections. Only one ENSO metric is significantly degraded in CMIP6, namely the coupling between the ocean surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, while the majority of metrics remain unchanged.

Description: This study demonstrates that the generalization that strong anomalous equatorial Pacific westerly (easterly) winds during El Niño (La Niña) events displays strong adjusted warm water volume (WWV) discharges (recharges) is often incorrect. Using ocean model simulations, we categorize the oceanic adjusted responses to strong anomalous equatorial winds into two categories: (i) transitioning (consistent with the above generalization); and (ii) neutral adjusted responses (with negligible WWV re- and discharge) During the 1980-2016 period only 47% of strong anomalous equatorial winds are followed by transitioning adjusted responses, while the remaining are followed by neutral adjusted responses. Moreover, 55% (only 30%) of the strongest winds lead to transitioning adjusted responses during the pre-2000 (post-2000) period in agreement with the previously reported post-2000 decline of WWV lead time to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. The prominent neutral adjusted WWV response is shown to be largely excited by anomalous wind stress forcing with a weaker curl (on average consistent with a higher ratio of off-equatorial to equatorial wind events) and weaker Rossby wave projection than the transitioning adjusted response. We also identify a prominent ENSO phase asymmetry where strong anomalous equatorial westerly winds (i.e., El Niño events) are roughly 1.6 times more likely to strongly discharge WWV than strong anomalous equatorial easterly winds (i.e., La Niña events) are to strongly recharge WWV. This ENSO phase asymmetry may be added to the list of mechanisms proposed to explain why El Niño events have a stronger tendency to be followed by La Niña events than vice versa.

Description: The extratropical effect of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO), known as the Holton-Tan effect, is manifest as a weaker, warmer winter Arctic polar vortex during the east QBO phase. While previous studies have shown that the extratropical QBO signal is caused by the modified propagation of planetary waves in the stratosphere, the mechanism dominating the onset and seasonal development of the Holton-Tan effects remains unclear. Here, the governing wave-mean flow dynamics of the early winter extratropical QBO signal onset and its reversibility is investigated on a synoptic time scale with a finite-amplitude diagnostic using reanalysis and a chemistry-climate model. The extratropical QBO signal onset in October is found to primarily result from modulated stratospheric life cycles of wave pulses entering the stratosphere from the troposphere, rather than from a modulation of their tropospheric wave source. A comprehensive analysis of the wave activity budget during fall, when the stratospheric winter polar vortex starts forming and waves start propagating up into the stratosphere, shows significant differences. During the east QBO phase, the deceleration of the mid-high-latitude stratospheric zonal-mean jet by the upward-propagating wave pulses is less reversible, due to stronger dissipation processes, while during the west phase, a more reversible deceleration of the main polar vortex is found owing to the waves being dissipated at lower latitudes, accompanied by a weak but different response of the tropospheric subtropical jet. From this synoptic wave-event viewpoint, the early season onset of the Holton-Tan effect results from the cumulative effect of the QBO dependent wave-induced deceleration during the life cycle of individual upward wave pulses.

Description: The representation of tropical precipitation is evaluated across three generations of models participating in phases 3, 5, and 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). Compared to state-of-the-art observations, improvements in tropical precipitation in the CMIP6 models are identified for some metrics, but we find no general improvement in tropical precipitation on different temporal and spatial scales. Our results indicate overall little changes across the CMIP phases for the summer monsoons, the double-ITCZ bias, and the diurnal cycle of tropical precipitation. We find a reduced amount of drizzle events in CMIP6, but tropical precipitation occurs still too frequently. Continuous improvements across the CMIP phases are identified for the number of consecutive dry days, for the representation of modes of variability, namely, the Madden–Julian oscillation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation, and for the trends in dry months in the twentieth century. The observed positive trend in extreme wet months is, however, not captured by any of the CMIP phases, which simulate negative trends for extremely wet months in the twentieth century. The regional biases are larger than a climate change signal one hopes to use the models to identify. Given the pace of climate change as compared to the pace of model improvements to simulate tropical precipitation, we question the past strategy of the development of the present class of global climate models as the mainstay of the scientific response to climate change. We suggest the exploration of alternative approaches such as high-resolution storm-resolving models that can offer better prospects to inform us about how tropical precipitation might change with anthropogenic warming.

Description: Weather and climate variations on subseasonal to decadal time scales can have enormous social, economic, and environmental impacts, making skillful predictions on these time scales a valuable tool for decision-makers. As such, there is a growing interest in the scientific, operational, and applications communities in developing forecasts to improve our foreknowledge of extreme events. On subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) time scales, these include high-impact meteorological events such as tropical cyclones, extratropical storms, floods, droughts, and heat and cold waves. On seasonal to decadal (S2D) time scales, while the focus broadly remains similar (e.g., on precipitation, surface and upper-ocean temperatures, and their effects on the probabilities of high-impact meteorological events), understanding the roles of internal variability and externally forced variability such as anthropogenic warming in forecasts also becomes important. The S2S and S2D communities share common scientific and technical challenges. These include forecast initialization and ensemble generation; initialization shock and drift; understanding the onset of model systematic errors; bias correction, calibration, and forecast quality assessment; model resolution; atmosphere-ocean coupling; sources and expectations for predictability; and linking research, operational forecasting, and end-user needs. In September 2018 a coordinated pair of international conferences, framed by the above challenges, was organized jointly by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) and the World Weather Research Programme (WWRP). These conferences surveyed the state of S2S and S2D prediction, ongoing research, and future needs, providing an ideal basis for synthesizing current and emerging developments in these areas that promise to enhance future operational services. This article provides such a synthesis.

Description: There is a zonally oriented teleconnection pattern over the high-latitude Eurasian continent, which is maintained through baroclinic energy conversion. In this study, we investigate the unique features of the maintenance mechanism of this teleconnection. It is found that the baroclinic energy conversion is most efficient in both the mid-troposphere and the lower troposphere, and that the baroclinic energy conversion in the lower troposphere is comparable to that in the mid-troposphere. Further results indicate that the basic state plays a crucial role in the baroclinic energy conversion. For both the mid and lower troposphere, the atmospheric stability is low and the Coriolis parameter is large over high-latitude Eurasia, favoring strong baroclinic energy conversion. Particularly, in the lower troposphere, the atmospheric stability exhibits a clear land-sea contrast, favoring baroclinic energy conversion over the continents rather than the oceans. Furthermore, in the lower troposphere, the in-phase configuration of the meridional wind and temperature anomalies, which results from the strong meridional gradient of mean temperature around the north edge of the Eurasian continent, also significantly contributes to baroclinic energy conversion. This study highlights the role of the basic state of temperature rather than zonal wind in maintaining the high-latitude teleconnection through baroclinic energy conversion.

Description: Subtropical dry zones, located in the Hadley cells' subsidence regions, strongly influence regional climate as well as outgoing longwave radiation. Changes in these dry zones could have significant impact on surface climate as well as on the atmospheric energy budget. This study investigates the behavior of upper-tropospheric dry zones in a changing climate, using the variable upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH), calculated from climate model experiment output as well as from radiances measured with satellite-based sensors. The global UTH distribution shows that dry zones form a belt in the subtropical winter hemisphere. In the summer hemisphere they concentrate over the eastern ocean basins, where the descent regions of the subtropical anticyclones are located. Recent studies with model and satellite data have found tendencies of increasing dryness at the poleward edges of the subtropical subsidence zones. However, UTH calculated from climate simulations with 25 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) shows these tendencies only for parts of the winter-hemispheric dry belts. In the summer hemisphere, even though differences exist between the simulations, UTH is increasing in most dry zones, particularly in the South and North Pacific Ocean. None of the summer dry zones is expanding in these simulations. Upper-tropospheric dry zones estimated from observational data do not show any robust signs of change since 1979. Apart from a weak drying tendency at the poleward edge of the southern winter-hemispheric dry belt in infrared measurements, nothing indicates that the subtropical dry belts have expanded poleward.

Description: It might be impossible to truly fathom the magnitude of the threat that global-mean sea level rise poses. However, conceptualizing the scale of the solutions required to protect ourselves against global-mean sea level rise, aids in our ability to acknowledge and understand the threat that sea level rise poses. On these grounds, we here discuss a means to protect over 25 million people and important economical regions in northern Europe against sea level rise. We propose the construction of a Northern European Enclosure Dam (NEED) that stretches between France, the United Kingdom and Norway. NEED may seem an overwhelming and unrealistic solution at first. However, our preliminary study suggests that NEED is potentially favorable financially, but also in scale, impacts and challenges compared to that of alternative solutions, such as (managed) migrations and that of country-by-country protection efforts. The mere realization that a solution as considerable as NEED might be a viable and cost-effective protection measure is illustrative of the extraordinary global threat of global-mean sea level rise that we are facing. As such, the concept of constructing NEED showcases the extent of protection efforts that are required if mitigation efforts fail to limit sea level rise.

Description: The comparison of equivalent neutral winds obtained from (a) four WHOI buoys in the subtropics and (b) scatterometer estimates at those locations reveals a root-mean-square (RMS) difference of 0.56-0.76 m/s. To investigate this RMS difference, different buoy wind error sources were examined. These buoys are particularly well suited to examine two important sources of buoy wind errors because: (1) redundant anemometers and a comparison with numerical flow simulations allow us to quantitatively assess flow distortion errors, and (2) one-minute sampling at the buoys allows us to examine the sensitivity of buoy temporal sampling/averaging in the buoy-scatterometer comparisons. The inter-anemometer difference varies as a function of wind direction relative to the buoy wind vane and is consistent with the effects of flow distortion expected based on numerical flow simulations. Comparison between the anemometers and scatterometer winds supports the interpretation that the inter-anemometer disagreement, which can be up to 5% of the wind speed, is due to flow distortion. These insights motivate an empirical correction to the individual anemometer records and subsequent comparison with scatterometer estimates show good agreement.

Description: The North Atlantic (NA) basin-averaged sea surface temperature (NASST) is often used as an index to study climate variability in the NA sector. However, there is still some debate on what drives it. Based on observations and climate models, an analysis of the different influences on the NASST index and its low-pass filtered version, the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) index, is provided. In particular, the relationships of the two indices with some of its mechanistic drivers including the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) are investigated. In observations, the NASST index accounts for significant SST variability over the tropical and subpolar NA. The NASST index is shown to lump together SST variability originating from different mechanisms operating on different time scales. The AMO index emphasizes the subpolar SST variability. In the climate models, the SST-anomaly pattern associated with the NASST index is similar. The AMO index, however, only represents pronounced SST variability over the extratropical NA, and this variability is significantly linked to the AMOC. There is a sensitivity of this linkage to the cold NA SST bias observed in many climate models. Models suffering from a large cold bias exhibit a relatively weak linkage between the AMOC and AMO and vice versa. Finally, the basin-averaged SST in its unfiltered form, which has been used to question a strong influence of ocean dynamics on NA SST variability, mixes together multiple types of variability occurring on different time scales and therefore underemphasizes the role of ocean dynamics in the multidecadal variability of NA SSTs.

Description: MILAN was a multidisciplinary, international study examining how the diel variability of sea-surface microlayer biogeochemical properties potentially impacts ocean-atmosphere interaction, in order to improve our understanding of this globally important process. The sea-surface microlayer (SML) at the air-sea interface is 〈 1 mm deep but it is physically, chemically and biologically distinct from the underlying water and the atmosphere above. Wind-driven turbulence and solar radiation are important drivers of SML physical and biogeochemical properties. Given that the SML is involved in all ocean-atmosphere exchanges of mass and energy, its response to solar radiation, especially in relation to how it regulates the air-sea exchange of climate-relevant gases and aerosols, is surprisingly poorly characterised. MILAN (sea-surface MIcroLAyer at Night) was an international, multidisciplinary campaign designed to specifically address this issue. In spring 2017, we deployed diverse sampling platforms (research vessels, radio-controlled catamaran, free-drifting buoy) to study full diel cycles in the coastal North Sea SML and in underlying water, and installed a land-based aerosol sampler. We also carried out concurrent ex situ experiments using several microsensors, a laboratory gas exchange tank, a solar simulator, and a sea spray simulation chamber. In this paper we outline the diversity of approaches employed and some initial results obtained during MILAN. Our observations of diel SML variability, e.g. the influence of changing solar radiation on the quantity and quality of organic material, and diel changes in wind intensity primarily forcing air-sea CO2 exchange, underline the value and the need of multidisciplinary campaigns for integrating SML complexity into the context of air-sea interaction.

Description: Mesoscale eddies can be strengthened by the absorption of submesoscale eddies resulting from mixed-layer baroclinic instabilities. This is shown for mesoscale eddies in the Agulhas Current system by investigating the kinetic energy cascade with a spectral and a coarse-graining approach in two model simulations of the Agulhas region. One simulation resolves mixed-layer baroclinic instabilities and one does not. When mixed-layer baroclinic instabilities are included, the largest submesoscale near-surface fluxes occur in winter-time in regions of strong mesoscale activity for upscale as well as downscale directions. The forward cascade at the smallest resolved scales occurs mainly in frontogenetic regions in the upper 30 m of the water column. In the Agulhas ring path, the forward cascade changes to an inverse cascade at a typical scale of mixed-layer eddies (15 km). At the same scale, the largest sources of the upscale flux occur. After the winter, the maximum of the upscale flux shifts to larger scales. Depending on the region, the kinetic energy reaches the mesoscales in spring or early summer aligned with the maximum of mesoscale kinetic energy. This indicates the importance of submesoscale flows for the mesoscale seasonal cycle. A case study shows that the underlying process is the mesoscale absorption of mixed-layer eddies. When mixed-layer baroclinic instabilities are not included in the simulation, the open-ocean upscale cascade in the Agulhas ring path is almost absent. This contributes to a 20 %-reduction of surface kinetic energy at mesoscales larger than 100 km when submesoscale dynamics are not resolved by the model.

Description: The structure, transport, and seasonal variability of the West Greenland boundary current system near Cape Farewell are investigated using a high-resolution mooring array deployed from 2014 to 2018. The boundary current system is comprised of three components: the West Greenland Coastal Current, which advects cold and fresh Upper Polar Water (UPW); the West Greenland Current, which transports warm and salty Irminger Water (IW) along the upper slope and UPW at the surface; and the Deep Western Boundary Current, which advects dense overflow waters. Labrador Sea Water (LSW) is prevalent at the seaward side of the array within an offshore recirculation gyre and at the base of the West Greenland Current. The 4-yr mean transport of the full boundary current system is 31.1 ± 7.4 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s-1), with no clear seasonal signal. However, the individual water mass components exhibit seasonal cycles in hydrographic properties and transport. LSW penetrates the boundary current locally, through entrainment/mixing from the adjacent re-circulation gyre, and also enters the current upstream in the Irminger Sea. IW is modified through air–sea interaction during winter along the length of its trajectory around the Irminger Sea, which converts some of the water to LSW. This, together with the seasonal increase in LSW entering the current, results in an anticorrelation in transport between these two water masses. The seasonality in UPW transport can be explained by remote wind forcing and subsequent adjustment via coastal trapped waves. Our results provide the first quantitatively robust observational description of the boundary current in the eastern Labrador Sea.

Description: State of the climate in 2019

Description: A simple analytical model of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) coupled to sea ice is presented. It describes clear-sky cooling over sea ice during polar night in the presence of leads. The model solutions show that the sea ice concentration and wind speed have a strong impact on the thermal regime over sea ice. Leads cause both a warming of the ABL and an increase of stability over sea ice. The model describes a sharp ABL transition from a weakly stable coupled state to a strongly stable decoupled state when wind speed is decreasing. The threshold value of the transition wind speed is a function of sea ice concentration. The decoupled state is characterized by a large air–surface temperature difference over sea ice, which is further increased by leads. In the coupled regime, air and surface temperatures increase almost linearly with wind speed due to warming by leads and also slower cooling of the ABL. The cooling time scale shows a nonmonotonic dependency on wind speed, being lowest for the threshold value of wind speed and increasing for weak and strong winds. Theoretical solutions agree well with results of a more realistic single-column model and with observations performed at the three Russian “North Pole” drifting stations (NP-35, -37, and -39) and at the Surface Heat Budget of the Arctic Ocean ice camp. Both modeling results and observations show a strong implicit dependency of the net longwave radiative flux at the surface on wind speed.

Description: Proxy data and observations suggest that large tropical volcanic eruptions induce a poleward shift of the North Atlantic jet stream in boreal winter. However, there is far from universal agreement in models on this effect and its mechanism, and the possibilities of a corresponding jet shift in the Southern Hemisphere or the summer season have received little attention. Using a hierarchy of simplified atmospheric models, this study examines the impact of stratospheric aerosol on the extratropical circulation over the annual cycle. In particular, the models allow the separation of the dominant shortwave (surface cooling) and longwave (stratospheric warming) impacts of volcanic aerosol. It is found that stratospheric warming shifts the jet poleward in both summer and winter hemispheres. The experiments cannot definitively rule out the role of surface cooling, but provide no evidence that it shifts the jet poleward. Further study with simplified models demonstrates that the response to stratospheric warming is remarkably generic and does not depend critically on the boundary conditions (e.g., the planetary wave forcing) or the atmospheric physics (e.g., the treatment of radiative transfer and moist processes). It does, however, fundamentally involve both zonal-mean and eddy circulation feedbacks. The timescales, seasonality, and structure of the response provide further insight into the mechanism, as well as its connection to modes of intrinsic natural variability. These findings have implications for the interpretation of comprehensive model studies and for post-volcanic prediction

Description: To model tracer spreading in the ocean, Lagrangian simulations in an offline framework are a practical and efficient alternative to solving the advective–diffusive tracer equations online. Differences in both approaches raise the question of whether both methods are comparable. Lagrangian simulations usually use model output averaged in time, and trajectories are not subject to parameterized subgrid diffusion, which is included in the advection–diffusion equations of ocean models. Previous studies focused on diffusivity estimates in idealized models but could show that both methods yield similar results as long as the deformations-scale dynamics are resolved and a sufficient amount of Lagrangian particles is used. This study compares spreading of an Eulerian tracer simulated online and a cloud of Lagrangian particles simulated offline with velocities from the same ocean model. We use a global, eddy-resolving ocean model featuring 1/20° horizontal resolution in the Agulhas region around South Africa. Tracer and particles were released at one time step in the Cape Basin and below the mixed layer and integrated for 3 years. Large-scale diagnostics, like mean pathways of floats and tracer, are almost identical and 1D horizontal distributions show no significant differences. Differences in vertical distributions, seen in a reduced vertical spreading and downward displacement of particles, are due to the combined effect of unresolved subdaily variability of the vertical velocities and the spatial variation of vertical diffusivity. This, in turn, has a small impact on the horizontal spreading behavior. The estimates of eddy diffusivity from particles and tracer yield comparable results of about 4000 m2 s−1 in the Cape Basin.

Description: Satellite observations and output from a high-resolution ocean model are used to investigate how the Loop Current in the Gulf of Mexico affects the Gulf Stream transport through the Florida Straits. We find that the expansion (contraction) of the Loop Current leads to lower (higher) transports through the Straits of Florida. The associated surface velocity anomalies are coherent from the southwestern tip of Florida to Cape Hatteras. A simple continuity-based argument can be used to explain the link between the Loop Current and the downstream Gulf Stream transport: as the Loop Current lengthens (shortens) its path in the Gulf of Mexico, the flow out of the Gulf decreases (increases). Anomalies in the surface velocity field are first seen to the southwest of Florida and within 4 weeks propagate through the Florida Straits up to Cape Hatteras and into the Gulf Stream Extension. In both the observations and the model this propagation can be seen as pulses in the surface velocities. We estimate that the Loop Current variability can be linked to a variability of several Sverdrups (1Sv = 10(6) m(3) s(-1)) through the Florida Straits. The exact timing of the Loop Current variability is largely unpredictable beyond a few weeks and its variability is therefore likely a major contributor to the chaotic/intrinsic variability of the Gulf Stream. However, the time lag between the Loop Current and the flow downstream of the Gulf of Mexico means that if a lengthening/shortening of the Loop Current is observed this introduces some predictability in the downstream flow for a few weeks.

Description: The diffusive layering (DL) form of double-diffusive convection cools the Atlantic Water (AW) as it circulates around the Arctic Ocean. Large DL steps, with heights of homogeneous layers often greater than 10 m, have been found above the AW core in the Eurasian Basin (EB) of the eastern Arctic. Within these DL staircases, heat and salt fluxes are determined by the mechanisms for vertical transport through the high-gradient regions (HGRs) between the homogeneous layers. These HGRs can be thick (up to 5 m and more) and are frequently complex, being composed of multiple small steps or continuous stratification. Microstructure data collected in the EB in 2007 and 2008 are used to estimate heat fluxes through large steps in three ways: using the measured dissipation rate in the large homogeneous layers; utilizing empirical flux laws based on the density ratio and temperature step across HGRs after scaling to account for the presence of multiple small DL interfaces within each HGR; and averaging estimates of heat fluxes computed separately for individual small interfaces (as laminar conductive fluxes), small convective layers (via dissipation rates within small DL layers), and turbulent patches (using dissipation rate and buoyancy) within each HGR. Diapycnal heat fluxes through HGRs evaluated by each method agree with each other and range from ~2 to ~8 W m−2, with an average flux of ~3–4 W m−2. These large fluxes confirm a critical role for the DL instability in cooling and thickening the AW layer as it circulates around the eastern Arctic Ocean.

Description: Coastal trapped waves (CTWs) that propagate poleward along the southwest African shelf potentially leak energy from lower latitudes into the Benguela Upwelling System (BUS). Thus, in addition to local winds, these waves provide an important remote forcing mechanism for the upwelling region. The present study aims at elucidating the nature of CTWs in the northern BUS. To this end, we make use of multisite velocity observations from the Namibian shelf (18°, 20°, 23°S) and examine the alongshore velocity signal for signatures of CTWs by means of wavelet methods. We found that a substantial amount of energy is concentrated within a submonthly to subseasonal frequency band (10–50 days). Based on the coherence and phase spectra of the alongshelf currents, we provide evidence for a predominantly southward phase propagation and establish typical time and length scales of CTWs in the region. It turns out that their properties differ significantly within a few hundred kilometers along the coast. A comparison of the results with theoretical dispersion curves shows that this difference may be explained by variations in the bottom topography. Finally, we investigate the coupling of the alongshore currents with the coastal and equatorial wind stress and highlight regions of potential wave generation.

Description: The turbulent dissipation rate ɛ is a key parameter to many oceanographic processes. Recently gliders have been increasingly used as a carrier for microstructure sensors. Compared to conventional ship-based methods, glider-based microstructure observations allow for long duration measurements under adverse weather conditions, and at lower costs. The incident water velocity U is an input parameter for the calculation of the dissipation rate. Since U can not be measured using the standard glider sensor setup, the parameter is normally computed from a steady-state glider flight model. As ɛ scales with U2 or U4, depending whether it is computed from temperature or shear microstructure, flight model errors can introduce a significant bias. This study is the first to use measurements of in-situ glider flight, obtained with a profiling Doppler velocity log and an electromagnetic current meter, to test and calibrate a flight model, extended to include inertial terms. Compared to a previously suggested flight model, the calibrated model removes a bias of approximately 1 cm s−1 in the incident water velocity, which translates to roughly a factor of 1.2 in estimates of the dissipation rate. The results further indicate that 90% of the estimates of the dissipation rate from the calibrated model are within a factor of 1.1 and 1.2 for measurements derived from microstructure temperature sensors and shear probes, respectively. We further outline the range of applicability of the flight model.

Description: Oceanic eddies are an important component in preconditioning the central Labrador Sea (LS) for deep convection and in restratifying the convected water. This study investigates the different sources and impacts of Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) and its temporal variability in the LS with the help of a 52-year long hindcast simulation of a 1/20° ocean model. Irminger Rings (IR) are generated in the West Greenland Current (WGC) between 60 and 62°N, mainly affect preconditioning and limit the northward extent of the convection area. The IR exhibit a seasonal cycle and decadal variations linked to the WGC strength, varying with the circulation of the subpolar gyre. The mean and temporal variations of IR generation can be attributed to changes in deep ocean baroclinic and upper ocean barotropic instabilities at comparable magnitudes. The main source of EKE and restratification in the central LS are Convective Eddies (CE). They are generated by baroclinic instabilities near the bottom of the mixed layer during and after convection. The CE have a mid-depth core and reflect the hydrographic properties of the convected water mass with a distinct minimum in potential vorticity. Their seasonal to decadal variability is tightly connected to the local atmospheric forcing and the associated air-sea heat fluxes. A third class of eddies in the LS are the Boundary Current Eddies shed from the Labrador Current (LC). Since they are mostly confined to the vicinity of the LC, these eddies appear to exert only minor influence on preconditioning and restratification.

Description: The Eddy Kinetic Energy (EKE) associated with the Subtropical Countercurrent (STCC) in the western subtropical South Pacific is known to exhibit substantial seasonal and decadal variability. Using an eddy-permitting ocean general circulation model, which is able to reproduce the observed, salient features of the seasonal cycles of shear, stratification, baroclinic production and the associated EKE, we investigate the decadal changes of EKE. We show that the STCC region exhibits, uniquely among the subtropical gyres of the world’s oceans, significant, atmospherically forced, decadal EKE variability. The decadal variations are driven by changing vertical shear between the STCC in the upper 300 m and the South Equatorial Current below, predominantly caused by variations in STCC strength associated with a changing meridional density gradient. In the 1970s, an increased meridional density gradient results in EKE twice as large as in later decades in the model. Utilizing sensitivity experiments, decadal variations in the wind field are shown to be the essential driver. Local wind stress curl anomalies associated with the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO) lead to up- and downwelling of the thermocline, inducing strengthening or weakening of the STCC and the associated EKE. Additionally, remote wind stress curl anomalies in the eastern subtropical South Pacific, which are not related to the IPO, generate density anomalies that propagate westward as Rossby waves and can account for up to 30–40 % of the density anomalies in the investigated region.

Description: The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) describe the dominant part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical troposphere. Due to the strong connection of these patterns with surface climate, recent years have shown an increased interest and an increasing skill in forecasting them. However, it is unclear what the intrinsic limits of short-term predictability for the NAO and AO patterns are. This study compares the variability and predictability of both patterns, using a range of data and index computation methods for the daily NAO/AO indices. Small deviations from Gaussianity are found and characteristic decorrelation time scales of around one week. In the analysis of the Lyapunov spectrum it is found that predictability is not significantly different between the AO and NAO or between reanalysis products. Differences exist however between the indices based on EOF analysis, which exhibit predictability time scales around 12 - 16 days, and the station-based indices, exhibiting a longer predictability of 18 - 20 days. Both of these time scales indicate predictability beyond that currently obtained in ensemble prediction models for short-term predictability. Additional longer-term predictability for these patterns may be gained through local feedbacks and remote forcing mechanisms for particular atmospheric conditions.

Description: The formation of secondary ice in clouds, i.e. ice particles that are created at temperatures above the limit for homogeneous freezing without the direct involvement of a heterogeneous ice nucleus is one of the longest standing puzzles in cloud physics. Here we present comprehensive laboratory investigations on the formation of small ice particles upon the freezing of drizzle-sized cloud droplets levitated in an electrodynamic balance. Four different categories of secondary ice formation (bubble bursting, jetting, cracking, breakup) could be detected and their respective frequencies of occurrence as a function of temperature and droplet size are given. We find that bubble bursting occurs more often than droplet splitting. While we do not observe the shattering of droplets into many large fragments, we find that the average number of small secondary ice particles released during freezing is strongly droplet-size dependent and may well exceed unity for droplets larger than 300 μm in diameter. This leaves droplet fragmentation an important secondary ice process effective at temperatures around -10 °C in clouds where large drizzle droplets are present.

Description: Predicting tropical cyclone (TC) activity becomes more important every year while the understanding of what factors impact them continues to be complicated. El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the primary factors impacting the activities in both the Pacific and the Atlantic, but an extensive examination of the fluctuation in this system has yet to be studied in its entirety. This article analyzes the ENSO impacts on the Atlantic tropical cyclone activity during the assessed warm and cold years to show the dominant centennial-scale variation impact. This study looks to plausibly link this variation to the Southern Ocean centennial variability, which is rarely mentioned in any factors affecting the Atlantic tropical cyclone activity. This centennial variability could be used to enhance future work related to predicting tropical cyclones.

Description: Downward wave coupling (DWC) is an important process that characterizes the dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere via planetary wave reflection. A recent modeling study indicated that natural forcing factors, including sea-surface temperature variability and quasi-biennial oscillation, influence DWC and the associated surface impact in the Northern Hemisphere (NH). In light of this, we further investigate how DWC in the NH is affected by anthropogenic forcings, using a fully coupled chemistry-climate model CESM1 (WACCM). The results indicate that the occurrence of DWC is significantly suppressed in the future, starting later in the seasonal cycle, with more events concentrated in late winter (February-March). The future decrease in DWC events is associated with enhanced wave absorption in the stratosphere due to increased greenhouse gases. The enhanced wave absorption is manifest as more absorbing types of stratospheric sudden warmings, with more events concentrated in early winter. This early winter condition leads to a delay in the development of the upper stratospheric reflecting surface, resulting in a shift in the seasonal cycle of DWC towards late winter. The tropospheric responses to DWC events in the future exhibit different spatial patterns compared to those of the past. In the North Atlantic sector, DWC-induced circulation changes are characterized by a poleward shift and an eastward extension of the tropospheric jet, while in the North Pacific sector, the circulation changes are characterized by a weakening of the tropospheric jet. These responses are consistent with a change in the pattern of DWC-induced synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow interaction.

Description: Decadal variabilities in Indian Ocean subsurface ocean heat content (OHC; 50–300 m) since the 1950s are examined using ocean reanalyses. This study elaborates on how Pacific variability modulates the Indian Ocean on decadal time scales through both oceanic and atmospheric pathways. High correlations between OHC and thermocline depth variations across the entire Indian Ocean Basin suggest that OHC variability is primarily driven by thermocline fluctuations. The spatial pattern of the leading mode of decadal Indian Ocean OHC variability closely matches the regression pattern of OHC on the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), emphasizing the role of the Pacific Ocean in determining Indian Ocean OHC decadal variability. Further analyses identify different mechanisms by which the Pacific influences the eastern and western Indian Ocean. IPO-related anomalies from the Pacific propagate mainly through oceanic pathways in the Maritime Continent to impact the eastern Indian Ocean. By contrast, in the western Indian Ocean, the IPO induces wind-driven Ekman pumping in the central Indian Ocean via the atmospheric bridge, which in turn modifies conditions in the southwestern Indian Ocean via westward-propagating Rossby waves. To confirm this, a linear Rossby wave model is forced with wind stresses and eastern boundary conditions based on reanalyses. This linear model skillfully reproduces observed sea surface height anomalies and highlights both the oceanic connection in the eastern Indian Ocean and the role of wind-driven Ekman pumping in the west. These findings are also reproduced by OGCM hindcast experiments forced by interannual atmospheric boundary conditions applied only over the Pacific and Indian Oceans, respectively.

Description: Gap flows and the stable boundary layer were studied in northwest Greenland during the aircraft-based Investigation of Katabatic Winds and Polynyas during Summer (IKAPOS) experiment in June 2010. The measurements were performed using the research aircraft POLAR 5 of Alfred Wegener Institute (AWI; Bremerhaven). Besides navigational and basic meteorological instrumentation, the aircraft was equipped with radiation and surface temperature sensors and a turbulence measurement system. In the area of Smith Sound at the southern end of the Nares Strait, a stable, but fully turbulent, boundary layer with strong winds of up to 22 m s−1 was found during conditions of synoptically induced northerly winds through the Nares Strait. Strong surface inversions were present in the lowest 100–200 m. As a consequence of channeling effects, a well-pronounced low-level jet system was documented for each of four flights. The wind maximum is located at 20–50-km distance from the exit of Smith Sound. The 3D boundary layer structure past this gap is studied in detail. The channeling process is consistent with gap flow theory. The flow through the gap and over the surrounding mountains leads to the lowering of isotropic surfaces and the acceleration of the flow. The orographically channeled flow through Smith Sound plays a key role for the formation of the North Water polynya being the largest ice-producing polynya in the Arctic.

Description: This study analyzes the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to different CO2 concentrations and two ice sheet configurations in simulations with the coupled climate model MPI-ESM. With preindustrial (PI) ice sheets, there are two different AMOC states within the studied CO2 range: one state with a strong and deep upper overturning cell at high CO2 concentrations and one state with a weak and shallow upper cell at low CO2 concentrations. Changes in AMOC variability with decreasing CO2 indicate two stability thresholds. The strong state is stable above the first threshold near 217 ppm, and the weak state is stable below the second threshold near 190 ppm. Between the two thresholds, both states are marginally unstable, and the AMOC oscillates between them on millennial time scales. The weak AMOC state is stable when Antarctic Bottom Water becomes dense and salty enough to replace North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the deep North Atlantic and when the density gain over the North Atlantic becomes too weak to sustain continuous NADW formation. With Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheets, the density gain over the North Atlantic and the northward salt transport are enhanced with respect to the PI ice sheet case. This enables active NADW formation and a strong AMOC for the entire range of studied CO2 concentrations. The AMOC variability indicates that the simulated AMOC is far away from a stability threshold with LGM ice sheets. The nonlinear relationship among AMOC, CO2, and prescribed ice sheets provides an explanation for the large intermodel spread of AMOC states found in previous coupled LGM simulations.

Description: Major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) are extreme events during boreal winter, which not only impact tropospheric weather up to three months but also can influence oceanic variability through wind stress and heat flux anomalies. In the North Atlantic region, SSWs have the potential to modulate deep convection in the Labrador Sea and thereby the strength of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. The impact of SSWs on the Northern Hemisphere surface climate is investigated in two coupled climate models: a stratosphere-resolving (high top) and a non-stratosphere-resolving (low top) model. In both configurations, a robust link between SSWs and a negative NAO is detected, which leads to shallower-than-normal North Atlantic mixed layer depth. The frequency of SSWs and the persistence of this link is better captured in the high-top model. Significant differences occur over the Pacific region, where an unrealistically persistent Aleutian low is observed in the low-top configuration. An overrepresentation of SSWs during El Nino conditions in the low-top model is the main cause for this artifact. Our results underline the importance of a proper representation of the stratosphere in a coupled climate model for a consistent surface response in both the atmosphere and the ocean, which, among others, may have implications for oceanic deep convection in the subpolar North Atlantic.

Description: Benthic storms are important for both the energy budget of the ocean and for sediment resuspension and transport. Using 30 years of output from a high-resolution model of the North Atlantic, it is found that most of the benthic storms in the model occur near the western boundary in association with the Gulf Stream and the North Atlantic Current, in regions that are generally co-located with the peak near-bottom eddy kinetic energy. A common feature are meander troughs in the near-surface jets that are accompanied by deep low pressure anomalies spinning up deep cyclones with near-bottom velocities of up to more than 0.5 m/s. A case study of one of these events shows the importance of both baroclinic and barotropic instability of the jet, with energy being extracted from the jet in the upstream part of the meander trough and partly returned to the jet in the downstream part of the meander trough. This motivates examining the 30-year time mean of the energy transfer from the (annual mean) background flow into the eddy kinetic energy. This quantity is shown to be co-located well with the region in which benthic storms and large increases in deep cyclonic relative vorticity occur most frequently, suggesting an important role for mixed barotropic-baroclinic instability driven cyclogenesis in generating benthic storms throughout the model simulation. Regions of largest energy transfer and most frequent benthic storms are found to be the Gulf Stream west of the New England Seamounts and the North Atlantic Current near Flemish Cap.

Description: This study analyzes the response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to different CO2 concentrations and two ice sheet configurations in simulations with the coupled climate model MPI-ESM. With preindustrial (PI) ice sheets, there are two different AMOC states within the studied CO2 range: one state with a strong and deep upper overturning cell at high CO2 concentrations and one state with a weak and shallow upper cell at low CO2 concentrations. Changes in AMOC variability with decreasing CO2 indicate two stability thresholds. The strong state is stable above the first threshold near 217 ppm, and the weak state is stable below the second threshold near 190 ppm. Between the two thresholds, both states are marginally unstable, and the AMOC oscillates between them on millennial time scales. The weak AMOC state is stable when Antarctic Bottom Water becomes dense and salty enough to replace North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) in the deep North Atlantic and when the density gain over the North Atlantic becomes too weak to sustain continuous NADW formation. With Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) ice sheets, the density gain over the North Atlantic and the northward salt transport are enhanced with respect to the PI ice sheet case. This enables active NADW formation and a strong AMOC for the entire range of studied CO2 concentrations. The AMOC variability indicates that the simulated AMOC is far away from a stability threshold with LGM ice sheets. The nonlinear relationship among AMOC, CO2, and prescribed ice sheets provides an explanation for the large intermodel spread of AMOC states found in previous coupled LGM simulations.

Description: The eastern boundary region off Angola encompasses a highly productive ecosystem important for the food security of the coastal population. The fish-stock distribution, however, undergoes large variability on intraseasonal, interannual, and longer time scales. These fluctuations are partly associated with large-scale warm anomalies that are often forced remotely from the equatorial Atlantic and propagate southward, reaching the Benguela upwelling off Namibia. Such warm events, named Benguela Niños, occurred in 1995 and in 2011. Here we present results from an underexplored extensive in situ dataset that was analyzed in the framework of a capacity-strengthening effort. The dataset was acquired within the Nansen Programme executed by the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations and funded by the Norwegian government. It consists of hydrographic and velocity data from the Angolan continental margin acquired biannually during the main downwelling and upwelling seasons over more than 20 years. The mean seasonal changes of the Angola Current from 6° to 17°S are presented. During austral summer the southward Angola Current is concentrated in the upper 150 m. It strengthens from north to south, reaching a velocity maximum just north of the Angola Benguela Front. During austral winter the Angola Current is weaker, but deeper reaching. While the southward strengthening of the Angola Current can be related to the wind forcing, its seasonal variability is most likely explained by coastally trapped waves. On interannual time scales, the hydrographic data reveal remarkable variability in subsurface upper-ocean heat content. In particular, the 2011 Benguela Niño was preceded by a strong subsurface warming of about 2 years’ duration.

Description: Besides the zonal flow that dominates the seasonal and long-term variability in the equatorial Atlantic, energetic intraseasonal meridional velocity fluctuations are observed in large parts of the water column. We use 15 years of partly full-depth velocity data from an equatorial mooring at 23°W to investigate intraseasonal variability and specifically the downward propagation of intraseasonal energy from the near-surface into the deep ocean. Between 20 and 50 m, intraseasonal variability at 23°W peaks at periods between 30 and 40 days. It is associated with westward-propagating tropical instability waves, which undergo an annual intensification in August. At deeper levels down to about 2000 m considerable intraseasonal energy is still observed. A frequency–vertical mode decomposition reveals that meridional velocity fluctuations are more energetic than the zonal ones for periods 〈 50 days. The energy peak at 30–40 days and at vertical modes 2–5 excludes equatorial Rossby waves and suggests Yanai waves to be associated with the observed intraseasonal energy. Yanai waves that are considered to be generated by tropical instability waves propagate their energy from the near-surface west of 23°W downward and eastward to eventually reach the mooring location. The distribution of intraseasonal energy at the mooring position depends largely on the dominant frequency and the time, depth, and longitude of excitation, while the dominant vertical mode of the Yanai waves plays only a minor role. Observations also show the presence of weaker intraseasonal variability at 23°W below 2000 m that cannot be associated with tropical instability waves.

Description: Multi-year moored velocity observations of the Angola Current near 11°S reveal a weak southward mean flow superimposed by substantial intraseasonal to seasonal variability, including annual and semiannual cycles with distinct baroclinic structures. In the equatorial Atlantic these oscillations are associated with basin-mode resonances of the fourth and second baroclinic modes, respectively. Here, the role of basin-mode resonance and local forcing for the Angola Current seasonality are investigated. A suite of linear shallow-water models for the tropical Atlantic is employed, each model representing a single baroclinic mode forced at a specific period. The annually and semiannually oscillating forcing is given by 1) an idealized zonally uniform zonal forcing restricted to the equatorial band corresponding to a remote equatorial forcing or 2) realistic, spatially-varying Fourier components of wind stress data that include local forcing off Angola, particularly alongshore winds. Model-computed modal amplitudes are scaled to match moored velocity observations from the equatorial Atlantic. The observed annual cycle of alongshore velocity at 11°S is well reproduced by the remote equatorial forcing. Including local forcing slightly improves the agreement between observed and simulated semiannual oscillations at 11°S compared to the purely equatorial forcing. However, the model-computed semiannual cycle lacks amplitude at mid-depth. This could be the result of either underestimating the strength of the second equatorial basin-mode of the fourth baroclinic mode or other processes not accounted for in the shallow-water models. Overall, our findings underline the importance of large-scale linear equatorial wave dynamics for the seasonal variability of the boundary circulation off Angola.

Description: The Lagrangian analysis of sets of particles advected with the flow fields of ocean models are used to study connectivity, i.e. exchange pathways, timescales and volume transports, between distinct oceanic regions. One important factor influencing the dispersion of fluid particles and hence connectivity is the Lagrangian eddy diffusivity, which quantifies the influence of turbulent processes on the rate of particle dispersal. Due to spatial and temporal discretization, turbulence is not fully resolved in modelled velocities, and the concept of eddy diffusivity is used to parametrize the impact of unresolved processes. However, the relations between observational- and model-based Lagrangian eddy diffusivity estimates as well as eddy parameterizations are not clear. This study presents an analysis of the spatially variable near-surface lateral eddy diffusivity estimates obtained from Lagrangian trajectories simulated with 5-day mean velocities from an eddy-resolving ocean model (INALT01) for the Agulhas system. INALT01 features diffusive regimes for dynamically different regions, some of which exhibit strong suppression of eddy mixing by mean flow, and is consistent with the pattern and magnitude of drifter-based eddy diffusivity estimates. Using monthly-mean velocities decreases the estimated diffusivities less than eddy kinetic energy, supporting the idea that large and persistent eddy features dominate eddy diffusivities. For a non-eddying ocean model (ORCA05), Lagrangian eddy diffusivities are greatly reduced, in particular when the Gent and McWilliams parameterization of mesoscale eddies is employed.

Description: Arctic sea ice area (SIA) during late summer and early fall decreased substantially over the last four decades, and its decline accelerated beginning in the early 2000s. Statistical analyses of observations show that enhanced poleward moisture transport from the North Pacific to the Arctic Ocean contributed to the accelerated SIA decrease during the most recent period. As a consequence, specific humidity in the Arctic Pacific sector significantly increased along with an increase of downward longwave radiation beginning in 2002, which led to a significant acceleration in the decline of SIA in the Arctic Pacific sector. The resulting sea ice loss led to increased evaporation in the Arctic Ocean, resulting in a further increase of the specific humidity in mid-to-late fall, thus acting as a positive feedback to the sea ice loss. The overall set of processes is also found in a long control simulation of a coupled climate model.

Description: In the present study, the influence of some major tropical modes of variability on northern hemisphere regional blocking frequency variability during boreal winter is investigated. Reanalysis data and an ensemble experiment with the ECMWF model using relaxation towards the ERA-Interim reanalysis data inside the tropics are used. The tropical modes under investigation are El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) and the upper tropospheric equatorial zonal-mean zonal wind . An early (late) MJO phase refers to the part of the MJO cycle when enhanced (suppressed) precipitation occurs over the western Indian Ocean and suppressed (enhanced) precipitation occurs over the Maritime Continent and the western tropical Pacific. Over the North Pacific sector, it is found that enhanced (suppressed) high latitude blocking occurs in association with El Niño (La Niña) events, late (early) MJO phases and westerly (easterly) . Over central to southern Europe and the east Atlantic, it is found that late MJO phases, as well as a suppressed MJO are leading to enhanced blocking frequency. Furthermore, early (late) MJO phases are followed by blocking anomalies over the western North Atlantic region, similar to those associated with a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation. Over northern Europe, the easterly (westerly) phase of is associated with enhanced (suppressed) blocking. These results are largely confirmed by both the reanalysis and the model experiment.

Description: The Indian Ocean has sustained robust surface warming in recent decades, but the role of multi-decadal variability remains unclear. Using ocean model hindcasts, characteristics of low-frequency Indian Ocean temperature variations are explored. Simulated upper-ocean temperature changes across the Indian Ocean in the hindcast are consistent with those recorded in observational products and ocean reanalyses. Indian Ocean temperatures exhibit strong warming trends since the 1950s limited to the surface and south of 30°S, while extensive subsurface cooling occurs over much of the tropical Indian Ocean. Previous work focused on diagnosing causes of these long-term trends in the Indian Ocean over the second half of the 20th Century. Instead, the temporal evolution of Indian Ocean subsurface heat content is shown here to reveal distinct multi-decadal variations associated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the long-term trends are thus interpreted to result from aliasing of the low-frequency variability. Transmission of the multi-decadal signal occurs via an oceanic pathway through the Indonesian Throughflow and is manifest across the Indian Ocean centered along 12°S as westward propagating Rossby waves modulating thermocline and subsurface heat content variations. Resulting low-frequency changes in the eastern Indian Ocean thermocline depth are associated with decadal variations in the frequency of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events, with positive IOD events unusually common in the 1960s and 1990s with a relatively shallow thermocline. In contrast, the deeper thermocline depth in the 1970s and 1980s is associated with frequent negative IOD and rare positive IOD events. Changes in Pacific wind forcing in recent decades and associated rapid increases in Indian Ocean subsurface heat content can thus affect the basin’s leading mode of variability, with implications for regional climate and vulnerable societies in surrounding countries.

Description: The 13th European Polar Low Workshop was organized by the European Polar Low Working Group (www.uni-trier.de/index.php?id=20308)and gathered scientists from nine countries focusing on polar mesocyclones in both hemispheres and other mesoscale weather phenomena such as katabatic winds, tip jets, boundary layer fronts, cold air outbreaks, and weather extremes in polar regions. Topics included experimental, climatological, theoretical, modeling, and remote sensing studies. The aim was to bring together scientists and forecasters to present their latest work and recent findings on these topics and to encourage discussions on improving forecasting and understanding of these phenomena.

Description: The regional climate model COSMOin Climate Limited-AreaMode (COSMO-CLM or CCLM) is used with a high resolution of 15km for the entire Arctic for all winters 2002/03–2014/15. The simulations show a high spatial and temporal variability of the recent 2-m air temperature increase in the Arctic. The maximum warming occurs north of Novaya Zemlya in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea between March 2003 and 2012 and is responsible for up to a 208C increase. Land-based observations confirm the increase but do not cover the maximum regions that are located over the ocean and sea ice.Also, the 30-km version of theArctic SystemReanalysis (ASR) is used to verify the CCLM for the overlapping time period 2002/03–2011/12. The differences between CCLM and ASR 2-m air temperatures vary slightly within 18C for the ocean and sea ice area. Thus,ASR captures the extreme warming as well. The monthly 2-m air temperatures of observations and ERA-Interim data show a large variability for the winters 1979–2016. Nevertheless, the air temperature rise since the beginning of the twenty-first century is up to 8 times higher than in the decades before. The sea ice decrease is identified as the likely reason for the warming. The vertical temperature profiles show that the warming has a maximum near the surface, but a 0.58Cyr21 increase is found up to 2 km. CCLM, ASR, and also the coarser resolved ERA-Interim data show that February and March are the months with the highest 2-m air temperature increases, averaged over the ocean and sea ice area north of 708N; for CCLM the warming amounts to an average of almost 58C for 2002/03–2011/12.

Description: The ratio of global mean surface air temperature change to cumulative CO2 emissions, referred to as transient climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions (TCRE), has been shown to be approximately constant on centennial time scales. The mechanisms behind this constancy are not well understood, but previous studies suggest that compensating effects of ocean heat and carbon fluxes, which are governed by the same ocean mixing processes, could be one cause for this approximate constancy. This hypothesis is investigated by forcing different versions of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model, which differ in the ocean mixing parameterization, with an idealized scenario of 1% annually increasing atmospheric CO2 until quadrupling of the preindustrial CO2 concentration and constant concentration thereafter. The relationship between surface air warming and cumulative emissions remains close to linear, but the TCRE varies between model versions, spanning the range of 1.2°–2.1°C EgC−1 at the time of CO2 doubling. For all model versions, the TCRE is not constant over time while atmospheric CO2 concentrations increase. It is constant after atmospheric CO2 stabilizes at 1120 ppm, because of compensating changes in temperature sensitivity (temperature change per unit radiative forcing) and cumulative airborne fraction. The TCRE remains approximately constant over time even if temperature sensitivity, determined by ocean heat flux, and cumulative airborne fraction, determined by ocean carbon flux, are taken from different model versions with different ocean mixing settings. This can partially be explained with temperature sensitivity and cumulative airborne fraction following similar trajectories, which suggests ocean heat and carbon fluxes scale approximately linearly with changes in vertical mixing.

Description: The Weddell Sea polynya is a large opening in the open-ocean sea ice cover associated with intense deep convection in the ocean. A necessary condition to form and maintain a polynya is the presence of a strong subsurface heat reservoir. This study investigates the processes that control the stratification and hence the buildup of the subsurface heat reservoir in the Weddell Sea. To do so, a climate model run for 200 years under preindustrial forcing with two eddying resolutions in the ocean (0.25° CM2.5 and 0.10° CM2.6) is investigated. Over the course of the simulation, CM2.6 develops two polynyas in the Weddell Sea, while CM2.5 exhibits quasi-continuous deep convection but no polynyas, exemplifying that deep convection is not a sufficient condition for a polynya to occur. CM2.5 features a weaker subsurface heat reservoir than CM2.6 owing to weak stratification associated with episodes of gravitational instability and enhanced vertical mixing of heat, resulting in an erosion of the reservoir. In contrast, in CM2.6, the water column is more stably stratified, allowing the subsurface heat reservoir to build up. The enhanced stratification in CM2.6 arises from its refined horizontal grid spacing and resolution of topography, which allows, in particular, a better representation of the restratifying effect by transient mesoscale eddies and of the overflows of dense waters along the continental slope.

Description: Seasonal variability in pathways of warm water masses toward the Kangerdlugssuaq Fjord-Glacier system (KF/KG), southeast Greenland, is investigated by backtracking Lagrangian particles seeded at the fjord mouth in a high-resolution regional ocean model simulation in the ice-free and the ice-covered seasons. The waters at KF are a mixture of Atlantic-origin water advected from the Irminger Basin (FF for Faxaflói), the deep waters from the Denmark Strait and the waters from the Arctic Ocean, both represented by the Kögur section (KO). Below 200m depth, the warm water is a mixture of FF and KO water masses, and is warmer in winter than in summer. We find that seasonal differences in pathways double the fraction of FF particles in winter, causing the seasonal warming and salinification. Seasonal temperature variations at the upstream sections (FF and KO) have a negligible impact on temperature variations near the fjord. Successful monitoring of heat flux to the fjord therefore needs to take place close to the fjord, and cannot be inferred from upstream conditions.

Description: By performing two sets of high-resolution atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) experiments, we find that the atmospheric response to a sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly in the extratropical North Pacific is sensitive to decadal variations of the background SST on which the SST anomaly is superimposed. The response in the first set of experiments, in which the SST anomaly is superimposed on the observed daily SST of 1981-1990, strongly differs from the response in the second experiment, in which the same SST anomaly is superimposed on the observed daily SST of 1991-2000. The atmospheric response over the North Pacific during 1981-1990 is eddy-mediated, equivalent barotropic and concentrated in the east. In contrast, the atmospheric response during 1991-2000 is weaker and strongest in the west. The results are discussed in terms of Rossby wave dynamics, with the proposed primary wave source switching from baroclinic eddy vorticity forcing over the eastern North Pacific in 1981-1990 to mean flow divergence over the western North Pacific in 1991-2000. The wave source changes are linked to the decadal reduction of daily SST variability over the eastern North Pacific and strengthening of the Oyashio Extension front over the western North Pacific. Thus, both daily and frontal aspects of the background SST variability in determining the atmospheric response to extratropical North Pacific SST anomalies are emphasized by our AGCM experiments.

Description: Warm water of open ocean origin on the continental shelf of the Amundsen and Bellingshausen Seas causes the highest basal melt rates reported for Antarctic ice shelves with severe consequences for the ice shelf/ice sheet dynamics. Ice shelves fringing the broad continental shelf in the Weddell and Ross Seas melt at rates orders of magnitude smaller. However, simulations using coupled ice–ocean models forced with the atmospheric output of the HadCM3 SRES-A1B scenario run (CO2 concentration in the atmosphere reaches 700 ppmv by the year 2100 and stays at that level for an additional 100 years) show that the circulation in the southern Weddell Sea changes during the twenty-first century. Derivatives of Circumpolar Deep Water are directed southward underneath the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf, warming the cavity and dramatically increasing basal melting. To find out whether the open ocean will always continue to power the melting, the authors extend their simulations, applying twentieth-century atmospheric forcing, both alone and together with prescribed basal mass flux at the end of (or during) the SRES-A1B scenario run. The results identify a tipping point in the southern Weddell Sea: once warm water flushes the ice shelf cavity a positive meltwater feedback enhances the shelf circulation and the onshore transport of open ocean heat. The process is irreversible with a recurrence to twentieth-century atmospheric forcing and can only be halted through prescribing a return to twentieth-century basal melt rates. This finding might have strong implications for the stability of the Antarctic ice sheet.

Description: Kretzschmar et al., in a comment in 2017, use the spread in the output of aerosol–climate models to argue that the models refute the hypothesis (presented in a paper by Stevens in 2015) that for the mid-twentieth-century warming to be consistent with observations, then the present-day aerosol forcing, must be less negative than −1 W m−2. The main point of contention is the nature of the relationship between global SO2 emissions and In contrast to the concave (log-linear) relationship used by Stevens and in earlier studies, whereby becomes progressively less sensitive to SO2 emissions, some models suggest a convex relationship, which would imply a less negative lower bound. The model that best exemplifies this difference, and that is most clearly in conflict with the hypothesis of Stevens, does so because of an implausible aerosol response to the initial rise in anthropogenic aerosol precursor emissions in East and South Asia—already in 1975 this model’s clear-sky reflectance from anthropogenic aerosol over the North Pacific exceeds present-day estimates of the clear-sky reflectance by the total aerosol. The authors perform experiments using a new (observationally constrained) climatology of anthropogenic aerosols to further show that the effects of changing patterns of aerosol and aerosol precursor emissions during the late twentieth century have, for the same global emissions, relatively little effect on These findings suggest that the behavior Kretzschmar et al. identify as being in conflict with the lower bound in Stevens arises from an implausible relationship between SO2 emissions and and thus provides little basis for revising this lower bound.

Description: This article investigates the dynamics and temporal evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) in a coupled climate model. The model contains a correction to the North Atlantic flow field to improve the path of the North Atlantic Current, thereby alleviating the surface cold bias, a common problem with climate models, and offering a unique opportunity to study the AMV in a model. Changes in greenhouse gas forcing or aerosol loading are not considered. A striking feature of our results is the contrast between the western and eastern sides of the subpolar gyre in the model. On the western side, heat supply from the ocean plays a major role, with most of this heat being given up to the atmosphere in the warm phase, largely symmetrically about the time of the AMV maximum. By contrast, on the eastern side, the ocean gains heat from the atmosphere, with relatively little role for ocean heat supply in the years before the AMV maximum. Thereafter, the balance changes with heat now being removed from the eastern side by the ocean leading to a reducing ocean heat content, behavior we associate with the establishment of an intergyre gyre at the time of the AMV maximum. In the warm phase, melting sea-ice leads to a freshening of surface waters northeast of Greenland which travel southward into the Irminger and Labrador Sea, shutting down convection and terminating the AMV warm phase.

Description: For decades oceanographers have understood the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to be primarily driven by changes in the production of deep-water formation in the subpolar and subarctic North Atlantic. Indeed, current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of an AMOC slowdown in the twenty-first century based on climate models are attributed to the inhibition of deep convection in the North Atlantic. However, observational evidence for this linkage has been elusive: there has been no clear demonstration of AMOC variability in response to changes in deep-water formation. The motivation for understanding this linkage is compelling, since the overturning circulation has been shown to sequester heat and anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean. Furthermore, AMOC variability is expected to impact this sequestration as well as have consequences for regional and global climates through its effect on the poleward transport of warm water. Motivated by the need for a mechanistic understanding of the AMOC, an international community has assembled an observing system, Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program (OSNAP), to provide a continuous record of the transbasin fluxes of heat, mass, and freshwater, and to link that record to convective activity and water mass transformation at high latitudes. OSNAP, in conjunction with the Rapid Climate Change–Meridional Overturning Circulation and Heatflux Array (RAPID–MOCHA) at 26°N and other observational elements, will provide a comprehensive measure of the three-dimensional AMOC and an understanding of what drives its variability. The OSNAP observing system was fully deployed in the summer of 2014, and the first OSNAP data products are expected in the fall of 2017.

Description: Well-known problems trouble coupled general circulation models of the eastern Atlantic and Pacific Ocean basins. Model climates are significantly more symmetric about the equator than is observed. Model sea surface temperatures are biased warm south and southeast of the equator, and the atmosphere is too rainy within a band south of the equator. Near-coastal eastern equatorial SSTs are too warm, producing a zonal SST gradient in the Atlantic opposite in sign to that observed. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Eastern Tropical Ocean Synthesis Working Group (WG) has pursued an updated assessment of coupled model SST biases, focusing on the surface energy balance components, on regional error sources from clouds, deep convection, winds, and ocean eddies; on the sensitivity to model resolution; and on remote impacts. Motivated by the assessment, the WG makes the following recommendations: 1) encourage identification of the specific parameterizations contributing to the biases in individual models, as these can be model dependent; 2) restrict multimodel intercomparisons to specific processes; 3) encourage development of high-resolution coupled models with a concurrent emphasis on parameterization development of finer-scale ocean and atmosphere features, including low clouds; 4) encourage further availability of all surface flux components from buoys, for longer continuous time periods, in persistently cloudy regions; and 5) focus on the eastern basin coastal oceanic upwelling regions, where further opportunities for observational–modeling synergism exist.

Description: Downward wave coupling occurs when an upward propagating planetary wave from the troposphere decelerates the flow in the upper stratosphere, and forms a downward reflecting surface that redirects waves back to the troposphere. To test this mechanism and potential factors influencing the downward wave coupling, three 145-year sensitivity simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model (CESM-WACCM), a state-of-the-art high-top chemistry-climate model, are analyzed. The results show that the QBO and SST variability significantly impact downward wave coupling. Without the QBO, the occurrence of downward wave coupling is significantly suppressed. In contrast, stronger and more persistent downward wave coupling occurs when SST variability is excluded. The above influence on the occurrence of downward wave coupling is mostly due to a direct influence of the QBO and SST variability on stratospheric planetary wave source and propagation. The strengths of the tropospheric circulation and surface responses to a given downward wave coupling event, however, behave differently. The surface anomaly is significantly weaker (stronger) in the experiment with fixed SSTs (without QBO), even though the statistical signal of downward coupling is strongest (weakest) in this experiment. This apparent mismatch is explained by the differences in the strength of the synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow feedback and the possible contribution of SST anomalies in the North Atlantic during DWC event. The weaker synoptic-scale eddy-mean flow feedback, and the absence of the positive NAO-related SST-tripole pattern in the fixed SST experiment are consistent with a weaker tropospheric response in this experiment. The results highlight the importance of synoptic-scale eddies in setting the tropospheric response to downward wave coupling.

Description: There is evidence that the strengthened stratospheric westerlies arising from the Antarctic ozone hole–induced cooling cause a polar mesospheric warming and a subsequent cooling in the lower thermosphere. While previous studies focus on the role of nonresolved (gravity) wave drag filtering, here the role of resolved (planetary) wave drag and radiative forcing on the Antarctic mesosphere and lower thermosphere (MLT) is explored in detail. Using simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth System Model, version 1 (Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model) [CESM1(WACCM)], it is found that in late spring and early summer the anomalous polar mesospheric warming induced by easterly nonresolved wave drag is dampened by anomalous dynamical cooling induced by westerly resolved wave drag. This resolved wave drag is attributed to planetary-scale wave (k = 1–3) activity, which is generated in situ as a result of increased instability of the summer mesospheric easterly jet induced by the ozone hole. On the other hand, the anomalous cooling in the polar lower thermosphere induced by westerly nonresolved wave drag is enhanced by anomalous dynamical cooling due to westerly resolved wave drag. In addition, radiative effects from increased greenhouse gases during the ozone hole period contribute partially to the cooling in the polar lower thermosphere. The polar MLT temperature response to the Antarctic ozone hole is, through thermal wind balance, accompanied by the downward migration of anomalous zonal-mean wind from the lower thermosphere to the stratopause. The results highlight that a proper accounting of both dynamical and radiative effects is required in order to correctly attribute the causes of the polar MLT response to the Antarctic ozone hole.

Description: The transport of dissolved oxygen (O2) from the surface ocean into the interior is a critical process sustaining aerobic life in mesopelagic ecosystems, but its rates and sensitivity to climate variations are poorly understood. Using a circulation model constrained to historical variability by assimilation of observations, we show that the North Pacific thermocline effectively takes up O2 primarily by expanding the area through which O2-rich mixed layer water is detrained into the thermocline. The outcrop area during the critical winter season varies in concert with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). When the central North Pacific Ocean is in a cold phase, the winter outcrop window for the Central Mode Water class (CMW; a neutral density range of γ = 25.6 - 26.6) expands southward allowing more O2-rich surface water to enter the ocean’s interior. An increase in volume flux of water to the CMW density class is partly compensated by a reduced supply to the shallower densities of Subtropical Mode Water (γ = 24.0 - 25.5). The thermocline has become better oxygenated since the 1980s due partly to strong O2 uptake. Positive O2 anomalies appear first near the outcrop and subsequently downstream in the subtropical gyre. In contrast to the O2 variations within the ventilated thermocline, observed O2 in Intermediate Water (density range of γ = 26.7 – 27.2) shows a declining trend over the past half-century, a trend not explained by the open ocean water mass formation rate.

Description: This study investigates the interaction of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in the troposphere separately for the North Pacific and North Atlantic region. Three 145-year model simulations with NCAR’s Community Earth Sytem Model (CESM-WACCM) are analyzed where only natural and no anthropogenic forcings are considered. These long simulations allow us to obtain statistically reliable results from an exceptional large number of cases for each combination of the QBO (westerly and easterly) and ENSO phases (El Niño and La Niña). Two different analysis methods were applied to investigate where nonlinearity might play a role in QBO-ENSO interactions. The analyses reveal that the stratospheric equatorial QBO anomalies extend down to the troposphere over the North Pacific during Northern hemisphere winter only during La Niña and not during El Niño events. The Aleutian low is deepened during QBO westerly (QBOW) as compared to QBO easterly (QBOE) conditions, and the North Pacific subtropical jet is shifted northward during La Niña. In the North Atlantic, the interaction of QBOW with La Niña conditions (QBOE with El Niño) results in a positive (negative) North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern. For both regions, nonlinear interactions between the QBO and ENSO might play a role. The results provide potential to enhance the skill of tropospheric seasonal predictions in the North Atlantic and North Pacific region.

Description: The Equatorial Deep Jets (EDJs) are an ubiquitous feature of the equatorial oceans; in the Atlantic Ocean, they are the dominant mode of interannual variability of the zonal flow at intermediate depth. On the basis of more than 10 years of moored observations of zonal velocity at 23°W, the vertically propagating EDJs are best described as superimposed oscillations of the 13th to the 23th baroclinic modes with a dominant oscillation period for all modes of 1650 days. This period is close to the resonance period of the respective gravest equatorial basin mode for the dominant vertical modes 16 and 17. It is argued that since the equatorial basin mode is composed of linear equatorial waves, a linear reduced gravity model can be employed for each baroclinic mode, driven by spatially homogeneous zonal forcing oscillating with the EDJ period. The fit of the model solutions to observations at 23°W yields a basin wide reconstruction of the EDJs and the associated vertical structure of their forcing. From the resulting vertical profile of mean power input and vertical energy flux on the equator, it follows that the EDJs are locally maintained over a considerable depth range, from 500-2500 m, with the maximum power input and vertical energy flux at 1300 m. The strong dissipation closely ties the apparent vertical propagation of energy to the vertical distribution of power input and, together with the EDJs’ prevailing downward phase propagation, require the phase of the forcing of the EDJs to propagate downward.

Description: A German national project coordinates research on improving a global decadal climate prediction system for future operational use. MiKlip, an eight-year German national research project on decadal climate prediction, is organized around a global prediction system comprising the climate model MPI-ESM together with an initialization procedure and a model evaluation system. This paper summarizes the lessons learned from MiKlip so far; some are purely scientific, others concern strategies and structures of research that targets future operational use. Three prediction-system generations have been constructed, characterized by alternative initialization strategies; the later generations show a marked improvement in hindcast skill for surface temperature. Hindcast skill is also identified for multi-year-mean European summer surface temperatures, extra-tropical cyclone tracks, the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, and ocean carbon uptake, among others. Regionalization maintains or slightly enhances the skill in European surface temperature inherited from the global model and also displays hindcast skill for wind-energy output. A new volcano code package permits rapid modification of the predictions in response to a future eruption. MiKlip has demonstrated the efficacy of subjecting a single global prediction system to a major research effort. The benefits of this strategy include the rapid cycling through the prediction-system generations, the development of a sophisticated evaluation package usable by all MiKlip researchers, and regional applications of the global predictions. Open research questions include the optimal balance between model resolution and ensemble size, the appropriate method for constructing a prediction ensemble, and the decision between full-field and anomaly initialization. Operational use of the MiKlip system is targeted for the end of the current decade, with a recommended generational cycle of two to three years.

Description: Latent heat fluxes (LHF) play an essential role in the global energy budget and are thus important for understanding the climate system. Satellite-based remote sensing permits a large-scale determination of LHF, which, amongst others, are based on near-surface specific humidity qa. However, the qa random retrieval error (Etot) remains unknown. Here, a novel approach is presented to quantify the error contributions to pixel-level qa of the Hamburg Ocean Atmosphere Parameters and Fluxes from Satellite (HOAPS, version 3.2) dataset. The methodology makes use of multiple triple collocation (MTC) analysis between 1995-2008 over the global ice-free oceans. Apart from satellite records, these datasets include selected ship records extracted from the Seewetteramt Hamburg (SWA) archive and the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (ICOADS), serving as the in-situ ground reference. The MTC approach permits the derivation of Etot as the sum of model uncertainty EM and sensor noise EN, while random uncertainties due to in-situ measurement errors (Eins) and collocation (EC) are isolated concurrently. Results show an Etot average of 1.1 ± 0.3 g kg-1, whereas the mean EC (Eins) is in the order of 0.5 ± 0.1 g kg-1 (0.5 ± 0.3 g kg-1). Regional analyses indicate a maximum of Etot exceeding 1.5 g kg-1 within humidity regimes of 12-17 g kg-1, associated with the single-parameter, multilinear qa retrieval applied in HOAPS. Multi-dimensional bias analysis reveals that global maxima are located off the Arabian Peninsula.

Description: Seasonal variability of the tropical Atlantic circulation is dominated by the annual cycle, but semi-annual variability is also pronounced, despite weak forcing at that period. Here we use multi-year, full-depth velocity measurements from the central equatorial Atlantic to analyze the vertical structure of annual and semi-annual variations of zonal velocity. A baroclinic modal decomposition finds that the annual cycle is dominated by the 4th mode and the semi-annual cycle by the 2nd mode. Similar local behavior is found in a high-resolution general circulation model. This simulation reveals that the annual and semi-annual cycles of the respective dominant baroclinic modes are associated with characteristic basin-wide structures. Using an idealized linear reduced-gravity model to simulate the dynamics of individual baroclinic modes, it is shown that the observed circulation variability can be explained by resonant equatorial basin modes. Corollary simulations of the reduced-gravity model with varying basin geometry (i.e. square basin versus realistic coastlines) or forcing (i.e. spatially uniform versus spatially variable wind) show a structural robustness of the simulated basin modes. A main focus of this study is the seasonal variability of the Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) as identified in recent observational studies. Main characteristics of the observed EUC including seasonal variability of transport, core depth, and maximum core velocity can be explained by the linear superposition of the dominant equatorial basin modes as obtained from the reduced-gravity model.

Description: In Ammassalik, in southeast Greenland, downslope winds can reach hurricane intensity and represent a hazard for the local population and environment. They advect cold air down the ice sheet and over the Irminger Sea, where they drive large ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes over an important ocean convection region. Earlier studies have found them to be associated with a strong katabatic acceleration over the steep coastal slopes, flow convergence inside the valley of Ammassalik, and—in one instance—mountain wave breaking. Yet, for the general occurrence of strong downslope wind events, the importance of mesoscale processes is largely unknown. Here, two wind events—one weak and one strong—are simulated with the atmospheric Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with different model and topography resolutions, ranging from 1.67 to 60 km. For both events, but especially for the strong one, it is found that lower resolutions underestimate the wind speed because they misrepresent the steepness of the topography and do not account for the underlying wave dynamics. If a 5-km model instead of a 60-km model resolution in Ammassalik is used, the flow associated with the strong wind event is faster by up to 20 m s−1. The effects extend far downstream over the Irminger Sea, resulting in a diverging spatial distribution and temporal evolution of the heat fluxes. Local differences in the heat fluxes amount to 20%, with potential implications for ocean convection.

Description: We perform eddy-resolving and high-vertical-resolution numerical simulations of the circulation in an idealized equatorial Atlantic Ocean in order to explore the formation of the deep equatorial circulation (DEC) in this basin. Unlike in previous studies, the deep equatorial intraseasonal variability (DEIV) that is believed to be the source of the DEC is generated internally by instabilities of the upper ocean currents. Two main simulations are discussed: Solution 1, configured with a rectangular basin and with wind forcing that is zonally and temporally uniform; and Solution 2, with realistic coastlines and with an annual cycle of wind forcing varying zonally. Somewhat surprisingly, Solution 1 produces the more realistic DEC: The large-vertical-scale currents (Equatorial Intermediate Currents or EICs) are found over a large zonal portion of the basin, and the small-vertical-scale equatorial currents (Equatorial Deep Jets or EDJs) form low-frequency, quasi-resonant, baroclinic equatorial basin modes with phase propagating mostly downward, consistent with observations. We demonstrate that both types of currents arise from the rectification of DEIV, consistent with previous theories. We also find that the EDJs contribute to maintaining the EICs, suggesting that the nonlinear energy transfer is more complex than previously thought. In Solution 2, the DEC is unrealistically weak and less spatially coherent than in the first simulation probably because of its weaker DEIV. Using intermediate solutions, we find that the main reason for this weaker DEIV is the use of realistic coastlines in Solution 2. It remains to be determined, what needs to be modified or included to obtain a realistic DEC in the more realistic configuration.

Description: A yet unexplained drift of (some) oxygen optodes during storage/transport and thus significant deviations from factory/laboratory calibrations have been a major handicap for autonomous oxygen observations. Optode drift appears to be systematic and is predominantly a slope effect due to reduced oxygen sensitivity. A small contribution comes from a reduced luminophore lifetime, which causes a small positive offset. A reliable in situ reference is essential to correct such a drift. Traditionally, this called for a ship-based reference cast, which poses some challenges for opportunistic float deployments. This study presents an easily implemented alternative using near-surface/in-air measurements of an Aanderaa optode on a 10-cm stalk and compares it to the more traditional approaches (factory, laboratory, and in situ deployment calibration). In-air samples show a systematic bias depending on the water saturation, which is likely caused by occasional submersions of the standard-height stalk optode. Linear regression of measured in-air supersaturation against in-water supersaturation (using ancillary meteorological data to define the saturation level) robustly removes this bias and thus provides a precise (0.2%) and accurate (1%) in situ correction that is available throughout the entire instrument’s lifetime.

Description: Predictability on seasonal time scales over the North Atlantic–Europe region is assessed using a seasonal prediction system based on an initialized version of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM). For this region, two of the dominant predictors on seasonal time scales are El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) events. Multiple studies have shown a potential for improved North Atlantic predictability for either predictor. Their respective influences are however difficult to disentangle, since the stratosphere is itself impacted by ENSO. Both El Niño and SSW events correspond to a negative signature of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which has a major influence on European weather. This study explores the impact on Europe by separating the stratospheric pathway of the El Niño teleconnection. In the seasonal prediction system, the evolution of El Niño events is well captured for lead times of up to 6 months, and stratospheric variability is reproduced with a realistic frequency of SSW events. The model reproduces the El Niño teleconnection through the stratosphere, involving a deepened Aleutian low connected to a warm anomaly in the northern winter stratosphere. The stratospheric anomaly signal then propagates downward into the troposphere through the winter season. Predictability of 500-hPa geopotential height over Europe at lead times of up to 4 months is shown to be increased only for El Niño events that exhibit SSW events, and it is shown that the characteristic negative NAO signal is only obtained for winters also containing major SSW events for both the model and the reanalysis data.

Description: Classical theory concerning theEliassen–Palmrelation is extended in this study to allowfor a unified treatment of midlatitude inertia–gravity waves (MIGWs), midlatitude Rossby waves (MRWs), and equatorial waves (EQWs). A conservation equation for what the authors call the impulse-bolus (IB) pseudomomentum is useful, because it is applicable to ageostrophic waves, and the associated three-dimensional flux is parallel to the direction of the group velocity of MRWs. The equation has previously been derived in an isentropic coordinate system or a shallow-water model. The authors make an explicit comparison of prognostic equations for the IB pseudomomentum vector and the classical energy-based (CE) pseudomomentum vector, assuming inviscid linear waves in a sufficiently weak mean flow, to provide a basis for the former quantity to be used in an Eulerian time-mean (EM) framework. The authors investigate what makes the three-dimensional fluxes in the IB and CE pseudomomentum equations look in different directions. It is found that the two fluxes are linked by a gauge transformation, previously unmentioned, associated with a divergence-form wave-induced pressure L. The quantity L vanishes for MIGWs and becomes nonzero for MRWs and EQWs, and it may be estimated using the virial theorem. Concerning the effect of waves on the mean flow, L represents an additional effect in the pressure gradient term of both (the three-dimensional versions of) the transformed EM momentum equations and the merged form of the EMmomentumequations, the latter of which is associated with the nonacceleration theorem.

Description: [in “State of the Climate in 2014” : Special Supplement to the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 96, No. 7, July 2015]

Description: Atmospheric deposition contributes potentially significant amounts of the nutrients iron, nitrogen and phosphorus (via mineral dust and anthropogenic aerosols) to the oligotrophic tropical North Atlantic Ocean. Transport pathways, deposition processes and source strengths contributing to this atmospheric flux are all highly variable in space and time. Atmospheric sampling was conducted during 28 research cruises through the Eastern Tropical North Atlantic (ETNA) over a 12 year period and a substantial dataset of measured concentrations of nutrients and trace metals in aerosol and rainfall over the region was acquired. This database was used to quantify (on a spatial- and seasonal-basis) the atmospheric input of ammonium, nitrate, soluble phosphorus and soluble and total iron, aluminium and manganese to the ETNA. The magnitude of atmospheric input varies strongly across the region, with high rainfall rates associated with the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone contributing to high wet deposition fluxes in the south, particularly for soluble species. Dry deposition fluxes of species associated with mineral dust exhibited strong seasonality, with highest fluxes associated with winter-time low-level transport of Saharan dust. Overall (wet plus dry) atmospheric inputs of soluble and total trace metals were used to estimate their soluble fractions. These also varied with season and were generally lower in the dry north than in the wet south. The ratio of ammonium plus nitrate to soluble iron in deposition to the ETNA was lower than the N:Fe requirement for algal growth in all cases, indicating the importance of the atmosphere as a source of excess iron.

Description: We investigated the effect of hydrostatic pressure of up to 6000 dbar on Aanderaa and Sea-Bird oxygen optodes both in the laboratory and in the field. The overall pressure response is a reduction in the O2 reading by 3 – 4 % per 1000 dbar which is closely linear with pressure and increases with temperature. Closer inspection reveals two superimposed processes with opposite effect: an O2-independent pressure response on the luminophore which increases optode O2 readings and an O2-dependent change in luminescence quenching which decreases optode O2 readings. The latter process dominates and is mainly due to a shift in the equilibrium between sensing membrane and sea water under elevated pressures. If only the dominant O2-dependent process is considered, Aanderaa and Sea-Bird optodes differ in their pressure response. Compensation of the O2-independent process, however, yields a uniform O2 dependence for Aanderaa optodes with standard foil and fast-response foil as well as Sea-Bird optodes. A new scheme to calculate optode O2 from raw data is proposed to account for the two processes. The overall uncertainty of the optode pressure correction amounts to 0.3 % per 1000 dbar, mainly due to variability between sensors.

Description: The upper tropical Atlantic Ocean has markedly warmed since the 1960s. It has been shown that this warming was not due to local heat fluxes, and that the trade winds that drive the coastal and equatorial upwelling have intensified rather than weakened. Remote forcing might thus have played an important role. Here model experiments are used to investigate the contribution from an increased inflow of warm Indian Ocean water through Agulhas leakage. A high-resolution hindcast experiment with interannually varying forcing for the time period 1948 to 2007, in which Agulhas leakage increases by about 45% from the 1960s to the early 2000s, reproduces the observed warming trend. To tease out the role of Agulhas leakage, a sensitivity experiment designed to only increase Agulhas leakage is used. Compared to a control simulation it shows a pronounced warming in the upper tropical Atlantic Ocean. A Lagrangian trajectory analysis confirms that a significant portion of Agulhas leakage water reaches the upper 300m of the tropical Atlantic Ocean within two decades, and that the tropical Atlantic warming in the sensitivity experiment is mainly due to water of Agulhas origin. Therefore, it is suggested that the increased trade winds since the 1960s favor upwelling of warmer subsurface waters, which in parts originate from the Agulhas, leading to higher SSTs in the tropics

Description: Variations in the global tropospheric zonal mean zonal wind ([U]) during boreal winter are investigated using Rotated Empirical Orthogonal Functions applied to monthly means. The first two modes correspond to the Northern and Southern Annular Mode and modes 3 and 4 represent variability in the tropics. One is related to El Niño Southern Oscillation and the other has variability that is highly correlated with the time series of [U] at 150 hPa between 5°N and 5°S ([U150]E) and is related to activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. The extratropical response to [U150]E is investigated using linear regressions of 500 hPa geopotential height onto the [U150]E time series. We make use of reanalysis data and of the ensemble mean output from a relaxation experiment using the European Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasts model in which the tropical atmosphere is relaxed towards reanalysis data. The regression analysis reveals that a shift of the Aleutian low and a wave train across the North Atlantic are associated with [U150]E. We find that the subtropical waveguides and the link between the North Pacific and North Atlantic are stronger during the easterly phase of [U150]E. The wave train over the North Atlantic is associated with Rossby wave sources over the subtropical North Pacific and North America. Finally, we show that a linear combination of both [U150]E and the Quasi Biennial Oscillation in the lower stratosphere can explain the circulation anomalies of the anomalously cold European winter of 1962/63 when both were in an extreme easterly phase.

Description: To investigate the influence of atmospheric model resolution on the representation of daily precipitation extremes, ensemble simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM5 at different horizontal (T213 to T31) and vertical (L31 to L19) resolutions and forced with observed sea surface temperatures and sea ice concentrations have been carried out for 01/1982 - 09/2010. All results have been compared with the highest resolution, which has been validated against observations. Resolution affects both the representation of physical processes and the averaging of precipitation across grid boxes. The latter, in particular, smoothes out localized extreme events. These effects have been disentangled by averaging precipitation simulated at the highest resolution to the corresponding coarser grid. Extremes are represented by seasonal maxima, modeled by the generalized extreme value distribution. Effects of averaging and representation of physical processes vary with region and season. In the tropical summer hemisphere, extreme precipitation is reduced by up to 30% due to the averaging effect, and a further 65% owing to a coarser representation of physical processes. Towards mid- to high latitudes, the latter effect reduces to 20%; in the winter hemisphere it vanishes towards the poles. A strong drop is found between T106 and T63 in the convection dominated tropics. At the lowest resolution, northern hemisphere winter precipitation extremes, mainly caused by large scale weather systems, are in general represented reasonably well. Coarser vertical resolution causes an equatorward shift of maximum extreme precipitation in the tropics. The impact of vertical resolution on mean precipitation is less pronounced; for horizontal resolution it is negligible.