ALBERT

Description: This book offers an up-to-date review of our current understanding of climate change in the North Sea and adjacent areas, as well as its impact on ecosystems and socio-economic sectors. It provides a detailed assessment of climate change based on published scientific work compiled by independent international experts from climate-related disciplines such as oceanography, atmospheric sciences, marine and terrestrial ecology, using a regional evaluation and review process similar to that of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It provides a comprehensive overview of all aspects of our changing climate, discussing a wide range of topics including past, current and future climate change, and climate-related changes in marine, terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems. It also explores the impact of climate change on socio-economic sectors such as fisheries, agriculture, coastal zone management, coastal protection, urban climate, recreation/tourism, offshore activities/energy, and air pollution.

Description: Phreatic eruptions, although posing a serious threat to people in crater proximity, are often underestimated and have been comparatively understudied. The detailed eruption catalogue for Ruapehu Volcano (New Zealand) provides an exceptional opportunity to study the statistics of recurring phreatic explosions at a crater lake volcano. We performed a statistical analysis on this phreatic eruption database, which suggests that phreatic events at Ruapehu do not follow a Poisson process. Instead they tend to cluster, which is possibly linked to an increased heat flow during periods of a more shallow-seated magma column. Larger explosions are more likely to follow shortly after smaller events, as opposed to longer periods of quiescence. The absolute probability for a phreatic explosion to occur at Ruapehu within the next month is about 10%, when averaging over the last 70 years of recording. However, the frequency of phreatic explosions is significantly higher than the background level in years prior to magmatic episodes. Combining clast ejection simulations with a Bayesian event tree tool (PyBetVH) we perform a probabilistic assessment of the hazard due to ballistic ejecta in the summit area of Ruapehu, which is frequently visited by hikers. Resulting hazard maps show that the absolute probability for the summit to be affected by ballistics within the next month is up to 6%. The hazard is especially high on the northern lakeshore, where there is a mountain refuge. Our results contribute to the local hazard assessment as well as the general perception of hazards due to steam-driven explosions.

Description: For mid-latitude Rossby waves (RWs) in the atmosphere, the expression for the energy flux for use in a model diagnosis, and without relying on a Fourier analysis or a ray theory, has previously been derived using quasi-geostrophic equations and is singular at the equator. By investigating the analytical solution of both equatorial and mid-latitude waves, the authors derive an exact universal expression for the energy flux which is able to indicate the direction of the group velocity at all latitudes for linear shallow water waves. This is achieved by introducing a streamfunction as given by the inversion equation of Ertel’s potential vorticity, a novel aspect for considering the energy flux. For ease of diagnosis from a model, an approximate version of the universal expression is explored and illustrated for a forced/dissipative equatorial basin mode simulated by a single-layer oceanic model that includes both mid-latitude RWs and equatorial waves. Equatorial Kelvin Waves (KWs) propagate eastward along the equator, are partially redirected poleward as coastal KWs at the eastern boundary of the basin, and then shed mid-latitude RWs that propagate westward into the basin interior. The connection of the equatorial and coastal waveguides has been successfully illustrated by the approximate expression of the group-velocity-based energy flux of the present study. This will allow for tropical-extratropical interactions in oceanic and atmospheric model outputs to be diagnosed in terms of an energy cycle in a future study.

Description: Volcanic ash has long been recognized in marine sediment, and given the prevalence of oceanic and continental arc volcanism around the globe in regard to widespread transport of ash, its presence is nearly ubiquitous. However, the presence/absence of very fine-grained ash material, and identification of its composition in particular, is challenging given its broad classification as an “aluminosilicate” component in sediment. Given this challenge, many studies of ash have focused on discrete layers (that is, layers of ash that are of millimeter-to-centimeter or greater thickness, and their respective glass shards) found in sequences at a variety of locations and timescales and how to link their presence with a number of Earth processes. The ash that has been mixed into the bulk sediment, known as dispersed ash, has been relatively unstudied, yet represents a large fraction of the total ash in a given sequence. The application of a combined geochemical and statistical technique has allowed identification of this dispersed ash as part of the original ash contribution to the sediment. In this paper, we summarize the development of these geochemical/statistical techniques and provide case studies from the quantification of dispersed ash in the Caribbean Sea, equatorial Pacific Ocean, and northwest Pacific Ocean. These geochemical studies (and their sedimentological precursors of smear slides) collectively demonstrate that local and regional arc-related ash can be an important component of sedimentary sequences throughout large regions of the ocean.

Description: This paper presents an overview of the main advances in the Key Questions identified by the Task Group ‘What is the Solar Influence on Climate’ by the SCOSTEP CAWSES-II science program. We go through different aspects of solar forcing from solar irradiance, including total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar spectral irradiance (SSI), to energetic particle forcing, including energetic particle precipitation (EPP) and cosmic rays (CR). Besides discussing the main advances in the timeframe 2009 to 2013, we also illustrate the proposed mechanism for climate variability for the different solar variability sources listed above. The key questions are as follows: What is the importance of spectral variations to solar influences on climate? What is the effect of energetic particle forcing on the whole atmosphere and what are the implications for climate? How well do models reproduce and predict solar irradiance and energetic particle influences on the atmosphere and climate?

Description: Background: In computed tomography (CT) quality assurance, alignment of image quality phantoms is crucial for quantitative and reproducible evaluation and may be improved by alignment correction. Our goal was to develop an alignment correction algorithm to facilitate geological sampling of sediment cores taken from a cold-water coral mount. Methods: An alignment correction algorithm was developed and tested with a CT acquisition at 120 kVp and 150 mAs of an image quality phantom. Random translation (maximum 15 mm) and rotation (maximum 2.86°) were applied and ground-truth was compared to parameters determined by alignment correction. Furthermore, mean densities were evaluated in four regions of interest (ROIs) placed in the phantom low-contrast section, comparing values before and after correction to ground truth. This process was repeated 1000 times. After validation, alignment correction was applied to CT acquisitions (140 kVp, 570 mAs) of sediment core sections up to 1 m in length, and sagittal reconstructions were calculated for sampling planning. Results: In the phantom, average absolute differences between applied and detected parameters after alignment correction were 0.01 ± 0.06 mm (mean ± standard deviation) along the x-axis, 0.11 ± 0.08 mm along the y-axis, 0.15 ± 0.07° around the x-axis, and 0.02 ± 0.02° around the y-axis, respectively. For ROI analysis, differences in densities were 63.12 ± 30.57, 31.38 ± 32.10, 18.27 ± 35.57, and 9.59 ± 26.37 HU before alignment correction and 1.22 ± 1.40, 0.76 ± 0.9, 0.45 ± 0.86, and 0.36 ± 0.48 HU after alignment correction, respectively. For sediment core segments, average absolute detected parameters were 3.93 ± 2.89 mm, 7.21 ± 2.37 mm, 0.37 ± 0.33°, and 0.21 ± 0.22°, respectively. Conclusions: The alignment correction algorithm was successfully evaluated in the phantom and allowed a correct alignment of sediment core segments, thus aiding in sampling planning. Application to other tasks, like image quality analysis, seems possible.