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  • Articles  (6,038)
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  • Springer  (6,038)
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  • 1
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    A computable general equilibrium assessment of the impact of illegal immigration on the Greek economy (1999)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 12 (1999), S. 155-182 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Immigration ; Greece ; labour markets ; applied general equilibrium ; JEL classification: J61 ; D58 ; F22
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Recent years have witnessed a large inflow of illegal immigrants into Greece. Past surveys have examined the extent and nature of this immigration, but have not analysed the impacts on the economy. This paper presents a theoretical and empirical analysis of the impact of illegal immigration on the economy of the small open type, like that of Greece. The theoretical analysis uses a small stylised model to show that there is no unequivocal case for illegal immigration to lead to declines in the real wages of unskilled labour and increases in the real wages of skilled. Empirical analysis using a recently constructed applied general equilibrium model for Greece, adapted to the purpose in hand, shows that the inflow of illegal immigrants has resulted in declines of the real disposable incomes of two classes of households among the fifteen modelled, namely those headed by an unskilled person, that are poor and middle income. All other households gain. The ones who lose, however, make up about 37% of the Greek population. The distributional effects are moderated, however, when rigidities in the labour market are simulated.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050095
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  • 2
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Editorial (1999)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 12 (1999), S. 193-195 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050096
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  • 3
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Duration dependence and heterogeneity in French youth unemployment durations (1999)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 12 (1999), S. 273-285 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J6 ; Key words: Unemployment ; stigma ; screening policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper investigates the degree to which the individual exit rate out of unemployment for young job seekers changes as a function of the elapsed unemployment duration. We use a nonparametric estimation method for population data on outflows from different duration classes. The method also provides estimates of the amount of unobserved heterogeneity in these data. We explicitly take into account that individual exit rates are affected by the business cycle. The method is applied to population data on young French unemployed job seekers. The results are used for policy recommendations.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050099
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  • 4
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The impact of local labour markets on investment in further education: Evidence from the England and Wales youth cohort studies (1999)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 12 (1999), S. 287-312 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J24 ; I21 ; Key words: Human capital ; further education ; local labour markets
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The paper focuses on the individual's choice of activity on completion of compulsory schooling – to remain in full-time education or to seek employment – and the factors influencing this decision. Information from the England and Wales Youth Cohort Studies, coupled with labour market data, is used to estimate of logit model of choice and assess the role played by social and market factors. The results show that labour market conditions play an influential role in determining outcomes, particularly in the case of young males with weaker academic qualifications. Consistent with the time-series evidence, we find that participation rates in further education for both males and females are positively related to the unemployment rate in the local labour market, the effects being greater at times of economic recession when unemployment rates are rising.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050100
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  • 5
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An empirical analysis of the welfare magnet debate using the NLSY (1999)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 12 (1999), S. 391-409 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: I38 ; Key words: Interstate migration ; welfare ; poverty
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper examines the extent to which differences in welfare generosity across states leads to interstate migration. Using microdata from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY) between 1979 and 1992, we employ a quasi-experimental design that utilizes the categorical eligibility of the welfare system. The pattern of cross-state moves among poor single women with children, who are likely to be eligible for benefits is compared to the pattern among other poor households. We find little evidence indicating that welfare-induced migration is a widespread phenomenon.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050105
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  • 6
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    An analysis of reproductive behaviour in Canada: Results from an intertemporal optimizing model (1999)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 12 (1999), S. 451-461 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: C24 ; C25 ; J13 ; Key words: Fertility ; count models ; generalized Poisson distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Results based on a sample of Canadian households challenge the findings of most studies which show significant negative effects of schooling on the fertility of women under the age of 45. This is due to the application of methods to an optimization model which distinguish between those households which have completed their reproductive behaviour from those which have not. Completion status and the desired number of children are used to infer characteristics of the optimal programme which are then employed to derive a likelihood function. Traditional demographic methods have so far not fully utilized the distinction between incomplete and completed households in sample surveys. These methods also lead to the conclusion that completed fertility had increased from its all time low in the nineteen seventies.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050108
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  • 7
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The socioeconomic consequences of young women's childbearing: Reconciling disparate evidence (1999)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 12 (1999), S. 547-565 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J13 ; Key words: Fertility ; siblings models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Recent studies have begun to examine rigorously the links between early childbearing and subsequent socioeconomic status. Prominent in this literature has been a set of analyses that have used sibling fixed effects models to control for omitted variables bias. These studies report that the siblings difference procedure leads to smaller estimates of the effects of teen fertility than does standard regression analysis. While it is well known that the siblings fixed effects procedure makes strong assumptions regarding the type of omitted variables and is not necessarily robust to alternative assumptions, the assumptions of the procedure have not been explicitly examined. This paper uses 1979–1992 data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth to compare estimates of the income and education consequences of teenage and young adult fertility from standard regression and siblings fixed effects models with estimates from more general, alternative siblings models.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050113
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  • 8
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Banking on fewer children: Financial intermediation, fertility and economic development (1999)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 12 (1999), S. 567-590 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: E44 ; J13 ; O16 ; Key words: Financial intermediation ; fertility ; economic development
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper shows that financial intermediation can influence fertility and labor allocation decisions by raising market wages. The increase in wages induces some households to abandon “traditional” labor intensive methods of production managed at the household level and supply labor to “modern” sector firms. Since it is optimal for households in the modern sector to have fewer children, the labor allocation decision leads to lower national fertility. A panel VAR using financial intermediation, fertility and industrial employment share data in 87 countries is estimated. The empirical results show that the data are consistent with the theoretical predictions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050114
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  • 9
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Kuznets Prize for James R. Walker (2000)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 1-2 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050118
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  • 10
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Transitions from employment among young Norwegian workers (2000)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 21-34 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J64, J21 ; Key words: Competing risk, youth employment, youth unemployment
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. In a large representative sample of young Norwegian workers, we estimate gross transitions to unemployment, education, and other exits in a multinomial logit. In line with received literature, we find that individuals with high education, experience, and income have significantly lower probabilities of job exits. While female education rates have increased to surpass those of males, female labour market outcomes are still more responsive to family related background characteristics as compared with the outcomes for males.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050120
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  • 11
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Returns to returning (2000)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 57-79 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J61, J24, F22 ; Key words: Return migration, earnings, self-selection
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. We examine the labor market performance of return migrants using the Hungarian Household Panel Survey. Two distinct selection issues are considered in the estimation of the earnings equation; we implement a natural method using MLE. The result that there is a “premium” to work experience abroad for women is robust across the models we considered. For men, the return to working abroad is not generally significant.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050123
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  • 12
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    The gender gap in wages in Russia from 1992 to 1995 (2000)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 353-386 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J16, J31, P23 ; Key words: Wage inequality, gender differences, Russian transition
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper examines the gender gap in wages in Russia from 1992 to 1995. It uses data on prime aged men and women from the Russia Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) and focuses on those living in urban areas. Differences in hours of work appear to explain about one half of the gender differential, but there is still a large differential in average hourly wages between men and women. Observable differences in characteristics between men and women explain almost none of the differential or the changes through time.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050142
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  • 13
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Education funding and regional convergence (2000)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 403-424 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: O41 ; F22 ; Key words: Altruism ; education ; growth ; convergence ; capital mobility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The aim of this paper is to discuss the process of regional convergence within the framework of an overlapping generations model in which the engine of growth is the accumulation of human capital. In particular, we consider different education funding systems and compare their performance in terms of growth rates and pace of convergence between two heterogeneous regions. The analysis suggests that the choice of a particular education system incorporates a possible trade-off between long run growth rate and short run convergence. In such choice, the initial capital stock and the extent of regional human capital discrepancy appear as central variables.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050144
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  • 14
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Stephen P. Jenkins (2000)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 527-527 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050150
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  • 15
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    How much did immigrant “quality” decline in late nineteenth century America? (2000)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 509-525 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J15 ; J31 ; J61 ; N11 ; Key words: United States immigration history
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Early twentieth century observers argued that recent American immigrants were inferior, and in particular less skilled, than the old. I estimate wage equations for 1909 allowing for different effects by nationality and for different characteristics on arrival. I then apply the estimated wage differentials to the immigrant composition to measure the effect of changing composition on immigrant earnings. Finally I ask how immigrant earning power changed relative to that of native Americans. I conclude that immigrant “quality” in terms of earnings did decline due to shifting composition but these effects are very small compared with those reported in studies of the post-second World War period.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050149
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  • 16
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Occupational risks, social insurance and investments in education (2000)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 425-441 
    Details
    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: H21 ; H42 ; I28 ; Key words: Disability pensions ; time consistency ; education policy
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. A link between social insurance and education policy is explored. Due to moral hazard full insurance against disability is not feasible. When high- and low-risk individuals can be identified second-best social insurance system entails cross-subsidies from the low-risk group to the high-risk group. Implementation of this second-best insurance however distorts the human capital investment decisions when education qualifies for a low risk job. Therefore, the second-best social insurance together with an education subsidy is a welfare improving policy. An education policy also has the role of establishing dynamic consistency of the government's policy.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050145
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  • 17
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Hunger and migration in a rural-traditional area in the nineteenth century (2000)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 465-483 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: J61 ; N33 ; R23 ; Key words: Migration ; nineteenth century ; The Netherlands
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The factors that influenced migration decisions in a nineteenth century rural-traditional area of the Netherlands are assessed. This is done in a micro-setting. Applying a new data set with individual characteristics of both migrants and non-migrants a logit-model is estimated. The analysis supports the revisionist and relatively positive picture of the standard of living in pre-modern rural-traditional areas. Instead of hunger driving the masses away from these areas, it seems to have tied rationally acting people to a socio-economic system that contained buffer mechanisms to cope with short run stresses.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050147
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  • 18
    Electronic Resource
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    Modelling household income dynamics (2000)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 13 (2000), S. 529-567 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: JEL classification: C23, C41, D31, I32 ; Key words: Income dynamics, poverty dynamics, income distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper is about income and poverty dynamics and their socioeconomic correlates. The first half of the paper aims to establish some of the salient facts for Britain, applying the pioneering methods of Bane and Ellwood (1986). Important for poverty dynamics are changes in labour earnings from persons other than the household head, changes in non-labour income (including benefits), and changes in household composition, in addition to changes in the heads' labour earnings. The second half of the paper is a review and critique of the multivariate modelling frameworks which might be used to explain and forecast these salient facts for Britain or elsewhere.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050151
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  • 19
    Electronic Resource
    Electronic Resource
    Utilitarian pension and retirement policies under population ageing (1989)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 2 (1989), S. 73-78 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Under population ageing some adjustment of pension and retirement policies will usually be required. This paper considers the issue within a simple utilitarian model, for alternative types of pension finance. When specific adjustments to population ageing are necessary, changes in the retirement age are preferred to changes in pensions or contributions.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00599181
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  • 20
    Electronic Resource
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    An economic approach to fertility in Britain since 1860 (1989)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 2 (1989), S. 121-138 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper utilises a dynamic economic approach to examine movements in fertility in Britain since 1860. The analysis and results indicate that fertility has responded positively to changes in incomes. However, this positive effect has been more than offset by the increase in the opportunity cost of female time which has followed closely the education attainment of women.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00522405
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  • 21
    Electronic Resource
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    Population growth, age structure, and age-specific productivity (1989)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 2 (1989), S. 189-210 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract Motivated by empirical evidence that fluctuations in age structure affect relative wages across age groups, this paper asks whether there is a steady-state age distribution that maximizes the lifetime wages of a representative worker. The paper proves the surprising result that in a pure labor economy with any constant returns technology, a uniform age distribution minimizes lifetime wages. Skewed age distributions, generated by either positive or negative population growth rates, generate unambiguously higher lifetime wages than a stationary population, in spite of possible reductions in per capita output in every period. The presence of non-labor factors complicates, but does not necessarily reverse, this result. The paper relates the beneficial effects of higher rates of population growth on lifetime wages in a pure labor economy with imperfect substitutability across age groups to the benefits of population growth that appear in overlapping-generation consumption loan models with intergenerational transfers.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00177323
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  • 22
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    Call for papers (1989)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 2 (1989), S. 235-235 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00177326
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  • 23
    Electronic Resource
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    International factor mobility and production technology (1989)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 2 (1989), S. 281-299 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The present paper systematically investigates the pattern and effect of international factor mobility caused by international differences of production technology in an endogenous-population-growth and overlapping-generations model. We show here that if the autarkic steady state in each country is characterized by under-investment relative to the Golden Rule, international labour migration will take place to the country with a more capital-saving or a neutrally superior technology, and then the capital-labour ratio and the demand for children per family in that country will be lower. On the other hand, international capital will move to the country with a more labour-saving or a neutrally superior technology and will decrease the per worker domestic capital stock in that country.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00171005
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  • 24
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    Call for papers (1989)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 2 (1989), S. 320-320 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00171008
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  • 25
    Electronic Resource
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    A sequential probability model of fertility patterns (1990)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 3 (1990), S. 31-51 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The present paper analyses the fertility histories of a sample of women within a stochastic framework. Recognising the sequential nature of reproductive decisions, the probability that a birth will occur at any given date is related to the realisations of past decisions and to all new information accrued since the last decision date, as well as to the characteristics of the potential mother. Time series are combined with survey data to provide information about the changing economic environment facing all women in the sample. The results of the analysis show the effects of wage rates, child benefits and various personal characteristics on birth probability profiles. The conclusions of the econometric analysis are related to existing theory and to the results of other empirical studies of the economic factors affecting the timing and spacing of births.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00160416
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  • 26
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    Capital accumulation, endogenous population growth, and Easterlin cycles (1990)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 3 (1990), S. 73-87 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this “strange” optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00187285
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  • 27
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    Endogenous fertility, altruistic behavior across generations, and social security systems (1990)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 3 (1990), S. 179-192 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract The present paper explores the impact of an intergenerational externality on private fertility decisions, under a pay-as-you-go social security system. The analysis is performed in the framework of a steady state growth model, with overlapping generations. To explain why households have children, altruism between parents and children is assumed. Surprisingly, the effects of altruism are not symmetric. The private fertility decisions are optimal only if children “love” their parents, because children then make private transfers at exactly the right level.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00163074
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  • 28
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    On marriage-specific human capital (1990)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 3 (1990), S. 193-213 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper develops a model of remarriage for women with particular emphasis on the role of investments in marriage-specific human capital. A distinction is made between marriage-specific skills that are transferable across marriages and those that are specific to a particular spouse. It is hypothesized that transferable marriage-specific skills constitute an asset and a major component of gains from marriage for previously married women. A high level of such skills is expected to be associated with fast remarriage. The presence of children is expected to delay remarriage, because it indicates lower levels of past and future investments that would be relevant to a new partnership. These hypotheses are examined using Cox-regression techniques with data on white and black women from the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth. The empirical results are consistent with the hypotheses. A systematic pattern of race differentials is uncovered, which can be interpreted within the context of the model.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00163075
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  • 29
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    How have American baby boomers fared? Earnings and economic well-being of young adults, 1964–1987 (1990)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 3 (1990), S. 277-290 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract For American baby boomers, altered demographic behavior has been the key to transforming adverse labor market conditions into favorable living levels. The economic well-being of baby boomers is, on average, higher than that of their predecessors, because they are disproportionately remaining single, having fewer children, doubling up with others, forming unmarried couple unions, and coupling mother's work with childbearing. In the 1980s, baby boomers share in common with all cohorts an increase in income inequality. In contrast to the findings on average income, demographic changes had little effect on the trend in inequality of economic well-being compared with that in earnings.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/BF00179337
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  • 30
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    The third birth in Sweden (1990)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 3 (1990), S. 235-275 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper considers the formulation, estimation and interpretation of microdynamic models of fertility. Our model explains parity choices, sterility, childlessness, interbirth intervals and initiation of pregnancy within a unified framework. We develop a general methodology for estimating the determinants of transition times to births of different orders. Our procedure incorporates time-varying explanatory variables and unobservables. We present conditions that justify conventional formulae relating hazards to survivor functions when time-varying variables enter hazards. We also consider the validity of widely-used piecemeal estimation strategies that focus on one birth at a time. We consider methods for selecting a best model among a class of non-nested models. Two criteria are set forth and used to evaluate the detminants of third births in Sweden. We find that two models fit Swedish microdata equally well. One model is consistent with neoclassical economic theory. It assigns a central role to the wages of men and women in explaining the timing and spacing of births. The other model is purely demographic and excludes wages. Purely statistical criteria cannot distinguish these models although in other work we show that the economic models are more parsimonious in terms of the number of parameters that must be estimated and are better able to forecast aggregate time series. We demonstrate how to interpret the output of multistate fertility models. Wage effects on third births are decomposed into two components: (a) an in direct effect that determines whether a woman is at risk to have a third birth, and (b) a direct effect on the transition rate to the third birth given that a woman has had two births. We find that female wages play an important role in postponing first births but play only a minor role in explaining childlessness. Female wages substantially affect third births. Male wage effects are weaker. We find that female wage effects weaken for more recent cohorts of women. This evidence is consistent with the introduction of progressively more pronatal Swedish policies.
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    Population growth, farmland, and the long-run standard of living (1991)
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    Journal of population economics 4 (1991), S. 37-51 
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper studies the natural-resources element in the theory of population growth over the very long run. In the context of the stock of land and Malthusian crises in earlier times, the model shows how resources have become more available rather than more scarce, even as population and income have increased. The paper sketches a mechanism which, added to the Malthusian system, leads to entirely different conclusions than does the Malthusian system. Using the illustration of food and land, change in knowledge and hence in the stock of resources is made a function of the stock of knowledge and the price of resources. The speed of adjustment depends on the economic and social climate for the development of new knowledge. Population growth first raises food and land prices, which then stimulate the creation of new resources, eventually leading to less scarcity of resources and lower prices than originally prevailed. That is, population growth creates new problems which in the short run constitute additional burdens which, in the longer run, lead to new developments that leave people better off than if the problems had never arisen.
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    Home investment in husband's human capital and the wife's decision to work (1991)
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    Journal of population economics 4 (1991), S. 71-86 
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract I use a home production model to show that wives of managerial husbands who invest in their husbands' careers are less likely to work. Positive assortative mating for work-related traits like education, ability and drive suggests the opposite effect on labor force participation. 1 examine time diary data from the United States in the mid 1970's, and find that wives of managers are more likely to work, but that increasing the wife's years of education reduces her probability of working. The latter finding shows that the investment in husband's human capital effect exists; the former finding shows that it is overwhelmed by the positive assortative mating effect. No such investment effect is found for wives of professional husbands, and negative assortative mating for work related characteristics seems to be present because such wives are less likely, overall, to work.
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    Optimal pension funding with demographic instability and endogenous returns on investment (1991)
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    Journal of population economics 4 (1991), S. 137-154 
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    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract This paper tries to explore some optimal funding policies for pension systems in a general equilibrium setting where funding affects returns on investment and wages through its impact on capital formation. This is done in the context of irregular demographic evolutions such as those expected in developed countries for the next century. Particular attention is given to the intergenerational welfare criterion which is used for designing optimal policies. It appears that funding receives low justification with a welfare criterion which assumes a high substitutability between consumptions of successive cohorts, implying a low concern for intergenerational equity. Funding is highly justified in the opposite case where a high level of consumption for some cohorts is not considered as a compensation for low consumption by others. However the optimal patterns of transfers and savings which are found in this latter case are not straightforward. Some simpler funding rules are explored in the last section of this paper, which show that non-optimal funding may imply, on the contrary, a high level of inequality between subsequent generations.
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    Tax reform, population ageing and the changing labour supply behaviour of married women (1991)
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    Journal of population economics 4 (1991), S. 201-216 
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    Notes: Abstract The burden of financing retirement incomes in an ageing population is predicted to rise sharply in future decades. This paper investigates the effects of reforms to the Australian tax-benefit system involving a greater reliance on proportional taxation for raising revenue and a more targeted welfare system for cutting government expenditure, in order to reduce expected budget deficits. Estimates of changes in net incomes and hours of work suggest that reforms of this kind shift the tax burden to lower and middle income households with a second earner and that they can have counter-productive labour supply effects. The study explores the impact of projected increases in female work force participation and illustrates the importance of shifts in the labour supply of married women in predicting the fiscal effects of demographic change.
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    Call for papers (1991)
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    Journal of population economics 4 (1991), S. 307-307 
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    Cohort size and schooling choice (1993)
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    Journal of population economics 6 (1993), S. 31-55 
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    Notes: Abstract We develop a perfect-foresight overlapping generations model to investigate the effects of cohort size on schooling decisions and cohort-specific welfare measures. A set of sufficient conditions are presented which ensure the existence of an unique sequence of human capital rental rates and schooling choices for any sequence of cohort sizes. We calibrate the partial equilibrium model using data on schooling investments and aggregate wages over the period 1920 through 1980, and use the parameters to assess the magnitude of lifetime cohort wealth and schooling elasticities computed with respect to the entire cohort size sequence. We find that the equilibrium response of schooling to perturbations in the cohort size sequence is small, so that the adverse effects of increases in the size of own and neighboring cohorts on cohort wealth are not significantly migrated by adjustments in schooling investments within our modelling framework.
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    Demographics and the dynamics of earnings (1993)
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    Journal of population economics 6 (1993), S. 105-122 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper discusses how demographic changes, in particular changes in cohort size, female labor force participation and migration, influence the dynamics of wage rate profiles. A review of the literature suggests that there are demographic effects on wage rate profiles, although they are usually rather small. Future research should concentrate on second-order adjustments and long-term effects of demographic changes.
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    Earnings adjustment of temporary migrants (1993)
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    Journal of population economics 6 (1993), S. 153-168 
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    Notes: Abstract The strong incentives of migrants to invest into human capital and the positive selective character of migration are the main explanations for the rapid decrease of the earnings gap between migrants and natives, and, in some cases, the cross-over of migrants' earings profiles with those of native workers, as found in a variety of empirical studies on migration to the USA, Canada and Australia. The present paper shows that in the case of temporary migration the optimal investment into country specific human capital should be lower than in the case of permanent migration. Investments may not be sufficient to allow migrants' earnings to catch up with those of native workers. Furthermore, it is shown that migration is positively selective only under certain labor market conditions. Empirical findings support the hypothesis that the migrant's length of stay in the host country has an effect on his investment into human capital and, consequently, on his earnings position. The results strongly suggest the need for carefully differentiating between temporary and permanent migration when investigating migrants' learnings assimilation.
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    Poverty dynamics in eight countries (1993)
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    Journal of population economics 6 (1993), S. 215-234 
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    Notes: Abstract Despite very different macroeconomic conditions, demographic structures and degrees of income inequality, favorable income changes among low-income families with children were widespread and strikingly similar across the eight countries in our study. In most European countries, the combination of modest inequality and extensive mobility among the poor enabled virtually all families to avoid relative income deprivation at least occasionally. However, even substantial mobility among the poor in the Unites States could not elevate the living standards of one in seven white and two in five black families to a level that was half that enjoyed by a typical American family.
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    Economic and demographic effects on working women in Latin America (1993)
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    Journal of population economics 6 (1993), S. 293-315 
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    Notes: Abstract The paper uses historical census data and the latest household surveys to investigate the evolution of female employment in Latin America, the effect of demographic factors on female labor force participation, and the reasons for the observed male-female gap in labor earnings. The findings show that, though women's labor force participation in Latin America has indeed increased despite the adverse economic conditions of the last two decades, marriage and fertility still exercise a large negative effect on women's labor supply. On average in the 15 countries studied, marriage reduces the probability that a woman would work by half, and each child by a further 3–5% These effects result in age-participation profiles that decrease with age although the econometric analysis suggests that, as women get older, they have a ceteris paribus greater probability to seek employment. In all the countries studied women are rewarded less than men and gender differences in human capital characteristics cannot account for the observed earnings differential. The paper discusses the significance of the findings for potential policies to assist women, especially in the areas of education and fertility, and also suggests the direction of further reserarch.
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    Rawlsian optimal population size (1993)
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    Journal of population economics 6 (1993), S. 363-373 
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    Notes: Abstract In this paper, I examine the implications of the Rawlsian maximin criterion for optimal population size and intergenerational allocation of resource when fertility is endogenous. I show that whenever children are better-off than their parents in laissez-faire, then the size of the population and parental bequests are also optimal according to the Rawlsian criterion. Otherwise, laissez-faire leads to overpopulation and suboptimal bequests. I then show that by using proper price-based corrective policies, society can achieve a Rawlsian optimal allocation. These policies involve either a combination of a subsidy to aggregate future consumption and a per-capita tax on children, or a subsidy to average future consumption.
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    Effects of the one-child family policy on second and third births in Hebei, Shaanxi and Shanghai (1994)
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    Journal of population economics 7 (1994), S. 63-78 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper uses the proportional hazards model to assess the effect of the Chinese one-child policy on second and third births. The differential effects of the policy between the urban and rural areas and by the sex of previous children are highlighted. First, the urban-rural differentials have increased much after the policy, suggesting a more rapid increase in the costs of children and stricter government controls in the urban areas. Second, the sex of children has become a more important factor after the policy. The considerably higher risks to a subsequent birth among sonless families indicate the persistent strong son preferences among Chinese parents, especially in less developed areas. Although son preferences seem suppressed in Shanghai, the higher risks to a second birth after the death of a son compared to a daughter are indicative of the son preferences even in Shanghai. Relaxation of the one-child policy may increase the Chinese fertility.
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    Native wage impacts of foreign labor: a random effects panel analysis (1994)
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    Journal of population economics 7 (1994), S. 177-192 
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    Notes: Abstract Natives often fear labor market competition of foreigners, as they may induce declining wages and rising unemployment as in the case of natives and immigrants being substitutes. However, there is also the potential that they are complements, producing positive wage and employment effects. This issue is examined in a framework with two types of labor, such that low qualified native and immigrant workers (blue collar), although substitutes for one another, are potentially complements to high qualified native workers (white collar). This is thought to accurately reflect the past West German immigration experience. Examining the wage functions of white and blue collar natives in a random effects panel model using a vast sample of micro data, we actually find that foreigners negatively affect the wages of Germans on the whole. Relatively small gains are made by white collar employees with less than 20 years experience, but these are outweighed by the larger negative effects experienced by blue collar employees.
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    The declining marital-status earnings differential (1994)
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    Journal of population economics 7 (1994), S. 247-270 
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    Notes: Abstract Earnings differentials between married and unmarried men have been declining since the late 1960s. We consider two possible explanations for this decline: changes in the nature of selection into marriage; and changes in role specialization within marriage. Our analysis of changes in marriage differentials within cohorts supports only a small contribution of changes in selection. There is some evidence that differences in human-capital investment between married and unmarried men have fallen over time, but this effect has apparently been largely offset by increases in the return to that human capital.
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    Arie Kapteyn 1993 President of the European Society for Population Economics (1994)
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    Journal of population economics 7 (1994), S. 331-331 
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    Age at motherhood in Japan (1994)
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    Journal of population economics 7 (1994), S. 393-420 
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    Notes: Abstract The paper analyzes factors influencing the age of motherhood in Japan, using both cross-sectional and time-series data. Both hazard rate and time series analyses support the hypothesis that better women's earning opportunities, as indicated by their educational attainments and relative pay, encourage Japanese women to marry and become mothers later in their lives. But both these analyses indicate that the trend toward later marriage and motherhood in Japan cannot be fully accounted for by improvements in women's educational attainments and earning opportunities, and the hazard analysis indicates that the strength of the trend increases with a woman's educational attainment.
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    Editorial collaborators (1994)
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    Journal of population economics 7 (1994), S. 421-421 
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    Toward a general analysis of endogenous Easterlin cycles (1995)
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    Journal of population economics 8 (1995), S. 35-57 
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    Notes: Abstract Easterlin believed that there were two features associated with the birth cycles he observed: the cycles were related to the labor market, and they might be self-generating. This paper tries to set up a model that contains both of these two features. We suppose that the welfare of various age-specific cohorts are determined by their respective marginal productivity, and that the underlying technology which puts together labor force of various age-specific cohorts can be characterized by a general production function. Under these weak assumptions, we show that the well-analyzed cohort and period models along the lines of Lee (1974) are restricted versions of our general setting. Given that both the cohort model and the period model were rejected by statistical tests, we adopt the coefficient values obtained from the estimation of the unrestricted version to perform the bifurcation analysis. We go beyond the previous study which focused upon the possible existence of limit cycles, and show that the U. S. fertility limit cycle solution is unstable. Therefore the population trajectory will never converge to that limit cycle.
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    Utilitarian tradeoff between population growth and income growth (1995)
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    Journal of population economics 8 (1995), S. 81-87 
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    Notes: Abstract Utilitarian social welfare functions were devised for a world with a fixed population. With endogenous population, Edgeworth conjectured that the Benthamite principle of maximizing total utility (classical utilitarianism) would lead to a larger population size and a lower standard of living than the Millian principle of maximizing per capita utility (average utilitarianism). One objection to the Benthamite criterion was that its application to a world with finite resources often implied large population size in conjunction with an ‘embarrassingly low’ average standard of living. In a static environment with altruistic parents, this may not be warranted. In a growth situation, this criticism is even less likely to be supported. This paper extends the comparison of classical and average utilitarianism from a static to a dynamic and endogenously growing economy. Using a stylised endogenous growth framework, it confirms that the Benthamite population growth rate exceeds the Millian growth rate. In terms of the rate of growth of per capita income, the reverse is true. Having the standard of living often increasing under the Benthamite criterion, our results thereby depart significantly from ‘the repugnant conclusion’ levelled against classical utilitarianism.
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    The political economy of rationing in social health insurance (1995)
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    Journal of population economics 8 (1995), S. 137-148 
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    Notes: Abstract Due to the rapid progress in medical technology social insurance systems will soon no longer be able to grant health services without limits but must employ non-price rationing devices. This raises the question how these limits will be determined. Here we consider a direct democracy where the size of the social health insurance plan is determined in a popular referendum using simple majority rule. Moreover, two different kinds of rationing are distinguished according to whether additional private purchases of health care are allowed. For both systems we examine the size of the social insurance system in a political equilibrium, and we compare the results in particular with respect to their distributional effects.
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    Mothers in an insider-outsider economy: The puzzle of Spain (1996)
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    Journal of population economics 9 (1996), S. 301-323 
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    Keywords: Key words: Childbirth ; labor force participation ; labor force transitions
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    Notes: Abstract. There is growing evidence that social policies towards mothers have important effects on their labour market behaviour. This article argues that these effects are less important in a Male Breadwinner Regime if there is employment insecurity in the household or if women intend to participate in the long-run. I consider the case of Spain, where the workforce has become polarized between insiders and outsiders and where social policies closely resemble the Male Breadwinner Regime. The results show that Spanish mothers fall into two groups: those who do not withdraw from the labor force after childbirth and those who withdraw and do not re-enter after their children arrive at school age. Entry or re-entry appears related to the husband‘s employment uncertainty. Married women in an ”insider household“ are less likely to be mobile than women in an ”outsider household“.
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    Time preference and labour migration in an OLG model with land and capital (1996)
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    Journal of population economics 9 (1996), S. 387-403 
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    Keywords: F22 ; J61 ; Migration ; overlapping generations
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    Notes: Abstract This paper constructs a two-country migration model in the lines of Galor (1986), in which the world population consists of individuals of two types who have different time preferences. Production uses three inputs: mobile labour, immobile capital and land. It is shown that both countries are necessarily inhabited by agents of both types and exhibit equal density of population and equal interest rate at the steady state equilibrium of the integrated economy. The steady state welfare implications of international labour migration are studied.
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    The effects of teenage fertility on young adult childbearing (1996)
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    Journal of population economics 9 (1996), S. 197-218 
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    Keywords: Key words: Fertility ; method of simulated moments
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    Notes: Abstract. Numerous studies of fertility behavior find that an early age at first birth increases the rate of subsequent childbearing. Typically, however, these studies do not account for the possibility of serial correlation in the unobserved determinants of fertility. Using 1979–1992 individual-level data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, this paper employs the Method of Simulated Moments to estimate panel probit models of annual birth outcomes. The panel probit models account for several alternative sources of serial correlation. Estimation reveals that once serial correlation is taken into account, the subsequent fertility effects of early childbearing are either statistically eliminated or reversed. JEL classification: J13
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    Women's transitions in the labour market: A competing risks analysis on German panel data (1996)
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    Journal of population economics 9 (1996), S. 287-300 
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    Keywords: J22 ; J13 ; Female labour supply ; part-time work ; duration analysis ; competing risks
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    Notes: Abstract This paper analyses the transitions between the three states of non-employment, part-time and full-time work of a sample of married women living in West Germany. The questions addressed concern the dynamics of women's labour market transitions and the association of the probability of transition with household and individual characteristics. A non-parametric duration analysis shows that women have a similar attachment to full-time and part-time work in terms of survival, and that survival in non-employment is shorter than in the other two states. Estimates of a parametric discrete-time competing risks duration model show that wives of retired husbands go into full-time work, children under 3 years have a disincentive effect on part-time work and that part-time work is a state that German women prefer to stay in and not a first step to full-time employment, whereas foreign women living in West Germany prefer full-time jobs.
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    Employment after childbearing and women's subsequent labour force participation: Evidence from the British 1958 birth cohort (1996)
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    Journal of population economics 9 (1996), S. 325-348 
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    Keywords: J 22 ; J 13 ; Maternity leave ; childbirth ; labor force participation
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    Notes: Abstract Data on women from the British 1958 Cohort Study is used as evidence on the determinants of their labour force participation at age 33. A conventional cross-sectional model of full or part-time employment makes use of some longitudinal material not normally included in such models. Whether the woman made the hitherto customary break from. employment at the time of the first maternity is included in recognition that this cohort was among the first generation to be offered Statutory Maternity Leave. Results suggest that the presence of children (still) inhibits full-time employment and raises the probability of part-time employment; that income effects on participation have continued to weaken while wage elasticity for full-time employment is high. Continuity of employment straight after childbearing raises the chances of subsequent full-time employment, but by no means guarantees it. Gains from maternity leave and other family friendly employment policies have been far from uniform.
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    Saving, dependency and development (1996)
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    Journal of population economics 9 (1996), S. 365-386 
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    Keywords: J11 ; O15 ; O16 ; Population growth ; saving ; development
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    Notes: Abstract The widely-observed finding in the literature showing little or no relationship between population growth (and dependency) and saving requires modification based on panel and cross-section estimation of aggregate country data. While such a relationship is still weak in the hybrid Leff-type model, it is now found consistently over time and by stage of development in the Mason variable-growth life-cycle framework, where changes in demographic factors account for a notable part of saving.
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    Fertility, growth and the financing of public education and health (1996)
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    Journal of population economics 9 (1996), S. 415-428 
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    Keywords: H42 ; J 13 ; O 11 ; Fertility ; growth ; public education and health
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    Notes: Abstract This paper considers the implications of the financing of government services to children when fertility decisions are endogenously determined. In particular, it is shown that when the services are financed by taxation, the equilibrium outcome is biased away from the socially preferred result. The bias results in higher fertility rates and lower economic growth rates than the efficient social optimum. This arises because each household internalizes the benefits, but not the costs of the tax-financed services. We consider alternative methods of financing the public provision of services and find that a combination of taxation and vouchers can eliminate the bias in the equilibrium outcome.
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    Saving, dependency and development (1996)
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    Journal of population economics 9 (1996), S. 365-386 
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    Keywords: Key words: Population growth ; saving ; development
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    Notes: Abstract. The widely-observed finding in the literature showing little or no relationship between population growth (and dependency) and saving requires modification based on panel and cross-section estimation of aggregate country data. While such a relationship is still weak in the hybrid Leff-type model, it is now found consistently over time and by stage of development in the Mason variable-growth life-cycle framework, where changes in demographic factors account for a notable part of saving. JEL classification: J11, O15, O16
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    Editorial (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 1-2 
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    Bernard M.S. van Praag 1986/87 President of the European Society for Population Economics (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 3-4 
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    The notion of population economics (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 5-16 
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    Population policy and individual choice (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 17-31 
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    Notes: Abstract The general equilibrium implications of endogenous fertility for several social issues of population policy are examined. Laissez faire is found to lead to Pareto optimality within generations even in the presence of public goods and Malthusian diminishing returns. On the other hand, bequests emerge as a major potential source of Pareto inefficiency when parents care about the number and welfare of their offspring. Also considered are questions of intergenerational justice and equity using an intergenerational social welfare function. It is shown that maximizing the sum of utilities always leads to a larger population than maximizing per capita utility, but that the laissez-faire solution may lie outside the interval bounded by the two criteria.
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    Age structure and income distribution policy (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 33-55 
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    Notes: Abstract The dependence of earnings on age is a firmly established empirical fact. A simple microeconomic model of educational choice, being consistent with this observation, is designed. The model lends itself readily to aggregation over individuals and age groups. Thus, relations can be set up between economic variables influencing the aggregate distribution of labour incomes and demographic variables determining the age structure of the population. The main results of the present study are the following two: Overall earnings inequality is shown to be an increasing function of life expectancy and a decreasing function of fertility. The effectiveness of redistributive policies in sensitive to the age composition. In particular, the inequality-reducing effect of a one percent income tax rise is shown to be the smaller the older the population.
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    First ESPE Congress and General Assembly in Rotterdam, 1987 (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 90-92 
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    Labour migration as a response to relative deprivation (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 57-70 
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    Notes: Abstract In this paper we define the relative deprivation of a person with income y as an increasing function of the percentage of individuals in the person's reference group whose income is larger than y. We obtain his satisfaction by adding up the marginal utilities of income over the range of income a person possesses. We model migration from one reference group to another as a response to relative deprivation and satisfaction: We say that a strong incentive to migrate exists if relative deprivation decreases while satisfaction rises with migration and that a weak incentive exists if the individual increases or decreases his satisfaction and deprivation at the same time by migrating. We derive conditions under which different incentives, weak or strong, hold for different individuals. We obtain the result that in general the richest individual in a society will not have a strong incentive to migrate but may have a weak incentive to migrate, whereas the poorest individual may have a strong incentive to migrate and also a weak incentive to migrate. Our analysis enables us to explain several perplexing migratory phenomena, identify income inequality as a distinct explanatory variable of migration and establish an incentive to migrate in situations where the utility-social welfare approach does not.
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    Call for papers (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 89-89 
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    Application of Granger-Sims causality tests to monthly fertility data, 1958–1984 (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 71-88 
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    Notes: Abstract When applied to monthly age specific data, Granger-Sims causality tests provide a useful technique for identifying the effective lag between business cycles and fertility in the United States. Male and female monthly age specific unemployment rates are used as a proxy for the business cycle, and test results are presented for first and higher order birth rates, as well as total age-specific monthly fertility rates. The period is subdivided (January 1958 – May 1973 and June 1973 – December 1984) in order to identify possible trends. Four results hold in all cases studied, with respect to the relationship between unemployment and fertility. (1) Noncausality is rejected in the direction from unemployment to fertility, and no ‘feedback’ effect is indicated; thus the relationship is one of simple causality. (2) In the ‘critical’ decision period from 9–16 months prior to realized fertility rates, the sign of the effect of unemployment on fertility is negative: this holds for both male and female unemployment rates. (3) There appears to have been a shortening of the effective lag between unemployment and fertility, of perhaps 2 – 3 months, between periods 1 (1959 – 1973) and 2 (1973 – 1984). (5) The strength of the (negative) relationship between unemployment and fertility appears to have increased from period 1 to period 2.
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    European Society for Population Economics Statutes (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 93-94 
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    On tests for sex preferences (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 95-114 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a critical evaluation of three widely used tests for sex preferences: sex ratio, parity progression ratio and ordinary least squares regression of birth interval. We show that under some appropriate conditions, the sex ratio is a valid test for sex preferences. The methods of parity progression ratio and OLS regression of birth interval fail to deal with right censoring and time varying covariates, which reduce the power of the tests. We suggest the use of hazard estimation to test for sex preferences. We demonstrate the differences among the tests by analyzing the retrospective fertility histories of the Chinese and the Malays in Malaysia. We find that unlike the two conventional methods, the hazard estimation gives clear and strong evidence of sex preferences among the Chinese in Malaysia.
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    An interest-group theory of population growth (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 131-139 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper applies the interest-group theory of government to explain population growth. The main argument is that countries whose populations are more ethnically heterogeneous will tend to have higher fertility rates because there are more interest groups which compete for control of the political process of wealth redistribution. The theoretical model is supported by empirical evidence using data on 130 countries for 1980.
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    The dependency ratio and optimum population growth (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 141-156 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper examines the effects of introducing a variable dependency ratio in Dasgupta's (1969) model. We consider a case in which the probability of dying as well as the rate of participation in the labor force change with age. It is shown that the inclusion of those realistic demographic features slows down the optimal rate of population growth and increases the rate of consumption. In spite of the reduction in the rate of population growth, this rate can still be positive. The sensitivity of the solutions to changes in the demographic parameters of the model is examined.
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    Wage differentials due to gender (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 115-130 
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    Notes: Abstract In this paper, a longitudinal data set covering 5% of all Danish wage earners over a 9-year period is used to shed light on the observed wage differentials due to gender. A human capital model is used to isolate the effects of changes in experience, schooling and unemployment, together with other factors. The model is specified as a fixed effect model that takes into account unobserved factors such as individual skills, the tendency to have an extra job and other factors. Despite the observation from macro statistics that women have had the highest observed increases in wage rates, the models show that this increase is mainly due to an improvement in their background characteristics and that men still receive a higher return to their characteristics. The main difference between genders appears to be that female workers do not, in general, get any return to their experience. The estimates also show negative effects on the wage rate of previous spells of unemployment.
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    Call for papers (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 163-163 
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    Merging populations, stochastic dominance and Lorenz curves (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 157-161 
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    Notes: Abstract In typical comparisons of inequality the condition that the means of the distributions are equal is hardly met. In these cases, the widely used Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for stochastic dominance. It is suggested to replace the Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion with an absolute Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion. The implications of adopting this criterion are discussed in the context of fixed populations and changing populations.
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    Second ESPE Congress and General Assembly in Mannheim, 1988 (1988)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1988), S. 164-166 
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    Temporary vs. permanent migration A decision theoretical approach (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 195-211 
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    Notes: Abstract The decision problem of the guest worker as a target saver is considered. He plans to accumulate capital in the host country for investment in the home country after return migration. As the worker is supposed to be incompletely informed about the economic variables in the host country he might prolong his stay unexpectedly provided the economic conditions in the host country are unfavourable. Explicit conditions for the economic variables are given such that temporary migration turns into permanent migration.
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    Age structure and capital dilution effects in neo-classical growth models (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 183-194 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper reexamines the problem of the relationship between demographic growth and per capita income in neo-classical growth models with age-structured populations. It is suggested that, when they assume a constant rate of capital depreciation, such models overestimate the negative impact of population growth through capital dilution effects. With more realistic depreciation schedules, the ageing of the capital stock which results from lower growth implies a higher overall depreciation rate, which reduces benefits from lower capital dilution. The implications of this observation are examined for the existence of an optimum population growth rate, for models with heterogeneous capital, and for models where capital obsolescence is not fixed but is allowed to vary.
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    Age structure, education, and the transmission of technical change (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 167-181 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper presents a model of optimal economic growth with exogenous technical change that is embodied in people. That is, newly invented techniques can be used only if the production unit engages labour that has been trained to produce according to this new technique. The model illustrates the negative impact of slower population growth on the rate of technology adaptation. When the growth rate of population is high, the introduction of technological innovations into the production process is primarily achieved through the constant influx of recently educated young people. When the relative share of this influx is reduced, increased education becomes necessary in order to prevent the gap between technology in theory and technology in practice from becoming too large.
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    Household composition and optimal commodity taxes (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 213-224 
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    Notes: Abstract This paper investigates conditions under which demographic variables will have no impact on commodity taxes. We allow nonlinear and nonseparable preferences, a general demographic demand procedure, and a demogrant scheme linked to the number of children. Formulae for demographic revision of tax estimates are presented in a form that can be easily applied, and the only marginal data requirement is the number of children in the household. The paper extends an earlier exercise (Ray 1988) in avoiding the need for equivalence scales, and in using a demogrant scheme that is consistent with current practice in several European countries. The study confirms the robustness of the earlier discussion to the demogrant scheme adopted.
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    Call for Papers (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 235-235 
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    Diet, mortality and life expectancy A cross national analysis (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 225-233 
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    Notes: Abstract There are numerous reasons why mortality and life expectancy vary between countries. Epidemiological studies seem to indicate that dictary variations may be among them. A sample of 51 countries studied with data from the International Comparisons Project and other sources, shows that after controlling for nutrient intake, consumption of medical goods and services, income distribution, weather, and literacy, countries with more meat and poultry in their diet have lower life expectancies after age five. The results for infant mortality and child death between one and five indicate that a more animal-intensive diet may be actually be beneficial, especially if fish consumption is increased and meat and poultry consumption reduced.
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    Preschoolers with working mothers (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 251-268 
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    Notes: Abstract This research examines the determinants of child care mode choice for the preschool-age children of working mothers. Attention is focused on two main questions. First, do increases in economic resources raise the likelihood that center care arrangements will be employed? And second, is there a quality-quantity tradeoff in the context of child care? A multinomial logit analysis of data on preschoolers from the 1982 National Survey of Family Growth (conducted in the United States) yields positive answers to both of these questions.
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    Intergenerational transfers in industrialised countries (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 269-284 
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    Notes: Abstract Estimates of the direction of net intergenerational transfers for Britain and Japan indicate that they are from younger to older generations. The estimates are similar to those for the USA by Lee and Lapkoff (1988). In the absence of capital dilution effects, because of these transfers, higher fertility would increase lifetime consumption in these countries. The strength of the transfer effect is somewhat higher for Japan than Britain or the USA, primarily because of longer life expectancy among the Japanese.
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    Demographic behavior and the welfare state (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 237-250 
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    Notes: Abstract The evaluation of the effects of tax and transfer programs on demographic behavior raises a number of difficult econometric issues related to identification of program effects. The main issue concerns whether there exists the true exogenous variation in program parameters necessary to estimate the effects of the program on behavior. This paper provides a discussion of the types of exogenous variation that are commonly available as well as the pitfalls in using potentially endogenous sources of variation. The general points are illustrated with an example drawn from the demographic literature in the United States. The paper concludes with a recommendation that the source of exogenous variation in program parameters be carefully examined in any study undertaken.
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    Editorial collaborators (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 303-303 
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    Announcements (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 304-304 
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    The old age security hypothesis and optimal population growth (1989)
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    Journal of population economics 1 (1989), S. 285-301 
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    Notes: Abstract The old age security approach is used to study the relationship between the rate of growth of the population and capital accumulation, within a Samuelson-Diamond overlapping generations framework. It is shown that a decentralized economy will fail, in general, to achieve the Pareto optimal path. However, a pay-as-you-go social security scheme in which the old get transfers which are proportional to the number of their children may restore optimality. On the other hand, child support systems or subsidies to capital can guarantee the optimal capital: labor ratio, but not the optimal population growth rate, while a lump sum social security system can guarantee the optimal population growth rate, but not the optimal capital: labor ratio. Finally, in a monetary economy any policy aimed at correcting the interest rate will restore full optimality.
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    Editorial The second decade (1997)
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    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 1-2 
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    Population policy: Authoritarianism versus cooperation (1997)
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    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 3-22 
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    Keywords: Key words: Population policy ; women‘s emancipation ; China ; India
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The people whose interests are most adversely affected by frequent bearing and rearing of children are young women. Social changes that expand the decisional power of young women (such as expansion of female literacy, or enhancement of female employment opportunity) can, thus, be major forces in the direction of reducing fertility rates. This “cooperative” route seems to act more securely – and often much faster – than the use of “coercion” in reducing family size and birth rates. This essay examines the comparative evidence from India and China on this subject as well as the interregional contrasts within India. JEL classification: J11, J13, O15
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050029
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    Dynamic microeconomic models of fertility choice: A survey (1997)
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    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 23-65 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Fertility ; dynamic micro models
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. We review existing approaches to the specification and estimation of dynamic microeconomic models of fertility. Dynamic fertility models explain the evolution of fertility variates over the life-cycle as the solution to a dynamic programming model involving economic choices. Dynamic models may be classified into structural and reduced-form models. Structural models generally require solution of the underlying dynamic programming problem. Reduced-form models, while based on a structural specification, do not. Recent innovations in estimation methodologies make both types practical and realistic alternatives to static models of lifetime fertility. JEL classification: J13, C41, C61
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050030
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    The effects of gender control on fertility and children‘s consumption (1997)
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    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 67-85 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Sex preferences ; sex selection ; fertility ; children‘s consumption
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Effects of sex preference on investments in children‘s human capital, bequests and fertility are studied, with and without sex selection, in a model based on parental altruism. Both pure sex preference, a feature of the parental utility function, and indirect preference, which arises from gender-related differences in earnings opportunities, are examined. When there is no gender control the impact of pure sex preference is seen in smaller consumption for daughters than for sons. However, when gender control is exerted, sex preference raises the sex ratio and it is possible that sisters may, on average, consume no less than their more numerous brothers. In an example of the model with specific functional forms, parents who practise gender control have larger families than if sex selection techniques were unavailable. The effect is magnified if sons‘ earnings opportunities are better than daughters‘. JEL classification: D11, J13, J16
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050031
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    Endogenous fertility in a model with non-dynastic parental altruism (1997)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 87-95 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Fertility ; consumption ; bequest equilibrium ; altruism ; non-dynastic preferences.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. A model of fertility choice is studied in which the utility of parents depends on how much they consume, on how many children they have and on the consumption of their children. Hence, parents are altruistic towards their children, but in a more limited sense than in the much discussed dynastic fertility model presented by Becker and Barro (1988). The concept of a (subgame perfect) bequest equilibrium is used to solve the non-dynastic model considered here. The steady state birth rate is lower in the non-dynastic model than in the Becker-Barro model. However, the key qualitative predictions concerning the dynamic behavior of fertility are strikingly similar in both models. JEL classification: J13, J11, D90.
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050032
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    A simple endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility: Indeterminacy and uniqueness (1997)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 97-110 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Endogenous growth ; endogenous fertility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper studies the equilibrium dynamics and indeterminacy of equilibria in an endogenous growth model with endogenous fertility choice. We characterize the conditions that give rise to an unique equilibrium as well as multiple equilibria. Whenever there exists a unique equilibrium, it will be globally determinate; when multiple equilibria arise, indeterminacy occurs. In particular, we find that two equilibria occur – one is associated with high fertility and low growth, while the other is associated with low fertility and high growth. A parameterized example is given to assess the empirical feasibility of our results. The validity of the neo-Malthusian relation between fertility and growth is then re-examined. Finally, we study the relation between growth and welfare and compare different balanced growth equilibria in terms of their lifetime-attained utility. JEL classifications: O41, J13
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050033
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    A conversation with Richard Easterlin (1997)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 119-136 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Easterlin ; relative income ; demographic transition ; fertility ; mortality ; baby boom ; demographic cycles
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. After an introduction touching on various biographical highlights, this paper summarizes a wide-ranging discussion with Richard Easterlin which occurred in the Autumn of 1996. We considered the Easterlin Hypothesis – its genesis and current status, together with Easterlin‘s views on attempts to develop measures of relative income – and then moved on to “The Fertility Revolution” and questions regarding the applicability of the theory of household choice in modernizing societies. This was followed by a discussion of his early career development and influences on him at that time, ending with ruminations regarding the current state of economics, and the validity of training given to young economists today. JEL classification: J10, J11, J13
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050034
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    Evaluating the pin money hypothesis: The relationship between women‘s labour market activity, family income and poverty in Britain (1997)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 137-158 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Women‘s earnings ; poverty ; family income
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. In this paper we evaluate the hypothesis that the over-representation of women amongst the low paid is of little importance because women‘s earnings account for only a small proportion of total family income. Data from the General Household Survey (GHS), together with attitudinal evidence from three cross-sectional data sources, indicate that women‘s earnings are in fact an important and growing component of family income. The majority of the growth in the share of women‘s earnings occurs as a result of changing family labour structures; women‘s earnings are playing an increasingly important role in keeping their families out of poverty. JEL classification: J16; J31.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050035
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    How young workers get their training: A survey of Germany versus the United States (1997)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 159-170 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Vocational training ; apprenticeship ; earnings
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. The recent economic literature on the incidence of various forms of post-secondary on-the-job and off-the-job training in Germany and the United States, as well as on the effects of training on wages, inequality, and labor mobility is surveyed. Young workers in Germany receive substantially more company-based (apprenticeship) training than United States workers. In the United States, high turnover deters firms from investing in general skills while it results in improved job matches. The received literature consents that key institutional elements required to make the German apprenticeship system work are absent in the United States. JEL classification: I2, J3, J24
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050036
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    Training and job mobility among young workers in the United States (1997)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 219-233 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Training ; labor mobility
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth from 1987 to 1992, the determinants of training and the impact of training on job turnover are examined for young private sector workers in the United States. It is found that the receipt of company training is positively correlated with education, ability, and prior tenure at the job. The results provide only limited evidence that company training reduces turnover. There is substantial evidence, however, that training which is not financed by employers increases job mobility. The results imply that training plays an important role in the job search and job matching process among young workers. JEL classification: J24, J41, J63
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050039
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    Is the German apprenticeship system a panacea for the U.S. labor market? (1997)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 171-196 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Apprenticeship training ; human capital ; wage distribution
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. This paper explores the structure of incentives undergirding the German system of apprenticeship training. We first describe characteristics of the German labor market which may lead firms to accept part of the cost of general training, even in the face of worker turnover. We then compare labor market outcomes for apprentices in Germany and high school graduates in the United States. Apprentices in Germany occupy a similar position within the German wage structure as held by high school graduates in the United States labor market. Finally, we provide evidence that – in both countries – the problem of forming labor market bonds is particularly acute for minority youth. JEL classification: J24, J31, J60
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050037
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    Who gets over the training hurdle? A study of the training experiences of young men and women in Britain (1997)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 197-217 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Keywords: Key words: Hurdle count data models ; training ; skills segmentation.
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Notes: Abstract. Using longitudinal data from the British National Child Development Study, this paper examines gender differences in the determinants of work-related training. The analysis covers a crucial decade in the working lives of this 1958 birth cohort of young men and women – the years spanning the ages of 23 to 33. Hurdle negative binomial models are used to estimate the number of work-related training events lasting at least three days. This approach takes into account the fact that more than half the men and two thirds of the women in the sample experienced no work-related training lasting three or more days over the period 1981 to 1991. Our analysis suggests that reliance on work-related training to improve the skills of the work force will result in an increase in the skills of the already educated, but will not improve the skills of individuals entering the labor market with relatively low levels of education. JEL classification: C25, I21, J24.
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    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050038
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    Corrigendum Famine, revolte, and the dynastic cycle Population dynamics in historic China (1997)
    Springer
    Journal of population economics 10 (1997), S. 235-236 
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    ISSN: 1432-1475
    Source: Springer Online Journal Archives 1860-2000
    Topics: Sociology , Economics
    Type of Medium: Electronic Resource
    URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s001480050040
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