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  • Bonn: Bundestag  (2)
  • PANGAEA  (2)
  • Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI)  (1)
  • NOAA/National Marine Fisheries Service  (1)
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  • 1
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    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-27
    Description: In economics and other social sciences, complex processes are often represented by numerical models of reality which more or less well reflect behavioral relationships and interactions. Such attempts are the subject of a lecture course 'Mathematical Theory of Democracy' by the author at the Faculty of Economics of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. One new result in this field is presented here in the form of a statistical test to decide whether a political party or coalition of parties represents a majority of the population. For this purpose, party or coalition positions on a sample of policy issues, like introduction of a legal nationwide minimum wage, privatization of railways, and others, are compared with the results of public opinion polls on the same issues. The test is based on estimating the statistical significance of the coincidence observed (i.e. how likely is the coincidence by chance) to the end of accepting or rejecting the representativeness hypothesis. The test is developed for single parties and coalitions of two or three parties. It is illustrated with an estimation of representativeness of five major German parties and their potential coalitions basing on the official party manifestos published before the German parliamentary elections 2009 and on relevant polls of public opinion.
    Description: In der Ökonomie und den anderen Sozialwissenschaften wird immer wieder versucht, komplexe Prozesse der Wirklichkeit durch numerische Modelle abzubilden - was mit Abstraktionen für z. B. Verhaltens- und Wirkungsrelationen mehr oder weniger gut gelingt. Solche Versuche sind Gegenstand einer Vorlesungsreihe 'Mathematische Theorie der Demokratie' des Autors an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät des Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie. Ein neues Ergebnis in diesem Bereich wird hier vorgelegt in Form eines statistischen Tests, der entscheiden soll, ob eine politische Partei oder eine Parteienkoalition repräsentativ im Sinn der Bevölkerungsmehrheit agiert. Zu diesem Zweck wird die Übereinstimmung von Parteien- oder Koalitionspositionen mit Ergebnissen von Meinungsumfragen in der Bevölkerung verglichen, etwa zur Einführung eines bundesweiten gesetzlichen Mindestlohns oder der Privatisierung des Schienenverkehrs und anderem mehr. Der Test basiert auf der Einschätzung der statistischen Signifikanz der beobachteten Übereinstimmung (d.h. wie wahrscheinlich ist eine nur zufällige Übereinstimmung), um die Hypothese von der Repräsentativität der Politik zu akzeptieren oder abzulehnen. Die Studie spielt die Repräsentativität von einzelnen Parteien sowie von Zweier- und Dreier-Koalitionen durch. Darunter ist auch die Konstellation der fünf großen deutschen Parteien und ihrer potentiell möglichen Koalitionen auf der Basis der Bundestagswahl von 2009.
    Keywords: C12 ; C44 ; C63 ; D71 ; D72 ; ddc:330 ; mathematical theory of democracy ; statistical test ; parties ; coalitions ; representativeness ; Bernoulli matrices ; sums of random vectors ; Demokratie ; Politische Partei ; Öffentliche Meinung ; Wahlverhalten ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
    Publication Date: 2019-07-17
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: PANGAEA Documentation , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 3
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    Bonn: Bundestag
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Keywords: ddc:330 ; Wirtschaftslage ; Wirtschaftspolitische Beratung ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 4
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    Bonn: Bundestag
    Publication Date: 2019-08-01
    Keywords: ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: German
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  • 5
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    NOAA/National Marine Fisheries Service
    Publication Date: 2014-03-07
    Description: The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) Fisheries Sampling Branch (FSB) collects, maintains, and distributes data for scientific and management purposes in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. FSB manages three separate but related observer programs: the Northeast Fisheries Observer Program (NEFOP), the Industry Funded Scallop (IFS) Observer Program, and the At Sea Monitoring (ASM) Program. For the purposes of this manual, “observers” refers to any observer/monitor working for the FSB. In 2011, FSB trained and deployed over 200 observers, provided coverage on a variety of fisheries, and completed over 15,000 sea days. Observed trips are required under many of the region's fishery management plans, and for some fisheries by other federal laws and authorities such as Amendment 16 and Framework 44, Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, Marine Mammal Protection Act, the Endangered Species Act, the and the Sustainable Fisheries Act. The purpose of this guide is to provide FSB observers, as well as end users of NEFSC Observer Program data, with a detailed description of each data field collected. In addition to this manual, the NEFSC Observer Program Biological Sampling and Catch Estimation Manual provides summaries and tables intended to enable observers to quickly determine the correct sampling protocols and methods while at sea. This manual represents a revision of the data forms, collection procedures, and protocols described in the 1996 NEFSC Observer Program Manual. For documentation of other changes see Documentation of changes made to the NEFSC Fisheries Observer Program Manual, 2013.
    Keywords: Fisheries ; Management ; Policies
    Repository Name: Aquatic Commons
    Type: Monograph or Serial Issue , NonPeerReviewed
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  • 6
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    PANGAEA
    Publication Date: 2014-11-19
    Repository Name: EPIC Alfred Wegener Institut
    Type: PANGAEA Documentation , NonPeerReviewed
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