ALBERT

Description: Many agricultural support payments are based on past production with restrictions on how land may currently be used. When support payments to field crops are analyzed in a static framework, they do not directly impact current production decisions. However, over time, as relative profits change, these payments affect current output. The payments may keep land in less profitable production of program crops through restrictions prohibiting potentially more profitable endeavors such as cultivating fruits and vegetables. These payments have the potential to lead to production and trade distortions similar in magnitude to the distortions associated with direct production subsidies.

Description: This paper compares GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) and ICESat (Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite) observations to confirm whether the observed gravity increase in the Tibetan Plateau (TP) was primarily caused by lake storage gain, and comprehensively analyses the changing pattern of lake level over 2003–2009. An improved automated method was used to obtain lake-level changes and the underestimation of lake water storage was considered due to lake area expansion and lake density. The result demonstrates that GRACE recorded a mass gain (16.43 ± 1.65/11.79 ± 1.25 gt a –1 ) in the total/inner TP, of which lake storage increase accounts for (8.78 ± 0.75/7.53 ± 0.56 gt a –1 ) based on ICESat. The northwestern residual may be stored in new lakes and soil moisture as a result of net precipitation gain. According to the character of the lake-level changes, we divide the TP into four subregions. Generally, the changing pattern of lake level concurs with the distribution of precipitation, which is increasing in the inner TP and decreasing in the upstream area of the Indus and Brahmaputra Rivers. An excess of rainfall in the northeastern TP in the summer of 2005 and 2009 caused a simultaneous large increase in water level in many lakes. The correlation of lake changes with precipitation demonstrates that precipitation rather than glacial melt is the main cause of lake-level change in most places. Nonetheless, the meltwater is a considerable supplement for lakes near glaciers such as Selin Co and Nam Co, which partly explains why GRACE indicates a much weaker signal in this region.

Description: Traditional processing of Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) data using dedicated scientific software has provided the highest levels of positional accuracy, and has been used extensively in geophysical deformation studies. To achieve these accuracies a significant level of understanding and training is required, limiting their availability to the general scientific community. Various online GNSS processing services, now freely available, address some of these difficulties and allow users to easily process their own GNSS data and potentially obtain high quality results. Previous research into these services has focused on Continually Operating Reference Station (CORS) GNSS data. Less research exists on the results achievable with these services using large campaign GNSS data sets, which are inherently noisier than CORS data. Even less research exists on the quality of velocity fields derived from campaign GNSS data processed through online precise point positioning services. Particularly, whether they are suitable for geodynamic and deformation studies where precise and reliable velocities are needed. In this research, we process a very large campaign GPS data set (spanning 10 yr) with the online Jet Propulsion Laboratory Automated Precise Positioning Service. This data set is taken from a GNSS network specifically designed and surveyed to measure deformation through the central North Island of New Zealand. This includes regional CORS stations. We then use these coordinates to derive a horizontal and vertical velocity field. This is the first time that a large campaign GPS data set has been processed solely using an online service and the solutions used to determine a horizontal and vertical velocity field. We compared this velocity field to that of another well utilized GNSS scientific software package. The results show a good agreement between the CORS positions and campaign station velocities obtained from the two approaches. We discuss the implications of these results for how future GNSS campaign field surveys might be conducted and how their data might be processed.

Description: We have developed a method to estimate the geometry, location and densities of anomalies coming from 2-D gravity data based on compact gravity inversion technique. Compact gravity inversion is simple, fast and user friendly but severely depends on the number of model parameters, that is, by increasing the model parameters, the anomalies tend to concentrate near the surface. To overcome this ambiguity new weighting functions based on density contrast, depth, and compactness models have been introduced. Variable compactness factors have been defined here to get either a sharp or a smooth model based on the depth of the source or existence of prior information. Depth weighting derived from one station of gravity data whereas the effect of gravity data is 2-D and 3-D. To compensate this limitation an innovating weighting function namely kernel function has been introduced which multiplies with weight and compactness matrixes to yield a general model weighting function. The method is tested using three different sets of synthetic examples: a body at various depths (20, 40, 80 and 140 m), two bodies at the same depth but various distances to estimate lateral resolution and three bodies with negative and positive density contrast in different depths. The method is also applied to three real gravity data of Woodlawn massive sulphide body, sulphides mineralization of British Colombia and iron ore body of Missouri. The method produces solutions consistent with the known geologic attributes of the gravity sources, illustrating its potential practicality.

Description: This paper resurrects a version of Poisson's Partial Differential Equation (PDE) associated with the gravitational field at the Earth's surface and illustrates how the PDE possesses a capability to extract the mass density of Earth's topography from land-based gravity data. Herein, first we propound a theorem which mathematically introduces this version of Poisson's PDE adapted for the Earth's surface and then we use this PDE to develop a method of approximating the terrain mass density. Also, we carry out a real case study showing how the proposed approach is able to be applied to a set of land-based gravity data. In the case study, the method is summarized by an algorithm and applied to a set of gravity stations located along a part of the north coast of the Persian Gulf in the south of Iran. The results were numerically validated via rock-samplings as well as a geological map. Also, the method was compared with two conventional methods of mass density reduction. The numerical experiments indicate that the Poisson PDE at the Earth's surface has the capability to extract the mass density from land-based gravity data and is able to provide an alternative and somewhat more precise method of estimating the terrain mass density.

Description: The Moho surface can be determined according to isostatic theories, and among them, the recent Vening Meinesz-Moritz (VMM) theory of isostasy has been successfully applied for this purpose. In this paper, this method is studied from a theoretical prospective and its connection to the Airy–Heiskanen (AH) and Vening Meinesz original theories are presented. Jeffrey's inverse solution to isostasy is developed according to the recent developments of the VMM method and both are compared in similar situations. It is shown that they are generalizations of the AH model in a global and continuous domain. In the VMM spherical harmonic solution for Moho depth, the mean Moho depth contributes only to the zero-degree term of the series, while in Jeffrey's solution it contributes to all frequencies. In addition, the VMM spherical harmonic series is improved further so that the mean Moho can contribute to all frequencies of the solution. This modification makes the VMM global solution superior to the Jeffrey one, but in a global scale, the difference between both solutions is less than 3 km. Both solutions are asymptotically convergent and we present two methods to obtain smooth solutions for Moho from them.

Description: In a pioneering study, Wahr & Bergen developed the widely adopted, pseudo-normal mode framework for predicting the impact of anelastic effects on the Earth's body tides. Lau et al. have recently derived an extended normal mode treatment of the problem (as well as a minor variant of the theory known as the direct solution method) that makes full use of theoretical developments in free oscillation seismology spanning the last quarter century and that avoids a series of assumptions and approximations adopted in the traditional theory for predicting anelastic effects. There are two noteworthy differences between these two theories: (1) the traditional theory only considers perturbations to the eigenmodes of an elastic Earth, whereas the new theory augments this set of modes to include the relaxation modes that arise in anelastic behaviour; and (2) the traditional theory approximates the complex perturbation to the tidal Love number as a scaled version of the complex perturbation to the elastic moduli, whereas the new theory computes the full complex perturbation to each eigenmode. In this study, we highlight the above differences using a series of synthetic calculations, and demonstrate that the traditional theory can introduce significant error in predictions of the complex perturbation to the Love numbers due to anelasticity and the related predictions of tidal lag angles. For the simplified Earth models we adopt, the computed lag angles differ by ~20 per cent. The assumptions in the traditional theory have important implications for previous studies that use model predictions to correct observables for body tide signals or that analyse observations of body tide deformation to infer mantle anelastic structure. Finally, we also highlight the fundamental difference between apparent attenuation (i.e. attenuation inferred from observations or predicted using the above theories) and intrinsic attenuation (i.e. the material property investigated through experiments), where both are often expressed in terms of lag angles or Q –1 . In particular, we demonstrate the potentially significant (factor of two or more) bias introduced in estimates of Q –1 and its frequency dependence in studies that have treated Q –1 determined from tidal phase lags or measured experimentally as being equal. The observed or theoretically predicted lag angle (or apparent Q –1 ) differs from the intrinsic, material property due to inertia, self-gravity and effects associated with the energy budget. By accounting for these differences we derive, for a special case, an expression that accurately maps apparent attenuation predicted using the extended normal mode formalism of Lau et al. into intrinsic attenuation. The theory allows for more generalized mappings which may be used to robustly connect observations and predictions of tidal lag angles to results from laboratory experiments of mantle materials.

Description: We consider a new approach to both the forward and inverse problems in post-seismic deformation. We present a method for forward modelling post-seismic deformation in a self-gravitating, heterogeneous and compressible earth with a variety of linear and nonlinear rheologies. We further demonstrate how the adjoint method can be applied to the inverse problem both to invert for rheological structure and to calculate the sensitivity of a given surface measurement to changes in rheology or time-dependence of the source. Both the forward and inverse aspects are illustrated with several numerical examples implemented in a spherically symmetric earth model.

Description: The Seiland Igneous Province (SIP) is the largest complex of mafic and ultramafic intrusions in northern Fennoscandia intruded at ca . 580–560 Ma. The depth extent and the deep structure of the SIP are mainly unknown apart from three profiles modelled by gravity and refraction seismic data. Utilizing 3-D gravity modelling, a complex model of the deep subsurface structure of the SIP has been developed. The structure is presented in a multiprofile model ranging from the surface to the Moho. The mafic/ultramafic rocks of the SIP are modelled with densities of 3100 and 3300 kg m –3 , the surrounding rocks by densities of 2700 and 2900 kg m –3 for upper and lower crust, respectively. This density model explains the pronounced positive Bouguer gravity anomaly of up to 100 mGal above background. Its minimum volume is estimated from the subsurface model to 17 000 km 3 and as such we revise downwards the earlier estimations of 25 000 km 3 . The new subsurface model suggests that most of the SIP has a thickness between 2 and 4 km. An area with roots in an annular pattern is found and two deep-reaching roots have been identified located below the islands of Seiland and Sørøy. The depth of these roots is estimated to approximatively 9 km. The SIP is presently interpreted to be in the Caledonian Kalak Nappe Complex and the roots depth constrains its minimum thickness which is larger than earlier estimated. Furthermore, the rather undisturbed shape of the annular root pattern indicates that the SIP has not been subjected to strong tectonic reworking during the Caledonian orogeny.

Description: On 2008 October 5, a magnitude 6.6 earthquake struck the eastern termination of the intermontane Alai valley between the southern Tien Shan and the northern Pamir of Kyrgyzstan. The shallow thrust earthquake occurred in the footwall of the Main Pamir thrust, where the Pamir orogen is colliding with the southern Tien Shan mountains. We measure the coseismic surface displacements using SAR (Synthetic Aperture RADAR) data; the results show clear gradients in the vertical and horizontal directions along a complex pattern of surface ruptures and active faults. To integrate and to interpret these observations in the context of the regional tectonics, we complement the SAR data analysis with seismological data and geological field observations. While the main moment release of the Nura earthquake appears to be on the Pamir Frontal thrust, the main surface displacements and surface rupture occurred in the footwall along the NE–SW striking Irkeshtam fault. With InSAR data from ascending and descending tracks along with pixel offset measurements, we model the Nura earthquake source as a segmented rupture. One fault segment corresponds to high-angle brittle faulting at the Pamir Frontal thrust and two more fault segments show moderate-angle and low-friction thrusting at the Irkeshtam fault. Our integrated analysis of the coseismic deformation argues for rupture segmentation and strain partitioning associated to the earthquake. It possibly activated an orogenic wedge in the easternmost segment of the Pamir-Alai collision zone. Further, the style of the segmentation may be associated with the presence of Palaeogene evaporites.

Description: The terrestrial reference frame is a cornerstone for modern geodesy and its applications for a wide range of Earth sciences. The underlying assumption for establishing a terrestrial reference frame is that the motion of the solid Earth's figure centre relative to the mass centre of the Earth system on a multidecadal timescale is linear. However, past international terrestrial reference frames (ITRFs) showed unexpected accelerated motion in their translation parameters. Based on this underlying assumption, the inconsistency of relative origin motions of the ITRFs has been attributed to data reduction imperfection. We investigated the impact of surface mass loading from atmosphere, ocean, snow, soil moisture, ice sheet, glacier and sea level from 1983 to 2008 on the geocentre variations. The resultant geocentre time-series display notable trend acceleration from 1998 onward, in particular in the z -component. This effect is primarily driven by the hydrological mass redistribution in the continents (soil moisture, snow, ice sheet and glacier). The acceleration is statistically significant at the 99 per cent confidence level as determined using the Mann–Kendall test, and it is highly correlated with the satellite laser ranging determined translation series. Our study, based on independent geophysical and hydrological models, demonstrates that, in addition to systematic errors from analysis procedures, the observed non-linearity of the Earth-system behaviour at interannual timescales is physically driven and is able to explain 42 per cent of the disparity between the origins of ITRF2000 and ITRF2005, as well as the high level of consistency between the ITRF2005 and ITRF2008 origins.

Description: This paper presents a novel mathematical reformulation of the theory of the free wobble/nutation of an axisymmetric reference earth model in hydrostatic equilibrium, using the linear momentum description. The new features of this work consist in the use of (i) Clairaut coordinates (rather than spherical polars), (ii) standard spherical harmonics (rather than generalized spherical surface harmonics), (iii) linear operators (rather than J-square symbols) to represent the effects of rotational and ellipticity coupling between dependent variables of different harmonic degree and (iv) a set of dependent variables all of which are continuous across material boundaries. The resulting infinite system of coupled ordinary differential equations is given explicitly, for an elastic solid mantle and inner core, an inviscid outer core and no magnetic field. The formulation is done to second order in the Earth's ellipticity. To this order it is shown that for wobble modes (in which the lowest harmonic in the displacement field is degree 1 toroidal, with azimuthal order m  = ±1), it is sufficient to truncate the chain of coupled displacement fields at the toroidal harmonic of degree 5 in the solid parts of the earth model. In the liquid core, however, the harmonic expansion of displacement can in principle continue to indefinitely high degree at this order of accuracy. The full equations are shown to yield correct results in three simple cases amenable to analytic solution: a general earth model in rigid rotation, the tiltover mode in a homogeneous solid earth model and the tiltover and Chandler periods for an incompressible homogeneous solid earth model. Numerical results, from programmes based on this formulation, are presented in part II of this paper.

Description: Numerical solutions are presented for the formulation of the linear momentum description of Earth's dynamics using Clairaut coordinates. We have developed a number of methods to integrate the equations of motion, including starting at the Earth's centre of mass, starting at finite radius and separating the displacement associated with the primary rigid rotation. We include rotation and ellipticity to second order up to spherical harmonic T $_5^m$ , starting with the primary displacement T $_1^m$ with m  = ±1. We are able to confirm many of the previous results for models PREM (with no surface ocean) and 1066A, both in their original form and with neutrally stratified liquid cores. Our period search ranges from the near-seismic band [0.1 sidereal days (sd)] to 3500 sd, within which we have identified the four well-known wobble-nutation modes: the Free Core Nutation (retrograde) at –456 sd, the Free Inner Core Nutation (FICN, prograde) at 468 sd, the Chandler Wobble (prograde) at 402 sd, and the Inner Core Wobble (ICW, prograde) at about 2842 sd (7.8 yr) for neutral PREM. The latter value varies significantly with earth model and integration method. In addition we have verified to high accuracy the tilt-over mode at 1 sd within a factor 10 –6 . In an exhaustive search we found no additional near-diurnal wobble modes that could be identified as nutations. We show that the eigenfunctions for the as-yet-unidentified ICW are extremely sensitive to the details of the earth model, especially the core stability profile and there is no well-defined sense of its wobble relative to the mantle. Calculations are also done for a range of models derived from PREM with homogeneous layers, as well as with incompressible cores. For this kind of model the ICW ceases to have just a simple IC rigid motion when the fluid compressibility is either unchanged or multiplied by a factor 10; in this case the outer core exhibits oscillations that arise from an unstable fluid density stratification. For the FICN our results for the truncation at harmonic T 5 show less change from the T 3 truncation than a similar result reported elsewhere. Finally, we give a thorough discussion of the complete spectrum of the characteristic determinant including the location of poles and non-wobble gravity modes, and discuss in general the dynamics of the inviscid core at periods short compared to those involved in the geodynamo.

Description: The lack of robust water markets makes it difficult to value irrigation water. Because water rights are appurtenant to land, it is possible to infer the value of water from observed differences in the market price of land. We use panel data on repeat farmland sales in California's San Joaquin Valley to estimate a hedonic regression equation with parcel fixed effects. This controls for sources of omitted variables bias and allows us to recover the value of irrigation water to landowners in our sample. We show that a more traditional cross-sectional regression results in an artificially low value of irrigation water.

Description: Considering the drawback of existing global weighted mean temperature model, this paper uses 2006–2012 NCEP reanalysis data to establish global empirical model for mapping zenith wet delays onto precipitable water—GTm_N, takes the influence of half-year periodicity of Tm into account when modelling and estimate the initial phase of each cycle. In order to evaluate the precision of GTm_N, we use three different Tm data sets from the NCEP during 2013, 650 radiosonde stations and COSMIC occultation in 2011 to test this model. The results show that GTm_N has higher precision in both ocean and continental area in every moment of every day. The accuracy of GTm_N is higher than Bevis formulas and GTm_II models. In addition, the actual surface temperature is not required in GTm_N model, and it will have wide application in GPS meteorology.

Description: Voluntary approaches have been used in a variety of contexts and for a variety of purposes in agriculture, including voluntary conservation programs and product labeling. This paper provides an overview of some of the general principles that emerge from the literature on voluntary approaches and their application in agriculture. The literature suggests that, to be effective, voluntary approaches must provide sufficiently strong participation incentives to a targeted population, clearly identify standards for behavior or performance that ensure additionality and avoid slippage, and monitor outcomes. Thus, reliance on voluntary approaches in agriculture is likely to be effective only if there is sufficient market demand for certain product characteristics, significant public funds are committed to pay for voluntary actions, or the political will exists to impose regulations if voluntary approaches fail.

Description: Estimating the relief of the Moho from gravity data is a computationally intensive nonlinear inverse problem. What is more, the modelling must take the Earths curvature into account when the study area is of regional scale or greater. We present a regularized nonlinear gravity inversion method that has a low computational footprint and employs a spherical Earth approximation. To achieve this, we combine the highly efficient Bott's method with smoothness regularization and a discretization of the anomalous Moho into tesseroids (spherical prisms). The computational efficiency of our method is attained by harnessing the fact that all matrices involved are sparse. The inversion results are controlled by three hyperparameters: the regularization parameter, the anomalous Moho density-contrast, and the reference Moho depth. We estimate the regularization parameter using the method of hold-out cross-validation. Additionally, we estimate the density-contrast and the reference depth using knowledge of the Moho depth at certain points. We apply the proposed method to estimate the Moho depth for the South American continent using satellite gravity data and seismological data. The final Moho model is in accordance with previous gravity-derived models and seismological data. The misfit to the gravity and seismological data is worse in the Andes and best in oceanic areas, central Brazil and Patagonia, and along the Atlantic coast. Similarly to previous results, the model suggests a thinner crust of 30–35 km under the Andean foreland basins. Discrepancies with the seismological data are greatest in the Guyana Shield, the central Solimões and Amazonas Basins, the Paraná Basin, and the Borborema province. These differences suggest the existence of crustal or mantle density anomalies that were unaccounted for during gravity data processing.

Description: Geophysical parameters of the deep Earth's interior can be evaluated through the resonance effects associated with the core and inner-core wobbles on the forced nutations of the Earth's figure axis, as observed by very long baseline interferometry (VLBI), or on the diurnal tidal waves, retrieved from the time-varying surface gravity recorded by superconducting gravimeters (SGs). In this paper, we inverse for the rotational mode parameters from both techniques to retrieve geophysical parameters of the deep Earth. We analyse surface gravity data from 15 SG stations and VLBI delays accumulated over the last 35 yr. We show existing correlations between several basic Earth parameters and then decide to inverse for the rotational modes parameters. We employ a Bayesian inversion based on the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm with a Markov-chain Monte Carlo method. We obtain estimates of the free core nutation resonant period and quality factor that are consistent for both techniques. We also attempt an inversion for the free inner-core nutation (FICN) resonant period from gravity data. The most probable solution gives a period close to the annual prograde term (or S 1 tide). However the 95 per cent confidence interval extends the possible values between roughly 28 and 725 d for gravity, and from 362 to 414 d from nutation data, depending on the prior bounds. The precisions of the estimated long-period nutation and respective small diurnal tidal constituents are hence not accurate enough for a correct determination of the FICN complex frequency.

Description: We evaluate the benefit of different global geophysical loading products on the internal scatter of GPS position time-series from 240 globally distributed sites. We focus on the non-tidal atmospheric pressure loading predicted from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA-NATML) and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational model (ECMWF-NATML), non-tidal ocean loading predicted from the Ocean Model for Circulation and Tides model (OMCT-NTOL), and the continental water storage loading predicted from the MERRA model (MERRA-CWSL) and the GFZ's Land Surface Discharge Model (LSDM-CWSL), respectively. The result shows that the root mean square (RMS) discrepancy of different CWSL models is larger than that of NATML models in the vertical component due to the varying model parameters and input data choices. We discuss the performance of different loading models and their combination to reduce the weighted RMS of GPS up-coordinates. MERRA-NATML & OMCT-NTOL & MERRA-CWSL reduced the weighted RMS (WRMS) in 96 per cent (JPL solutions) and 86 per cent (SOPAC solutions) of the cases, and ECMWF-NATML & OMCT-NTOL & LSDM-CWSL reduced the WRMS in 95 per cent (JPL solutions) and 88 per cent (SOPAC solutions) of the cases. The result shows that local effects and technical uncertainties in GPS time-series hamper the meaningful comparison between GPS observations and mass loading models. Hence, simply using the RMS of the time-series as the assessment criteria may lead to biased comparison results. Nonetheless, we give a detailed comparison (differences in phase and amplitude at seasonal timescales) for eight representative stations located adjacent to great rivers, lakes and reservoirs. We find that LSDM can provide a complementary model to study the small-scale hydrological loading like loading extremes along river channels. However, such small-scale hydrological loading effects are still instable to be modelled in some regions with its current accuracy. Finally, we discuss the impacts of mass loading corrections on the velocity and noise estimates. The noise reductions have the consistent performance as WRMS reductions for most sites, whereas some sites have their noise increased even though GPS signal WRMS is decreased there, suggesting that our posterior correction is potentially feasible, but not sufficient.

Description: Although an amount of hydrocarbon has been discovered in the West Korea Bay Basin (WKBB), located in the North Korean offshore area, geophysical investigations associated with these hydrocarbon reservoirs are not permitted because of the current geopolitical situation. Interpretation of satellite-derived potential field data can be alternatively used to image the 3-D density distribution in the sedimentary basin associated with hydrocarbon deposits. We interpreted the TRIDENT satellite-derived gravity field data to provide detailed insights into the spatial distribution of sedimentary density structures in the WKBB. We used 3-D forward density modelling for the interpretation that incorporated constraints from existing geological and geophysical information. The gravity data interpretation and the 3-D forward modelling showed that there are two modelled areas in the central subbasin that are characterized by very low density structures, with a maximum density of about 2000 kg m –3 , indicating some type of hydrocarbon reservoir. One of the anticipated hydrocarbon reservoirs is located in the southern part of the central subbasin with a volume of about 250 km 3 at a depth of about 3000 m in the Cretaceous/Jurassic layer. The other hydrocarbon reservoir should exist in the northern part of the central subbasin, with an average volume of about 300 km 3 at a depth of about 2500 m.

Description: We present an analytical solution for the elastic deformation of an elastic, transversely isotropic, layered and self-gravitating Earth by surface loads. We first introduce the vector spherical harmonics to express the physical quantities in the layered Earth. This reduces the governing equations to a linear system of equations for the expansion coefficients. We then solve for the expansion coefficients analytically under the assumption (i.e. approximation) that in the mantle, the density in each layer varies as 1/ r (where r is the radial coordinate) while the gravity is constant and that in the core the gravity in each layer varies linearly in r with constant density. These approximations dramatically simplify the subsequent mathematical analysis and render closed-form expressions for the expansion coefficients. We implement our solution in a MATLAB code and perform a benchmark which shows both the correctness of our solution and the implementation. We also calculate the load Love numbers (LLNs) of the PREM Earth for different degrees of the Legendre function for both isotropic and transversely isotropic, layered mantles with different core models, demonstrating for the first time the effect of Earth anisotropy on the LLNs.

Description: Moment accumulation rate (also referred to as moment deficit rate) is a fundamental quantity for evaluating seismic hazard. The conventional approach for evaluating moment accumulation rate of creeping faults is to invert for the slip distribution from geodetic measurements, although even with perfect data these slip-rate inversions are non-unique. In this study, we show that the slip-rate versus depth inversion is not needed because moment accumulation rate can be estimated directly from surface geodetic data. We propose an integral approach that uses dense geodetic observations from Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) and the Global Positioning System (GPS) to constrain the moment accumulation rate. The moment accumulation rate is related to the integral of the product of the along-strike velocity and the distance from the fault. We demonstrate our methods by studying the Creeping Section of the San Andreas fault observed by GPS and radar interferometry onboard the ERS and ALOS satellites. Along-strike variation of the moment accumulation rate is derived in order to investigate the degree of partial locking of the Creeping Section. The central Creeping Segment has a moment accumulation rate of 0.25–3.1  x  10 15 Nm yr –1 km –1 . The upper and lower bounds of the moment accumulation rates are derived based on the statistics of the noise. Our best-fitting model indicates that the central portion of the Creeping Section is accumulating seismic moment at rates that are about 5 per cent to 23 per cent of the fully locked Carrizo segment that will eventually be released seismically. A cumulative moment budget calculation with the historical earthquake catalogue ( M  〉 5.5) since 1857 shows that the net moment deficit at present is equivalent to a M w 6.3 earthquake.

Description: The increasing availability of geophysical models of the Earth's lithosphere and mantle has generated renewed interest in computation of theoretical gravity effects at global and regional scales. At the same time, the increasing availability of gravity gradient anomalies derived from satellite measurements, such as those provided by GOCE satellite, requires mathematical methods that directly model the gravity gradient anomalies in the same reference frame as GOCE gravity gradients. Our main purpose is to interpret these anomalies in terms of source and density distribution. Numerical integration methods for calculating gravity gradient values are generally based on a mass discretization obtained by decomposing the Earth's layers into a finite number of elementary solid bodies. In order to take into account the curvature of the Earth, spherical prisms or ‘tesseroids’ have been established unequivocally as accurate computation tools for determining the gravitational effects of large-scale structures. The question which then arises from, is whether gravity calculation methods using spherical prisms remain valid when factoring in the ellipticity of the Earth. In the paper, we outline a comprehensive method to numerically compute the complete gravity field with the help of the Gauss–Legendre quadrature involving ellipsoidal shaped prisms. The assessment of this new method is conducted by comparison between the gravity gradient values of simple sources obtained by means of numerical and analytical calculations, respectively. A comparison of the gravity gradients obtained from PREM and LITHO1.0 models using spherical- and ellipsoidal-prism-based methods is also presented. Numerical results indicate that the error on gravity gradients, caused by the use of the spherical prism instead of its ellipsoidal counterpart to describe an ellipsoidally shaped Earth, is useful for a joint analysis with those deduced from GOCE satellite measurements. Provided that a suitable scaling of prism densities has been performed, the spherical approximation error at GOCE height hardly reaches 1 mE for the entire Earth's lithosphere. The error attains 6 mE at a peak for a complete modeling of the Earth, from the crust down to the internal core.

Description: This paper presents efficient numerical schemes for 3-D gravity field inversion. We propose a 2-D multilayer model to approximate a 3-D density distribution, and prove that the solution of the multilayer model will converge to the discretized 3-D solution. Differed from the conventional fast Fourier transform (FFT) based methods in which FFT is applied to the kernel, the proposed approach directly generates the Block-Toeplitz Toeplitz-Block (BTTB) structure by discretizing the multilayer model and the BTTB matrix is embedded into a Block-Circulant Circulant-Block (BCCB) matrix such that FFT can be utilized. In this approach, both regularization and optimal pre-conditioning operator can be constructed in the form of BTTB matrix. Consequently, very efficient solvers can be developed, and tremendous reduction in storage requirement and computing time can be achieved. To validate the new approach, numerical simulations using synthetic and real field data are reported, and numerical analysis is carried out for the inversion problems. Based on this study, we conclude that the proposed methods are capable of performing large-scale 3-D density inversions with a modest computing resource.

Description: In this study, we propose a method to determine dislocation Love numbers using co-seismic gravity changes from GRACE measurements. First, we present an observation equation to model GRACE observations taking into account the effect of ocean water mass redistribution. The L-curve method was used to determine the regulation parameter in the inversion of the geopotential dislocation Love numbers constrained by an a priori preliminary reference Earth (PREM) model. Then, the GRACE data error was estimated in the study area to evaluate the uncertainty of our inversion, and our inverted Love numbers are significantly deviated from the PREM ones even the uncertainty is considered. Finally, GRACE data observed for the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake ( M w  = 9.0) were used to estimate the gravity dislocation Love numbers, considering three different fault-slip models. The results show that the inverted dislocation Love numbers deviate from PREM model, especially for $k_{l1}^{32}$ and $k_{l0}^{33} - k_{l0}^{22}$ , which indicates that the inverted dislocation Love numbers can reflect the local structure that is different from the global average. This inconsistency is possibly because that the cold denser oceanic slab dives from the Japanese Trench into the softer asthenosphere, and then changes the local density here higher than the global average. And with these sets of Love numbers, we can invert for more accurate fault model and analyse focal rupture mechanism when some other earthquake in this area occurs in the future. This study provides a new approach to invert for dislocation Love numbers linked with local geological information.

Description: The intra-plate deformation of the Upper Rhine Graben (URG) located in Central Europe is investigated using geodetic measurement techniques. We present a new approach to calculate a combined velocity field from InSAR, levelling and GNSS measurements. As the expected tectonic movements in the URG area are small (less than 1 mm a –1 ), the best possible solutions for linear velocity rates from single-technique analyses are estimated in a first step. Second, we combine the velocity rates obtained from InSAR (line of sight velocity rates in ascending and descending image geometries), levelling (vertical velocity rates) and GNSS (horizontal velocity rates) using least-squares adjustment (LSA). Focusing on the Northern URG area, we analyse SAR data on four different image stacks (ERS ascending, ERS descending, Envisat ascending, Envisat descending) using the Persistent Scatterer (PS) approach. The linear velocity rates in ascending and descending image geometries, respectively, are estimated in an LSA from joint time-series analysis of ERS and Envisat data. Vertical velocity rates from levelling are obtained from a consistent adjustment of more than 40 000 measured height differences using a kinematic displacement model. Horizontal velocity rates in east and north direction are calculated from a time-series analysis of daily coordinate estimates at 76 permanently operating GNSS sites in the URG region. As the locations, at which the measurement data of PS-InSAR, levelling and GNSS reside, do not coincide, spatial interpolation is needed during several steps of the rigorous processing. We use Ordinary Kriging to interpolate from a given set of data points to the locations of interest with a special focus on the modeling and propagation of errors. The final 3-D velocity field is calculated at a 200 m grid, which carries values only close to the location of PS points, resulting in a mean horizontal and vertical precision of 0.30 and 0.13 mm a –1 , respectively. The vertical component of the combined velocity field shows a significant subsidence of about 0.5 mm a –1 in the northern part of the graben coinciding with a well-known quaternary basin structure. Horizontal displacement rates of up to 0.8 mm a –1 in southeast direction are observed outside the graben, in reasonable alignment with the average direction of maximum horizontal stress. Within the graben, the velocity directions rotate toward east in the non-subsiding part, while an opposite trend is observed in the subsiding part of the graben. The complexities of the observed velocity field are compatible to the geomechanical situation in our investigation area which is characterized by a transition from a restraining to a releasing bend setting. Glacial isostatic adjustment is another potential source influencing the observed velocity field, as well as anthropogenic signals due to mining, oil exploration and groundwater usage that have been identified in some places.

Description: The measurement of ongoing ice-mass loss and associated melt water contribution to sea-level change from regions such as West Antarctica is dependent on a combination of remote sensing methods. A key method, the measurement of changes in Earth's gravity via the GRACE satellite mission, requires a potentially large correction to account for the isostatic response of the solid Earth to ice-load changes since the Last Glacial Maximum. In this study, we combine glacial isostatic adjustment modelling with a new GPS dataset of solid Earth deformation for the southern Antarctic Peninsula to test the current understanding of ice history in this region. A sufficiently complete history of past ice-load change is required for glacial isostatic adjustment models to accurately predict the spatial variation of ongoing solid Earth deformation, once the independently-constrained effects of present-day ice mass loss have been accounted for. Comparisons between the GPS data and glacial isostatic adjustment model predictions reveal a substantial misfit. The misfit is localized on the southwestern Weddell Sea, where current ice models under-predict uplift rates by approximately 2 mm yr –1 . This under-prediction suggests that either the retreat of the ice sheet grounding line in this region occurred significantly later in the Holocene than currently assumed, or that the region previously hosted more ice than currently assumed. This finding demonstrates the need for further fieldwork to obtain direct constraints on the timing of Holocene grounding line retreat in the southwestern Weddell Sea and that GRACE estimates of ice sheet mass balance will be unreliable in this region until this is resolved.

Description: This article analyses the sequence of changes in land used for milk production on dairy farms before, during and towards the abolition of milk quotas. Using a unique dataset comprising farm level data of the Netherlands between 1971 and 2011 we estimate two duration models, analysing the time period between increases and decreases in dairy land use. The impact of milk quota, socio-economic, farm income and economic-political variables on the likelihood of a farm changing its land use are assessed. Results show that changes are highly farm specific, but that quota abolition will lead to a more dynamic dairy sector.

Description: Density is a key driver of tectonic processes, but it is a difficult property to define well in the lithosphere because the gravity method is non-unique, and because converting to density from seismic velocity models, themselves non-unique, is also highly uncertain. Here we use a new approach to define the lithospheric density field of Australia, covering from 100°E to 165°E, from 5°N to 55°S and from the crust surface to 300 km depth. A reference model was derived primarily from the recently released Australian Seismological Reference Model, and refined further using additional models of sedimentary basin thickness and crustal thickness. A novel form of finite-element method based deterministic gravity inversion was applied in geodetic coordinates, implemented within the open-source escript modelling environment. Three spatial resolutions were modelled: half-, quarter- and eighth-degree in latitude and longitude, with vertical resolutions of 5, 2.5 and 1.25 km, respectively. Parameter sweeps for the key inversion regularization parameters show that parameter selection is not scale dependent. The sweep results also show that finer resolutions are more sensitive to the uppermost crust, but less sensitive to the mid- to lower-crust and uppermost mantle than lower resolutions. All resolutions show similar sensitivity below about 100 km depth. The final density model shows that Australia's lithospheric density field is strongly layered but also has large lateral density contrasts at all depths. Within the continental crust, the structure of the middle and lower crust differs significantly from the crystalline upper crust, suggesting that the tectonic processes or events preserved in the deep crust differ from those preserved in the shallower crust. The lithospheric mantle structure is not extensively modified from the reference model, but the results reinforce the systematic difference between the density of the oceanic and continental domains, and help identify subdivisions within each. The lithospheric static pressure field was resolved in 3D from the gravity and density fields. The pressure field model also highlights the fundamental difference between the oceanic and continental domains, with the former possessing lower pressure through most of the model. Overall pressure variability is large in the upper crust (60 MPa) but reduces significantly by –30 km elevation (20–30 MPa). By –50 km elevation, thick lower-crust generates further disequilibria (25–35 MPa) that are not compensated until –125 km elevation (10–20 MPa). Beneath –125 km elevation higher pressure is observed in the continental domain, extending to the base of the model. This indicates a lithosphere that is to a large degree isostatically compensated near the base of the felsic-intermediate continental crust, and again near the theoretical base of mature oceanic lithosphere.

Description: What are second-generation (2G) biofuel technologies worth to global society? A dynamic, economic model is used to assess the impact that introducing 2G biofuels technology has on crops, livestock, biofuels, forestry, and environmental services, as well as greenhouse gas emissions. Under baseline conditions, this amounts to $64 billion and is $84 billion under the optimistic technology case, suggesting that investing in 2G technology could be appropriate. Under greenhouse gas regulation, global valuation more than doubles to $139 and $174 billion, respectively. A flat energy price scenario eliminates the value of 2G technology to society.

Description: The system of prior appropriation in the Western Unites States prioritizes property rights for water based on the establishment of beneficial use, creating a hierarchy where rights initiated first are more secure. I estimate the demand for security in water rights through their capitalization in agricultural property markets in the Yakima River Basin, a major watershed in Washington State. All water rights are satisfied in an average year, so the relative value of secure property rights is a function of water supply volatility and the costs of droughts are predominantly born by those with weak rights. In aggregate, security in water rights does not capitalize into property values at the irrigation district level; however, there is heterogeneity in the premium for secure water rights. The lack of a premium for district-level water security is robust to a variety of econometric methods to account for correlated district unobservables, and the null result produces an economically significant upper bound on the value to water security for the district. The ability for farmers to adapt to water supply volatility, as well as expectations about water markets and government infrastructure investment, are leading explanations for the lack of an aggregate premium. These explanations are supported by the pattern of heterogeneity in the water security premium.

Description: By introducing two types of zenith troposphere delay (ZTD) products in precise point positioning (PPP), we developed the ZTD-corrected PPP and the ZTD-constrained PPP, both of them reduced the PPP convergence time. Both enhanced PPP methods are examined by global empirical ZTD models and regional ZTD corrections. For global ZTD models, we verified that ZTD-corrected PPP will deviate the positioning results, while ZTD-constrained PPP could produce unbiased estimations. Therefore, the latter is utilized to study the performance of global ZTD models (ITG, GPT2w, GZTD and UNB3m). After numerous experiments, we found that the performance of ZTD models was positively related to the real ZTD accuracy, and we proposed a universal tropospheric stochastic model 2SQR(9rms) which denotes double the square of nine times ZTD rms, to constrain ZTD in PPP. The proposed model subsequently was validated by real-time static and kinematic ZTD-constrained PPP on the premise that the ZTD rms on every station was known. Compared with traditional PPP, in static PPP, the number of improved stations is increased by 15.5 per cent (ITG), 14.4 per cent (GPT2w), 11.1 per cent (GZTD) and 8.3 per cent (UNB3m). For kinematic PPP, PPP constrained by ITG model still had the best performance, the number of improved stations is increased by 14.4 per cent, after 30 min of initialization time, 13.4 cm east, 13.4 cm north and 11.7 cm up positioning accuracy was obtained, compared with 15.3 cm east, 15.3 cm north and 14.3 cm up accuracy by traditional PPP. In addition, experiments using regional ZTD corrections to enhance real-time PPP showed that both ZTD-corrected PPP and ZTD-constrained PPP can notably reduce the convergence time on the vertical component (within 15 cm).

Description: We develop a high-resolution regional gravity field model by a combination of spherical harmonics, band-limited spherical radial basis functions (SRBFs) and the residual terrain model (RTM) technique. As the main input data set, we employ a dense terrestrial gravity database (3–6 stations km –2 ), which enables gravity field modelling up to very short spatial scales. The approach is based on the remove–compute–restore methodology in which all the parts of the signal that can be modelled are removed prior to the least-squares adjustment in order to smooth the input gravity data. To this end, we utilize degree-2159 spherical harmonic models and the RTM technique using topographic models at 2 arcsec resolution. The residual short-scale gravity signal is modelled via the band-limited Shannon SRBF expanded up to degree 21 600, which corresponds to a spatial resolution of 30 arcsec. The combined model is validated against GNSS/levelling-based height anomalies, independent surface gravity data, deflections of the vertical and terrestrial vertical gravity gradients achieving an accuracy of 2.7 cm, 0.53 mGal, 0.39 arcsec and 279 E in terms of the RMS error, respectively. A key aspect of the combined approach, especially in mountainous areas, is the quality of the RTM. We therefore compare the performance of two RTM techniques within the innermost zone, the tesseroids and the polyhedron. It is shown that the polyhedron-based approach should be preferred in rugged terrain if a high-quality RTM is required. In addition, we deal with the RTM computations at points located below the reference surface of the residual terrain which is known to be a rather delicate issue.

Description: In this paper we present the potential of a new compact superconducting gravimeter (GWR iGrav) designed for groundwater monitoring. At first, 3 yr of continuous gravity data are evaluated and the performance of the instrument is investigated. With repeated absolute gravity measurements using a Micro-g Lacoste FG5, the calibration factor (–894.8 nm s –2 V –1 ) and the long-term drift of this instrument (45 nm s –2 yr –1 ) are estimated for the first time with a high precision and found to be respectively constant and linear for this particular iGrav. The low noise level performance is found similar to those of previous superconducting gravimeters and leads to gravity residuals coherent with local hydrology. The iGrav is located in a fully instrumented hydrogeophysical observatory on the Durzon karstic basin (Larzac plateau, south of France). Rain gauges and a flux tower (evapo-transpiration measurements) are used to evaluate the groundwater mass balance at the local scale. Water mass balance demonstrates that the karst is only capacitive: all the rainwater is temporarily stored in the matrix and fast transfers to the spring through fractures are insignificant in this area. Moreover, the upper part of the karst around the observatory appears to be representative of slow transfer of the whole catchment. Indeed, slow transfer estimated on the site fully supports the low-flow discharge at the only spring which represents all groundwater outflows from the catchment. In the last part of the paper, reservoir models are used to characterize the water transfer and storage processes. Particular highlights are done on the advantages of continuous gravity data (compared to repeated campaigns) and on the importance of local accurate meteorological data to limit misinterpretation of the gravity observations. The results are complementary with previous studies at the basin scale and show a clear potential for continuous gravity time-series assimilation in hydrological simulations, even on heterogeneous karstic systems.

Description: A thorough understanding of time-dependent noise in Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) position time-series is necessary for computing uncertainties in any signals found in the data. However, estimation of time-correlated noise is a challenging task and is complicated by the difficulty in separating noise from signal, the features of greatest interest in the time-series. In this paper, we investigate how linear trends affect the estimation of noise in daily GNSS position time-series. We use synthetic time-series to study the relationship between linear trends and estimates of time-correlated noise for the six most commonly cited noise models. We find that the effects of added linear trends, or conversely de-trending, vary depending on the noise model. The commonly adopted model of random walk (RW), flicker noise (FN) and white noise (WN) is the most severely affected by de-trending, with estimates of low-amplitude RW most severely biased. FN plus WN is least affected by adding or removing trends. Non-integer power-law noise estimates are also less affected by de-trending, but are very sensitive to the addition of trend when the spectral index is less than one. We derive an analytical relationship between linear trends and the estimated RW variance for the special case of pure RW noise. Overall, we find that to ascertain the correct noise model for GNSS position time-series and to estimate the correct noise parameters, it is important to have independent constraints on the actual trends in the data.

Description: We study fluctuations in the degree-2 zonal spherical harmonic coefficient of the Earth's gravity potential, C 20 , over the period 2003–2015. This coefficient is related to the Earth's oblateness and studying its temporal variations, C 20 , can be used to monitor large-scale mass movements between high and low latitude regions. We examine C 20 inferred from six different sources, including satellite laser ranging (SLR), GRACE and global geophysical fluids models. We further include estimates that we derive from measured variations in the length-of-day (LOD), from the inversion of global crustal displacements as measured by GPS, as well as from the combination of GRACE and the output of an ocean model as described by Sun et al. We apply a sequence of trend and seasonal moving average filters to the different time-series in order to decompose them into an interannual, a seasonal and an intraseasonal component. We then perform a comparison analysis for each component, and we further estimate the noise level contained in the different series using an extended version of the three-cornered-hat method. For the seasonal component, we generally obtain a very good agreement between the different sources, and except for the LOD-derived series, we find that over 90 per cent of the variance in the seasonal components can be explained by the sum of an annual and semiannual oscillation of constant amplitudes and phases, indicating that the seasonal pattern is stable over the considered time period. High consistency between the different estimates is also observed for the intraseasonal component, except for the solution from GRACE, which is known to be affected by a strong tide-like alias with a period of about 161 d. Estimated interannual components from the different sources are generally in agreement with each other, although estimates from GRACE and LOD present some discrepancies. Slight deviations are further observed for the estimate from the geophysical models, likely to be related to the omission of polar ice and groundwater changes in the model combination we use. On the other hand, these processes do not seem to play an important role at seasonal and shorter timescales, as the sum of modelled atmospheric, oceanic and hydrological effects effectively explains the observed C 20 variations at those scales. We generally obtain very good results for the solution from SLR, and we confirm that this well-established technique accurately tracks changes in C 20 . Good agreement is further observed for the estimate from the GPS inversion, showing that this indirect method is successful in capturing fluctuations in C 20 on scales ranging from intra- to interannual. Obtaining accurate estimates from LOD, however, remains a challenging task and more reliable models of atmospheric wind fields are needed in order to obtain high-quality C 20 , in particular at the seasonal scale. The combination of GRACE data and the output of an ocean model appears to be a promising approach, particularly since corresponding C 20 is not affected by tide-like aliases, and generally gives better results than the solution from GRACE, which still seems to be of rather poor quality.