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  • DFG Senatskommission für Ozeanographie  (1)
  • Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI)  (1)
  • NOAA/National Marine Fisheries Service  (1)
  • 1
    Düsseldorf: Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaftliches Institut (WSI)
    Publication Date: 2018-06-27
    Description: In economics and other social sciences, complex processes are often represented by numerical models of reality which more or less well reflect behavioral relationships and interactions. Such attempts are the subject of a lecture course 'Mathematical Theory of Democracy' by the author at the Faculty of Economics of the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. One new result in this field is presented here in the form of a statistical test to decide whether a political party or coalition of parties represents a majority of the population. For this purpose, party or coalition positions on a sample of policy issues, like introduction of a legal nationwide minimum wage, privatization of railways, and others, are compared with the results of public opinion polls on the same issues. The test is based on estimating the statistical significance of the coincidence observed (i.e. how likely is the coincidence by chance) to the end of accepting or rejecting the representativeness hypothesis. The test is developed for single parties and coalitions of two or three parties. It is illustrated with an estimation of representativeness of five major German parties and their potential coalitions basing on the official party manifestos published before the German parliamentary elections 2009 and on relevant polls of public opinion.
    Description: In der Ökonomie und den anderen Sozialwissenschaften wird immer wieder versucht, komplexe Prozesse der Wirklichkeit durch numerische Modelle abzubilden - was mit Abstraktionen für z. B. Verhaltens- und Wirkungsrelationen mehr oder weniger gut gelingt. Solche Versuche sind Gegenstand einer Vorlesungsreihe 'Mathematische Theorie der Demokratie' des Autors an der Wirtschaftswissenschaftlichen Fakultät des Karlsruhe Institut für Technologie. Ein neues Ergebnis in diesem Bereich wird hier vorgelegt in Form eines statistischen Tests, der entscheiden soll, ob eine politische Partei oder eine Parteienkoalition repräsentativ im Sinn der Bevölkerungsmehrheit agiert. Zu diesem Zweck wird die Übereinstimmung von Parteien- oder Koalitionspositionen mit Ergebnissen von Meinungsumfragen in der Bevölkerung verglichen, etwa zur Einführung eines bundesweiten gesetzlichen Mindestlohns oder der Privatisierung des Schienenverkehrs und anderem mehr. Der Test basiert auf der Einschätzung der statistischen Signifikanz der beobachteten Übereinstimmung (d.h. wie wahrscheinlich ist eine nur zufällige Übereinstimmung), um die Hypothese von der Repräsentativität der Politik zu akzeptieren oder abzulehnen. Die Studie spielt die Repräsentativität von einzelnen Parteien sowie von Zweier- und Dreier-Koalitionen durch. Darunter ist auch die Konstellation der fünf großen deutschen Parteien und ihrer potentiell möglichen Koalitionen auf der Basis der Bundestagswahl von 2009.
    Keywords: C12 ; C44 ; C63 ; D71 ; D72 ; ddc:330 ; mathematical theory of democracy ; statistical test ; parties ; coalitions ; representativeness ; Bernoulli matrices ; sums of random vectors ; Demokratie ; Politische Partei ; Öffentliche Meinung ; Wahlverhalten ; Deutschland
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
    Type: doc-type:workingPaper
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  • 2
    DFG Senatskommission für Ozeanographie
    In:  METEOR-Berichte, M86/5 . DFG Senatskommission für Ozeanographie, Bremen, 134 pp.
    Publication Date: 2018-04-27
    Description: Cruise M86/5 aimed at collecting data from potential fluid dewatering sites located in the deep-sea region of the western part of the Gulf of Cadiz and the adjacent deep sea plain. Previous work on mud volcanoes (cruises SO175 and MSM1/3) located on the accretionary wedge in the Gulf of Cadiz showed that mud volcano fluids are typically sourced at several km depth below the seafloor. In addition, the geochemical composition of fluids from the deepest mud volcano in this area which is located on a west-east trending transform lineament (SWIM1) indicated that these fluids are typical for having been altered by the reaction with oceanic crust. This implies that there is active flow connecting the oceanic basement and the seafloor. To date, such kind of hydrothermal circulation is only known for relatively young oceanic crust (〈60 Ma). Hence, the existence of a hydrological connection between old, sedimented oceanic crust and the seafloor is a phenomenon, which essentially has not been investigated in the past, and may represent a (missing) link between hot vents at mid-ocean ridges and cold seeps at continental margins. On the cruise, we followed an interdisciplinary approach characterized by extensive geochemical sampling in the water column and the sediment, heat flow measurements, and detailed mapping with AUV and ship-based hydroacoustic systems. We mainly investigated selected sites with conspicuous backscatter anomalies recorded on previous cruises along the SWIM1 lineament: (i) within the transition between the accretionary prism and the Horseshoe Abyssal Plain and (ii) on seafloor highs within the Horseshoe Abyssal Plain itself. The geotectonic environment in both sections is completely different from the situation on the accretionary wedge, where numerous mud volcanoes were detected on previous cruises. Within the transition zone three new mud volcanoes were discovered and extensively sampled during M86/5. Typal chemoautotrophic organisms were found here together with conspicuous methane anomalies in der water column. Preliminary pore water analyses show that the fluids indicate a deep origin, but show distinctive differences to those found on the mud volcanoes on the wedge. Future analyses will show, if this phenomenon is - as hypothesized - due to decreasing sediment thickness with increasing westward distance from the wedge, and hence decreasing sediment-water interaction overprinting the original fluid composition. On the seafloor highs along the SWIM1 lineament in the Horseshoe Abyssal Plain no seeps or mud volcanoes were discovered. However, the lineament seems to be active in terms of fluid flow as indicated by pore water and heat flow anomalies as compared to values measured off the lineament. Overall, the major goal of the cruise could be fulfilled: fluid seeps related to active faults were discovered in a new geotectonic environment. The overall significance in terms of fluid transport in old oceanic crust and/or the role of deeply-rooted fault systems needs to be further addressed in subsequent studies.
    Type: Report , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: text
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  • 3
    NOAA/National Marine Fisheries Service
    Publication Date: 2014-03-07
    Description: The National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) Fisheries Sampling Branch (FSB) collects, maintains, and distributes data for scientific and management purposes in the northwest Atlantic Ocean. FSB manages three separate but related observer programs: the Northeast Fisheries Observer Program (NEFOP), the Industry Funded Scallop (IFS) Observer Program, and the At Sea Monitoring (ASM) Program. For the purposes of this manual, “observers” refers to any observer/monitor working for the FSB. In 2011, FSB trained and deployed over 200 observers, provided coverage on a variety of fisheries, and completed over 15,000 sea days. Observed trips are required under many of the region's fishery management plans, and for some fisheries by other federal laws and authorities such as Amendment 16 and Framework 44, Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Act, Marine Mammal Protection Act, the Endangered Species Act, the and the Sustainable Fisheries Act. The purpose of this guide is to provide FSB observers, as well as end users of NEFSC Observer Program data, with a detailed description of each data field collected. In addition to this manual, the NEFSC Observer Program Biological Sampling and Catch Estimation Manual provides summaries and tables intended to enable observers to quickly determine the correct sampling protocols and methods while at sea. This manual represents a revision of the data forms, collection procedures, and protocols described in the 1996 NEFSC Observer Program Manual. For documentation of other changes see Documentation of changes made to the NEFSC Fisheries Observer Program Manual, 2013.
    Keywords: Fisheries ; Management ; Policies
    Repository Name: Aquatic Commons
    Type: Monograph or Serial Issue , NonPeerReviewed
    Format: application/pdf
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