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  • Articles  (362)
  • J24  (239)
  • J31
  • Educación
  • Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)  (347)
  • La Paz: Institute for Advanced Development Studies (INESAD)
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  • Articles  (362)
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  • 1
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: The social and the private returns to education differ when education can increase productivity, and also be used to signal productivity. We show how instrumental variables can be used to separately identify and estimate the social and private returns to education within the employer learning framework of Farber and Gibbons [1996] and Altonji and Pierret [2001]. What an instrumental variable identifies depends crucially on whether the instrument is hidden from, or observed by, the employers. If the instrument is hidden then it identifies the private returns to education, but if the instrument is observed by employers then it identifies the social returns to education. Interestingly, however, among experienced workers the instrument identifies the social returns to education, regardless of whether or not it is hidden. We operationalize this approach using local variation in compulsory schooling laws across multiple cohorts in Norway. Our preferred estimates indicate that the social return to an additional year of education is 5%, and the private internal rate of return, aggregating the returns over the life-cycle, is 7.2%. Thus, 70% of the private returns to education can be attributed to education raising productivity and 30% to education signaling workers' ability.
    Keywords: J24 ; J31 ; D83 ; ddc:330 ; signaling ; human capital ; employer learning ; instruments
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 2
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: Labor market opportunities and wages may be unfair for various reasons, and how workers respond to different types of unfairness can have major economic consequences. Using an online labor platform, where workers engage in an individual task for a piece-rate wage, we investigate the causal effect of neutral and gender-discriminatory unfair chances on labor supply. We randomize workers into treatments where we control relative pay and chances to receive a low or a high wage. Chances can be fair, unfair based on an unspecified source, or unfair based on gender discrimination. Unequal pay reduces labor supply of low-wage workers, irrespective of whether the low wage is the result of fair or unfair chances. Importantly, the source of unfair chances matters. When a low wage is the result of gender-discriminatory chances, workers matched with a high-wage worker substantially reduce their labor supply compared to the case of equal low wages (-22%). This decrease is twice as large as those induced by low wages due to fair chances or unfair chances coming from an unspecified source. In addition, exploratory analysis suggests that in response to unequal pay, low-wage male workers reduce labor supply irrespective of the source of inequality, whereas low-wage female workers reduce labor supply only if unequal pay is due to gender-discriminatory chances. Our results concerning gender discrimination indicate a new reason for the lower labor supply of women, which is a prominent explanation for the gender gap in earnings.
    Keywords: D90 ; E24 ; J22 ; J31 ; J71 ; M50 ; ddc:330 ; labor supply ; wage inequality ; procedural fairness ; gender discrimination
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 3
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: We analyze inequality and mobility across generations in a dynastic economy. Nurture, in terms of bequests and the schooling investment into the next generation, is observable but the draw of nature in terms of ability is hidden, stochastic and persistent across generations. We calibrate the model to U.S. data to illustrate mechanisms through which nurture and nature affect mobility and the transmission of income inequality across generations, thus complementing the vast empirical literature. To provide a benchmark for the observed status quo, we solve for the social optimum in which the planner weighs dynasties equally and chooses optimal tax schedules subject to incentive compatibility. Analyzing the transition from the calibrated steady state to this social optimum, we find that insurance against intergenerational ability risk increases on the transition path by making welfare of family dynasties more dependent on nurture relative to nature. The insurance comes at the cost of less social mobility. We compare welfare in the social optimum and economies with a simple history-independent tax and subsidy system.
    Keywords: E24 ; H21 ; I24 ; J24 ; J62 ; ddc:330 ; human capital ; schooling ; bequests ; asymmetric information ; intergenerational mobility ; inequality
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 4
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: Empirical findings suggest a positive correlation between inequality and social immobility, a phenomenon coined the Gatsby curve. However, complete explanations of the phenomenon have not yet been proposed. This paper answers two questions: What are Gatsby curves? When do they exist? We build a theoretical environment in which parental investment and education improve the economic prospects of children. Gatsbian economies and Gatsby curves are formally defined, and we characterize the conditions under which they will arise. We show that an economy may go from being Gatsbian to non-Gatsbian. Finally, we show that the better network of relations of those with high-paying jobs may also generate a Gatsbian economy.
    Keywords: D31 ; H52 ; J31 ; J62 ; ddc:330 ; intergenerational mobility ; income inequality ; education
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 5
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: This article reviews the recent literature in economics on small-scale entrepreneurship ("microentrepreneurship") in low-income countries. Major themes in the literature include the determinants and consequences of joining the formal sector; the impacts of access to credit and other financial services; the impacts of business training; barriers to hiring; and the distinction between self-employment by necessity and self-employment as a calling. The article devotes special attention to unique issues that arise with female entrepreneurship.
    Keywords: L26 ; J16 ; J24 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 6
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: We analyze the relationship between cognitive ability and bunching in the context of a large and salient kink point of the Swedish income tax schedule. Using population-wide register data from the Swedish military enlistment and administrative tax records, we find that high-ability individuals bunch more than low-ability individuals. This ability gradient is stronger for the self-employed, but is also present among wage earners. We also use high-school GPA and math grades to analyze gender differences, finding a stronger ability gradient among men.
    Keywords: H21 ; H24 ; J22 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; bunching ; ability ; skills ; complexity ; optimal taxation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 7
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: Does removing the constraints of time and place of work increase the utility of workers and firms? We design a randomized experiment on a sample of workers in a large Italian company: workers are randomly divided into a treated group that engages in flexible space and time job (which we call "smart-working") one day per week for 9 months and a control group that continues to work traditionally. By comparing the treated and control workers, we find causal evidence that the flexibility of smart-working increases the productivity of workers and improves their well-being and work-life balance. We also observe that the effects are stronger for women and that there are no significant spillover effects within workers of a team.
    Keywords: J16 ; J22 ; J24 ; L20 ; M54 ; ddc:330 ; randomized control trial ; productivity ; work-life balance ; well-being
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 8
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: The structure and functioning of the market of higher education in the United States possess distinctive if not puzzling features such as the wide spectrum of institutional arrangements and sources of funding, stark segmentation in levels of selectivity and instructional resources, and high variance in tuition pricing across and within institutions, including price discrimination based on merit and ability to pay. At the same time, many fundamental questions, including what defines the quality of higher education and explains its (growing) cost continue to be debated. The Chapter surveys theoretical analyses addressing this range of issues.
    Keywords: I21 ; I22 ; I23 ; D40 ; J24 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 9
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: Due to the COVID-19 crisis and the related "social distancing" measures, working from home (WfH) has suddenly become a crucial lever of economic activity. This paper combines survey and administrative data to compute measures for the feasibility of working from home among German employees. Breaking down the data by occupation, region, industry, and employee characteristics, we document considerable variation in the potential to WfH across all dimensions. We find that WfH is feasible for roughly 56 percent of the overall German workforce, while less than half of this potential was exploited in the pre-pandemic economy.
    Keywords: D24 ; J22 ; J24 ; O33 ; R12 ; ddc:330 ; COVID-19 ; working from home ; Germany
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 10
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: Rising inequality in the United States has raised concerns about potentially widening gaps in educational achievement by socio-economic status (SES). Using assessments from LTT-NAEP, Main-NAEP, TIMSS, and PISA that are psychometrically linked over time, we trace trends in achievement for U.S. student cohorts born between 1954 and 2001. Achievement gaps between the top and bottom quartiles of the SES distribution have been large and remarkably constant for a near half century. These unwavering gaps have not been offset by improved achievement levels, which have risen at age 14 but have remained unchanged at age 17 for the past quarter century.
    Keywords: H40 ; I24 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; student achievement ; inequality ; socio-economic status ; United States ; NAEP ; TIMSS ; PISA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 11
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: We analyze cooperation within a company setting in order to study the relationship between cooperative attitudes and financial as well as non-financial rewards. In total, 910 employees of a large software company participate in an incentivized online experiment. We observe high levels of cooperation and the typical conditional contribution patterns in a modified public goods game. When linking experiment and company record data, we observe that cooperative attitudes of employees do not pay off in terms of financial rewards within the company. Rather, cooperative employees receive non-financial benefits such as recognition or friendship as the main reward medium. In contrast to most studies in the experimental laboratory, sustained levels of cooperation in our company setting relate to non-financial values of cooperation rather than solely to financial incentives.
    Keywords: C93 ; D23 ; H41 ; J31 ; J32 ; M52 ; ddc:330 ; cooperation ; social dilemma ; field experiment ; company
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 12
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: We study the long-term effects of a randomized intervention targeting children's socio-emotional skills. The classroom-based intervention for primary school children has positive impacts that persist for over a decade. Treated children become more likely to complete academic high school and enroll in university. Two mechanisms drive these results. Treated children show fewer ADHD symptoms: they are less impulsive and less disruptive. They also attain higher grades, but they do not score higher on standardized tests. The long-term effects on educational attainment thus appear to be driven by changes in socio-emotional skills rather than cognitive skills.
    Keywords: C93 ; I21 ; I24 ; I26 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; socio-emotional skills ; randomized intervention ; child development ; school tracking
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 13
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: We use the most recent wave of the German Qualifications and Career Survey and reveal a substantial wage premium in a Mincer regression for workers performing their job from home. The premium persists within narrowly defined jobs and after controlling for workplace activities and accounts to more then 10%. In a next step, we provide evidence on substantial regional variation in the share of jobs that can be done from home across NUTS2 districts in Germany. Our results suggest that the COVID-19 crisis might affect already poorer regions more heavily as a lower share of workers can work from home there. Hence, looking at regional disparities in terms of different types of occupations is central for policy makers in choosing the right economic policies to mitigate the consequences of the crisis.
    Keywords: J31 ; J22 ; J61 ; R10 ; ddc:330 ; working from home ; COVID-19 ; regional disparities ; home office ; BIBB-BAuA
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 14
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: This article analyzes the effect of public policy intervention in the production of health capital on fertility, private investment in children's health and education and human capital accumulation. I have used a growth model with endogenous fertility, in which the usual parental trade-off between the quantity and quality of their children is augmented with an additional factor that affects children's human capital, which is health. I analyze the overall society-wide effect of public policy intervention and derive a condition that determines precisely whether public provision of free health services increases or decreases the average level of human capital in the society.
    Keywords: D30 ; I12 ; J10 ; J13 ; J24 ; O10 ; O40 ; ddc:330 ; fertility ; health capital ; human capital ; growth
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 15
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-04-30
    Description: We investigate how an artist's death impacts on the price of her artwork by estimating individual death effects of a sample of famous visual artists who died between 1985 and 2010. Using data from art auctions that took place in a narrow window around the artists' death, we apply various econometric methods, including regression discontinuity and differences-in-differences strategies. The heterogeneity in death effects across artists turns out to be substantial and can, in large part, be explained by age and reputation at death. This result is robust to various specifications and measures of reputation. We present as an exacting test the case of Keith Haring, whose terminal illness was communicated by him well in advance.
    Keywords: I20 ; J24 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; art auction prices ; death effect ; reputation ; differences in differences ; regression discontinuity
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 16
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-05-14
    Description: Employment contributes to reduce the risk of poverty. Through a randomized controlled trial, we evaluate the impact of a conditional cash transfer program (CCT) to low-income families with dependent children on household members' labor supply. The attendance of labor-market-oriented mentoring courses constitutes the condition to obtain the transfer. One year after admission to the program, fathers assigned to the CCT program are more likely to work (+14 percent) than fathers assigned to an unconditional cash transfer program or to a pure control group. No effect arises for mothers. Increased paternal investments in activities enhancing labor market opportunities and improved family networks seem to explain the results.
    Keywords: I10 ; I20 ; J24 ; I31 ; ddc:330 ; conditional cash transfers ; poverty ; household labor supply ; mentoring courses
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 17
    Publication Date: 2020-05-14
    Description: We investigate the short- and long-term effects of economic conditions at high-school graduation as a source of exogenous variation in the labor-market opportunities of potential college entrants. Exploiting business cycle fluctuations across birth cohorts for 28 developed countries, we find that bad economic conditions at high-school graduation increase college enrollment and graduation. They also affect outcomes in later life, increasing cognitive skills and improving labor-market success. Outcomes are affected only by the economic conditions at high-school graduation, but not by those during earlier or later years. Recessions at high-school graduation narrow the gender gaps in numeracy skills and labor-market success.
    Keywords: I23 ; I21 ; J24 ; E32 ; ddc:330 ; business cycle ; college enrollment ; skill formation ; labor-market outcomes ; PIAAC ; gender gap
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 18
    Publication Date: 2020-05-14
    Description: We present real time survey evidence from the UK, US and Germany showing that the labor market impacts of COVID-19 differ considerably across countries. Employees in Germany, which has a well-established short-time work scheme, are substantially less likely to be affected by the crisis. Within countries, the impacts are highly unequal and exacerbate existing inequalities. Workers in alternative work arrangements and in occupations in which only a small share of tasks can be done from home are more likely to have reduced their hours, lost their jobs and suffered falls in earnings. Less educated workers and women are more affected by the crisis.
    Keywords: J21 ; J22 ; J24 ; J33 ; J63 ; ddc:330 ; recessions ; inequality ; labor market ; unemployment ; coronavirus
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 19
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-04-08
    Description: Private information is at the heart of many economic activities. For decades, economists have assumed that individuals are willing to misreport private information if this maximizes their material payoff. We combine data from 90 experimental studies in economics, psychology and sociology, and show that, in fact, people lie surprisingly little. We then formalize a wide range of potential explanations for the observed behavior, identify testable predictions that can distinguish between the models and conduct new experiments to do so. Our empirical evidence suggests that a preference for being seen as honest and a preference for being honest are the main motivations for truth-telling.
    Description: This Version: March 2019
    Keywords: D03 ; D82 ; H26 ; I13 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; private information ; honesty ; truth-telling ; lying ; meta study
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 20
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-06-22
    Description: This paper studies the price and employment response of firms to the introduction of a nation-wide minimum wage in Germany. In line with previous studies, the estimated employment effect is only modestly negative and statistically insignificant. In contrast, affected firms increased prices much more frequently. The price effect is prevalent across different sectors of the economy including manufacturing and is thus not limited to low wage industries. I document that speed and degree of price pass-through were high and firms rolled over the lion’s share of the costs generated by the minimum wage to their customers. Consistent with the role of price pass-through, I find considerable heterogeneity in firms’ responses to the minimum wage depending on their own business expectations, product market competition, and local labor market conditions.
    Keywords: J38 ; J08 ; E31 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; price pass-through ; heterogeneity in minimum wage effects ; firm data ; Germany
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 21
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-06-22
    Description: People rely on their experiences when making important decisions. In making these decisions, individuals may be significantly influenced by the timing of their experiences. Using administrative data, we study whether the order in which students are assigned courses affects the choice of college major. We use a natural experiment at the United States Military Academy in which students are randomly assigned to certain courses either during or after the semester in which they are required to select their college major. We find that when students are assigned to a course in the same semester as they select a major, they are over 100 percent more likely to choose a major that corresponds to that course. Despite low switching costs, approximately half of the effect persists through graduation. Our results demonstrate that the timing of when students are assigned courses has a large and persistent effect on college major choice. We explore several potential mechanisms for these results and find that students' initial major choice best fits a framework we develop that incorporates salience and availability. Furthermore, our results suggest that once students select a major, they are less likely to switch majors than the standard model of economic choice predicts. Instead, students' decision to remain in a major is more consistent with status quo bias.
    Keywords: D03 ; I23 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; availability ; college major
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 22
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-06-22
    Description: We study how different demographic groups respond to incentives by comparing their performance in “high” and “low” stakes situations. The high stakes situation is the GRE examination and the low stakes situation is a voluntary experimental section of the GRE. We find that Males exhibit a larger drop in performance between the high and low stakes examinations than females, and Whites exhibit a larger drop in performance compared to minorities. Differences between high and low stakes tests are partly explained by the fact that males and whites exert lower effort in low stakes tests compared to females and minorities.
    Keywords: C93 ; I23 ; I24 ; J15 ; J16 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; high stakes ; low stakes ; GRE ; incentives ; experiment ; performance ; gender gap ; race gap
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 23
    Publication Date: 2019-06-22
    Description: For-profit providers are becoming an increasingly important fixture of US higher education markets. Students who attend for-profit institutions take on more educational debt, have worse labor market outcomes, and are more likely to default than students attending similarly-selective public schools. Because for-profits tend to serve students from more disadvantaged backgrounds, it is important to isolate the causal effect of for-profit enrollment on educational and labor market outcomes. We approach this problem using a novel instrument combined with more comprehensive data on student outcomes than has been employed in prior research. Our instrument leverages the interaction between changes in the demand for college due to labor demand shocks and the local supply of for-profit schools. We compare enrollment and postsecondary outcome changes across areas that experience similar labor demand shocks but that have different latent supply of for-profit institutions. The first-stage estimates show that students are much more likely to enroll in a for-profit institution for a given labor demand change when there is a higher supply of such schools in the base period. Among four-year students, for-profit enrollment leads to more loans, higher loan amounts, an increased likelihood of borrowing, an increased risk of default and worse labor market outcomes. Two-year for-profit students also take out more loans, have higher default rates and lower earnings. But, they are more likely to graduate and to earn over $25,000 per year (the median earnings of high school graduates). Finally, we show that for-profit entry and exit decisions are at most weakly responsive to labor demand shocks. Our results point to low returns to for-profit enrollment that have important implications for public investments in higher education as well as how students make postsecondary choices.
    Keywords: I23 ; I26 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; postsecondary education ; for-profits schools ; student loans ; default ; returns to education
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 24
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-06-22
    Description: We study optimal employment contracts for present-biased employees who can conduct on-the-job search. Presuming that firms cannot offer long-term contracts, we find that individuals who are naive about their present bias will actually be better off than sophisticated or time-consistent individuals. Moreover, they search more, which partially counteracts the inefficiencies caused by their present bias.
    Keywords: D21 ; D83 ; D90 ; J31 ; J32 ; ddc:330 ; present bias ; on-the-job search
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 25
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-06-22
    Description: We study the implications of robot adoption at the level of individual firms using a rich panel data-set of Spanish manufacturing firms over a 27-year period (1990-2016). We focus on three central questions: (1) Which firms adopt robots? (2) What are the labor market effects of robot adoption at the firm level? (3) How does firm heterogeneity in robot adoption affect the industry equilibrium? To address these questions, we look at our data through the lens of recent attempts in the literature to formalize the implications of robot technology. As for the first question, we establish robust evidence that ex-ante larger and more productive firms are more likely to adopt robots, while ex-ante more skill-intensive firms are less likely to do so. As for the second question, we find that robot adoption generates substantial output gains in the vicinity of 20-25% within four years, reduces the labor cost share by 5-7%-points, and leads to net job creation at a rate of 10%. These results are robust to controlling for non-random selection into robot adoption through a difference-in-differences approach combined with a propensity score reweighting estimator. Finally, we reveal substantial job losses in firms that do not adopt robots, and a productivity-enhancing reallocation of labor across firms, away from non-adopters, and toward adopters.
    Keywords: D22 ; F14 ; J24 ; O14 ; ddc:330 ; automation ; robots ; firms ; productivity ; technology
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 26
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-06-22
    Description: Apprenticeship systems are essentially based on the voluntary participation of firms that provide (and usually also finance) training positions, often incurring considerable net training costs. One potential, yet under-researched explanation for this behavior is that firms act in accordance with the norms and expectations they face with in the local labor market in which they operate. In this paper, we focus on the Swiss apprenticeship system and ask whether local norms towards the private, rather than the public, provision of training influence firms’ decisions to offer apprenticeship positions. In line with this hypothesis, we find that the training incidence is higher in communities characterized by a stronger norm towards the private provision of training, which we measure using local results from two national-level plebiscites that explicitly dealt with the role of the state in the context of the apprenticeship system. This finding turns out to be robust to a series of alternative specifications and robustness checks, as well as to an instrumental-variable strategy that tackles the issue of potential endogeneity of normative attitudes.
    Keywords: D22 ; D63 ; H41 ; I22 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; public goods ; private provision of training ; social norms ; normative attitudes towards the role of the state ; vocational education and training ; apprenticeship training
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-06-22
    Description: This paper establishes new evidence on the cyclical behaviour of household income risk in Great Britain and assesses the role of social insurance policy in mitigating against this risk. We address these issues using the British Household Panel Survey (1991-2008) by decomposing stochastic idiosyncratic income into its transitory, persistent and fixed components. We then estimate how income risk, measured by the variance and the skewness of the probability distribution of shocks to the persistent component, varies between expansions and contractions of the aggregate economy. We first find that the volatility and left-skewness of these shocks is a-cyclical and counter-cyclical respectively. The latter implies a higher probability of receiving large negative income shocks in contractions. We also find that while social insurance (tax-benefits) policy reduces the levels of both measures of risk as well as the counter-cyclicality of the asymmetry measure, the mitigation effects work mainly via benefits.
    Keywords: D31 ; E24 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; household income risk ; social insurance policy ; aggregate fluctuations
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-08-22
    Description: This paper exploits a short-lived cooperation program between the U.S.S.R. and China, which led to the construction of 156 “Million-Rouble plants” in the 1950s. We isolate exogenous variation in location decisions due to the relative position of allied and enemy airbases and study the long-run impact of these factories on local economic activity. While the “156” program accelerated industrialization in treated counties until the end of the command-economy era, this significant productivity advantage fully eroded in the subsequent period. We explore the nature of local spillovers responsible for this pattern, and provide evidence that treated counties are overspecialized and far less innovative. There is a large concentration of establishments along the production chain of the Million-Rouble plants, which limits technological spillovers across industries.
    Keywords: R11 ; R53 ; J24 ; N95 ; ddc:330 ; industrial clusters ; agglomeration economies ; specialization
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-08-22
    Description: We investigate the impact of robot adoption on electoral outcomes in 14 Western European countries, between 1993 and 2016. We employ both official election results at the district level and individual-level voting data, combined with party ideology scores from the Manifesto Project. We measure exposure to automation both at the regional level, based on the ex-ante industry specialization of each region, and at the individual level, based on individual characteristics and pre-sample employment patterns in the region of residence. We instrument robot adoption in each country using the pace of robot adoption in other countries. Higher exposure to robot adoption is found to increase support for nationalist and radical-right parties. Unveiling some potential transmission channels, higher robot exposure at the individual level leads to poorer perceived economic conditions and well-being, lower satisfaction with the government and democracy, and a reduction in perceived political self-efficacy.
    Keywords: D72 ; J23 ; J24 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; automation ; nationalism ; radical right
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-08-22
    Description: Technological progress and trade potentially affect wages and employment. Technological progress can make jobs obsolete and trade can increase unemployment in import competing sectors. Empirical evidence suggests that both causes are important to explain recent labour market developments in many OECD countries. Both causes are often mentioned in tandem, but the relative contribution of each cause is less clear. This study presents a meta-analysis to shed light on the relative contribution of technological progress and trade in recent labour market developments and allows us to identify the winners and losers of automation and globalization. Using a sample of 77 studies and 1158 estimates, we find that both effects are important. Automation is beneficial at the firm level, and is more likely to displace low-skilled employment. Trade is more likely to benefit high-skilled employment and affects industry negatively. Somewhat surprisingly, given the consensus in the literature, automation has a positive effect for estimates considering the period before 1995, and trade a negative effect. We also find some evidence of publication biases.
    Keywords: F23 ; J31 ; J63 ; O11 ; ddc:330 ; labour markets ; technological progress ; trade ; meta-study
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-08-22
    Description: In a previous paper, we have shown that academic rank is largely unrelated to tutorial teaching effectiveness. In this paper, we further explore the effectiveness of the lowest-ranked instructors: students. We confirm that students are almost as effective as senior instructors, and we produce results informative on the effects of expanding the use of student instructors. We conclude that hiring moderately more student instructors would not harm students, but exclusively using them will likely negatively affect student outcomes. Given how inexpensive student instructors are, however, such a policy might still be worth it.
    Keywords: I21 ; I24 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; student instructors ; university ; teacher performance
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-08-22
    Description: What are the earnings and employment losses that workers suffer when demand for their occupations declines? To answer this question we combine forecasts on occupational employment changes, which allow us to identify unanticipated declines; administrative data on the population of Swedish workers, spanning several decades; and a highly detailed occupational classification. We find that, compared to similar workers, those facing occupational decline lost about 2-5 percent of mean cumulative earnings from 1986-2013. But workers at the bottom of their occupations’ initial earnings distributions suffered considerably larger losses. These earnings losses are partly accounted for by reduced employment, and increased unemployment and retraining.
    Keywords: O33 ; J24 ; J62 ; ddc:330 ; technological change ; occupations ; inequality
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-08-22
    Description: About 1.4 million refugees and irregular migrants arrived in Europe in 2015 and 2016. We model how refugees and irregular migrants are self-selected. Using unique datasets from the International Organization for Migration and Gallup World Polls, we provide the first large-scale evidence on reasons to emigrate, and the self-selection and sorting of refugees and irregular migrants for multiple origin and destination countries. Refugees and female irregular migrants are positively self-selected with respect to education, while male irregular migrants are not. We also find that both male and female migrants from major conflict countries are positively self-selected in terms of their predicted income. For countries with minor or no conflict, migrant and non-migrant men do not differ in terms of their income distribution, while women who emigrate are positively self-selected. We also analyze how border controls affect destination country choice.
    Keywords: J15 ; J24 ; O15 ; ddc:330 ; refugees ; self-selection ; human capital ; predicted income
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-08-22
    Description: This paper uses a historical setting to study when religion can be a barrier to the diffusion of knowledge and economic development, and through which mechanism. I focus on 19th-century Catholicism and analyze a crucial phase of modern economic growth, the Second Industrial Revolution (1870-1914) in France. In this period, technology became skill-intensive, leading to the introduction of technical education in primary schools. At the same time, the Catholic Church was promoting a particularly antiscientific program and opposed the adoption of a technical curriculum. Using data collected from primary and secondary sources, I exploit preexisting variation in the intensity of Catholicism (i.e., religiosity) among French districts and cantons. I show that, despite a stable spatial distribution of religiosity over time, more religious locations had lower economic development only during the Second Industrial Revolution, but not before. Schooling appears to be the key mechanism: more religious areas saw a slower introduction of the technical curriculum and instead a push for religious education. Religious education, in turn, was negatively associated with industrial development about 10 to15 years later, when school-aged children entered the labor market, and this negative relationship was more pronounced in skill-intensive industrial sectors.
    Keywords: J24 ; N13 ; Z12 ; ddc:330 ; human capital ; religiosity ; industrialization
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  • 35
    Publication Date: 2019-12-04
    Description: This paper establishes the presence of a substantial gender gap in the relationship between state legislature service and the subsequent pursuit of a Congressional career. The empirical approach uses a sample of mixed-gender elections to compare the differential political career progression of women who closely win versus closely lose a state legislature election relative to an analogous impact for men who closely win or lose a state legislature election. We find that the effect of serving a state legislative term on the likelihood of running for a Congressional seat is twice as large for men as women, and its effect on winning a Congressional race is five times larger for men than women. These gaps emerge early in legislators’ careers, widen over time, and are seen alongside a higher propensity for female state legislators to recontest state legislature seats. This gender gap in advancing to Congress among state legislators is not generated by gender differences in previously accumulated political experience, political party affiliation, or constituency characteristics. After investigating several explanations, we conclude that the gender gap in political career progression is consistent with the existence of a glass ceiling in politics.
    Keywords: D72 ; J16 ; J24 ; J71 ; ddc:330 ; gender gap ; politicians ; discrimination
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-12-04
    Description: This paper studies the relationship between changes in occupational employment, occupational wages, and rising overall wage inequality. Using long-running administrative panel data with detailed occupation codes, we first document that in all occupations, entrants and leavers earn lower wages than stayers. This empirical fact suggests substantial skill selection effects that are negative for growing occupations and positive for shrinking ones. We develop and estimate a model for prices paid per unit of skill in occupations, which incorporates occupation-specific skill accumulation over the career and endogenous switching across many occupations. Our results shed light on two important puzzles in prior literature. First, consistent with leading explanations for occupational employment changes, price and employment growth are positively related. Strong counteracting skill changes along the lines of our new empirical fact explain why occupational wages are unrelated to employment growth. Second, skill prices establish a long-suspected quantitative connection between occupational changes and the surge in wage inequality.
    Keywords: J21 ; J23 ; J24 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; skill prices ; selection effects ; multidimensional skill accumulation ; occupational employment and wages ; administrative panel data ; wage inequality
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-12-04
    Description: Using an equilibrium model of inter-linked frictional labour and marriage markets, we establish the existence of male marriage premium within a given productivity group, as well as a clear ranking of premia across different groups. We find supporting evidence using Chinese data.
    Keywords: D83 ; J12 ; J16 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; constrained sequential search ; marriage premium
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-12-04
    Description: We study the effects of a voluntary skill certification scheme in an online freelancing labour market. We show that obtaining skill certificates increases freelancers’ earnings. This effect is not driven by increased freelancer productivity but by decreased employer uncertainty. The increase in freelancer earnings is mostly realised through an increase in the value of the projects won rather than an increase in the number of projects won. Moreover, we find evidence for negative selection to completing skill certificates, which suggests that the freelancers who complete more skill certificates are in a more disadvantaged position in the labour market.
    Keywords: J21 ; J23 ; J24 ; J31 ; I20 ; ddc:330 ; signaling ; human capital ; skill validation ; skill certificates ; micro-credentials ; online freelancing ; platforms ; gig economy ; computer-based assessment
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-12-04
    Description: This paper investigates how high school gender composition affects students’ participation in STEM at college. Using Danish administrative data, we exploit idiosyncratic within-school variation in gender composition. We find that having a larger proportion of female peers reduces women’s probability of enrolling in and graduating from STEM programs. Men’s STEM participation increases with more female peers present. In the long run, women exposed to more female peers are less likely to work in STEM occupations, earn less, and have more children. Our findings show that the school peer environment has lasting effects on occupational sorting, the gender wage gap, and fertility.
    Keywords: I21 ; J16 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; gender ; peer effects ; STEM studies
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-12-04
    Description: We present an equilibrium model with inter-linked frictional labour and marriage markets. Women’s flow value of being single is treated as given, and it captures returns from employment. Single unemployed men conduct a so-called constrained sequential job search, and can choose to improve their labour market returns as well as their marriage prospects by under-taking a costly ex-ante investment in schooling. We establish the existence of market equilibria where a fraction of men get educated, and show that this fraction decreases if women’s labour market returns increase. We also examine the robustness of such equilibria.
    Keywords: D83 ; I26 ; J12 ; J16 ; J31 ; ddc:330 ; frictional markets ; constrained search ; male returns to education
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2019-12-04
    Description: With the ensuing immigration reform in the US, the paper shows that targeted skilled immigration into the R&D sector that helps low-skilled labor is conducive for controlling inequality and raising wage. Skilled talent-led innovation could have spillover benefits for the unskilled sector while immigration into the production sector will always reduce wage, aggravating wage inequality. In essence, we infer: (i) if R&D inputs contributes only to skilled sector, wage inequality increases in general; (ii) for wage gap to decrease, R&D sector must produce inputs that goes into unskilled manufacturing sector; (iii) even with two types of specific R&D inputs entering into the skilled and unskilled sectors separately, unskilled labor is not always benefited by high skilled migrants into R&D-sector. Rather, it depends on the importance of migrants’ skill in R&D activities and intensity of inputs. Inclusive immigration policy requires inter-sectoral diffusion of ideas embedded in talented immigrants targeted for innovation. Empirical verification using a VAR regression model in the context of the USA confirms the conjectures, and the empirical results substantiates our policy-guided hypothesis that skilled immigration facilitates innovation with favorable impact on reducing wage-gap.
    Keywords: F22 ; J31 ; O15 ; ddc:330 ; H1B ; immigration ; innovation ; wage gap ; skill ; R&D ; policy ; RAISE Act ; VAR
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: Electricity is a general purpose technology and the catalyst for the second industrial revolution. Developing countries are currently making huge investments in electrification, with a view to achieving structural change. What does history say about its impact on the structure of employment? We use U.S. Census data from 1910 to 1940 and measure electrification with the length of higher-voltage electricity lines. Instrumenting for electrification using hydroelectric potential, we find that the average expansion of high-voltage transmission lines between 1910 and 1940 increased the share of operatives in a county by 3.3 percentage points and decreased the share of farmers by 2.1 percentage points. Electrification can explain 50.5% of the total increase in operatives, and 18.1% of the total decrease in farmers between 1910 and 1940. At the industry level, electrification drove 15.7% of the decline in the share of agricultural employment and 28.4% of the increase in the share of manufacturing employment between 1910 and 1940. Electrification was thus a key driver of structural transformation in the U.S. economy.
    Keywords: E25 ; E22 ; J24 ; J31 ; N32 ; N72 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; technological change ; electrification ; structural change
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  • 43
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: To what extent can technological advances in the production of capital account for the recent, worldwide decline in the labor income share? We pose two challenges to the automation narrative: first, estimates of the elasticity of substitution (EOS) between capital and labor tend to fall below or around one, suggesting that a decline in the price of capital should not lead to a decline in the labor income share. Second, we illustrate that, despite technological improvements, the price of capital relative to output has remained roughly constant, worldwide. This poses a challenge to the view that cheaper capital has caused the displacement of workers. We show that a more nuanced approach, which takes seriously the composition of capital, ascribes a prominent role to the automation hypothesis. Though information and communications (ICT) capital is a small fraction of the capital stock, it is highly substitutable with labor, and its user cost declined sharply over the last few decades. A framework that distinguishes between ICT and non-ICT capital is empirically plausible and suggests that automation accounts for more than one quarter of the global decline in the labor share, even if the aggregate EOS is substantially less than unity.
    Keywords: E25 ; E22 ; J24 ; J31 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; technological change ; labor share ; ICT
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  • 44
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: We investigate how negatively reciprocal traits of unemployed individuals interact with "sticks" policies imposing constraints on individual job search effort in the context of the German welfare system. For this we merge survey data of long-term unemployed individuals, containing indicators of reciprocity as a personality trait, to a unique set of register data on all unemployed coached by the same team of caseworkers and their treatments. We find that the combination of a higher negative reciprocity and a stricter regime have a negative interaction effect on search effort exerted by the unemployed. The results are stronger for males than for females. Stricter regimes may therefore drive long-term unemployed males with certain types of social preferences further away from the labor market.
    Keywords: D90 ; J16 ; J24 ; J64 ; N44 ; ddc:330 ; behavioral response ; active labor market policy ; monitoring ; welfare ; job search
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: We run a field experiment to quantify the economic returns to data and informational ex-ternalities associated with algorithmic recommendation relative to human curation in the context of online news. Our results show that personalized recommendation can outperform human curation in terms of user engagement, though this crucially depends on the amount of personal data. Limited individual data or breaking news leads the editor to outperform the algorithm. Additional data helps algorithmic performance but diminishing economic returns set in rapidly. Investigating informational externalities highlights that personalized recommendation reduces consumption diversity. Moreover, users associated with lower levels of digital literacy and more extreme political views engage more with algorithmic recommendations.
    Keywords: L82 ; L51 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; field experiment ; economics of AI ; returns to data ; filter bubbles
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2020-03-25
    Description: This paper empirically investigates the long-run effects of major health improvements on income growth in the United States. To isolate exogenous changes in health, the econometric model uses quasi-experimental variation in cardiovascular disease mortality across states over time. The results show that there is a causal link between health and income per person, and they provide novel evidence that health dynamics shape life-cycle incomes. Compared to previous generations, life-cycle income profiles slope more strongly at the beginning and at the end of work life, such that age becomes a more prominent determinant of income dynamics. The channels for this transformation include better health, higher educational attainment, and changing labor supply.
    Keywords: I15 ; J11 ; J24 ; J31 ; O40 ; ddc:330 ; age ; mortality ; life expectancy ; productivity ; education ; labor supply
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  • 47
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-14
    Description: With the ensuing immigration reform in the US, the paper shows that targeted skilled immigration into the R&D sector that helps low-skilled labor is conducive for controlling inequality and raising wage. Skilled talent-led innovation could have spillover benefits for the unskilled sector while immigration into the production sector will always reduce wage, aggravating wage inequality. In essence, we infer: (i) if R&D inputs contributes only to skilled sector, wage inequality increases in general; (ii) for wage gap to decrease, R&D sector must produce inputs that goes into unskilled manufacturing sector; (iii) even with two types of specific R&D inputs entering into the skilled and unskilled sectors separately, unskilled labor is not always benefited by high skilled migrants into R&D-sector. Rather, it depends on the importance of migrants’ skill in R&D activities and intensity of inputs. Inclusive immigration policy requires inter-sectoral diffusion of ideas embedded in talented immigrants targeted for innovation.
    Keywords: F22 ; J31 ; O15 ; ddc:330 ; HIB ; immigration ; innovation ; wage gap ; skill ; R&D ; policy ; RAISE Act
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  • 48
    Publication Date: 2018-07-14
    Description: We investigate the welfare implications of two pre-crisis immigration waves (1991–2000 and 2001–2010) and of the post-crisis wave (2011–2015) for OECD native citizens. To do so, we develop a general equilibrium model that accounts for the main channels of transmission of immigration shocks – the employment and wage effects, the fiscal effect, and the market size effect – and for the interactions between them. We parameterize our model for 20 selected OECD member states. We find that the three waves induce positive effects on the real income of natives, however the size of these gains varies considerably across countries and across skill groups. In relative terms, the post-crisis wave induces smaller welfare gains compared to the previous ones. This is due to the changing origin mix of immigrants, which translates into lower levels of human capital and smaller fiscal gains. However, differences across cohorts explain a tiny fraction of the highly persistent, cross-country heterogeneity in the economic benefits from immigration.
    Keywords: C68 ; F22 ; J24 ; ddc:330 ; immigration ; welfare ; crisis ; inequality ; general equilibrium
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-14
    Description: This paper investigates how the size of co-ethnic networks at the time of arrival affect the economic success of immigrants in Germany. Applying panel analysis with a large set of fixed effects and controls, we isolate the association between initial network size and long-run immigrant outcomes. We also look at those who were assigned to an initial location independently of their choice allows a causal interpretation of our estimates. We find that immigrants initially located in places with larger co-ethnic networks are more likely to be employed at first, but have a lower probability of investing in human capital.
    Keywords: J24 ; J61 ; R23 ; ddc:330 ; networks ; immigration ; human capital ; employment
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-14
    Description: The role of women in Western societies changed dramatically in the 20th century. We study how political empowerment affected women’s emancipation as reflected in their life choices like marital decisions and labor market participation. The staggered introduction of female suffrage in Swiss states allows us to exploit the variation in the age women experienced enfranchisement to estimate the differences in life choices between women who were socialized in a world where women had a formal say in politics and those who were mainly socialized before. Our empirical findings document that political empowerment strongly increased female labor force participation, weakened marital bonds and motivated human capital investment. Moreover, being socialized with female suffrage increased long-term voting participation and perceptions of control. Our evidence suggests that changes in formal political institutions hold the power to change norms.
    Keywords: D02 ; D72 ; J12 ; J16 ; J22 ; J24 ; Z13 ; ddc:330 ; female suffrage ; voting rights ; institutions ; norms ; female labor force participation ; marital choices ; voting participation ; efficacy
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-07-14
    Description: Comparing cohorts born between 1951 and 1994, we document and interpret changes in the wage differential among graduates from secondary education with a vocational and a general curriculum.. The wage gap initially increased and then decreased. We find that these changes cannot be attributed to simple compositional shifts in the economy, but instead relate to important changes in worker allocation to firms that are heterogeneous in wage policies: the demise of assortative matching between workers and firms that worked out favourably for vocational graduates.
    Keywords: J31 ; I26 ; ddc:330 ; returns to education ; vocational wage gap
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
    Language: English
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  • 52
    Publication Date: 2018-08-16
    Description: We structurally estimate an equilibrium search model using German administrative data and use this for counterfactual analyses of a uniform minimum wage. The model with worker and firm heterogeneity does not restrict the sign of employment effects a priori and allows for different job offer arrival rates for the employed and the unemployed. We find that unemployment is a non-monotonic function of the minimum wage level. Effects differ strongly by labour market segment. Cross-segment variation of the estimated effects is mostly driven by firm productivity levels rather than by search frictions or the opportunity cost of employment.
    Keywords: J31 ; J51 ; J64 ; ddc:330 ; wages ; job durations ; work ; employment ; productivity ; structural estimation
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 53
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-08-16
    Description: How skills acquired in vocational education and training (VET) affect wages and employment is not clear. We develop and estimate a search and matching model for workers with a VET degree. Workers differ in interpersonal, cognitive and manual skills, while firms require and value different combinations of these skills. Assuming that match productivity exhibits worker-job complementarity, we estimate how interpersonal, cognitive and manual skills map into job offers, unemployment and wages. We find that firms value cognitive skills on average almost twice as much as interpersonal and manual skills, and they prize complementarity in cognitive and interpersonal skills. The average return to VET skills in hourly wages is 9%, similar to the returns to schooling. Furthermore, VET appears to improve labour market opportunities through higher job arrival rate and lower job destruction. Workers thus have large benefits from acquiring a VET degree.
    Keywords: E24 ; J23 ; J24 ; J64 ; ddc:330 ; occupational training ; vocational education ; labor market search ; sorting ; multidimensional skills
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 54
    Publication Date: 2018-07-14
    Description: The gap in university enrollment by parental education is large and persistent in many countries. In our representative survey, 74 percent of German university graduates, but only 36 percent of those without a university degree favor a university education for their children. The latter are more likely to underestimate returns and overestimate costs of university. Experimental provision of return and cost information significantly increases educational aspirations. However, it does not close the aspiration gap as university graduates respond even more strongly to the information treatment. Persistent effects in a follow-up survey indicate that participants indeed process and remember the information. Differences in economic preference parameters also cannot account for the educational aspiration gap. Our results cast doubt that ignorance of economic returns and costs explains educational inequality in Germany.
    Keywords: D83 ; I24 ; J24 ; H75 ; ddc:330 ; inequality ; higher education ; university ; aspiration ; information ; returns to education ; survey experiment
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 55
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-27
    Description: This study estimates the effect of compulsory schooling on earnings. For identification, I exploit a German reform that extended the duration of secondary schooling in the 1960s. I find that hourly wages increase by 6%-8% per additional year of schooling. This result challenges prior findings for Germany of zero returns to schooling, obtained by using the same survey data and reform. I show that the earlier estimates suffer from unconsidered institutional details. A complementary analysis using social security records confirms significant effects on earnings, but yields no effects on employment and take-up of public transfers.
    Keywords: I21 ; I26 ; J31 ; ddc:330
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 56
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-27
    Description: A fast-growing literature shows that digital technologies are displacing labor from routine tasks, raising concerns that labor is racing against the machine. We develop a task-based framework to estimate the aggregate labor demand and employment effects of routine-replacing technological change (RRTC), along with the underlying mechanisms. We show that while RRTC has indeed had strong displacement effects in the European Union between 1999 and 2010, it has simultaneously created new jobs through increased product demand, outweighing displacement effects and resulting in net employment growth. However, we also show that this finding depends on the distribution of gains from technological progress.
    Keywords: E24 ; J23 ; J24 ; O33 ; ddc:330 ; labor demand ; employment ; routine-replacing technological change ; tasks ; local demand spillovers
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics
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  • 57
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    Munich: Center for Economic Studies and Ifo Institute (CESifo)
    Publication Date: 2018-11-27
    Description: We propose a regression-adjusted matched difference-in-differences framework to estimate non-pecuniary returns to adult education. This approach combines kernel matching with entropy balancing to account for selection bias and sorting on gains. Using data from the German SOEP, we evaluate the effect of work-related training, which represents the largest portion of adult education in OECD countries, on individual social capital. Training increases participation in civic, political, and cultural activities while not crowding out social participation. Results are robust against a variety of potentially confounding explanations. These findings imply positive externalities from work-related training over and above the well documented labor market effects.
    Keywords: J24 ; I21 ; M53 ; ddc:330 ; non-pecuniary returns ; social capital ; work-related training ; matched difference-in-differences approach ; entropy balancing
    Repository Name: EconStor: OA server of the German National Library of Economics - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics